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1429 - Unit - 4 - AIOU PDF
1429 - Unit - 4 - AIOU PDF
PUE,) (independence) P(E\\E,)=P(E,) (independence) P(BAIE, (dependence) PUBL: = P(E,)P(E,\Ey) (4.3) (a .B) (4.9) (4 (4 ey (4 (4 “4 10) 11) +12) 13) 14) 15)204 CHAPTER 4 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY THEORY Q ADDITIONAL EXERCISES Section 4.1 1 Redefine set A using the descriptive property method ift (0) A= (he ted 1, 24 8, 16, 92) (©) A=( 413, 9, 27, 81) (©) A= (.001, .01, .1, 1, 10, 100, 1000) (d) A= (1, 4, 27, 256, 3125) 2 Given ‘U~ (a/x in an integer greater than —8 but lean than +9) A= (ola is an even positive integer less than 18) B= (b6 odd integer greater than —5 but less than +4) (a) Define A’ (®) Define B’ 3 If consints of all atudants enrolled in courses at # university, A consiste of all male students, B consista of all stu lenta aged 35 years or over, and C consiata of all engineer. img students, (a) define the set A’, (b) define the set 8’, and (c) define the set C’. 4 If % consists of the different total scores possible on the roll of « consiste of the scores of 3, 5, and 7, detine B, oir of dice and B! U= (1, 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10) B= (1,9,5,7,9) A=(1,5,9) C= (2, 4, 6,8, 10) define all subset relationships which exist for these sets, 6 Draw a Venn diagram representing all the sets in Exercise 6. 7 Ten residents of « city were surveyed regarding their use of public transportation in that city. They were asked whether they had ridden the subway (S), the bus (B), or neither (N) during the past year. ‘The responses were as follows Resident 1 2 1 Response =N N B BS S BS o e Draw a Venn diagram which summarizes how all residents responded to the survey. & Given the following sets, determine whether any sets are equal. Am (alr"+ 6r°+ 9x" 0) Be (xix? + 3x=0) ' C= (20) D=(-3,0,3)Figure 4.2 ADDITIONAL EXERCISES 205 9 Given the sets 4% = (£\x in a positive integer less than 20) A = (5, 10, 15) B= (2,4,6,8, 10) C= (1,5, 9, 15, 17) find: (@) Ane () AUBUC te) Arne {d) A'UC’ (@) AnBnc (MAUR (AB (hy (An Bey 10 In Fig. 19.21, the numborn represent the number of elements contained in the various subsets, Determine: (a) nA) (b) (AUB) (ce) n'AUBUC) (d) nt) fe) n(A’UB) () BNC) (@) niBNC) (A) nian ane) Section 4 2 11 A gumne consists of Bipping a coin, followed by rolling a die. Draw a tree diagram which enumerates all possible outcomes for the game. 12 Stock Market Analysis A brokerage house analyzes market trends by selecting samples of stocks from different industries and noting from the previous days’ trading whether there waa no change in the price, a decrease in price, of an increase in the price of the stock. Lf two stocks are selected sequentially, draw a decision tree which enumer- ates all possible outcomes. 13 A used car wholesaler has agents who locate used cary and evaluate them for purposes of purchasing and reselling. The agents classify cars by size (full, medium, compact, and mubcoropact), age (0-2 vears, 2-4 years, 4~6 years, and over 6 years), relative mileage for the age of the car (very high, high, average, below-average), and body condition (excellent, good, fair, and poor). Using the fundamental counting principle, dotarmine the number of possible automobile classifications. 14 The wis steward at # gourmet restaurant is preparing to select wines for & special dinner, Four wines will be served during the evening. One wine will be served with the appetizer. Three choices are available for thia wine, Four wines are being conaidered for serving with the salad. Five wines are being considered for the entree and three for after206 CHAPTER 4 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY THEORY the dinner, How many possible combinations of wines could be considered for this meal? Evaluate the following factorial expressions at °-e-a 86! val Bl ojsi2t ou! 18 20! 1618! 24 Pim 26 ,P,- 28 Py= ¢ so()- 7 x (;) 8 as (8) 96 A basketball cosch has been frustrated in not being able to find the best 5 players to have in his starting lineup. There ere 15 players on the team. If we assume that any of the 15 players can be selected for any of the five different positions in the starting Ikneip, how musty diferent Baia ary pousieeY 36 A political candidate wishes to vinit six different citios. In how many different orders can the candidate visit thesa cities? 22 37 How many different telephone numbers can be dialed (or pushed) with a three-digit ‘area code and a seven-digit regional number? (Assume 10 possible numbers for each digit.) 