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Forecasting
the Future
Future Summit @
Telecom World 2014
Innovating together:
ITU celebrates 150 years
LS telcom Training Academy -
Expert Knowledge combined
with Practical Experience
ITU
Vision in the way we tackle ITU’s priorities, as defined by our
members at the Plenipotentiary Conference in the Republic of Korea;
Action in our efforts to energetically execute and implement these
priorities to the satisfaction of those members;
And Harmony in our approach to collaborating with an increasingly wide range of actors in today’s
fast‑moving, fast-growing information and communication technology (ICT) sector.
I look forward to leading the Union towards an even brighter future at the heart of the ICT sector —
and especially so in this, the ITU’s 150th anniversary year. Indeed, 2015 promises to be another exciting and
productive year committed to serving the needs of our membership, and we look forward to engaging with
Member States, Sector Members, Associates and Academia at many prominent ITU events during the year,
including: Council 2015, in Geneva, from 12 to 22 May; the WSIS Forum, also in Geneva, from 25 to 29 May;
the Global Symposium for Regulators, in Gabon, from 9 to 11 June; ITU Telecom World 2015, in Budapest,
from 12 to 15 October; Radiocommunication Assembly 2015, in Geneva, in the last week of October; the World
Radiocommunication Conference 2015, which will take place in Geneva right through the month of November;
and the World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Symposium, in Japan, in December.
Throughout the year, we will be celebrating 150 years of international cooperation among governments,
private companies, academia and other stakeholders, with the main celebrations taking place during the 2015
Session of ITU Council, in Geneva, on 17 May. Let me take this opportunity to warmly invite you all to join in
the ITU’s 150th Anniversary celebrations, and also to nominate candidates for the special ITU 150 Awards.
Nominations are open until 15 March 2015, and I strongly encourage your candidatures.
In closing, let me acknowledge the vital role of young innovators, entrepreneurs, small- and medium-
sized enterprises (SMEs), start‑ups and technology hubs as drivers of innovative and practical ICT solutions
for accelerating the Connect 2020 agenda that was approved by membership at the 2014 Plenipotentiary
Conference, and increasing connectivity and delivering the greatest benefits to developing countries.
© ITU/J. Leguerre
1 Editorial
Exciting times ahead in 2015
Houlin Zhao, ITU Secretary‑General
ISSN 1020–4148
itunews.itu.int
6 issues per year
Copyright: © ITU 2015 4 Top tech predictions
Editor-in-Chief: Phillippa Biggs
Art Editor: Christine Vanoli
Editorial Assistant: Angela Smith
Circulation Assistant: Albert Sebgarshad 7 ITU Telecom World 2014
Printed in Geneva by the ITU Printing Viewpoints from Doha
and Dispatch Division. Material from this
publication may be reproduced in full or in
part, provided that it is accompanied by the
acknowledgement: ITU News. 15 Leader Interview with Denis O’Brien
Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this
publication are those of the authors and
Founder and Chairman of Digicel Group
do not engage ITU. The designations
employed and presentation of material in this
publication, including maps, do not imply the
expression of any opinion whatsoever on the 18 The great telco conundrum
part of ITU concerning the legal status of any Contributed by Chris Lewis of Lewis Insight Consulting
country, territory, city or area, or concerning
the delimitations of its frontiers or boundaries.
The mention of specific companies or of
certain products does not imply that they
are endorsed or recommended by ITU in 21 WTIS 2014: Indicators symposium
preference to others of a similar nature that recognizes progress in ICT development
are not mentioned.
Mailing address:
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Note from
the Editor
In 2016, ITU News
will be moving to a
fully digital format.
The New Year is characterized by a crop of telecom Convergence is strongly evident, with many forecasts for
predictions from many research firms and major consultancies. telecom crossing over into the domain of information technology
This short article briefly summarizes a few key trends apparent (IT), while telecom network issues are increasingly feeding back into
from this year’s projections. For 2015, many of the forecasts the IT and Internet domains (consider the ongoing debate over net
coming from major research companies include the growth of neutrality). The International Data Corporation (IDC) projects that
mobile and next-generation software, cloud computing, the global IT and telecom spending together will grow by 3.8% over the
Internet of Things, and of course, social media and big data. course of 2015 to around USD 3.8 trillion for the year.
A number of analysts have also concentrated on the impact of Indeed, many of IDC’s 2015 telecom predictions focus on the
technological changes on firms or on consumers. changing role of the telco in a converging industry, exploring
how telcos will move into API business, value-added services, pre-
cision mobile advertising, managed security services, and adopt
network virtualization to improve their profit margins.
This is in line with many of the outcomes from ITU’s may reach USD 3 trillion by 2020). In contrast to many analysts
Leadership Summit: The Future in Focus, where one keynote who foresee a large part of the IoT as comprising wireless sensor
speaker suggested that every company may effectively become networks, IDC sees the “industrial Internet of Things” as a mainly
a software company in one way or another in future (see the fixed-line phenomenon for the immediate future, forecasting that
separate article on ITU Telecom World 2014). fixed-line networks are expected to carry over 90% of traffic for the
Both Ovum and Infonetics explore the slowdown in telecom industrial IoT.
revenues, especially in Europe. According to Infonetics, global Ericsson ConsumerLab’s annual report considers IoT from a
mobile service revenue for the first half of 2014 rose barely 0.5% consumer’s perspective, suggesting that consumers want technol-
over the same period in 2013. However, Infonetics injects a positive ogy and connectivity to be integrated into all facets of their daily life.
note insofar as mobile data services (text messaging and mobile Ericsson also sees 2015 as a pivot point between streamed video
broadband) rose in every region, thanks to the increasing use of and broadcast TV, and predicts that, for the first time, consumers
smartphones, and forecasts that the datacom market should con- will watch more streamed video than broadcast TV in 2015. PC Mag
tinue to be healthy in 2015. expects wearables to become “probably” the most popular category
According to Ovum (the research arm of Informa), mobile in tech in 2015.
subscriptions will grow to 8.5 billion by the end of 2019. ITU “Intelligence” is another widely used word, although opinions
predicts the number of Internet users will exceed 3 billion in 2015. differ as to who — or more accurately, what — is becoming more
WeAreSocial/Internet World Stats forecasts that mobile will help intelligent. For IDC, it is the networks. For others, it is our entire
push Internet penetration beyond 50% of the world’s population connected environment. For GP Bullhound, a boutique investment
during late 2016, with some 2.7 billion smartphone “connections” bank specializing in technology companies, it is the smart devices
worldwide (it is not altogether clear whether this means subscrip- in IoT which are becoming more intelligent, thanks to innovation in
tions or actively used phones). In their authoritative “Technology, software and better utilization of data. From GP Bullhound’s point
Media and Telecommunications (TMT) Predictions report”, Deloitte of view, wearable devices (such as Fitbit and Jawbone) have proven
predicts that 1.4 billion smartphones will sell worldwide in 2015, helpful in tracking real-world activity and generating data, but they
with smartphone sales exceeding the sales of the PC, television, generally require too much input from consumers to make them
tablets and game console sectors combined in terms of both units genuinely “intelligent”. More advanced devices will run always-on,
and revenues. As mobile devices proliferate, Gartner predicts a context-aware applications in the background, which will automati-
shift in focus towards serving the needs of users in diverse contexts cally collect data from multiple sources, adapt, learn, update and, in
and environments, rather than just the features and functionality some cases, take action without inputs or guidance from users.
of devices. Gartner foresees that phones and wearable devices Some commentators take this a step further, suggesting that
will form part of an expanding computing environment (including mobile traffic patterns and network loads are altering in response to
consumer electronics and connected screens). network-initiated service requests (as found with smartphones via
And it is not just humans who are getting connected. Many Long-Term Evolution (LTE) networks, for example). Mobile opera-
analysts agree that the Internet of Things (IoT) is coming of age, tors may need to review their network architecture, topology, and
and foresee strong growth in IoT in their predictions. Deloitte functionality to carry 4G traffic successfully, while providing good
forecasts that, in 2015, one billion wireless IoT devices will be customer experience, and bolstering their profit margins. Two things
shipped, up 60% on 2014, resulting in an installed base of 2.8 bil- are certain — innovation and evolution in telecommunication/ICT
lion connected devices by the end of 2015. IDC predicts that IoT networks continue at an exciting pace, and no one can get bored
spending will exceed USD 1.7 trillion, up 14% from 2014 (and watching or working in telecoms!
