Professional Documents
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5.) Echo Therapeutics continues to attract attention in a variety of publications such as the cover story in the January 2011
issue of Assembly Magazine (http://www.assemblymag.com/Articles/Article_Rotation/BNP_GUID_9-5-
2006_A_10000000000000963300) and in Diabetes Health (http://www.diabeteshealth.com/read/2010/11/29/6962/echo-
therapeutics-needle-free-symphony-continuous-glucose-monitoring-system/) as well as Scientific American
(http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=wireless-blood-glucose-diabetes)
6.) While the results of the STAR 3 trial indicate that continuous glucose monitoring can benefit patients (see STAR 3
Trial Results-Continuous Glucose Monitoring Benefits), we note that the need for Echo’s transdermal biosensor is
growing in light of the FDA Warning Letter to DexCom (Nasdaq:DXCM) on the risks of sensor wire fractures underneath
the patients’ skin, particularly pediatric and adolescent patients. The warning letter noted that DexCom’s sensor wires are
not approved for use in children or adolescents, pregnant women or persons on dialysis and can only be used in the
abdomen. (see FDA Warning Letter to DexCom on Sensor Wire Factures). We believe this should give Echo’s
transdermal biosensor a significant advantage in the marketplace.
7.) We are maintaining Echo Therapeutics with a Strong Speculative Buy and a 12-18 month price target of $4.50. Our
valuation is based on 35x projected 2013 EPS and discounted 40% for risk yielding a 12-18 month target of $4.50 as the
FDA PMA approval of the Symphony™ tCGM system could occur within the forecast period. This would result in a
market capitalization of approximately $130 to $160 million. This is a discount to DexCom (Nasdaq:DXCM) (see
Competition), the only pure-play comparable, which has FDA approval for their invasive, implantable biosensors with a
market capitalization of approximately $900 million.
Company Description
Franklin, Massachusetts-based Echo MILESTONES & EVENTS
Therapeutics is developing the Symphony™ Date Prelude™ SkinPrep Symphony™ tCGM
tCGM System which is a next-generation, non- Q1’10 Pilot Study
invasive (needle-free), wireless transdermal
Q2’10
continuous glucose monitor (tCGM) system
Q3’10 Results of Equivalency Trial
designed to provide reliable, on-demand blood
Q4’10 File FDA 510(k) Submission
glucose data conveniently, continuously and
cost-effectively. Symphony™ includes the Q1’11 FDA 510(k) Approval Initiate Final Pilot Trial
Prelude™ SkinPrep system which incorporates Q2’11 U.S. Launch (Ferndale Pharma) Complete Final Pilot Trial
a patented feedback mechanism for optimal Initiate Pivotal Trial
skin permeation control and their continuous Q3’11 Complete Pivotal Trial
transdermal sensor to detect glucose trends, for File FDA PMA Submission
controlling complications associated with blood Q4’11
glucose levels that stray outside of a medically Q1’12
recommended target range. With Symphony™, Q2’12 FDA PMA Approval
the company is focused on changing the current U.S. Launch
Source: Echo Therapeutics and LifeTech Capital Estimates
standard of care paradigm of invasive (needle-
based), episodic blood glucose testing with their needle-free tCGM technology designed to improve patient compliance to
frequent glucose testing and achieve better overall glucose control. All existing FDA-approved continuous glucose
monitoring (CGM) systems are needle-based, requiring insertion of a glucose sensor into the patient’s skin, which gives
rise to risks of infection, inflammation or bleeding at the insertion site. In addition, the Prelude™ SkinPrep device (a
component of the Symphony™ tCGM system) was licensed to Ferndale Pharma Group to develop and market for skin
preparation prior to the application of a topical analgesic or anesthetic cream for local dermal anesthesia or analgesia prior
to a needle insertion or IV procedure in North America and the U.K.
The diffusion gradient and sensor consumption of glucose are a function of the blood glucose concentration in the
subpapillary vessels beneath the epidermis and the sensor generates continuous current that is proportional to the blood
glucose concentration. The first calibration is made when the sensor stabilizes (about 1 hour), followed by subsequent
calibrations depending on the applications. Due to the advanced
Transdermal BioSensor - Mechanism of Action hydrogel chemistry and the Prelude™ skin permeation process, the
glucose flux detected by the sensor can provide reliable continuous
glucose readings for 24 hours. To preserve data integrity and save
power, the assembly digitizes, stores and transmits discrete, coded
signals via a wireless link to the wireless remote monitor.