38 An automobile dealer has eight different car models. The dealer can display only four in the showroom. How many different combinations of ears can the dealer select for the showroorn? *39 Olympic Tryouts The Olympic basketball selection committee has cut the aquad to 30 players. The head conch has decided that his final squad of 12 players should consist of 3 centers, 5 forwards, and 4 guards, Of the 30 remaining players, B are centers, 13 are forwards, and 9 are guards. How many different 12-player squads can be considered”ADDITIONAL EXERCISES 207 Section 4. 40 Table 4.16 indicavos some data gathered on a group of ,000 victima of robbery, burglary, or hoth. Victims are classified as residential or business victims and by type of crime(a) commited. Suppope that « victim ia selectad at random from the 3,000. The sample spoce $ for this experiment consists of the simple outcomes $ = (R/RV, R/BY, R/RB, B/RV, B/BV, B/RB), (a) Determine the set of cisple outcomes used to define the compound event “victim of robbery, only {b) Determine the set of burglary.” Eazy (am) ay) ar) Robbery aad Robbery Victin Burglary Victim _Berglary Vietim Total mes used to define the compound event “vietim Residence (R) 250 1,200 450 1,900 Business (5) 400 50) 450 1,100 Total 650 1.400 00 3,000 41 In Exercise 40, determine, for each of the following sata of events, whetber they are mutually exclusive and/or collectively exhaustive (0) (R/RV, B/RV, BV, BB) (b) (B/RV, B/BV, B/. RV, BY) (e) (R, B, RV, RB) (2) (R/RV, B/RV, R/BYV, RB 42 In Exercine 40, suppose that one victim ix selected at random from thia group. What is the probability thot the victim will (a) be a residential victim, (b) be a victim of robbery only, (c) be a commercial victim of both robbery and burglary? 43 The probability that on applicant for pilot school will be admitted is 3. If three applicants are solectad et random, what ie the probability that (a) all three will be admitted, (b) none will be admitted, and (c) only one will be admitted? 44 A student eatimaten the probpbility of receiving an A in « course at 3 und the probabil: ity of receiving a B at .4, What is (he probability that the student (a) will not receive an ‘A, (b) will not reesive @ B, and (c) will receive neither an A nor a B? 46 Soviet Religion Table 4.16 reflects the religioun preferences of pernons living in the Soviet Union during the mid-1980v.* If « Soviet person were selected at random daring the mid-1980s, what ix the probability that the person (a) would be atheist or nonre- ligious, (b) would practice some form of religion, (c) would be Protestant, Catholic, or Jew, and (d) would be « non-Muslim? 46 Anum contains § gresn- dotted balla, 10 green-striped balla, 12 blue-dotted balls, and LO blve-striped balls. [fn ball isaslectad at random from thourn, what is the probability that the ball will be (a) green oF ntriped, (6) dotted, (c) blue or dotted? * Source: World Chriatian Encyclopedia208 CHAPTER 4 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY THEORY Religious Preference Number of Persons, Millions Orthodox oy Muslin 0 Protestant 8 Catholic 5 Jew 3 Other religions 1 Atbeints oF nonreligious 137 47 Credit Ratings A credit-rating agency rates a person's credit standing as “excel- lent," “good,” "fair," ot “poor.” The probability that n person will have an excellent rating is 20. The probability of a good rating ia .35, What is the probability that a ‘person (a) will not have an excellent rating, (b) will not have at least « good rating, and (c) will have no better than a good rating? 48 Wine Cooler Preferences A survey of 2,400 consumers was conducted to determine their purchasing behavior regarding two leading wine coolers, It was found that during the past summer 600 had purchased brand A, 400 had purchased brand B, and 100 had purchased both brands A and B. Ifa person is selected at random from this group, what i the probability that the person (a) would have purchased brand A, (b) would have purchased brand A but not brand B, (c) would have parchased brand A, brand B, or oth, and (4) would not have purchased either brand? 