I nawili empiriuli kvlevebis safuZvlebi 95

cvladi
sakvlevi problemebi aisaxeba cnebebSi. meore TavSi davinaxeT,
rom cnebebi abstraqciebia, romlebic warmogvidgenen empiriul
fenomenebs. imisaTvis, rom gadavideT konceptualuri donidan em­
piriul doneze, cnebebi gardaiqmneba cvladebad. cnebebi cvladebis
saxiT Semodis hipoTezebSi da mowmdeba.
cnebebi cvladebad gardaiqmneba maTi `gadaTargmniT~ da ga­
nawilebiT mniSvnelobebad. magaliTad, rodesac mkvlevari obi­
eqtebs miawers ricxvebs (erT-erTi tipi mniSvnelobisa), igi
obieqtebs ricxvebis saxiT ganalagebs. cvladi aris empiriuli
Tavisebureba, romelsac SeiZleba hqondes ori an meti mniSvn­
eloba. Tu Tavisebureba SesaZlebelia Seicvalos rogorc ra­
odenobrivad, aseve Tvisebrivad, maSin igi cvladad miiCneva.
magaliTad, `socialuri klasi~ aris cvladi, vinaidan SesaZle­
belia movaxdinoT misi diferencireba sul mcire xuT mniSvn­
elobad: `dabali~, `saSualoze dabali~, `saSualo~, `saSualoze
maRali~, `maRali~. aseTive SemTxvevaa `molodinebi~. esec cvla­
dia, radgan mas SeiZleba hqondes sul mcire ori mniSvneloba:
`maRali~ da `dabali~.
cvlads, romelsac SeiZleba hqondes mxolod ori mniSvn­
eloba, ewodeba diqotomiuri cvladi. mkvlevrebma aseve mniS­
vnelovnad miiCnies gaevloT zRvari damokidebuls, damoukideb­
elsa da sakontrolo cvladebs, aseve uwyvetsa da diskretul
cvladebs Soris.

damokidebuli da damoukidebeli cvladebi

cvladi, romlis axsnac surs mkvlevars, aris damokidebuli, xolo
cvladi, romelic mkvlevaris varaudiT xsnis cvlilebas damokide­
bul cvladSi, aris damoukidebeli cvladi. damoukidebel cvlads
ganmartebiT cvladi ewodeba. igi savaraudod ganapirobebs cvlile­
bas damokidebuli cvladebis mniSvnelobebSi. damokidebuli cvladi
ganpirobebulia damoukidebeli cvladisagan an gavlenas ganicdis
misi mxridan. (damokidebul cvlads aseve uwodeben sazom cvladebs,
xolo damoukidebel cvladebs maprognozirebel cvladebs).
maTematikis enaze, damokidebuli cvladi is cvladia, romelic
tolobis marcxena mxares dgas. magaliTad, Tu vwerT, rom Y = f (X)
, vTvliT, rom Y Y damokidebuli cvladia, xolo X damoukidebeli
96

cvladi. am SemTxvevaSi vambobT, rom Y Y aris X-is funqcia ( f ), anu

cvlilebebi X-is mniSvnelobebSi dakavSirebulia cvlilebebTan Y
Y-Si, X imorCilebs Y-s.
magaliTad, mkvlevars SeiZleba surdes axsnas, ratom monawil­
eobs zogierTi adamiani sxvebTan SedarebiT ufro metad politi­
kaSi. socialuri kmayofilebis Teoriaze dayrdnobiT, mecnierma
SeiZleba daaskvnas, rom rac ufro maRalia individis socialuri
klasi, miT ufro metia Sansi, rom igi monawileobas miiRebs poli­
tikaSi. am SemTxvevaSi mkvlevari ayenebs hipoTezas, rom politi­
kaSi CarTuloba (damokidebuli cvladi) socialuri klasis Sedegia.
navaraudevia, rom socialuri klasi (damoukidebeli cvladi) aris
politikaSi CarTulobis variaciebis mizezi.
unda aRiniSnos, rom gansxvaveba damokidebulsa da damoukidebel
cvladebs Soris analitikuria da dakavSirebulia mxolod kvlevis
mizanTan. realurad cvladebi arc damokidebulia da arc damoukide­
beli: mkvlevari wyvets, rogor Sexedos maT da gadawyvetileba kv­
levis mizans emyareba. cvladi, romelic damoukidebelia erT kv­
levaSi, SeiZleba damokidebuli iyos meoreSi da igive mkvlevari,
romelic gansxvavebul proeqtebze muSaobs, erTsa da imave cvlads
SeiZleba aniWebdes sxvadsxva statuss. Tu Tqven gsurT, rom axsnaT
politikaSi CarTulobis variaciebi, politikaSi CarTuloba iqneba
damokidebuli cvladi. erT-erTi cvladi, romelic xsnis variaciebs
politikaSi CarTulobaSi, aris socialuri klasi, romelic iqneba
damoukidebeli cvladi. magram Tu Tqven gsurT axsnaT variaciebi
socialur klasSi (magaliTad, ratom miekuTvneba zogierTi indi­
vidi dabal klass da zogierTi saSualos), socialuri klasi axla
CaiTvleba damokidebul cvladad. erTi cvladi, romelic SeiZleba
xsnides variaciebs socialur klasSi, aris CarTuloba politikaSi,
rac am SemTxvevaSi ukve damoukidebel cvladad mogvevlineba.
fenomenTa umetesoba, romelTac sociologebi swavlobs,
moiTxovs erT an met damokidebul cvladze ramdenime damoukide­
beli cvladis efeqtebis Sefasebas. es imitom xdeba, rom socialuri
fenomenebi Zalian kompleqsuria. erTi damoukidebeli cvladi Cveu­
lebriv xsnis damokidebuli cvladis variaciis mxolod garkveul
nawils da saWiro xdeba mkvlevarma damatebiTi damoukidebeli cv­
ladebi warmoadginos, raTa aixsnas meti variacia. magaliTad, rode­
sac politikuri monawileoba Seiswavleba, rogorc damokidebuli
cvladi, socialuri klasi xsnis ratom monawileobs zogierTi ada­
miani sxvebTan SedarebiT metad politikaSi. aseTi axsna arasrulia,
radgan sxva faqtorebic arsebobs, romelic xsnis variaciebs poli­
 I nawili empiriuli kvlevebis safuZvlebi 97

