Professional Documents
Culture Documents
CFA Level II Mock Exam 2 - Questions (PM)
CFA Level II Mock Exam 2 - Questions (PM)
FinQuiz.com
CFA Level II Mock Exam 2
June, 2016
Revision 1
“According to our firm’s policy, nondiscretionary pension accounts and personal trust
accounts have a lower priority on purchase and sale recommendations than discretionary
pension fund accounts. This is why returns have been slightly lower for such accounts.”
After the meeting, Wiley proceeded with an analysis of the stocks of two utility firms for
inclusion in his private wealth portfolios. After proper due diligence of each investment,
Wiley e-mailed the recommendation to all his clients for which the investment was
suitable. He then called two of his largest clients to discuss the recommendation in detail.
Wiley is also following The RedNeck Products (RNP), a firm in the electronics industry.
Wiley believes that a bond offered by RNP is suitable for five of his clients. Two of his
clients wish to purchase $40,000 each, and the other three request to purchase $10,000
each. The minimum lot size is established at $5,000 and it is believed that odd-lot
allocations below the minimum would affect the liquidity of the security. Wiley receives
only $65,000 for all the five accounts. He allocates $25,000 each to the first two
accounts, and $5,000 each to the remaining three accounts.
Wiley has been assigned responsibility for managing the accounts of two additional
private wealth clients. As a first step, Wiley developed each client’s investment policy
statement (IPS). After six months, Wiley reviewed the IPS of each client. He made the
following additions to the IPS:
Client A: The client has received $80,000 as inheritance from his grandfather.
Client B: The client’s brother passed away, and she is now responsible for taking
care of his only child. As such, her income needs have increased, and the
IPS provides for liquid investments only.
After reviewing the IPSs, Wiley increased the proportion of stock investments in client
A’s account. Realizing that client B needs greater growth in its portfolio due to the
emergence of a dependent, Wiley shortlisted a venture capital fund for her portfolio.
After extensive analysis, Wiley strongly believed that the fund would increase the
portfolio’s value up by 25% in just three years. He just invests 4% in this fund, investing
96% of the portfolio in highly liquid securities.
After his work for the day was over, Wiley met with one of his clients, Laura Winston,
who is also a portfolio manager at a reputable firm. During their conversation, Winston
told Wiley that she was leaving her current employer to open up her own investment
management firm. She stated that to minimize any conflicts of interest, she was not going
to solicit any current clients of her employers until she has left the firm. She added that
she was not going to take any of her employer’s property at departure, except the models
she developed on her own personal laptop.
As the conversation continued, Wiley told Winston that he was going to California with
his wife for the weekend. He added that the trip was paid for by one of his clients; the
client had gifted him two tickets to California for achieving above-average returns on his
portfolio.
1. With regards to the trade in APM’s stock, has Wiley violated the CFA Institute
Standards of Professional Conduct?
A. Yes.
B. No, because he managed to increase the value of the fund for its
beneficiaries.
C. No, because he protected the beneficiaries by warding off the takeover
attempt.
2. Is the firm’s policy regarding pension accounts, and Wiley’s actions regarding his
recommendation most likely in accordance with the CFA Institute Standards of
Professional Conduct?
A. No.
B. Only with regards to the pension accounts policy.
C. Only with regards to Wiley’s treatment of the recommendation.
3. With respect to his allocation of the bond issued by RNP to his clients’ accounts,
has Wiley most likely violated the CFA Institute Standards of Professional
Conduct?
A. No.
B. Yes, because he offered preferential treatment to the two larger clients at
the expense of the three smaller clients.
C. Yes, because he failed to communicate his allocation policy to his clients
before allocating the security.
4. Are Wiley’s portfolio modifications for Client A and Client B most likely correct?
A. Yes.
B. Only with respect to Client A.
C. Only with respect to Client B.
5. Has Winston most likely violated Standard IV, Duties to Employers, of the CFA
Institute Standards of Professional Conduct?
A. Yes.
B. No, because she did not solicit any of her employer’s clients.
C. No, because she did not solicit any of her employer’s clients, and did not
take with her any of her employer’s property before leaving.
