CHAPTER 4 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY THEORY 4.1 INTRODUCTION TO SETS AND SET OPERATIONS 4.2 PERMUTATIONS AND COMBINATIONS. 43 BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPTS 4A STATES OF STATISTICAL INDEPENDENCE AND DEPENDENCE. IMPORTANT FORMULAS ADDITIONAL EXERCISES CHAPTER TEST MINICASE: THE BIRTHDAY PROBILEMJ Review the fundamentals of set theory and set operations 2 Provide an understanding of fundamental counting methods induding permutations and combinations Introduce the notion of probability and the computation of probabilities for selected statistical environments aped The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) estimates the probability of an error on personal income tax returns to be 4, Suppose that an experiment is conducted in which three returns are selected at random for purposes of an audit. The results of auditing an individual tax return are that "it contains no errors’ or “it contains errors.” In a aample of three tax returns, we want to determine all possible outcomes and the probabilities of occurrence of these outcomes (Example 30) Much in tife is characterized by uncertainty. Many phenomena in our world seem to be characterized by random behavior. Most decisions are made in an environ ment characterized by an absence of complete or perfect knowledge. A decision about the number of units of a product to produce is hased upon estimates of the number of units expected to be sold. Lf the nusnber to be sold was known in advance, the decision would be to manufacture precisely this quantity, incurring neither shortages nor overages. However, in actual decision-making situations exact infor- mation is rarely obtemable. Probability concepts can be very useful in dealing with the uncertainty which characterizes most decision-making environmenta. Probability theory takes ad: vantage of the fact that, for many uncertain phenomena, there are “long run” patterns, For instance, on the single flip of « fair coin it is uncertain whether a head or a tail will occur, However, with many flips of the same coin—over the long run— approximately: half of the outcomes should be “heads” and approximately half “cals.” Medical research heavily relies upon long-run observations to generalize re aults. Table 4 | shows the reaults of a study which examined the effectiveness of a new drug in reducing the recurrence of heart attacks, Persons who survived a firet heart attack were given the drug for a period of 5 years, Table 4 ,1 summarizes the rewults of the study as he sample of persons increased. Notice how the percentage, 51 proportion, having no recurrence fluctuates, yet tenda to stabilize, aa the sample increased in size. The uncertainty of the effectiveness of the drug makes it imposai- ble to know what the experience will be for any one person. However, the evidence after 10,000 observations suggests that approximately 63.5 percent of heart attack victims using this particular drug will not have another attack in the 5 years Persons Receiving ber Persona Having No Recurrence __af Heart Attack, Nomber Persons Having NoINTRODUCTION TO SETS AND SET OPERATIONS 159 following « firut heart attack. These results have greater meaning when compared with the experiences for a second sample of heart attack victims who wete not given the same drug, For 10,000 persons in this second group, the percentage having no recurrence was 45.26. The comparative reaults are encouraging regarding the po- tential for the new drug ‘The purpose of this chapter is to introduce the fundamentals of probability theory. Because set theory provides « useful vehicle for presenting and discussing probability concepts, the first section in this chapter provides a brief review of net concepts and set operations, The second section diacusses special counting meth- ods which are quite useful in probability theory. The next section introduces fundamental concepts of probability and the computation of probabilities, The final section discusses the computation of probabilities under conditions of statis- tical independence and statistical dependence. 4.1 INTRODUCTION TO SETS AND SET OPERATIONS Although we used some set notation earlier when discussing solution sets for linear equations, we will now present « more formal review of set concepts and set opera- tior Sets A eet is any well-defined collection of objects. Examplea of sets include the set of students enrolled in History 100 at State University, the set of U.S. citizens who are 65 years of age or older, the set of NBA players who average over 20 points and over 12 rebounds per game during a given senson, the set of cities being considered for the next World’s Fair, and the set of real numbers. Frequently, objects belong to a ‘set because they possesa a certain attribute or attributes required for membership in the set, For a State University student to be a member of the above-mentioned ‘et, he or she must be enrolled in History 100. For an NBA player to be a member of the previously mentioned set, he must have averaged over 20 points and over 12 rebounds per game during the specified season. The objects which belong to a set are called elements of the set. Memberahip in a set is usually defined in one of two ways. The enumeration method simply lists all slements in a set. If we designate a set name by an upper- ‘caso letter, we might define the set of positive odd integers having a value leas than 10 a0 Note the use of braces to group the elements or members of the set A. ‘Theenumeration method is convenient when the number of elementa in aset is mall or when it is not easy or possible to define a property which specifies the requirement(s) for membership in the set. An alternative approach to defining sets. is the descriptive property method. With this approach, the set is defined by atating the property required for membership in the set. The set A, defined in the ‘example above, can be redefined asCHAPTER 4 |NTROULCTION TO PROBABILITY THEORY sae thea ‘ A = (x[x ig.a positive odd integer lees than 1): Verbally, the translation of this equation i “Ais the set consisting of all elements » ‘nuch that’ (the vertical line) x is a positwwe odd integer having a value less than 1( ‘The x to the left of the vertical line indicates the general notation for an element of the set; the expression to the right of the vertical line states the condition(s) required of an element for membership in the set. To indicate that an object e is a member of a set S, we use the notation e&S Verbally, this notation translates as “e the previously defined set A we can say: gEA ‘The notation ¢¢ S means that an object ¢ is not a member of set S. ‘The number of elements contained in a set B is denoted by n(B) ‘Thus for set A, n(A) = 5. Special Sets a member (or element) of the set 3.” In ‘There are certain special seta which are referred to frequently when discussing the algebra of sets. DEFINITION: UNIVERSAL SET The universal set % is the set which contains all possible elements within a particular application under consideration. Et If we consider an opinion survey conducted of « random sample of residents of New York City, several seta of persons might be identified. One net might consist of those persone included in the sample; another set would consist of those resideate not included in the ample. In this application, the universal set ¥ could be defined aa all residents of New York City. DEFINITION: COMPLEMENT The complement of a set Sis the set of all elements in the universal set that are not members of set S. The complement of set Sis denoted by S’ QINTRODUCTION TO SETS AND SET OPERATIONS 161 In Example 1, ifA represents the set of residents included in the survey, the complement af MEM A, denoted A’, in che set of all residents of New York who did not participate in the survey. If the sec S consists ofall positive integers and the universal net ia defined aa all integers, Eee) then the complement S' consists of all negative integers and zero, If. (1,2,3,4,5,6,7,2,9, 10) and A = (1, 3,5, 7,9), the complement of set A contains all elementa which are members of U but not A, or A’ = (2,4, 6, 8, 10) Q DEFINITION: NULL SET The empty, or null, set © is the set consisting of no elements. ‘Consider the xyxtem of equations ar +3y= 10 i+ ay= Since there are no valuew for x and y which aatinfy both equations, the solution set S for the system of equations is the null set, or = Stated differently = ((x, ))4x + Sy = 10 end 4x + ay = —5) DEFINITION: SUBSET A set Ais a subset of a set Bif and only if every element of set A is also an el: ‘ement of set B. This subset relationship is denoted as A € B. which may be read "A is a subset of B."" wang set 4,5,6,7,8,9,10) C= (xz 1.4 real number B=(13,5,7,9) Uem(aie-1= 4 we van identity the following subset relationships: A CC, BCC, DC C,BCA.0~ A,and )B. Verify these for yourself. are there any other subset relationships” 4CHAPTER 4 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY THEORY NOTE By definition, the null set is subset of every set. Consequently, im the prewiotss exemple OC LOC ROC Gad oon Venn Diagram Representation Venn diagrams are a convenient way of envisioning set relationships. To illus- trate, Fig. 4 .1 depicts # universal set % within which is another set A, depicted by a circular area. Figure 4.2 illustrates the complement relationship. The primary value of these figures is the information they convey about the relationships among sets, For example, if # set B is a subset of another set A, the Venn diagram representation of set B should be contained within set A. In Fig. 4.3, sets A and B both subsets within the universal set, with set B portrayed as a subset of A. Figure 4.1 Venn diagram Figure 4.2 Venn diagram Figure 43 Venn diagram ‘Set A within universal set relationsbip of complement representation of subset relationships: ACU, BC %, BCA Set Operations Just as there are arithmetic operations which provide the foundation for algebra, trigonometry, and other areas of study in mathematics, there is an arithmetic of set theory which allows for the development of an algebra of sets. DEFINITION: Sh EQUALITY : Tyo seis dalal Bove equal if and ondy IF (ff) every element of Ais an element ‘of Ham every vienient of #16 an element of A Stated symbolically, 4=R if ACB and BCA PRIDE Given the following sets, determine whether any seta are equal. A=(1,2) c= (1,2,3) B= (x(x- 1x2) 3) 0) Dm (xix? 35 +20) ‘SOLUTION Set B can be defined equivalently ax B= (1, 2, 3). Given this, we can make the statement that set B equals et C, or B = C. The roots of the quadratic equation in set D are x = 1 andsure dt INTRODUCTION TO SETS AND SET OPERATIONS 163 p=(1,2) ‘and set A equals set D, or A= D. DEFINITION: UNION OF SBTS ‘The anion of two sets A and B, denoted y AW B, is a set which consists oi all clements contained in either set A or set # or both Aand B, ‘The Venn diagram representation of AUB is shown in Pik 4 4 Elements 4 ony on of sets — nd Be |. loments nH ony | +~ Element inborn A ard jem the following nota, A= 12.545) B= 1.5.5.7.9) (0) AUB (12,94, 9) U5, 7, 9) 11,2, 3,4, (b) AUC~ (1, 2.3.4, 5) U2, 4,6,8, 10) = (1 (6) BUC= (13.5, 7.9) (2, 4,6, 3, 10) = (1 NOTE The union of any set A and its complement results in the universe! AUA'=At, Also, AUD = A DEFINITION: INTERSECTION OF SETS ‘The intersection of (wa sets Aand B, denoted by AM B, is the set of all ele- ments which belong to both Aand B. ‘The Venn diagram representation of the intersection of two sets A and Bis the shaded area in Fig. 4.5. Note in the diagram that the intersection is the areaCHAPTEF 4 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY THEORY saamoare of bom A ana 8 Given the sets A, B, and C defined in the previous example: (a) ANB=(, 2,3, 4,5) M1, 3, 5,7, 9) = (1,3, 8) MANC- HARON EID He (e) BOC =(1,3,5, 7,9) (2,4, 6, 8, 10) — @ ANA = (1,23, 4,5) 916, » (@) BOX = (1, 3,5,7,9) (1, 2,3, 6, 5,8, 7,8,9, 10) = (1,3, 6, 7,9) |. 