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Comprehensive Pack-2 Wheelers PDF
Comprehensive Pack-2 Wheelers PDF
Comprehensive Pack-2 Wheelers PDF
2-Wheelers
1
• Industry Overview :3
• Motor cycles :8
• Exports : 16
•Realizations : 21
2
Between 2010-11 to 2016-17, motorcycle sales increased at a modest 6%
compound annual growth rate (CAGR), scooter sales accelerated at a
strong 20% CAGR.
Scooters
INDUSTRY GROWTH TRENDS
Motor-Cycles
Mopeds
•Rural demand constitute 46-48% of the • Improved road network in Tier 2 and
motorcycles sales. Tier 3 cities and lack of public
•Two consecutive years of El-Nino for FY transport
15 and FY 16, resulting into back-to-back •Reducing mileage gap between
drought situation in rural areas which motorcycles and scooters
affected Motorcycles growth
•Gender-neutral positioning
• Growth picked up in 2016-17 due to:
•Launch of new models
•Good Rainfall
•Steady expansion in players'
•Improvement in MSP of both Kharif
dealership network
and Rabi
•Increase demand in urban areas due •Capacity expansion by leading
MOPEDS
• Demand for mopeds mainly comes from small businessmen, shopkeepers and
farmers in rural and semi-urban areas.
• Geographically, AP and TN contribute the highest sales.
• Over the last few years, Kinetic Engineering, Majestic Auto etc have shut their
moped businesses and as a result, TVS Motors is the only player in the segment
• There was a decline in moped sales in the last 2-3 years as erratic rainfall led to
poor farm income.
• But in 2016-17, TVS launched its new four stroke XL 100.This model has been
very well received in the market. The newly launched model is also being well
received in the northern states
• In 2016-17, Moped sales accelerated 23% over a low base in 2015-16 as a result of
improved rural demand and a well-received new model launch.
The share of motor- cycles sales has dropped from 76.6% in 2010-11 to
63% in 2016-17. In contrast, the share of scooters has increased from
17.5% to 31.65% in the same period
7
Motor-Cycle review
8
HMSI has been gaining market share at the expense of Honda and
Bajaj.
capacity.
• Executive sub-segment
MOTORCYCLES SUB-SEGMENTS
EXECUTIVE • Hero is the undisputed market
14
HMSI has 57% share in the scooters segment.
16
After a period of slow or negative growth, exports picked up in 2017-
18.
Source: SIAM
17
Share of Latin America and Europe in India’s exports have gone up
between 20164 to 2017.
EXPORTS DESTINATION
2014 2017
EXPORTS SHIFT
Exports to Latin America will continue their growth momentum due to better
economic growth and appreciation of Latin American currencies (the Mexican peso
appreciated 6% and the Argentine peso climbed 3%, while the Colombian peso rose
1% in January-May 2017).
Recent expansion in the Latin American market by Hero and TVS will support
growth in demand for exports.
Exports to African countries have been suffering post the slump in oil prices.
Moreover, the Nigerian naira which depreciated 53% in 2016, is still under pressure
and19depreciated a further 6% in January-May 2017.
Bajaj’s market share in exports has dropped due to over exposure to
African markets and dependence on motorcycles.
Source: SIAM
20
REALIZATIONS
21
Realizations increased due to the combination of price hikes and
increased share of premium segment.
supported by rupee
depreciation.
Source: crisil research
23
Despite having lower market share, Bajaj is the highest profit
making 2-wheeler company due to it’s premium bikes and exports.
25
Raw material costs constitute 80 to 85% of the total costs.
COST BREAK-UP
Expansion of distributive
network
models
•Margins are estimated to have expanded 200 bps to about 16% levels in 2015-
29
Capacity Utilization typically has improved after bottoming out in
2015-16.
Source: SIAM
30
Future Growth Outlook
31
Growth Trends
33
Growth to remain robust till 2019-20
• From 2016-17 to 2019-20, motorcycle sales to expand at 6-8% CAGR on the back of
rural demand and premium launches.