On November 11, 2010, a 510(k) premarket notification was submitted to the FDA for Echo’s Prelude SkinPrep System
for use with 4% lidocaine cream. Investors should also note that FDA 510(k) clearance triggers a $750,000 milestone
payment 90 days later from Echo’s partner, Ferndale Pharma Group in addition to sales royalties. Ferndale Pharma Group
has guaranteed a minimum royalty of $12.6 million to Echo Therapeutics. While Echo has granted Ferndale a license to
develop, market and sell Prelude™ for delivery of topical 4% lidocaine product in North America and the United
Kingdom, Echo retains the rights to continental Europe and Australia which may provide additional upside to Echo
through future partnership licensing and royalty agreements.
Symphony™ tCGM
On November 19, 2009 Echo Therapeutics announced positive results of a clinical study of its Symphony™ tCGM
System in patients with Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes using the new one-piece biosensor. This could allow the
Symphony™ tCGM to complete a final pivotal trial in Q2 2010 with an FDA PMA filing in Q3 2010. Although the
company has not yet announced the trial details, we believe a rational trial design would be approximately 200 critical
care patients, both diabetic and non-diabetic, with a primary endpoint of point and rate accuracy using continuous
glucose-error grid analysis (CG-EGA) versus laboratory reference glucose monitoring.
The details of the November 19, 2009 positive clinical study of the Symphony™ tCGM System in patients with Type 1
and Type 2 Diabetes using the new one-piece biosensor were as follows:
Study Design: After Prelude™ skin ablation, 10 Symphony™ tCGM biosensors were applied to subjects with
Type 1 or Type 2 Diabetes. Venous reference blood samples were taken from intravenous lines at 15-minute
intervals for 24 hours and measured on a YSI 2300STAT PLUS laboratory analyzer. At the conclusion of the 24-
hour study period, the test skin sites were inspected for redness or any other undesirable effects.
Study Results: Using approximately 900 Symphony™ tCGM glucose readings paired with reference blood
glucose measurements, CG-EGA revealed that the accuracy of the Echo’s Symphony™ tCGM System, measured
as a percentage of accurate readings and benign errors, was 97%. The MARD for the study was 12.89%. There
were no adverse events reported from the Prelude™ skin permeation or the Symphony™ tCGM biosensor.
Methods: CGM performance is evaluated with multiple analytical tools, as defined by the Clinical and
Laboratory Standards Institute’s POCT05-A guideline. The primary metric, used to evaluate clinical accuracy, is
the continuous glucose–error grid analysis (CG-EGA). The CG-EGA is a categorization of all data pairs based on
the clinical significance of the accuracy. Accurate readings result in the same clinical decision when based on the
CGM trend vs. the underlying blood glucose fluctuations. Benign errors lead to the same clinical outcome as
accurate readings even though the actual clinical decision may differ. Erroneous readings lead to clinical errors.
CGM performance is measured as the sum of accurate readings and benign errors. Numerical accuracy is the other
key method for evaluating CGM performance. The most widely accepted tool is mean absolute relative difference
(MARD). MARD is a standard error calculation tool that is used to measure the average absolute value of the
relative (or percentage) difference between two measurements.
The number of patients with demographic data for the three studies is shown below:
Study 3
Patient Study 1 Study 2
Abrasion vs.
Demographics Diabetes Critical Care
Ultrasound
Male 5 (50%) 7 (87.5%) 4 (66.7%)
Female 5 (50%) 1 (12.5%) 2 (33.3%)
Type I Diabetes 1 (10%) 1 (12.5%) 0
Type II Diabetes 9 (90%) 4 (50%) 0
Non-Diabetic 0 3 (37.5%) 6 (100%)
Ave. Age / Std. Dev. 63.4 / 8.8 66.4 / 6.8 41.1 / 8.9
Source: Chuang, et al, “Pilot Studies of Transdermal Continuous Glucose Measurement in Outpatient
Diabetic Patients and in Patients during and after Cardiac Surgery”, J Diabetes Sci Technol 2008;2(4):595-602
Using PEGDA hydrogel with a porous membrane, the 12-hour MARD was 20.4% and the medium R2 was 0.64 when
compared to reference measurements. Error grid analysis revealed that 70.7% of the data points fell in the A zone with
96.9% in the A+B zones. Introduction of the protective membrane appeared to deteriorate the biosensor performance.
However, the authors noted that using a composite porous membrane showed significant improvement in Study II.
Below are two sample datasets, where the continuous trace of tCGM measurements closely tracks the discrete reference
BG values for 12 hours.