tikur monawileobaSi. am damatebiT faqtorebs Soris, rogorc da­

moukidebel cvladebs Soris, aris asaki, sqesi, ganaTleba, politi­
kuri qmediTunarianobis grZnoba (ra xarisxiT arian darwmunebulni
individebi, rom maTi monawileoba politikur Sedegebze gavlenas
moaxdens).

makontrolebeli cvladi
mecnierebi empiriul kvlevaSi makontrolebel cvladebs iyene­
ben, raTa Seamciron damokidebuli cvladebis araswori damoukide­
beli cvladebiT axsnis riski. makontrolebeli cvladebi gamoiy­
eneba imis Sesamowmeblad, Tu empiriulad gamovlenili mimarTeba
damokidebulsa da damoukidebel cvladebs Soris aris yalbi. yalbi
mimarTeba aris mimarTeba, romelic SeiZleba aixsnas sxva cvladebiT
da ara im cvladebiT, romlebic hipoTezaSia wamoyenebuli. sxva si­
tyvebiT rom vTqvaT, Tu yvela sxva cvladis gavlena gamoricxulia
(an gakontrolebulia) da empiriuli mimarTeba damokidebulsa da
damoukidebel cvladebs Soris mainc vlindeba, SeiZleba miviCnioT,
rom mimarTeba ar aris yalbi. sakontrolo cvladebis gamoyenebiT
mkvlevars SeuZlia darwmundes, rom arsebobs niSandoblivi, kauza­
luri kavSiri cvladebs Soris, rogorc es hipoTezaSia naTqvami da
rom gamovlenili mimarTeba ar emyareba gauTvaliswinebel kavSirs
sxva romelime fenomenTan.
magaliTad, SeniSneT, rom mexanZreTa raodenoba xanZris adgilas
dakavSirebulia xanZris mier miyenebul zianTan. anu Cveni hipoTeza
mdgomareobs SemdegSi: rac ufro didia xanZris adgilas mexanZreTa
raodenoba, miT metia cecxlis miyenebuli zarali. zogadad, ar
miiCneva, rom mexanZreebi arian zaralis pirdapiri mizezi. Sesabam­
isad, xanZris mier miyenebuli zarali (damokidebuli cvladi) ar
SeiZleba aixsnas mexanZreTa raodenobiT (damoukidebeli cvladi).
amis mizezi raRac sxva cvladi, kerZod xanZris moculoba. didi
xanZari ufro met mexanZres moiTxovs da ufro did zarals iwvevs.
amdenad sawyis etapze aRmoCenili mimarTeba mexanZreTa raodeno­
basa da xanZris mier miyenebul zarals Soris yalbia. ramdenadac
arsebobs mesame faqtori, xanZris moculoba, romelic realurad
xsnis am faqts. am SemTxvevaSi, xanZris moculoba gamoyenebulia
rogorc makontrolebeli cvladi sawyisi mimarTebis marTebulobis
Sesamowmeblad. makontrolebeli cvladis gavlenis gareSe mimarTe­
ba, romelsac davakvirdiT mexanZreTa raodenobasa da xanZris mier
miyenebul zarals Soris, yalbi iqneboda. es kargad Cans 3.1 naxazze.
98

meore magaliTi, sadac Cans makontrolebeli cvladebis mniSvn­

eloba, aris empiriuli mimarTeba, romelic gamovlinda politikur
monawileobasa da mTavrobis xarjebs Soris. aris Tu ara mTavrobis
xarjebis moculoba (damokidebuli cvladi) gamowveuli politikuri
monawileobis xarisxiT (damoukidebeli cvladi)? Cans, rom ki. ma­
gram kvleva gviCvenebs, rom empiriuli mimarTeba politikur monaw­
ileobasa da mTavrobis xarjebs Soris qreba, rodesac Semogvaqvs
sakontrolo cvladi ekonomikuri ganviTarebis saxiT.3 ekonomikuri
ganviTarebis done gavlenas axdens oriveze, mTavrobis xarjebzec
da politikur monawileobazec. ekonomikuri ganviTarebis gavlenis
gareSe, gamovlenili mimarTeba politikur monawileobasa da mTav­

