Engineering Geology 55 (2000) 277–296

www.elsevier.nl/locate/enggeo

Discontinuity controlled probabilistic slope failure risk maps

of the Altindag (settlement) region in Turkey
C. Gokceoglu, H. Sonmez *, M. Ercanoglu
Hacettepe University, Department of Geological Engineering, 06532 Beytepe-Ankara, Turkey
Received 9 June 1998; accepted for publication 4 February 1999

Abstract

The evaluation of potential rock slope problems using stereographic projection techniques known as kinematic
analysis is one of the most important parts of a slope stability investigation to be carried out in jointed rock media.
In conventional stereoprojection techniques for the assessment of possible rock slope failures, the peak orientations
of joints together with the slope geometry and the friction angle of the weakness planes are used. Other possible
joint orientations which may be encountered in the rock media are ignored, although they belong to the group of
joint peak orientations. In this study, nearly vertical jointed andesites cropped out at the Altindag settlement region
in Ankara were studied in order to evaluate the relevance of this ignored discontinuity orientation data on slope
stability. As a result, probabilistic risk maps for planar, toppling and wedge failures were produced using the
kinematic rules and digital elevation model of the study area. The comparison of the distribution of the actual
failures in the area and the probabilistic risk maps prepared for the study area revealed that all of the identified
failures are found to be located in the higher risk zones on the probabilistic risk maps. © 2000 Elsevier Science
B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Altindag (Ankara) region; Andesite; Kinematic analysis; Probabilistic analysis; Risk maps

1. Introduction Miller, 1983; Morris and Stotter, 1983;

There are a number of methods available for
the analysis of slope stability. Conventional deter-
ministic methods such as limit-equilibrium meth-
ods of analyses have been supplemented by
probabilistic methods over the last two decades.
Various probabilistic studies of rock slopes and
mining spoil piles have been carried out
(McMahon, 1971, 1975; Piteau and Martin, 1977;
Baecher and Einstein, 1978; Marek and Savely,
1978; LaPointe, 1980; Priest and Brown, 1983;
* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: candan@jeo.hun.edu.tr (H. Sonmez)
Chowdhury, 1986, 1987; Carosso et al., 1987;
Hoerger and Young, 1987; Kulatilake, 1988;
Young and Hoerger, 1988; Leventhal et al., 1992;
Young, 1993).
The position of the joint set plays an important
role in the safety evaluation. When joints, faults,
and other weak zones form a continuous failure
path and are adversely oriented to a slope, they
may cause a failure. In the conventional kinematic
analysis technique for slopes, the peak orientations
of joints are used. If the discontinuity orientations
in the slope are homogenous and their concen-
tration on the stereonet are dense around the peak
orientations of the joints, the application of kine-

0013-7952/00/$ - see front matter © 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
PII: S0 0 1 3 -7 9 5 2 ( 9 9 ) 0 0 08 3 - 6
278 C. Gokceoglu et al. / Engineering Geology 55 (2000) 277–296

