Module 8: Tests of Hypotheses For A Single Sample: Statistical Decisions Statistical Hypothesis

Module 8: TESTS OF HYPOTHESES FOR A SINGLE SAMPLE
How do you test that the assumption/hypothesis you made about a population
is true? Write your answers in the space below.
Read: Chapter 10: One- and Two-Sample Tests of Hypotheses by Myers, W.

Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists
Statistical Decisions
 Making decisions about populations on the basis of sample information.
Statistical Hypothesis
 Assumptions (or guesses) about the populations involved, which may or
may not be true. They are generally statements about the probability
distributions of the populations.
Hypothesis Testing
• The intent of hypothesis testing is to formally examine two opposing
conjectures (hypotheses).
• These two hypotheses are mutually exclusive and exhaustive so that one is
true to the exclusion of the other.
• An evidence is accumulated - sample information is collected and
analyzed - for the purpose of determining which of the two hypotheses is
true and which of the two hypotheses is false.
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The Null and Alternative Hypotheses
The null hypothesis, H0:
 States the assumption (numerical) to be tested
 Begin with the assumption that the null hypothesis is TRUE
 Always contains the ‘=’ sign
The alternative hypothesis, H1:
• Opposite of the null hypothesis
• Challenges the status quo
• Never contains just the ‘=’ sign
• Generally, it the hypothesis that is believed to be true by the
researcher.
Possible Situations for Testing a Statistical Hypothesis

H0 is true H0 is false
Do not reject H0 Correct decision Type II error
Reject H0 Type I error Correct decision
Type I error: Rejection of the null hypothesis even though it is true.
Type II error: Non-rejection of the null hypothesis even though it is false.
Illustration:
H0: μ = 50 centimeters per second
H1: μ ≠ 50 centimeters per second
Decision criteria for testing H0: = 50 centimeters per

second versus H1:  50 centimeters per second.
Probability of a Wrong Conclusion

The Probability of a Type I Error (Level of Significance, or Size of the Test)
𝜶 = 𝑷(𝒕𝒚𝒑𝒆 𝑰 𝒆𝒓𝒓𝒐𝒓) = 𝑷(𝐫𝐞𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝑯𝟎 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝑯𝟎 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞)
In practice, a significance level of 0.05 or 0.01 is customary,
although other values are used.
The Probability of a Type II Error
𝜷 = 𝑷(𝒕𝒚𝒑𝒆 𝑰𝑰 𝒆𝒓𝒓𝒐𝒓) = 𝑷(𝐟𝐚𝐢𝐥 𝐭𝐨 𝐫𝐞𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝑯𝟎 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝑯𝟎 𝐢𝐬 𝐟𝐚𝐥𝐬𝐞)
Power of a Test
o The power of a test is the probability of rejecting H0 given that a
specific alternative is true.
𝑃𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎 𝑇𝑒𝑠𝑡 = 1 – 𝛽
Important Properties of a Test of Hypothesis
1. The type I error and type II error are related. A decrease in the probability
of one generally results in an increase in the probability of the other.
2. The size of the critical region, and therefore the probability of committing
a type I error, can always be reduced by adjusting the critical value(s).
3. An increase in the sample size n will reduce α and β simultaneously.
4. If the null hypothesis is false, β is a maximum when the true value of a
parameter approaches the hypothesized value. The greater the distance
between the true value and the hypothesized value, the smaller β will be.
One- and Two-Tailed Tests
One-tailed test: A test of any statistical hypothesis where the alternative is
one sided, such as
𝐻0 : 𝜃 = 𝜃0 ,
𝐻1 : 𝜃 > 𝜃0 or perhaps 𝜃 < 𝜃0
Two-tailed test: A test of any statistical hypothesis where the alternative is two
sided, such as
𝐻0 : 𝜃 = 𝜃0 ,
𝐻1 : 𝜃 ≠ 𝜃0 ,
Since the critical region is split into two parts, often having equal probabilities,
in each tail of the distribution of the test statistic. The alternative hypothesis
𝐻1 : 𝜃 ≠ 𝜃0 states that either θ < θ0 or θ > θ0 .
Example 1: A certain type of cold vaccine is known to be only 25% effective after a
period of 2 years. To determine if a new and somewhat more expensive
vaccine is superior in providing protection against the same virus for a longer
period of time, suppose that 20 people are chosen at random and
inoculated. If more than 8 of those receiving the new vaccine surpass the 2-
year period without contracting the virus, the new vaccine will be
considered superior to the one presently in use. (a) Determine the probability
of committing a type I and type II error. What happens to the values of α and
β when (b) we change our critical value to 7, and (c) the random sample is
100 individuals and the critical value is 36? (Test the null hypothesis that p =
1/4 against the alternative hypothesis that p > 1/4.)
Solution:
H0: p = 0.25 (the new vaccine is as powerful as the present vaccine)
H1: p > 0.25 (the new vaccine is superior compared to the present vaccine)
The test statistic on which we base our decision is X, the number of individuals
in our test group who receive protection from the new vaccine for a period of
at least 2 years. The possible values of X, from 0 to 20, are divided into two
groups: those numbers less than or equal to 8 and those greater than 8. All
possible scores greater than 8 constitute the critical region. The last number
that we observe in passing into the critical region is called the critical value. In
our illustration, the critical value is the number 8. Therefore, if x > 8, we reject H0
in favor of the alternative hypothesis H1. If x ≤ 8, we fail to reject H0. This decision
criterion is illustrated in the figure below.
a. i. Type I error will occur when more than 8 individuals inoculated with the
new vaccine surpass the 2-year period without contracting the virus and
researchers conclude that the new vaccine is better when it is actually
equivalent to the one in use. Hence, if X is the number of individuals who
remain free of the virus for at least 2 years,
20
𝛼 = 𝑃(𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐼 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟) = 𝑃(𝑋 > 8 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑝 = 0.25) = ∑ 𝑏(𝑥; 20,0.25)

