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Tools for components reliability prediction

Conference Paper · June 2017

DOI: 10.1201/9781315210469-276

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Zdenek Vintr Michal Vintr

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 Safety and Reliability – Theory and Applications – epin & Briš (Eds)
© 2017 Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 978-1-138-62937-0

Tools for components reliability prediction

Z. Vintr
University of Defence, Brno, Czech Republic

M. Vintr
Independent Reliability Consultant, Brno, Czech Republic

ABSTRACT:  The paper deals with the problem of reliability assessment of electronic, electric and
mechanical components for technical systems. It is specifically focused on the analysis of the current
situation in the field of component reliability prediction. In the initial phases of component’s life cycle,
especially in the pre-manufacturing phases, usually it is not possible to use neither testing experience nor
field experience for components reliability assessment because the components do not exist physically. In
this case, it is convenient to use modern internationally recognized reliability databases or standardized
calculation methodologies introduced in this paper. The article brings a survey of databases and method-
ologies for components reliability prediction that are internationally recognized and most often used.

1 INTRODUCTION component quality. The most frequent quality val-

Nowadays the requirements on reliability of the
electrical, instrumentation and control systems are
constantly rising. Suppliers, who are able to “man-
age” reliability of developed and manufactured
systems, have significant competitive advantages.
The basis of the mentioned “managing” is reliabil-
ity assessment in the initial stages of product life.
The reliability of the whole systems can be assessed
using the well-known methods (e.g. Reliability
block diagrams, Fault tree analysis).
The application of these methods requires
assessing the reliability of individual components.
It can be carried out by a number of different ways.
First, the given data might be taken directly from a
manufacturer of a specific element, but only if the
manufacturer has the specific information avail-
able. However, in practice we frequently face the
situation that a manufacturer of a specific compo-
nent is not able or not willing to provide the infor-
mation on their products reliability. In this case, we
have no choice but to search for different ways of
determining or estimating the necessary param-
eters. In this case, the most credible approach to
prediction of components reliability is utilizing of
internationally accepted reliability databases and
reliability prediction methods.
In all the databases and methodologies men-
tioned below the values of reliability measures are
stated for different levels of component quality
and different operational environments. The level
of design, development and manufacturing of
a component is characterized by the level of the
ues are as follows: unknown, lower, commercial,
military-specific, etc. The surroundings in which
the component will be operated are characterized
by operational environment. The most frequent
categories of operational environments are as
follows: ground-benign, ground-fixed, ground-
mobile, naval, airborne, etc.
2  RELIABILITY DATABASES
2.1  NPRD-2016 – Non-electronic Parts
Reliability Data
The database NPRD-2016 – Non-electronic Parts
Reliability Data was created by the Quanterion
Solutions Incorporated (Quanterion 2016d). The
database provides failure rate data for a wide vari-
ety of component types including mechanical,
electromechanical, and electronic assemblies. The
data was obtained by long lasting observation of
systems and elements in the field. The data col-
lection targeted the information on relatively new
components without actually having enough expe-
rience of dealing with them as well as the informa-
tion from different sources, operational conditions,
and quality levels (Dylis & Priore 2001).
The main goal of the database is to provide the
information about the elements failure rates made
of commercial quality, to provide the information
on the failure rates of the state-of-the-art parts,
and to complete similar methodologies with the
data on the elements which are not included in
them.

