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Alzheimer’s & Dementia 3 (2007) 341–347

General risk factors for dementia: A systematic evidence review


Christopher Pattersona,*, John Feightnerb, Angeles Garciac, Chris MacKnightd
a
Division of Geriatric Medicine, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
b
Department of Family Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada
c
Department of Medicine (Geriatrics), Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada
d
Division of Geriatric Medicine, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Abstract This review identifies and quantifies general (ie, nongenetic) risk factors for all-cause dementia,
Alzheimer’s disease, and vascular dementia specifically.
© 2007 The Alzheimer’s Association. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Dementia; Alzheimer’s disease; Vascular dementia; Risk factors

1. Background reason, the present systematic review focuses solely on


longitudinal cohort studies.
Since the Canadian Consensus Conference on Demen-
We posed the question “What modifiable risk factors are
tia was convened in 1999, many advances have been
associated with dementia, Alzheimer’s disease, or vascular
made in the understanding of dementing disorders. One
dementia?” A comprehensive electronic literature search
area that was considered worthy of further investigation
was performed on Medline and EMBASE from 1966 to
was that of risk factors for dementia, because knowledge
December 2005. The search string is listed in the Appendix.
of these risk factors has direct relevance to the primary
This search identified 3,424 articles. It was possible to reject
prevention of these disorders. The topic of preventing
1,705 of these as obviously irrelevant. The remaining 1,719
dementia was previously addressed at the Canadian Con-
references with their abstracts were reviewed by a single
sensus Conference on Dementia [1], and an update on
primary prevention appears as a companion piece to the reader (C.P.), who identified possibly relevant articles and
present article [2]. set aside the remainder. These latter references and abstracts
were then reviewed by three other readers (J.F., A.G., C.M.)
to ensure that no possibly relevant articles had been dis-
2. Methods carded. The following criteria were used for relevance: (1)
longitudinal cohort studies; (2) a population broadly repre-
The identification and relative importance of risk factors
sentative of Canadian demographics; (3) dementia, Alzhei-
are best addressed through longitudinal cohort studies. Al-
mer’s disease, or vascular dementia as outcome; and (4)
though case-control studies can be used to explore risk
general risk factors identified (eg, hypertension, educational
factors for disease, significant differences have been ob-
status, occupation, chemical exposure.) Articles addressing
served when conclusions of case-controlled studies are
genetic risk factors were excluded.
compared with longitudinal studies. An example of differ-
After assembling all possibly relevant publications, the
ent conclusions is found with tobacco, where case-control
full articles were obtained, and each was assessed indepen-
studies have suggested that tobacco is associated with a
dently by two reviewers for quality. Additional articles from
lower risk of dementia, whereas numerous longitudinal
personal files and those identified by scrutiny of bibliogra-
studies have shown that the risk is increased [3]. For this
phies of retrieved articles were added to the pool for quality
assessment. After consulting several key references on ap-
praisal of risk factor literature, the following criteria were
*Corresponding author. Tel.: (905) 521-7931; Fax: (905) 521-7905. chosen to determine whether an article was good, fair, poor,
E-mail address: pattec@hhsc.ca or ineligible.
1552-5260/07/$ – see front matter © 2007 The Alzheimer’s Association. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2007.07.001
342 C. Patterson et al. / Alzheimer’s & Dementia 3 (2007) 341–347