𝑥=9
20
20
𝛼 = ∑ ( ) (0.25)𝑥 (0.75)20−𝑥 = 0.0409
𝑥
𝑋=9
We say that the null hypothesis, p = 1/4, is being tested at the α = 0.0409
level of significance. A critical region of size 0.0409 is very small, and
therefore it is unlikely that a type I error will be committed. Consequently, it
would be most unusual for more than 8 individuals to remain immune to a
virus for a 2-year period using a new vaccine that is essentially equivalent
to the one now on the market.
ii. The probability of committing a type II error, denoted by β, is impossible

to compute unless we have a specific alternative hypothesis. If we test the
null hypothesis that p = 1/4 against the alternative hypothesis that p = ½
(p>1/4), then we are able to compute the probability of not rejecting H0
when it is false. We simply find the probability of obtaining 8 or fewer in the
group that surpass the 2-year period when p = 1/2. In this case,
8
1 1
𝛽 = 𝑃(𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐼𝐼 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟) = 𝑃 (𝑋 ≤ 8 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑝 = ) = ∑ 𝑏(𝑥; 20, )
2 2
𝑥=0
8
20
𝛽 = ∑( ) (0.5)𝑥 (0.5)20−𝑥 = 0.2517
𝑥
𝑋=0
This is a rather high probability, indicating a test procedure in which it is quite

likely that we shall reject the new vaccine when, in fact, it is superior to what
is now in use. Ideally, we like to use a test procedure for which the type I
and type II error probabilities are both small. It is possible that the director
of the testing program is willing to make a type II error if the more expensive
vaccine is not significantly superior. In fact, the only time he wishes to guard
against the type II error is when the true value of p is at least 0.7. If p = 0.7,
this test procedure gives
8
𝛽 = 𝑃(𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐼𝐼 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 8 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑝 = 0.7) = ∑ 𝑏(𝑥; 20, 0.7 )

𝑥=0
8
20
𝛽 = ∑( ) (0.7)𝑥 (0.3)20−𝑥 = 0.0051
𝑥
𝑋=0
With such a small probability of committing a type II error, it is extremely

unlikely that the new vaccine would be rejected when it was 70% effective
after a period of 2 years. As the alternative hypothesis approaches unity,
the value of β diminishes to zero.
b. If critical value is set to 7

