Calculate population growth rate using both geometric and exponential growth

methods if you are given the initial population 2640000 and final population
2910000 respectively at 2010 and 2018. How long it takes time to double the
population using both methods? Also project future population of the 2028 year
while using both methods if the same population growth rate exists. 
Solution
Here,
Pt =2910000

P0=2640000

T=2018-2010=8
1. By the Geometric Method:
We know, the Geometric equation of population growth:
Pt =P0 ¿

2910000=2640000¿
2910000
=¿
2640000

1.102272727=¿
Taking log on both sides, we get:
log(1.102272727)= 8log(1+r)
0.04228906212=8log(1+r)
0.04228906212
= log(1+r)
8

0.005286132765= log(1+r)
Taking anti log on both sides, we get:
Antilog(0.005286132765)=1+r
1.012246148=1+r
1.012246148-1=r
r=0.01224614797
Changing the r into percentage:
r=0.01224614797×100%
r=1.224614797% per annum
Again, the population doubling time when r=0.01224614797
Pt =P0 ¿

2 P0=P0 ¿

2=¿

Taking log on both sides, we get:

log2=t×log(1+0.01224614797 ¿
0.3010299957=t×log1.012246148
0.3010299957=0.00528613278t
0.3010299957
=t
0.00528613278

t=56.94711204
Therefore, the population doubling time with r=0.01224614797 is 56.94711204
years.
Now, Population in 2028
P0 =2910000

t= 2028-2018=10
Pt =?

We have;
Pt =P0 ¿

Pt =2910000 ¿

Pt =2910000 ¿1.012246148¿10

Pt =2910000× 1.129435223

Pt =3286656.499
Pt 3286656

Therefore, the population in 2028 will be 3286656

2. By the Exponential Method;
We know the exponential population growth equation:
Pt =P0 ert

2910000 ¿ 2640000 e 8 r

2910000 8 r
=e
2640000

1.102272727=e 8 r
Taking log on both sides, we get:
log1.102272727=8rloge
0.04228906212=8r×0.4342944814
0.04228906212
=r
0.4342944814 ×8

r=0.01217177047
Changing the growth rate into percentage:
r= 0.01217177047×100%
r=1.1217177047%
Therefore, the exponential growth rate of the population between 2018 and 2010 is
1.1217177047%.
Population doubling time with 0.01217177047:
Pt =P0 ert

2 P0=P0 e 0.01217177047t

2=e0.01217177047t

Taking log on both sides, we get:

log2=0.01217177047t×loge
0.3010299957=0.005286132751×t
 0.3010299957
=t
0.005286132751

t=56.94711236 years
Therefore, the population will be doubled with 0.01217177047 growth in
56.94711236 years.
Population Projection at 2028
P0 =2910000

t= 2028-2018=10
Pt =?

We have;
Pt =P0 ert

Pt =2910000 e0.01217177047 × 10

Pt =2910000 e0.1217177047
Pt =2910000× 1.129435223

Pt =3286656.498

  Pt 3286656
Therefore, the population in 2028 will be 3286656 .

Calculate CBR, GFR, ASFR, TFR, GRR and NRR from the following table:

Age Female Population Number of Births

Grou
p
15-19 147000 6700
20-24 127000 17200
25-29 123000 17400
30-34 98700 7800
 35-39 80000 1500
40-44 78000 400
45-49 8000 25
Note: Total Midyear Population= 2581400, Bf/B t = 0.49, & S= 0.82

Solution:

From the table:

Total number of births (B)= 51025

Total number of Female population ( Pf )= 661700

Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

We know;

B
CBR= P ×1000

51025
CBR= 2581400 ×1000

CBR= 0.01976640583 ×1000

CBR= 19.76640583

Therefore, the CBR of the population is 19.76640583 per mid-year population.

General Fertility Rate (GFR)

We know;

B
GFR= P ×1000
f (15−49)

51025
GFR= 661700 ×1000
GFR= 0.07711198428 ×1000 = 77.11198428

Therefore, the GFR is 77.11198428 per female (15-49) population.

Age Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)

Age Female Number of Births Ba

ASFR= P ×1000
f (15−49)
Grou Population
p

15-19 147000 6700 45.57823129

20-24 127000 17200 135.4330709
25-29 123000 17400 141.4634146
30-34 98700 7800 79.02735562
35-39 80000 1500 18.75
40-44 78000 400 5.12820518
45-49 8000 25 3.125
ΣASFR=428.5052775

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

We know;

TFR= 5 × ΣASFR/1000

TFR= 5 × 428.5052775/1000

TFR=2142.526388/1000

TFR= 2.142526388

Therefore, the TFR is 2.142526388 births per female.

Gross Reproductive Rate (GRR)

We know;

Bf
GRR= t × TFR
B

GRR= 0.49 ×2.142526388

GRR= 1.04983793

Therefore, the GRR is 1.04983793 female births per female of reproductive age.

Net Reproductive Rate (NRR)

Bf
NRR= t × TFR × S
B

NRR=0.49 ×2.142526388 ×0.82

NRR= 0.8608671027

Therefore, the NRR is 0.8608671027 children per female.