Real-Time Biosensor Blood Glucose Measurements Correlate With Reference Blood Glucose Levels
Patient with High Glucose Levels Patient with Low Glucose Levels
Source: Chuang, et al, “Pilot Studies of Transdermal Continuous Glucose Measurement in Outpatient Diabetic Patients and in Patients during and after
Cardiac Surgery”, J Diabetes Sci Technol 2008;2(4):595-602
Study II - Patients in Surgical Critical Care: Data was collected from 8 out 11 patients enrolled, of which 1 patient did
not complete the study, and 2 patients were excluded
due to a low biosensor signal, which the authors Study II Results – 24 Hour Biosensor Data
believe was due to low glucose flux and insufficient
skin permeation using the older SonoPrep
(ultrasound). The reference device during surgery was
the Nova Stat Profile Ultra C and the devices used in
the cardiothoracic intensive care unit (CITU) were the
Accu-Check Inform system glucometer, the Bayer
Rapidlab 865 blood gas analyzer for whole blood
glucose and the Unicel DXC 800 for serum glucose.
Below are datasets from the intraoperative and postoperative periods showing that the continuous trace of tCGM
measurements closely tracked the discrete reference values. There was no marked difference of sensor performance
between intraoperative and postoperative study periods and no observable interferences from the surgical procedure and
the use of routinely administered concomitant medications. The study demonstrated that the tCGM system accurately
predicted blood glucose readings in a cardiac surgical ICU setting every minute for up to 24 hours.
Real-Time Biosensor Blood Glucose Measurements Correlate With Reference Blood Glucose Levels
Patient During Cardiac Surgery Patient in Intensive Care Unit (ICU)
Source: Chuang, et al, “Pilot Studies of Transdermal Continuous Glucose Measurement in Outpatient Diabetic Patients and in Patients during and after
Cardiac Surgery”, J Diabetes Sci Technol 2008;2(4):595-602
Study III - Abrasion vs Ultrasound Skin Permeation: This study was designed to compare two skin permeation
methods, the new Prelude™ (abrasion) versus the older SonoPrep (ultrasound) technologies for transdermal glucose
monitoring. 6 healthy in-house subjects completed the enrollment with 183 Prelude and 195 SonoPrep biosensor data
points collected. The reference device was Bayer’s Ascensia Contour meter.
The 24-hour MARD was 9.0% with Prelude and 10.8% with SonoPrep. 100% of the data points from both methods fell in
the A+B zones of the CEG. The median R2 was 0.70 and 0.79 for Prelude and SonoPrep, respectively. Shown below is
one sample dataset overlapping two calibrated continuous glucose measurements, where close proximity of the two traces
can be clearly seen throughout the study period. Overall, Prelude exhibited equivalent performance to SonoPrep for use of
the tCGM system.
“A reliable method for continuous glucose monitoring represents an unmet need for both home care and critical
care settings; when developed and refined successfully, the tCGM product can address this need. A cost-effective
and easy-to-use Prelude SkinPrep exhibits equivalent performance to SonoPrep for tCGM application. With the
advantages of a 1-hour warm-up period and minimally invasive nature, the tCGM system may become a preferred
medical device in facilitating diabetes management. A combination of our new skin permeation and needle-free
sensing technologies may provide a low-cost, convenient, safe, and effective solution for continuous glucose
monitoring in diverse populations.”
Diabetes Market
According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC), almost 18 million people have been diagnosed with diabetes in
the United States and almost 6 million people remain undiagnosed. Diabetes is currently the seventh leading cause of
death U.S. based on death certificates. Even then, diabetes is likely to be underreported as a cause of death as studies have
found that only about 35% to 40% of decedents with diabetes had it listed anywhere on the death certificate and only
about 10% to 15% had it listed as the underlying cause of death. Overall, the risk for death among people with diabetes is
about twice that of people without diabetes of similar age.
Uncontrolled diabetes can result in heart disease and stroke, high blood pressure, blindness, kidney disease, nervous
system disease, amputations and dental disease. Total direct medical costs are estimated at $116 billion and costs for
people diagnosed with diabetes were 2.3 times higher than what expenditures would be in the absence of diabetes. An
additional $58 billion in indirect costs are due to disability, work loss, and premature mortality.
Costs spent on inpatient hospital care were $58.3 billion and $9.9 billion on physician’s office visits directly attributed to
diabetes. Diabetes-related hospitalizations totaled 24.3 million days in 2007 (an increase of 7.4 million from 2002). The
average cost for a hospital inpatient day due to diabetes was $1,853. The average cost for a hospital inpatient day due to
diabetes-related chronic complications, including neurological, peripheral vascular, cardiovascular, renal, metabolic, and
ophthalmic complications was $2,281.
In response to the NICE-SUGAR results, FDA Commissioner, Dr. Margaret Hamburg June 24, 2009 letter (including
CDRH analysis) to the American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists stated:
“Nevertheless, many hospitals continue to use SMBG devices, cleared only as aids in the management of diabetic
patients, in these settings, even though they are not FDA cleared to diagnose disease or to maintain tight glycemic control
of diabetic and non-diabetic patients in the hospital environment. This practice can be problematic. Where hospitalized
patients are sicker (such as those in the ICU), any inaccuracies in the meters would pose different risks of greater
magnitude than expected in the population and use for which the SMBG devices are cleared.”