6. With regards to his trip to California, has Wiley most likely violated any
Standards?
A. Yes.
B. No, as long as he discloses, in writing, this compensation arrangement to
his employer.
C. No, as long as the trip is of short duration and does not affect his duties at
the firm.
For his current assignment, Solanki is working alongside Carla Rogers, the chief
investment officer of Motano Enterprises’ (ME) investment account. Solanki provides
ME with access to research reports, prepared by him, covering global fixed-income
markets.
Rogers has decided to expand ME’s investment account to include four sovereign
emerging market bond issues. The company’s investment account is presently invested in
developed market equities and bonds. Prior to offering any advice, Solanki believes it is
necessary to evaluate the sustainability of the debt issued in the four emerging market
countries identified by Rogers.
Solanki decides to employ simulation to evaluate the riskiness of the emerging markets.
When asked why he prefers simulation over other techniques, Solanki provides the
following reasons:
Reason 2: Given the unpredictable nature of emerging markets, simulations are best
suited when confronted with new and unpredictable risks.
Solanki then proceeds to initiate the simulation process. He identifies five input variables
– inflation, global (US) and local (emerging market) interest rates, foreign exchange
rates, and debt service costs. Using these variables Solanki aims to determine the impact
of a currency crisis, in each of the four markets, on the value of debt issues and project
their likelihood of default.
Solanki proceeds to run the simulation using the input variables and suitable probability
distributions. He summarizes the simulated expected values and standard deviations in
values for the four issues in an exhibit (Exhibit). He has employed local risk-free rate to
calculate expected values for the issues.
Solanki recommends Rogers invest in bond issue A and supports his advice with the
following statement, “Out of the two lowest priced issues, A and C, the former has the
lowest variation in simulated values making it the most suitable investment choice. A low
simulated standard deviation in value means that the issue will have the lowest marginal
risk.”
Constraint 1: The value of reserves available to pay down debt should not be allowed to
decline below a minimum level, as specified by loan covenants. Should
reserves decline below this level, the government will be denied further
loans on favorable terms.
Constraint 2: Indirect bankruptcy costs can be built into the valuation of each issue by
comparing the total value of available resources for repaying debt to
outstanding claims in all scenarios. This will assist in measuring and
modeling the costs of not meeting debt payments.
A. Reason 1
B. Reason 2
C. Neither of the two reasons.
8. In context of the issues surrounding the emerging markets being studied, the most
suitable probability distribution should rely on:
A. historical data.
B. cross-sectional data.
C. statistical distributions and parameters.
9. Based on the steps followed, has Solanki correctly performed the simulations?
A. Yes.
B. No, he has failed to check for correlations across variables.
C. No, some of the variables he has considered may not be predictable.
10. Considering the data in Exhibit 1, Solanki is most likely treating the simulation
process as a:
12. The constraints being employed by Solanki are most likely, respectively, classified
as:
constraint 1: constraint 2:
A. book value market value.
B. earnings and cash flow market value.
C. earnings and cash flow earnings and cash flow.
Lakeline Associates is an audit firm. Senior auditor Kim Thomas and junior auditor
Gayle Cox are analyzing the financial statements of four corporations operating in
distinct industries. The auditors’ focus is on disclosures to the company’s financial
statements. Based on their analysis, the auditors make four observations with respect to
the information disclosed in the financial statements.
Observation 1: The management of Borough Limited, an oil extractor, has been forced to
revise output prices downwards in response to an unexpected drop in
global oil prices. Weary of being unable to reach its annual operating
earnings target, the management has revised the corporate credit sales
policy at the beginning of the current fiscal year (2014). Under the new
policy customers will enjoy higher purchase discounts with a right to
return current year purchases at the beginning of the following year.
Observation 2: On June 1, 2012 Streak Corp acquired Manson Inc. by issuing 300,000 of
its common stock, which were trading at a market price per share of $50.
On the date of acquisition Manson Inc. had 250,000 shares outstanding
trading at a market price of $45 per share. The fair value of Manson
Inc.’s net assets at the time of acquisition was $1.1 million. The goodwill
associated with the purchase is now believed to be overstated due to an
understatement of the identifiable assets at that time. No impairment
charges have been recorded since the date of acquisition and this is
expected to remain the case for the future periods.