matic analysis is simple and the results of the IDRISI ( Eastman, 1992) from a digital elevation
analysis may be considered as reliable. However, model of the study area. The digital elevation
the use of the peak orientations of the joints in model of the study area includes 195 rows, 166
kinematic analysis may not give reliable results if columns and 32 370 pixel. The kinematic analyses
the nature of rock mass is complex, and the for each pixel which represents a slope in the study
distribution of the joint orientation data on the area were carried out automatically using the
stereonet are not dense. According to Einstein and computer program, , developed by Sonmez
Baecher (1983), uncertainty about geologic condi- and Gokceoglu (1998). Finally, the probabilistic
tions and geotechnical parameters is perhaps the risk maps for each slope failure mode (planar,
most distinctive characteristic of engineering geol- wedge and toppling) were produced using the
ogy compared to other engineering fields. output files produced by .
Additionally, the principal source of uncertainty
in rock slope design usually arises from the loca-
tions and the orientations of joints and other rock 2. Characteristics of the study area
defects in the rock masses behind the slope
(McMahon, 1971). Another source of uncertainty, The study area is located in the central part of
caused by possible omissions, cannot be formally Ankara (capital city of Turkey) bounded by the
described. Omissions refers to the failure by the
engineer to consider possible modes of failure or
factors that could affect performance ( Wu et al.,
1996). Generally, natural or man-made slope fail-
ures happen far more frequently than other
geotechnical failures such as tunnel or foundation
failures and thus, slope stability analyses tech-
niques have been investigated by a numerous
investigators.
The mapping of potential failure zones obtained
from the results of conventional and probabilistic
stability analysis is an important objective for
urban geology. Slope failure risk maps are of great
help to planners and engineers for choosing suit-
able locations to implement development schemes
in any area.
The aim of the present study is to examine the
possibility of discontinuity controlled slope failures
of jointed andesites cropped out at the Altindag
settlement region (Ankara) and to prepare proba-
bilistic failure risk maps of the study area automat-
ically. For the purpose of this study, an extensive
scan-line survey program was carried out on the
andesite exposures, and a total of 783 joint survey
data were collected by the scan-line technique in
accordance with the procedure suggested in ISRM
(1981). The obtained data were evaluated and
used in the kinematic analyses.
The digital elevation model of the study area
was prepared and the dip and dip-direction maps
were produced using the computer program Fig. 1. Location map of the study area.
 C. Gokceoglu et al. / Engineering Geology 55 (2000) 277–296
Fig. 2. A typical view from the andesites.
Fermanlilar district in the North, Tabakhane in
the West, Ankara Castle in the South and Altindag
street in the East ( Fig. 1). The study region is a
typical settlement area with a large number of
squatter’s houses which have been built uncon-
sciously in the old quarries and in their vicinity.
The population is very dense in the study area.
The observed rock type in the area is nearly-
vertical jointed andesites (Fig. 2) which form steep
topographic features. According to the discontinu-
ity persistence classification of ISRM (1981), the
persistencies of the joints were classified as high-
very high. Due to these features of the rock
exposure and topographic conditions, discontinu-
ity controlled slope failures sometimes cause the
loss of life and destroy homes.
The study area covers ca 4 km2. The topography
is generally steep and rough, and cut by the
279
Fig. 3. Simplified geological map of the study area (after
Kasapoglu, 1980).
Bentderesi valley. The elevation range varies
between 840 and 1003 m. The prominent hills in
the area are Timurlenktepe in the north (1003 m)
and Kaletepe in the south (986 m) (see Fig. 1).
The annual precipitation is 350 mm; the annual
temperature varies between −1°C (in January)
and 23.3°C (in August) with an average of 11.7°C