Testing p = 1/4 against the alternative hypothesis that p = 1/2, we find that
20
20
𝛼 = ∑ ( ) (0.25)𝑥 (0.75)20−𝑥 = 0.1018
𝑥
𝑋=8
and
7
20
𝛽 = ∑( ) (0.5)𝑥 (0.5)20−𝑥 = 0.1316
𝑥
𝑋=0
By adopting a new decision procedure, we have reduced the
probability of committing a type II error at the expense of increasing the
probability of committing a type I error. For a fixed sample size, a
decrease in the probability of one error will usually result in an increase
in the probability of the other error.
c. If the random sample is 100 individuals and the critical value is 36
i. To determine the probability of committing a type I error, we can use
the normal curve approximation with
𝜇 = 𝑛𝑝 = (100)(0.25) = 25 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝜎 = √𝑛𝑝𝑞 = √(100)(0.25)(0.75) = 4.33
The corresponding z-value is
(36 + 0.5) − 25
𝑧= = 2.66
4.33
From the normal distribution curve table, we find that
𝛼 = 𝑃(𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐼 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟) = 𝑃(𝑋 > 36 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑝 = 0.25) ≈ 𝑃(𝑍 > 2.66)
𝛼 = 1 − 𝑃(𝑍 < 2.66) = 1 − 0.9961 = 0.0039.
ii. If H0 is false and the true value of H1 is p = 1/2, we can determine the
probability of a type II error using the normal curve approximation with
𝜇 = 𝑛𝑝 = (100)(0.5) = 50 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝜎 = √𝑛𝑝𝑞 = √(100)(0.5)(0.5) = 5
The probability of a value falling in the non-rejection region when H0 is
true is given by the area of the shaded region to the left of x = 36.5. The
z-value corresponding to x = 36.5 is
(36 + 0.5) − 50
𝑧= = −2.7
5
From the normal distribution curve table, we find that
𝛽 = 𝑃(𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐼𝐼 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 36 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑝 = 0.5) ≈ 𝑃(𝑍 ≤ −2.7)
𝛽 = 0.0035.
The probability of committing both types of error can be reduced by

increasing the sample size.
The illustration above underscores the strategy of the scientist in hypothesis

testing. After the null and alternative hypotheses are stated, it is important
to consider the sensitivity of the test procedure. By this we mean that there
should be a determination, for a fixed α, of a reasonable value for the
probability of wrongly accepting H0 (i.e., the value of β) when the true
situation represents some important deviation from H0. A value for the
sample size can usually be determined for which there is a reasonable
balance between the values of α and β computed in this fashion.
Significance Testing (P-Value Approach)

A p-value is the lowest level (of significance) at which the observed value of the
test statistic is significant.
1. State the value of α.
2. Calculate the p-value.
3. Use judgment based on the P-value and knowledge of the scientific system.
𝑃 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 ≤ 𝛼 ⇒ 𝑅𝑒𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝐻0
𝑃 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 > 𝛼 ⇒ 𝐷𝑜 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑟𝑒𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝐻0
TEST PROCEDURES
A. Single Sample
The z-Test
1. Population Parameter
a. If the population variance is known and 𝒏 ≥ 𝟑𝟎, use:
̅ − 𝝁𝟎
𝒙
𝒛= (𝑪𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒓𝒂𝒍 𝑳𝒊𝒎𝒊𝒕 𝑻𝒉𝒆𝒐𝒓𝒆𝒎)
𝝈/√𝒏
𝑥̅ = 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛
𝜎
𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛, 𝜎𝑀 =
√𝑛
Null Alternative Critical Region

Hypothesis Hypothesis (H1) (Reject H0 if)
(H0)
𝜇 < 𝜇0 𝑧 < −𝑧𝛼
𝜇 > 𝜇0 𝑧 > 𝑧𝛼
𝜇 = 𝜇0
𝜇 ≠ 𝜇0 𝑧 < −𝑧𝛼/2 𝑜𝑟 𝑧 > 𝑧𝛼/2
Example 2: A random sample of 100 recorded deaths in the United States

during the past year showed an average life span of 71.8 years.
Assuming a population standard deviation of 8.9 years, does this
seem to indicate that the mean life span today is greater than 70
years? Use a 0.05 level of significance.
Solution:
1. Hypotheses:
H0: μ = 70 years
H1: μ > 70 years
2. Level of Significance:
𝜶 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟓
3. Critical region (at 𝑧 > 𝑧𝛼 , refer to the table above):
To determine the critical region (at 𝑧 > 𝑧𝛼 ), find z-value such that
the area on its right (since 𝑧 > 𝑧𝛼 ) is 𝜶 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟓. That would be now:
P(Z > 𝑧𝛼 ) = 1 – P(Z < 𝑧𝛼 ) = 0.05
P(Z < 𝑧𝛼 ) = 1 - 0.05 = 0.95
But looking at the normal distribution curve table, we don’t have z-
value with area on its left exactly equal to 0.95. The closest values
are:
P(Z <1.64) = 0.9495 and P(Z <1.65) = 0.9505
The P(Z < 𝑧𝛼 ) = 0.95 is exactly at the middle of these two z-values, so
by interpolation we get
P(Z <1.645) = 0.95
Therefore, the critical region is at
z > 1.645
4. Calculate the z-value and compare it with the critical value