3, -5. —7), B= (—3, —2, —1, 0, 1, 2, 3}, and determine (a) AU C, (6) B.C, (qh) AN BUC. An- 0. 1.2.3,5, 7), (4—3, ~1, 2). (A (m4, 3,1, 1,2, 3,4), ‘Some other general properties of sete include the following: The intersection of any eet A and iteelf is the same vet A. Grap) this is shown in Fig. 47INTRODUCTION TO SETS AND SET OPERATIONS: . G) G) | 3 ANG—A The intersection of any set A and the universal set & is the set A. This is shown graphically in Fig. 48. This result wos illustrated in Example 9. Figure 4.8 ANU=A « « Section 4 .1 Follow-up Exercises In Brercises 1-5 redefine each set using the descriptive property method. VA=(L3.5, 2S=(-3,3, 3 V=laeKou) 45-0, 5c=(- 1 11, 28, 15, 17, 19) 2,-1,1,0) In Exercises 6-10 redefine each set by enumeration 6 A= (aja is 4 negative odd integer greater than — 10) 7 B= (b|b in a ponitive integer leas than 8) 8 C= (clc is the mame of a day of the week) 9 B= (blwhena=2,0+36=—7) 10 Af = (mim in the fourth power of a negative integer greater than —6) 11 If = (1,23, 4, 5.6.7.8, 9, 10) and B= (b/d is « positive even integer less than 10), define B, 12 IfWequals the set of students in a mathematics clase and Pis the set of rtudenta who fail the course, define P*CHADTF® INTRODUCTION 16 PROBABILITY THEORY 13 ae Se in Gn integer greater than 6 but less than 14) and S’ =(7, 9, 10, 12, 13), 14 If% in the net consisting of all positive intagors and 7" equala the net consusting of all positive even integers, define T. 16 If % = (|2 ia a positive integer toes than 20), A = (1, 6, 9, 19), B = (b\b ia a positive odd integer Jens than 11), and C = (c\c in a positive orld integer less than 20), define all subset relationships which exist among U, A, B, and C. 16 Given U= (2, 4,6,8, 10, 12, 14, 14, 18) A= (4,816) B= (2, 4,6,8, 10) draw a Venn dingram representing the asta 17 Ite= (x\x is « nogative integer greater than ~11), A= (ala ia w nogative odd integer greater than —10), and B= (b|b in a nagntive integer greater than ~6), draw a dingrara representing the nots 18 Given the following sets, (a) state which, if any, are equal and (b) define all subset relationships among A, B,C. nnd D. Am (3-4) Com (aisx+ x*~ 122 = 0) B= (2\lz—3e+4)=0) D=(0,~4,-3) 19 Given the following seta, (a) state which, if uny, are equal and (b) define all subset relationships among A, #, C, and D. A™(0,1,-1) = (1,0,—1) B=(bib§—b=0) Dm (di-d+d*=0) 20 Given the seta A=(1,3.5,7) B= (1, 2.8, 4,5,6, 7,8, 9, 10) Cm (2, 4,6,8) find: (a) AUB (b) AUC (@) BUC (ann fe) anc (anc 21 If in Exercine 204 = (x}x in @ positive integer) Bnd: (@) ANA’ (6) ACVB () BUC anc (e) BUA Nena 22 Given eny sat Az (0) AUY= () AT () AUQ= (d) AtUe= wePERMUTATIONS AND COMBINATIONS, 167 4.2 PERMUTATIONS AND COMBINATIONS In this vection, we will focus on various counting arrangements of the elements of a set. To begin this discussion, examine the following example, Suppose we are playing a game in which each play involves the roll of « die followed by the {ip of a coin, When the die is rolled, chere are 6 poosible outcomes (1,2, 3, 4, 5, or 6), W! the coin i @ipped, the 2 outcomes are heads (H) or taile (‘T). Let's suppose that we are interested in determining all possible outcomes “or this game. One way of approaching this problem is to construct a tree diagram as shown in Fig. 4.9. ‘The first outcome in this game is the result of rolling tbe die. The tree diagram repre- ‘sonts the 6 possible outcomes with nix branches emanating from left to right. Given any 1 of ‘these outcomes, there are 2 possible outcomes in the second part of the game. Thess are represented in the tree diagram by pairs of branches emanating from each of the six original branches. What the tree diagram enumerates are the 12 possible combined outcomes for this ame. Combis am an rn) Beginoin an of pame wn) an on Figure 4.9 Tree diagram for die roll /coin fip example. PRACTICE EXERCISE Construct the tree diagram which enumerates all possible outcomes in the previous game if the coin is flipped first, followed by the roll of the die. How many combined outcomes are there?CHAPTER 4 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY THEORY ‘Tree diagrams can be very effective in portraying and counting the possible outcomes of a sequence of experiments or events. They do have limitations when| the number of possible outcomes increases. If we were to draw a tree diagram corresponding to the possible outcomes in the drawing of a six-digit lottery number, imagine the size and number of branches. However, we might indeed want to| evaluate the number of possible outcomes to assess our chances of winning such a lottery. Fortunately, there are more efficient ways of counting these possibilities. FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLE OF COUN TIN (Mohkipitestion Reale} 1110109 cxpertmeitts ory nerfortwed in order. and there are ny possible outcomes for the fi! experiment did n, possible outronaes far the sec ond experintent. ther there are my-* ty Possible snbined outcomes. An tmplicit axsumpiior is thet the outcome in th: sr experiment in me tray Influsnces (he out.vimie of the seccnd capeivieat FN experiments are nertrmed te order. with m,. outcomes for the ¥ experiments, then there arc Moms My possible comoines! «iteimes If we refer to Example 10, the first experiment was the roll of a die and it had six possible outcomes (n, = 6), The second experiment had two possible outcomes (ng = 2). Using the fundamental principle of counting, the number of possible combined outcomes for the tequence of experiments is computed aa ny > iy = (8)(2) = 12 If we refer to the drawing of w six digit lottery number, the drawing of eech digit is an exporiment with 10 pomsible outcomes. The number of possible combined outcomes (or the number of possible lottery numbers) is computed as My = My Me My Mg IO 10 10+ 10-30-19 1 ~ 1,000,000 (What do you think about the chance of winning?) (Gurgical Team) ‘The chief surgeon for an upcoming tranuplant operation ix preparing to select the mupporting surgical team, Needed will be one assisting surgeon, one resident surgeon, one anesthesiologist, one surgical nurve, one assisting nurse, and one orderly. Given the date of the aurgery, the chief surgeon can select from three assisting wurgeons, seven resident surgeons, five anesthesiologista, nix wurgical nurves, ten assisting nurses, and five orderlies. How many possible supporting surgical teams can be selected?MUTATIONS: AND. COMBINATIONS 169 SOLUTION If we apply the fundament principle of counting, the number of possible teams equi 407) BB 10+ 5 = 31,600 a now use this Having discussed the fundamental principle of counting, we principle in developing two other important counting methods. Permutations A permutation is an ordered arrangement of a set of items, Consider the three numerals 1,2, and 3. One permutation of these numerals is 123. Another permuta- tion ie 132. All the different permutations of these three numerals are 192-213 BBL 812 BAD RULE 1: PERMUTATION COUNTING Thenumbér fF permulations of a uifferent items taken a at @ times denoted vel ah = min Wn 2) BD ‘The logic underlying Eq, \ 4 .1) is that in selecting the first of the n items, there are nehoices. Once the first item is gelected, there remain n — 1 choices for the second item, of n(n ~ 1) possible choices for the first two items, Following selection of the second item there are n ~ 2 choices for the third item, or n(n — 1)(n — 2) possible choices for the first three items. This logic concludes that having selected the firat n— Litems, there remains bnit one choice for the nth item. Equation ( 4.1) can be rewritten using factorial notation as (4.2) ‘The notation n! (read ''n fac! >rial") is a shorthand way of representing the product on the right side of Eq, ( 4 1). Pe example, "5 factorial” is expreased ax and 10!=10-9+8°7 By definition vel | The number of different permutations of the three numerals 1, 2, and 3 taken three at a time is ,P 3i=3-2-1=6. Note that this equals the number of different permutations rated previously,CHAPTER 4 INTRODUCTION 70 PROBABILITY THEORY FPREFY Six football coams compete in particular conference, Axaussing no tie, how muny diferent ¢nd-of-season rankings are possible in Lhe confersne? SOLUTION ‘The number of different rankings MULE 2: PERMUTATION COUNTING The number of permutations of n different objects taken rat a time ts de noted by ,P, where (4.3) apni The logic underlying Eq. ( 4.3) is similar to that for Eq. ( 4.1). However, ance 7— Litems have been selected, the number of different choices for the rth item equal n—(r—1),orn—r+1 An slternative statement of Ey ( 4) is obtained by multiplying the right side of Bq, (4,3) by (n= rin =r)! Th = nia in n-r4) =nin—1)ir—2)- + stn 1) or (4) to finiah & race in their A person wishes to place a bet which seleeta the firat three correct order of finish. [feight horaes are in the race, how many different possibilities exint for the first three horven (assuming no tien)’ nes ‘SOLUTION According to Eq, (4.9), way number of possibilities iv »Pye Re 6 = 336 or, according to Bq.( 4,4),PERMUTATIONS AND COMBINATIONS 171 7:6 = 336 ation ia (hat there are sight poasibilitien for first place wn poasibilicies for second place; and, given the nelection ird place itineraries can he and his staif consider SOLUTION Because “order of visits" in important in planning an itinerary, the number of possible itinerarion is equal to the niwaber of permutations of seven cities taken three at a time, oF PRACTICE EXERCISE In Example 16, (a) suppose the hi cittes many different itineraries arc there? (b) With t that the candidate wishes to visit toy there? Answer: (ur 336,10 ther than seven. How origina’ seven cities assume ent itineraries are Combinations With permutations we ure concerned with the number of different ways in which @ set of items can be arranged. In many situations there is an intereat in the number of ways in which a sot of items ea.s be selected without any particular concern for the order or urrangemeic of the items, For example, one may be interested in determining the number of different committees of three people which can be formed from six candidates. In thie instance, the committee consisting of (4, B, C) in the same committee as (H, A, C}, where A, B, and C represent three of the candidates. Order of selection is not significant in determining the number of different committees. : A combination ix 4 set of items with no consideration given to the order or arrangement of the items. A combination of r itema selected from a set of nm items ix a subset of the set of n items. Consider the set of four letters {A, B,C, D}, Suppose we are interested in determining the cumber of combinations of these four lettersCHAPTER 4 INTRODUCTION TO PROBAUILITY THEORY ARC ACR RAC OA CAB BA ABD ADR BAD BABAR DBA ACD ADE CAD CDA DAO ued BOC RECA COR ew Figure 4.10 Permutations of the letters (A, 8, C, D) taken three at a time when taken three at a time, Let's begin by enumerating all possible permutations of these four when taken three at a Lime. Figure 4 10 displays these permutations. According to Eq. ( 4.4) there should be, and are, in Pig. 4 10 different permutations. Notice that each row in Fig: 4 .10 represents the different permutations of three of the four letters; that is, given three different letters, there are 3! = 3+ 2- 1 = 6 different arrangements of the three letters. Since a combina. tion of the three letters does not consider order, each row actually represents only one combinetion. Thus there are only four different combinations of the four letters when taken three at a time. In general, the relationship between