(SMO, 1997). Typical continental climate prevails
in the Ankara region.
The main rock type of the study area is andesite
( Fig. 3). The andesites are the product of Miocene
volcanism ( Erol, 1961; Erentöz, 1975), and contain
a nearly vertical joint system (see Fig. 2). The
distribution of the discontinuities on the stereonet
showed that the present joints could be grouped
in three peak orientation discontinuities; 1:74/220;
2:76/312; and 3:79/026 ( Fig. 4). According to pre-
vious studies ( Ulusay, 1975; Kasapoglu, 1980;
Ercanoglu, 1997), the texture of the andesites is
porphiric and the main mineral constituents are
quartz, feldspar, hornblende and biotites.
3. Statistical evaluation of the joint data
An extensive statistical analysis was carried out
on a total of 783 joint orientation data collected
280 C. Gokceoglu et al. / Engineering Geology 55 (2000) 277–296
Fig. 4. Distribution of discontinuity orientation data on the
stereonet and small and great axes for each peak orientations
of joints.
from the study area in accordance with the pro-
cedure suggested in ISRM (1981). When the orien-
tation data were evaluated using an equal angle
stereographic net, three joint sets were identified
(see Fig. 4). Statistical evaluation constitutes the
first step of the determination of the statistical
distribution of the joint orientations. The shape of
the frequency curves on the stereonet are nearly
elliptical, and two axes can be drawn for each
joint set (see Fig. 4). A total of six orientation
data values for the larger end small axes were
identified ( Table 1). The distances between the
centre of the axes and the intersection of frequency
curves (see Fig. 4) were used in the statistical
distribution analyses, and the results of the statisti-
cal analyses of the discontinuity orientations
Table 1
Orientations of the great and small axes at the peak orienta-
tion joints
Set 1 Set 2 Set3
Small axes 118/75 046/90 118/80
Great axes 358/20 127/15 206/14
revealed that the type of distributions was nearly
normal (Fig. 5). The goodness-of-fit of the distri-
butions were checked by means of a x2 test
( Table 2). The normal distribution obtained was
considered to be significant according to the results
of the x2 tests.
Consequently, the distributions were redrawn
as ideal normal distributions. In other words, the
joint data on the stereographic net were normalized
( Fig. 6) using the procedure suggested by Zanbak
(1977). When drawing the ideal normal distribu-
tions, no simulation technique such as Monte
Carlo simulation [which is the simplest form of
simulation; Dowd (1994)] was utilized. Monte
Carlo simulation technique is a histogram which
represents all the possible outcomes of a variable.
However, in this study, the distributions of the
joint orientation data were accepted as a normal
distribution. This hypothesis is the main difference
between the simulation techniques and the normal-
ization applied in the present study. The normal-
ized stereographic net was divided into a grid mesh
having a dimension of 1/10 of the radius of stereo-
graphic net to consider the possible orientations
of the joints. A total of 83 discontinuity orientation
values were obtained by taking into account the
nodal points of the grid (see Fig. 6 and Table 3).
If the mesh dimensions taken are <1/10 of the
radius of stereonet, the accuracy of the results will
be good and the number of the discontinuity
orientation data obtained from the nodal points
of the grid mesh will be high. However, more
discontinuity orientation data results in more
analyses and thus more time being used. Also, a
grid mesh 1/10 of the radius of the circular area
projection was also used in the previous studies
( Zanbak, 1977; Leung and Quek, 1995) for the
statistical evaluation of the discontinuity orienta-
tion data. A total of 83 pole orientations of the
discontinuity data were labelled as 1, 2,…, 83 and
a computer file named ‘dis.dat’ was created. This
file which includes the labels ‘no’, ‘dip’, ‘dip-
direction ’, and the frequency information of the
83 discontinuity orientations ( Fig. 7) and was for-
matted as  codes. This discontinuity informa-
tion in ‘dis.dat’ were prepared for use in the
kinematic analysis.
 C. Gokceoglu et al. / Engineering Geology 55 (2000) 277–296 281