𝑥̅ − 𝜇
𝑧=
𝜎/√𝑛
71.8 − 70
𝑧=
8.9/√100
𝒛 = 𝟐. 𝟎𝟐
5. Decision
Since 𝑧 > 𝑧𝛼 (2.02 > 1.645), reject H0 and conclude that the mean life
span today is greater than 70 years.
Or using the P-Value Approach to make decision:

Using the normal distribution curve table to determine the P-value
corresponding to z = 2.02, we have
P-value = P(Z > 2.02) = 1 – 0.9783 = 0.0217.
The P-value is less than or equal to the 0.05 level of significance
(𝑃 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 ≤ 𝛼). As a result, the evidence to reject H0 in favor of
H1 is even stronger than that suggested by a 0.05 level of
significance.
Example 3: A manufacturer of sports equipment has developed a new

synthetic fishing line that the company claims has a mean breaking
strength of 8 kilograms with a standard deviation of 0.5 kilogram. Test
the hypothesis that μ = 8 kilograms against the alternative that μ ≠ 8
kilograms if a random sample of 50 lines is tested and found to have
a mean breaking strength of 7.8 kilograms. Use a 0.01 level of
significance.
Solution:
1. Hypotheses:
H0: μ = 8 kg
H1: μ ≠ 8 kg
𝜶 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏
3. Critical region (𝑧 < −𝑧𝛼/2 𝑜𝑟 𝑧 > 𝑧𝛼/2 ):
P(Z < −𝑧𝛼/2 ) = α/2 = 0.01/2 = 0.005
P(Z < -2.575) = 0.005 (Use interpolation, same concept as the
previous example)
z < -2.575 or z > 2.575

𝑥̅ − 𝜇
𝑧=
𝜎/√𝑛
7.8 − 8
𝑧=
0.5/√50
𝒛 = −𝟐. 𝟖𝟑
5. Decision
Since 𝑧 < −𝑧𝛼/2 (-2.83 < -2.575), reject H0 and conclude that the
average breaking strength is not equal to 8 but is, in fact, less than 8
kilograms.
Or using the P-Value Approach to make decision:
Since the test in this example is two tailed (µ ≠ µ0), the desired P-value
is twice the area to the left of z = −2.83. Therefore, we have
P = P(|Z| > 2.83) = 2P(Z < −2.83) = 0.0046,
which allows us to reject the null hypothesis that μ = 8 kilograms at a
level of significance smaller than 0.01.
b. If the population variance is unknown and 𝒏 ≥ 𝟑𝟎, use:

̅ − 𝝁𝟎
𝒙
𝒛=
𝒔/√𝒏
where:
𝑛
1
𝑥̅ = 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 = ∑ 𝑥𝑖
𝑛
𝑖=1
𝑛
1
𝑠 = 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 = √ ∑(𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥̅ )2
𝑛−1
𝑖=1
Example 4: A random sample of 33 individuals who listen to talk radio was

selected and the hours per week that each listens to talk radio
was determined. The data are as follows.
9 8 7 4 8 6 8 8 7 10 8 10 6 7 7 8 9 6 5 8 5 6 8 7 8 5 5 8 7 6 6 4 5
Test the null hypothesis that µ = 5 hours versus the alternative
hypothesis that µ ≠ 5 at level of significance of 0.05.
Solution:
1. Hypotheses:
H0: μ = 5 hrs.
H1: μ ≠ 5 hrs.
𝜶 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟓
3. Critical region (𝑧 < −𝑧𝛼/2 𝑜𝑟 𝑧 > 𝑧𝛼/2 ):
P(Z < −𝑧𝛼/2 ) = α/2 = 0.05/2 = 0.025
P(Z < -1.96) = 0.025
z < -1.96 or z > 1.96
𝑥̅ − 𝜇
𝑧=
𝑠/√𝑛
where:
9+8+7+4+8+6+8+8+7+10+8+10+6+7+7+8+9+6+5+8+5+6+8+7+8+5+5+8+7+6+6+4+5
𝑥̅ = 33
𝑥̅ = 6.9394
1 1
𝑖=1(𝑥𝑖 − 6.9394) = 1.5952
𝑠 = √𝑛−1 ∑𝑛𝑖=1(𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥̅ )2 = √33−1 ∑33 2
6.9394 − 5
𝑧=
1.5952/√33
𝒛 = 𝟔. 𝟗𝟖
5. Decision
Since 𝑧 > 𝑧𝛼/2 (6.98 > 1.96), reject H0 and conclude that the average
hours per week is not equal to 5 but is, in fact, more than 5 hours.
2. Population Proportion
If 𝒏𝒑 ≥ 𝟓 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒏𝒒 ≥ 𝟓, use
𝒙 − 𝒏𝒑𝟎 ̂ − 𝒑𝟎
𝒑 𝑥
𝒛= = 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒: 𝑝̂ =
√𝒏𝒑𝟎 𝒒𝟎 √𝒑𝟎 𝒒𝟎 /𝒏 𝑛
𝑵𝒐𝒕𝒆: 𝑨𝒑𝒑𝒍𝒚 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒕𝒊𝒏𝒖𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒄𝒐𝒓𝒓𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 (±𝟎. 𝟓) 𝒊𝒏 𝒓𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒐𝒎 𝒗𝒂𝒓𝒊𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝑿.