2.1. Population characteristics (DBP) levels have been implicated in increased risks of
subsequent dementia. For example, from the Kungsholmen
Inclusion criteria were defined, including ages, locations, project, SBP in excess of 180 mm Hg is associated with an
dates; exclusion of dementia at inception; and population increased RR of all-cause dementia (ACD) of 1.6 and for
broadly representative of Canadian demographics. Alzheimer’s disease (AD) of 1.5 after 6 years [4]. However,
2.2. Follow-up in the same study population, a SBP of less than 140 mm Hg
was also associated with increased risk of ACD (RR, 1.9)
All participants were accounted for at end of follow-up, and AD (RR, 2.2) [5]. From the combined results of the
without excessive “preventable” losses. No differences in Rotterdam and Gothenberg H-70 studies in individuals who
follow-up were found between those developing dementia are taking antihypertensive agents, each increase of 10
and those with no dementia. mm Hg in SBP appears to lower the RR of ACD (0.93) and
2.3. Exposures (risk factors) AD (0.89) [6]. A longitudinal study in Finland reported an
increased relative risk of AD of 2.3 in the long term after
List of risk factors was considered. Exposures were mea- elevated SBP [7]. However, a decline in SBP of 15 or more
sured in the same way for those with and without dementia. mm Hg appears to predate the onset of both ACD and AD,
according to data from the Kungsholmen project [8]. From
2.4. Outcomes
the same study group a DBP of less than 65 mm Hg is also
Dementia and subtypes were defined by standardized associated with a RR of 1.54 for ACD and 1.7 for AD, as
criteria. Ascertainment of outcome was independent of ex- does a pulse pressure of less than 70 mm Hg [9]. Thus, it
posure status. would appear that increased SBP increases the risk of sub-
sequent ACD, AD, and vascular dementia (VaD) in women,
2.5. Analysis but so apparently does reduced systolic, diastolic, and pulse
Important confounders were included in analysis (age, pressure below normal levels, overall a somewhat contra-
sex, education at minimum). Statistical analysis was appro- dictory and confusing situation.
priate (ie, multiple logistic regression). Specific measures of
risk are stated (eg, relative risk). 4.2. Diabetes mellitus
The overall quality rating was determined as good (all Several studies have linked the presence of type 2 dia-
criteria fulfilled adequately); fair (most criteria fulfilled ad- betes mellitus to subsequent development of dementia.
equately, no fatal flaw); or poor (fatal flaw or multiple minor Analysis of data from the Canadian Study of Health and
inadequacies). Each article was reviewed for quality inde- Aging (CSHA) concluded that diabetes increased the risk of
pendently by two readers, and a consensus was reached if ACD and AD, although the increased risks did not reach
disagreement occurred. Articles graded as good or fair were statistical significance. For VaD, however, the RR was 2.03
then submitted for data abstraction by two independent [10]. Diabetes in midlife was shown to increase the subse-
reviewers. quent risk of ACD (OR, 2.83) in a stratified sample of civil
servants from Tel Aviv [11]. From the Kungsholmen Study
3. Results in Sweden, Xu et al [12] concluded that there was an
increased risk of ACD and VaD (HR, 1.5 and 2.6, respec-
Risk factors are either immutable (eg, age, gender, eth- tively), although the increased risk for AD did not reach
nicity) or potentially modifiable. This article deals only with statistical significance. Data collected within a large ran-
potentially modifiable risk factors. A total of 60 articles of domized controlled trial of raloxifene suggested an in-
single longitudinal studies were identified to be of good or creased risk of ACD in those with diabetes mellitus, but the
fair quality. In addition, eight systematic reviews of good or increased OR of 2.38 did not reach statistical significance
fair quality also addressed relevant risk factors. Table 1 [13]. Thus, there is fair evidence that the presence of type 2
summarizes risk factors and their relative risk (RR) for diabetes mellitus increases the risk of ACD and VaD.
dementia of different types. Other measures of risk (eg,
odds ratio [OR], hazard ratio [HR]) are indicated where 4.3. Stroke
necessary.
The presence of clinical strokes or of silent infarctions on
neuroimaging increases the risk of subsequent dementia.
4. Potentially modifiable risk factors The temporal relationship between stroke and onset of de-
4.1. Blood pressure mentia is a diagnostic criterion for VaD. Longitudinal stud-
ies have shown that stroke increases the subsequent risk of
The relationship between blood pressure and subsequent ACD (RR, 2.4) [14] and AD (RR, 1.83) [15]. The presence
development of dementia is somewhat confusing. Both of silent brain infarctions visible on magnetic resonance
higher and lower systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure imaging scanning is associated with an increased risk of
C. Patterson et al. / Alzheimer’s & Dementia 3 (2007) 341–347 343