Fig. 5. Frequency histograms for each joint set: (a) great circle for Set 1; (b) small circle for Set 1; (c) great circle for Set 2; (d ) small
circle for Set 2; (e) great circle for Set 3; and (f ) small circle for Set 3.
282 C. Gokceoglu et al. / Engineering Geology 55 (2000) 277–296

Table 2 The kinematic checks for rock slope failures

x2 test results of the theoretical normal curve for each set utilize the slope orientation as an input parameter.
Joint Set Circle of x2 Degree of s Level The slope orientation values for each pixel were
No. great/small freedom obtained using the dip and dip-direction maps.
 can only read  characters and so pre-
Set 1 G 17.5 8 0.026 pared image files of the dip and dip-direction maps
S 9.6 11 0.565
Set 2 G 10.2 9 0.339 were saved in  format in a data file named as
S 13.7 5 0.017 ‘ori.dat’. The file named ‘ori.dat’ included informa-
Set 3 G 13.9 10 0.178 tion on the number of rows and columns, and the
S 19.0 12 0.88 dip and dip-direction values (see Fig. 7).

5. Kinematic analyses and preparation of the risk

maps

The investigation of possible failures controlled

Fig. 6. Normalized contour diagram for the joint sets.
4. Preparation of the digital elevation model and
related maps
In the present study, the digital elevation model
was prepared from a 1/5000 scaled topographical
map of the area by further interpolation techniques
of the elevation values. The dip and dip-direction
of slope are two important parameters for kine-
matic analyses. Therefore, the dip map (Fig. 8)
and the dip-direction map (Fig. 9) were produced
based on the prepared digital elevation model of
the study area by the  ( Eastman, 1992)
computer package. The dip values of the study
area vary between 0 and 85°, while the average
slope angle is 51°.
by structural elements is the inevitable part of the
early stages for the purpose of slope design studies
in jointed rock medium. In this context, the kine-
matic check is the most useful technique and
widely used in the design of open pit mines and
highway cuts etc.
There are two projection techniques known as
equal area (Lambert or Schmidt) and equal angle
(Stereographic or Wulff ) used in the evaluation of
geological data. Both types of projections are used
for the analyses of structural data. The equal angle
stereographic projection offers certain advantages,
particularly when used for geometrical construc-
tion, and is preferred by many engineers (Hoek
and Bray, 1981). In the  program, the equal
angle projection was preferred, because each line
of the equal angle projection can easily be
expressed by a circle equation. The analytical
equation of the great circles on the equal angle
projection was proposed by Priest (1985) as fol-
lows:
180x
y2=90−x2 ,
tan(90−b)
where x is the distance between the centre of
projection and the centre of the great circle in
degrees and b is the angle of the great circle. The
equation proposed in Priest (1985) and the kine-
matic analysis rules defined by Goodman (1980)
and Hoek and Bray (1981) and also explained in
detail under the related topics for each type of
 C. Gokceoglu et al. / Engineering Geology 55 (2000) 277–296 283

Table 3
List of the 83 discontinuity orientation data values

No. Dip-direction Dip value Frequency No. Dip-direction Dip value Frequency

1 201 85 5.25 43 300 81 8.75

2 207 89 5.25 44 338 54 3.00
3 196 73 7.00 45 329 58 8.50
4 203 76 12.25 46 321 64 15.75
5 210 81 12.25 47 315 71 20.00
6 216 86 7.00 48 310 78 15.75
7 189 61 3.50 49 306 86 8.75
8 198 63 10.00 50 333 67 5.25
9 207 67 18.50 51 326 72 10.75
10 214 72 19.25 52 320 78 13.75
11 220 78 15.00 53 315 85 12.00
12 225 85 8.75 54 330 81 4.50
13 191 51 3.25 55 324 86 5.35
14 202 54 8.75 56 045 57 3.25
15 211 58 15.75 57 037 50 4.50
16 219 64 17.50 58 027 45 4.25
17 225 71 18.00 59 045 71 3.25
18 230 78 10.00 60 039 64 8.00
19 234 86 3.00 61 031 58 11.25
20 207 45 5.25 62 022 54 9.75
21 217 50 8.75 63 011 51 7.00
22 225 57 12.00 64 000 50 3.75
23 231 64 10.50 65 040 78 5.25
24 236 72 5.50 66 034 72 12.25
25 225 42 5.00 67 027 67 16.00
26 233 50 5.25 68 018 63 15.50
27 239 58 5.00 69 009 61 12.25
28 126 86 5.25 70 000 60 5.50
29 135 85 5.25 71 036 86 5.25
30 144 86 5.25 72 030 81 12.25
31 297 45 3.50 73 023 76 15.75
32 292 54 4.00 74 016 73 17.00
33 288 63 3.50 75 008 71 14.00
34 315 42 5.00 76 000 70 5.75
35 307 50 8.75 77 021 85 10.25
36 301 58 11.75 78 014 82 10.50
37 297 67 10.50 79 007 81 8.00
38 293 76 5.75 80 000 80 3.25
39 323 50 8.00 81 216 68 22.50
40 315 57 14.00 82 310 70 22.00
41 309 64 19.00 83 021 70 18.50
42 304 72 17.00

failure are used in the kinematic analysis program
developed by Sonmez and Gokceoglu (1998). The
input parameters of the kinematic analysis pro-
gram are the number of joints, the orientation of
the joints, the angle of friction and slope orienta-
tion. Possible failure types, the most critical failure
mode, critical slope angle and optional safe slope
orientations are the outputs of the program
( Fig. 10).
Although, there are numerous computer pro-
grams available for analyzing structural geological
data (Chiao, 1985; Zhang and Tong, 1988;
Diedrich and Hoek, 1989; Pilant, 1989), kinematic
analysis programs are limited and these are only
284 C. Gokceoglu et al. / Engineering Geology 55 (2000) 277–296

Fig. 7. Flow chart summarizing the mapping method and content of the input and output files.
C. Gokceoglu et al. / Engineering Geology 55 (2000) 277–296 285

Fig. 8. Dip map of the study area

Fig. 9. Dip-direction map of the study area.