naxazi 3.1
sakontrolo cvladebis mniSvneloba

sakontrolo cvladi
xanZris moculoba

sawyisi dakvirveba
sawyisi dakvirveba xanZris mier miyenebuli zia-
mexanZreTa raodenoba yalbi mimarTeba nis done

robis xarjebs Soris, validuri darCeboda. amdenad makontrole­

beli cvladebi mniSvnelovan mizans emsaxureba, rac gulisxmobs
Semowmebas, aris Tu ara damoukidebelsa da damokidebul cvladebs
Soris gamovlenili mimarTeba yalbi (yalbi da marTebuli mimarTe­
bebis Sesaxeb ufro vrclad ixileT mexuTe Tavi).

3 For the first breakthrough study on this issue, see Hayward R. Alker, Mathematics and Politics ( New York:
Macmillan, 1965).
 I nawili empiriuli kvlevebis safuZvlebi 99

uwyveti da diskretuli cvladebi

cvladebis kidev erTi mniSvnelovani maxasiaTebelia uwyvetoba-

diskretoba. Tu diskretulni. es Tavisebureba, rogorc amas Sem­
dgom TavebSi davinaxavT, gavlenas axdens kvlevis operaciebze,
gansakuTrebiT ki gazomvis procedurebze, monacemTa analizze,
statistikuri daskvnebis gamotanis meTodebsa da logikur ganzo­
gadebaze.
uwyvet cvlads ara aqvs minimaluri zomis erTeuli. manZili
swored uwyveti cvladis magaliTia, vinaidan bunebaSi ar arsebobs
manZilis minimaluri erTeuli. garkevuli sagani SeiZleba iyos aTi
duimis sigrZisa, is SeiZleba aseve iyos 10,5 duimi sigrZeSi, an
10,5431697. SegiZlia vilaparakoT duimis meaTedze, meaTiaTasedze,
meaTitrilionedze da a.S. miuxedavad imisa, rom ar SegviZlia gavzo­
moT manZilis yvela SesaZlo mniSvneloba absoluturi sizustiT
(zogierTi sagani metismetad patara iqneba saimisod, rom mis gazom­
vas Tavi gaarTvas instrumentma), konceptualurad SesaZlebelia,
rom arsebobdes manZilis auracxeli mniSvnelobebi.
uwyveti cvladebisagan gansxvavebiT, diskretul cvladebs aqvs
minimaluri erTeuli. fulis raodenoba Tqvens sabanko angariSze
diskretuli cvladis magaliTia, ramdenadac valutas minimaluri
erTeuli aqvs. sabanko angariSze SeiZleba gqondeT 101,21 dolari

cvladebis tipebi
damokidebuli cvladi: cvladi, romlis axsnasac cdilobs
mkvlevari.
damoukidebeli cvladi: cvladi, romelic iwvevs cvlilebas
damokidebul cvladSi.
sakontrolo cvladi: mkvlevarebi iyeneben am tipis cvladebs,
raTa Seamowmon albaToba, rom mimarTeba damokidebulsa da
damoukidebel cvlads Soris aris yalbi_anu sxva sityvebiT rom
vTqvaT, es mimarTeba SeiZleba ganpirobebuli iyos sxva cvladis
arsebobiT.
uwyveti cvladi: cvladi, romelsac ara aqvs minimaluri erTeuli.
aseTi cvladia manZili.
diskretuli cvladi: cvladi, romelsac aqvs minimaluri erTeuli,
magaliTad bavSvebis raodenoba ojaxSi.
100

an 101,22 dolari, magram ver geqnebaT 101,21843 dolari. fulis

sxvadasxva raodenoba erTmaneTisagan unda gansxvavdebodes sul
mcire erTi minimaluri erTeuliT, am SemTxvevaSi erTi centiT.
bavSvebis raodenoba ojaxSi aseve diskretuli cvladis magaliTia,
radgan minimaluri erTeuli aris erTi bavSvi. ojaxs SeiZleba hy­
avdes sami an oTxi bavSvi, magram 3,5 bavSvi ver eyoleba. Tu cvla­
dis garkveuli odenoba metad veRar daiyofa, cvladi diskretulia.
unda gesmodeT, rodesac kiTxulobT, rom saSualo amerikul ojaxSi
2,2 bavSvi da 1.8 manqanaa, es ar niSnavs imas, rom analizis diskre­
tuli erTeuli, bavSvi, an avtomobili, realur cxovrebaSi SeiZleba
kidev daiyos. ricxvebi 2,2 da 1,8 statistikaa, maTematikuri manipu­
laciis Sedegi (ixileT meSvide da meToTxmete Tavebi damatebiTi
ganmartebisaTvis).