CONFERENCE PREPARATORY
MEETING FOR WRC-15
CPM 15-2 (Second Session)
GENEVA, SWITZERLAND
23 MARCH - 2 APRIL 2015
www.itu.int/go/ITU-R/CPM Organised by:
Photo credit: Shutterstock®
ITU Telecom World 2014
ITU
Opening Ceremony
ITU Telecom World 2014, a platform from the ICT world: ministers, consultants, Argentina, Azerbaijan, Cameroon, Chad,
for high-level debate, knowledge-sharing policy shapers, leading industry CEOs, China, Hungary, Nigeria, Malaysia, Qatar,
and networking for the global information renowned academics, and futurists. Tanzania, Thailand and Zimbabwe, while
and communication technology (ICT) The show floor highlighted technologies Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan and Rwanda
community, took place on 7–10 December and investment opportunities through the came together within the Smart Africa zone.
2014 in Doha, Qatar. The event was presence of national and thematic pavilions Forum discussions at the event covered the
hosted by the Government of Qatar, and industry showcases. Top global players key trends and developments in technol-
with the support of leading international included Cisco, Huawei, Intel, LS Telcom, ogy, regulatory and policy issues, business
communications company, Ooredoo. It was Nokia, Ooredoo, Rohde & Schwarz, models, services and applications, focus-
attended by a range of well-known figures Vodafone and ZTE, along with countries ing on three major scenarios: disruption,
ITU Telecom World 2014 Opening Ceremony. From left to right: Sheikh Abdullah Bin Mohammed Bin Saud Al Thani,
Chairman of the Board of Directors, Ooredoo, Qatar; Dr Hamadoun I. Touré, ITU Secretary-General (now former
ITU
Secretary-General); and Hessa Sultan Al Jaber, Qatar’s Minister of Information and Communications Technology
cross-sector partnerships and the intelligent proud to host a great number of telco futurists and international experts came
future. Moderators, speakers and panellists corporations as an important hub”. Sheikh together with leaders from public and
spanned a mix of high-level players from Abdullah Bin Mohammed Bin Saud Al private sectors to explore scenarios to
government, as well as all facets of the Thani, Chairman of the Board of Directors, understand how policies, strategies, busi-
industry. Sessions took a variety of different Ooredoo Group, underlined the need for ness models and regulatory approaches
formats from top media-moderated Big partnership: “Among us are many of the might develop.
Conversations to ministerial round tables world’s largest technology companies, Panellists agreed that the world is
and panels. high-ranking government representatives going digital very fast. The convergence of
and policy shapers from across the world, many different strands of technology (such
as well as a new generation of entrepre- as solar technology, bio-tech, nano-tech,
DAY ONE — neurs and app-developers. Feel our power, neurotechnology, 3D printing, sensors and
7 December 2014 our combined experience and know-how. artificial intelligence) is pushing down the
The spectacular Opening Ceremony Together we can make the future happen half-life of an average business compe-
at the Qatar National Convention Centre sooner”. tency from 30 years to 5 years. Three billion
assembled an impressive line-up of high- An exclusive one-day Leadership newly-networked minds coming online
level participants. Sheikh Abdullah bin Summit: Future in Focus offered an are unleashing innovation, creation, and
Nasser bin Khalifa Al Thani, Prime Minister inspiring journey into the future of the ICT disruption, all influenced by local language,
of Qatar, stated, “We are extremely industry, business and society. Renowned culture and context, taking us in new
directions via radically different intermediaries — today, a third Roboy, a next-generation robot, which
of 15–30 year olds get their online news solely from Facebook! offers new and very different insights
into human-robotic interaction and even
The Summit also saw the demonstration of Roboy, a next-
the functioning of the human skeleton
generation robot, which offers new and very different insights into
human-robotic interaction and even the functioning of the human
skeleton. One panellist stated that robots are neither a tool nor
technology, but partners, and may even become competitors.
Alarm was expressed that robots might exploit us as humans,
forcing us to produce successful models in ever greater numbers,
or let less-successful versions die — just like biological evolu-
tion. The real question is not whether we wish to continue with
robots or not — robots are already here, in large numbers — but
whether we can guide their development without being overrun:
will robots understand us or scare us?
The Summit agreed that policy-makers need to stay abreast of
a huge range of upcoming technological developments in order to
respond with adequate strategies. However, panellists expressed
concerns over the growing gap between the pace of technological
change and that of regulatory evolution. Telcos’ core business now
goes far beyond simply providing connectivity — competitors now
come from a number of other industries (see article on The great
telco conundrum). Today, change is the norm, rather than stability.
Telcos must manage data and become a trusted custodian of con-
sumers’ data, creating a new class of economic asset, while keep-
ing data safe and secure. New issues are arising as to who owns
the data, and whether/how to regulate the use of others’ data.
In the future, according to one keynote speaker, every company
may become a software company.
There were also debates on Natural disasters, the Road to
5G and LTE standardization. The challenge in 5G is to build an
effective ecosystem with cells, machines, connected devices and
backhaul. In theory, 5G could enable all Seoul’s subway pas-
sengers to watch HDTV channels simultaneously. However, most
future uses of 5G are still unknown, and network management is
complex. LTE standardization should include best-practice knowl-
edge from countries already using it — such as Qatar, where
LTE was introduced three years ago as a pilot for data and video.
The first day also witnessed Vodafone’s launch of Qatar’s first
ITU
virtual store, and a record-breaking speed governments should not see telco revenues for decades — one might be ahead of the
demo of 4.1 Gbps over TDD-FDD LTE by as an easy target. other at different points, but players are
Nokia Networks, Ooredoo Qatar and China The session, “A regulator’s night- investing, and the interoperability needed
Mobile, enabling mobile users to download mare”, emphasized that regulation must for public networks will follow”. Who owns
a full-length 5 GB high-definition movie in strike a balance between rules and flex- data, and who keeps it secure? Security
11 seconds, while uploading a 5‑minute ibility. At the session, “A call to arms for mechanisms are present in each layer, but
30 MB video clip in under a second. regulators”, it was agreed that regulation panellists expressed concerns that the cloud
must be enabling, not controlling, and is not yet secure overall.
focused on best practice in a local context. At the session on Convergence of
DAY TWO — One panellist urged regulators to work dif- broadcasting and broadband, participants
8 December 2014 ferently, considering the public institutions debated differences between broadcast-
At the session on Affordable interna- and users of ICT services rather than focus- ing at once to many (for example, for
tional backhaul, there was broad agree- ing on operators and suppliers. Regional major events where a big peak in traffic
ment on policy frameworks to promote ICTs, regulation is complex — for example, is expected at a fixed time) versus broad-
including support for local IXPs, promotion there is no single view among 23 European band for events where fewer people may
of demand, and market liberalization. regulatory authorities on how market watch at any given moment. The session
Participants emphasized the importance of consolidation should be addressed. As the on the Digital dividend underlined the
getting a balance of technologies, lever- Internet of Things (IoT) develops, policy- role of broadcasting as a uniter of people
aging submarine cable, terrestrial fibre, makers must allow the private sector to versus the Internet, and it was suggested
satellite, and access technologies from Wi-Fi experiment before establishing any regula- that it would be a mistake to predict that
to WiMAX, drones to balloons, in a mix that tory framework, or risk closing down viable broadcasting will eventually be displaced.
makes sense in each individual market. solutions. The panel agreed on the need for According to Ericsson, there will be 50 bil-
Open access is likely to differ in each coun- “collaboration, balance, and working across lion connected devices by 2020, of which
try, depending on market structure. Open the entire ecosystem”. 15 billion will be connected via video.
access must extend across broadband value The session on Networks in the cloud Content-on-demand will become the norm,
chains to include data centres, servers and emphasized the many different touch points changing consumer behaviour. The market
transport. of cloud and telcos, from software defined for mobile broadband is very competitive,
The session on Broadband roll-out networking (SDN), network virtualization, but it is unclear that revenues will increase
in emerging economies saw participants cloud platforms for enterprises, software in line with traffic.