Table1
Risk factors for dementia: RR (95% CI) [references]
ACD AD VAD

Systolic hypertension 1.6 (1.1 to 2.2) [4] RR, 1.5 (1.0 to 2.3) [4]; 2.05 (1.2 to 3.53) [25],
OR, 2.3 (1.0 to 5.5) [7] women only
DBP ⬍ 65 mm Hg 1.5 (1.0 to 2.1) [4] 1.7 (1.1 to 2.4) [4]
PP ⬎ 84 mm Hg 1.3 (0.9 to 1.7) [9] 1.4 (1.0 to 2.0) [9]
PP ⬍ 70 mm Hg 1.4 (1.0 to 1.9) [9] 1.7 (1.2 to 2.3) [9]
SBP decline ⱖ 15 mm Hg 3.1 (1.5 to 6.3) [8] 3.1 (1.3 to 7.0) [8]
SBP ⬍ 140 mm Hg 1.9 (1.2 to 3.2) [5] 2.2 (1.2 to 3.8) [5]
Diabetes mellitus, type 2 1.26 (0.9 to 1.76) [10] 1.3 (0.83 to 2.03) [10] 2.03 (1.15 to 3.57) [10]
2.38 (0.92 to 6.12) [13] 1.3 (0.9 to 2.1) [12] HR, 2.6 (1.2 to 6.1) [12]
2.83 (1.4 to 5.71) [11]
Stroke 2.4 (1.6 to 3.7) [14] 1.83 (1.14 to 2.95) [15] Required for diagnosis
Silent infarcts on neuroimaging 2.17 (1.04 to 4.54) [18]
HR, 2.26 (1.09 to 4.70) [16]
Serum cholesterol 1 3.1 (1.5 to 6.3) [19] 2.1 (1.0 to 4.4) [7]
3.1 (1.2 to 8.5) [19]
Serum homocysteine 1 2.08 (1.31 to 3.30) [20] 2.11 (1.19 to 3.76) [20]
Serum thyroid-stimulating hormone 2 3.5 (1.1 to 11.5) [21]
Sex hormones: higher total estrogen 1.45 (1.08 to 1.94) [22] 1.30 (0.88 to 1.99) [22]
level (women)
Sex hormones: higher free testosterone 0.74 (0.57 to 0.96) [23]
index (men)
Depression 1.87 (1.09 to 3.20) [26] Men: OR, 4.2 (2.1 to 8.8) OR, 2.41 (1.22 to 4.52) [25]
Men: OR, 3.5 (1.9 to 6.5) Women: OR, 1.0 (0.5 to 1.9) [24]
Women: OR, 1.2 (0.7 to 2.0) [24]
High fat intake 2.4 (1.1 to 5.4) [27]
Fish consumption ⬎ once/week 0.4 (0.2 to 0.9) [27] 0.3 (0.1 to 0.9) [27] Shellfish: OR, 0.45
0.73 (0.52 to 1.03) [28] (.22 to .88) [25]
Vitamin E: lowest tertile serum level 2.54 (1.06 to 6.10) [29] 2.10 (0.81 to 5.54) [29]
Moderate wine consumption, 250 to OR, 0.19 (.05 to 0.66) [30] 0.53 (0.3 to 0.95) [28]
500 mL/day 0.56 (0.36 to 0.92) [28]
Activity: highest level, physical 0.58 (0.41 to 0.83) [33] 0.5 (0.28 to 0.90) [32] OR, 0.46 (0.25 to 0.82),
0.63 (0.40 to 0.98) [32] 0.55 (0.34 to 0.88) [33] women [25]
0.69 (0.5 to 0.96) [31]
Activity: highest level, mental, daily 0.59 (0.37 to 0.96) [34]
Smoking 1.10 (0.94 to 1.29) [37]
1.99 (1.33 to 2.98) [3]
Occupation Manual work: 1.6 (1.0 to 2.5) [49] Manual work: 1.4 (0.9 to 2.1) [49]
Exposure to toxins (pesticides, 4.35 (1.05 to 17.90) [36] OR, 2.05 (1.03 to 3.85) [25]
fertilizers, fumigants), defoliants
Head injury With LOC: 1.14 (0.84 to 1.56) [37] With LOC: 1.02 (0.68 to 1.15) [37]
Moderate: HR, 2.39 (1.24 to 4.58) [38] Moderate: HR, 2.32 (1.04 to 5.1) [38]
Severe: HR, 4.48 (2.09 to 9.63) [38] Severe: HR, 4.51 (1.77 to 11.47) [38]
Education ⬎ 15 vs ⬍ 12 0.64 (0.4 to 1.0) [48] 0.48 (0.27 to 0.84) [48]
Statin drugs 1.19 (0.82 to 1.75) [41] 0.82 (0.46 to 1.46) [41]
HR, 1.19 (0.53 to 2.34) [40] HR, 1.19 (0.35 to 2.96) [40]
All lipid-lowering drugs OR, 0.26 (0.08 to 0.88) [39], age less
than 80 y
NSAIDs 0.51 (0.37 to 0.70) [44] 0.42 (0.26 to 0.66) [42]
Benzodiazepines Ever used: OR, 1.7 (1.2 to 2.4)
Former use: OR, 2.3 (1.2 to 4.5) [45]
Vaccination Any vaccination: 0.40
(0.17 to 0.96) [36]
Influenza: 0.75 (0.54 to 1.04)
Poliomyelitis: 0.6 (.37 to .99)
Diphtheria or tetanus: 0.41
(.27 to .62) [47]