mimarTeba
wina TavebSi davinaxeT, rom samecniero axsna da prognozire­
ba moicavs asaxsnel fenomenebsa (damokidebuli cvladi) da sxva
fenomenebs Soris (ganmartebiTi, anu damoukidebeli cvladi) zoga­
di kanonebiT an TeoriebiT. magram ra aris mimarTeba?
kvlevaSi mimarTeba yovelTvis exeba kavSirs or an met cvlads
Soris. rodesac vambobT, rom X cvladsa da Y Y cvlads Soris aris
mimarTeba, vgulisxmobT imas, rom am or cvlads Soris aris raRac
saerTo. magaliTad, Tu vambobT, rom ganaTlebasa da Semosavals
Soris aris mimarTeba, vgulisxmobT imas, rom es ori cvladi `erTad
dadis~, isini kovarirebs, erTad icvleba sistematuri gziT. kovaria­
cia aris is, rac ganaTlebasa da Semosavals aqvT saerTo: individebs
maRali ganaTlebiT aseve maRali xelfasi aqvs. damokidebulebis
dadgena empiriul kvlevaSi moicavs gansazRvras, kovarirebs Tu
ara erTi cvladis mniSvnelobebi sxva erTi an meti cvladis mniSvn­
elobebTan da aseve moicavs am mniSvnelobebaTa gazomvas. mkvlevari
sistematurad awyvilebs erTi cvladis mniSvnelobebs sxva cvladebis
mniSvnelobebTan. magaliTad, 3.1 cxrilze mocemulia dakvirvebebaTa
ori wyeba, romlebic gviCvenebs eqvsi individis ganaTlebis mniSvn­
elobebsa (operacionalurad gansazRvrulia swavlisaTvis daTmo­
bili wlebiT) da Semosavlebs. cxrili gamoxatavs damokidebulebas,
vinaidan mniSvnelobaTa ori mwkrivi dakavSirebulia mowesrigebulad
_ isini kovarirebs: maRali ganaTleba dakavSirebulia maRal Semo­
savalTan da dabali ganaTleba _ dabal SemosavalTan.
 I nawili empiriuli kvlevebis safuZvlebi 101

cxrili 3.1
damokidebuleba ganaTlebasa da Semosavals Soris

dakvirvebebi swavlisaTvis daTmobili Semosavali

wlebi
deni 16 $35000
eni 15 30000
mari 14 27000
jeikobi 13 19000
filipi 12 15000
suzeni 11 12000
 

mimarTebis tipebi
or cvlads Soris mimarTebaze SegviZlia vilaparakoT im Sem­
TxvevaSi, roca erT-erTis mniSvnelobebis cvlileba iwvevs cvli­
lebebs meoris mniSvnelobebSi. ukanasknel magaliTSi, cvlilebebi
swavlisadmi daTmobil wlebSi gamoiwvevs cvlilebebs SemosavalSi.
mecnierebi damokidebulebis or Tvisebaze msjeloben, rodesac em­
piriul kvlevas atareben: mimarTebis damokidebulebasa da magni­
tudaze.

mimarTebis mimarTuleba. rodesac vsaubrobT mimarTulebaze,

mxedvelobaSi gvaqvs is, rom mimarTeba cvladebs Soris an poziti­
uria an negatiuri. pozitiuri mimarTeba niSnavs, rom erTi cvladis
mniSvnelobis zrda iwvevs zrdas meore cvladis mniSvnelobebSi.
magaliTad, mimarTeba ganaTlebasa da Semosavals Soris pozitiuria,
ramdenadac swavlisadmi daTmobil wlebis zrda iwvevs Semosavlis
aseve zrdas. pozitiuri mimarTeba politikiT dainteresebulobasa
da politikur monawi­leobas Soris: rac ufro metad ainteresebT
individebs politika, miT ufro metad amJRavneben isini tenden­
cias CaerTon politikur aqtivobebSi. kvlevebma aseve pozitiuri
damokidebuleba gamoavlina ekonomikur ganviTarebasa da mTavrobis
xarjebs Soris, rogorc es adrec aRvniSneT.
negatiuri (anu Sebrunebuli) mimarTeba miuTiTebs, rom rac ufro
izrdeba erTi cvladis mniSvnelobebi, miT ufro mci­rdeba meore
cvladis mniSvnelobebi. erTi cvladis maRali mniSvneloba gvxvdeba
meore cvladis dabal mniSvnelobasTan erTad. magaliTad, saxlis
102