2187
 The database exists both in a paper and in an
electronic form, but primarily it might be acquired
as a part of software products of most of the com-
panies specializing in software development in the
dependability area. Other information on actual
version of the database can be found on the web
pages of the product (Quanterion 2016a).
2.2  EPRD-2014 - Electronic Parts Reliability
Data
The database EPRD-2014 – Electronic Parts Reli-
ability Data was also made by the Quanterion
Solutions Incorporated. The database consists of
the information on electronic components failure
rates.
It is about the following components: integrated
circuits, discrete semiconductors (diodes, transis-
tors, optoelectronic devices), resistors, capacitors,
and inductors/transformers, all of which were
obtained from the field usage of electronic compo-
nents. The data collection was aimed at getting the
information on relatively new components without
having enough experience of dealing with them
as well as the information from different sources,
operational conditions, and quality levels. The
main goal of the database is to provide the infor-
mation on the failure rates of the state-of-the-art
parts, and especially to complete the MIL-HDBK-
217F methodology.
The database exists both in a paper and in an
electronic form, but primarily it might be acquired
as a part of software products of most of the com-
panies specializing in software development in the
dependability area. Other information on actual
version of the database can be found on the web
pages of the product (Quanterion 2014).
2.3  FMD-2016 - Failure Mode/Mechanism
Distributions
The database FMD-2016 - Failure Mode/Mecha-
nism Distributions was also created by the Quante-
rion Solutions Incorporated. In the database there
is the data on probability of single failure modes´
occurrence for specific electronic, electrical, elec-
tromechanical, and mechanical components. The
information was obtained by long lasting observa-
tion of systems and elements in the field.
The main goal of the database is to provide
necessary background for carrying out predictive
dependability analyses, especially FMECA (Fail-
ure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis). The
database exists both in a paper and in an elec-
tronic form, but primarily it might be acquired as
a part of software products of most of the com-
panies specializing in software development in the
dependability area. Other information on actual
2188
version of the database can be found on the web
pages of the product (Quanterion 2016b).
2.4  Quanterion automated databook
The Automated Databook represents an integrated
software product that incorporates the above
mentioned databases NPRD-2016, EPRD-2014
and FMD-2016). This interactive software tool
provides efficient search and retrieval of all infor-
mation contained in pertinent databases. Contain-
ing a built-in search engine, information may be
searched on part number, part types, and manu-
facturer. Additional filters are available to specify
application environment and quality levels.
Other information on actual version of the soft-
ware can be found on the web pages of the product
(Quanterion 2016c).
2.5  SPIDRTM - System and Part Integrated
Data Resource
The database SPIDRTM was published at the
beginning of 2006 by the Alion System Reliabil-
ity Centre (SRC 2016). The database SPIDRTM is a
complex product replacing the databases NPRD-
95, EPRD-97 and FMD-97 (previous versions
of the above mentioned databases NPDR-2016,
EPRD-2014 and FMD-2016), and contains more
than twice the amount of updated information
compared to the original set of databases.
To be specific, in the database there are the data
on more than 6000 types of electronic, electrical,
electromechanical and mechanical components.
The database SPIDRTM can be acquired as a sepa-
rate software product of the SRC.
Other information on actual version of the soft-
ware can be found on the web pages of the product
(SCR 2006).
2.6  OREDA
OREDA (Offshore & Onshore Reliability Data)
is a project organization sponsored by oil and gas
companies with worldwide operations (OREDA
2015a). OREDA’s main purpose is to collect and
exchange reliability data among the participating
companies. OREDA has established a compre-
hensive databank with reliability and maintenance
data for exploration and production equipment
from a wide variety of geographic areas, installa-
tions, equipment types and operating conditions.
Offshore subsea and topside equipment are pri-
marily covered, but onshore equipment is also
included (OREDA 2015b).
The OREDA data are stored in a database avail-
able for member companies and contractors in the
form of a handbook. At present the 6th edition of
the OREDA Handbook published in 2015 is the
current one. Only the OREDA member companies
have also access to the computerized database with
its comprehensive search and analysis software.
Purpose of this software solution is to handle
data collection, acquisition and analysis. Addi-
tionally, special utility is developed for software
configuration, automated data transfer, quality
check etc. Other information can be found on the
OREDA web pages (OREDA 2015a).
3  METHODOLOGIES FOR RELIABILITY
PREDICTION
3.1  Military standard MIL-HDBK-217F
The standard MIL-HDBK-217F—Military Hand-
book: Reliability Prediction of Electronic Equip-
ment is a defense standard published by the U.S.