49 Home Run Production Table 4 .17 indicates some data gathered by the baseball commissioner's office. Indicated in the table is the number of home runs hit in a single baseball game and the probability of that number being hit. If x game in selected at random, what in the probability (a) that no more than three home runs will be hit, (8) that at least one home run will be hit, c) that fower than five home runs will be hit, and (d) that between one and three home runs (inclusive) will be bit’? Home Rens /Game, (n) tx) 0 12 1 a8 2 26 a 22 4 12 More than 4 10 Section 4.4 50 ‘The probability that a customer entering a particular store will make a purchase in 40. If two customers enter the store, what in the probability that (a) they will both mak purchase, (b) neither will make a purchase, and (c) precisely one of the two will maken purchase”53 A ball is selected at random from an urn containing three red-striped balls, eight solid CHAPTER TEST 51 A single die is rolled and each side bas an equal cbance of occurring. What ix the probability of rolling four consecutive 6a? 52 In the previous exercise, what is the probability that the (our rolls will result in the same outcome each time? red ball six yellow-striped balls, four solid yellow balls, and four blue-striped balls. (a) What is the probability that the ball is yellow, given that it is striped? (®) What ia the probability that the ball is striped, given that it in red? {c) What is the probability that the ball ix bluo, given that it is solid-colored? 54 The probability that the price of « particular stock will increase during a business day is 4, Lfthe nature of the change in price on any day is independent of what has happened ‘on previous days, what is the probability that the price will (a) increase 4 days in # row, (0) remain the same or decrease ‘J days in a row, and (c) increase 2 days out of 37 55 Suppoos that E and F are events and P(E) = 2, P(F) ~ .5, and P(E U F) = .60. De- termine (a) PLE F), (6) P(B\F), and {e) PUPIE), O CHAPTER TEST Given the sets A = (1, 2,3, 4,5, 6, 7, 8), B = (—2, 0, 2, 4, 6,8, 10), and C= (—3, =1, 0, 1, 2, 3), determine the sets: (a) ANB (b) AN BNC (c) AUBNC ‘What is the difference between the states of statistical independence and statis- tical dependence? A grocer hns display space for three products. He bas six products that he would like to display. (a) How many different arrangements of three producta can be made? (b) How many different combinations of the six products could he put on dis- play? What is the probability of drawing three cards, without replacement, froma deck of cards and getting three kings? An urn contains 18 red balls, 14 red-atriped balls, 16 yellow balla, and 12 yellow. striped balls (a) Given that a ball selected from the urn iv striped, what is the probability it is yellow? (b) Given that a ball selected from the urn is not striped, what is the probability it is red?210 HAUTE INTRODUCTION TO PRONABILITY. THEORY THE BIRTHDAY PROBLEM A.cclassic application of prohability theory relates to the likelihood, within a gr persons, that (wo or more have the same birthday. The probability that pernons have the same hirthday obviously depends upon the size of the group « persons considered. The larger the group, the higher the probability. Let's m some assumptions related to this problem. Assume that there are 365 differ birthday poasibilitivs (which ignores leap year) and that for any given person, the days are equally likely to be the person's birthday, ‘To determine the probability that two or more persons within # group have the same birthday, it i# easier to compute the probability that no two persons have the same birthday. Think about this fora moment. The event “two or more persons have the same birthday” cunaists of many poasibilities. These possibilities must account for “three or m tc, They must also account for subse persons having the same birthdays (e.g., two persons born on January 5 and three Thus, if one can determine the probability p that no two persons haye the same birthday, the desired probability can be computed as 1 — p fen & group Of n persons, selected at random, the number of different birthday matcomes is pel persons born on April 26 T = (46596501365) « - -(366) = (365)"MINICASR: THE BIRTHDAY PM 2 If, within this group of n persons, no two have the same birthday, there must be n different birth dates. The number of different outcomes which satinfy this event is computed ar U= (365)(364)(363 365~n +1 Thus, the probability that, within the group of n persons, no two persons have the birthday equals Q _ (365)(964)(363) 365—n+1 T (a65y Required behind thi b. Discus the | putation of T ic behind the c 18 will have the same birthday in y that tw c, Compute the probabili 8 group of five ran 1 more pers omly selected persons. Compute the same probabilit! 20, 30, 40, and 50 persons c. What is the ssallest group of persons for which the probability of two or more having the same birthday exceeds 50? Exceeds 75’