Exhibit:
Cash Flows Statement and Net Income Information for
Aerial Limited (2012-2014) in $ Millions
2014 2013 2012
Operating cash flow 45.0 30.3 18.2
Investing cash flow 22.0 15.8 7.0
Financing cash flow 14.8 11.1 9.8
Net income 21.5 16.4 12.5
Operating cash flow variability relative to peers Low Low Low
In a recent conversation with Aerial Limited’s chief executive, Thomas concludes that
the firm’s operating cash flows are of poor quality.
Observation 4: The management of Grace Manufacturers has switched from the LIFO to
FIFO method of inventory accounting. This shift represents a response to
an unanticipated increase in the global price of a key input component.
In a discussion between the two individuals, Cox shares with Thomas that while the audit
opinion is used as a source of information about a company’s risk, it can never be a
financial analyst’s first source of information.
13. A probable impact of the new sales policy (Observation 1) is that Borough
Limited’s:
14. Using the information in Observation 2 and ignoring the impact of the
overstatement, the amount of goodwill reported on Streak Corp’s financial
statements on the date of acquisition is closest to:
A. $0.25 million.
B. $3.75 million.
C. $4.00 million.
15. Based on the misreporting on the date of acquisition, Streak Corp’s consolidated
earnings will most likely be distorted in the:
16. Which of the following reasons may justify poor cash flow quality?
17. The impact of the policy change (Observation 4) will most likely lead to Aerial
Limited’s financial statements:
18. Based on Thomas’s view, audit opinions will least likely be the first source of
information about a company’s risk because they:
Equity Planners (EQUIP) is an equity management firm run by a group of ten portfolio
managers, each specializing in a specific sector of the equity market. Due to above-
average returns earned by EQUIP on several invested funds, the firm has managed to
establish a firm standing in the financial community. EQUIP now offers professional
advice to prospective clients even if they do not wish to invest with the firm. Rebecca
Lee is one of the founding portfolio managers at EQUIP. Lee has long used residual
income models in the formulation of appropriate investment strategies. She is now
contemplating the application of momentum indicators to discover possible profitable
trading opportunities. To enhance her understanding of their application, Lee read an
article on ‘Momentum Valuation Indicators’, written by Don Levy, a statistical analyst.
The article made the following comments:
1. Earnings surprise is a valuation indicator that reflects the unexpected earnings over a
given time period. When used directly, earnings surprise is often scaled by a measure
reflecting the variability or range in analysts’ EPS estimates. This is referred to as the
standardized unexpected earnings (SUE).
2. The moving average oscillator or the trading-range break are examples of indicators
that are prone to data snooping and hindsight biases.
Lee decided to gather the earnings surprise history for HotSpot Inc. (HTSP). She
assembled information about the earnings surprise as a percentage of the consensus EPS
forecast, and the values of the standardized unexpected earnings for the past 10 quarters.
After reviewing the data, Lee formulated the following conclusions:
Conclusion 1: The percentage earnings surprise for the quarter ending March 2008 was
significantly negative. This shows that the company had worse results than
anticipated, resulting in an actual EPS that was lower than the consensus
forecast, i.e., a negative earnings surprise.
Conclusion 2: The SUE score for the quarter ending June 2009 was positive. This
indicates that the company outperformed analysts’ expectations.
Lee is assessing the stock of Cold Rocks Company Ltd. (CRC) for inclusion in EQUIP’s
newly introduced equity fund. CRC is a small company with total assets of $5 million
financed with 60% debt at a cost of 8.5%. Even though the company is small in terms of
market capitalization, it managed to earn a return on invested capital of 13% in the most
recent year. The company is taxed at a rate of 25% and has a cost of equity of 11%. After
calculating CRC’s residual income, Lee proceeded with estimating the firm’s enterprise
value added. While reviewing the firm’s financial statements, Lee decided to make
adjustments for the following items:
Item 1: CRC reports research and development costs in the current year. These costs are
expensed in the period in which they are incurred.
Item 2: The company reports deferred tax assets in excess of deferred tax liabilities.
