[Asia’s Next Page] Tokyo’s Quad Move for Closer Ties, Strengthened Security in the Indo Pacific Jagannath Panda o:tobor 17,2020 8:26 am ‘Click here to read this article in Japanese.) ‘© Asie Non Page, Ausual, cian (Chinese terrors expansion, Constitutions! ppl chain, taiwan, Tokyo Quad, Ry Be Sy Miltarization in Tokyo’s security outlook has been one of the most contested debates across Japan for last decade, Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ideas- reforming the postwar constitution, revising Article 9, having a stronger, active and responsive self-defense force for Son UNTY EGONOMYATEGH” GULTUREY spORIS~ SPEGALREPORTS~ ploy EAU IY BY A ‘OUR PARTNERS CU VS (SEV WHALING wat ‘ODAY ‘SPONSORED LINKSJapan, and a specific coalition in Indo-Pacific within the framework of the ‘Quad'- are key references to this effect Despite some unfulfilled goals before his untimely resignation from office this year, Abe resolutely succeeded in championing the Quad, his most cherished project in the Indo-Pacific since 2007. His accomplishment in revitalizing the Quad process, re-initialed as Quad 2.0, and promoting its expansion to a grander, global level beyond its Indo-Pacific focus by accepting the ‘Quad Plus’ mechanism led by the United States, stands unparalleled, Will his successor Yoshihide Suga ensure such progress to actualize the ‘Quad Plus’ process that Abe initiated over the past year? From ef 0 ight, Indlan Master of Extemel Allars Sueratmsnyam Jesshonka, Jopanese Foreign “MnistorToshimtsu Motag, Japanese Primo Ministor Yoshihide Suge, Austatan Foreign Minster Marsa Payne and US. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo pose fora picture before a four Indo-Pacie nations foraign miistors moating a the prime mister’ offce in Tokyo Tuas, Oct. 6, 2020. (Nicolas aventPoo! Photo via AP) New PM Hosts ‘Quad’ as First International Conference The Tokyo Quad meeting arrived when Suga was barely into his first month as prime minister of Japan, indicating his new but budding leadership stature. The first few telaphonic calls between ‘Suga and world leaders have followed a strenuous theme of boosting the Quad 2.0 narrative and promoting Japan's ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ (FOIP) vision. For instance, in the first leledhonic interaction between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and. Yoshihide Suga on September 25, Suga emphasized his plans to actively push forward ‘multilateral efforts like Quad 2.0 with the U.S., Australia and India, to create a ‘free and open’ Indo-Pacific. n this regard, the much-awaited second ministerial Quad meeting between the U.S... ‘Australia, India and Japan on October 6, 2020 was poised to be a major forum of dialogue amidst China's rising adventurism and the COVID-19 pandemic. ‘Why was this meeting crucial for Japan and what did it reveal about Japan’s changing security outlook? Mo8 vuong QuéeDangNE Can the quad ‘Fake On the ‘Amid the indemic, China's ‘Arms Race’ Theeater Unsavory choi inwro. strange Korea Map shows 2008 ‘asker EDITORIAL | >! Suga's First Tr ITOR'S PIC)HE BSE © 15:00 Brees RASS LL 7M ey =o Policy and Synergy The recently-concluded Quad meeting in Tokyo indicates that Suga does hold the same interest in promoting the vision that his predecessor Shinzo Abe held. Yet, advancing such a vision requires Japan to pursue a long-drawn nationalist foreign policy, as well as a domestic consensus that Abe built despite inviting stronger opposition in the country The most telling sign of Suga’s deft diplomacy at work, and of his resolve to show a firm stand against China, is the change in the venue of the Quad 2020 meeting. Although the dialogue was initially set to be hosted by New Delhi, the shift of venue to Tokyo after Suga’s appointment is a clear indication of the new leaders bold stance amidst a changing geopolitical order. The move was, of course, aided by India's dilemma over holding a meeting that China has dubbed exclusively ‘anti-China' and a ‘mini NATO' exercise. Beijing's displeasure had been conveyed, even as both neighboring countries have been amidst an almost four-month long military stand-off at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) along their shared border, with hardly any signs of tensions calming, Nevertheless, the fact thal the meeting was hosted in-person in Tokyo — at atime when the pandemic has necessitated virtual dialogues —demonstrates the weight itis accorded in Suga’s, security outlook for the country, Held within the first month of Suga’s leadership, the Quad meeting Is a clear assertion of Japan's priorties, its commitment to Abe's FOIP legacy and ‘Suga's own efforts to forge an international political personalistic presence. While Japan's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Toshimitsu Motegi, ran the just-concluded Quad ministerial dialogue, Suga held meetings on the margins of the conference with Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Australia's Foreign Minister Marise Payne, individually. Suga’s personal interactions are indicative of his intention to follow ‘Abe's own diplomatic tactics by building personal camaraderie and reassuring Japanese allies of a continuation in policy and synergizing strategies moving ahead. As a Custodian of Rules-based Order ‘Abe's focus was not limited to the Quad, but incorporated a larger (and thorough) strategy of ‘economic mulilateralism, and a deep-seated commitment to creating a free, open and equal trading environment for the region. This strategy translated into a number of regional initiatives including the Expanded Partnership for Quality Infrastructure (EPA), Tokyo-led Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and even the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). 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With an increasingly revisionist China being an acute concer for Japan (and indeed, all the other Quad members), the grouping’s foremost aim will be to devise a way of confronting Belling over its adventuristic moves and, in the long term, create a united coalition of “like-minded” democracies against Bejing, ‘At the same time, Japan under Suga will also seek to promote a parallel focus on emerging as a custodial guardian of the rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific and broader Asia. In this sense, ‘Suga is likely to work on advancing the Quad narrative into a Quad Plus platform (with South Korea, Vietnam, New Zealand, Brazil and Israel being addendums). An expanded framework of this nature will be crucial for deepening Tokyo's security outlook, whille at the same time paving the way for deeper integration of Japan's co-founded initiatives, like Blue Dot Network (BON) and Chain Resilionce Initiative (SCRI). Continued ‘Collective Self-Defense’ Dream The recent Quad meeting takes on new significance considering the exceedingly crucial and the politically charged time that i takes place. India-China ties are rapidly deteriorating with a standstil in bilateral dialogue mechanisms. The U.S. presidential election is around the comer, and in the event of a change in the White House, the extent to which Washington will push for a decoupling strategy remains to be seen. ‘Australia's ties with China aro ar low." with bath countries essentially entering into a rade and diplomatic spat after Canberra supported U.S, calls for an independent investigation Into the origins of COVID-19, which first emerged in China, Tokyo, too, has seen a quickly dwindling relationship with China over a re-emergence of tensions in the East China Sea and Tokyo's criticism of the new Hong Kong security legislation. Beijing's aggressive behavior with Taiwan. China’s 'wolf-warrior’ diplomacy has further weakened the authoritarian state's global image and compounded its already strained relations with key regional and global powers. Here, Quad 2.0 is a vital platform for coming together over shared an!-China sentiments, even if not explicitly exprassed by countries lke India and Japan Suga’s Cabinet Choices Reinforce Priorities The Tokyo ministerial meeting allowed Suga to show early-on how seriously he plans on taking questions of securty, peace and stabilty of the Indo-Pacific vis-a-vis China's belligerence, This impression is further strengthened with Japan's new Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi—Abe’s younger brother—seeking an alltime high defense budget for the seventh consecutive year. The Japanese Defense Ministry's proposal of over ¥5 4 tilion for fiscal year 2021 demonstrates ‘Suga's resolve to persist with Japan's militarization efforts domestically and regionally. Kishi has sirong Taiwan ties and has previously suggested arming Japan with nuclear weapons in light ofthe evolving security environment. His statement that China's “rapid military build-up" is a major concern, coming after his appointment in Suga's cabinet, reiterates the importance of mechanisms like Quad to Suga’s cabinet Much like Abe, Suga realizes the significance of Japan's changing security environment and national interest challenges, and is prepared to bulld modernized warfare tools to protect its borders. ‘Abe's aspirations of reinvigorating Japan's national security and defense calculus by reforming its never-amended post-war