¡Bienvenidos!

Many Latin American governments have been

quick to respond to the threat of Covid-19

First School Residential Closing

reported closure Quarantine Borders
case
Argentina Mar 3 Mar 15 Mar 19 Mar 15
Bolivia Mar 10 Mar 12 Mar 22 Mar 22
Chile Mar 3 Mar 16 Mar 25 Mar 18
Colombia Mar 6 Mar 15 Mar 20 Mar 17
Costa Rica Mar 6 Mar 12 Mar 16 Mar 16
Ecuador Feb 29 Mar 15 Mar 15 Mar 16
El Salvador Mar 18 Mar 11 Mar 11 Mar 11
Peru Mar 6 Mar 15 Mar 15 Mar 16

Source: https://www.as-coa.org/articles/where-coronavirus-latin-america
2
With differing reactions from some leaders…

3
Actual effects of quarantines varying greatly
Decrease in visits to ‘retail and recreation’

0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
-70%
-80%
-90%
-100%

Source: Google Covid-19 Community Mobility Report;

March 31 vs. baseline average Jan. 3-Feb. 6 © IDC 4
Will the region be
ready for the coming
wave?

Source: https://www.as-coa.org/articles/where-coronavirus-latin-America;
Johns Hopkins University; Apr 3, 2020 5
 All countries in the region are forecasted to go
into immediate, but hopefully short recessions
Latin America GDP % Growth Forecasts, 2020-2021
6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%
Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Rest of Latin
-2.0% America*

-4.0%

-6.0%

-8.0%

2020 (Feb) 2020 (Mar) 2021 (Feb) 2021 (Mar)

Source: EIU, IDC; February and March, 2020

6
*Venezuela not included, 2020 forecast is -25%
 Latin America Scenarios for Coronavirus Impact
Optimistic scenario
• GDP will fall 1.8%
• Global supply chains will have a
quick recovery outside China
• Demand will back to normal in the
third quarter and the economies
that rely on exports won’t suffer a
large impact.
• Local fiscal policies are effective
and will minimize the loss in value
of local currencies.
• Quarantine in the region will help
to stop the spread of the virus
during Q2.
Probable scenario Pessimistic scenario
• GDP in the region to fall between -3.0% and -4.0% • Expected GDP growth will be
• Unemployment is a problem in the second half of the year, negative, greater than -4.0%
given the impact of COVID19 in small and medium business, • Temporary increase in poverty levels
as well as in big companies. from economies shutting down leads
• Poverty levels will increase in the short term by 18% and to longer-term poverty impact.
extreme poverty around 34% (CEPAL). • Manufacturing will fall 60% globally
• Manufacturing are recovering in China, but supply chains for with recovery by 2021. Price of IT
global exports remain negatively affected hardware components in the region
• Exports from Latin America will be much lower due to will increase.
decreased demand in USA and China • Local manufacturing severely
• COVID19 will spread fast in Latin America given the health impacted by global supply chain
systems and culture, especially in Mexico and Brazil where dynamics.
the governments have been late to understanding the • Economic strategies from regional
severity of the pandemic. governments will not be enough and
• Latin America currencies continue to lose value, especially foreign currencies like US dollar will
currencies with a strong correlation with the price of oil. become stronger, weakening local
• Investors will seek refuge in US dollars. currencies.
• Earlier social unrest in the region appears to be on stand-by, • Health system will be deficient
but will return in 2021 against the infected population and
quickly becomes overwhelmed.
Source: IDC, April 1, 2020
Transition to the new reality

Transition to
Shock Organization Realignment
‘new’ normal

Weeks 1-2 Weeks 3-4 Months 2-3 Optimistic: Q3

8
Between 10-20 points of growth will disappear in 2020,
representing more than $15 billion less
Latin America IT Spending Growth %
10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%
2019 2020 2021
-2%

-4%

-6%

-8%

-10%

Pre Covid Optimistic Probable Pessimistic

Source: IDC Blackbook Live Edition March 2020_ForecastPivot_2020V1

9
 2021 Should Once Again Show Positive Numbers
for Latin America
Latin America IT% Growth Forecasts, 2020-2021
20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Rest of Latin
America
-5%

-10%

2020 Pre-Covid 2020 (Mar) 2021 Pre-Covid 2021 (Mar)

Source: IDC Blackbook Live Edition February 2020_ForecastPivot_2020V1; IDC Blackbook Live Edition March
2020_ForecastPivot_2020V1 10
 China Example: The CoVID-19 Outbreak Brings 10
Major Potential ICT Opportunities
Technofication of Decentralization of Acceleration of Rise of contactless Acceleration of the
government city clusters and healthcare system digital businesses and China+1 global supply
central cities transformation services chain strategy