The FDA now wants to restrict the use of self-monitoring glucose monitors in hospitals in favor of more accurate methods
including the development of continuous glucose monitors for intensive insulin therapy in the hospital setting such as
Echo Therapeutics’ Symphony™ Transdermal Continuous Glucose Monitor (tCGM) system.
Reference Information
New York Times – July 19, 2009
“Standards Might Rise on Monitors for Diabetics”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/19/health/policy/19monitor.html
FDA Letter and CDRH Analysis– June 24, 2009
FDA Commissioner Dr. Hamburg to AACE President Dr. Garber
http://www.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/health/20090717_MONITOR_1.pdf
Reference Information
FDA Public Health Notification: Potentially Fatal Errors with GDH-PQQ* Glucose Monitoring Technology
http://www.fda.gov/MedicalDevices/Safety/AlertsandNotices/PublicHealthNotifications/ucm176992.htm
List of GDH-PQQ Glucose Test Strips and Manufacturers
http://www.fda.gov/MedicalDevices/Safety/AlertsandNotices/PublicHealthNotifications/ucm176992.htm#attachment
We believe this demonstrate the new FDA desire to restrict the use of self-monitoring glucose monitors in hospitals in
favor of more accurate methods including the development of continuous glucose monitors for intensive insulin therapy in
the hospital setting such as Echo Therapeutics’ Symphony™ Transdermal Continuous Glucose Monitor (tCGM) system.
COMPETITION
There are a limited number of continuous glucose monitor Transdermal vs. Needle BioSensor
systems currently on the market. The significant differences
between Echo Therapeutics Symphony™ system and the
competition is the needle-free transdermal biosensor, clinical
trials in the hospital setting and biosensor life.
We also believe Echo Therapeutics clinical trials in the critical care setting provides a major marketing advantage over the
competition in the hospital market. The Symphony™ system would represent an answer to the new FDA demands for
more accurate glucose monitors in the hospital. (see FDA to Require Hospitals to Use More Accurate Glucose Monitors)
Irritation From 7-Day DexCom BioSensor We further believe that the comparatively short 1-2 day biosensor life
is not a drawback, but rather an advantage. In the at-home market, the
weekly biosensors begin to lose adhesion after several showers,
swimming and other physical activity and rubbing against clothing. It
can cost a person $60 if they accidently dislodge or damage the
biosensor whereas a cheaper 1-2 day biosensor reduces the economic
risk of biosensor damage through daily activity.
Finally, there are risks involving the competitor’s need for sensor wires resulting in sensor wire fractures underneath the
patients’ skin. The FDA issued a warning letter to DexCom concerning these sensor wire fractures in May 2010 and also
noted that the DexCom SEVEN and SEVEN PLUS Systems are not approved for use in children or adolescents, pregnant
women or persons on dialysis and can only be used in the abdomen. (see FDA Warning Letter to DexCom on Sensor Wire
Factures)
Competitive Update: Echo Therapeutics competitor DexCom (Nasdaq:DXCM) and their partner, Edwards
LifeSciences (NYSE:EW) received a CE-Mark in Europe in October 2009 for their 1st generation GlucoClear®
continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) system for in-hospital critical use and filed with the FDA in Q2 2010. They are
continuing post-CE Mark trials in Europe and stated they have enhanced its ease of use in their 2nd generation product,
which they expect to launch in Europe in late 2011. Investors should note that the GlucoClear® system uses an
invasive blood-based intravenous sensor, not a subcutaneous interstitial fluid sensor.
DexCom has stated they are working on a 5th generation sensor platform which applies aspects of their blood-based
hospital sensor, for Edwards LifeSciences, into a subcutaneous sensor for both a future ambulatory sensor and a
subcutaneous sensor for use in the hospital outside of critical care.
We continue to believe that Echo Therapeutics Symphony™ transdermal continuous glucose monitoring system
(tCGM) will be the first transdermal CGM system to file with the FDA for the in-hospital use.
(see http://www.fda.gov/ICECI/EnforcementActions/WarningLetters/ucm213414.htm )
Customer Report: 09-5141, dated 7/11/2009 reported a sensor wire broke off in a three (3) year old and reported a
piece of it was under her skin. The mother reported the child had surgery under general anesthesia to remove the
broken wire underneath her skin.
Customer Report: 09-0274, dated 1/6/09 reported the sensor wire tip broke off in patient's body. The DexCom
representative advised patient to not to pursue extraction. The report states "sensor break with fragment retained under
the skin".
Customer Report: 09-3516, dated 5/07/09 the report states (that when) the nurse went to pull the old sensor off the
sensor wire it was not there. The patient's nurse reported she could see it under the skin but she could not get hold of it
with tweezers and then it disappeared. The nurse thinks "it came off and is still in his skin."
