2009 December Oilwatch Monthly

Oilwatch Monthly - December 2009
16 December 2009 - (next update: 19 January 2010)

Your coverage on the latest worldwide oil market developments
ASPO Netherlands
Rembrandt Koppelaar +31 (0)6 44082419

The importance of Iraqi oil production contact@peakoil.nl
Definitions www.peakoil.nl
European, Russian and Chinese oil companies including Shell, Lukoil, CNPC
and BP are having a field day winning auctions to develop big Iraqi oil fields. Crude Oil, petroleum found in liquid and semi
Shell and Petronas have obtained the right to develop Majnoon with 7 liquid form including deepsea oil and Powered by www.theoildrum.com
billion barrels of reserves, Lukoil and Statoil the West Qurna 2 field which in lease condensates.
total holds 9.75 billion barrels, and Total and Petronas the Halfaya field with
0.5 billion barrels. The only US company that secured a deal is ExxonMobil Liquids, all forms of liquid fuels including
over the development of West Qurna 1, quite a disappointment given the conventional, heavy, and extra heavy oil,
amount of money the US has invested in Iraq through the Iraqi war. oil shale, oil sands, natural gas liquids, lease
condensates, gas-to-liquids, coal-to-liquids,
Iraq has since 2008 produced a steady amount around 2.4 million and in and biofuels. Newsletter Index
recent months surpassed 2.5 million barrels per day, a level last seen in
the year 2000. New field developments by foreign oil companies when One Barrel of oil is equivalent to 159 litres
succesfull can result in a quick doubling of production over a time-span Page 2 - 4: World Oil Production
of five years or less. Putting OPEC even firmer behind the driving wheel as Page 5: OPEC Oil Production
in its current position. In theory in case of a low growth economic scenario Chart 1: Oil Price Weighed Average of Blends Page 6: Non-OPEC Oil Production
resulting in continued production capacity expansion. Peak production
Page 7: OPEC Oil Consumption
capacity could fall beyond mid next decade in case of a swift development 140
of Iraqi’s oil fields. Page 8 - 12: OECD Oil Consumption
Dollars per Barrel
120 Page 13: Asia Oil Consumption
As demand is the driver of oil markets, and a continued shrinkage of the Euros per Barrel
Page 14 - 16: OECD Crude Oil Stocks
economy under a W or L shaped recession is more likely, the development
of Iraqi oil is even more important due to its low cost structure. The costs to 100 Page 17 - 19: Oil Imports & exports
develop these fields are in the order of 10 to 20 dollars per barrel excluding Page 20: OPEC Spare Capacity
war subsidies already incurred. Low cost Iraqi oil that ‘floods’ the market 80 Page 21 - 23: Middle East Production Charts
bringing oil prices down as supply vastly outmatches demand can give a
Page 24: Europe Production Charts
huge boom to the economy. Albeit temporarily for only about five year as 60
continued declines will eventually outweigh increases, it can create the Page 25 - 27: Africa Production Charts
breathing space to make some swift decisions to add resilience to national 40 Page 28: Asia Production Charts
economies. In that sense the Iraqi war may not have been fruitless but Page 29: Former USSR Production Charts
create a boon for the global economy. For better or worse remains to be 20 Page 30 - 31: North America Production Charts
seen.
Page 32: South America Production Charts
0
Rembrandt Koppelaar - President ASPO Netherlands Page 33: Oceania Production Charts
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Energy Information Admistration
ASPO Netherlands World Oil Production
World liquid fuels production World crude oil production World natural gas liquids production
In November 2009 world production of all liquid fuels increased Latest figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Natural Gas Liquids production from natural gas fields increased
by 200,000 barrels per day from October according to the latest show that crude oil production including lease condensates by 87,000 b/d from August to September 2009 according to the
fgures of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Resulting in increased by 261,000 b/d from August to September 2009. latest International Petroleum Monthly of the Energy Information
total world liquid fuels production of 85.94 million b/d. Liquids Resulting in total production of crude oil including lease Administration (EIA). Resulting in a total NGL production of 8.26
production for October 2009 was revised upwards in the IEA condensates of 72.59 million b/d. million b/d.
Oil Market Report of November from 85.61 to 85.74 million b/d.
Average global liquid fuels production in 2009 up to November
was 84.86 versus 86.6 and 85.32 million b/d in 2008 and 2007.
Chart 2: Liquids Production January 2004 - November 2009 Chart 3: Crude Oil Production January 2004 - September 2009 Chart 4: Liquids Production January 2004 - September 2009
90 75 8.4
8.2
88 74
8.0
7.8
Million barrels per day
86 73
7.6
84 72 7.4
7.2
82 71
7.0
Liquids (IEA)
6.8
80 70
Crude Oil (EIA) Natural Gas Liquids (EIA)
Liquids (EIA)
6.6
78 69 6.4
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: International Energy Agency & Energy Information Administration Source: Energy Information Administration Source: Energy Information Administration
Page 2
World Oil Production ASPO Netherlands
World conventional crude versus liquids production ratio World unconventional liquid fuels production World energy content from liquid fuels production
Approximately 85% of world liquid fuels production in 2008 came In 2008 the biggest part of unconventional liquid fuels production In production statistics all liquid fuels are aggregated as total ‘oil’
from conventional crude oil including lease condensates. The came from Natural Gas Liquids at 11% or 7.94 million b/d. production while containing different amounts of energy per
remaining share of 15% was produced by unconventional sources Secondly, extra heavy crude and bitumen at 3.4% or 2.68 million barrel produced. For example, a barrel of crude oil contains around
including Biofuels, Extra Heavy Oil, Tar Sands, Polar Oil and Natural b/d of which 1.27 million b/d from Canadian oil sands and 1.41 5.8 million British Thermal Units while a similar barrel of natural
Gas Liquids. In absolute amounts unconventional production has million b/d from other sources. Thirdly, Biofuels at 1.8% or 1.45 gas liquids contains 4.2 million BTU. Conversion to BTU’s shows
increased steadily, from 4 million b/d at the end of the 1970s, to million b/d. A and finally Polar Oil at a production rate of 840,000 that actual available energy worldwide in June 2009 was 3.3%
approximately 12.9 mb/d in 2008, excluding lease condensates. b/d in 2008 or 1.1% of total liquids supply. lower than liquids statistics counted in barrels would suggest.
Chart 5: World Crude and Liquids production 1938 - 2008 Chart 6: Unconventional Oil Production 1938 - 2008 Chart 7: World Production in BTU January 2003 - Nov. 2009
100 14 550
Liquids Biofuels Biofuels
90 X-Heavy crude (excl. Canada)
Conventional crude 525 Natural Gas Liquids
12 Canadian Oil Sands
80 Polar Oil Crude Oil
Natural Gas Liquids 500
70 10
Trillion BTU per day