debating universal access and it was developers and API platforms, with different The session on Financing the net-
underlined how broadband can underpin types of intersection between the network works of the future heard how data
vibrant local economies and combat rural- and the cloud. It is vital for operators and consumption is exploding, driven by smart-
urban migration. In Indonesia, a proportion regulators to distinguish between the dif- phone penetration of over 1500 devices per
of telco revenue is paid as spectrum fees ferent types and their implications to avoid square kilometre in the world’s 400 biggest
into a universal service fund; however, the confusion. The incoming Director of the ITU cities. The IoT could multiply traffic by a
fund’s rules are rigorous and few funds have Standardization Sector (ITU–T), Chaesub factor of thirty by 2017, while cloud could
been paid out. Participants emphasized that Lee, was optimistic that “the market and result in a 440% increase over the same
standards will work out, as they have done period. Massive network investments are
needed to cope with demand in wireless, although there are different routes to this clear commitment that “I will do my best to
wireline or backhaul networks. However, same destination. strengthen cooperation between industry
this need for investment comes at a time and ITU”. ITU Telecom World 2014 convenes
of decreasing revenues, bandwidth-hungry stakeholders from government, industry,
Over-The-Top (OTT) players and outdated DAY THREE — manufacturers, and app developers to
data connection agreements, leaving the 9 December 2014 explore how parties can work together to
industry reluctant to invest in network In a session on Cross-sector partner- satisfy customers and sustain business.
upgrades. What can be done? One possible ships, ITU Secretary-General Houlin Zhao Discussions focused on changing roles for
answer is passive infrastructure sharing. The (Deputy Secretary-General at the time of telcos in a converged landscape — should
panel agreed that ensuring the sustain- the Telecom event), reminded participants telcos compete or cooperate with new
ability of the whole ICT ecosystem calls for that “collaboration has always been of great players? There is an opportunity for telcos
new innovative solutions and new ways of importance to growth in any endeavour to become trusted custodians of data from
solving the connectivity dilemma in times or industry — nowhere is that more true multiple silos. The session on Telco innova-
of disruption. Broadband is the destination, than in the ICT sector”. He concluded with a tion opened with a quote from Bill Gates:
showfloor
“Banking is important; banks are not” — described how corporate social responsibil- and ICT, Jean Philbert Nsengimana, hopes it
can the same be said of telcos? Historically, ity (CSR) projects are empowering societies. will position Africa as a global leader in the
innovation for telcos has often not come The session on “Scarce resource or ICT space: “Africa missed the economic revo-
from telcos. Operators often talk about shared resource?” saw mobile and satel- lution and the industrial revolution,” he said,
innovation mainly for B2C, when the most lite representatives stake their claims to “but it will not miss the knowledge revolu-
dynamic area may in fact be enterprise B2B. the hotly-contested C-band, and debate tion”. Uganda’s Minister of Information and
With regard to the IT-ization of whether sharing is a viable option. The Communications Technology, John Nasasira,
telecom networks, panellists described panel concluded that sharing in some focused on making Internet access afforda-
how networks are becoming all-IP, while format is likely to happen, and it is down ble to all African citizens and explained that
functions virtualized and network topol- to national administrations to decide how, sacrifices must be made in terms of public
ogy become more distributed. Mini-clouds when and which spectrum sharing can take sector revenue to achieve affordability.
cache content and host key functions. place. Each region or nation has its own Day three also saw the launch of the
Network Functions Virtualization (NFV) and very specific context, market and require- Global Cybersecurity Index 2014, jointly
Software-Defined Networking (SDN) are ments in this regard. prepared by ITU and the consulting firm
game-changers, although the main players Makame Mbarawa, Tanzania’s ABI Research. The United States took top
within network virtualization are still tier Minister of Communications, Science and position, with Canada coming in a close
one United States and European opera- Technology, related how the National second. Three countries shared third place
tors. SDN gives customers the opportunity ICT Broadband Backbone has enabled — Oman, Australia and Malaysia — while
to have their own network worldwide. Tanzania to become a regional ICT hub, New Zealand and Norway ranked fourth.
Operators have a “sense of urgency” in with 7560 km of fibre optic cable laid to Brazil, Estonia, Germany, India, Japan, the
adopting this to respond to competition and neighbouring countries. Tanzania has nearly Republic of Korea and the United Kingdom
network problems — the question is not if, completed the digital transition, with only were joint fifth. Several countries were high-
but when. three cities left to migrate, and is poised lighted for their commitment to cybersecu-
The session on Big Data for develop- to become one of Africa’s first fully digital rity, including Turkey and Rwanda.
ment described how vast amounts of data countries. President and CEO of Ideas Africa,
traffic are generated by consumers each Lolia Emakpore launched the aSMART
day (the equivalent of 360 000 DVDs every Summit, supported by the Commonwealth DAY FOUR —
minute), which is often viewed as a liability. Telecommunications Organisation (CTO), 10 December 2014
Big data analytics can show what has the West Africa Telecommunication The final day saw closing debates
happened in the past — i.e. in monitor- Regulators Assembly (WATRA) and on the Internet of Things (IoT). Will IoT
ing migrations and/or epidemics. Further Nigeria’s National Information Technology prove a nirvana of connectivity, or will the
research may reveal why, or predict what Development Agency (NITDA), and invited dream be derailed by issues of privacy and
can happen in the future. Large amounts attendees of ITU Telecom World to get security? In the debate on our Intelligent
of data are already in the public domain, involved with aSMART. Future, François Rancy, Director of the ITU
from government censuses surveying The high-profile SMART Africa initia- Radiocommunication Bureau, emphasized
ethnicity and religion to detailed household tive was represented by four participating that IoT is not new — it is the scale of con-
surveys and rich social media. The ses- countries — Rwanda, Kenya, Uganda and nectivity that is changing, underpinned by
sion on Community-driven partnerships South Sudan. Rwanda’s Minister of Youth mobile networks and spectrum.
ITU
According to some estimates, IoT could and regulation of data. Panellists agreed already been around for a long time, while
be worth USD 19 trillion between 2013 and that there is little danger of companies many people may not even know they have
2023. Machine-to-machine (M2M) commu- developing devices within the ecosystem been using it.
nication devices have overtaken smart- crossing over to become operators: the However, when many devices commu-
phones as the fastest-growing category of telecommunication industry is heavily nicate, security and privacy issues become a
network with IP addresses, with 221 billion regulated. cause for concern. Security is a major issue
connected devices projected by 2018. IoT The next debate questioned whether when all kinds of data can be represented in
has huge implications for chips, sensors and IoT will be a panacea or fuel paranoia. the cloud. Global regulation on data privacy
IT cloud connectivity. However, panellists Some players are greeting IoT warmly. can prove difficult, as there are so many
identified gaps in reality versus expecta- Others are more cautious, believing that its differences between countries’ regulatory
tions, and the pace of industry versus that of appeal depends on what is done with that frameworks — and telcos have to adhere
regulatory bodies. One panellist suggested information generated by IoT. The session to local policies. One panellist compared IoT
we have not yet come very far towards IoT. began with the panel’s thoughts on IoT, and with Pandora’s Box — there are frequent
The panel debated whether the best naturally, migrated to issues around security catastrophic security breaches, with the
approach lies in combining ICT regulators and privacy. On the upside, IoT enables industry and technology playing catch up.
with national and international bodies energy suppliers to install smart meters People may have a right to privacy;
overseeing other industries, or in appoint- on cell sites to monitor consumption and however, privacy is a cultural construct,
ing a sole data regulator to govern the use reduce carbon emissions. Indeed, IoT has which is difficult to define for regulatory
Innovation
The future of innovation was showcased
at the event in the Lab and by winners of
the Young Innovators competition. Social
entrepreneurs between ages 18–30 from
around the world highlighted innovative
digital solutions with positive social impact.