When preparing her proposal, Lee made the following comment in the report:
As the last assignment of the day, Lee is forecasting the residual income, for the year
ending 2011, of Zephyr Enterprises (ZEPH). Exhibit 1 displays some information
relevant to the analysis.
Exhibit 1
Zephyr Enterprises
Book value per share as of 31 December 2010 $15.68
Earnings estimate for 2011 $3.56
Earnings estimate for 2012 $4.50
Dividends per share forecast for 2011 $1.20
Dividends per share forecast for 2012 $1.35
Required return on equity 10%
A. Comment 1 only.
B. Comment 2 only.
C. both comments 1 and 2.
A. Conclusion 1 only.
B. Conclusion 2 only.
C. both conclusions 1 and 2.
21. The residual income for CRC for the most recent year is closest to:
A. $238,750.
B. $251,165.
C. $331,250.
22. Considering each adjustment in isolation, how will adjustments for the items
presented for CRC affect its economic value added?
A. Adjustment for item 1 will increase EVA, and adjustments for items 2 and
3 will have no effect.
B. Adjustment for item 1 will increase EVA, and adjustments for items 2 and
3 will decrease EVA.
C. Adjustment for items 1 and 2 will increase calculated EVA, but
adjustment for item 3 will have no effect.
23. Lee’s comment in her proposal contrasting the DDM and RI models is most
likely:
A. correct.
B. incorrect, because they will yield equivalent results.
C. incorrect, because the value produced by the dividend discount model can
be higher or lower.
24. Based on the information provided in Exhibit 1, the per-share residual income for
the year ending 2012 is closest to:
A. $1.992/share.
B. $2.381/share.
C. $2.696/share.
Vincent Oswald, a stock analyst and earnings forecaster, has been asked by his supervisor
to revise the valuation estimates of two firms: Lenora Products Ltd. and Finesse Products
Incorporated. Lenora Products has a current book value per share of $22.89 and a current
market price per share of $120.09. Oswald expects long-term growth to be 9.0% and
long-term return on equity to be 29%. The cost of equity for the firm is 12%. Oswald
plans to use the single-stage RI model for valuation purposes.
Finesse Products operates in an industry that is characterized with high profit margins
and above-average growth. For these reasons, Oswald expects new firms to enter the
industry and erode the firm’s current market leadership position. He deems it appropriate
to estimate value under the following two scenarios:
Scenario 1: If competitors enter the industry slowly, the firm’s ROE will decline
gradually towards the required return. In this case, the persistence
parameter would equal 0.80.
Scenario 2: If competition rises more quickly, the firm’s ROE will decay faster and
the persistence parameter would equal 0.4.
Oswald’s forecast horizon is 15 years. He expects earnings per share at the end of the
horizon to be $34.56 and ending and beginning book value to equal $89.05 and 68.15
respectively. The required return on equity is 13% and long-term growth is expected to
be 8%.
When presenting his estimates to his supervisor, Oswald posed the following question:
“If market value added is presented as a ratio, will it be equivalent to the Tobin’s q?”
Oswald has also been asked to value Privico Manufacturing, a private company that is
being acquired by Publico Manufacturing, a large public firm considering expansion in
its industry. After an analysis of guideline public companies, Oswald generated the
estimates displayed in Exhibits 1 and 2.
Exhibit 1
Privico Manufacturing
Equity risk premium 7.5%
Risk-free rate 5.6%
Small stock premium 3.5%
Beta 1.54
Industry risk premium 4.0%
Company-specific premium 1.5%
Current debt to total capital 5%
Optimal debt to total capital 12%
Tax rate 35%
Cost of debt 8.5%
Exhibit 2
Publico Manufacturing
Beta 1.12
Cost of debt 7.0%
Ratio of debt to total capital 30%
While talking to his friend, Audrey Jonas, about it, Oswald stated:
“Even though the build-up method makes no beta adjustment, the required rate of return
of Privico calculated using the method is exactly equivalent to the rate of return
calculated using the expanded CAPM.”
“For valuation concerning the possible sale of Privico, if we use the CAPM to determine
cost of equity, what will be the appropriate estimate of the firm’s WACC?”