475
60
8
50 450
6
40
425
30 4
400
20
2 375
10
0 0 350
1938 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 1938 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: International Energy Agency & Energy Information Administration Source: EIA, EIA & CAPP Source: International Energy Agency
Page 3
ASPO Netherlands World Oil Production
World biofuels production IEA liquid fuels versus liquids excluding biofuels production EIA liquids versus IEA liquids excluding biofuels production
Total world biofuel in November 2009 is estimated to be 1.69 Total liquid fuels production excluding biofuels in November Liquid fuels production figures published by the Energy
million b/d based on statistics compiled from the Energy 2009 is estimated to be 84.25 million b/d, an increase of 20,000 Information Administration in their International Petroleum
Information Administration, the International Energy Agency and b/d from October production according to the latest figures of the Monthly excludes biofuels produced in countries beside the
the Brazilian ministry of Energy. With an estimated 750,000 b/d International Energy Agency. United States and Brazil. The remaining difference is caused
from the United States, 510,000 b/d from Brazil and 430,000 b/d by discrepancies between natural gas liquids and Canadian
from other countries. unconventional oil production.
Chart 8: World Biofuels Production Jan. 2004 - November 2009 Chart 9: IEA Liquids comparison January 2004 - November 2009 Chart 10: EIA & EIA Liquids Comparison Jan. 2004 - Nov. 2009
1.8 90 88
1.6 87
88
86
1.4
86 85
1.2
84
1.0 84
83
0.8 82
82
0.6
80 81
0.4
80 Liquids excluding biofuels (IEA)
Liquids excluding biofuels (IEA)
78
0.2 Biofuels (IEA) Liquids (IEA) Liquids (EIA)
79
0.0 76 78
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: IEA, EIA, Brazilian Ministry of Energy Source: Energy Information Administration Source: Energy Information Administration
Page 4
OPEC Oil Production ASPO Netherlands
OPEC liquid fuels production OPEC crude oil production OPEC natural gas liquids production
Total liquid fuels production in OPEC countries increased by Total crude oil production excluding lease condensates of the OPEC natural gas liquids remained stable from October to
60,000 b/d from October to November to a level of 34.21 million OPEC cartel increased by 60,000 b/d to a level of 29.04 million b/d, November 2009 at a level of 5.17 million b/d. Average OPEC
b/d. Average liquid fuels production in 2009 up to November from October to November 2009, according to the latest available natural gas liquids production in 2009 up to November was 4.99
was 33.66 million b/d, versus 36.09 and 35.02 million b/d in estimate of the IEA. Average crude oil production in 2009 up to million b/d, versus 4.66 and 4.55 million b/d in respectively 2008
respectively 2008 and 2007. All time high production of OPEC November was 28.68 million b/d, versus 31.43 and 30.37 million and 2007.
liquid fuels stands at 36.58 million b/d reached in July 2008. b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Chart 11: OPEC Liquids Production Jan. 2004 - November 2009 Chart 12: OPEC Crude Oil Production Jan. 2004 - Nov. 2009 Chart 13: OPEC NGL Production January 2004 - November 2009
38 33 5.5
37 32
5.0
36
31
35 4.5
30
34
29 4.0
33
28
32 3.5
27
31
Liquids (IEA) Crude Oil (IEA) 3.0 Natural Gas Liquids (IEA)
30 Liquids (EIA) 26 Crude Oil (EIA) Natural Gas Liquids (EIA)
29 25 2.5
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Page 5
ASPO Netherlands Non-OPEC Oil Production
Non-OPEC liquid fuels production Non-OPEC crude oil production Non-OPEC natural gas liquids production
Total liquid fuels production excluding biofuels in Non-OPEC Total Non-OPEC crude oil production excluding lease condensates Non-OPEC natural gas liquids production increased by 114,000
countries increased by 140,000 b/d from October to November increased by 311,000 b/d to a level of 41.59 million b/d, from from August to September to a level of 3.36 million b/d.
2009. Resulting in a production level of 50.04 million b/d August to September 2009, according to the latest available Average Non-OPEC natural gas liquids production in 2009 up to
according to the International Energy Agency. Average liquid estimate of the EIA. Average crude oil production in 2009 up to September was 3.36 million b/d, versus 3.65 and 3.79 million b/d
fuels production in 2009 up to November was 49.62 million b/d, September was 41.46 million b/d, versus 41.32 and 41.80 million in respectively 2008 and 2007.
versus 49.32 and 49.34 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Chart 14: Non-OPEC Liquids Production Jan. 2004 - Nov. 2009 Chart 15: Non-OPEC Crude Oil Production Jan. 2004 - Sept. 2009 Chart 16: Non-OPEC NGL Production January 2004 - Sept. 2009
51 43 4.5
43
50
4.0
42
49
42
3.5
48
41
47
3.0
41
46
40
Liquids (IEA)
2.5
45 Crude oil (EIA) Natural Gas Liquids (EIA)
Liquids (EIA) 40
44 39 2.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Page 6
OPEC Oil Consumption ASPO Netherlands
OPEC oil consumption Iran oil consumption Saudi Arabia oil consumption
Oil consumption in all OPEC oil producers combined decreased by Oil consumption in Iran increased by 32,000 b/d from August to Oil consumption in Saudi Arabia decreased by 313,000 b/d from
267,000 b/d from August to September. Resulting in a consumption September 2009 to a level of 1.52 million b/d. Average Iranian August to September 2009 to a level of 2.07 million b/d. Average
level of 6.29 million b/d. Average OPEC oil consumption in 2009 oil consumption in 2009 up to September was 1.52 million b/d, Saudi Arabian oil consumption in 2009 up to September was 1.87
up to September was 5.99 million b/d, versus 5.76 and 5.30 million versus 1.64 and 1.52 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. million b/d, versus 1.65 and 1.52 million b/d in respectively 2008
b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. and 2007.
Chart 17: OPEC Oil Consumption January 2004 - Sept. 2009 Chart 18: Iran Oil Consumption January 2004 - September 2009 Chart 19: Saudi Arabia Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - Sept. 2009
7 2.4 2.6
2.2 2.4
6
2.0 2.2
5 2.0
1.8
1.8
4 1.6
1.6
1.4
3
1.4
1.2
2 1.2
1.0
1.0
1 0.8
0.8
0.6
0 0.6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 0.4 0.4
Iran oil consumption (JODI) Saudi Arabia oil consumption (JODI)
Iraq Venezuela
UAE Saudi Arabia 0.2 0.2
Qatar Nigeria
Libya Kuwait
Iran Ecuador 0.0 0.0
Angola Algeria
12m rolling average 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative
Page 7
ASPO Netherlands OECD Oil Consumption
OECD oil consumption North America oil consumption European Union oil consumption
Oil consumption in OECD countries increased by 1.24 million Oil consumption in North America increased by 396,000 b/d from Oil consumption in the European Union increased by 924,000
b/d from August to September. Resulting in a consumption August to September. Resulting in a consumption level of 23.01 b/d from August to September 2009. Resulting in a consumption
level of 44.29 million b/d in September 2009. Average OECD oil million b/d in September 2009. Average oil consumption in North level of 14.84 million b/d according to JODI statistics. Average
consumption in 2009 up to September was 43.86 million b/d, America in 2009 up to September was 22.53 million b/d, versus consumption in the European Union in 2009 up to September was
versus 46.10 and 47.68 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. 23.50 and 24.72 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. 14.6 million b/d, versus 14.25 and 14.32 million b/d in respectively
2008 and 2007.
Chart 20: OECD Oil Consumption January 2004 - Sept. 2009 Chart 21: North America Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - Sept. 2009 Chart 22: EU-27 Oil Consumption January 2004 - Sept. 2009
52.0 26.6 15.6
51.0
26.0 15.2
50.0
25.4
49.0 14.8
48.0 24.8
14.4
47.0 24.2
14.0
46.0
23.6
45.0 13.6
23.0
44.0
13.2
43.0 22.4
42.0 12.8
21.8
41.0 12.4
21.2
40.0 OECD oil consumption (JODI) North America oil consumption (JODI) EU-27 oil consumption (JODI)
20.6 12.0
39.0
38.0 20.0 11.6