Customer Report: 09-3641, dated 5/18/09. Patient reports 2 sensors have broken off under his skin. His most recent
sensor looks broken upon removal today, and he can feel the wire under his skin. Site is red and he is going to
prescribing physician.
Customer Report: 09-5555, dated 7/20/2009. Patient called (to) report a failed sensor and has irritated skin. Patient
reported he thought the wire came out completely, but his doctor removed a "hair like structure" from under his skin.
Customer Report: 09-4237, dated 6/17/2009. Patient is a 30 month old child. Mother called to report sensor wire
breakage under skin of child. Patient taken to the ER when an infection developed.
Partnerships
Echo Therapeutics has two licensing partnerships which validate the Symphony™ technology platform:
Handok Pharmaceuticals: The Symphony™ tCGM was licensed in South Korea to Handok Pharmaceuticals, the largest
diabetes pharmaceutical company in South Korea. Specifically, on June 15, 2009 Handok paid a licensing fee of
approximately $600,000 and will pay Echo Therapeutics milestone payments upon receipt of US FDA clearance of
Symphony and upon the first commercial sale of Symphony in South Korea. Handok will also pay a royalty on net sales
of Symphony and additional milestone payments based on Handok’s achievement of certain other targets. Handok is
responsible for all product development fees and costs, and for all regulatory filings, for the final development of
Symphony in South Korea.
Ferndale Pharma Group: The Prelude™ SkinPrep device was licensed to Ferndale Pharma Group to develop and
market for skin preparation prior to the application of a topical analgesic or anesthetic cream for local dermal anesthesia
or analgesia prior to a needle insertion or IV procedure in North America and the U.K. Specifically, on May 27, 2009,
Ferndale Pharma Group paid a licensing fee of $750,000 and will pay Echo Therapeutics a milestone payment of
$750,000 90 days after US FDA 510(k) medical device clearance of Prelude. Ferndale will also pay an escalating royalty
on net sales and milestone payments based on Ferndale’s achievement of certain net sales targets, as well as guaranteed
minimum royalties, totaling an additional $12.6 million. Ferndale is responsible for all product development fees and
costs, and for all regulatory filings, for the final development of Prelude in North America and the U.K.
We calculate that the U.S. market, for just diabetic and pre-diabetic patients in ICU, is approximately $400 million
however it will take some time for sales to reach this level. It is important to note that should the Echo Therapeutics
Symphony™ tCGM system become the standard of care (including non-diabetic patients), the U.S. market opportunity
would increase dramatically to $1+ billion in sales.
Margins
For Symphony™ tCGM product line, we believe that Echo Therapeutics will sell for cost, or give away, the Prelude™
component of the Symphony™ system while generating approximately 80% on the consumables (Prelude™ tips and
BioSensors) yielding an overall margin of that we estimate at 55% and is in-line with other medical technology products.
Since Ferndale will purchase the Prelude™ for use with lidocaine at cost yielding no gross profit, we reflect only the
Prelude™ royalty portion for the sake of clarity in our financial model. A higher royalty stream from increased Prelude™
sales to Ferndale remains an upside to our model.
Valuation
Our valuation based is on 35x projected 2013 EPS and discounted 40% for risk yielding a 12-18 month target of $4.50 as
the FDA PMA approval of the Symphony™ tCGM system could occur within the forecast period. This would result in a
market capitalization of approximately $130 to $160 million. This is a discount to DexCom (Nasdaq:DXCM) (see
Competition), the only pure-play comparable, which has FDA approval for their invasive, implantable biosensors with a
market capitalization of approximately $900 million.
Intellectual Property
Echo Therapeutics has a number of patents and patent applications in the United States and foreign countries as shown
below. We expect additional patent applications will be filed in the future as development progresses.
On January 5, 2011, Echo Therapeutics entered into a strategic short term financing arrangement with Platinum Montaur
Life Sciences, one of their largest institutional investors, and issued an 8% Senior Promissory Note in the principal
amount of $1,000,000. The outstanding principal amount of the Note will accrete in value at an annual rate of 8%,
compounded monthly, and is due on February 1, 2011. Also on January 5, 2011, Echo and Montaur also entered into a
binding Term Sheet to which Montaur and any new investors will invest at least $3,000,000 through the purchase of
shares of a newly-created class of Series D Convertible Preferred Stock and common stock purchase warrants. The
parties intend to exchange the Note for Series D Stock no later than February 1, 2011, at which time Montaur will
purchase an additional $500,000 of Series D Stock. Montaur subsequently shall purchase $1,500,000 of Series D Stock in
monthly installments from March through May 2011, for a total investment of at least $3,000,000. For every $100,000
face value of Series D Stock purchased, the Investor shall be issued (i) Series 1 warrants to purchase 50,000 shares of the
common stock with an exercise price of $1.50 per share (ii) Series 2 warrants to purchase 50,000 shares of Common
Stock with an exercise price of $2.50 per share. The Warrants shall have a term of two years provided, that if the Warrants
are not exercised in full at the expiration of the term by virtue of the application of a beneficial ownership blocker, then
the term of the Warrants shall be extended until such time as the beneficial ownership blocker is no longer applicable.