(H0)
𝑝 < 𝑝0 𝑧 < −𝑧𝛼
𝑝 = 𝑝0 𝑝 > 𝑝0 𝑧 > 𝑧𝛼
𝑝 ≠ 𝑝0 𝑧 < −𝑧𝛼/2 𝑜𝑟 𝑧 > 𝑧𝛼/2
Example 5: In an experiment on extrasensory perception (ESP), an individual

(subject) in one room is asked to state the color (red or blue) of a
card chosen from a deck of 50 well-shuffled cards by an individual in
another room. It is unknown to the subject how many red or blue
cards are in the deck. If the subject identifies 32 cards correctly,
determine whether the results are significant at the (a) 0.05 and (b)
0.01 levels.
Solution:
1. Hypotheses:
If p is the probability of the subject choosing the color of a card
correctly, then we have to decide between two hypotheses:
H0: p = 0.5, and the subject is simply guessing (the results are due to
chance).
H1: p > 0.5, and the subject has powers of ESP.
𝒂. 𝜶 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟓
𝒃. 𝜶 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏
3. Critical regions (𝑧 > 𝑧𝛼 ):
a. P(Z > 𝑧𝛼 ) = 1 - P(Z < 𝑧𝛼 ) = 0.05
z > 1.645
b. P(Z > 𝑧𝛼 ) = 1 - P(Z < 𝑧𝛼 ) = 0.01
P(Z < 𝑧𝛼 ) = 1 – 0.01 = 0.99
z > 2.33 (2.33 is the closest to 0.99)

np = 50(0.5) = 25, nq = 50(0.5) = 25
𝒙 − 𝒏𝒑𝟎
𝒛=
√𝒏𝒑𝟎 𝒒𝟎
Applying continuity correction (X ≥ 32), x = 32-0.5 = 31.5
31.5 − 25
𝑧=
√50(0.5)(0.5)
𝒛 = 𝟏. 𝟖𝟒
5. Decision
Since the z-value which is 1.84 is greater than 1.645 but less than 2.33,
the results are significant at the 0.05 level and the individual has
powers of ESP. It is not significant at 0.01 level and the results are due
to chance.
The t-Test
1. Population Parameter
If sample size is small (𝑛 < 30), use
̅ − 𝝁𝟎
𝒙
𝒕=
𝒔/√𝒏
𝐷𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑜𝑚, 𝒗 = 𝒏 − 𝟏
If n < 30, use t-test, otherwise use z-test.

Note: Calculate the mean, 𝒙̅ and the sample standard deviation, s if
population variance is unknown (with given data set).
𝑛
1
𝑥̅ = 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 = ∑ 𝑥𝑖
𝑛
𝑖=1
𝑛
1
𝑠 = 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 = √ ∑(𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥̅ )2
𝑛−1
𝑖=1

