UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL “DANIEL ALCIDES CARRIÓN”

FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA
ESCUELA DE FORMACIÓN PROFESIONAL DE SISTEMAS Y COMPUTACIÓN

Resolución de problema del libro Quantitative Analysis

For Management:
Ejercicio numero 3.39

DOCENTE:
Ing. CÓNDOR BEDOYA, Raúl Delfín

INTEGRANTE:

 CHAGUA RAMON, Anderson Aldair

2020
PASCO - PERÚ
Solucionario:
Peter Martin is going to help his brother who wants to open a food store. Peter initially
believes that there is a 50–50 chance that his brother’s food store would be a success.
Peter is considering doing a market research study. Based on historical data, there is a
0.8 probability that the marketing research will be favorable given a successful food
store. Moreover, there is a 0.7 probability that the marketing research will be
unfavorable given an unsuccessful food store.
(a) If the marketing research is favorable, what is Peter’s revised probability of a
successful food store for his brother?
(b) If the marketing research is unfavorable, what is Peter’s revised probability of a
successful food store for his brother?
(c) If the initial probability of a successful food store is 0.60 (instead of 0.50), find the
probabilities in parts a and b.