3MWMA

Forecasting Moving averages - 3 period moving average

Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area

222
220
Data Error analysis 218
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared 216
DAYS 1 210 214

Value
212
DAYS 2 215
210
DAYS 3 212 208
DAYS 4 220 212.333333 7.66666667 7.66666667 58.7777778 206
218 204
DAYS 5 215.666667 2.33333333 2.33333333 5.44444444
1 2 3 4
DAYS 6 216 216.666667 -0.6666667 0.66666667 0.44444444
T
DAYS 7 210 218 -8 8 64
DAYS 8 215 214.666667 0.33333333 0.33333333 0.11111111
DAYS 9 213 213.666667 -0.6666667 0.66666667 0.44444444
DAYS 10 214 212.666667 1.33333333 1.33333333 1.77777778
Total 2.33333333 21 131
Average 0.33333333 3 18.7142857
Bias MAD MSE
SE 5.11859356
Next period 214
 Forecasting
222
220
218
216
214
Value

Demand
212
Forecast
210
208
206
204
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Time
SES
Forecasting Exponential smoothing
Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and
and 1)
1) then
then enter
enter the
the past
past
demands
demands inin the
the shaded
shaded area.
area.

Alpha 0.3
Data Error Analysis
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared
DAYS 1 210 210
DAYS 2 215 210 5 5 25
DAYS 3 212 211.5 0.5 0.5 0.25
DAYS 4 220 211.65 8.35 8.35 69.7225
DAYS 5 218 214.155 3.845 3.845 14.784025
DAYS 6 216 215.3085 0.6915 0.6915 0.47817225
DAYS 7 210 215.51595 -5.51595 5.51595 30.4257044
DAYS 8 215 213.861165 1.138835 1.138835 1.29694516
DAYS 9 213 214.202816 -1.2028155 1.2028155 1.44676513
DAYS 10 214 213.841971 0.15802915 0.15802915 0.02497321
Total 12.9645987 26.4021297 143.429085
Average 1.44051096 2.93356996 15.936565
Bias MAD MSE
SE 4.52657368
Next period 213.8893796
 Forecasting
222
220
218
216
214
Value

Demand
212
Forecast
210
208
206
204
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Time
DAY DEMAND
1 210
2 215
3 212
4 220
5 218
6 216
7 210
8 215
9 213
10 214
 3MMA SES EO
DAY DEMAND FORECAST ERROR (ERROR)Sq. FORECAST ERROR (ERROR)Sq. FORECAST ERROR
1 210 210 210
2 215 210 210
3 212 211.5 210
4 220 212.333333 7.666667 58.77777778 211.65 8.35 69.7225 210 10
5 218 215.666667 2.333333 5.444444444 214.155 3.845 14.784025 210 8
6 216 216.666667 0.666667 0.444444444 215.3085 0.6915 0.47817225 217 1
7 210 218 8 64 215.516 5.51595 30.4257044 217 7
8 215 214.666667 0.333333 0.111111111 213.8612 1.138835 1.296945157 217 2
9 213 213.666667 0.666667 0.444444444 214.2028 1.202815 1.446765127 217 4
10 214 212.666667 1.333333 1.777777778 213.842 0.158029 0.024973212 217 3
(ERROR)Sq.

100
64
1
49
4
16
9