Echo Therapeutics has authorized 100,000,000 shares of common stock of which 29,806,245 were issued and outstanding
as of November 15, 2010. In addition, Echo Therapeutics has 2,846,166 exercisable employee stock options with a
weighted-average exercise price of $ 0.93 as of September 30, 2010. Finally, Echo Therapeutics has 8,282,652 of
outstanding common stock warrants with a weighted-average exercise price of $ 1.78 as of September 30, 2010.
and children with inadequately controlled type 1 diabetes, sensor-augmented pump therapy resulted in significant
improvement in glycated hemoglobin levels, as compared with injection therapy. A significantly greater proportion of
both adults and children in the pump-therapy group than in the injection-therapy group reached the target glycated
hemoglobin level.”
Investors should note that the Medtronic/MiniMed continuous glucose monitor uses invasive sensor wires similar to those
of DexCom (Nasdaq:DXCM) while Echo Therapeutics Symphony Transdermal Continuous Glucose Monitoring (tCGM)
system eliminates the need for sensor wires. . (see FDA Warning Letter to DexCom on Sensor Wire Factures)
NICE-SUGAR Trial
The March 26, 2009 issue of The New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) published the results of the NICE-SUGAR
trial in a paper titled “Intensive versus Conventional Glucose Control in Critically Ill Patients” where the researchers
concluded “intensive glucose control increased mortality among adults in the ICU”. However, we caution investors from
extrapolating these findings to the Echo Therapeutics Symphony™ tCGM system. We believe that the use of inaccurate
glucose monitors in the trial caused significant errors in the data. In fact, the FDA felt the use of inaccurate glucose meters
warranted a review to bar their use in hospital critical care settings (see FDA to Require Hospitals to Use More Accurate
Glucose Monitors)
As the NEJM editorial points out, the NICE-SUGAR study “simply tells us there is no additional benefit from the
lowering of blood glucose levels below the range of approximately 140 to 180 mg per deciliter”. In fact, we believe this
may have been a result of too tight control in trying to achieve a low level of blood glucose and overshooting the target as
hypoglycemia was seen in 6.8% of the patients versus 0.5% in the control arm. As proof, previous Belgian studies
comparing intensive glycemic management to standard of care showed a patient survival benefit when reduction of
glucose level was initiated only if the level is markedly elevated at >215 mg per deciliter.
A joint statement by the American Diabetes Association (ADA) and the American Association of Clinical
Endocrinologists (AACE) on the NICE-SUGAR study on intensive vs. conventional glucose control in critically ill
patients said the results “should NOT lead to an abandonment of the concept of good glucose management in the hospital
setting. Uncontrolled high blood glucose can lead to serious problems for hospitalized patients, such as dehydration and
increased propensity to infection. It is important to consider that the severely ill patients in this trial were treated
intensively with intravenous insulin to very tight Reference Information
targets (average of 115 mg/dl), and were compared NEJM Paper
to a control group whose glucose control was good http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/short/360/13/1283
(average glucose 144 mg/dl).” NEJM Editorial
http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/short/360/13/1346
Echo Therapeutics Symphony is a continuous NEJM Correspondence
glucose monitoring system (not insulin delivery) and http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/short/361/1/89
the trial may have failed because they did not use ADA/AACE Joint Statement
accurate continuous glucose monitoring but rather http://www.diabetes.org/for-media/pr-NICE_SUGAR-study.jsp
only checked once an hour (or 30 minutes at start) CMAJ Paper
and used inaccurate glucose meters resulting in http://www.cmaj.ca/cgi/content/full/180/8/821
overshooting the blood glucose target and causing
CMAJ Commentary
hypoglycemia. Even the NICE-SUGAR study
http://www.cmaj.ca/cgi/content/full/180/8/799
authors stated “We do agree that more accurate
NICE-SUGAR Trial Documentation
systems for blood glucose measurement are
https://studies.thegeorgeinstitute.org/nice/docs/ALGORITHM.pdf
required.” in their NEJM Correspondence reply.
https://studies.thegeorgeinstitute.org/nice/docs/PROTOCOL.pdf
https://studies.thegeorgeinstitute.org/nice/docs/SAP.pdf
Finally, we note that a meta-analysis, including the
NICE-SUGAR study published in the April 14, 2009 Canadian Medical Association Journal (CMAJ) showed that
intensive glucose therapy may be beneficial to adults and children admitted to a surgical ICU (the setting that Echo
Therapeutics is addressing) and the CMAJ commentary discusses the reasons why patients in surgical ICUs benefit from
intensive insulin therapy.