Jonas decides to use the guideline public company method to develop a value estimate of
Privico. Oswald stated that, unlike the method Jonas selected, the use of other market
approach methods of private company valuation would not require an estimate of a
control premium. Jonas agreed, and stated that a control premium is most uncertain when
derived from transactions involving the exchange of stock or from transactions that
occurred at a date significantly before the valuation date.
25. With regards to Oswald’s estimate of the intrinsic value of Lenora Product’s
stock, the stock is most likely:
A. fairly valued.
B. overvalued.
C. undervalued.
26. Relative to scenario 2, Finesse stock’s terminal value under scenario 1 will most
likely be:
A. 88.90% higher.
B. 121.20% higher.
C. 135.40% higher.
A. yes.
B. no, because if inflation has been high over the years, the estimate under
Tobin’s q would be lower.
C. no, because if total assets remain constant, but liabilities increase at a high
rate, the estimate under Tobin’s q would be lower.
28. With respect to his comment about the required rate of return of Privico, Oswald
is most likely:
29. The best response to Jonas’s question is that the WACC will be closest to:
A. 13.662%.
B. 15.755%.
C. 16.569%.
30. With regards to the control premium, are Oswald and Jonas correct?
Walnut Brothers Inc. (WBI) is an asset management firm that operates in the alternative
investments sector of the capital market. Stephanie Blanchet is the chief financial analyst
at WBI, and is responsible for the management of the WBI Real Estate Fund, a fund that
invests exclusively in the private real estate market. Josh Freeze, a real estate research
analyst, is part of the team that manages the fund. Freeze is worried about the fund’s
investment in commercial real estate located in an emerging economy. At the time the
fund invested in the property, it was still in its developmental stages and the market was
strong and rents were high. But since then, the market has weakened and interest rates
have increased significantly. In addition, due to high vacancy rates and low rents in the
region, new construction is not feasible. When Freeze discussed this changed scenario
with Blanchet, Blanchet stated that this increased the risk of their investment
considerably. She decided to value the investment using the sales comparison approach to
determine the loss that had been incurred on the investment.
Exhibit 1
Sales Comparison Data for the Property
Variable Property Sales Comp 1 Sales Comp 2 Sales Comp 3
Age (years) 15 10 20 25
Condition Good Average Excellent Good
Location Secondary Prime Secondary Prime
Size (square feet) 20,000
Sales price psf $600 $500 $535
Exhibit 2
Adjustments
Adjustments Sales Comp 1 Sales Comp 2 Sales Comp 3
Age (years) –10% 10% 15%
Condition 15% –15% 0%
Location –10% 0% –10%
Although the fund invests exclusively in private real estate, Blanchet is now
contemplating the addition of publicly traded real estate securities to the fund. After a
thorough analysis, Blanchet shortlisted an apartment equity REIT for investment
purposes. She instructed Freeze to obtain a net asset value estimate of the REIT based on
the REIT’s financials. Exhibit 3 displays the information she provided to Freeze for this
purpose.
Exhibit 3
Net Asset Value Estimate (in thousands)
Pro forma cash NOI for last 12 months $345,349
Assumed cap rate 8.00%
Next 12 months growth in NOI 2.00%
Cash and equivalents $85,039
Land held for future development $56,000
Goodwill $35,000
Deferred taxes $62,193
Other liabilities $145,555
Shares outstanding 65,430
When Freeze presented his estimate of the NAVPS to Blanchet, she stated the following
trading strategies that used this measure as an input:
Strategy 2: “If all REITs are trading below NAV, then an investor can benefit by
selling the REIT trading at the smallest discount to NAV.”
To confirm the valuation of the REIT, Blanchet decided to use the discounted cash flow
approach to obtain another value estimate. She knew that the REIT distributed a
significant portion of its income to investors and reinvested the free cash flow, hence, the
DCF approach was appropriate. When Freeze inquired about the estimation methodology,
Blanchet stated that estimating the long-term growth rate of the REIT is one of the major
challenges in accurately measuring the intrinsic value. She stated that a number of factors
affected the growth rate of the REIT including:
31. WBI Real Estate Fund’s investment in commercial real estate is most likely
subject to:
A. long lead time risk, cost of capital risk and unexpected inflation risk.
B. long lead time risk and cost of capital risk but not inflation risk because
real estate values are positively affected by inflation.