Department of Defense. It was completed in 1961
and since then it was revised a couple of times, in
1995 it was rewritten for the last time and then the
standard development was finished. The predic-
tion methodology described in the standard was
primarily developed to predict reliability of mili-
tary electronic systems, but later it became widely
used in the areas out of the army, and nowadays it
is the most frequently used prediction methodol-
ogy of electronic elements reliability.
The parameters values introduced in the stand-
ard and used for calculating the failure rate were
obtained from the estimations based on the analy-
ses of real failures in the field.
Generic types of the elements included in the
standard are as follows: microcircuits, semiconduc-
tors, electronic tubes, lasers, resistors, condensers,
coils, rotary elements, relays, switches, connectors,
linking and connecting elements, silicon crystals,
bulbs, electronic filters, and fuses. The standard
contains two different prediction methods, a “parts
count” method and a “parts stress” method.
The parts stress prediction method requires
a greater amount of detailed information and is
applicable during later design phase when stresses
and other environmental and quality factors are
known for each component. The basic procedure
in calculating the failure rate is by multiplying a
base failure rate by operational and environmental
stress factors. For example, the method takes into
account the following factors: temperature, appli-
cation, power rating, power stress, contact con-
struction, quality, and environment.
The parts count prediction method is applicable
in early stages of a design and development when
little information about the design is known. The
parts count method is a relatively simple prediction
method using default stress values. The informa-
tion needed to apply the method is a generic type
2189
of the component, the component quality level
and the equipment environment.
In general, the parts count method will usually
result in more conservative estimation of a failure
rate than parts stress method.
The prediction according to the MIL-HDBK-
217F is supported by most software products
focused on reliability prediction. The standard in
the electronic form is freely available on the Internet.
The MIL-HDBK-217F is still very frequently
used in many areas of industry, in spite of the fact
that used methodology is out of date.
For this reason in 2008, Naval Surface Warfare
Center, Crane Division (U.S. Navy 2017b) gath-
ered an industry working group to develop a revi-
sion to MIL-HDBK-217. A draft of the updated
standard, MIL-HDBK-217G, was completed in
2010 and released for public review, but it was
quickly retracted pending internal discussions in
the U.S. Department of Defense bout reliability
policy (Gipper 2012). Despite the fact that this
standard has not been officially accepted, the per-
tinent methodology is often used in practice and
offered as a part of software products focused on
reliability prediction.
In 2011 U.S. Department of Defense showed a
new interest in MIL-HDBK-217 revisions, espe-
cially to include use of Physics of Failure methods
(Gipper 2012). Nevertheless this initiative has not
had any tangible results yet.
3.2  PRISM© - Reliability Prediction and
Database
PRISM© – Reliability Prediction and Database for
Electronic and Non-electronic Parts is a method-
ology of elements reliability prediction offered by
the Alion System Reliability Centre (SRC 2016).
The methodology was published at the begin-
ning of 1999  in order to replace the outdated
MIL-HDBK-217F.
The reliability estimation methodology PRISM©
includes two parts. First, failure rates at the ele-
ments level are determined and then modified
at the system level by process coefficients which
describe failure occurrence causes. A mathematical
model of system failure rate when using the meth-
odology PRISM© takes into account the follow-
ing factors infant mortality, environment, design
process, reliability growth, manufacturing process,
system management process, induced process, no-
defect process, and wear out process. Models for
individual types of components differ but they are
based on the general model already introduced.
Numerical values of failure rates, coefficients, mul-
tipliers are determined on the basis of the input
information on environment, the field, develop-
ment, manufacturing, stress, etc.
 The models are available for capacitors, resis-
tors, diodes, transistors, thyristors, integrated cir-
cuits and software. Specific values of failure rates,
factors and multipliers are assessed according to
the information on environment, operation, etc.
The methodology PRISM© exists as a software
product of the same name made by the SRC, and
it might be acquired as a part of software products
made by some companies specializing in software
development in the area of dependability. Other
information can be found on the web pages of the
product (SCR 1999).
3.3  217PlusTM
The methodology 217PlusTM – Reliability Predic-
tion Models deals with the prediction of elements
reliability and it is offered by the Quanterion Solu-
tions Incorporated (Quanterion 2016d). The meth-
odology was published in July 2006  in order to
replace fully outdated MIL-HDBK-217F and the
older rival product PRISM©.
The methodology enables us to predict reliabil-
ity of 12 groups of the following electronic ele-
ments: condensers, connectors, diodes, inductors,