permutations and combinations is P= Cerri or, when solving for ,C,, (4.5) COMBINATIONS COUNTING RULE ‘The number of different combinations of r items which can be selected fromPERMUTATIONS AND COMBINATIONS ferent ems is more commonly dcnoted ns (") x Tis To return to the committee example, the number of different combination three at a time equal: six persons tal GS-4 gRy PRUE ET Super Bowl organi: he selected. How many different teams of are selecting game otheials From 12 officiate who are eligible, § wil te jclale can be wlected from the 12 SOLUTION The number of dif nt teams of officials is PRACTICE EXERCISE Suppose in the Super Bow! example that 15 officials are eligible and 6 will be Ansiver 5098 selected. How many different teams of officials can be selec the presidential candidate in Example 16, how many combinations of three dhe wi SOLUTION In this problem, order of visits is not relevant. We are interested in determining the number ations problem, he ond his staff consider visiting’ of different sets of three cities which might be considered. This is « combiEE 174 CHAPTER 4 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY THEORY Qa junting methods, as illus Some counting problems require combinations of ¢ trated by the following example (Nutrition Planning) Nutritionists recommend that sach adult conmume, on daily basis, fe minimum of (a) four servings from the milk group of foods, (b) two servings from the meat soup, (c) four servings from the vegutable and fruit group, and (d) four servings from the brand and cereal group, Suppose that a chef has aix items from the milk group, five items from the meat group, seven items from the vegetable and fruit group, and eight items from the bread and cereal group. I the chof is to provide no more than one serving of any given iter during the day, how many different groupings of food could be considered for a given day's menu SOLUTION ‘This problem requires the uae of the combin counting rule and the fundamental principle of counting, To find the solution, we first determine che number of combinations of ‘each food group that can be provided on any given day. Forexample, the number of different combinations of milk group items is Similarly, the numbers of different combinations for the other three food items are, respec: tively, {5 Es ‘ (eat) ()= am (nsdn (1 , (oresdandcerast) (J = i Given the number of different options which can be selected from each food group, we can ‘uso the fundamental principle of counting to determine the total number of diffarent food groups. ‘Total possible food grou w= (4)(3)(2)(8)PERMUTATIONS AND COMBINATI 175 Section 4.2 Follow-up Exercises 1 A game consints of flipping a coin twice, Draw a tree disgram which enumerates all nuaible combined outcomes for the game, mnsista of fipping a coin ¢ evusmernten all ponsible combined o game. 4 Ensiasiona Control An automobile inspection sration inspects vehicles for level of air pollution emissions. Vehicles either pass (P) or fail (P) the inspection. Draw adeeision tre which enumeraley the poasible outcomes aseociated with five consecutive automo: mes in a row. Draw a tree diagram which bile inspections 4 Health Profile A cancer research female; heavy smoker, mod oct claasifies persona in four categories: male ot ate smoker, or nonémoker; regular exercise program or no it overweight, Draw a tres diagram to enumerate all regular program; overweigh possible claaaifications of Use the fundamental counting principle to solve Exercises 5 A livense plate 00 single-digit numbers. Deter- mine the number of different license plate codes which are possible 6 College Admissions The « | university classifies applicants ‘ ate; preferred college within the university cation, and Pharmacy); above-average, ‘ond request for financial aid or no request for classifications ive courses he is considering are are three possible English instructors, six soci roctors, four matherat: ht history instructors, and Bve political science instructors, Deter: {different seta of instnictors possible for hin fall schedale, Jephone numbers if nowe of the first sta of two Lettare followed by insions office at a lo: inl aid. Datarmine the number o Engneering, Busina averuge, or below-average SAT 7 A student is planning bis schedule anine the number # Determine the number of possible seven digit three digite can equal zero and (0) Any digite can be used {b) The first digit must be odd, alte (cl All digite must be even, (a) No digit can be repeatad. after that beeween even and odd digits Evaluate the following factorial expremione er 10 9 ths 12 (15 —8)! n 15 a 14 38 Bi ‘ In Exercises 21-28, evalumte each aymbol 21 (Py176 CHAPTER 4 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY THEORY 23 25 27 29 1Py (3) () Ten horse fing gate for a major sweepstakes race. How many different starting arrangements are ponaible?” A political candidate wishes to vivit eight different states. In how many different ardera can abe visit these states? The name political candidate in Exercise 30 hua time and funds to vivitonly four tates. How many different combinations of four states can she viait”? Acredit card company insues credit enrda which have a there-lettar orefix ay partof the card number. A saraple card number im ABC1254 a) If each letter of the prefix ia to be different, uow many y'reiixee are possible? (O)If each of the four numerals following the prefix is in he different, how many different four-digit sequences are possible? Eight astronauts are being considered for the next fight team, [fn Aight team consinta of three members, how many different combinations of ustrunauts could be conaid- ered? A portfolio management expert is considering 30 stocs for investment. Only 15 etockn ‘will be nelected for inclusion in « portfolio, How many different combinations of atocka can be considered Four persons are to be selected for the hard of directors of a local hospital. Iftwalve candidates have been selected, how many different groups of four could be selected for the board” Given a committee of ten persona, in how many ways on we select 4 chairperson, vice chairperson, and recording secretary? Six airline companies have submitted applications for opernt ‘x new interna tional route, Only two of the companies will be awarded permits to operate over the roure. How many different eeta of airlines could be relected” Medical Rewearch A major research foundation ia considering finding a wt of medi cal research projects, Fifteen applications have been submitted, bic only six will re ceive funding. How many different seta of projecta could be funded” A bridge hand consists of 13 cards, How many different bridge handa can be dealt from, ‘a deck consisting of 52 cards? Design Team The president of « major corporation hus decided to undertake the development of 4 major new product which will give the corporation a significant competitive edge. The president wants to appoint a s\xecial product design team which ‘will consint of three engineers, one marketing research analyst, one financial analy ‘and (wo production supervisors. ‘There are right engineers, four marketing research analysts, nix financial analysts, and five production supervisors being considered for the team. How many different design teams could he created” Eduention The chairperson of a bigh achoo! mathematica department wants to select ight Keniors, atx juniors, five sophomores, and four (reshmen for the high school mathematics team, Ten senior, eight juniors, sight sophomores, and six freshmen have applied for the team and have qualified an the banis of their motheroatics grades How many different teams could the chairperson select from this group”BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPTS 4,3 BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPTS ‘This section will introduce the notion of probsbil concepts y and some besic probability Experiments, Outcomes, and Events The notion of probability is associated with random processes, or random experiments, \ random experiment is a proceas which results in one of « number of possible outcomes. ‘T outcomes are known prior to the performance of the random experiment, but one cannot predict with certainty which particular outcome will result, Claasic random experiments include flipping coin, rolling a die, drawing » card from a well-shuffted deck, and selecting # bi There ere many random possibl from an urn which contains a certain number of ball processes around us which duce defective products in a random manner. ‘The times between the arrivals of telephone calls nt a telephone exchange, carsat tollbooths, and customers at super: markets have heen described as random procerwes by which the sea of a child is determined is also random. Each repetition of an experiment can be thought of as a trial. Zach trial hes an observable outcome. If we agume in the coin-fipping experiment that the coin cannot come to rest on its edge, the two possible outcomes for a trial ure the 2 of tail, The set of all possible outcomes for an experiment is called the sample apace. The sample space for an experiment is theset of outcomes S such that any performance of the experiment (trial) rewultain one and only one element of S. Bach element in S in referred to as a simple outcome. For the coin-flipping example, th les obvious, Many 1 ufacturing processes pro he pro occurrence of # head or the occurren sample space S is defined as ‘= (head, tail) Foran experiment which measures the time between arrivals of t telephone exchange, the sample space might be defin lephone calls at a dos = (()t is meanured conds and t = 0) In the coin- flipping experiment we have a Anite sample epace because there are a finite number of possible outcomes. the telephone call experiment we have an infinite sample space because there ure an infinite number of possible outcomes. Given an experiment, outcomes are frequently classified into evente. Anevent EF for an experiment is a subset of a sample space, as shown in Fig. 4 ,11. The way in which events are defined depends upon the set o omes for which probabilities are to be computed. For the coin-fipping experiment, eventa and, outcomes ure likely to be defined identically, as shown in Fig, 4 .12. In Fig. 4,12 there is n each event and each simple outcome in the ‘one-to-one correspondence betwe sample space 77178 HAPTER 4 is ory et BABILITY THEORY Fighre 4.11 An event isa subset of the sample space Simele Simla Figure 4.12 Quteonve-event mapping for coin flip experiment If an event E consists of only one simple outcome in S, it is called a aimple| event. ‘The relationship between an outcome and an event can be illustrated better when considering the experiment involving the time between arrivala of tolephone calls, Evonts may be defined in different ways depending on the purpose of the experiment, In Fig. 4 .13, the infinite sample space has been tranaformed into an infinite set of events using a one-for-one mapping of simple outcomes into simple events, For the same experiment, Fig. 4 .14 shows a mapping of the infinite sample space into two evenita. Thus, it is possible that an event can be defined in such a way 08 to include multiple outcomes. If an event & consists of mora than one simple outcome in § it is called a compound event. Suppose that an experiment consists of selecting three manufactured parte from. produc: tion process and observing whether they are acceptable (satisfy all production specificationa) or defective (da not satiafy all specifications). (0) Determine the aumple space S. Bimota Simote ucome Evert (Ti tatonen wucomive rah] (Time beeen saceeniva en Oy. nnd OE, Viet bey hein SE Lede Figure 4,13 Outcome-event mapping for telephone call experimenture 45 ree diagram for ample 20. | i 30 wend | Figure 4.14 Ov it for te I exp (b) What outcomes are included in tbe event “exnetly ccoptable parta"? (c) What outeotnee are included in th t “ot Jeaat one defective part”? SULUTIUN (a) Figure 13 nerating ssible outcomes for this experiment, The latter A der A ie letter D a “defective” part. The possible experiment utcome are represented by the solution space S™ (AAA, AAD, ADA, ADD, DAA, DAD, DDA, DDD whore the elem le outcomes for the experiment. (b) The event “oxai ta” ia the subset of 5Figure 4.16 CHATIEX 4 INTRONLCTION 79 PRORABILITY THEORY Note that this event is a compound event. (c) The event “at least one defective part" is a compound event, This event includev al simple outeones characterized by one, two, or three defective parts. It is the subset of E, = (AAD, ADA, DAA, ADD, DAD, DDA, DDD) DEFINITION: MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE BVENTS A’set of events is Said to be mutaellp exefusive if the occurrence of any one of the events precludes the occurresice of aity of the other events. Specifi- cay the events £. 