constitution is a legacy unfinished. The Quad 2.0 is a part of this legacy, encompassing Japan's move towards ‘proactive pacifism’ as highlighted in Abe's 2013 “Japan is Back’ speech ‘Abe's vision has found a place in Suga’s outlook as well, with the new prime minister continuing ‘Abe's emphasis on making Japan a ‘rules promoter, a commons’ guardian, and an effective aly Quad 2.0 allows for the realization of Abe's “collective self-defense” dream, vital amidst changing security structures driven by China's mllitary-maritime overtures. Domestic Challenges Amid Vote-bank Pol ics Nonetheless, Suga faces considerable domestic challenges, especially considering he may be Prime Minister only until general elections in 2021 Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LOP), amidst a falling economy, pandemic induced health crises and a rise in nationalist outlooks, is keen on securing a populist vote bank to ensure continued power, With Suga having been at the forefront of demands to diversify supply chains, reduce China dependency and focus on economic nationalism, ‘Suganomics’ is set to follow in the broad footsteps of ‘Abenomics’. The SCRI and Japan's manufacturing exodus from China are moves towards sustaining economic multilateralism with nuanced inclusions of nationalist incentives. The Quad meeting thus witnessed fine-balancing by Jagan over securly issues due fo entwined economic interests with China—Suga's first major diplomatic test will challenge his foreign policy skills apropos the Indo-Pacific, whore mediation and strategie tact have become vital fo ensuring peace. In parallel, Suga will need to reassure his own government, and LP, of not going oo far in confronting China, as LDP Secretary General Toshihiro Nikai has Ghina-frendly dealings. Concurrently, Suga will need to balance demands for a stronger anti-China stance by LDP's China hawks, which have re-emerged amid recent Chinese adventurism, and even extended to calls for cancelling the currently postponed state visit by the Chinese President Xi Jinping, China had already criticized the Tokyo Quad meeting, calling the grouping an “exclusive clique” that is “targeting a third party or harming third party’ interests". With the current geopolitical climate full of strife and an evolving post-COVID order in the making, the time is ripe for Quad to ‘emerge as an activo political coalition, leaving behind its abstract ideas. Although India, with its restrained foreign policy unaccepting of alliances, was attributed as the weakest link of the Quad 2.0, New Delhi's post-Galwan foreign policy has shown active overtures towards pointed alignment and deeper engagement with conjectural alliances like the Quad. TheQuad 2.0 thus has an opening to emerge as a driving structure of Indo-Pacific security and politics, rather than being limited to ideas and aspirations. Japan, with @ new leadership, has taken advantage of this opportunity as host to not only fulfil the legacy of Abe’s Quad ambitions, but also to build stronger bilateral ties with its Quad partners. Now it has an opportunity to assuredly shape its Quad chapter. Author: Dr, Jagannath Panda Dr. Jagannath Panda is a Research Fellow and Centre Coordinator for East Asia at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. He is the Series Editor for ‘Routledge Studies on Think Asia’. Find him on Twittor @jppjagannatht RECOMMEND Nhung Nguoi Chau Au G NuGe An Bb Quéc An Nam Va Nguoi Dan An [Photos] Couple Confused When Nam Bia Mim Photo Goos Viral, Til They See The 1% 1% Comments ‘Japan Braces for What Could Be Comfort Women Statues Shame, Not_Kim Jong Un: I's Time to Chango — Strongest Typhoon In 51 Years Help, Koreans. 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He Is also the author of India-China Relations: Poltics of Resources, Identity and ‘Authority ina Mukipolar World (Routledge, 2017) and China's Path to Power: Paty Miltary and the Poltics of State Transition (Pentagon Securty Intemational, 2010), He can be reached on Twitter @ippjagannatht. ¥ Twitteracuous ost [Hidden Wonders of Japan] The First ‘Totoro’ is a 1000 Year Old ‘Tree in Yamagata Prefecture RELATED POSTS: A ogeoomn Panda Lave youre Japan's longest serving Pine Mister ‘Shinzo Abe etched a global leadership rol for Tokyo by toking up the mane [& Can the Quad D China's Predatory, Ways Should No Longer Go Unchallenged aun extposr ‘Kimetsu no Yaiba Movie: Mugen Ressha’ Premieres in Japan Among Fan Craze ‘Suga, Trump Hold First Talks, Agree to Strengthen ark nnn Lene U.S, Presisent Donald Trump in caling LEAVE AREPLY You must be logged into posta comment # FACEBOOK COMMENTS.© 2020 All rights reserved.