integrated circuits, optoelectronic parts, relays,
resistors, switching devices, thyristors, transistors,
and transformers. The reliability prediction based
on the methodology 217PlusTM is carried out in
two stages. First, the reliability of single elements
is calculated on the components level, and then it
is modified by system coefficients on the system
level.
Numerical values of failure rates and coef-
ficients are determined on the basis of the input
information on environment, the field, develop-
ment, manufacturing, stress, etc. Failure rate on
the components level might be determined when
using other databases and methodologies, or one´s
own data might be used. A general mathematical
model of failure rate on the system level takes into
account especially the following factors: part proc-
ess grading, infant mortality, environment, design
process grading, reliability growth, manufactur-
ing process grading, system management process
grading, induced process grading, no-defect proc-
ess grading, and wear out process (Nicholls 2007).
The methodology exists in a paper and electronic
form, but mainly it can be acquired as a software
product of the same name. Prediction procedures
based on the methodology 217PlusTM are a part
of software products of some companies special-
izing in software development in the dependability
area.
The latest version of the product - 217Plus™:2015
Calculator is a Microsoft Excel-based tool that inte-
grates the failure rate models and Process Grade
Factors into one spreadsheet. Other information
2190
on actual version of this tool can be found on the
web pages of the product (Quanterion 2015).
3.4  FIDES Guide 2009
The methodology FIDES described in the hand-
book FIDES Guide 2009 – Reliability Methodol-
ogy for Electronic Systems was published in 2010
under the auspices of the Ministry of Defense in
France. It is a second edition of the handbook,
while the first edition appeared as the standard
DGA-DM/STTC/CO/477-A in 2004. The hand-
book was worked out by the FIDES (FIDES
Group 2008) partnership consisting of French
industrial companies involved in the areas of avia-
tion and defense industry.
The methodology was developed using practical
data from the aviation and military area and those
of the producers’. It focuses on realistic prediction
of electronic devices reliability and systems oper-
ating under difficult conditions (defense systems,
aviation, etc.). The methodology provides the
models for electrical, electronic, and electrome-
chanical elements as well as for the parts of printed
circuits. It takes into account all the technological
and physical factors which influence product reli-
ability (Marin & Pollard 2005).
To be specific, it looks at the kind of emission,
electrical, mechanical and thermal overstress, and
the development, manufacturing, operation and
maintenance related failures. It might be used in all
the areas using electronics. The handout contain-
ing the methodology FIDES might be found and
downloaded free of charge on the FIDES partner-
ship web pages (FIDES Group 2009), and predic-
tions procedures based on the methodology FIDES
are a part of commercial software products.
3.5  IEC/TR 62380 – Reliability data handbook
A universal model for reliability prediction of elec-
tronics components, and equipment was published
by the International Electrotechnical Commission
(IEC 2017) in August 2004. The standard stems
from the French telecommunication standard
UTE C 80–810 which was published in 2000. The
methodology stated in both standards is known
as RDF 2000. In the methodology there are cal-
culation models for a number of electronic ele-
ments, especially for printed circuit boards and
their parts. The methodology takes into account a
great number of influencing factors and above all
it enables an element stress profile to be taken into
account.
The standard IEC/TR 62380 as well as most of
the IEC standards might be bought in a paper or
electronic form. The prediction procedures based
on the methodology RDF 2000 are a part of
software products of most of the companies spe-
cializing in software development in the depend-
ability area. Other information can be found on
the IEC web pages (IEC 2017).
3.6  Telcordia SR-332
The standard Telcordia SR-332 – Reliability Pre-
diction Procedures for Electronic Equipment was
created by the Telcordia Technologies (Telecordia
2017) which arose from the company AT&T Bell
Laboratories. That is the reason why the stand-
ard is sometimes called the Bellcore SR-332. At
present the fourth edition of the standard Telcor-
dia SR-332 published in 2016 is the current one.
The methodology introduced in the standard
stems from the principles stated in MIL-HDBK-
217F, however, it describes special characteristics
of telecommunication industry better and enables
so called burning-in to be taken into account. The
prediction might be carried out by using three
different methods based on parts count method,
the data obtained by taking laboratory tests and
the data got by observing elements in the field. The
methodology is intended especially for commercial
electronic products and it is widely used in the area
of telecommunications.
The standard Telcordia SR-332 can be bought
in as a methodology (standard) or as a software
tool FD-ARPP-01 (Telecordia 2016). The predic-
tion procedures based on the standard Telcordia
SR-332 are a part of software products of most
of the companies specializing in software develop-