C. changing business conditions risk and long lead time risk but not cost of
capital risk because easy access to debt capital will increase real estate
prices.
32. With regards to using the sales comparison approach to valuing the commercial
real estate, Blanchet is most likely:
A. correct.
B. incorrect, because the replacement cost approach would be more reliable.
C. incorrect, because the income approach to valuation would be more
reliable.
33. Based on Exhibits 1 and 2, the estimated value of the property using the sales
comparison approach is closest to:
A. $10,143,333.
B. $10,711,667.
C. $11,500,000.
34. The net asset value per share of the apartment equity REIT is closest to:
A. $66.013.
B. $66.812.
C. $67.227.
A. Strategy 1 only.
B. Strategy 2 only.
C. both strategies 1 and 2.
36. Which of the factors mentioned by Blanchet will most likely affect the estimate of
long-term growth in a dividend discount model?
A. Factor 1 only
B. Factors 1 and 3 only
C. Factors 1, 2, and 3
Keith Welch was just hired by Red-Salt Investments (RESA), a firm that invests in the
four major quadrants of the real estate market: private equity, public equity, private debt
and public debt. Welch has been assigned the position of senior analyst at the firm, and is
responsible for the analysis of all four quadrants of the real estate market. Currently,
Welch is evaluating the performance of international commercial real estate REITs.
Welch focused his analysis on a specific sub-sector of an emerging economy’s real estate
market. He noticed several characteristic activities in the market, including:
After his evaluation, Welch met with the board of WaterSky Enterprises (WASKY), one
of RESA’s prospective clients. When discussing publicly traded real estate markets and
their potential growth, Welch presented the board of WALE with information about U.S.
based Residential Equity REIT Incorporated. Exhibit 1 displays this information.
Exhibit 1
Residential Equity REIT incorporated (values in $ thousands)
Gross rental revenue 650,385
Other operating costs 234,309
Depreciation expense 102,500
General and Administrative expenses 85,399
Interest expense 75,450
Non-cash rent 31,675
Leasing commissions 25,000
Adjusted funds from operations 123,052
AFFO per share 2.46
During the meeting, the CEO of the board inquired about how the P/FFO and P/AFFO
multiples could be used as a basis for valuation of REITs and REOCs. While explaining,
Welch made the following comments:
Statement 1: “Neither FFO nor AFFO based multiples take into account differences in
leverage among REITs. Hence, their use in relative value analysis should
be used in conjunction with adjustment for leverage levels.”
Statement 2: “Land does not produce income and hence, does not contribute to FFO or
AFFO. For this reason, land held for development does not affect the
value of FFO or AFFO based multiples.”
To further explain relative value analysis based on FFO and AFFO multiples, Welch
displayed information about two equity REITs. Exhibit 3 displays this information.
Exhibit 3
Return on
AFFO Payout Est. annual
P/NAV P/AFFO reinvested
Ratio AFFO growth
cash flow
REIT A 102% 13.5x 85% 5.5% 8.0%
REIT B 98% 14.0x 45% 6.5% 8.0%
Welch then stated the factors that positively affected FFO based multiples, including:
37. Assuming appraisers are using the NAV approach to valuation, which of the
activities in the real estate market that Welch was analyzing are least consistent
with each other?
A. Activities 1 and 2
B. Activities 2 and 3
C. Activities 1, 2 and 3
38. Based on the information in Exhibit 1, the REIT’s funds from operations per share
is closest to:
A. $3.05.
B. $5.10.
C. $7.15.
39. Based on Exhibit 1, the capital expenditure needed to keep the underlying
properties operating smoothly is closest to:
A. $75,500,000.
B. $150,950,000.
C. $178,000,000.
A. Statement 1 only.
B. Statement 2 only.
C. both statements 1 and 2.
41. All else equal, using the information in Exhibit 3, which of the following REITs is
most attractively priced?
