Homework #7: Linear ODEs

Math 4334: Mathematical Modeling

Dr. Scott Norris
October 22, 2020

Problem #1. Personal Finance. Recall that the model for the growth of an investment is
dM
= rM + D, M (0) = M0 .
dt
where r is the interest rate, and D is the net deposit rate, and M0 is the initial balance. Solve this problem
by hand, to obtain a solved model containing the parameters r, D, and M0 (you may follow the derivation
presented in class). Then we will apply the solution to answer a variety of specific questions.

(a) How much savings is needed to support a 20-year retirement at $50K per year? Assume that the interest
rate is 3%1 .
(b) A wise college graduate begins saving at age 20. How much per month must she save to reach the
amount in (a) by age 65?

(c) A foolish college graduate begins saving at age 40. How much per month must he save to reach the
amount in (a) by age 65?

Problem #2. Population Growth. Revisit the united states population growth data. Recall that the
model for population growth and immigration is
dP
= rP + M, P (0) = P0 . (1)
dt
where r is the annual net growth rate, and M is the annual net migration rate, and P0 is the initial population.

(a) Solve this problem by hand. Compare your answer to the simple exponential mode we used earlier to
model the data. How do they differ? Mathematically? In the context of population growth?
(b) Fit your solved model to the data using scipy.optimize.curve_fit(). Plot the fit of your data vs
the data itself, as well as a relative residual of the data.
(c) What does your fit of the model to the data suggest was the average migration rate during the years
1660-1860? Do some research on historical immigration rates. How does your estimate from fitting the
data to a simple ODE compare to what you find in historical records?

1 (This is the average inflation-adjusted rate of return provided by the US stock market over the past 150 years).

1
Problem #3. Atmospheric C14 concentrations. The total number of molecules in the atmosphere
is about 1.06 × 1044 . Of these, in pre-industrial times, about 280 ppm, or 2.97 × 1040 , were carbon dioxide
molecules containing C12 atoms (we’ll invent some notation and call this CO46 2 . However, trace amounts of
CO2 containing C14 (which we’ll call CO48 2 ) are formed when incoming cosmic rays strike N14 atoms, turning
14 48
them into C atoms, which then react with O2 molecules to form CO2 . These molecules are formed at a
rate α of approximately 17,600 molecules per second per square meter2 , and have a half-life of about 5,730
years, eventually decaying back into N14 .
(a) What is the global production rate α of CO48
2 , expressed in units of
molecules
year ?

(b) What is the average decay rate r of CO48

2 , expressed in units of
1
years ?

(c) Write down a linear ODE that governs the number of CO48
2 molecules.

(d) Draw a phase line diagram and trajectories associated with this ODE.
(e) What number of molecules is a fixed point? What is its stability?
(f ) What can you conclude about historical levels of atmospheric CO48
2 ?

(g) In historical living organisms, what fraction F ∗ of carbon would be C14 ?

Problem #4. Carbon Dating. Carbon dating is a method of estimating the age of things that were
formerly alive. When an organism dies, it no longer takes in new CO2 . Consequently, the C14 in its remains
decays exponentially without being replenished, according to the equation
d [C14 ]
= −r [C14 ] , [C14 ] (−A) = [C14 ]orig. .
dt
where the initial condition is assumed to take place a number of years in the past equal to the age of
the artifact, and our observation of that artifact is assumed to take place in the present, at t = 0. It is
straightforward to show that the fraction of carbon-14, given by F = [C 14 ]
[C12 ] , satisfies the same differential
equation:
dF
= −rF, F (−A) = Forig.
dt
where again, the original fraction of C14 is assumed to occur at t = −A, and the fraction we observe today
is obtained when t = 0.
Regardless of the answer you obtained above, assume that the original fraction Forig. of a just-deceased
organism equals 1 × 10−12 .
(a) Plot the observed fraction F (0) that you would see in an artifact of age A years, with A ∈ [0, 20000].
(b) An artifact is found with a C14/C12 ratio of 6.5 × 10−13 ± 1 × 10−14 . About how old is it?
(c) An artifact is found with a C14/C12 ratio of 3.0 × 10−13 ± 1 × 10−14 . About how old is it?

 Forig. = F (−A)
Now assume that the historical fraction oscillates slowly (say, due to Earth’s orbital me-
chanics). Let F (−A) = 1 × 10−12 × 1 + 0.2 sin 10,000
2πA
.
(d) Repeat (a) under the new assumed historical fractions. What do you observe?
(e) Repeat (b) using the graph you generated in (c). Is your estimate more or less certain?
(f ) Repeat (b) using the graph you generated in (c). Is your estimate more or less certain?
Summarize your findings. How do historical variations in the steady concentration affect our ability to date
artifacts?

2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon-14#Origin