Abbreviation: LOC, loss of consciousness; NSAIDs, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs.


344 C. Patterson et al. / Alzheimer’s & Dementia 3 (2007) 341–347

ACD (HR, 2.26) [16]. From a prospective study of stroke of eating fish regularly. In the PAQUID longitudinal study,
patients in hospital in Lille, France, in which prestroke weekly consumption of fish was associated with an RR of
cognitive function was assessed with the IQCODE [17], 0.73 for ACD, although this was of marginal significance
the presence of silent infarctions increased the risk of sub- [28]. Regular consumption of shellfish was also associated
sequent ACD (RR, 2.7) [18]. Thus, there is compelling with a reduced risk of VaD in the CSHA, with an OR of
evidence that the presence of strokes increases the risk of 0.45 [25]. There appears to be consistent epidemiologic
both ACD and VaD. evidence that regular consumption of fish and seafood is
associated with reduced risk of dementia. A single study
4.4. Serum cholesterol
reported an association between the lowest tertile of serum
Midlife elevation in serum cholesterol has been associ- vitamin E levels and elevated risk of both ACD and AD, but
ated with increased risk of subsequent AD (OR, 2.1) [7] and statistical significance was not reached [29].
(OR, 3.1) [19]. The risk of ACD was also elevated (RR, 3.1)
with higher levels of cholesterol [19]. There appears to be 4.9.2. Wine
good evidence that elevated serum cholesterol is associated The PAQUID study in France established that the con-
with an increased risk of ACD and AD. sumption of moderate amounts of red wine (250 to 500
mL/day) was associated with a RR of 0.56 for ACD and a
4.5. Hyperhomocysteinemia
RR of 0.53 for AD [28]. In the same study population,
A single prospective study has established an association moderate consumption, compared with other degrees of
between serum homocysteine levels in excess of 15 ␮mol/L usage, was associated with a lower risk of ACD (RR, 0.19)
and ACD (RR, 2.08) and AD (RR, 2.11; 95% confidence [30]. Furthermore, in the CSHA population, consumption of
interval [CI], 1.19 to 3.76) [20]. wine at least weekly was associated with a reduced risk of
AD (OR, 0.49), although this lost statistical significance
4.6. Hyperthyroidism
when decedents were included in the analysis [31].
A single study showed an association between a de-
pressed level of serum thyroid-stimulating hormone and 4.9.3. Activity
subsequent development of AD [21]. There is evidence that regular physical activity is asso-
ciated with a reduced risk of dementia. In the CSHA, reg-
4.7. Sex hormone levels
ular physical activity was associated with an OR of 0.69 for
In women, levels of total estrogen are associated with a AD [31], and when this was quantified, those with the
higher risk of ACD (RR, 1.45) [22], whereas in men, higher highest level of physical activity had a reduced risk of ACD
levels of free testosterone index are associated with lower (OR, 0.63) and of AD (OR, 0.5) [32]. In the Cardiovascular
risk of AD (RR, 0.74) [23]. Health Study from the USA, when those expending the
highest quartile of energy expenditure were compared with
4.8. Depression the lowest, the RR was 0.58 for ACD and 0.55 for AD [33].
The presence of depressive symptoms was associated Regular exercise was also associated with RR of VaD in the
with subsequent development of dementia only in men in CSHA; in women only, OR for VaD was 0.46 [25].
the PAQUID Study. For men, the OR of developing ACD Daily mental activities were associated with a RR of 0.59
was 3.5, and the RR for AD was 4.3. In women there was for ACD in the Kungsholmen Study [34]. In the Washington
no statistically significant association [24]. For VaD, data Heights District of New York, a longitudinal study found an
from the CSHA indicated that the presence of depression association between high leisure activities and decreased
increased the risk of VaD (OR, 2.41) [25]. A systematic incidence of ACD, with a RR of 0.62 [35]. It is thus
evidence review concluded that depression is associated plausible that maintaining a high level of mental activity
with an RR of 1.87 for ACD [26]. might be associated with reduced subsequent incidence of
ACD.
4.9. Lifestyle factors
4.9.1. Diet 4.9.4. Smoking
A high intake of total fat (⬎ 85.5 g/day) increases the RR A systematic review [3] compared the association of
for ACD by 2.4 compared with a fat intake of ⬍ 75.5 g/day smoking with dementia in case-controlled and prospective
[27], but in this longitudinal population study from the cohort studies. Although there appeared to be a protective
Netherlands, increased amounts of saturated fat and choles- effect in the case-controlled studies, the prospective cohort
terol were not established as definite risk factors. The con- studies established an increased risk for AD (RR, 1.99) in
sumption of fish greater than 18.5 g/day compared with less studies that described the number of smokers at baseline [3].
than 3.0 g/day lowered the risk of both ACD (RR, 0.4) and This should settle, once and for all, the positive association
AD (RR, 0.3). Other studies have also suggested the benefit between smoking and AD.
C. Patterson et al. / Alzheimer’s & Dementia 3 (2007) 341–347 345