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Page 8
OECD Oil Consumption ASPO Netherlands
United States oil consumption Mexico oil consumption Canada oil consumption
Oil consumption in the US increased by 149,000 b/d from August Oil consumption in Mexico increased by 162,000 b/d from August Oil consumption in Canada increased by 86,000 b/d from August
to September 2009. Resulting in a consumption level of 18.88 to September. Resulting in a consumption level of 2.07 million b/d to September 2009. Resulting in a consumption level of 2.07
million b/d in September 2009. Average consumption of oil in the in September 2009. Average oil consumption in Mexico in 2009 million b/d in September. Average consumption in Canada in
US in 2009 up to September was 18.7 million b/d, versus 19.50 and up to September was 1.87 million b/d, versus 1.95 and 1.94 million 2009 up to September was 1.96 million b/d, versus 2.06 and 2.08
20.70 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Chart 23: US Oil Consumption January 2004 - September 2009 Chart 24: Mexico Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - September 2009 Chart 25: Canada Oil Consumption January 2004 - Sept. 2009
22 2.3 2.3
21 2.2
2.2
2.1
20 2.1
2.0
19 2.0
1.9
18 1.9
1.8
17 1.8
1.7
16 1.7 Canada oil consumption (JODI)

US oil consumption (JODI) 1.6 Mexico oil consumption (JODI)
15 1.5 1.6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Page 9
France oil consumption Germany oil consumption Italy oil consumption

Oil consumption in France increased by 316,000 b/d from August Oil consumption in Germany increased by 283,000 b/d from Oil consumption in Italy increased by 169,000 b/d from August
to September Resulting in a consumption level of 1.92 million b/d August to September. Resulting in a consumption level of 2.52 to September. Resulting in a consumption level of 1.6 million b/d
in September 2009. Average consumption of oil in France in 2009 million b/d in September 2009. Average oil consumption in in September 2009. Average consumption in Italy in 2009 up to
up to September was 1.85 million b/d, versus 1.94 and 1.94 million Germany in 2009 up to September was 2.44 million b/d, versus September was 1.53 million b/d, versus 1.60 and 1.67 million b/d
b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. 2.56 and 2.47 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Chart 26: France Oil Consumption January 2004 - Sept. 2009 Chart 27: Germany Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - Sept. 2009 Chart 28: Italy Oil Consumption January 2004 - September 2009
2.3 3.0 2.2
2.9 2.1
2.2
2.8 2.0
2.1 2.7 1.9

2.6 1.8
2.0
2.5 1.7
1.9 2.4 1.6
2.3 1.5
1.8
2.2 1.4
1.7 2.1 1.3
2.0 1.2
1.6 France oil consumption (JODI) Germany oil consumption (JODI) Italy oil consumption (JODI)
1.9 1.1
1.5 1.8 1.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Page 10
OECD Oil Consumption ASPO Netherlands
Spain oil consumption United Kingdom oil consumption Poland oil consumption
Oil consumption in Spain increased by 67,000 b/d from August to Oil consumption in the United Kingdom remained stable at a Oil consumption in Poland increased by 23,000 from August to
September. Resulting in a consumption level of 1.47 million b/d in consumption level of 1.54 million b/d from August to September September. Resulting in a consumption level of 601,000 b/d in
September 2009. Average oil consumption in Spain in 2009 up to 2009. Average oil consumption in the United Kingdom in 2009 up September 2009. Average consumption in Poland in 2009 up to
September was 1.48 million b/d, versus 1.54 and 1.59 million b/d to September was 1.58 million b/d, versus 1.61 and 1.67 million September was 523,000 b/d, versus 527,000 and 507,000 b/d in
in respectively 2008 and 2007. b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. respectively 2008 and 2007.
Chart 29: Spain Oil Consumption January 2004 - Sept. 2009 Chart 30: UK Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - September 2009 Chart 31: Poland Oil Consumption January 2004 - Sept. 2009
1.8 2.2 0.8
2.1
0.7
1.7 2.0
1.9 0.6
1.6 1.8
0.5
1.7
1.5 1.6 0.4
1.5
0.3
1.4 1.4
1.3 0.2
1.3 1.2
Spain oil consumption (JODI) UK oil consumption (JODI) 0.1 Poland oil consumption (JODI)
1.1
1.2 1.0 0.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Page 11
Netherlands oil consumption Japan oil consumption South Korea oil consumption
Oil consumption in the Netherlands decreased by 115,000 b/d Oil consumption in Japan decreased by 66,000 b/d from August Oil consumption in South Korea decreased by 36,000 b/d from
from August to September 2009 resulting in a consumption to September 2009 resulting in a consumption level of 4.18 August to September 2009 resulting in a consumption level of
level of 714,000 b/d. Average oil consumption in the Netherlands million b/d. Average oil consumption in Japan in 2009 up to 2.09 million b/d. Average consumption in South Korea in 2009 up
in 2009 up to September was 866,000 b/d, versus 945,000 and September was 4.35 million b/d, versus 4.92 and 5.13 million b/d to September was 2.22 million b/d, versus 2.21 and 2.29 million
920,0000 b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. in respectively 2008 and 2007. b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Chart 32: Netherlands Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - Sept. 2009 Chart 33: Japan Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - September 2009 Chart 34: South Korea Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - Sept. 2009
1.2 7.0 3.0
6.5 2.8
1.1
6.0 2.6
1.0
5.5 2.4
0.9 5.0 2.2
4.5 2.0
0.8
4.0 1.8
0.7
Netherlands oil consumption (JODI) 3.5 Japan oil consumption (JODI) 1.6 South Korea oil consumption (JODI)
0.6 3.0 1.4