In addition to the humanoid robot
Roboy, further examples of innovation
in action could be seen in the Lab on the
ITU
Leader Interview
with Denis O’Brien
the business case. The e‑health plans we are talking Reza — So the main point is that the broadband
about are heavily dependent on mobile operators. ecosystem needs to be sustainable — operators
Generally, right now in developing countries in Africa, cannot build the infrastructure and let others
around 25% of operators’ revenues are re-invested in come and “have a party in your house”?
capital expenditure (capex) in infrastructure, over which
the OTT players and content providers generally have a Denis — It is a balancing act. The regulators in Africa,
free ride. In my view, the telecom operators are on their Asia, South America and the Caribbean all say they want
own — there needs to be a contribution from over-the- everyone to have access to broadband. Once people
top (OTT) content and applications providers — such as have broadband access, they are able to gain access to
Google, Facebook, WhatsApp and Skype — which are all the other services. In Burkina Faso, it is unrealistic to
offering services over telecommunication networks and project that 90% of the territory will ever be covered by
gaining revenue, without contributing to the costs of Long Term Evolution (LTE) or 4G broadband networks.
the new networks. Satellite access could be a good alternative solution and
In my view, net neutrality is great for those living is not very expensive.
in the United States, but not for those living in Africa In Africa, one million health workers are needed
— it means that Silicon Valley can ride across the just to stand still. Professor Jeffrey Sachs (Director of
networks in other countries free of charge, without the Earth Institute at Columbia University, United
making much financial contribution. The United States, and Special Adviser to United Nations Secretary-
States Federal Communication Commission got General Ban Ki‑moon) is playing a key role in this.
4–5 million hits on its website in a couple of days We said we would do something to support
following the recent interventions on net neutrality. health workers with connectivity in Haiti. The telecom
This issue was significant in the mid-term elections at operators should give the capacity free of charge. You
the start of November, and will be significant in the are only looking at modest connectivity — costing
presidential elections in the countdown to 2016. around 10 Euro per month. This is not a cash purchase,
and would not affect cash flow, where the capacity
already exists. It is rather like an airline seat that goes
empty from New York to Dublin — network capacity
is perishable daily. It is up to the telecom operators
to be responsible citizens and provide these modest
capacity requirements to Jeffrey Sachs for free.
I think Haiti has made great progress. In a way, the Reza — Can we take the lessons learned in Haiti
tragic earthquake has actually helped move the country and apply these lessons to Africa for public-
on. There are lots of different organizations including private partnerships (PPPs)? And what is the
non-governmental organizations (NGOs) on the ground role of government to incentivize you?
now, such as Mercy Corps, Concern Worldwide, and
Partners in Health — the most important thing in a Denis — There is a practice among some emerging
country like Haiti is working through the government market governments about selling spectrum and new
ministries. There is a core group of NGOs — Haiti now licenses for vast amounts of money. Governments
has a functioning health service. The biggest issue and regulators see telecom operators as profitable
is jobs — 35% of people do not have a job. Haiti is businesses. There was a recent spectrum auction in
heavily dependent on Venezuela, which gives Haiti Nigeria for a considerable amount of money — money
oil supplies at a preferential rate. The government that is taken out of the industry in spectrum fees. In
budget in 2014 was 3 billion USD for a country with Ireland, we sold spectrum licenses for 300 million Euros
over ten million people. The key challenge is attracting in a developed country. For developing countries, I don’t
foreign direct investment (FDI) into Haiti. How do you think there should be any charge. I think it is much
get manufacturing jobs into Haiti? Digicel, directly better to impose contractual obligations on operators
and indirectly, employs 35 000 people. When we put a to roll out the networks quickly, and if operators fail to
new staff training course up on our internal website, deliver, then by all means, penalize the operators for not
there is tremendous interest — everyone signs up. fulfilling the contractual obligations they signed up to.
There is a real hunger for personal advancement. One
person earning a salary is likely to be looking after
10–15 family members. Haiti now has a really good Reza — It has been a great opportunity to
Government — they have a President and a Prime talk with you, thank you very much.
Minister who really want to improve the standard of
living of ordinary people and move the country forward. Denis — Thank you. And just to mention in closing,
I was just reading the profiles of all the different
organizations represented here. It is the power of the
200 people in this room, not their organizations, that
matters.
This interview originally took place at the GETHealth Summit in Dublin, Ireland.
ITU News gratefully acknowledges the kind permission of Denis O’Brien
to reproduce excerpts from the interview.
Death of the cash cow? and mobile operators (cable operators and “altnets” still enjoying
This article summarizes the key takeaways from “The Great a positive relationship between revenue and investment, for the
Telco Debate” workshop, held in London on 7 November 2014, time being). Ernst & Young have stated that “failing to shift business
and attended by a range of telecom and IT experts and consult- models is the biggest risk currently facing telcos”.
ants. Discussions focused on how “telcos” will evolve in the future, The broadband ecosystem now comprises very different types
and the key factors driving the industry. Telecommunications and of players competing to offer the same — or similar — services.
connectivity are fast becoming the basis for the delivery of many Market capitalizations vary widely for these different types of
different types of services, while driving massive disruption in how players (see Figure 2). Market valuations for OTTs are only loosely
the market delivers services — for example, Skype is disinterme- connected to revenues (see left chart, Figure 2) and operative profit
diating voice, while Netflix is disintermediating Sky. The global (see right chart, Figure 2), reflecting a shift in value from telcos
telecom market is currently estimated at a total of USD 1.67 tril- to digital content providers and OTT players within the telecom-
lion (the breakdown of which is shown in Figure 1), growing at munication value chain. Telcos have traditionally been valued
1–2% overall per year, driven mainly by expansion in China and
emerging markets.
However, all is not rosy in telecommunications. Revenues for
Global telecommunication market, 2013
fixed-line and mobile operators are falling in Europe, largely due 1 Total USD 1.67 trillion
to regulation and competition. Average revenue per user (ARPU)
is falling across the board (including in China) due to discounting,
TDM voice
with some headline statistics suggesting that the telecommunica- (–0.8% CAGR) IP voice
(7% CAGR)
tion sector was set to lose USD 14 billion revenue in 2014 due to
Mobile data
competition from over-the-top (OTT) players such as WhatsApp and (11% CAGR)
Skype. Traffic volumes are sky-rocketing: according to Diametric Fixed broadband
(6% CAGR)
Analysis, around 1.3 billion people watch online video worldwide
per month, and 450 million people watch online video every day
on average, and capital expenditure (capex) bills are increasing. Mobile voice Other fixed data
(0% CAGR) (3% CAGR)
Keith Willetts (co-founder and Chairman of the Board of Directors of
the TeleManagement Forum) and Tony Poulos (Editor of Disruptive
Views) suggested in their presentation that, although rates of return
CAGR: Compound annual growth rate
on aggregate investment are still positive overall, returns on new TDM: Time division multiplexing
IP: Internet Protocol
investment may be negative. This is creating a conundrum for the
industry to address, which is especially severe for incumbent telcos Source: IDC Worldwide Telecommunication Services Database, 2013.
NTT NTT
Revenue USD billion Operating profit USD billion
0 0
0 45 90 135 180 0 12.5 25 37.5 50
at 6 x EBITDA and 12 x earnings and generally paid dividends now engage in parallel dispersed viewing on demand — consumers
of around 5%. In contrast, social networks are evaluated at 12 x now timeshift (usually previous day) while interacting over a range
revenues. Keith Willetts pointed out that telcos are still stuck in the of devices via Facebook, Twitter and Google. Youngsters consume
you-buy–you-pay model of business. In contrast, OTT players have content today in a fundamentally different way from older genera-
decoupled who buys from who pays through their indirect business tions — people now consume content in bites, not buckets (i.e. by
models and partnering. According to Philip Carse, Lead ICT Analyst individual music songs, not by albums). And in future, according to a
for Megabuyte.com, the Internet revolution is now happening, but quote by Ben Verwaayen, former CEO of Alcatel-Lucent, consumers
this is not reflected in telco valuations — the last time valuations may not even buy services, they will buy transactions.
became so detached from earnings or revenues was just before the
dot.com boom!