Management
Patrick T. Mooney MD, CEO, President and Chairman of the Board: Dr. Mooney joined Echo in September 2007 as
a result of the merger of Sontra Medical Corporation and then privately-held Echo Therapeutics, Inc. (ETI), for which he
served as President, Chief Executive Officer and director from September 2006 through the date of the merger. Prior to
joining ETI, Dr. Mooney was President, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of Aphton Corporation (Nasdaq: APHT),
where he had also served as Chief Medical Officer. Prior to that, Dr. Mooney served as Senior Biotechnology Analyst at
Thomas Weisel Partners, LLC, a full service merchant banking firm and as Senior Biotechnology Analyst at Janney
Montgomery Scott, LLC, a full services investment banking firm. Dr. Mooney received his medical degree from the
Jefferson Medical College of Thomas Jefferson University and trained in surgery at Thomas Jefferson University
Hospital.
Harry G. Mitchell, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer: Mr. Mitchell joined Sontra Medical
Corporation (now Echo) in June 2006 and served as Sontra's Interim Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer
commencing in January 2007 through its merger with ETI. Prior to joining Sontra, Mr. Mitchell served as President and
Chief Executive Officer of MedTech Advances, Inc., a privately-held diabetes medical device company, Executive Vice
President and a director of Boston Medical Technologies, Inc., a privately-held diabetes medical device company, and as a
financial and management consultant to several other public and private companies. Mr. Mitchell is a member of the
American Institute of Certified Public Accounts and the Massachusetts Society of Certified Public Accountants.
Independent Directors
Vincent D. Enright: Mr. Enright joined our Board of Directors in March 2008. He has more than 30 years of financial
experience with public companies, including as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of KeySpan
Corporation, a NYSE public utility company. Mr. Enright currently serves as a director and Audit Committee Chairman
of certain of the funds managed by Gabelli Funds, LLC, a leading mutual fund manager, positions he has held since 1991.
Mr. Enright holds a B.S. degree in Accounting from Fordham.
Shawn K. Singh, JD: Mr. Singh joined Echo in September 2007 as a result of the merger of Sontra Medical Corporation
and ETI, for which he served as Chairman of the Board from September 2006 through the date of the merger and as
President and director from September 2004 to September 2006. Mr. Singh has been working with life science companies
for nearly 20 years. In addition to his role with Echo, Mr. Singh serves, on a part-time basis, as a Principal of Cato
BioVentures and, on a part-time basis, as Chief Operating Officer (Acting) and director of VistaGen Therapeutics. Prior to
joining Echo, Mr. Singh served as Chief Business Officer of SciClone Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: SCLN), founder and
Managing Director of Start-Up Law, President of Artemis Neuroscience and Corporate Finance Associate in the Silicon
Valley offices of Morrison & Foerster. Mr. Singh is a member of the California State Bar.
Risks
Some of the operational and financial risks to Echo Therapeutics are:
FDA and Regulatory risks: All of Echo Therapeutics’ products are ultimately reliant on approvals by the U.S.
FDA and other national regulatory bodies. There can be no guarantee of timely or definite FDA or other national
regulatory body approvals for any of their pipeline products.
Need to Raise Additional Funds: Although it is possible that Echo Therapeutics may raise sufficient funds for
development through partnership fees, milestone payments and warrant conversions, we believe that the company
will be required to raise additional funds for development and commercialization through the issuance of stock
which would be dilutive to existing shareholders and could potentially affect the share price. We have included
our estimate of future share issuance in our financial model but there can be no guarantee that our estimates are
accurate.
Partnerships: Echo Therapeutics is reliant on partners to successfully market some its products as well as partners
for development, clinical trials and regulatory filings for some of its products. Failure of Echo Therapeutics’
existing or future partners to perform satisfactorily or in a timely fashion could adversely impact the company’s
financial position.
Patent Litigation: Third-party claims of infringement of intellectual property could require Echo Therapeutics to
spend time and money on defending their intellectual property rights up to and including adverse judgments
against Echo.
Liquidity and Trading Volume: Echo Therapeutics currently trades on the OTC Bulletin Board which may result
in both lower trading volume and liquidity possibly leading to large spreads and high volatility in the stock price.
However, we believe Echo Therapeutics will pursue a listing on the Nasdaq or AMEX exchanges sometime in the
future which could result in higher trading volume and liquidity.
Sector Rotation: Echo Therapeutics is a small medical technology development company often kept in a portfolio
with similar companies. In such cases, a significant event for one company may have a material impact on the
valuation of all similar companies regardless of their unique qualities.