A. REIT A
B. REIT B because it is trading at a discount to NAV
C. REIT B because it is trading at a discount to NAV and has a higher growth
in AFFO
42. With respect to the factors affecting the P/FFO multiple, Welch is most accurate
with respect to:
A. Factor 1 only.
B. factors 1 and 3 only.
C. factors 1, 2 and 3.
Peter de Silva is a fixed income trader at North Traders, a broker-dealer firm situated in
the United Kingdom. While de Silva has always been aware of the importance of the
arbitrage-free process in valuing fixed-income securities, he has never applied the
approach in practice. To learn more about the technique, he engages in a discussion with
his colleague, Kim Young. During their discussion Young makes the following
comments:
Comment 2: The arbitrage-free valuation framework is based on the notion that two
otherwise identical assets must trade at prices which represents fair value in
their respective markets.
Comment 3: The arbitrage-free valuation free approach, which involves discounting cash
flows using individual spot rates, is restrictive in the sense that the process
cannot be applied to a category of fixed-income securities.
The trader concludes the discussion by inquiring about the conditions, which create the
potential for arbitrage opportunities.
De Silva proceeds to practically apply the techniques learned. He selects three corporate
bonds issued by ARC Manufacturing, a global conglomerate. All three issues mature at
par, are mispriced, trade on the LSE, and differ with respect to credit rating. De Silva has
collected relevant details with respect to the three issues and aims to explore potential
arbitrage opportunities (Exhibit 1).
Next, De Silva would like to explore how interest rate volatility affects the valuation of
fixed-rate option-free bonds. For his analysis the trader selects a four-year, 10%, annual
coupon-paying bond issued by Dutch Inc. He proceeds to calibrate a binomial interest
rate tree (Exhibit 2), which corresponds to the benchmark yield curve. He is particularly
interested in deriving the value of the bond if interest rates follow the designated path:
Dutch Inc. has actively traded mortgage-backed securities. De Silva is exploring which
valuation technique will be most appropriate for this security category.
Exhibit 1:
Option-free Corporate Bonds Issued by ARCManufacturing
Credit rating A-rated BB-rated B-rated
Price per 100 par (£)* 99.050 97.145 94.145
Maturity (years) 5 5 5
Coupon (%) 6.0 6.5 7.0
Yield-to-maturity (%) 6.3 7.2 8.1
*Represents current market price
Exhibit 2:
Calibrated Binomial Interest Rate Tree to Match Benchmark Yield Curve
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
1.000% 5.639% 7.546% 9.734%
4.616% 6.178% 7.211%
5.058% 5.904%
4.373%
43. Considering her first two statements, Young is most accurate with regards to:
A. Statement 1 only.
B. Statement 2 only.
C. neither Statement 1 nor Statement 2.
44. In the context of Statement 3, spot rate discounting is ‘restrictive’ because the
technique cannot be used to value:
A. corporate bonds.
B. zero-coupon securities.
C. bonds with embedded options.
46. Using the data in Exhibit 1, which of the following bonds will maximize arbitrage
profits?
A. A-rated
B. BB-rated
C. B-rated
47. Using Exhibit 3 and information on the Dutch Inc issue, the present value of the
security along the designated path is equal to (in £ per 100 of par value):
A. 90.568.
B. 109.855.
C. 118.668.
48. The most suitable technique for valuing mortgage-backed securities is:
A. pathwise valuation.
B. Monte Carlo simulation.
C. binomial interest rate tree.
Lyon & Claire (LC) is a portfolio management firm with a specialized fixed-income
department. Based on past in-house analyst forecasts, LC has always preferred callable
bonds to other option embedded bond for its client investment portfolios.
The exhibit below provides details of three callable bond issues currently managed by its
fixed income portfolio managers (Exhibit 1). The bonds are identical with respect to
maturity, credit rating, and are redeemable at par. A 15% volatility assumption is used for
the analysis.
Exhibit 1:
Callable Bond Issues in LC’s Investment Portfolio
Annual Z-spread OAS
Coupon Current (basis (basis
Issuer Rate Price First Call Date points) points)
Sans Inc 5.1% 103.00 One month from today 56 25
Harp Limited 4.2% 102.03 Two years from today 65 35
Belle-Monte 6.5% 103.98 Three years from today 69 34
Ali Mehmet is LC’s fixed income analyst. He has made the following two forecasts with
respect to interest rates and changes in the yield curve.
