QUIZ 2 – Statistic for Economics and Business

30 October 2020
180 min : 13.00 – 16.00

Riza Mahardika 1906389044

1. A pizza delivery restaurant has a new promotion which will give the customer a free medium
pizza if the delivery is late. Based on experience, it indicates that the probability of the delivery
being late is 10%. Price of a medium pizza is Rp 60.000. If there are 10 pizza delivery orders in
the afternoon, what is the probability that:
Let X be the number of late delivery
P = 0,10
a. More than 3 deliveries are late?
P(X > 3) = 1 – [P(X=1) + P(X=2) + P(X=3)]

P(X>3) = 1 – 0,637 = 0,363 or 36,3%

b. All deliveries are on time?
P(X=0) = 0,349 or 34,9%

c. Only 2 deliveries are on time?

P(X=9) + P(X=10) = 0,001 or 0,1%
d. Find the mean and standard deviation of late delivery if there are 100 orders?
Mean = 100*0,1 = 10
Standard deviation = √10*0,9 = 3
e. Find the mean and standard deviation of the total loss due to free pizza associated
to point (d) that cost the restaurant?
Mean of Total loss = 60.000*10 = Rp 600.000
Sd of total loss = 60.000*3 -+ Rp 180.000
2. Based on research world wide, it is known that 3% of people have certain genetic defect. 86% of
tests for the gene detect the defect (true positives). 12% of the tests are false positive.
If a person gets a positive test results, what are the percentage they actually have the genetic
defect?
Please complete your answer by using problem tree.

So the percentage of genetic defect is 18,14%