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Page 12
Asia Oil Consumption ASPO Netherlands
China oil consumption India oil consumption Taiwan oil consumption

Oil consumption in China decreased by 424,000 b/d from August Oil consumption in India increased by 79,000 b/d from August to Oil consumption in Taiwan increased by 25,000 b/d from August
to September resulting in a consumption level of 8.86 million b/d September resulting in a consumption level of 2.72 million b/d. to September 2009 resulting in a consumption level of 991,000
according to JODI statistics. Average oil consumption in China in Average oil consumption in India in 2009 up to September was b/d. Average consumption in Taiwan in 2009 up to September
2009 up to September was 7.96 million b/d, versus 6.92 and 7.29 2.84 million b/d, versus 2.60 and 2.43 million b/d in respectively was 972,000 b/d, versus 978,000 and 958,000 b/d in respectively
million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. 2008 and 2007. 2008 and 2007.
Chart 35: China Oil Consumption January 2004 - Sept. 2009 Chart 36: India Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - Sept. 2009 Chart 37: Taiwan Oil Consumption January 2004 - Sept. 2009
10.0 3.4 1.4
9.5 3.2 1.3

9.0 3.0
1.2
8.5
2.8
1.1
8.0
2.6
7.5 1.0
2.4
7.0 0.9
2.2
6.5 0.8
2.0
6.0
0.7
1.8
5.5
0.6
5.0 1.6
China oil consumption (JODI) India oil consumption (JODI) Taiwan oil consumption (JODI)
4.5 1.4 0.5
4.0 1.2 0.4

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Page 13
ASPO Netherlands OECD Crude Oil Stocks
OECD crude oil stocks OECD product stocks Europe crude oil stocks
Industrial inventories of crude oil in the OECD in October 2009 Industrial product stocks in the OECD in October 2009 declined to Industrial inventories of crude oil in OECD Europe in October 2009
remained stable from September at a level of 968 million according 1465 million from 1499 million barrels in September according to decreased to 322 from 329 million barrels in September according
to the latest IEA statistics. Current OECD crude oil stocks are 6 the latest IEA Statistics. Current OECD product stocks are 63million to the latest IEA statistics. Current OECD Europe crude oil stocks
million barrels higher than the five year average of 962 million barrels higher than the five year average of 1402 million barrels. are 14 million barrels lower than the five year average of 336
barrels. In the November Oil Market Report of the IEA a total stock In the November Oil Market Report of the IEA a total stock level of million barrels. In the November Oil Market Report of the IEA a
level of 976 million barrels was tabulated for September which has 1498 million barrels was tabulated for September which has been total stock level of 338 million barrels was tabulated for September
been revised downwards to 968 million barrels in the December revised upwards to 1499 million barrels in the December edition. which has been revised downwards to 329 million barrels in the
edition. December edition.
Chart 38: OECD Crude Oil Stocks January 2004 - October 2009 Chart 39: OECD Product Stocks January 2004 - October 2009 Chart 40: Europe Crude Oil Stocks January 2004 - October 2009
1200 1600 425
400
1100 1500
375
1000 1400 350

Million barrels
325
900 1300
300
800 1200 275
250
700 1100
OECD crude oil stocks (IEA) OECD product stocks (IEA) Europe crude oil stocks (IEA)
225
600 1000 200

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: International Energy Agency Source: International Energy Agency Source: International Energy Agency
Page 14
OECD Crude Oil Stocks ASPO Netherlands
Europe product stocks Pacific crude oil stocks Pacific product stocks
Industrial product stocks in OECD Europe in October 2009 Industrial inventories of crude oil in OECD Pacific in September Industrial product stocks in OECD Pacific in October 2009 increased
decreased to 564 million from 573 million barrels in September 2009 increased to a level of 171 million from 166 million barrels to 182 million from 185 million barrels in September according to
according to the latest IEA statistics. Current OECD Europe in September according to the latest IEA statistics. Current OECD the latest IEA Statistics. Current OECD Pacific product stocks are
product stocks are 13 million barrels higher than the five year Pacific crude oil stocks are 1 million barrels higher than the five 1 million barrels higher than the five year average of 181 million
average of 551 million barrels. In the November Oil Market Report year average of 170 million barrels. In the November Oil Market barrels.
of the IEA a total stock level of 571 million barrels was tabulated Report of the IEA a total stock level of 158 million barrels was
for September which has been revised upwards to 573 million tabulated for September which has been revised upwards to 166
barrels in the December edition. million barrels in the December edition.
Chart 41: Europe Product Stocks January 2004 - October 2009 Chart 42: Pacific Crude Oil Stocks January 2004 - October 2009 Chart 43: Pacific Product Stocks January 2004 - October 2009
650 250 250
625
225
225
600
200
575
200
175
550
Million barrels
525 150 175
500
125
150
475
100
450
125
Europe product stocks (IEA) Pacific crude oil stocks (IEA) Pacific product stocks (IEA)
75
425
400 50 100
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Page 15
ASPO Netherlands OECD Crude Oil Stocks
North America crude oil stocks North America product stocks US gasoline stocks
Industrial inventories of crude oil in OECD North America in Industrial product stocks in North America in September 2009 Gasoline stocks in the United States in November 2009 increased
October 2009 remained stable at 474 million barrels from decreased to 719 million from 741 million barrels in September to 211 million from 209 million barrels in October according to the
September according to the latest IEA statistics. Current OECD according to the latest IEA Statistics. Current North American latest EIA Statistics. Current Gasoline stocks are 3 million barrels
North America crude oil stocks are 18 million barrels higher than product stocks are 48 million barrels higher than the five year higher than the five year average of 208 million barrels.
the five year average of 456 million barrels. In the November Oil average of 671 million barrels. In the November Oil Market Report
Market Report of the IEA a total stock level of 480 million barrels of the IEA a total stock level of 742 million barrels was tabulated
was tabulated for September which has been revised downwards for August which has been revised downwards to 741 million
to 474 million barrels in the December edition. barrels in the November edition.
Chart 44: North America Crude Oil Stocks Jan. 2004 - Oct. 2009 Chart 45: North America Product Stocks Jan. 2004 - Oct. 2009 Chart 46: United States Gasoline Stocks Jan. 2004 - Nov. 2009
600 800 300
575
275
550 750
525
250
500 700
475
225
Million barrels
450 650
425 200
400 600
175
375
350 550
150
325
300 North America crude oil stocks (IEA) 500 North America product stocks (IEA) US gasoline stocks (EIA)
125
275
250 450 100