DISCLOSURES
Analyst Certification: We, Stephen M. Dunn and William D. Dawson, the authors of this research report certify that a.) All of the views
expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers discussed b.) No part
of our compensation is directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report and c.)
We may be eligible to receive other compensation based upon various factors, including total revenues of the Firm and its affiliates as
well as a portion of the proceeds from a broad pool of investment vehicles consisting of components of the compensation generated by
investment banking activities, including but not limited to shares of stock and/or warrants, which may or may not include the securities
referenced in this report.
DISCLOSURES
Does the Analyst or any member of the Analyst’s household have a financial interest in any securities of the Company? NO
Does the Analyst or any member of the Analyst's household or Firm serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of
NO
the Company?
Has the Analyst or any member of the Analyst’s household received compensation directly or indirectly from the Company in the
NO
previous 12 months?
Does the Firm or affiliates beneficially own ≥1% of the Company’s common stock? NO
Has the Firm or affiliates received investment banking services compensation in previous 12 months? YES
Has the Firm or affiliates received non-investment banking securities-related services compensation in previous 12 months? NO
Does the Firm or affiliates expect to receive or intend to seek investment banking compensation in next 3 months? YES
Has the Firm or affiliates received non-securities services compensation in previous 12 months? YES
Does the Firm or affiliates make a market in the Company’s securities? NO
The Firm and/or its directors and employees may own securities of the company(s) in this report and may increase or decrease
holdings in the future. The Firm, its officers, directors, analysts or employees may effect transactions in and have long or short positions
in the securities (or options or warrants with respect thereto) mentioned herein. The Firm may effect transactions as principal or agent
in the securities mentioned herein.
Ratings Definitions: 1) Strong Buy: the stock is expected to appreciate and produce a total return of at least 40% over the next 12-18
months; 2) Buy: the stock is expected to appreciate and produce a total return of at least 20% over the next 12-18 months; 3) Strong
Speculative Buy: the stock is expected to appreciate and produce a total return of at least 40% over the next 12-18 months but the
volatility and investment risk is substantially higher than our "Strong Buy" recommendation; 4) Speculative Buy: the stock is
expected to appreciate and produce a total return of at least 20% over the next 12-18 months but the volatility and investment risk is
substantially higher than our "Buy" recommendation; 5) Neutral: the stock is fairly valued for the next 12-18 months; 6) Avoid/Sell:
the stock is expected to decline at least 20% over the next 12-18 months and should be avoided or sold if held; 7) Under Review: the
previous rating and/or price target is suspended due to a significant event which now requires additional analysis and the previous
rating and/or price target cannot be relied upon; 8) Not Rated: the stock has too much business or financial uncertainty to form an
investment conclusion or is currently in the process of being acquired and 9) Restricted: coverage cannot be initiated or has been
temporarily suspended to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances such as investment banking
or an advisory capacity involving the company.
Legal Disclaimer
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SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS ADVICE INTENDED TO MEET THE PARTICULAR INVESTMENT NEEDS OF ANY INVESTOR.
THE INFORMATION IN THIS REPORT IS NOT A REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY AND IS NOT AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION
OF AN OFFER TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY.
TO THE FULLEST EXTENT OF THE LAW, LIFETECH CAPITAL, AURORA CAPITAL LLC, OUR OFFICERS, ADVISORS, AND
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Investors are expected to take full responsibility for any and all of their investment decisions based on their own independent research
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floats and very low trading volume can lead to large spreads and high volatility in stock price. Small-Cap and Micro-Cap stocks may
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The information, opinions, data, quantitative and qualitative statements contained in this report have been obtained from sources
believed to be reliable but have not been independently verified and are not guaranteed as to accuracy nor does it purport to be a
complete analysis of every material fact regarding the company, industry, or security. The information, opinions, or recommendations
are solely for advisory and informational purposes and are only valid as of the date appearing on the report and are subject to change
without notice.
Statements in this report that are not historical facts are “forward-looking statements” that involve risks and uncertainties. “Forward
looking statements" as defined under Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, Section 21B of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
and the Private Securities Litigation Act of 1995 include words such as “opportunities,” “trends,” “potential,” “estimates,” “may,” “will,”
“could,” “should,” “anticipates,” “expects” or comparable terminology or by discussions of strategy. These forward looking statements
are subject to a number of known and unknown risks and uncertainties outside of the company's or our control that could cause actual
operations or results to differ materially from those anticipated. Factors that could affect performance include, but are not limited to,
those factors that are discussed in each profiled company's most recent reports or registration statements filed with the SEC. Investors
should consider these factors in evaluating the forward looking statements included in this report and not place undue reliance upon
such statements. Investors are encouraged to read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov
and FINRA at http://www.finra.org.