dagiravebis procenti negatiur mimarTebaSia axali saxlisaTvis

sesxebis aRebasTan: rac ufro izrdeba dagiravebis procenti, miT
ufro iklebs sesxis aRebis procenti. aseve Sebrunebuli mimarTeba
arsebobs ganaTlebasa da rasistul prejudisebs Soris: maRali ga­
naTlebis mqone adamianebs naklebad aqvT rasistuli prejudisebi.
negatiuri damokidebuleba aRmoCnda biurokratizaciasa da poli­
tikur monawileobas Soris: rac ufro biurokratiulia politikuri
sistema, miT ufro naklebia politikuri monawileobis done.
damoukidebel da damokidebul cvladebs Soris mimarTebis sai­
lustraciod SegviZlia gamoviyenoT orTogonaluri RerZebi (ix.
naxazi 3.2). maTemetikuri tradiciis Tanaxmad, X, damoukidebeli
cvladi, warmodgenilia horizontalur RerZze, xolo, damokidebu­
li cvladi, vertikalur RerZze. X-is mniSvnelobebi ganlagebulia
X RerZze, xolo Y Y -is mniSvnelobebi _ Y Y RerZze. gavrcelebuli
gza mimarTebis gamosavlenad da interpretirebisaTvis, Y aris XY
wyvilebis moniSvna X da Y Y RerZebis gamoyenebiT (rogorc CarCoTi)
daskvnebis gamosatanad. davuSvaT, rom akademiuri miRwevebis kvl­
evaSi gvaqvs ori sazomi: X zomavs saaTebis raodenobas, romelsac
studenti uTmobs mecadineobas yoveldRiurad, xolo Y
zomavs karg Sefasebebs, romelTac studenti iRebs mocemul se­
mestrSi. cxra studentis hipoTeturi monacemebi, miRebuli ori
sazomiT, warmodgenilia cxrilSi 3.2 xolo gazomvis Sedegebi moniS­
nulia naxazze 3.2. naxazze 3.2 aRniSnulia mimarTeba mecadineobaSi
yoveldRiurad gatarebul saaTebsa (damoukidebeli cvladi) da karg
Sefasebebs (damokidebuli cvladi) Soris: maRali mniSvnelobebi X
RerZze dakavSirebulia maRal maCveneblebTan Y Y RerZze, saSualo
cxrili 3.2
mecadineobis saaTebis raodenoba yoveldRiurad da
kargi Sefasebebis raodenoba (hipoTeturi monacemebi)

mecadineobis saaTebi yoveldRiurad (X) kargi Sefasebebis raodenoba (Y)

8 5
7 5
6 4
5 3
4 2
4 1
3 1
2 0
1 2

 
 I nawili empiriuli kvlevebis safuZvlebi 103

mniSvnelobebi X RerZze _ saSualo mniSvnelobebTan Y RerZze, da­

bali mniSvnelobebi X RerZze _ dabal mniSvnelobebTan Y RerZze.
rodesac am gziT gamovsaxavT, damokidebuleba damoukidebelsa (X)
da damokidebul cvlads ( Y Y) Soris aRiniSneba terminiT `mniSvnelo­
baTa gaerTianebuli ganawileba~. wrfe, romelic gadis im wertile­
bze, romlebic warmoadgens mniSvnelobaTa wyvilebs, gamoxatavs
mimarTebis mimarTulebas. garda amisa, mkvlevars SeuZlia gamoiy­
enos informacia wrfis Sesaxeb (misi daxriloba da wyveta) imisaT­
vis, rom iwinaswarmetyvelos damokidebuli cvladis mniSvnelobebi
damoukidebeli cvladis mniSvnelobebis Sesabamisad (daxrilobisa
da wyvetis gamoTvlis meTodebi dawvrilebiT ixileT me-16 TavSi).
sxva sityvebiT rom vTqvaT, Tu iciT, rom wrfis daxriloba da im
wertilis mniSvneloba, sadac igi kveTs Y Y RerZs, SegiZliaT iwinas­
warmetyveloT dRis ganmavlobaSi mecadineobisaTvis ramdeni saaTis
daTmobaa saWiro, rom miviRoT maRali Sefasebebi.

naxazi 3.2

magnituda. mimarTebebi cvladebs Soris ar xasiaTdeba mxolod

mimarTulebiT. maT aseve axasiaTebT magnituda. mimarTebis magni­
tuda aris xarisxi, romliTac cvladebi kovarireben pozitiurad
104

an negatiurad. mimarTebis umaRlesi magnituda aris absoluturi

mimarTeba. Tu damokidebuleba or cvlads Soris absoluturia, erTi
an meti damoukidebeli cvladis mniSvneloba zustad gansazRvravs
damokidebuli cvladis mniSvnelobas. fizikis kanonebi, rogoricaa
2
E = mc (ainStainis fardobiTobis Teoria), TiTqmis absoluturi
mimarTebebia, ramdenadac Zalian mcire gamonakliss Tu vipoviT,
romelic wess ar eqvemdebareba. hipoTeturi magaliTi, romelic
warmodgenilia 3.1 cxrilSi gamosaxavs absolutur mimarTebas: ar
aris aRniSnuli gamonaklisebi, romelic ar daeqvemdebareboda wess,
rom swavlisaTvis daTmobili wlebis zrda ganapirobebs Semosav­
lobis zrdas.
meore ukiduresoba aris mimarTebis udablesi magnituda, nulo­
vani damokidebuleba. am SemTxvevaSi ar arsebobs sistematuri kova­
riacia damokidebuli da damoukidebeli cvladebis mniSvnelobebs
Soris. cvladebs Soris ar arsebobs mimarteba. isini ar arian erT­
maneTTan dakavSirebuli. cvlilebebi erTi cvladis mniSvnelobebSi
ver gamoiwvevs cvlilebebs meore cvladis mniSvnelobebSi.
mimarTebebi, romelTac socialur mecnierebebSi SeviswavliT,
iseve, rogorc sxva mecnierebebSi, magnitudis mixedviT ranJirebs
nulidan absoluturamde. mimarTeba ganaTlebasa da Semosavals So­
ris dadebiTia, magram ara absoluturi: individebs, romelTac maRa­
li ganaTleba aqvT, ufro metad eqnebaT maRali xelfasi, magram
arsebobs mravali gamonaklisic. mimarTeba ganaTlebasa da rasis­
tul prejudisebs Soris uaryofiTia, magram ara absoluturi: yvela
maRali ganaTlebis mqone piri ar gamoirCeva prejudisebisagan Ta­
visuflebiT da yoveli dabali ganaTlebis mqone pirs ver ganvixi­
lavT, rogorc prejudisebis mqones (magnitudis zusti sazomebi,
iseTi, rogoricaa korelaciis koeficienti, dawvrilebiT ganxilu­
lia me-16 da me-17 TavebSi).
ganvixileT ra sakvlevi problemis mTavari Semadgeneli nawile­
bi _ cvladebi da mimarTebebi, axla ukve SegviZlia mivubrundeT
hipoTezasa da mis Taviseburebebs.