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: International Energy Agency Source: International Energy Agency Source: Energy Information Administration
Page 16
Oil Imports & Exports ASPO Netherlands
Mexico oil exports United Kingdom oil exports Norway oil exports
Oil exports from Mexico decreased by 172,000 b/d from 4th qrt. Oil exports from the United Kingdom decreased by 73,000 b/d Oil exports from Norway increased by 37,000 b/d from 4th qrt.
2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 1.40 million b/d. Average oil 4th qrt. 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 876,000 b/d. Average 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 1.91 million b/d. Average oil
export from Mexico in 2008 was 1.55 million b/d, versus 1.85 and oil export from the United Kingdom in 2008 was 957,000 b/d, export from Norway in 2008 was 1.67 million b/d, versus 1.97 and
2.04 million b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006. versus 1.02 and 1.00 million b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006. 2.17 million b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006.
Since 2004 the United Kingdom became a net importer of oil. Net
imports were 186,000 b’/d in 1st qrt. 2009.
Chart 47: Mexico oil exports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009 Chart 48: UK oil exports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009 Chart 49: Norway oil exports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009
4.0 3.0 3.6

2.8 3.4
3.5 2.6 3.2
2.4 3.0
3.0 2.2
2.8
2.0
2.6
2.5
1.8
2.4
1.6
2.0 2.2
1.4
2.0
1.2
1.5
1.8
1.0
1.6
1.0 0.8
0.6 1.4
Liquids exports (IEA) Liquids exports (IEA) Liquids exports (IEA)
0.4 1.2
0.5 Liquids Production (IEA)
Liquids Production (IEA) Liquids Production (IEA)
0.2 Liquids imports (IEA) 1.0
0.0 0.0 0.8

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Page 17
ASPO Netherlands Oil Imports & Exports
Denmark oil exports Australia oil exports Japan oil imports

Oil exports from Denmark decreased by 17,000 b/d from 4th qrt. Oil exports from Australia decreased by 47,000 b/d from 4th qrt. Oil imports in Japan decreased by 64,000 b/d from 4th qrt. 2008
2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 167,000 b/d. Average oil export 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 260,000 b/d. Average oil export to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 3.87 million b/d. Average oil import in
from Denmark in 2008 was 184,000 b/d, versus 191,000 and from Australia in 2008 was 270,000 b/d, versus 252,000 b/d and Japan in 2008 was 4.12 million b/d, versus 4.09 and 4.15 million
233,000 b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006. 217,000 b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006. b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006.
Chart 50: Denmark oil exports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009 Chart 51: Australia oil exports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009 Chart 52: Japan Oil Imports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009
0.60 1.0 5.0

Liquids exports (IEA) Liquids exports (IEA)
0.55 0.9
Liquids Production (IEA) Liquids Production (IEA) 4.8
0.50 Liquids imports (IEA)
0.8 Liquids imports (IEA)
4.6
0.45
0.7
0.40 4.4
0.35 0.6
4.2
0.30 0.5
4.0
0.25 0.4
0.20 3.8
0.3
0.15
3.6
0.2
0.10
Liquids (IEA)
0.1 3.4
0.05
0.00 0.0 3.2

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Page 18
Oil Imports & Exports ASPO Netherlands
OECD oil imports United States oil imports OECD Europe oil imports
Oil imports in the group of OECD countries decreased by 1.60 Oil imports in the United States decreased by 661,000 b/d from 4th Oil imports from OECD Europe decreased by 854,000 b/d from 4th
million b/d from 4th qrt. 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 30.43 qrt. 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 10.84 million b/d. Average oil qrt. 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 11.98 million b/d. Average
million b/d. Average oil import in OECD countries in 2008 was import in the United States in 2008 was 11.43 million b/d, versus oil import in OECD Europe in 2008 was 12.98 million b/d, versus
32.19 million b/d, versus 32.47 and 32.7 million b/d in respectively 11.55 and 11.77 million b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006. 13.05 and 13.18 million b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006.
2007 and 2006.
Chart 53: OECD Oil Imports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009 Chart 54: US Oil Imports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009 Chart 55: OECD Europe Oil Imports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009
34.0 13.0 14.0
33.5
12.5
13.5
33.0
12.0
32.5
13.0
11.5
32.0
31.5 11.0 12.5
31.0
10.5
12.0
30.5
10.0
30.0
Liquids (IEA) 11.5
Liquids (IEA) Liquids (IEA)
9.5
29.5
29.0 9.0 11.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Page 19
ASPO Netherlands OPEC Spare Capacity
IEA OPEC spare capacity EIA OPEC spare capacity Saudi Arabia spare capacity
According to the International Energy Agency total effective spare Total OPEC spare production capacity in November 2009 increased Spare capacity in Saudi Arabia increased to 2.90 million b/d
capacity (excluding Iraq, Venezuela and Nigeria) decreased from by 11,000 b/d to a level of 4.08 million b/d from 3.97 million b/d in November from a level of 2.80 million b/d in October 2009
October to November 2009 by 70,000 b/d to a level of 5.35 million in October according to the Energy Information Administration. according to the Energy Information Administration. Statistics
b/d. Of total effective spare capacity an additional 3.32 million b/d Of total November spare capacity 2.90 million b/d is estimated to from the International Energy Agency show a decrease in Saudi
is estimated to be producible by Saudi Arabia within 90 days, the be producible by Saudi Arabia, 0.21 million b/d from Qatar, 0.17 spare capacity to 3.32 million from 3.4 million b/d from October
United Arab Emirates 0.58 million b/d, Angola 0.19 million b/d, million b/d from Angola, 0.30 million b/d from Kuwait, 0.30 million to November 2009.
Iran 0.30 million b/d, Libya 0.25 million b/d, Qatar 0.13 million b/d, b/d from the United Arab Emirates, 0.10 million b/d from Iran, and
and the other remaining countries 0.58 million b/d. 0.10 million b/d from other countries.
Chart 56: IEA OPEC Spare Capacity January 2003 - Nov. 2009 Chart 57: EIA OPEC Spare Capacity January 2003 - Nov. 2009 Chart 58: Saudi Arabia Spare Capacity Jan. 2003 - Nov. 2009
8 4.5 5.0
Venezuela UAE Venezuela UAE Saudi spare capacity (IEA)
Saudi Arabia Qatar Saudi Arabia Qatar
4 4.5
7 Nigeria Libya Nigeria Libya Saudi spare capacity (EIA)
Kuwait Iraq
Kuwait Iraq
Iran Ecuador 4.0
3.5 Iran Ecuador
6 Angola Algeria
Angola Algeria
3.5
3
5
3.0
2.5
4 2.5
2
2.0
3
1.5
1.5
2
1
1.0
1 0.5 0.5
0 0 0.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: International Energy Agency Source: Energy Information Administration Source: International Energy Agency & Energy Information Administration
Page 20
Middle East Oil Production ASPO Netherlands
Chart 59: Kuwait Liquids Production 1945 - 2008 Chart 60: Iran Liquids Production 1930 - 2008 Chart 61: Qatar Liquids Production 1945 - 2008
5.0 7.0 1.4