4.9.5. Exposure to toxins tive studies concluded that increased risk of cognitive de-
Evidence from CSHA established an association be- cline was reported in three, decreased in two, and un-
tween exposure to pesticides or fertilizers and VaD (OR, changed in one [46].
2.05) [25]. Exposure to defoliants and fumigants was asso-
4.10.4. Vaccinations
ciated with an increased risk of AD (RR, 4.35) in a longi-
Prior inoculations against poliomyelitis, diphtheria, or
tudinal study from Manitoba, Canada [36].
tetanus and influenza are all associated with a lower risk of
4.9.6. Head trauma AD [47]. In addition, inoculations of any kind appear to
Four population-based samples comprised the EURODEM reduce AD risk [36].
Study. In this study head trauma with unconsciousness was
4.11. Education
associated with an increased RR of both ACD (1.14) and AD
(1.02); however, neither of these reached statistical signifi- Longer periods of education have been associated with
cance [37]. In the CSHA, prior head injury with or without reduced risk of AD, and this relationship has been con-
loss of consciousness did not show any increased risk of AD firmed. When compared with those receiving less than 12
(OR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.56 to 1.36) [31]. However, in a years of education, people engaged in more than 15 years of
long-term study of U.S. servicemen who had been injured education had a reduced risk of both ACD (RR, 0.64) and
during World War II, moderate head injury was associated AD (RR, 0.48) [48].
with an HR of 2.39 for ACD and 2.32 for AD [38]. For
severe injury the HR for ACD was 4.48 and 4.51 for AD. A 4.12. Occupation
conclusive association between head injury and subsequent Data from the Kungsholmen project in Sweden sug-
dementia remains to be established. gested that manual labor increased the risk of both ACD
4.10. Drug exposure (RR, 1.6) and AD (RR, 1.4), although the latter just missed
statistical significance [49]. Other studies have not con-
4.10.1. Lipid-lowering agents firmed this relationship.
Although a nested case-control study within the CSHA
suggested that in individuals younger than 80 years of age,
5. Conclusion
use of all types of lipid-lowering agents reduced the risk of
AD, with an OR of 0.26 at 5 years [39], other studies have This systematic review has explored the current state of
not confirmed this finding. In the Cache County Study, the evidence concerning risk factors for ACD, AD, and VaD,
use of statin-type drugs was associated with a nonsignificant which are presented in Table 1. Although for many of these
increased HR of 1.19 for both ACD (95% CI, 0.53 to 2.34) risk factors the evidence remains inconclusive or contradic-
and AD (95% CI, 0.53 to 2.96) at 3 years [40]. There were tory, for others an emerging picture of consensus is appear-
similar findings in an American community-based study in ing. It should be noted that with rare exceptions, there are no
which use of statin agents was associated with a nonsignif- data on the effects of multiple risk factors in the same
icant increased HR of 1.19 (95% CI, 0.83 to 1.75) for ACD individual. One exception is a Finnish study in which the