286 C. Gokceoglu et al. / Engineering Geology 55 (2000) 277–296
Fig. 10. Flow-chart of the kinematic analyses program ().
in executive form ( Tharp, 1985; Leung and Kheok,
1987; Ocal and Ozgenoglu, 1995). In this study
112 874 190 analyses were performed using the
Fig. 11. Failure envelope based on the Barton failure criterion.
combination of 83 discontinuity orientations and
32 370 slope orientations. Therefore, a computer
program developed by Sonmez and Gokceoglu
(1998) was used in the present study. The computer
program was written in Q and can run on
any type of IBM PC (or compatible) equipped
with a graphics card and monitor. The kinematic
analysis program  is capable of searching all
discontinuity controlled slope failure modes for a
pixel on the dip and dip-direction maps. After all
the inputs are identified, the program carries out
all steps automatically. The output files of the
program were used directly to produce the poten-
tial discontinuity controlled slope instability risk
maps of the study area.
The slope failures identified in the study area
are in the form of discontinuity controlled failures
and occur along the discontinuities existing in
andesites exposures. For this reason, only kine-
matic analyses were carried out using the slope
orientation maps, the discontinuity orientations
and discontinuity friction angles.
Due to the difficulties of the sample preparation
of the discontinuity surfaces, the friction angle
value of the discontinuity surfaces was determined
using the Barton criterion (Barton, 1973), and the
friction angle for the discontinuities obtained was
30° ( Fig. 11).
The study area covering ca 4 km2 was divided
into 32 370 pixels (166×195) and each pixel repre-
sents a slope orientation in the study area. When
potential rock slope problems are evaluated using
stereographic projection techniques, the following
 C. Gokceoglu et al. / Engineering Geology 55 (2000) 277–296 287

parameters are required (Herget, 1977; Hoek and

Bray, 1981; Norrish and Wyllie, 1996):
$ friction angle of discontinuity(ies);
$ slope orientation (dip and dip-direction); and
$ orientation of the discontinuity(ies).
The fully automatic kinematic analysis program
 takes the values of the dip and dip-direction
of each pixel and the orientation of the discontinu-
ities with their frequencies from the computer file
‘ori.dat’ and ‘dis.dat’, respectively, to carry out
kinematic analysis.

5.1. Kinematic analyses and the preparation of the

probabilistic risk map for planar failure

According to Herget (1977), Hoek and Bray

(1981) and Norrish and Wyllie (1996) the
following geometrical conditions must be satisfied
for planar failure on a single plane to occur
(Fig. 12):
$ the plane on which sliding occurs must strike
parallel or nearly parallel (within ca ±20°) to
the slope face;
$ the dip of the failure plane must be smaller than
the dip of the slope face;
$ the dip of the failure plane must be greater than
the friction angle of the discontinuity plane; and
$ release surfaces which provide negligible resis-
tance to sliding must be present in the rock
mass to define the lateral boundaries of the slide.
In the kinematic analyses which were performed
in accordance with the conditions for planar failure
shown in Fig. 12 for the preparation of the proba-
bilistic planar failure risk map, each pixel was
analysed using 83 discontinuity orientations sepa-
rately and a total of 2 686 710 kinematic analyses
were carried out by .
If a planar failure is probable along a disconti-
nuity for any analysed pixel which represents a
slope, the frequency of the discontinuity is stored
in the computer file ‘outp.dat’. As mentioned
above for the planar failure conditions (see
Fig. 12), the dip-direction of the discontinuity
must be within 20° of the dip-direction of the
slope. These conditions may be satisfied by two or
more of the 83 discontinuity orientation data Fig. 12. Kinematic and geometric conditions for planar failure
values (see Table 3) obtained from the nodal point (modified after Norrish and Wyllie, 1996).
of the grid mesh on the stereonet. In this case, the
288 C. Gokceoglu et al. / Engineering Geology 55 (2000) 277–296

Fig. 13. Probability risk map for planar failure.