6, ... , Byare mutually exclusive if £,9 E,= 2 for Mand fia) f In flipping a coin, the two possible simple outcomes are heads and tails, Sined the occurrence of a head precludes any possibility of « tail, and vice verse, thd events “heads” and “tails” are mutually exclusive events, Suppose for the roll of die, two events are defined as &, ("one") and #, ("a value lesa than three”). E, an E, aro not mutually exclusive because the occurrence of one event does not neces sarily preclude the other. For a single trial, the outcome “one” implies that both E and E, have occurred. Figure 4,16 is a Venn diagram representation of mutuall exclusive and nonmutually exclusive events in # sample space S. Consider a survey in which a random sample of registered voters is selected.’For cach voter selected, heir sex and political porty affiliation are noted. The events “Democrat” ani “woman” are not mutually exclusive because the selection of a Democrat does not precludd ‘the pousibility that the person i6 also a woman. ‘The two events man” and “wornan” would be mutually exclusive, as would the events “Democrat,” “Republican,” and "Independent. DEFINITION: COLLECTIVELY EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS A sut of events is said t0 be collectively exhaustive if their union accounts fuy all possible autcomes of an experiment (ie,, their union is the sample spat.BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPTS 181 ‘The evente “head” and “tail,” associated with the flip of @ coin, are collectively exhaustive since their union accounts for all possible outcomes. For an experiment. which involves flipping a coin two times, the eventa H, H,, H,T,,and 7, T, describe possible outcomes. This set of events is not collectively exhaustive since the union of the events does not include the outcome 7; Hy. For the same experiment, the set of events H, Hy, H, Ty, T;T,,and 7; Hy in both mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, Major - (a) ny (8) Sex __ Business Liberal Arts reengineering Total Male (M) 350 300 100 750 Female (F) 260 450 50 150 Total 600 750 150 1,500 (College Adminsions) Table 4 .2 indicates some characteristice of the first-year clans a junior college, Suppove that we are going to veleet a ntudent at random from this class Byenta for this experimaont can be defined in different ways. The nample space S consists of ‘imple outcomes which describe the vex and major of the student, Thus, S=(MB, ML, ME, FB, FL, FE) We might also define events by sex or major. For instance, the event “male student" (M) isa compound event consisting of the simple outcomes MB, ML, and MB, or M = (ME, ML, MB) Similarly, the event “engineoring student” (E) is the compound event E= (MB, FE) Determine, for ench of the following weta of events, whether they are mutually exclusi and/or collectively exhaustive. (a) (M, F) (b) (8, L, (©) (MB, ML, ME, B) SOLUTION (0) The two events M (onale) and F (female) are mutually exclusive becauea the occurrence of a male student precludes the possibility of a female student, and vice versa, The two eventa are also collectively exhaustive since all outcomes in the sample space can be mapped into thene eventa (b) The three events # (business), L (liberal arts), and E (preengineering) are mutually exclusive. The reason for this is that the occurrence of one major precludes the ponsibil ity of the other two majors, The three eventa are also collectively exhaustive singe all outcomes in the sample spsce can be mapped into these events. (c) The eventa MB, ML, ME, and B are not mutually exclusive because the occurrence of aCHAPTER. 4 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY THEORY mals in business (‘MB) doas not precluce the occurrence of a business major (B), Thet ‘events are not collectively exhaustive sinos they do not recount for femal Wberal arta or preanginesring PRACTICE EXERCISE Determine whether the following event lectively exhaust (@ {M, FB, L mutually exclusive and/or col: Anse: (a} Not coutuslly exclusive but collectively exhaustive: (bj mutually exclusive and coller tively exhaustive, (¢ neither mutually exclusive nor collectively exhaustive Probabilities Although we know the possible outcomes of « random experiment, wa canno predict with certainty what outcome will occur, We can gues head or tail for t! flip of acoin, but we cannot know for sure. With many random processes, however, there is long-run regularity, As mentioned earlier, the long-run expectation in Sipping a coin is that approximately half of the outcomes will be heads and hal tails. In the roll of a die, the long-run expectation ia that each side of the die will occur approximately one-sixth of the time, These values reflect the expectation of the relative frequency of an event. The relative frequency of an event is the proportion of the time that the event occurs. It ix computed by dividing the number of times m the event occura by the number of times n the experiment is conducted The probability of an event can be thought of as the relative frequency m/n of tha event over the long run, Given the nature of the relative frequency of an event, we can state the follow ing probability rule, Ame 1 - The probabwiy of ar event < demoted hy PPL wa number tira O and 1 Inehusive. 0° Pibyea an ‘Two special cases of Eq. (2.7) are P(E) = 0 and PL) = 1. If P(E) =O, it is certain that event E will not occur, For example, if a coin is two-headed, P({tail) = Oina single flip of the coin. Jf P(E) = 1, it in certain that event Ewill ‘acour. With the same coin, P(bead) ~ 1. If 0< PB) <1, there is uncertainty about the occurrence of event E. For example, if P(E) = .4, we can state that there in a 40 percent chance (likelihood) that event E will occur. (College Admissions, continued) Table 4 ities of the first-year class at a junior colleg in Rxample 22) indicated some character Assume that m student will be selected atBASIC PROBABILITY CONCE 183 person has an equal cbanice of being selected. ability, we can estimate the likelihood thar t For example, the probability thet the random from the freshman clase and that e Using.the relative frequency concept of selected student will have cer: selected atudent will be a male is number of males PIM) = otal aurber of Giwt-yenr studenta 500 ‘The probability that the selected student will be a preenginesring studant in of preengineering at ( firet-yenr students ‘The probability that the volocted atudont will be a female majoring in businens is Pern) = 22 ow 36 the probabilities of vartovs events assoc! student. Notice that the aum af the ted with aolecting babilities for the eventa M and F equals 1, Similarly the sum of the probabilities for the eventa 8, L, and equals Major (a) (O (8) Sex Business Liberal Arts reengineering Total Male (M) 29a 200 067 x) Female,(¥) 167 a0 09 500 ‘Total 400 x0 100 000 POLNT FOR — Whydothe probabilities for thie two different sets of events (M, Fyand (i LE) THOUCRT @ each total 1? DISCUSSION Probabilities may be classified in several ways. One classification is the dis. tinction between objective and subjective probabilities. Objective probabili ties are based upon historicel experience or general knowledge. For example, prob abilities assigned to the events associated with Sipping a fair coin or rolling die ure ‘based upon much historical and generally known experience, Other objective prob184 Ey n (Number of Major Storma) Fin) CHAPTER 4 INTRODNICTH NTO PRORABILITY THEORY _ abilities are assigned hecause of actual experimentation For instance, if one has been told that a die is “loaded,” one method of determiring the probability of any ide occurring is to roll the die many times while keeping a record of the relative frequency for each side Subjective probabilities are assigned in the absence of wide historical experi- ence. They are based upon personal experiences and intuition. ‘They are really expressions of personal judgment. A subjective probability would be the probability that you would assign to your receiving a grade of A in this course. Such an estimate would reflect vour personel assessment of auch factors as your aptitude in this type of course, Your perception of the degree of difficulty of this course, and your assessment of the instructor and the way in which he or abe will conduct the course and evaluate performance Some Additional Rales of Probability ats 3 H P(E) represents the probability that an thet will ot occur, deiolel by PLE, i: Povill eocurs the probability ME) = 1 - PIB) (487 If the probability that & bosiness will earn w profit during its first year of operation is estimated at 85, the probability that it will not earn a profit during the first yeurin 1 — 8h = 65, Given a “fir” die, the probability of rolling a "one" equals 4. The probubility of not rolling a “one” equals | RULE 4 VW everus & and are mutually exclusive, the in By Wall xe 8 vability vag ether £j PAE, U BY PLE + INEZ) (4,9) (Public Works) The department af public works for acommunity is gearing up for winter. ‘The department in planning ite sand and galt needa for maintaining ronda during and after snowstorms. An analysis of past winters has remulued in the probability estimates in Table 4A regarding the expected number of major enowslorma. Whet isthe probability of three or more major snowatorins during the coming year? 0 10 2 10 a 20 More tBASIC PROBABILITY. CONCEPTS 185 SOLUTION ‘Phe siwple eveats in Table 4 4 which correspond to the compound event "3 or more” major nowatormeare n~ 3 note than 3. These two simple venta are rautually exclusive Therefore, the probability of three or more major snowstorms ia PS or mote) = PU) + Plmore than 3) 20 + 15 = 35 Q RULE & Chon tmetually exchinve events &, By, 6,. Uhe probability that 2, E ur B, will occur és PUES Bs 1B) = PIE) + PUB) + = 4 PLB) (4.10) what is the probability of having fewer than three Riven the inf major xnuwatorms’ SOLUTION ‘The visnple events corresponding to “fower than three" storms are 0, 1, and 2 storms. Since these simple events are mutually exclusive, we can apply rule 4, resulting in Pleas than 3) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2) = 10 + 25 + .30-— 65 vould have been solved using the result in Exaraple 24 and apply- NOTE = This prob! ing tule 21 Piless than 3) = 1 — P(3 oF more) ~1- 555.65 __ When a set of events is not niutually exclusive, rule 3 must be modified to reflect the possibility that two events may occur at the same time. Rui 3 The youbabliy of acourtecee of evant By, event By. or buth By and By is (Ly) © PUB) PUR BD 44-41) Note that the intersection operator is used to denote the joint or simultaneous occurrence of avents £, and Fi Role 3 is the specinl caso of rule 5 where P(E, 1 Ey) = 0.Th istwenuse By and186 CHAPTER 4 INTRODUCTION 10 