hipoTeza
hipoTeza savaraudo pasuxia sakvlev problemaze da mkafiod
Camoyalibebuli damokidebulebiT gamoixateba damokidebulsa da
damoukidebel cvlads Soris. hipoTeza savaraudo pasuxebia imitom,
rom isini SeiZleba damtkicdes an uarvyoT mxolod mas Semdeg, rac
 I nawili empiriuli kvlevebis safuZvlebi 105

empiriulad Semowmdeba. rodesac mkvlevari hipoTezas SeimuSavebs,

jer ar icis, damtkicdeba Tu ara igi. hipoTeza jer Camoyalibdeba
da Semdeg mowmdeba. Tu igi uariyofa, mkvlevari wamoayenebs Semdeg
hipoTezas, romlis aRiarebis SemTxvevaSic, es ukanaskneli Seva mec­
nierul codnaSi.
mkvlevrebi hipoTezebs adgenen an deduqciurad _ Teoriebidan
gamomdinare, an induqciurad _ pirdapiri dakvirvebebis safuZvel­
ze, an intuiturad an am midgomebis kombinirebis gziT. wyaroebs,
romelTa safuZvelzec mkvlevrebi adgenen hipoTezebs, naklebi mniS­
vneloba aqvs imasTan SedarebiT, ra gziT iqnebian isini uaryofili
an piriqiT _ dadasturebuli. magaliTad, bevr mecniers sjera, rom
xidan Camovardnilma vaSlma miiyvana ser isaak niutoni (1642-1727)
Tavis hipoTezamde gravitaciis Sesaxeb.4 Tumca es epizodi, masSi
warmosaxvis rolis miuxedavad, ver miscemda uflebas mecniers dae­
Sva hipoTeza _ aRiareba movida mxolod mas Semdeg, rac hipoTeza
damtkicda empiriuli monacemebiT.
kvlevebis hipoTezebs aqvT oTxi saerTo Tviseba. es Tvisebebo
mkafio, specifikuri, eqvemdebareba empiriul Semowmebas xelmis­
awvdomi kvlevis meTodebiT da Tavisufalia Rirebulebebisagan. am
TvisebaTa ganxilva dagexmarebaT CamoayaliboT sakuTari hipoTe­
zebi da SeafasoT sxvaTa hipoTezebic.
1. hipoTezebi unda iyos mkafio. imisaTvis, rom hipoTeza em­
piriulad Seamowmos, mecnierma unda gansazRvros yvela cvla­di
hipoTezaSi. konceptualuri da operaciuli ganmartebebi, rogorc
es meore TavSi davinaxeT, exmareba mas, rom daazustos hipoTeza.
profesiul literaturasa da eqspertTa mosazrebebs aseve didi dax­
marebis gaweva SeuZliaT am saqmeSi. davuSvaT, Tqveni hipoTeza md­
gomareobs imaSi, rom gaucxoeba (damoukidebeli cvladi) uaryofiT
damokidebulebaSi politikur monawileobasTan (damokidebuli cv­
ladi). profesiuli literaturis gacnobisas aRmoaCenT, rogor
gansazRvres sxva mecnierebma cvladebi. am gansazRvrebebs Soris
ipoviT gamosadeg ganmartebebs. Tu ver ipoviT, yovelTvis SeZlebT
daeyrdnoT sxvaTa gamocdilebas sakuTari cvladebis gansazRvri­
sas im gziT, romelic ufro marTebuli iqneba Tqveni kvlevisaTvis.
nebismier SemTxvevaSi, operaciuli ganmartebebi unda iyos specifi­
kuri, amasTan, sakmarisad zusti saimisod, rom SesaZlebeli gaxdes
dakvirveba da replikacia.