highest frequency value of these discontinuities is orientation discontinuities and the probabilistic
stored in the ‘outp.dat’ file, because the highest risk map. In these analyses, if any analysed pixel
frequency value includes the other frequencies for that represents an instability was ‘one’, otherwise
the analyzed pixel. When there is no probable ‘zero’ values were stored in the computer file
planar failure for the analyzed pixel, the zero value ‘outpm.dat’, and the risk map was also prepared
is stored in the ‘outp.dat’ file. by  ( Fig. 15). When comparing Figs. 13 and
After the analysis of all the pixels for planar
failure was completed, the probabilistic planar
failure risk map for the study area was prepared
by the computer package  using the ‘outp.dat’
file ( Fig. 13).
According the probabilistic risk map for planar
failure, the highest planar failure probability of
the study area is 22.5%, and 2.8% of the study
area shows only the highest probability for planar
failure (Fig. 14). However, 44.7% of the study
area has a planar failure risk probability varying
between 1.5 and 22.5%.
The kinematic analyses for each pixel represent-
ing the dip and dip-direction of slope were repeated
using only three peak orientation discontinuities
in order to find out the differences between risk
map which was prepared using only three peak Fig. 14. Frequency histogram for the planar failure probability.
 C. Gokceoglu et al. / Engineering Geology 55 (2000) 277–296
Fig. 15. Planar failure risk map prepared using the three peak orientation discontinuities.
15 higher probabilities (ca >19.5%) on the proba-
bilistic risk map can be also observed on the map
prepared using three peak orientation discontinuit-
ies. Kinematic analysis is a kind of risk analyses
in engineering practice. However, it is very clear
that there may not be a failure although it is
possible according to the kinematic analyses
results. For example, point A on Fig. 15 has a
planar failure risk but it cannot be concluded that
planar failure occurs definitely unless limit equilib-
rium analysis is carried out. In addition, point B
on Fig. 15 has no planar failure risk, but point
B has a planar failure risk probability of 15% (see
Fig. 13). This difference arises from the possible
orientation changes in the peak orientation discon-
tinuities. In addition, 6.8% of the study area has
planar failure risk, if three peak orientation discon-
tinuities are considered, but this percentage
increase to 44.7%, if all the possible changes in
peak orientation discontinuities are considered.
Therefore, a probabilistic risk map using all 83
discontinuity orientations is more realistic and may
be useful and easily evaluated by planners.
289
5.2. Kinematic analyses and preparation of the
probabilistic risk map for toppling failure
The geometric conditions of toppling failure
( Fig. 16) described by Goodman and Bray (1976)
and Goodman (1980) are as follows:
$ the dip of the weakness plane must be into the
slope face. The dip-direction of the weakness
plane must be between 150 and 210° to the dip-
direction of the slope face;
$ as explained by Goodman (1980), in order for
interlayer slip to occur, the normal to the top-
pling plane must have a plunge less than the
inclination of the slope face less the friction
angle of the weakness plane (see Fig. 16).
With this in mind (see Fig. 16), a total of
2 686 710 kinematic analyses were performed by
, and the probabilistic toppling failure risk
map and risk map including three peak orientation
discontinuities were also obtained using the same
logic with planar failure. The maps for the toppling
failure of the study area are shown in Figs. 17 and
18. Although 28.7% of the study area does not
290 C. Gokceoglu et al. / Engineering Geology 55 (2000) 277–296
Fig. 16. Kinematic and geometric conditions for toppling failure
(modified after Norrish and Wyllie, 1996).
show any toppling failure risk, 18.6% of the area
has a toppling failure probability of 4.5% ( Fig. 19).
Actually, toppling failures frequently occur in the
western part of the study area and the map
obtained supports this observation.
5.3. Kinematic analyses and the preparation of the
probabilistic risk map for wedge type failure
The geometrical conditions of wedge failure
which are shown in Fig. 20, are as follows (Hoek
and Bray, 1981; Norrish and Wyllie, 1996):
$ the trend of the line intersection should approxi-
mate the dip-direction of the slope;
$ the plunge of the line intersection must be less
than the dip of the slope face; and
$ the plunge of the line intersection must be
greater than the angle of friction of the disconti-
nuity surfaces.
As mentioned above, the occurrence of the
wedge block in a slope is only possible if the slope
includes two different oriented discontinuities.
Therefore, all combinations of the 83 discontinuity
orientations are used in the kinematic analyses of
32 370 pixel and a total of 107 500 770 analyses
were performed. The obtained results were used
and probabilistic risk and risk maps (prepared
using only three peak orientation discontinuities
showing wedge failure probabilities of the study
area) were produced automatically (Figs. 21 and
22). The highest wedge failure probability of the
study area is 4.95% (see Fig. 21). This value is less
than the probability of planar and toppling fail-
ures. The development of wedge failure depends
on the intersection of two discontinuities, while
the other failure types are controlled by a single
discontinuity. Although, the probability of the
occurrence of a wedge failure in any area is low,
wedge failures occasionally do develop in the study
area ( Fig. 23). When the distribution of the actual
wedge failures in the area and the probabilistic
risk map for the study area were compared, all of
the identified wedge failures were found to be
located in the zones having 4.3% or more failure
probability. For this reason, the probabilistic risk
map including 83 discontinuity orientations is
more realistic. In other words, the risk map pre-
pared using only three peak joint orientations does
 C. Gokceoglu et al. / Engineering Geology 55 (2000) 277–296 291