For consumers, video (including audio streaming, as well as Telcos — Evolving roles
listening to music via YouTube) represents a major driver of both and competencies
customer demand and high traffic levels. However, video comes Various roles were suggested for telcos throughout the day (see
from its own ecosystem, with its own value and supply chain, includ- Figure 3). Graham Wilde, co-founder and CEO of BWCS, noted that
ing the sharing of video over social networks — which telcos are telcos’ core competencies have evolved from managing a (copper)
struggling to control, let alone, exploit. pipe to a wraparound of expansion services, including televi-
Some telecommunication players are increasingly moving into sion (TV). One third of BT’s revenues now derive from IT services,
content delivery to defend their broadband revenue streams. EE bringing BT into competition with players such as IBM. Chris Lewis,
described the launch of their EETV service over their very success- Telecommunications Industry Analyst at Lewis Insight, suggested
ful 4G network. EE’s business model is based mainly on meeting that telcos can extend into new services and build converged infra-
consumers’ desire to multiscreen within their own homes, as well structure, but they need to stay focused on customers. Telcos need
as on improving customer loyalty and reducing churn. Customers to develop different core competencies that include: maintaining
•
•
Integrated with pay TV
Single bill
TELCO • All content:
broadcast, premium, online
• All content on all devices (Netflix, Amazon, Wuaki,
• Search, navigation, UI etc.)
their network; marketing and managing their brand with customers; enterprises (SMEs) in Europe. However, SMEs’ needs are varied,
and keeping up with technological change. so a “menu” of more personalized services is required rather than
Participants agreed that telcos need to defend their broadband any single specific service, including functions of an IT help desk.
services. According to Philip Carse, telcos have little option but to Network function virtualization (NFV) could significantly reduce
invest in next-generation networks (NGNs) — if they don’t, their capex and operational expenditure (opex), as it is cheaper to buy
competitors will. Some can aim to provide a platform for a multi- software than rack-and-stack hardware.
screen, multi-device hub, (the strategy being followed by EE). Telcos Telcos need to be flexible around other peoples’ business mod-
can also engage in becoming business bundlers and aggregating els and allow customers to choose with whom they want to do busi-
content, i.e. by pulling together multiple providers into a single ness, and scale the organization accordingly. New business models
package as with pay TV services. Pim Bilderbeek, Partner and and new attitudes to partners and channels are needed, along with
Principal Analyst at METISfiles, noted that it is unclear as to whether regulatory frameworks to drive investment and innovation. There is
telcos will become brokers or exchangers of services. Telcos should still a lot of potential for agile providers of service and technology
also explore new market segments — Teresa Cottam, founder into the telecommunication sector. Ultimately, telcos should follow
and Chief Strategist of Telesperience, noted that there is a large the money — try to anticipate where future revenues lie, and use
business opportunity of around 20 million small and medium-sized today’s revenues to follow tomorrow’s money.
ITU
WTIS 2014: Indicators symposium
recognizes progress in ICT development
The 12th World Telecommunication/ by 250 participants from 79 Member Sustainable Development, and Chair
ICT Indicators Symposium (WTIS), organized States and 15 other public and private of WTIS 2014. In his opening remarks,
by ITU and hosted by the Government of organizations. Mr Garibashvili highlighted the vital impor-
Georgia, took place in Tbilisi, Georgia, The Symposium was opened by Irakli tance of telecommunications as a priority
24–26 November 2014 to debate hot topics Garibashvili, the Prime Minister of Georgia, sector for Georgia’s development, and
related to international information and in the presence of Giorgi Kvirikashvili, described the liberalization of its market,
communication technology (ICT) statistics the Minister of Economy and Sustainable the move to digital broadcasting, and the
and information society measurement. Development and Vice-Prime Minister introduction of e‑government services.
The three-day Symposium, the main global of Georgia, and Dimitry Kumsishvili,
forum to discuss ICT statistics, was attended First Deputy Minister of Economy and
ITU was represented by the Secretary- Discussions took place on “big data”, With a view to improving international
General Elect, Houlin Zhao (now ITU which offers huge possibilities for comple- comparability, it was agreed that a revision
Secretary-General), who highlighted the menting existing and producing new ICT of the indicator on International Internet
important role of WTIS at the dawn of the indicators, including from: mobile devices, bandwidth was necessary, and participants
post 2015-development period, when ICTs mobile apps, mobile payment platforms, discussed the difference between the
are expected to play a critical role for the content delivery networks, social media, indicators on mobile phone owners, mobile
sustainable development of countries. instant messaging, and other Internet phone users and mobile-cellular subscrip-
He further emphasized the importance of sources. Despite challenges with regard to tions. ITU will collaborate with GSMA
ITU’s work in monitoring the information data quality, methodologies and privacy, Intelligence to improve global data on
society. Brahima Sanou, Director of the ITU mobile and Internet data are already being mobile phone uptake and usage.
Telecommunication Development Bureau, used to produce real-time information, A special session on the international
described the framework for ITU’s work including for tracking and monitoring the coordination of ICT measurement was held
on ICT statistics emanating from the ITU impact of earthquakes and epidemics. at the occasion of the 10th Anniversary
Plenipotentiary Conference 2014 and sixth However, analysis of big data suggests that of the Partnership on Measuring ICT for
World Telecommunication Development the geographical distribution of Internet Development.
Conference. content may not match the distribution of ITU’s flagship statistics publication,
WTIS began with a ministerial round Internet users, and highlights the uneven “Measuring the Information Society Report
table in which participants discussed the geography of knowledge production. 2014”, was launched at WTIS. The ICT
upcoming post-2015 development agenda Another session focused on measuring Development Index (IDI) country rankings
and future ICT4D policies. The keynote competition, regulation and affordability were announced at an award ceremony,
speaker, Professor Richard Heeks of the of ICT services. Experts also discussed data and discussed during a separate panel.
United Kingdom’s University of Manchester, quality, open data policies, and the progress Denmark ranked first in ITU’s IDI, a compos-
highlighted the mismatch between new of the work carried out by the Partnership ite measurement that ranks 166 countries
development priorities and current ICT4D on Measuring ICT for Development. according to their level of ICT access, use
priorities and emphasized the importance Participants debated current and future and skills (see separate article about the
of “development through ICTs”, where work on telecommunication/ICT indica- report and ICT Development Index). An
economic, social and political life is digitally tors and ICT household indicators, and “Information society measurement award”
mediated. The experiences of Jordan, received reports from the Expert Group on and trophy were awarded to those countries
Namibia and Egypt were also presented, Telecommunication/ICT Indicators (EGTI) that had hosted world telecommunication/
and panellists emphasized how data can and the Expert Group on ICT Household ICT indicators events; Egypt (WTIM 2009),
form a sound basis for economic and social Indicators (EGH) on their work over the Mauritius (WTIM 2011), Thailand (WTIM
policy and decision-making. Calls were past year. Hong Kong (China) and Spain 2012) and Mexico (WTIS 2013), as well as
made for the Partnership on Measuring presented their experiences with household Georgia. The Government of Japan offered
ICT for Development, ITU and National surveys, while the experiences of Japan and to host WTIS 2015.
Statistical Offices (NSOs) to contribute Moldova were presented with regard to
actively to data collection. implementing open data policies.
The latest edition of ITU’s annual flagship publication The 2014 annual report was presented at a special launch ses-
“Measuring the Information Society Report 2014” paints a picture sion during the World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Symposium
of ongoing growth in mobile-cellular telephony, mobile broadband (WTIS) in Tbilisi, Georgia, on 24 November 2014, attended by Houlin
and Internet usage. Meanwhile, demand is shifting from fixed Zhao, now ITU Secretary-General, and Brahima Sanou, Director of
to mobile telephony, and from fixed to mobile broadband in the the ITU Telecommunication Development Bureau, alongside rep-
developing world. Although the information society continues to resentatives from governments, statisticians, industry experts and
expand, digital divides still persist — and are even widening — in the United Nations family. Several WTIS sessions were dedicated to
some segments. There exists especially a significant urban-rural discussing the key findings of the report and the results of the ITU
digital divide. ICT Development Index (IDI).
