Confusion Matrix

Test Classification Y
"Positive"
c

Condition X "+" a e

"-" b g

Individual Probabilities Name

P("+") a Incidence of Condition "+"
p("-") b Incidence of "Condition "-"
p(Test POS) c Classification Incidence "POS"
p(Test NEG) d Classification Incidence "NEG"
p(Test POS, "+") e True Positives
p(Test NEG, "+") f False Negatives
p(Test "POS, "-") g False Positives
p(Test "NEG", "-") h True Negatives

Copyright Daniel Egger/ Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)

 Probability Distributions
P(X)
t Classification Y P(Y)
"Negative" p(X,Y)
d P(X)p(Y)

f Conditional Probabilities
p(Test POS | "+")
h p(Test NEG | "+")
p(Test POS | "-")
p(Test NEG | "-")

p("+" | Test POS)

p( "-" | Test POS)
p("+" | Test NEG)
p("-" | Test NEG)
nce "POS"
nce "NEG" Other implied rules
a+b = 1
c+d = 1
e+f+g+h=1

ational (CC BY 4.0)

 Name
p(a,b) Marginal Probability of the Condition
p(c,d) Marginal Probability of the Classification
p(e,f,g,h) Joint Distribution of X and Y
p(ac,ad,bc,bd) Product Distribution of X and Y

Name
e/a True Positive Rate
f/a False Negative Rate
g/b False Positive Rate
h/b True Negative Rate

e/c Positive Predictive Value (PPV)

g/c 1- PPV
f/d 1- NPV
h/d Negative Predictive Value (NPV)

e+f = a
g+h = b
e+g = c
f+h=d