ment in the dependability area.
3.7  PDS method and data handbook
The PDS method and data were developed by
SINTEF and first time issued in 1998. The PDS
method handbook presents simple calculation
formulas for calculating Probability of Failure on
Demand, and provides unavailability formulas for
continuously (high demand mode) operating sys-
tems (SINTEF 2013a). The PDS data handbook
comprises recommended failure data on various
system instrumented system components, both
topside and subsea (SINTEF 2013b). The method
is widely used in the petroleum industry, but is also
applicable to other business sectors.
The PDS method is in line with the main prin-
ciples advocated in the IEC 61508/61511standards,
and is a very useful tool when implementing and
verifying quantitative (SIL—Safety Integrated
Level) requirements as described in these stand-
ards. The PDS method is continuously updated,
and new method and data handbooks were issued
in 2013. The data handbook is based on extensive
experience with operation of instrumented safety
2191
systems in the Norwegian petroleum industry and
presents data applicable for performing SIL analy-
ses according to IEC 61508/61511.
3.8  GJB/z 299B
The standard GJB/z 299B—Reliability Calculation
Model for Electronic Equipment was developed by
the Chinese Army and it was translated into Eng-
lish in May 2001. Sometimes the standard is called
China 299B.
The standard is based on the MIL-HDBK-217
and includes both a parts count and a parts stress
prediction method for electronic components. The
prediction according to this standard is supported
by most software products focused on reliability
prediction.
3.9  NSWC-11
The standard NSWC-11 – Handbook of Reliability
Prediction Procedures for Mechanical Equipment
was made by the Naval Surface Warfare Center—
Carderock Division (U.S. Navy 2017a) working as
a part of the United States Navy. The last version
was published in May 2011.
In the standard there are calculation models for
different types of mechanical elements used prima-
rily in the shipping industry (e.g. bearings, springs,
shafts, etc.). Using the models enables thermal
stress, force stress and a great deal of other influ-
ences to be considered.
The prediction procedures based on the stand-
ard or its previous revisions are a part of software
products of most of the companies specializing in
software development in the dependability area.
The standard NSWC-11, as well as software for
reliability calculation according this standard
might be found and loaded free of charge on the
Naval Surface Warfare Center web pages (U.S.
Navy 2017).
4 CONCLUSION
The paper does not intend to offer a complete list
of all databases and methodologies used for reli-
ability prediction but it just introduces the most
widespread and the most widely used present
databases and methodologies applied in the
area of components for electronic, electrical and
mechanical systems. Other databases and method-
ologies not mentioned in this chapter are specific
for corresponding application fields or for single
companies.
Individual prediction methods can produce very
different results. It is given by differences in used
methodologies and various sources of reliability
data. Very important role also plays the fact for prediction for complex electronic system (hundreds
what industrial sector the pertinent methodology of parts) using four selected methods. Results of
or database was developed. The potential differ- these reliability prediction are presented in Table 1.
ences in results of individual prediction methods From the results it follows that application of MIL-
application can be very well presented when reli- HDBK-227F produced 6 times greater failure rate
ability is calculated using the various methods for than application of Telecordia SR 332 in this case.
the same system and under the same operating and Results of calculation indicates that methodol-
environmental conditions. ogy used in MIL-HDBK-217F is really out-of-date
In the frame of a recent project realization and its application is not suitable in the case of
author of this contribution carried out reliability modern electronic systems.
At present the most respected databases applied
to the prediction of non-electronic elements reli-
Table 1.  Comparison of reliability prediction results for ability is the database NPRD-2016. Concerning
selected methods*. the area of electric and electronic elements reli-
ability prediction, the situation is slightly more
Failure rate complicated. The database EPRD-2014 is really
widespread and it contains a great deal of real ele-
Prediction method Failures/106 hours ments not included in other methodologies but it is
not possible there to consider such extent of influ-
Mil-Hdbk-217F (Notice 2) 16.13 encing factors. The reliability prediction based on
Mil-Hdbk-217G (Draft 4)  9.34
MIL-HDBK-217F is at present the most widely
217 Plus:2015  3.42
used methodology when predicting electronic ele-
Telecordia SR332 (Issue 4)  2.51
ments reliability but the standard has not been
*
Reliability prediction has been carried out for a complex updated since 1995 and it got quite outdated.
electronic subsystem (part of a high-resolution radar). Therefore the methodologies PRISM©, FIDES
All predictions have been done for the same operation and the most recent 217PlusTM provide different
and environmental conditions. approaches which are intended to overcome the