ICT Development Index country rankings as trained workforces with the skills to make use of information and
ITU’s latest ICT Development Index (IDI) ranks 166 countries communication technologies.
according to eleven indicators measuring their level of ICT access,
use and skills, including mobile cellular subscriptions, households
with a computer, Internet users, fixed and mobile broadband ICTs and the MDGs
Internet subscriptions, and basic literacy rates. The IDI is a valuable The report also includes extensive analysis of how ICT devel-
benchmarking tool to track the digital divide. opment (as represented by the IDI) relates to the United Nations
The index shows that Denmark leads the world in terms of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). New data shows signifi-
ICT development, followed by the Republic of Korea (which had cant correlation between the IDI and nine of the MDG indicators,
led the index for the previous three years in a row). Sweden, notably those related to poverty reduction and health improvement.
Iceland, the United Kingdom. Norway, the Netherlands, Finland, This indicates that there is also an important correlation between
Hong Kong (China) and Luxembourg also rank in the top 10 (see ICT development and other indicators of development in develop-
table). The United Arab Emirates, Fiji, Cape Verde, Thailand, Oman, ing countries. “The report finds that progress in ICT development
Qatar, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Georgia are the most is linked to progress in achieving some of the MDGs. It is precisely
dynamic countries, with above-average improvements in their IDI in poor and rural areas where ICTs can make a particularly signifi-
rank over the past year. cant impact. ITU has long been a vigorous champion of ICTs as a
All economies in the IDI top 30 are high-income economies, cornerstone of socio-economic development,” said Brahima Sanou,
underlining the strong link between income and ICT progress. The Director of the ITU Telecommunication Development Bureau, which
report notes that these countries have highly liberalized and com- produces the report.
petitive ICT markets that are at the forefront of innovation, as well
ICT prices and the role of competition Mobile broadband in developed countries is six times more afford-
The price of ICT services is a key determining factor in their able than in developing countries. Austria has the world’s most
uptake, and affordability (the level of prices relative to income) affordable mobile broadband, while Gambia, Niger and Vanuatu
remains a major barrier. The good news is that where prices are have the least affordable. Many European countries, Qatar, Hong
being monitored over time, they are gradually decreasing — for Kong (China) and Macau (China) also rank well for affordable mobile
example, entry-level broadband plans are becoming more afford- broadband packages.
able, and fell from an average price of 94.5% of GNI per capita in Income inequality is one reason why fixed and mobile broad-
2008 to 18.3% of GNI per capita worldwide in 2013. Advertised band remain unaffordable for large segments of the population
speeds for fixed-broadband plans are increasing: 1 Mbit/s was the in developing countries. A large proportion of households in the
most common entry-level speed in 2013, compared with 256 kbit/s developing world cannot afford to have one handset-based mobile-
in 2008. broadband plan per person, and often a subscription is shared
It is widely believed that competition acts to reduce prices, but among members of the same household.
is this causal, or have price declines in mobile and fixed-broadband
over the last five years just happened to coincide with the rise of
competition? This is not necessarily causal — the introduction of Big data for ICT monitoring
new broadband technologies could be driving price reductions, and development
rather than changes in market structure. The report also explores the role of big data and its significance
The report analysed trends in broadband prices for more than for ICT monitoring and for development, including data produced
144 countries and related the changes in prices to economic devel- by telecommunication operators. In today’s hyperconnected world,
opment (as measured by GNI per capita), urban population, level people, objects and devices leave digital footprints in many forms,
of competition in the market, regulatory frameworks (as measured as well as ever-increasing data flows from transactions and interac-
by the ITU Regulatory Tracker), the presence of a data plan cap and tions, messages and/or traces from the Internet of Things (IoT). The
speed. All of these variables were significant in determining price, term “big data” usually refers to datasets whose volume, velocity
except speed. The move from a duopoly to a triopoly (assuming or variety is very high compared to the kinds of datasets that have
equal market share) is associated with average prices 5.8% lower been traditionally used. The emergence of big data also reflects
for fixed broadband and 7.8% lower for mobile cellular. The results advances in technology that make it possible to capture, store and
of the analysis suggest that if fixed-broadband markets in develop- process increasing amounts of data from different data sources.
ing countries were to achieve the competition levels of developed Data from mobile operators are available in real-time and at
countries, entry-level fixed-broadband prices could fall by as much low-cost, and are being used, for example, to track mobility patterns
as 10% in the developing world, and mobile-cellular prices by 5%. and to map poverty levels.
Regulation also plays a determining role in shaping prices, The report explores ways of using big data from the ICT industry
particularly in fixed-broadband services. The report suggests that if to monitor the information society, including mobile subscription
international regulatory best practices were adopted, fixed-broad- and traffic data, and customer profiling to reveal new insights into
band prices could be reduced by as much as 9.7% in developing ICT uptake and use, and the digital divide. A number of WTIS‑14
countries. The results of a comprehensive price data collection for panels and sessions discussed the topic of big data.
four different types of mobile-broadband service shows that mobile For more information, see: www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/
broadband is cheaper than fixed broadband in many countries. Pages/publications/mis2014.aspx.
On 17 May 1865, the International Our continuing mission is to achieve the A rich and varied history
Telegraph Convention was signed, marking best practical solutions for integrating new Since 1865, ITU has grown to
the commitment of ITU’s founding members technologies as they develop, and to spread 193 Member States and over 700 Sector
to work together to connect the world. Ever their benefits to all,” said outgoing ITU Members, with academia being granted
since this first meeting almost 150 years Secretary General, Dr Hamadoun I. Touré, membership in 2011. ITU has a rich history
ago, ITU’s membership has risen to face on 21 October 2014, at the ITU 150th of multilateral public-private partnership.
the challenges of the rapidly evolving Anniversary launch event during the ITU ITU’s mandate has continually expanded
telecommunication/information and Plenipotentiary Conference (PP-14), held in to meet the needs of the growing telecom-
communication technology (ICT) sector, by Busan, Republic of Korea. munication/ICT sector — which has seen
“innovating together”. A variety of celebratory events are landmark events such as the invention of
“The story of ITU is one of international planned throughout 2015 to commemorate voice telephony, the launch of the first com-
cooperation — among governments, the major milestone of 150 years of ITU munications satellites, and most recently,
private companies and other stakeholders. history. the arrival of the information age and the
spread of its associated benefits across international community’s shared global around the high-profile World Economic
the globe. vision for the development of the telecom- Forum Annual Meeting in Davos-Klosters,
ITU’s collaborative work on currently munication/ICT sector adopted during Switzerland, in January, under the theme,
emerging technologies such as the Internet the 2014 Plenipotentiary Conference. This “Innovative Investment in Future Broadband
of Things (IoT), next-generation networks agenda comprises four high-level strategic Networks”.
and smart cities is vital as “smart” technolo- goals — growth, inclusiveness, sustain- From February to December, monthly
gies have become increasingly adopted ability, innovation and partnership — and themes (see table) highlight ITU’s com-
in sectors ranging from health to security. 17 measurable targets to be achieved by mitment to “innovating together”. The
As Mohamed Al Ghanim, Director General 2020, as described in the Plenipotentiary thematic calendar includes events that are
of the Telecommunications Regulatory Resolution entitled, “Connect 2020 Agenda strategically defined by ITU’s areas of action
Authority (TRA), United Arab Emirates, said for global telecommunication/information and core competencies — from accessibil-
at the 150th Anniversary launch event, and communication technology develop- ity, radiocommunications and the digital
“Today, every Member State plays an ment” (see article in ITU News No. 6, 2014). switchover to gender issues — showcasing
important role in pursuing the development The year 2015 also marks the launch the extensive reach of ITU’s work.
process for this organization, keeping up in September of the United Nations Post- Events to be held throughout the year
with the accelerated rate of constant ICT 2015 Development Agenda. Due to their range from video features about the future
breakthroughs and innovations.” far-reaching application in sectors such as networked car to webinars with youth on
education, employment and health, among the future of radio. The different activities
others, ICTs are integral to achieving the will also be captured on social media —
A year of celebrations renewed sustainable development goals. Join ITU by following our channels and be
This year of anniversary celebrations ITU will also launch promotional activities part of the conversation.