4.5 Liquids Liquids
6.0 1.2 Liquids
4.0
3.5 5.0 1.0
3.0 4.0 0.8
2.5
2.0 3.0 0.6
1.5 2.0 0.4
1.0
1.0 0.2
0.5
0.0 0.0 0.0
1945 1957 1969 1981 1993 2005 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 1945 1957 1969 1981 1993 2005
Source: ASPO Ireland & BP Statistical Review of World Energy Source: ASPO Ireland & BP Statistical Review of World Energy Source: ASPO Ireland & BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Chart 62: Kuwait Oil Production January 2004 - November 2009 Chart 63: Iran Oil Production January 2004 - November 2009 Chart 64: Qatar Oil Production January 2004 - November 2009
3.4 5.2 2.2

Crude Oil (IEA) Crude Oil (IEA) Crude Oil (IEA)
3.2 5.0 2.0
Crude Oil (EIA) Crude Oil (EIA) Crude Oil (EIA)
Liquids excluding biofuels (IEA) 4.8 Liquids excluding biofuels (IEA) 1.8 Liquids excluding biofuels (IEA)
3.0
4.6 1.6
2.8 4.4 1.4
2.6 4.2 1.2
4.0 1.0
2.4
3.8 0.8
2.2 3.6 0.6
2.0 3.4 0.4
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: International Energy Agency & Energy Information Administration Source: International Energy Agency & Energy Information Administration Source: International Energy Agency & Energy Information Administration
Page 21
ASPO Netherlands Middle East Oil Production
Chart 65: Saudi Arabia Liquids Production 1935 - 2008 Chart 66: UAE Liquids Production 1960 - 2008 Chart 67: Iraq Liquids Production 1930 - 2008
12.0 3.5 4.0

Liquids Liquids 3.5 Liquids
10.0 3.0
3.0
2.5
8.0
2.5
2.0
6.0 2.0
1.5
1.5
4.0
1.0
1.0
2.0 0.5 0.5
0.0 0.0 0.0
1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1930 1942 1954 1966 1978 1990 2002
Chart 68: Saudi Arabia Oil Production January 2004 - Nov. 2009 Chart 69: UAE Oil Production January 2004 - November 2009 Chart 70: Iraq Oil Production January 2004 - November 2009
14.0 4.0 3.4

Crude Oil (IEA) Crude Oil (IEA) Crude Oil (IEA)
3.8 3.2
13.0 Crude Oil (EIA) Crude Oil (EIA) Crude Oil (EIA)
3.6 3.0
Liquids excluding biofuels (IEA) Liquids excluding biofuels (IEA) Liquids excluding biofuels (IEA)
12.0 3.4 2.8
11.0 3.2 2.6
3.0 2.4
10.0 2.8 2.2
9.0 2.6 2.0
2.4 1.8
8.0
2.2 1.6
7.0 2.0 1.4
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Page 22
Middle East Oil Production ASPO Netherlands
Chart 71: Oman Liquids Production 1965 - 2008 Chart 72: Yemen Liquids Production 1985 - 2008 Chart 73: Syria Liquids Production 1930 - 2008
1.2 0.50 0.7

0.45 Liquids Liquids
Liquids 0.6
1.0
0.40
0.35 0.5
0.8
0.30 0.4
0.6 0.25
0.20 0.3
0.4
0.15 0.2
0.10
0.2 0.1
0.05
0.0 0.00 0.0
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Chart 74: Oman Oil Production January 2004 - November 2009 Chart 75: Yemen Oil Production January 2004 - November 2009 Chart 76: Syria Oil Production January 2004 - November 2009
1.00 0.60 0.70
Liquids (IEA) 0.55 Liquids (IEA) Liquids (IEA)
0.95 0.65
Crude Oil (EIA) 0.50 Crude Oil (EIA) Crude Oil (EIA)
0.90 0.60
0.45
0.85 0.55
0.40
0.80 0.50
0.35
0.75 0.45
0.30
0.70 0.25 0.40
0.65 0.20 0.35
0.60 0.15 0.30
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Page 23
ASPO Netherlands Europe Oil Production
Chart 77: Denmark Liquids Production 1970 - 2008 Chart 78: Norway Liquids Production 1970 - 2008 Chart 79: UK Liquids Production 1970 - 2008
0.45 4.0 3.5

0.40 Liquids 3.5 Liquids Liquids
3.0
0.35 3.0
2.5
0.30
2.5
0.25 2.0
2.0
0.20 1.5
1.5
0.15
1.0
0.10 1.0
0.05 0.5 0.5
0.00 0.0 0.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Chart 80: Denmark oil production January 2004 - Sept. 2009 Chart 81: Norway oil production January 2004 - November 2009 Chart 82: UK oil production January 2004 - November 2009
0.60 4.40 3.20

4.00 Liquids (IEA)
2.80
0.50
3.60 Crude Oil (EIA)

3.20 2.40
0.40 2.80 2.00
2.40
0.30 1.60
2.00
1.60 1.20
0.20
Liquids excluding biofuels (IEA) 1.20 0.80
0.80 Liquids (IEA)
Crude Oil (EIA) 0.40
0.40
0.00 0.00 0.00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Page 24
Africa Oil Production ASPO Netherlands
Chart 83: Algeria Liquids Production 1955 - 2008 Chart 84: Angola Liquids Production 1960 - 2008 Chart 85: Libya Liquids Production 1970 - 2008
2.5 2.0 4.0