Table 2.  Survey of selected methods for reliability prediction.

Prediction method Included components Applied industry Issue

NPRD-2016 Mechanical, electromechanical, and Military/Commercial 2016

electronic components and assemblies
EPRD-2014 Electronic parts—integrated circuits, discrete Military/Commercial 2014
semiconductors (diodes, transistors,
optoelectronic devices), resistors,
capacitors, and inductors/transformers
FMD-2016 Electronic, electrical, electromechanical, Military/Commercial 2016
and mechanical components
(information on failure modes)
SPIDR Electronic, electrical, electromechanical, Military/Commercial 2006
and mechanical components
OREDA-2015 Electronic, electrical, electromechanical, Oil and gas 2015
and mechanical onshore and offshore
equipment (including subsea fields)
PDS Method and Data Components of control and safety systems Petroleum (generally for 2013
Handbook instrumented safety systems)
MIL-HDBK-217F, Notice 2 Electric and electronic components Military/Commercial 1995
MIL-HDBK-217G (draft 4) Electric and electronic components Military/Commercial 2010
PRISM Electronic and non-electronic components Military/Commercial 2003
217Plus:2015 Electric and electronic components Military/Commercial 2015
FIDES 2009 Electronic, electrical, and electromechanical Aviation and military 2010
elements and parts of printed circuits
IEC/TR 62380 Electronic elements and parts of printed Telecommunication 2004
circuits
SR-332 (Issue 4) Electronic elements Telecommunication 2016
GJB/z 299C Electric and electronic components Military/commercial 2006
NSWC-11 Mechanical equipment and components Military/commercial 2011

2192
insufficiency of the standard MIL-HDBK-217F.
However, unsatisfactory practical applicabil-
ity concerning the methodology FIDES, and
high purchase costs concerning the methodology
PRISM© are limiting factors when using them.
The decision on which method of reliability
prediction to use is made after considering the
reason why the prediction is performed, and above
all, after taking into account the requirements of
a customer for whom the prediction is made. It is
always the real situation that counts when selecting
a method of reliability prediction by a user. Fol-
lowing practical experience of the authors, most of
the elements reliability prediction of components
for electrical, electronic and mechanical systems
might be performed by using a combination of
the databases NPRD-2016, EPRD-2014 and the
methodology 217PlusTM.
Survey of the presented prediction methods with
potential areas of application you can see in Table 2.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
This paper has been prepared with the support
of the Ministry of Defence of the Czech Repub-
lic (Partial Project for Institutional Development,
K-202, Department of Combat and Special Vehi-
cles, University of Defence, Brno).
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