Forecast 1: Interest rates will decline from their current level to 4.9%
Forecast 2: With the decline in interest rates the yield curve will invert.
Mehmet is seeking to expand the firm’s portfolio by including putable bonds. The issue
being evaluating is a four-year, 5.3% annual coupon-paying bond. He is comparing
various duration measures reported for the bond. The exhibit below summarizes the
results of his analysis (Exhibit 2).
Exhibit 2:
Analysis of Putable Bond Issue
Current value of bond 98.50
Effective duration 3.1
One-sided up duration if interests rates
increase by 50 basis points 1.6
Mehmet concludes his analysis by comparing the impact of Forecast 1 on the bonds
under evaluation. He arrives at the following conclusions:
Conclusion 1: The effective duration of the putable bond issue will exceed that reported
for the underlying option-free bond.
Conclusion 2: For a further 1% decline in rates callable bonds will have a relatively lower
price appreciation potential.
49. LC’s preference for callable bonds in its investment portfolio reflects a forecast
whereby interest rates are expected to:
A. rise.
B. decline.
C. remain relatively constant.
50. Using the information in Exhibit 1, which of the following bond issues will report
the highest OAS at zero volatility?
A. Sans Inc.
B. Harp Limited
C. Belle-Monte
51. Considering Forecast 1 and the information in Exhibit 1, the security with the
lowest price appreciation potential will be:
A. Sans Inc.
B. Harp Limited.
C. Belle-Monte.
52. Which of the following observations is most likely consistent with Forecast 2
(using the information in Exhibit 1)? There is an increased likelihood that the
issues will:
53. Based on the information in Exhibit 2, relative to the one-sided up duration, the
one-sided down duration will indicate that the price sensitivity of the putable bond
to interest rate changes is:
A. lower.
B. higher.
C. the same in absolute terms only.
A. 1 only.
B. 2 only.
C. 1 and 2.
Linda Harris is a portfolio manager at South Solutions (SS), a wealth management firm,
which caters to individual and institutional clients. Freight Foundation is Harris’s newest
client. Harris is selecting fixed-income and equity securities to include in the portfolio.
The exhibit below summarizes details of the fixed-income investments being considered
for FF’s portfolio (Exhibit 1).
Scott Trance is a junior portfolio manager who has recently joined SS. Trance is working
alongside Harris and is assisting her in the evaluation of the potential securities. Upon a
careful study of the data presented in Exhibit 1, Harris makes the following statements:
Statement 1: “Assuming the bond issues are comparable, risk-neutral investors would
expect the yield on a 12-year default-free bond to equal 7.00%.”
Statement 2: “If I were to construct a portfolio solely comprising of the two corporate
issues, I can be reasonably assured that the portfolio will be well-
diversified across industrial sectors, maturities, and investment grades.
Investors opting to invest in this portfolio can minimize their exposure to
market risk.”
Next, Harris combines the fixed-income data collected with economic growth forecasts.
Based on the current slope of the yield curve, she learns that economic analysts have
forecasted that a recession is highly anticipated. She would like to determine what this
implies for business credit demand and expected inflation.
Harris then moves on to evaluate potential equity securities for FF’s portfolio.
Information concerning these securities is outlined in the exhibit below (Exhibit 2).
Harris concludes her analysis by extending the recessionary forecast to the identified
equity securities. She anticipates that a recession will lead to a decline in the P/E ratios of
the identified stocks.
Statement 1: Statement 2:
A. Yes No
B. No Yes
C. Yes Yes
56. Which of the following factors most likely supports the economic forecast?
57. In light of the economic forecast, when allocating the fixed-income securities
(Exhibit 1) to FF’s portfolio, Harris will:
58. Considering the data in Exhibit 1 and the economic forecast, which of the
following issues will provide the best hedge against poor consumption outcomes?
59. Using the data in Exhibit 2, which of the following stocks can most likely be
classified as a value stock?
A. A
B. B
C. C
60. Which of the following factors will most likely contribute to a decline in the P/E
ratios, as forecasted by Harris?