Exercise 1

In a Tv show a person can choose one out of three doors, knowing that two
of them have goats behind them and just one have a very fashionable car.
After choosing one door, and before opening it, the host, who knows
perfectly well what is behind each door, open one of the other two doors
revealing one of the goats. Then the host offers the contestant the
opportunity of changing the selected door to the other one still closed. The
contestant knows that, according to the Monty hall problem, there is a
correct answer but he cannot remember which one was.

Help this contestant drawing the two probability trees that would
represent the choices in the two scenarios (a) the contestant chooses one
door and after discarding one of the other two he changes it, and b) the
contestant chooses one door and after discarding one of the other two, he
continues with it) and calculate probability of wining in each one. Explain
your reasoning.