PROBABILITY THEORY Figure 4.17 Fle 3: PE, UES ® PED + PUE) /Murvally exciiive evens) (Events 6or mutually exclusive) E, are assumed to be mutually exclusive in rule 3, meaning that the eventa can never occur together. Figure 4 .17 illustrates theso rules using Venn diagrams. In these diagrams, areas represent probabilities, with the area of the sample space S axnumed to equal 1.0. ‘periment consisting of s-lecting one card at random from # deck of 62 cards, the events "king" and “spade” are not mutually exclusive. The probability of salecting a king, « spade, of both a king and a spade (the king of spades) is determined by applying rule 5, ar (king U spade) = P(kking) + P(apade) — P(king 1 spade) = Pcking) + Plspade) — Pking of spades) ~ati-a “ist Note that P(king 9 spade) must be subtracted to offset the double counting of the event (king 9 spade}. When P(king) is computed, the king of apades ie included among the four in the deck; and when P(apade) is computed. the king of epades is included among the 1 spades in the deck. Thus, double counting of the king of spades has occurred, and P(king of spades) must be subtracted PRACTICE EXERCISE | In-Example 26, what is the probability of selecting a “face” card (king, queen, or jack) oF a heart? Annwer 22/59. | (Energy Conservation) A group of 2,000 people wan surveyed regarding policies which tight be enacted to conserve oil. Of the 2,000, 1,000 people naid that gaa rationing would be acceptable to them, 500 eaid that a federal surcax of $0.25 per gallon would be acceptable, and 275 indicated that both rationing and the surtax would be acceptable. If a person is selected at random from thin group, what is the probability that the person would: (a) Find the surtax mcepsmale? b) Find the surtax acceptable but not gas rationing? (c) Find one or both of the alternatives acceptable? (d) Find neitt, +r alternative acceptable?BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPTS SOLUTION A Venn diagram is useful in summarizing the survey renulta, Figure 4.18 ia the Venn diagram for this eurvey. Note that the 275 finding both policies acceptable are represented by the intersection of seta X and T. The 1,000 persona in eet R consist of two types of respondents: 275 persons who find both policies acceptable and 725 who find rationing acceptable, but not the eurtox, Similarly, the 600 persons found in vet T consist of the 275 who find both policies neceptable and 225 who approve of the surtax but not rationing. Adding together those who approve of one or both of the policies, we get a total of 1,228. "The remaining persons (775) are those who approved of neither policy. {a} Since 600 persons approved of the surtar, tha probability that a person would approve is number of persona pry = Spproving surtax number of persona surveyed (0) 225 persona indicated approval of the surtax but not rationing. Thus, the probability of selecting much a person in 225/2,000 = .1126 (©) We can answor this part in two ways. The simplest way ia to count up the number of respondents who epproved of one or both policies and divide by the total, or 725+ 215 +295 _ 1,225 PRU 7) = TE LT + 206 1206 | y 2,000 2,000 ~ ®1%5 Or we can use rule 5. PURW T) = PCR) + PAT) — P(ROT) We computed P(7) in part a. Verify that P(R) = .60 and P(R AT) = .1376. Therefore, PARUT) = 50+ 25 — 137% = 6125CHAPTER 4 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY THEORY {d) Using the relative frequency approeeks, this probability equals 776/2,000 = .3875. Or we con une our answer in part ¢ av follow: other nates weeqvatie )~PMRUTY |= ~1- 6125 = 3875 a Section 4.3 Follow-up Exercises 1 Pollution Monitoring A water quality inepector is conducting an experiment where henamplea the water from vorious wells to neo if it has acceptable (A) or unacceptable (U) levels of contaminants, Suppoue the inepector in going to inapect three wella, one after the other, and record the quality of the water for each (a), Determine the axmuple space S for this experiment. (8) Construct « tree diagram enumerating the posible outcomes (©) What simple outcomes are included in the event "exactly two acceptable wells"? (@) What simple outcomes are included in the event “at leaat one acceptable well”? 2 Recidiviem A criminal justice researcher ia studying the rate of recidivism (repeat offenders) for child molestation. He is conducting an experiment where he exatnines the criminal record for persone convicted of child molestation. If a person has beea con- vieted more than once, he is classified as a “recidiviet” (R), If person bas not been convicted more than ance for child molestation, be ia classified asa “nonrecidiviat" (N) in the experiment. Ifthe researcher examines the records of three offenders, (a) deter mine the ample apace S for the experiment, (b) construct » tree diagram enumerating the powible outcomes for the experiment, (c) determine the set of sizple outcomes included in the event “two or fowar recidivists,” and (d) datermine the set of simple outcomes included in the event “at least one recidiviat.” Table 4.5 indicates some characteristics of @ poo! of 1,000 applicants for an adminis- trative position, Applicants are classified by sex and by highest educational degree received. Suppose that one upplicunt is tobe selected at random in an experiment. The anmple apace S for this experiment consieta of the nimple outcomes S = (MC,MH, MN, FC, FH, FN) (a) Determine the set of simple ov “rnale applicant” (M). (b) Determine the set of simple outcomes which are used to define the compound event “highest degree of applicant is college degree" (C). prance 45 | Highest Degree ‘omnes which are used to define the compound event i. College High Seboot ‘ Degree Diploma Wo Degree fa 1 fe wy re Male(M) bu 100 40 490 Female (F) 210 510 ‘Total 310189 BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPTS 4 In Exercise 3, determing, for each of the following sete of eventa, whether they are mutually exclusive and/or collectively exhaustive (a) (M, F, Ht) () (C.H,N, MF) (©) (MC, MH, MN, F} (a) (MC, FC, C, HN’ (©) (M4, PC. FH) 5 In Exercise 3, suppose that one applicant ia nalected at random (each having an equal chance of being selected). What ia the probability thatthe applicant selected will (a) bes female, (b) have a high echool diploma as the highest degree, (c) be a male with » dogreea, and (d) be a female with a college degree? © Table 4 .6 indicates some characteristics of 10,000 borrowers from 4 major financial inntitution. Borrowers are citasified according to the type of loan (perwonal or business and level of rink. Suppose that an experiment ia to be conducted where one borrower's account is selected at random. ‘The sample space S for thia experiment consist of the imple 0 S~ (PL, PA, PH, BL, BA, BH), (a) Determine the set of simple autcomes which are used to define the compound event “‘pernona) loan" {P). (b) Determine the set of simple outcomes which are used to define the compoundevent ‘average-risk !oan' (A) Credit Risk Low ‘Type of Risk Average Risk High Rake Lose wo ay (Total Personal (P) 2.400 3,600 1,800 7,600 Business (#) 650 950 800 2,400 Total 4,550 2,400 10,000 7 In Exercise 6, determine, for each of the following seta of events, whether they’ ure mutually exclusive and/or collectively exhauative, (a) (P, L.A, H (0) (PL, BL, PA. BA, H) (©) (PB, HY (d) (B, PL, PR, BL, BH) (@) (PL, BL, PA, BH) 8 In Exercise 6, suppose that one account is selected at random (each having an equal chance of selection). What ie the probability that the account selected will (a) be in the average risk category, (b) be a personal loan. (c) be a business loan in the high-risk eategory, and (d) be & personal loan with a low risk” 9 Child Care Alternatives In 1987, the U.S. Cenaua Bureau estimated that 9.1 million children under age five required primary child care because of employed mothers. Table 44.7 indicates the child care alternatives und the Census Bureau's estimates of une number of children using each type. Ifa child from this group is selected at random, what ia the probability that (a) the child ia eared for in bis or her home, (b) the child eares for himself or herself, {c) the child is cared for at work by the mother? 10 Aging U.S. Population A U.S. Census Buresu study reveals that the average are the population is increasing. The bureau estimates that by the year 2000, there wil’CHAPTER 4 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY THEORY ‘Type of Child Care Number of Children In another home 3,239,600 Day eare/nursery echool 2,220,400 Child cares for self 18,200 Mother cares for child at work 808,900 Care in child's home 2,720,900 Other 91,000 105,6 million houssholds, Table 4 8 indicates projections regarding the age of the head ‘of household. Ifin the vear 2000 « housshold is selected at random, what is the probabil- ity that the head of household will be (a) of age 65 or oldar, (5) of age 25-84, (c) of age 35 ‘or older, and (d) of age 45 or younger? Age of Head of Household Number of Housabolds 15-24 4,224,000 25-34 16,896,000 35-44 24,288,000 45-54 22,176,000 85-64 14,784,000 65 and older 23,232,000 11 Cardiac Care In order to nupport ita request for a cardiac intensive care ‘init, the pergency room at major urban hospital has gathered data on the number of heart attack victims neen. Table 4.9 indicates the probabilities of different numbers of heart attack victims being treated in the emergency roam on a typical day. For a given day, what is the probability that (a) five or fewer victima will be seen, (b) five or more victims will be seen, and (¢} no moro than seven. victims will be seen? amber of Victims Treated (n) Pix) Fewer than § 08 8 16 6 30 7 26 More than 7 20 12 Fire Protection The number of fire alarms pulled each hour Suctuates in particular ry. Analyste have estimated the probability of different numbers of alarms per hour as uhown in Table 4 .10. In any given hou, what ia the probability that (a) more than & sm will be pulled, (b) between 8 and 10 alarma (inclusive) will be pulled, and (c) no more than 9 alarma will be pulled? 13 Acard ia to be drawn at random from a woll-shuted deck, What is the probability thatBASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPTS 191 Pla) Fewer than 8 16 a 2 8 m4 10 28 More than 10 32 the card will be (a) a kingor jack, (b) a face eard (jack, queen, oF king), (c) #7 or a epate, and (d) a face card or a card from a red suit? 14 A aurvey of 2,000 consumers was conducted to determine their purchasing behavici regarding two landing soft drinks. it was found that during the past month 800 perrons had puzebesed brand A, 300 had purchased brand B, and 100 had purchased both brand A and brand B. [fa person in solected at random from this group (assuring equal chance cf salection for each person), what is the probability that the person (a) would have purchased brand A during the past month, (b) would have purchased brand B but not brand A, (c} would have purchased brand A, brand B, or both, and (d) would not have purchased either brand? 15 Vitemnin C Research In recent years there has been much controversy about the possible benefita of using supplemental doses of vitamin C. Claims have been made by proponent of vitamin C that aupplemental doses will reduce the incidence of the common cold and influenza (flu). A teat group of 3,000 persona received supplemental doses of vitamin C for a period of 1 year. During this period it was found thet 800 wuch people had ons or more colds, 250 people muffered from influenza, and 160 people suffered from both colds and influenza. Ifa person in selected at random frou this tent ‘group (assuming equal likelihood of selection), what in the probability that the pervon (a) would have bad one or more colds but not influenza, (b) would have had both oldn ‘and influenza, (c) would have had one or more colds but no influenza, or influenza but 00 colds, and (d) would have suffered neither colds nor influenzae? 