will be an opportunity to highlight the his-
tory of ICTs as well as achievements of ITU
and its members over the past 150 years. Calendar of thematic months
The festivities began in January, with January IcT’s Drivers of Innovation
ITU welcoming the new leadership team — February youth and Innovation
Houlin Zhao, Secretary-General; Malcolm
march Innovation and Intelligent Transport systems
Johnson, Deputy Secretary-General; François
April girls and Women and Innovation
Rancy, Director of the Radiocommunication
may IcT’s Drivers of Innovation
Bureau (BR); Brahima Sanou, Director of
the Telecommunication Development June Digital switchover and Innovation
Bureau (BDT); and Chaesub Lee, Director July Accessibility and Innovation
of the Telecommunication Standardization August Bridging the Digital Divide
Bureau (TSB). In January, they participated september Navigation and Innovation
in online debates, discussing their vision for October Big Data and Innovation
the future of the Union. This also encom-
November World Radiocommunication conference (WRc) as Enabler of Innovation
passed the Connect 2020 Agenda, the
December ITU — Driver of Future Innovation
International celebrations
A number of national celebrations will take place throughout
2015 and so far, more than 50 activities have been planned by
ITU
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Republic of Ghana
Austria Netherlands
Belgium Norway
Denmark Portugal
France Russia
Germany Spain
Greece Sweden
Hungary Switzerland
Italy Turkey
An ITU event on Combating counterfeit counterfeit and substandard information governments, i.e. in terms of lost revenues,
and substandard ICT devices was held at and communication technology (ICT) customs duties and taxes, while presenting
ITU Headquarters, in Geneva, Switzerland, devices. serious health hazards, privacy and security
on 17–18 November 2014. It was Counterfeiting is increasingly becoming concerns, low performance and degraded
chaired by Dr Eugene Juwah, Executive a problem within the ICT industry, partly quality of service to consumers. According
Vice-Chairman/CEO of the Nigerian driven by growth, especially in mobile. to presentations at the event, there is
Communications Commission (NCC), Counterfeit and substandard ICT devices clearly a need to gather, analyse and dis-
who noted that the strong attendance can have a significant negative impact on seminate more facts and empirical data
and interest in the event underline the industry in lost income, dilution of trade- about the nature and impact of counterfeit
importance of collective action to curtail mark value and lower consumer trust and and substandard products — not only to
gain a better understanding of the scope of System for Mobile Terminal Registration today are currently unauthorized. ANATEL
the problem, but also to enable the crafting (AISMTRU) in 2009 to protect the national is working with all stakeholders including
of adequate solutions to redress it. market from imports of counterfeit and GSMA, operators and manufacturers to
In his keynote speech, Dr Robert substandard mobile phones. The National increase the success of its SIGA Project to
Kahn, Chairman, CEO and President of the Communications Authority (NCA) of Ghana control counterfeit and substandard ICT
Corporation for National Research Initiatives noted that counterfeit phones cost very lit- devices. The UK’s Department for Business,
(CNRI), described ITU–T Recommendation tle, and have actually contributed to increas- Innovation and Skills (BIS) described
X.1255, entitled “Framework for discovery ing teledensity in the country, while creating how the number of counterfeit devices is
of identity management information”, as a youth employment. However, they pose a increasing in tug-of-war between manu-
conceptual framework with direct relevance number of challenges in terms of health, facturers and counterfeiters. It was agreed
to combat counterfeit goods. He intro- safety, e‑waste, quality of service, interfer- that all stakeholders should work together
duced Digital Object Architecture (DOA) ence, and tax evasion. In March 2014, the to address this issue, while respecting the
and the work of the DONA Foundation on Ghanaian regulator issued IMEIXS a licence privacy of end-users, and that multilateral
unique persistent identifiers. In his open- to implement the GSMA International action and better awareness are needed.
ing address, Brahima Sanou, Director of Mobile Equipment Identity (IMEI) platform
the ITU Telecommunication Development with a serial number unique to every device, According to participants, initiatives in
Bureau, highlighted the adoption of in order to block counterfeit mobile phones. other countries to combat counterfeit ICT
World Telecommunication Development However, the licence does not make it devices include:
Conference (WTDC) Resolution 79 on the mandatory for mobile network operators to `` Azerbaijan — A database for IMEI
role of telecommunications/ICTs in combat- connect to this platform. codes has been in operation under the
ing and dealing with counterfeit telecom- The Telecommunications Regulatory Ministry of Communications and High
munication devices (these include counter- Authority (TRA) of the United Arab Emirates Technologies since 2013.
feit and/or copied devices and equipment presented the United Arab Emirates plan `` Colombia —The Ministry of Information
as well as accessories and components). to minimize counterfeit products in the and Communication Technologies has
A new Resolution adopted at the ITU country. In September 2011, TRA issued two IMEI code databases, one for lost
Plenipotentiary Conference on combating the Directive on “Duplicative IMEI” and and stolen mobile devices and the
counterfeit ICT devices, has also introduced is conducting an awareness campaign other for those devices that are legally
this issue into ITU’s work. among consumers, as many believe that manufactured and imported.
counterfeit ICT devices perform as well as `` Egypt —The National
genuine ICT devices. By 2012, TRA had Telecommunications Regulatory
The policy debate disconnected more than 100 000 handsets. Authority (NTRA) set up a Central
In the Policy Debate session, gov- ANATEL presented Brazil’s SIGA Project Equipment Identity Register (CEIR) in
ernments offered their perspectives on to control cloned devices. Regulations in 2010 and has found 500 000 mobile
combating counterfeit and substandard Brazil dictate that operators can allow handsets with fake IMEI codes.
ICT products. The Ukrainian State Centre of only authorized devices onto networks, `` India — In 2009, the Government
Radio Frequencies described how Ukraine but ANATEL believes that a considerable of India banned services on mobile
introduced its Automatic Information proportion of the terminals on the network handsets without IMEI numbers; up to
25 million mobile handsets are esti- `` Turkey — The Information and Intergovernmental
mated to have become ineffective. Communication Technology Authority of initiatives
`` Kenya — 1.89 million counterfeit Turkey established a Central Equipment During the session on
mobile phones have been phased out Identity Registry. By the end of 2010, Intergovernmental Initiatives, the World
since 2012, following notice by the some 14 million handsets had been Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO),
Communications Authority of Kenya blacklisted with cloned IMEI. the World Trade Organization (WTO),
that all mobile network operators `` Uganda — the Uganda the European Commission (EC), the
disconnect these devices from their Communications Commission (UCC) has Organisation for Economic Cooperation
networks. launched a project which aims to gradu- and Development (OECD) and the World
`` Sri Lanka — The Telecommunications ally eliminate counterfeit phones. Customs Organization (WCO) presented
Regulatory Commission of Sri Lanka is initiatives to protect intellectual property
looking to develop and implement a Governments are pursuing anti- rights (IPRs) and combat counterfeit and
National Equipment Identity Register counterfeit programmes and establishing substandard products. Participants agreed
(NEIR) that allows all mobile operators databases for a range of different reasons, on the need for clear and correct use of
to be connected to IMEI databases and although protecting tax revenues is a com- terminology, neatly summarized by WTO as
share blacklisted mobiles. mon goal. follows:
`` counterfeit equipment is related to the
infringement of trademarks with intent
to deceive and defraud consumers;
`` infringement of trademarks may
confuse consumers, but lacks malicious
intent to deceive;
`` contraband equipment is a trade issue
and relates to the infringement of
customs regulations; and
`` substandard equipment is a regula-
tory issue. Substandard products may
be non-compliant, but they may have customs authorities, which are extrapolated the Machine-to-Machine (M2M) supply
a national trademark, so they are not through WCO data. Further research and chain. Security must be taken into account
necessarily counterfeit. data are needed about the real nature and from the very beginning in designing
These terms are different from one impact of counterfeit goods because the products through quality control, logistics,
another and should not be used inter- assumptions, for example, that counterfeit supply of solutions to end-of-life disposal —
changeably, as the term used partly shapes ICT devices are necessarily of poor quality security cannot be bolted on later. Microsoft
the response. WIPO pointed out, for exam- and are dangerous for health need to be has a group of almost one hundred profes-
ple, that the WTO’s Agreement on Trade- backed by solid empirical data. For its part, sionals working on counterfeiting, piracy,
Related Aspects of Intellectual Property WCO pointed out that, of approximately malware disruption and IP protection.