• Scooter sales is likely to grow at 14-16% CAGR, led by positive structural factors
such as convenience, perceived higher utility in intra-city transport, and growth in
demand from urban and semi-urban areas.
34
Emission norms to affect two-wheelers most; prices to surge in 2020-21
• Two-wheeler prices to rise from 2017-18 onward, owing to regulatory requirements.
• The main price hike is expected in 2020-21, owing to compliance with Bharat Stage-
VI (BS-VI) norms.
• On average, prices are likely to rise ~Rs 1,000 in 2017-18. A hike of Rs 500 for
economy, Rs 1,000 for executive, and Rs 9,000 for the premium segment, will impact
motorcycle demand in 2019-20. Combined braking system, which will be mandatory
for vehicles < 125 cc, will add Rs 500-1000 to vehicle prices, while anti-lock braking
system will add Rs 9000.
35
Emission norms to affect two-wheelers most; prices to surge in 2020-21
• A sharp across-the-board price increase of Rs 10,000 will take place in 2020-21, on
account of BS-VI compliance, affecting sales that year. Sales will drop 7-9%, with
economy segment and mopeds taking most heat.
• Industry expect some improvement in the demand scenario in 2021-22, from the low
base of the previous fiscal. On the whole, the industry to expand at a 5-7% CAGR
between 2016-17 and 2021-22, with 3-5% growth in motorcycles and 0-2% in
• mopeds. Scooters are expected to continue to outperform the industry at 9-11%
CAGR.
36
Competitive intensity rises with increase in player's offerings
• Competition is intensifying in the Indian two-wheeler market, with global players
increasing their offerings, even as domestic players are launching newer products.
• Motorcycle segment to see more competition, given the launches planned by players.
Competition is expected to be more intense in the premium segment.
• Launches are anticipated in the scooter segment from global and domestic players.
Players with a sharper focus on scooters have benefited owing to the continued
growth momentum in sales, whereas companies such as Bajaj and Hero have felt the
pinch.
37
Smooth ride for industry up to 2020, BS-VI norms to slow down
pace in 2020-21
• The under-penetrated rural market will be the key growth segment for the two-wheeler
industry. Rising incomes and growth in addressable households will be further aided by
better rural connectivity and rising participation of women in both urban and rural
• areas. Scooter sales are likely to grow at a higher rate than motorcycles over the next five
years, due to changing consumer preferences.
• The implementation of BS-VI norms in 2020-21 will destabilise the growth trajectory, but
the industry is expected to rebound within the next year.
38
Rural markets to steer long term growth, but emission norms to
pose a speed breaker in 2020-21
• Domestic two-wheeler sales to record a robust compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of
8-10% up to 2019-20.
• Payouts following the Seventh Pay Commission's recommendations are expected to boost
two-wheeler sales up to thenext fiscal.
• Scooters, the fastest growing segment, will make rapid strides. Here, manufacturers' focus
on urban markets, expansion in the distribution network in semi-urban and rural areas,
model launches, and better product positioning will drive up volumes.
• Motorcycle sales are likely to grow on the back of robust rural sales.
• Mopeds, which account for 4-5% of domestic twowheeler sales, are also expected to
continue growing at a moderate pace.
39
Rural markets to steer long term growth, but emission norms to
pose a speed breaker in 2020-21
• However, prices are estimated to rise sharply in compliance with the BS-VI norms in 2020-
21, leading to an adverse impact on sales.
• Sales volumes to drop 7-9% that year.
• The impact is expected to be lower on premium motorcycles and scooters, and higher on
price-sensitive mopeds, and economy and executive category motorcycles.
• Thereon, we expect industry growth to rebound from the low base of 2020-21 and grow 8-
10% in 2021-22. The five-year CAGR up to 2021-22 is thus estimated at 5-7%.
40
Estimated long term volumes and growth rates by two wheeler segment
• Scooters' growth has been continuously outpacing that of motorcycles. Led by the
structural factors, scooters are estimated to grow at a faster pace in the next five years.