16 The sample space for an experiment consists of Sve simple ovents E,. By. E,.E,.and By ‘These events are mutually exclusive. The probabilities of occurrence af these eventa are PAE,) = 20, PUEy) = 15, PUE,) = 25, PUE,) = 80, and P(E,) = .10, Several c pound events can be defined for this experiment. They are | F= (Ei, By Ey) Gm (By, Ey Ey) He (Eu Ey) Determine (a) PUP), (b) PCG), (ch PUL), (d) PIG), (e) PUPUG), (1) P(GUH), (@) POF 8), and (h) PUFNG). 17 The sample space for an experiment consists of four simple events E,, E,, Ey, and £,, which are mutually exclusive, The probabilities of occurrence of these events ure P(E,) = 2, P(E,) = -1, P(E,) = 4, and P(E,) = 3, Several compound events can be defined for this experiment. They include By) Ba (By E.) C= (Ey, Determine (a) P(A), (b) P(A’), (ce) P(B), (d) P(C), (e) PIC), (f) PIAL) (§) PBUC), and (h) PAC),EXAMe 44 CHAPTER 4 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY THEORY STATES OF STATISTICAL INDEPENDENCE AND DEPENDENCE Statistical Independence In addition to our previous classifications, events may be classified as indepen- dent or dependent. DEFINITION: INDEPENDENT &VEATS Tg events are independent if the nectinence vr nme Uren, OF ane event in au way affects the likelilioad far probability! af ecu rein of she other event ‘The outcomes of auccessive flips of a fair coin are’an exampic of independent ‘events. The occurrence of a head or tail on any one Loas of the coin has no effect on the probability of s head or tail on the aext or succeeding toases of the coin, Drawing cards from a deck or balls from: an urn with replacemer: characterized by independent events. “With replacement" mesna that the item selected is put back in the deck or the urn before the next item is selected, In the case of a deck of cards, the probability of drawing a heart on each draw is # ns long ‘aa the previously drawn card ia replaced in the deck. ‘The random generation of acceptable or defective products from a prodvetion process is another example of events which may be statistically independent, For such processes, the probability of generating an acceptable (or defective) unit ta assumed to remain the same for @ given trial regardless of previous outcomes. ‘The simple probability of an event is often called a marginal probability. The marginal probability of a head is .5 when a lair coin is tossed. Assuming a random draw, the marginal probability of selecting a spade from u deck of cazda quale i. Very often there is an interest in computing the probability of two or more eventa occurring at the same time or in succession. For example, we may be interested in the probability of rolling a pair of dice and having a 6 occur on one Jie anda 2on the other; or we may be interested in the likelihood that five beads would occur in five successive tosses of a coin. The probability of the joint occurrence of two or more events is called a joint probability. experiment RULE ‘The join probability that two Inalepyraler\ events Ej yd FW occur oe ethor or ka succession equals the «lust of the rm: li and &, oF PUB, A) By) ~ PUR) PBs) (4.2) ‘The probability that a machine will produceadefective part cquals 06.1t is assumed that the production process is characterized by statistical independence. That ia, the probability of ‘any item being defective is,05, regardless of the quality of previous units. Suppose we wish to determine the probability that two consecutive parts will be defective. Ifthe event D repre sents the occurrence of a defective item, then according to rule 6, P(D, 1.04) = PID, )P\D,) = (,051.05) = 025STATES OF STATISTICAL INDEPENDENCE AND DEPENDENCE 193 (Fund-Raising) A university has started using phonathons as a major way of soliciting donations from alumni. The vice president for development estimates that the probability an alumnus, contacted by phone, will contribute in.24. Given two bucceesive contacts, what in the probability that: (a) The first contacted elumnus will contribute and the second not? (8) The first will not contribute but the second will? (c) Both will contribute? (d) Neither will contribute? SOLUTION If the event C representa the occurrence of a contribution, the event C’ representa the nonaccurrence of a contribution (a) P(C, Cj) = PIC,) + PACS) = (.24)(1 = 24) = (24)(.78) = .1n24- (0) PC} OC,) = PIC}) - PIC.) = (.18)(.24) = 1824 1C,) - P(C;) = (.24)(-24) 0678 (d) PUCLMC;) = PIC) + PICS) = (.76)(.76) = 5776 (© Pl PRACTICE EXERCISE Draw a tree diagram to enumerate all possible outcomes associated with mak- ing two consecutive contacts with alumni. Did we enumerate all possible out- comes in our example? Sum the four probabilities we computed. Is there any significance ta your answer? RULE 7 ‘The joint probability that m independent events Ey, &. . E, will occur Aoggether oor in succession is PRE, ~ OB) = PRE PIE) << PLE) (413) (IRS Audit; Motivating Scenario) The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) estimates the probability of an error on personal income tax returns to be 4. Suppose that. an experiment is condveted in which three returns are selected at random for purposes of an audit, and we with to determine all possible outcomes and the probabilities of these outeomes. ‘A too! which is useful in problems such as this is a probability tree. A probability tree ise type of tree diagram which enumerates all possible outcomes in an experiment and their | probabilities of occurrence. Figure 4 19 illustrates the probability tree for this experiment. Let E, represent the outcome “error” for the ith trial and N, the outcome “no error for the ith194 CHAPTER 4 INTRODUCTION 70 PROBABILITY THEORY Figure 4 19 stabs 3 Third return lace Probability tree for IRS example trial” For the firat return selected, the two circles indicate the marginal probabilities of the two simple events which are possible. For the second return selected. the four circlen indicate the joint probabilities of the} different outcomes possible when selecting two returns. Lf wo assume that the outcomes for] successive selections (trinla) are independent, the probabilities of the different joint eventa| for two selected returns can be computed using rule 6. For example, P(E, N,) = P(E, PUN;STATES OF STATISTICAL INDEPENDENCE AND DEPENDENCE For the third return selected, the eight circlen indicate the joint probabilities of the differont outcomes possible when selecting three returns. These probabilitior can be com: pated using rule 7. For example, PLE, FN, 184) = PUB, IPC m= (.4)(8)( A) = .096 Note in Fig. 4,19 that for each trial the mum of the j because the set of events identified is collectively exhaustive ond rau PRACTICE EXERCISE Using the probability tree in Fig. 13.19, determine the probability that (2) two of three returns contain errors and (b) the three retums contain at least one error, Ansiver: 2) 286, ad (b) 784 In addition to marginal and joint probabilities, another type of probability is a conditional probability. The notation P(E,|E;) represents the conditional prob ability of event E, given that event &, has occurred. The probability of a head on the third toss of a coin, given that the first two tosses both cesulted in a head, is a conditional probability. By definition, however, independent events have the property that the occur Fence of nonoceurrence of one event has no influence on the probability of another event. MULE 8 Given two independen| events &, By wives that event £, Nas 0 nd Aa, the conditional protability of event s the marginal probability af £3, oF PURE.) = PUE,) (4.18) The conditional probability of a 6 on the roll of a die given that no 6s have ‘occurred in the last 20 rolls equals {, For the IRS example, the probability that the next return selected contains an error equals .4, regardiess of the outeoines from previous income tax returns examined. Statistical Dependence In contrast to the state of statistical independence, many events are characterized us being statiatically dependent DEFINITION: DEPENDENT BYENTS Teh events an ependent ir fle probability of occurence of orw event is af- fected hy thie Hecriricnce on KoAmseurrence of Ihe other event196 J raver asi No Some Regular Exercite Exercise CHAPTER 4 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY THEORY Examples of experiments consisting of dependent events include drawi cards from a deck or balls from an urn without replacement. If a card is velect which is not a heart and the card is kept out of the deck, the probability of selectis 4 heart on the next draw is not the same as it was for the first "draw. Given t following events related to weather conditions, Event E, = it will snow Event E, ~ the temperature will be below freezing the probability of event B, is affected by the occurrence ar nonoccurrence of eve! Ey, The following examples illustrate the computation of probabilities under co ditions of statistical dependence. Exercise re Re ary gy total Heart disease (HD) 700 300 100 1,100 No heart dinoase (HD) 1,300 6,600 1,000 8,900 Total 2,000 6,900 1,100 10,000 A nationwide survey of 10,000 middle-aged men resulted in the data shown in Table 13.11. J is believed that the resulta from this aurvey of 10,000 men are representative of the: particular attributes for the average middle-aged man in thie country, We can estimat probabilities related to heart disease and exercine habits baxed upon relative frequencies a occurrence in the survey. For example, the probability that a middle-aged man gets ni exercise is ad do no exercise ‘number of men surveyed 10,000 The probability that a middle-aged man has heart disease is number of respondents having heart disease Pub) = posta \ number of men surveyed ‘The joint probability thet « midelle aged man exe 1 regularly and has heart disesse io| +) 100 PUD RE) == 01 Suppose we are interested in the conditional probability that « man will suffer fro1ENCE 197 STATES OF STATISTICAL INDEPENDENCE AND DEPE? haart diseuse given that be doés not exercise. The given information focuses our attentions ‘upon the firat column in Table 4 .11, those respondents who do not exercise. Of the 2,000 surveyed who do not exercise, 700 wuler heart disease, Therefore, tbe conditional probebil: ity in computed as number of respondenta who do not not exercine ‘The conditional probability that « man exercises regularly given that ha suffers heart disease is umber of respondanta who exercise regularly and suffer heart disease SERVE) a umber of respondents who suffer heart disease Q Conditional probabilities under conditions of statistical dependence can be computed using the following rule. RULE 9 ‘The conditional probability of event E, given the occurrence of event Ey is POEL Es) HE) PEE) = (4.15) The conditional probability is found by dividing the joint probability of events Ey and E; by the marginal probability of E Indirectly, we were using Eq. ( 4.15) when computing the conditional proba bilities in Example 31. Applying Eq, ( 4,15) in that example, we get PUID ANE) PUHDINE) = 700/10,000 _ .07 = 7,000710,000 ~ :20~ P(RE MHD) P(HD) 100/10,000__ 01 = {,100/10,000 ~ six ~'°° a5 and P(RE|HD) =198 CHAPTER 4 INTROOUCTION T PROBABILITY THEORY Supposs that a person selects a card at random from « deck of 52 carda and tells ua that tht selected card is red. The probebility that the card is the king of hearts given that it in red c be determined oaing Eq. (13,15) Pilking of boarta (red) Pking of heartajred) = ica Pred) If both sides of Eq. (19.16) are multiplied by P(B,), the resulting equatior provides an expreasion for the joint probability P(E, E,), or PIB, NE) PUBIPUB IE) (4.16) SPREE The joint probability of selecting two none in « row ftom a deck without replacement of the frat card can be found using Bq, (4.16) an P(A, 7.A,) = Ploce on firet draw) - P(ace on second draw given an ace on firat draw) = P(A,)P(AYA,) ea dy A large jar contains eight red balla, aix yellow balla, and xix blue balls. Two balls are to be| BB selected at random from the jar. Asaume that each ball in the jar haa an equal chance of beis selected and that the first ball selected will not be placed back into the jar. (a) What is the probability that (he first ball will be red and the second yellow? (b) What is the probability that both balla will be biue? (c) What in the probability that neither will be red” SOLUTION Selecting balla from a jar without replacement is un experiment characterized by statistical dependence (a) Using Eq. (13.16) gives POR, Y4) = PUR) » POY) sh arent (b) P(B, 1) By) = P(B,) + P(ByB,) ~e hk (e) It wo let Rj represent the event “selection of « nonred ball on the jth draw,” PAR, OR) = PUR)» PURGR() “ean (Terrorist Activities) A terrorist group operating within a foreign country has made @ threat to destroy certain airplanes unless its demands are satisfied. ‘They claim to have placed bombs on 3 of 20 planes curently on the ground at # major airport. All passengers andSTATES OF STATISTICAL INDEPENDENCE AND DEPEKDENCE, 199 crews have been evacuated and a bomb squad is about to begin ita search of the planes. Of interest ia the probsbility that the first 3 planes searched will be the 3 affected planes. 