4 John D.Piette, “Review Symposium, ‘Playing It Safe,’ “ Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law, 19 (2)
(1994):453.
106

2. hipoTezebi aris specifikuri. mkvlevarma unda miuTiTos

mosalodnel damokidebulebaze cvladebs Soris mimarTulebis ter­
minebSi (pozitiuri an negatiuri) da pirobebze, romelTa meSveo­
biTac damokidebulebas davinaxavT. hipoTeza, romelic ambobs, rom
X dakavSirebulia Y Y-Tan, Zalian zogadia. mimarTeba X-sa da Y Y -s So­
ris SeiZleba iyos pozitiuri an negatiuri. garda amisa, damokide­
buleba ar aris Tavisufali analizia erTeulze drois da, sivrcis
gavlenisagan. rogorc es adrec davinaxeT, gamovlenili damokideb­
uleba cvladebs Soris SesaZlebelia gaqres, rodesac analizis er­
Teuls vcvliT (magaliTad ekologiuri Secdoma). amdenad, damokide­
bulebebi vTqvaT, ganaTlebasa da politikur monawileobas Soris,
SeiZleba SeviswavloT individebis, jgufebis, saarCevno ubnebis
doneze. analizis es gansxvavebuli doneebi gansxvavebul koncep­
tualizaciasa da gansxvavebul operaciul ganmartebebs moiTxovs
Sesaswavli cvladebisaTvis.
hipoTezaSi aseve zustad unda iyos dadgenili pirobebi, romlis
mixedviTac SeiZleba davakvirdeT damokidebulebas. aq ukve Teo­
ria iZens gansakuTrebul mniSvnelobas gamokvlevadi da nayofieri
hipoTezebis generirebis kuTxiT.
3. hipoTezebis Semowmeba xdeba xelmisawvdomi meTodebiT. mkv­
levarma SeiZleba wamoayenos mkafio, Rirebulebebisagan Tavisufa­
li, specifikuri hipoTeza da aRmoaCinos, rom ar moepoveba kvlevis
meTodebi mis Sesamowmeblad. magaliTad, rogor unda SevamowmoT
hipoTeza, rom obieqti A A 3 duimiT grZelia, vidre obieqti ? , Tu
ar gveqneba santimetri? an rogor unda SevamowmoT hipoTeza, rom
mikrob C-s sekrecia dadebiT damokidebulebaSia daavadeba D-sTan,
Tu ar gveqneba instrumenti, romelis saSualebiTac gamovavlenT
mikrobs? an rogor SevamowmebT damokidebulebas ganaTlebasa da
politikur monawileobas Soris instrumentebis gareSe, romlebic
am cvladebze dakvirvebisaTvis aris saWiro?
am magaliTebis primitiuloba xazs usvams imas, rom mecnierebi
ver Seafaseben hipoTezas, Tu ar eqnebaT meTodebi maT Sesamowme­
blad. mecnierebis progresi swored kvlevis axali meTodebis dak­
virvebis, monacemTa Segrovebis, monacemTa analizis ganviTarebasa
da xelmisawvdomobazea maqsimalurad damokidebuli.
zogierTi socialuri mecnieri mcire mniSvnelobas aniWebs meTo­
debs imis SiSiT, rom maT tyveobaSi ar aRmoCndes. SesaZlebelia, rom
mkvlevari erTi meTodiT `iqnas Sepyrobili~ da dogmaturad iyeneb­
des mas imis miuxedavad, ras ikvlevs an rodesac misTvis meTodi
mizania da ara saSualeba. hipoTezebi, romelTa Sesamowmeblad ar
 I nawili empiriuli kvlevebis safuZvlebi 107

arsebobs meTodi, mainc SeiZleba Tavis adgils ikavebdes mecnierul

midgomaSi, Tu isini inovaciuria. maTi damtkiceba damokidebulia
Semowmebis SesaZleblobaze, romelic Tavis mxriv damokidebulia
kvlevis meTodebis xelmisawvdomobaze.
4. mecnieruli hipoTezebi Tavisufalia Rirebulebebisagan.
mkvlevaris sakuTari Rirebulebebis, midrekilebebis, subieqturi
damokidebulebebis adgili mecnierul midgomaSi ar aris. kvleva
socialur mecnierebebSi garkveuli xarisxiT socialuri aqtivobaa,
romlis problemebze gavlenas axdens garemo. amdenad mkvlevari
unda acnobierebdes sakuTar tendenciebs da xdides maT naTels,
ramdenadac es SesaZlebelia. rogorc gunar mirdali (1898-1987)
Tavis klasikur kvlevaSi rasobrivi mimarTebebis Sesaxeb, werda:

tendenciebis gandevna imisaTvis, rom gamovricxoT miker­

Zoeba, uimedo da umarTebulo avantiuraa. . . . social­
uri mecnierebebidan tendenciebis gamoricxvis aranairi
sxva saSualeba arsebobs, garda imisa, rom warmovadginoT
isini, rogorc zustad Camoyalibebuli, specifikuri da
sakmarisad konkretizebuli wanamZrvrebi Rirebulebisa .5

problema da hipoTeza: ramdenime magaliTi

problemebi ayenebs zogad sakiTxebs cvladebs Soris damokide­
bulebaTa Sesaxeb, hipoTezebi iZleva sacdel, konkretul da Semo­
wmebad pasuxebs. ramdenime magaliTiT mkafios gavxdiT gansxvavebas
problemasa da hipoTezas Soris, warmovadgenT, rogor xdeba hipo­
Tezebis ageba da gamoxatva.
sakvlevi sakiTxebis Semdegi magaliTebi warmoiSva ufro zogadi
problemidan, rogor unda xdebodes demokratiuli qveynis marTva:

vin marTavs amerikas?

ra iwvevs inflacias?
ratom uqmnis safrTxes demokratias biurokratia?
aRwevs Tu ara damtkicebis moqmedebis programebi Tavis mizans?
zrdis Tu ara skolis integracia ganaTlebis miRwevebs?
ra faqtorebi gansazRvravs urbanizacias?
ra iwvevs politikur Zaladobas?