but a nonsignificant reduced HR of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.46 to combined risk of systolic hypertension (OR, 2.3) and hy-
1.46) for AD [41]. percholesterolemia (OR, 2.1) increases the OR for AD to
3.5 [7]. Research priorities should focus on remediable risk
4.10.2. Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs
factors that have the highest chance of being corrected.
Individual studies such as the Cache County popula-
These include such risk factors as hypertension, hypercho-
tion have concluded that exposure to nonsteroidal anti-
lesterolemia, inadequate physical and mental activity, and
inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) is associated with reduced
dietary factors. Attempts to limit the noxious effects of
risk of AD (RR, 0.42) [42]. A systematic review of six
smoking and head injury are justifiable for their own sake
longitudinal studies in 2003 concluded that there was a
and might also have benefits in the cognitive domain.
nonsignificant reduction in RR of 0.84 (95% CI, 0.54
to1.05) for AD [43]. However, a more recent and compre-
hensive systematic review of 25 studies, both cohort and Author Disclosures
case-controlled, concluded that NSAID exposure was asso-
ciated with a significantly reduced risk of both prevalent Angeles Garcia has received support from Janssen-Ortho
(RR, 0.51) and incident (RR, 0.79) cases of ACD [44]. (Consultant, Advisor), Pfizer (Consultant, Advisor), Novartis
(Consultant, Advisor), and Lundbeck (Consultant, Advisor).
4.10.3. Benzodiazepines Chris MacKnight has received support from Alzheimer
In a French population-based study, exposure to benzo- Society of Nova Scotia (Board Member), Janssen-Ortho
diazepine drugs at any time was associated with an in- (Speaker, Trial Investigator), Pfizer Canada (Speaker, Trial
creased risk of ACD (OR, 1.7), and for former use the OR Investigator), Novartis (Speaker, Trial Investigator), Lund-
was 2.3 [45]. However, a systematic review of six prospec- beck Canada (Speaker, Trial Investigator), Voyager Phar-
346 C. Patterson et al. / Alzheimer’s & Dementia 3 (2007) 341–347

maceuticals (Trial Investigator), Myriad (Trial Investiga- [17] Jorm AF, Scott R, Cullen JS, MacKinnon AJ. Performance of the
tor), and Neurochem (Trial Investigator). Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly
(IQCODE) as a screening test for dementia. Psychol Med 1991;21:
785–90.
[18] Henon H, Durieu I, Guerouaou D, Lebert F, Pasquier F, Leys D.
Acknowledgments
Poststroke dementia: incidence and relationship to prestroke cogni-
During preparation of this article, Christopher Patterson tive decline. Neurology 2001;57:1216 –22.
[19] Notkola I-L, Sulkava R, Pekkanen J, Erkinjuntti T, Ehnholm C,
received financial support from the Institute of Advanced
Kivinen P, et al. Serum total cholesterol, apolipoprotein E ␧4 allele,
Studies, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy. and Alzheimer’s disease. Neuroepidemiology 1998;17:14 –20.
Chris MacKnight is supported from a CIHR New Inves- [20] Ravaglia G, Forti P, Maioli F, Martelli M, Servadei L, Brunetti N,
tigator Award. et al. Homocysteine and folate as risk factors for dementia and
Alzheimer disease. Am J Clin Nutr 2005;82:636 – 43.
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