1A denotes the selection of an affected plane and N the valection of « nonatfected plane, we are interested in P(A, 0 A, Ay). The probability that the first 2plauee selected are affected is computed aa P(A, Vg) = AAs) * PLAY) “bh ba ‘The probability that the frst 3 piance selected are the affected ones is found ua PIA, 9A, Ay) = P(A, Ay)» PAYA, Ay) hands PRACTICE EXERCISE Whaat is the probability that a random selection of 4 planes will result in the utcome Ay Nyy Ag? answer 102/116,280 = 1/1140. | (Space Shuttle Simulation) While the space shuttle flights were being prepared, one contingency anticipated wea replacement of dafective components while in apace. One acenario aimulated suggested that of 10 fuel cells of « particular type used on & mission, 3 hecome defective while in flight. Suppose that it is impousible to know which 3 are defective. ‘The only way of identifying the dafective cella ix to remove them and tost them with on-board equipment. If the cells are selected at random, (a) construct a probability tree ‘which summarizes the possible outcomes from selecting 3 celis and testing them. (b) What ia the probability that none of the defective cells will be included in the sample of 37 One defective cell” Two dafective cells? All 3? SOLUTION (a) If we let D, and N, represent defective and nondefective outcomes for the jth cell selected, Fig. 4 20 presents the probability tree summarizing the possible outcomes from selecting 3 cella. Note that the events described in thia problem are statistically dependent. Also, note that the sum of the probabilities for all outcomes nasociated with each trial equals L. Finally, in an experiment: consisting of 3 trial (3 fuel calls nelocted), there are 8 different outcomes possible. (b) The probability that noue of the defective cella will be selected corresponds to the ‘outcome N, N,iNs, which has a probability of Rf. The probability of 1 defective cell being selected corresponds to the outcomes 1), Ny Ny..N,D,N,. and N,NqD,. The sum of the probabilities for thowe outcomes equals 3(f) = J. The probability of 2 defective celle being selected corresponds to the outcomes Dy DyNy,.D,1%sDs, anxd N; DyD,, The sum of | the probabilities for these outcomes equals 3( 4) = #. Finally. the probability of all 8 defective cells being identified corresponds to outcome D,D,D, which has «probability of oe QCHAPTER 4 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY THEORY | First ot ptected Second col cand Third ea steed |, | | 1 Figure 4.20 Probability tree for space shuttle example. Section 4-4 Follow-up Exercises 1 The probability that a machine will produce a defective part equals 15. 1f the process ia characterized by statistical independence, what is the probability that (a) two items in succesaion will not be defective, (b) the first three itema are not defective and the fourth is defective, and (c) five consecutive itema will not be defoctive? 2 TRS Audit An income tax z»tur can be audited by the federal government and/or bySTATES OF STATISTICAL INDEPENDENCE AND DEPENDENCE 20t the state. The probability that an individual tax return will be audited by the federal government is 03. The probabilicy that it will be audited by the state ia.04. Assume that audit decisions are made independent of one another at the federal and state levels (a) What is the probability of being audited by both agencien” (6) What is the probability of « state audit but not a federal audit? (©) What is the probability of not being audited? 3 A coin in weighted much that P(H) = 45 and P(T) = 55, Construct @ probability tree denoting all possible outcomes if the coin is tosed three times. What is the probability of two tails in three tonsea? ‘Two heade’? 4 Five cards are selected at random from a deck of 52. If the drawn carda are not replaced in the deck, what ia the probability of selecting an ace, king, ace, jack, and ace, in that order? Raxponse Respondent Age Very Likely Likely —Unllkely Total 20-29 850 1,700 500 3,060 30-39 700 1,100 450 2,250 40 and over 600 600 1.500 2,700 Total 2,160 3400 2,450 8,000 5 Table 4 \2summarizes the results of a recent survey of attitudes regarding nuclear war. ‘The question asked was, “How likely do you beliave it is that « nuclear war will occur during the next 10 years?” If « respondent is selected at random from the sample of £8,000, what are the following probabilities? (a) The respondent is 30 years or older {b) ‘The respondent believes nuclear war is “likely {c) The respondent in between the ages of 0 and 39 and believen that nuclear war ix “very likely.” (a) The respondent ia between the ages of 20 and 39 and helieves that nuclear war is “unlikely.” (©) The respondent believes that auclear war is “unlikely,” given that he or she is hbotween the ages of 20 and 29 (/) The respondent in 40 years of age or older, given that he orshe believes nuclear war in “unlikely.” 6 A television game show contestant has earned the opportunity to win some prizes. The contestant is shown 10 boxes, 4 of which contain prizes. Ifthe contestant is allowed to fject any 4 of the bores, what is the probability that (a) four prizes will be selected, (b) no prizes will be selected, and (c} the firwt 8 boxes selected contain no prizes but the 4th box does? 7 For the previous exercise, draw a probability tree which summarizes the different ovt ‘comes possible when selecting 4 boxes at random and their associnted probabilities. What in the probability chat at least one prize will be won? Bxactly one prize? 8 Refer to Example 34, Construct a probability tree which summarizes all outcomes and their probabilities for the aalection of two balls jiven that cards are aclected at random, without replacement, from a standard 52-cerd deck, detersifte the probability that (a) the first 2 cards are hearta, (b) the first is « spade, the second a club, the thied « heart, and the fourth @ diamond, (c) 3 aces are elected in n row, and (d) no aces are included in the first 4 cards. 10 A gradunting class consists of 52 percent women and 48 percent men. Of the men, 20 a202 CHAPTER 4 INTRODUCTION To PROBAS Y THEORY percent are engineering majors Ifa graduate |e selected at random from the class, what i the probability the student is a male engineering major? A male majoring in vomne. thing other than engineeri ____ Current Disease Heart Cancer Diabetes Total Family history 390 a0 1,700 No family history 920 760 620 2,300 Total 1200 1,200 1,000 4,000 11 Table 4.13 summarizes the revulte of s recent health survey. Persons who were muffer ing from heart disease, cancer, or diabeton wore asked whether there had beon any known history of the disanno in their family. Ifa person is nelected at random from this ‘sample of 4,000, what ix the probebility that: (a) The perwon has cancer? (b) The parson had # family history of their particular disaase? (@). The person hea cancer and bad no family bintory of the dinense? (@) The person has diabetes, given that the person velected haw a family history of their disease. (e) ‘The person has no family history of the disease, given that the person selected haa heart dissase = | __ Product 2 Product’ Total ‘Acceptable 380 204 ne Unacceptable 24 40 26 90 Tetal 180 390 230 800 12 A sample of 800 parts has been selectad from three product lines and inspected by the quality control department. Table 4 .14 summarizes the results of the inspection. If a partis selected at random from this sample, what is the probability that (a) ‘The part in of the product 1 type? (0) ‘The part is unacceptable? (©) ‘The part is an acceptable unit of product 3? (d) ‘The part is an unacceptable unit of product 1? (@) The part is acceptable, given tbat the selected part is a unit of product 27 (/) ‘The part in product 1, given that the elected part is acceptable? (a) ‘The part is product 3, given that the selected part ix unacceptable? 13 A pool of applicants for n welding job connists of 30 percent women and 70 percent men. Of the women, 60 percent have college degrees. Of the men, 40 percent have callege degrees, What is the probability thnt a randomly selected applicant will be (a) a woman with a college degree and (b) « man without a college degree? 14 Suppose that and F are events where P() = 4, PUP) = 3, and P(E U F) = 6. De- termine (a) PEM), (b) PUBLP), and (c) PURE). 1 Suppose that G and H are events where P(G) = .25, PH) ~ 45, and P(G UH) = 56. Determine (a) P(G 71H), (6) P(G|R), and (e) PUIG).IMPORTANT FORMULA’ Q IMPORTANT FORMULAS »P,=nt »P,= nin = W(n— 2) (n= r+ 1) O PUE,) (independence) P(E\\E,)=P(E,) (independence) P(BAIE, (dependence) PUBL: = P(E,)P(E,\Ey) (4.3) (a .B) (4.9) (4 (4 ey (4 (4 “4 10) 11) +12) 13) 14) 15)204 CHAPTER 4 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY THEORY Q ADDITIONAL EXERCISES Section 4.1 1 Redefine set A using the descriptive property method ift (0) A= (he ted 1, 24 8, 16, 92) (©) A=( 413, 9, 27, 81) (©) A= (.001, .01, .1, 1, 10, 100, 1000) (d) A= (1, 4, 27, 256, 3125) 2 Given ‘U~ (a/x in an integer greater than —8 but lean than +9) A= (ola is an even positive integer less than 18) B= (b6 odd integer greater than —5 but less than +4) (a) Define A’ (®) Define B’ 3 If consints of all atudants enrolled in courses at # university, A consiste of all male students, B consista of all stu lenta aged 35 years or over, and C consiata of all engineer. img students, (a) define the set A’, (b) define the set 8’, and (c) define the set C’. 4 If % consists of the different total scores possible on the roll of « consiste of the scores of 3, 5, and 7, detine B, oir of dice and B! U= (1, 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10) B= (1,9,5,7,9) A=(1,5,9) C= (2, 4, 6,8, 10) define all subset relationships which exist for these sets, 6 Draw a Venn diagram representing all the sets in Exercise 6. 