(H0)
𝜇 < 𝜇0 𝑡 < −𝑡𝛼
𝜇 > 𝜇0 𝑡 > 𝑡𝛼
𝜇 = 𝜇0
𝜇 ≠ 𝜇0 𝑡 < −𝑡𝛼/2 𝑜𝑟 𝑡 > 𝑡𝛼/2
Note: Refer to Student’s t-Distribution Probability Table for t-values.
Example 6: The Edison Electric Institute has published figures on the number
of kilowatt hours used annually by various home appliances. It is
claimed that a vacuum cleaner uses an average of 46 kilowatt hours
per year. If a random sample of 12 homes included in a planned
study indicates that vacuum cleaners use an average of 42 kilowatt
hours per year with a standard deviation of 11.9 kilowatt hours, does
this suggest at the 0.05 level of significance that vacuum cleaners
use, on average, less than 46 kilowatt hours annually? Assume the
population of kilowatt hours to be normal.
Solution:
1. Hypotheses:
H0: µ = 46 kWh
H1: µ < 46 kWh
𝜶 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟓
3. Critical region (𝑡 < −𝑡𝛼 ):
P(T < −𝑡𝛼 ) = 0.05
Looking t-Distribution Table at 𝛼 = 0.05 and with degree of freedom,
v =12-1=11, we have
t < -1.976
Note: The curve is symmetrical at t = 0, t > 1.976 is the same as t < -
1.976.
4. Calculate the t-value and compare it with the critical value
𝑥̅ − 𝜇0
𝑡=
𝑠/√𝑛
42 − 46
𝑡=
11.9/√12
𝒕 = −𝟏. 𝟏𝟔
5. Decision
Since the computed t-value (-1.16) is NOT less than the critical value
(t < -1.976), do not reject H0 and conclude that the average number
of kilowatt hours used annually by home vacuum cleaners is not
significantly less than
46.
1. A random sample of 400 voters in a certain city are asked if they favor an
additional 4% gasoline sales tax to provide badly needed revenues for
street repairs. If more than 220 but fewer than 260 favor the sales tax, we
shall conclude that 60% of the voters are for it. (a) Find the probability of
committing a type I error if 60% of the voters favor the increased tax. (b)
What is the probability of committing a type II error using this test
procedure if actually only 48% of the voters are in favor of the additional
gasoline tax?
2. An electrical firm manufactures light bulbs that have a lifetime that is
approximately normally distributed with a mean of 800 hours and a
standard deviation of 40 hours. Test the hypothesis that μ = 800 hours
against the alternative, μ ≠ 800 hours, if a random sample of 30 bulbs has
an average life of 788 hours. Use a P-value in your answer. Use 0.05 level
of significance.
3. Test the hypothesis that the average content of containers of a particular
lubricant is 10 liters if the contents of a random sample of 10 containers
are 10.2, 9.7, 10.1, 10.3, 10.1, 9.8, 9.9, 10.4, 10.3, and 9.8 liters. Use a 0.01
level of significance and assume that the distribution of contents is normal.
Summative Graded Quiz

Module 8: Tests of Hypotheses For A Single Sample: Statistical Decisions Statistical Hypothesis

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Module 8: TESTS OF HYPOTHESES FOR A SINGLE SAMPLE

Read: Chapter 10: One- and Two-Sample Tests of Hypotheses by Myers, W.

Possible Situations for Testing a Statistical Hypothesis

Decision criteria for testing H0: = 50 centimeters per

Probability of a Wrong Conclusion

𝛼 = 𝑃(𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐼 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟) = 𝑃(𝑋 > 8 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑝 = 0.25) = ∑ 𝑏(𝑥; 20,0.25)

ii. The probability of committing a type II error, denoted by β, is impossible

This is a rather high probability, indicating a test procedure in which it is quite

𝛽 = 𝑃(𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐼𝐼 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 8 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑝 = 0.7) = ∑ 𝑏(𝑥; 20, 0.7 )

With such a small probability of committing a type II error, it is extremely

b. If critical value is set to 7

The probability of committing both types of error can be reduced by

The illustration above underscores the strategy of the scientist in hypothesis

Significance Testing (P-Value Approach)

Null Alternative Critical Region

Example 2: A random sample of 100 recorded deaths in the United States

4. Calculate the z-value and compare it with the critical value

Or using the P-Value Approach to make decision:

Example 3: A manufacturer of sports equipment has developed a new

4. Calculate the z-value and compare it with the critical value

b. If the population variance is unknown and 𝒏 ≥ 𝟑𝟎, use:

Example 4: A random sample of 33 individuals who listen to talk radio was

Null Alternative Critical Region

Example 5: In an experiment on extrasensory perception (ESP), an individual

4. Calculate the z-value and compare it with the critical value

If n < 30, use t-test, otherwise use z-test.

Null Alternative Critical Region

Note: Refer to Student’s t-Distribution Probability Table for t-values.

Summative Graded Quiz

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