Liquids 1.8 Liquids 3.5 Liquids
2.0 1.6
3.0
1.4
1.5 1.2 2.5
1.0 2.0
1.0 0.8 1.5
0.6
1.0
0.5 0.4
0.2 0.5
0.0 0.0 0.0
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Chart 86: Algeria Oil Production January 2004 - November 2009 Chart 87: Angola Oil Production January 2004 - November 2009 Chart 88: Libya Oil Production January 2004 - November 2009
3.4 3.0 2.4

3.2 Crude Oil (IEA) 2.8 Crude Oil (IEA) Crude Oil (IEA)
3.0 Crude Oil (EIA) Crude Oil (EIA) Crude Oil (EIA)
2.6
Liquids excluding biofuels (IEA) 2.2 Liquids excluding biofuels (IEA)

2.8 Liquids excluding biofuels (IEA)
2.4
2.6 2.2
2.4 2.0
2.0
2.2
1.8
2.0 1.8
1.8 1.6
1.6 1.4
1.2 1.6
1.4
1.2 1.0
1.0 0.8 1.4
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Page 25
ASPO Netherlands Africa Oil Production
Chart 89: Nigeria Liquids Production 1955 - 2008 Chart 90: Egypt Liquids Production 1940 - 2008 Chart 91: Gabon Liquids Production 1955 - 2008
3.0 1.0 0.40

Liquids 0.9 Liquids Liquids
0.35
2.5
0.8
0.30
0.7
2.0
0.6 0.25
1.5 0.5 0.20
0.4 0.15
1.0
0.3
0.10
0.2
0.5
0.1 0.05
0.0 0.0 0.00
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Chart 92: Nigeria Oil Production January 2004 - November 2009 Chart 93: Egypt Oil Production January 2004 - November 2009 Chart 94: Gabon Oil Production January 2004 - November 2009
3.4 0.90 0.36

Crude Oil (IEA) Liquids (IEA) 0.34 Liquids (IEA)
3.2 0.85
Crude Oil (EIA) 0.32 Crude Oil (EIA)
3.0 Crude Oil (EIA)

Liquids excluding biofuels (IEA) 0.80 0.30
2.8
0.75 0.28
2.6
0.26
2.4 0.70
0.24
2.2 0.65 0.22
2.0 0.20
0.60
1.8 0.18
1.6 0.55
0.16
1.4 0.50 0.14
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Page 26
Africa Oil Production ASPO Netherlands
Chart 95: Eq. Guinea Oil Production January 2004 - Sept. 2009 Chart 96: Sudan Liquids Production January 2002 - Sept. 2009 Chart 97: Vietnam Liquids Production 1985 - 2008
0.44 0.66 0.45

0.40 Liquids
0.42 Crude Oil (EIA) Crude Oil (EIA)
0.60
0.35
0.40
0.54 0.30
0.38 0.25
0.48
0.36 0.20
0.42 0.15
0.34
0.10
0.32 0.36
0.05
0.30 0.30 0.00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Chart 98: Other Africa Oil Production Jan. 2002 - Sept. 2009 Chart 99: Other Asia liquids Production Jan. 2002 - Sept. 2009 Chart 100: Vietnam Oil Production January 2004 - Sept. 2009
1.40 1.30 0.60

1.30 Liquids (IEA + EIA) 1.20 Liquids (IEA + EIA) Liquids excluding biofuels (IEA)
0.55
Crude Oil (EIA)

1.20 1.10 0.50
1.10 1.00 0.45
1.00 0.90 0.40
0.90 0.80 0.35
0.80 0.70 0.30
0.70 0.60 0.25
0.60 0.50 0.20
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Page 27
ASPO Netherlands Asia Oil Production
Chart 101: China Liquids Production 1950 - 2008 Chart 102: India Liquids Production 1960 - 2008 Chart 103: Malaysia Liquids Production 1955 - 2008
4.0 0.9 0.9

3.5 Liquids 0.8 Liquids 0.8 Liquids
3.0 0.7 0.7

0.6 0.6
2.5
0.5 0.5
2.0
0.4 0.4
1.5
0.3 0.3
1.0 0.2 0.2
0.5 0.1 0.1
0.0 0.0 0.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1970 1980 1990 2000 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Chart 104: China Oil Production January 2004 - November 2009 Chart 105: India Oil Production January 2004 - November 2009 Chart 106: Malaysia Oil Production January 2004 - Nov. 2009
4.40 1.05 1.20

Liquids (IEA) 1.00 Liquids (IEA) Liquids (IEA)
4.20 1.10
Crude Oil (EIA) Crude Oil (EIA)

0.90 1.00
4.00
0.85 0.90
3.80 0.80
0.75 0.80
3.60
0.70 0.70
0.65
3.40 0.60
0.60
3.20 0.55 0.50
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Page 28
Former USSR Oil Production ASPO Netherlands
Chart 107: Azerbaijan Liquids Production 1930 - 2008 Chart 108: Kazakhstan Liquids Production 1945 - 2008 Chart 109: Russia Liquids Production 1955 - 2008
1.0 1.8 16.0

0.9 Liquids 1.6 Liquids Liquids
14.0
0.8 1.4 12.0

0.7
1.2
0.6 10.0
1.0
0.5 8.0
0.8
0.4 6.0
0.6
0.3
0.4 4.0
0.2
0.1 0.2 2.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Chart 110: Azerbaijan Oil Production January 2004 - Sept. 2009 Chart 111: Kazakhstan Oil Production January 2004 - Sept. 2009 Chart 112: Russia Oil Production January 2004 - November 2009
1.60 2.00 11.50

1.40 Liquids excluding biofuels (IEA) Liquids excluding biofuels (IEA) Liquids (IEA)
1.80 11.00
Crude Oil (EIA) Crude Oil (EIA) Crude Oil (EIA)

1.20
10.50
1.60
1.00
10.00
0.80 1.40
9.50
0.60
1.20
9.00
0.40
1.00 8.50
0.20
0.00 0.80 8.00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Page 29
ASPO Netherlands North America Oil Production
Chart 113: US Liquids Production 1930 - 2008 Chart 114: Canada Liquids Production 1945 - 2008 Chart 115: Mexico Liquids Production 1930 - 2008
14.0 3.5 4.5