Digital platforms and big data New smart cities and parks Online healthcare services Online classroom and education Remote office and online
activities

5G industry applications Unmanned commerce and Fresh food e-commerce Supply chain management Manufacturing and service
services robots

11
The impact will not be evenly distributed across all industries
Impact of ICT by Industry and by Time in Latin America
Full-Year 2020 Latin America Impact
10%

5%
Media

Education
0%
Impact on IT Spending by Industry

Financial Services

-5% Telecommunications
(Y0Y Growth-2020)

-10%

-15% Retail/Wholesale
Manufacturing
-20%
Services
-25% Public Sector

-30%

-35% 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2

Recovery Period

12
Source: IDC, April 1 2020; Using ‘Probable’ Scenario
Opportunities from the Crisis
COVID-19 is changing our day-to-day processes and way of life and is leading to important changes in areas such as:
• Workplace (HO) and HR (work culture, training, employees adapting to constant change)
• Cultural and societal interaction (streaming and online services)
• The way business is conducted (omnichannel)
• Resilient distribution and supply chains

Negative impact in Positive impact in the Positive impact in the

the short term short-medium term medium term

• Consumer devices • Unified Communications • IoT

• Servers Software and Tools • AR/VR
• Storage • Virtualization and • AI
Collaboration Software
• On-premise IT services • Smart office & home
• Cloud services
• Security
• Networking
• Big data & Analytics
• Off-site IT Services
• Security © IDC 13
Consumer hardware will be the most impacted

Latin America Consumer Device Technology Growth Rates, 2020 (Constant US$)

14
Source: IDC Blackbook Live Edition March 2020_ForecastPivot_2020V1
While Software and Services will see the least
amount of impact in the enterprise space
Latin America Enterprise Technologies Growth Rates, 2020 (Constant US$)

15
Source: IDC Blackbook Live Edition March 2020_ForecastPivot_2020V1
Telecom Sector will likely see some upside from
the crisis
Latin America Telecommunications Spending Growth Rates, 2020 (Constant US$)

Source: IDC Blackbook Live Edition March 2020_ForecastPivot_2020V1 16

When the Whatsapp group jokes aren’t really jokes

17
Essential Guidance for Business Executives
If scenario planning was not a common practice at your organization, begin to
1 institutionalize it with formal processes. If-then forecasts should become
standard.

Digital transformation objectives might be more relevant than ever before,

but in many cases might need to realign the focus. Use this crisis as a turning
2 point in the conversation with senior management.

Working from home needs to be an organized process across Latin American

companies. Push for modern, cloud-based infrastructures and platforms that
3 enable remote work, management, security, and agility. Include plans to realign
jobs that can not be done from home.

Avoid hasty, short-term, drastic decisions that could impact your

4 competitiveness in the medium/long term. Use accurate and timely information
today to analyze what the impact of decisions 12 months from now.

© IDC 18
Essential Guidance for IT Suppliers
Mind the tech buyer’s context, practicing “sales distancing” to some degree, without
missing out on opportunities. Some buyers are more available than others
1 because of shutdowns, especially those that previously had frequent travel
throughout Latin America.

Many lines of business executives are suddenly thinking about technological

challenges that were previously out of their concern (HR process, how to pay
2 bills remotely, remote sales, etc). Communicate how your solutions solve these
problems.

Help your clients find more ways to trim costs by eliminating wasteful or
redundant processes. They’ll need to reassign spending to essential tasks,
3 products and customers and achieve fast ROI.

With face-to-face sales events globally and in Latin America reduced, integrate
digital marketing processes into the lead generation, sales education, and closing
4 stages.

© IDC 19
 ¿Cómo IDC puede ayudarte?
Recursos Gratuitos de IDC Latinoamérica
https://www.idc.com/latam/covid19

Nuestras soluciones:
IDC Latin America Covid-19 Flash – servicio quincenal IDC Latin America Eventos en línea

Perspectiva cuantitativa del lado de la oferta, análisis, insights del lado Los webinars, eventos virtuales y mesas redondas virtuales, te
de la demanda y sesiones de consulta con el analista. permitirán conectar con una amplia audiencia de influenciadores y
tomadores de decisión de compra de TIC, en múltiples geografías.

Conoce más → Conoce más →

IDC Latin America Campañas de Contenido Digital IDC Latin America Speakers

Los activos de IDC agregan valor a tus campañas digitales; éstos son Los líderes de opinión de IDC se encuentran entre los más respetados
diseñados para ser flexibles y adaptables a la evolución de la situación y persuasivos speakers de la industria TIC. Este recurso será un gran
del COVID-19 en la región. activo para tu próximo evento en línea.

Conoce más → Conoce más →

Para más información: acuriel@idc.com 20

21