Rights (TRIPS) can help fight counterfeit ICT 1.1 billion counterfeit products stopped Microsoft considers that its experience of
goods, but not substandard ICT goods, as by customs authorities in Africa as part malware and counterfeit devices is analo-
this is a regulatory issue not related to IPRs. of Operation Biyela, 40% of these were elec- gous to its past experience with software
Article 61 of TRIPS gives guidance on what tronic appliances. — first, counterfeiters make cheap replicas,
constitutes counterfeit goods, and creates sell them and make money; then, counter-
obligations on WTO Member States to feiters also aim to access users’ data and
make criminal penalties available — selling The technology debate control devices. Microsoft sees existing legal
fake or counterfeit goods is illegal in most The Technology Debate was hosted in frameworks as sufficient, but they need to
WTO Member States. two sessions. Industry perspectives were be better utilized.
The European Commission (EC) high- presented in the fight against counterfeit Hewlett Packard presented its Global
lighted that, within the ICT industry, mobile and substandard ICT products. The Mobile Anti-Counterfeit (ACF) Programme, and
phones are clearly the largest source of Manufacturers Forum (MMF) cited research pointed out that the issue of counterfeiting
concern when it comes to counterfeiting related to negative network performance is not only limited to ICT and printing equip-
and substandard practices. Nevertheless, arising from counterfeit phones. Counterfeit ment. Rather, the problem also extends
counterfeit and substandard ICT accesso- phones drop one in four calls, delay to ICT components and accessories such
ries, chips and other components also now handover, and fail in every third hando- as laptops, adapters, batteries, servers,
infiltrate the supply chain of many other ver. Operators can tackle and reduce the hard drives, and USB flash drives. Société
industries, including aviation, construc- number of counterfeit phones operating on Générale de Surveillance (SGS) emphasized
tion, and health. According to the EC, the their networks in order to increase quality the need to verify, survey and enforce. If
ex-post application of regulation to seek of service. GSMA described its International counterfeit or substandard ICT goods are
redress does not work alone; a preventative Mobile Equipment Identifier (IMEI) data- blocked at customs, experience shows that
approach is needed to tackle the problem of base to uniquely identify mobile phones. they may nevertheless filter into the country
counterfeiting and substandard ICT devices Over 700 operators, 14 national regulatory via other channels. Better coordination is
at source. and law enforcement agencies, and two needed between different agencies.
Measurement of counterfeit and pirated customs agencies have used the database The Ministry of Industry and
trade is difficult due to very limited data to recover devices and prevent device Information Technology of China explained
availability. The methodology of the OECD laundering. how China has introduced the handle sys-
is based on data for tangible products that Cisco Systems presented its cradle-to- tem and Digital Object Architecture (DOA).
infringe trademarks based on surveys from the-grave approach to security throughout Today, six large firms are using this system
However, financing and deploying `` Introducing effective policy and regula- With regard to whether regulation can
broadband to reach low-income communi- tion for the ICT sector; keep pace with fast-moving technologi-
ties or people in remote areas is proving `` Devising appropriate tax policies for the cal change, the latest research by ITU and
challenging, due to a combination of factors sector; the ITU/UNESCO Broadband Commission
that make these markets less attractive for `` Selecting and implementing other for Digital Development suggests that the
private investors. This means that either interventions to underpin the necessary regulation of broadband networks and
governments often have to provide the investment. content is highly asymmetric between
sole source of funding, or take steps to Participants agreed that spurring the different types of players. Technological
attract investment or co-investment, so as finance and investment for the future convergence is blurring the boundaries
to expand access to broadband to the least roll-out of broadband is critical, if we are between services and industries. Regulators
advantaged groups. For these purposes, the to unleash the power of broadband to and policy-makers are seeking to adapt and
cooperation and buy-in of a range of agents deliver transformative solutions to the update regulatory requirements, with the
in the information and communication development goals of our day. A number of introduction of “fourth-generation” regula-
technology (ICT) ecosystem is imperative. speakers noted that broadband is trans- tion to establish an enabling environment
This Special Session of the ITU/ forming almost every act of production and to encourage sustainable investment.
UNESCO Broadband Commission for consumption, whether public or private, Participants agreed that a level regula-
Digital Development at the World including the delivery of vital services with tory playing-field might help encourage
Economic Forum’s 2015 Annual Meeting public value such as education, health and investment in broadband networks; how-
(21–24 January) in Davos-Klosters, cultural services. A number of participants ever, few were entirely certain what a “level
Switzerland, sought to identify actions and highlighted the gap between growing playing-field” would really look like, and
policies that will encourage that coopera- demand and traffic volumes and reduced between which sets of players. All partici-
tion and attract finance and investment in incentives for operators to invest. Current pants were united, however, in agreeing
broadband. In particular, stakeholders from public-private investment models may that the stakes are high, and digital exclu-
industry, government and financial institu- not be sufficient; innovative new financ- sion is too great a risk, so both traditional
tions were invited to present and discuss ing mechanisms are needed. Participants and evolving players must work together
the following action areas: agreed that appropriate steps are needed for the benefit of industry and society as
`` Gaining access to low-cost private sec- to encourage investment in broadband net- a whole.
tor finance; works, as well as specific interventions with
a positive impact in broadband investment.
GEM-TECH Award
winner: Spotlight
on UNESCO
AFP
ITU celebrated the Gender Equality and Mainstreaming
Technology (GEM-TECH) Awards 2014 in Busan, Republic of Korea, Gender equality is one of UNESCO’s global priorities and the
on 28 October at a Plenary Session of the ITU Plenipotentiary organization strives to promote gender equality and women’s
Conference. In this and future editions, ITU News will feature the empowerment by integrating these principles into all its work
chosen winner and project for each category, beginning with programmes. Education makes it possible to transmit the essential
Category 1. value of gender equality, and can help reinforce the fundamental
The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural human rights of women and their central role in all societies. The
Organization (UNESCO) won the first category of the seven GEM- teaching of history has a crucial role to play since it enables the
TECH Awards, “ICT Applications, Content, Production Capacities understanding of cultural dimensions, and highlights the social,
and Skills for Women’s Social, Political Empowerment and Women’s political, and economic conditions in the lives of women in past
Empowerment Linkages with Sustainable Development” with its societies.
online portal, Women in African History: An E‑Learning Tool (Africa). Through the use of ICTs, the platform showcases African women
This platform consists of multimedia educational resources high- or women of African descent. It demonstrates that historically,
lighting the role of women in African history (including comic strips, women have distinguished themselves in the history of the conti-
audio modules, and quizzes). Ensuring meaningful engagement of nent in areas as diverse as politics (Gisele Rabesahala), diplomacy
young girls with information and communication technologies (ICTs) and resistance against colonization (Nzinga Mbandi), defence
through the production of relevant local content, the e‑learning of women’s rights (Funmilayo Ransome-Kuti) and environmen-
tool enables capacity building of young girls as both decision- tal protection (Wangari Maathai). In terms of Open Educational
makers and producers in the information and communication Resources (OERs), the portal highlights the work of Yaa Asantewaa,
technology sector. The platform is currently available in English and Angie Elizabeth Brooks, Bessie Coleman, Awa Kaita, Miriam
French (http://fr.unesco.org/womeninafrica/), with several African Makeba, Queen Nanny, Nehanda Nyakasikana, Huda Shaarawi, and
languages to be rolled out by 2015 to promote multilingualism in Sojourner Truth.
cyberspace and encourage online access by rural populations. By emphasizing the education, academic careers and main
UNESCO is known as the “intellectual” agency of the United achievements of these exceptional women, UNESCO highlights their
Nations and its main objective is to contribute to peace and security legacy and calls for continued research on the role of women in
in the world by promoting collaboration among nations through African history.
education, science, culture and communication in order to further See our article on the GEM-TECH Awards 2014 in ITU News
universal respect for justice and the rule of law and for human rights No. 6 (November/December 2014). Over the coming months,
and fundamental freedoms for the peoples of the world. ITU News will be featuring more GEM-TECH winners.
Official Visits
Obaid salem saeed Al Zaabi, Amr Ahmed Ramadan, Joachim Rücker, Ambassador of germany
Ambassador of the United Arab Emirates Ambassador of Egypt (centre) and gönke Roscher, head of the
Economic Division at the permanent mission
of germany, geneva, switzerland (right)
© Thinkstock
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