7 Ten residents of « city were surveyed regarding their use of public transportation in that city. They were asked whether they had ridden the subway (S), the bus (B), or neither (N) during the past year. ‘The responses were as follows Resident 1 2 1 Response =N N B BS S BS o e Draw a Venn diagram which summarizes how all residents responded to the survey. & Given the following sets, determine whether any sets are equal. Am (alr"+ 6r°+ 9x" 0) Be (xix? + 3x=0) ' C= (20) D=(-3,0,3)Figure 4.2 ADDITIONAL EXERCISES 205 9 Given the sets 4% = (£\x in a positive integer less than 20) A = (5, 10, 15) B= (2,4,6,8, 10) C= (1,5, 9, 15, 17) find: (@) Ane () AUBUC te) Arne {d) A'UC’ (@) AnBnc (MAUR (AB (hy (An Bey 10 In Fig. 19.21, the numborn represent the number of elements contained in the various subsets, Determine: (a) nA) (b) (AUB) (ce) n'AUBUC) (d) nt) fe) n(A’UB) () BNC) (@) niBNC) (A) nian ane) Section 4 2 11 A gumne consists of Bipping a coin, followed by rolling a die. Draw a tree diagram which enumerates all possible outcomes for the game. 12 Stock Market Analysis A brokerage house analyzes market trends by selecting samples of stocks from different industries and noting from the previous days’ trading whether there waa no change in the price, a decrease in price, of an increase in the price of the stock. Lf two stocks are selected sequentially, draw a decision tree which enumer- ates all possible outcomes. 13 A used car wholesaler has agents who locate used cary and evaluate them for purposes of purchasing and reselling. The agents classify cars by size (full, medium, compact, and mubcoropact), age (0-2 vears, 2-4 years, 4~6 years, and over 6 years), relative mileage for the age of the car (very high, high, average, below-average), and body condition (excellent, good, fair, and poor). Using the fundamental counting principle, dotarmine the number of possible automobile classifications. 14 The wis steward at # gourmet restaurant is preparing to select wines for & special dinner, Four wines will be served during the evening. One wine will be served with the appetizer. Three choices are available for thia wine, Four wines are being conaidered for serving with the salad. Five wines are being considered for the entree and three for after206 CHAPTER 4 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY THEORY the dinner, How many possible combinations of wines could be considered for this meal? Evaluate the following factorial expressions at °-e-a 86! val Bl ojsi2t ou! 18 20! 1618! 24 Pim 26 ,P,- 28 Py= ¢ so()- 7 x (;) 8 as (8) 96 A basketball cosch has been frustrated in not being able to find the best 5 players to have in his starting lineup. There ere 15 players on the team. If we assume that any of the 15 players can be selected for any of the five different positions in the starting Ikneip, how musty diferent Baia ary pousieeY 36 A political candidate wishes to vinit six different citios. In how many different orders can the candidate visit thesa cities? 22 37 How many different telephone numbers can be dialed (or pushed) with a three-digit ‘area code and a seven-digit regional number? (Assume 10 possible numbers for each digit.) 38 An automobile dealer has eight different car models. The dealer can display only four in the showroom. How many different combinations of ears can the dealer select for the showroorn? *39 Olympic Tryouts The Olympic basketball selection committee has cut the aquad to 30 players. The head conch has decided that his final squad of 12 players should consist of 3 centers, 5 forwards, and 4 guards, Of the 30 remaining players, B are centers, 13 are forwards, and 9 are guards. How many different 12-player squads can be considered”ADDITIONAL EXERCISES 207 Section 4. 40 Table 4.16 indicavos some data gathered on a group of ,000 victima of robbery, burglary, or hoth. Victims are classified as residential or business victims and by type of crime(a) commited. Suppope that « victim ia selectad at random from the 3,000. The sample spoce $ for this experiment consists of the simple outcomes $ = (R/RV, R/BY, R/RB, B/RV, B/BV, B/RB), (a) Determine the set of cisple outcomes used to define the compound event “victim of robbery, only {b) Determine the set of burglary.” Eazy (am) ay) ar) Robbery aad Robbery Victin Burglary Victim _Berglary Vietim Total mes used to define the compound event “vietim Residence (R) 250 1,200 450 1,900 Business (5) 400 50) 450 1,100 Total 650 1.400 00 3,000 41 In Exercise 40, determine, for each of the following sata of events, whetber they are mutually exclusive and/or collectively exhaustive (0) (R/RV, B/RV, BV, BB) (b) (B/RV, B/BV, B/. RV, BY) (e) (R, B, RV, RB) (2) (R/RV, B/RV, R/BYV, RB 42 In Exercine 40, suppose that one victim ix selected at random from thia group. What is the probability thot the victim will (a) be a residential victim, (b) be a victim of robbery only, (c) be a commercial victim of both robbery and burglary? 43 The probability that on applicant for pilot school will be admitted is 3. If three applicants are solectad et random, what ie the probability that (a) all three will be admitted, (b) none will be admitted, and (c) only one will be admitted? 44 A student eatimaten the probpbility of receiving an A in « course at 3 und the probabil: ity of receiving a B at .4, What is (he probability that the student (a) will not receive an ‘A, (b) will not reesive @ B, and (c) will receive neither an A nor a B? 46 Soviet Religion Table 4.16 reflects the religioun preferences of pernons living in the Soviet Union during the mid-1980v.* If « Soviet person were selected at random daring the mid-1980s, what ix the probability that the person (a) would be atheist or nonre- ligious, (b) would practice some form of religion, (c) would be Protestant, Catholic, or Jew, and (d) would be « non-Muslim? 46 Anum contains § gresn- dotted balla, 10 green-striped balla, 12 blue-dotted balls, and LO blve-striped balls. [fn ball isaslectad at random from thourn, what is the probability that the ball will be (a) green oF ntriped, (6) dotted, (c) blue or dotted? * Source: World Chriatian Encyclopedia208 CHAPTER 4 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY THEORY Religious Preference Number of Persons, Millions Orthodox oy Muslin 0 Protestant 8 Catholic 5 Jew 3 Other religions 1 Atbeints oF nonreligious 137 47 Credit Ratings A credit-rating agency rates a person's credit standing as “excel- lent," “good,” "fair," ot “poor.” The probability that n person will have an excellent rating is 20. The probability of a good rating ia .35, What is the probability that a ‘person (a) will not have an excellent rating, (b) will not have at least « good rating, and (c) will have no better than a good rating? 48 Wine Cooler Preferences A survey of 2,400 consumers was conducted to determine their purchasing behavior regarding two leading wine coolers, It was found that during the past summer 600 had purchased brand A, 400 had purchased brand B, and 100 had purchased both brands A and B. Ifa person is selected at random from this group, what i the probability that the person (a) would have purchased brand A, (b) would have purchased brand A but not brand B, (c) would have parchased brand A, brand B, or oth, and (4) would not have purchased either brand? 49 Home Run Production Table 4 .17 indicates some data gathered by the baseball commissioner's office. Indicated in the table is the number of home runs hit in a single baseball game and the probability of that number being hit. If x game in selected at random, what in the probability (a) that no more than three home runs will be hit, (8) that at least one home run will be hit, c) that fower than five home runs will be hit, and (d) that between one and three home runs (inclusive) will be bit’? Home Rens /Game, (n) tx) 0 12 1 a8 2 26 a 22 4 12 More than 4 10 Section 4.4 50 ‘The probability that a customer entering a particular store will make a purchase in 40. If two customers enter the store, what in the probability that (a) they will both mak purchase, (b) neither will make a purchase, and (c) precisely one of the two will maken purchase”53 A ball is selected at random from an urn containing three red-striped balls, eight solid CHAPTER TEST 51 A single die is rolled and each side bas an equal cbance of occurring. What ix the probability of rolling four consecutive 6a? 52 In the previous exercise, what is the probability that the (our rolls will result in the same outcome each time? red ball six yellow-striped balls, four solid yellow balls, and four blue-striped balls. (a) What is the probability that the ball is yellow, given that it is striped? (®) What ia the probability that the ball is striped, given that it in red? {c) What is the probability that the ball ix bluo, given that it is solid-colored? 54 The probability that the price of « particular stock will increase during a business day is 4, Lfthe nature of the change in price on any day is independent of what has happened ‘on previous days, what is the probability that the price will (a) increase 4 days in # row, (0) remain the same or decrease ‘J days in a row, and (c) increase 2 days out of 37 55 Suppoos that E and F are events and P(E) = 2, P(F) ~ .5, and P(E U F) = .60. De- termine (a) PLE F), (6) P(B\F), and {e) PUPIE), O CHAPTER TEST Given the sets A = (1, 2,3, 4,5, 6, 7, 8), B = (—2, 0, 2, 4, 6,8, 10), and C= (—3, =1, 0, 1, 2, 3), determine the sets: (a) ANB (b) AN BNC (c) AUBNC ‘What is the difference between the states of statistical independence and statis- tical dependence? A grocer hns display space for three products. He bas six products that he would like to display. (a) How many different arrangements of three producta can be made? (b) How many different combinations of the six products could he put on dis- play? What is the probability of drawing three cards, without replacement, froma deck of cards and getting three kings? An urn contains 18 red balls, 14 red-atriped balls, 16 yellow balla, and 12 yellow. striped balls (a) Given that a ball selected from the urn iv striped, what is the probability it is yellow? (b) Given that a ball selected from the urn is not striped, what is the probability it is red?210 HAUTE INTRODUCTION TO PRONABILITY. THEORY THE BIRTHDAY PROBLEM A.cclassic application of prohability theory relates to the likelihood, within a gr persons, that (wo or more have the same birthday. The probability that pernons have the same hirthday obviously depends upon the size of the group « persons considered. The larger the group, the higher the probability. Let's m some assumptions related to this problem. Assume that there are 365 differ birthday poasibilitivs (which ignores leap year) and that for any given person, the days are equally likely to be the person's birthday, ‘To determine the probability that two or more persons within # group have the same birthday, it i# easier to compute the probability that no two persons have the same birthday. Think about this fora moment. The event “two or more persons have the same birthday” cunaists of many poasibilities. These possibilities must account for “three or m tc, They must also account for subse persons having the same birthdays (e.g., two persons born on January 5 and three Thus, if one can determine the probability p that no two persons haye the same birthday, the desired probability can be computed as 1 — p fen & group Of n persons, selected at random, the number of different birthday matcomes is pel persons born on April 26 T = (46596501365) « - -(366) = (365)"MINICASR: THE BIRTHDAY PM 2 If, within this group of n persons, no two have the same birthday, there must be n different birth dates. The number of different outcomes which satinfy this event is computed ar U= (365)(364)(363 365~n +1 Thus, the probability that, within the group of n persons, no two persons have the birthday equals Q _ (365)(964)(363) 365—n+1 T (a65y Required behind thi b. Discus the | putation of T ic behind the c 18 will have the same birthday in y that tw c, Compute the probabili 8 group of five ran 1 more pers omly selected persons. Compute the same probabilit! 20, 30, 40, and 50 persons c. What is the ssallest group of persons for which the probability of two or more having the same birthday exceeds 50? Exceeds 75’