Fig. 17. Probability risk map for toppling failure.

Fig. 18. Toppling failure risk map prepared using three peak orientation discontinuities.
292 C. Gokceoglu et al. / Engineering Geology 55 (2000) 277–296

Fig. 19. Frequency histogram for toppling failure probability.

not show all actual wedge failures in the area (see

Figs. 21 and 22). Since conventional kinematic
analysis methods consider only peak joint orienta-
tions; 26.3% of the study area has no wedge type
failure risk, but 73.7% of the study area has risk
probability varying between 1.32 and 4.95%
(Fig. 24).

6. Results and conclusions

The following results and conclusions can be

drawn from the present study.
$ Since the area is formed by jointed andesites
and its topography is very steep, the study area
is suitable for a probabilistic slope failure
investigation;
$ Probabilistic risk maps prepared using 83 dis-
continuity orientations are more realistic than
maps prepared using only three peak orientation
discontinuities, because, all the actual failures
developed in the study area are located on the
risk zones of the probabilistic risk maps. When
three peak orientation discontinuities are used
for the preparation of risk maps, 25% of the
study area shows toppling failure risk. If 83
discontinuity orientation data values are used
for the same purpose, 71% of the study area
shows toppling failure risk. However, this risk Fig. 20. Kinematic and geometric conditions for wedge failure
value is divided into different risk weights. (modified after Norrish and Wyllie (1996).
 C. Gokceoglu et al. / Engineering Geology 55 (2000) 277–296 293

Fig.21. Probability risk map for wedge failure.

Fig. 22. Wedge failure risk map prepared using three peak orientation discontinuities.
294 C. Gokceoglu et al. / Engineering Geology 55 (2000) 277–296

Fig. 23. Actual wedge failure view from the study area.

Similarly, if three peak orientation joints were
used, 20 and 9% of the study area show wedge
and planar failures risk, respectively, and these
values go up to 73 and 45% of the study area
for wedge and planar failures with different risk
weights, respectively.
$ In fact, a discontinuity set cannot be represented
$ The procedure described in the paper is very
$ In general, the most important conclusion which
Fig. 24. Frequency histogram for wedge failure probability.
with a peak orientation discontinuity because
of the density of the other discontinuities scat-
tered around the peak orientation discontinuit-
ies. Therefore, each discontinuity forming a set
can play an important role in slope failure. In
conclusion, each possible discontinuity orienta-
tion must be considered in a kinematic analysis
research program. This phenomenon is very
important for the selection and planning of
settlement regions, because, failure can cause
important hazards and loss of life.
simple if a computer is used. Kinematic analysis
does not take into account discontinuity persist-
encies. This is one of the drawbacks of kinematic
analysis. When using kinematic analysis for the
evaluation of rock slope stability, the persis-
tency of discontinuities must be considered in
order to produce a realistic risk map.
could be drawn from the present study is that
a localized probabilistic approach for rock
slopes can be carried out at the early stages of
engineering design.
 C. Gokceoglu et al. / Engineering Geology 55 (2000) 277–296
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