5 Gunnar Myrdal, The American Dilemma (New York: Harper, 1994), p.1043.
108

kvlevis hipoTezebis Taviseburebebi

hipoTezebi unda iyos mkafio. mkvlevarma konceptualurad da

operaciulad unda ganmartos yvela cvladi.
hipoTezebi aris specifikuri. mkvlevari miuTiTebs mosalodnel
mimarTebebze cvladebs Soris mimarTulebis terminebSi
(pozitiuri an negatiuri) da pirobebze, romelTa meSveobiTac
SesaZlebelia davakvirdeT mimarTebas.
hipoTezebis Semowmeba SesaZlebelia meTodebiT. hipoTezis
Semowmeba damokidebulia Sesamowmebeli meTodis arsebobaze.
samecniero hipoTezebi Taviseufalia Rirebulebebisagan.
ramdenadac kvleva socialur mecnierebebSi mimdinareobs
socialur garemoSi, mkvlevari unda acnobierebdes sakuTar
tendenciebs da maT imdenad naTels xdides, ramdenadac es
SesaZlebelia.

kvlevis procesi moiTxovs, rom mecnierma moaxdinos aseTi zo­

gadi sakiTxebis gardaqmna hipoTezebad, savaraudo pasuxebad, imis­
aTvis, rom SesaZlebeli iyos maTi kvleva. magaliTad, ted gurma wa­
moayena Semdegi hipoTezebi, rogorc sacdeli pasuxebi politikuri
Zaladobis sakiTxze:6

jgufuri Zaladobis potenciali izrdeba, rodesac izrdeba

jgufis wevrebSi fardobiTi deprivaciis intensivoba da
moculoba.
politikuri Zaladobis potenciali varirebs (icvleba)
politikur ZaladobasTan dakavSirebiT normatiuli mtkicebebis
(mtkicebebi, romlebic momdinareobs moraluri standartebidan)
intensivobasa da moculobasTan erTad jgufis wevrebSi;
specifikuri politikuri Zaladobis potenciali varirebs
(icvleba) zogadad jgufis Zaladobis potencialTan erTad.
politikuri Zaladobis magnituda Zlier varirebs (icvleba)
politikuri Zaladobis potencialTan erTad.

6. Ted R.Gurr, Why Men Rebel ( Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1970), pp.360-367
 I nawili empiriuli kvlevebis safuZvlebi 109

hipoTezis Camoyalibebis kidev erTi magaliTi aviReT urbaniza­

ciis mizezebis Sesaxeb jibsisa da martinis cnobili kvlevidan.7 av­
torebma Camoayalibes Semdegi hipoTezebi:

urbanizaciis xarisxi sazogadoebaSi pirdapir varirebs

(icvleba) moxmarebis obieqtebis dispersiasTan (ganawileba
farTo fizikur arealze) erTad.
urbanizaciis xarisxi sazogadoebaSi pirdapir varirebs
(icvleba) Sromis ganawilebasTan erTad. Sromis ganawileba
sazogadoebaSi pirdapir varirebs moxmarebis obieqtebis
dispersiasTan erTad.
urbanizaciis xarisxi szogadoebaSi pirdapir varirebs (icvleba)
teqnologiur ganviTarebasTan erTad.
teqnologiuri ganviTareba sazogadoebaSi pirdapir varirebs
(icvleba) moxmarebis obieqtebis dispersiasTan erTad.

jerald heijis mcdeloba, moexdina Teoriisa da kvlevis sin­

Tezi deduqciurad wamoyenebuli hipoTezis saukeTeso magaliTia.8
heijma maqs veberis biurokratiis Teoriis ramdenime sakvanZo idea
cvladebad gardaqmna. magaliTad, heijma `avtoritetis ierarqiis~
cneba aqcia cvladad `organizaciis centralizaciis xarisxi~, xolo
`wesebisa da procedurebis~ cneba gadaiyvana cvladSi `formaliza­
ciis xarisxi~ (ramdenad aris TiToeul saqmesTan dakavSirebuli
qceva kodirebuli wesebsa da brZanebebSi). aman saSualeba misca mas
Camoeyalibebina sami mTavari hipoTeza:

rac ufro maRalia centralizacia organizaciebSi, miT ufro

maRalia mwarmoebluroba da piriqiT.
rac ufro maRali centralizaciis xarisxi, miT ufro maRalia
efeqturoba da piriqiT.
rac ufro maRalia centralizaciis xarisxi, miT ufro maRalia
formalizacia da piriqiT.

7. Jack P.Gibbs and Walter T.Martin, “ Urbanization, Technology, and the Division of Labor: International Pat-
terns,” in Urbanism, Urbanization and Change, ed. Paul Meadows and Ephraim H.Mizruchi, 2 d ed. ( Read-
ing, Mass.:Addison-Wesley,1976), pp. 132-145.
8. Gerald Hage, Theories of Organizations : Forms, Process, and Transformation ( New York: Wiley-Inter-
science, 1980), pp.36-40.