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There are four basic types of movements for time series and are known as
Components of time series.
Similar products and markets often display similar growth patterns or life
cycles. The S-shaped product life cycle is a typical example. It is generally
divided into four stages:
As stated earlier, the ups and downs in business activities are the
effects of cyclical variation. A business cycle showing these
oscillatory movements has to pass through four phases-prosperity,
recession, depression and recovery. In a business, these four phases
are completed by passing one to another in this order.
Irregular Component (I): The erratic or residual fluctuations in a time
series that exist after taking into account the systematic effects -- trend,
seasonal and cyclical. These variations occur in completely unpredictable
manner for short duration and non-repeating and also called accidental
variations. Irregular variation may be divided into two components:
Episodic fluctuations
Residual fluctuations.
series, estimate the values of the components. These estimates can be used
in the process what is called seasonal adjustment. It is difficult to deal
with the cyclical component of a time series. To the extent that cycles can
be determined from historical data, both their lengths (measured in years)
and their magnitudes (differences between highs and lows) are far from
constant. This lack of a consistent wavelike pattern makes distinguishing
cycles from smoothly evolving trends difficult. Consequently, to keep
things relatively simple, we will assume any cycle in the data is part of the
trend. Initially, then, we consider only three components, T, S, and I.
The two simplest models relating the observed value (𝑌𝑡 ) of a time
series to the trend (𝑇𝑡 ), seasonal (𝑆𝑡 ), and irregular (𝐼𝑡 ) components
are the additive components model:
𝒀𝒕 = 𝑻𝒕 + 𝑺𝒕 + 𝑰𝒕
𝒀𝒕 = 𝑻𝒕 × 𝑺𝒕 × 𝑰𝒕
The additive components model works best when the time series being
analyzed has roughly the same variability throughout the length of the
series. That is, all the values of the series fall essentially within a band of
constant width centered on the trend.
The multiplicative components model works best when the variability of
the time series increases with the level. That is, the values of the series
spread out as the trend increases, and the set of observations has the
appearance of a megaphone or funnel.
1,000
900
Milk Production
800
700
600
50 100 150
Month
900
800
700
Sale
600
s
500
Monthly
400
300
200
100
0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Month
Now, we briefly talk about linear trend. Later, we will discuss nonlinear
trend. There are various methods to compute the trend. Among them two
well-known methods are
𝑇̂𝑡 = 𝑎 + 𝑏𝑡
where
𝑎 = 𝑌̅ − 𝑏 𝑡̅
and
𝑛 ∑ 𝑡𝑌−∑𝑌∑𝑡
𝑏= 2 .
𝑛∑𝑡 2 −(∑ 𝑡)
and
𝑛
𝑛(𝑛 + 1)(2𝑛 + 1)
∑ 𝑖2 =
6
𝑖
Example 2: The table below shows the quarterly sales for Toys
International for the years 2001 through 2006. The sales are reported in
millions of dollars. Determine quarterly moving averages.
Year Quarter Sales Four-Quarter Centered
($ moving average Moving
millions)
Average
2001 Winter 6.7 * *
Spring 4.6 8.500 *
Summer 10.0 8.450 8.4750
Fall 12.7 8.450 8.4500
2002 Winter 6.5 8.400 8.4250
Spring 4.6 8.625 8.5125
Summer 9.8 8.725 8.6750
Fall 13.6 8.825 8.7750
2003 Winter 6.9 8.975 8.9000
Spring 5.0 9.100 9.0375
Summer 10.4 9.125 9.1125
Fall 14.1 9.250 9.1875
2004 Winter 7.0 9.350 9.3000
Spring 5.5 9.575 9.4625
Summer 10.8 9.600 9.5875
Fall 15.0 9.650 9.6250
2005 Winter 7.1 9.725 9.6875
Spring 5.7 9.600 9.6625
Summer 11.1 9.825 9.7125
Fall 14.5 9.950 9.8875
2006 Winter 8.0 10.025 9.9875
Spring 6.2 10.125 10.0750
Summer 11.4 * *
Fall 14.9 * *