Liquids Liquids 4.0 Liquids
12.0 3.0
3.5
10.0 2.5
3.0
8.0 2.0 2.5
6.0 1.5 2.0
1.5
4.0 1.0
1.0
2.0 0.5 0.5
0.0 0.0 0.0
1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005
Chart 116: US Oil Production January 2004 - November 2009 Chart 117: Canada Oil Production January 2004 - Nov. 2009 Chart 118: Mexico Oil Production January 2004 - Nov. 2009
4.20 4.60
11.0 4.00 Liquids (IEA) 4.40 Liquids (IEA)
Liquids (IEA)
10.0 3.80 Crude Oil (EIA) 4.20 Crude Oil (EIA)
Crude Oil (EIA)

9.0 3.60 4.00
3.40 3.80
8.0
3.20 3.60
7.0 3.00 3.40
6.0 2.80 3.20
2.60 3.00
5.0
2.40 2.80
4.0 2.20 2.60
3.0 2.00 2.40
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Page 30
South America Oil Production ASPO Netherlands
Chart 119: Argentina Liquids Production 1930 - 2008 Chart 120: Brazil Liquids Production 1955 - 2008 Chart 121: Colombia Liquids Production 1930 - 2008
1.0 2.0 0.9

0.9 Liquids 1.8 Liquids 0.8 Liquids
0.8 1.6 0.7

0.7 1.4
0.6
0.6 1.2
0.5
0.5 1.0
0.4
0.4 0.8
0.3
0.3 0.6
0.2 0.4 0.2
0.1 0.2 0.1
0.0 0.0 0.0
1930 1942 1954 1966 1978 1990 2002 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Chart 122: Argentina Oil Production January 2004 - Nov. 2009 Chart 123: Brazil Oil Production January 2004 - November 2009 Chart 124: Colombia Oil Production January 2004 - Nov. 2009
1.00 3.00 0.80

0.95 Liquids (IEA) 2.80 Liquids (IEA) Liquids (IEA)
0.75
0.90 2.60 Crude Oil (EIA)

0.70
0.85
2.40
0.80 0.65
2.20
0.75 0.60
2.00
0.70 0.55
1.80
0.65
1.60 0.50
0.60
0.55 1.40 0.45
0.50 1.20 0.40
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Page 31
ASPO Netherlands South America Oil Production
Chart 125: Ecuador Liquids Production 1970 - 2008 Chart 126: Venezuela Liquids Production 1930 - 2008
0.6 5.0
Liquids 4.5 Liquids
0.5
4.0
3.5
0.4
3.0
0.3 2.5
2.0
0.2
1.5
1.0
0.1
0.5
0.0 0.0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Source: ASPO Ireland & BP Statistical Review of World Energy Source: ASPO Ireland & BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Chart 127: Ecuador Oil Production January 2004 - Nov. 2009 Chart 128: Venezuela Oil Production January 2004 - Nov. 2009 Chart 129 Other S. America oil production Jan. 2004 - Nov. 2009
0.66 4.0 0.70

0.64 Crude Oil (IEA) 3.8 Crude Oil (IEA)
Crude Oil (EIA) 0.65 Liquids (IEA + EIA)
0.62 Crude Oil (EIA) 3.6
Liquids excluding biofuels (IEA)

0.60 3.4 0.60
0.58 3.2
0.55
3.0
0.56
2.8 0.50
0.54
2.6
0.52 0.45
2.4
0.50 2.2 0.40
0.48 2.0
0.35
0.46 1.8
0.44 1.6 0.30
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Page 32
Oceania Oil Production ASPO Netherlands
Chart 130: Australia Liquids Production 1970 - 2008 Chart 131: Indonesia Liquids Production 1930 - 2008
1.0
0.9 Liquids 2.0 Liquids
0.8
0.7 1.5
0.6
0.5
1.0
0.4
0.3
0.2 0.5
0.1
0.0 0.0
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005
Source: ASPO Ireland & BP Statistical Review of World Energy Source: ASPO Ireland & BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Chart 132: Australia Oil Production January 2004 - Nov. 2009 Chart 133: Indonesia Oil Production January 2004 - Nov. 2009
0.80 1.30
0.75 Liquids (IEA) 1.25 Liquids (IEA)
0.70 1.20
0.65
1.15
0.60
1.10
0.55
1.05
0.50
1.00
0.45
0.40 0.95
0.35 0.90
0.30 0.85
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: International Energy Agency & Energy Information Administration Source: International Energy Agency & Energy Information Administration
Page 33

2009 December Oilwatch Monthly

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

2009 December Oilwatch Monthly

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Oilwatch Monthly - December 2009

16 December 2009 - (next update: 19 January 2010)

Rembrandt Koppelaar +31 (0)6 44082419

Trillion BTU per day

30 Liquids (EIA) 26 Crude Oil (EIA) Natural Gas Liquids (EIA)

52.0 26.6 15.6

38.0 20.0 11.6

16 1.7 Canada oil consumption (JODI)

France oil consumption Germany oil consumption Italy oil consumption

2.3 3.0 2.2

2.1 2.7 1.9

1.9 2.4 1.6

1.7 2.1 1.3

1.5 1.8 1.0

1.8 2.2 0.8

1.5 1.6 0.4

1.2 1.0 0.0

1.2 7.0 3.0

0.9 5.0 2.2

0.6 3.0 1.4

China oil consumption India oil consumption Taiwan oil consumption

10.0 3.4 1.4

9.5 3.2 1.3

4.0 1.2 0.4

1200 1600 425

1000 1400 350

800 1200 275

600 1000 200

650 250 250

525 150 175

600 800 300

250 450 100

4.0 3.0 3.6

0.0 0.0 0.8

Denmark oil exports Australia oil exports Japan oil imports

0.60 1.0 5.0

0.00 0.0 3.2

34.0 13.0 14.0

31.5 11.0 12.5

29.0 9.0 11.0

5.0 7.0 1.4

3.4 5.2 2.2

12.0 3.5 4.0

14.0 4.0 3.4

1.2 0.50 0.7

0.45 4.0 3.5

0.05 0.5 0.5

0.00 0.0 0.0

0.60 4.40 3.20

3.60 Crude Oil (EIA)

2.5 2.0 4.0

3.4 3.0 2.4

Liquids excluding biofuels (IEA) 2.2 Liquids excluding biofuels (IEA)

3.0 1.0 0.40

3.4 0.90 0.36

3.0 Crude Oil (EIA)

0.44 0.66 0.45

1.40 1.30 0.60

Crude Oil (EIA)

4.0 0.9 0.9

3.0 0.7 0.7

4.40 1.05 1.20