• The share of scooters in the two-wheeler industry is estimated to reach ~36% in 2021-22
from a mere 19% in 2011-12.
42
Scooters eating into motorcycles' share
44
Considerable scope for expansion in rural markets
Source: Industry
48
Decile-wise penetration: Rural versus urban
• On the rural front, besides rising penetration and improving incomes, better road
infrastructure is also expected to support income demand.
• Rural roads also have a very favourable impact on two-wheeler demand.
• This impact is: Direct, by generating income multiplier in the rural economy during the
construction of roads Indirect, by enabling mobility and access through connectivity.
• Every kilometre of road constructed results in an addition of 20-25 two-wheeler
ownership.
49
Company Analysis - Eicher
50
Eicher Motor’s market capitalization grew 114 times between
2008 to 2018.
1
• If you had bought one share of Eicher at Rs.
224 in 2006, it would have been worth Rs. 28,450
on March 29, 2018.
53
MAJOR STRATEGIC DECISIONS
•Till 2004, Eicher group had a diverse spread of about 15 businesses including
tractors, trucks, motorcycles, components, footwear and garments, but none was
a market leader.
• Lal undertook an intense portfolio analysis and took a hard call.
•He decided to divest 13 businesses and put all money and focus behind Royal
Enfield and trucks, two businesses where he believed the group had a genuine
shot at leadership.
• Back then, conglomerates viewed businesses as family jewels. It was a cardinal
sin to sell anything. But Lal sold almost everything.
54
How Mr. Lal justified his strategy?
"In my mind the basic question was this: do we want to be a mediocre player in
"That's why we sold 13 out of the 15 businesses, the big one being tractors to
•In 2000,Royal Enfield was in a very bad shape. Their monthly production was
2000 units against a capacity of 6000 units.
• Directors of Eicher Motors decided to either sell-off or shut down the motor-
cycle division.
• Siddarth Lal convinced the board that the Bullet need to be given another chance.
• Lal, then 26, was an unabashed Bullet fan: he even rode a red-coloured Bullet
while leading the baraat (procession) to his wedding venue, instead of the
traditional horse.
• Though the Bullet had its reputation, following, an instantly recognisable build,
and aspirational value, it faced 1many challenges.
56
CHALLENGES
• Competition:
Liberalization of 1990s had led to the introduction of deluge of light, easy to commute, cost
Competitive bikes in the Indian market.
• Quality
There was a joke that the Royal Enfield Bullet travelled directly from Showroom to
Mechanic.
Though the bikes had diehard followers, there were also frequent complaints about them
- of engine seizures, snapping of the accelerator or clutch cables, electrical failures and oil
leakages.
57
CHALLENGES
• Design:
The company had to deal with many basic design questions –
Should the gears be shifted close to the rider's left foot - as in most bikes - or
retained on the right side? Long-term users were dead opposed to this change.
Many prospective buyers found the Bullet too heavy, difficult to maintain, with the
gear lever inconveniently positioned and a daunting kick-start.
Engine was made of Cast iron that made it prone to oil leaks and frequent
seizures. Its ability to meet increasingly strict emission norms was also suspect.
A modern aluminium engine would eliminate these problems, but it would lack
the old engine's pronounced vibrations and beat - which Royal Enfield customers
loved.
58
ROYAL ENFIELD: KEY DECISIONS
• The company decided to retain the bikes' rugged looks, including the build, the
design of the head lamp and the petrol tank, many of the old engine's
characteristics - the long stroke, the single cylinder, the high capacity with push rod
mechanism.
• But the company decided to make some bold changes:
• The gear lever was shifted to the left despite the opposition from long-term users
• The new aluminium engine, unlike the old, had hydraulic tappets, a new engine
arrangement, and fewer moving parts. But it did not produce the vibrations and the
beat of the old, but international experts were consulted and sound mapping carried
out for over 1,000 hours to ensure it produced the maximum rhythmic vibrations
possible and a beat, which was 70 per cent of the amplitude of the original.
• The new engine had 30 per cent fewer parts and produced 30 per cent more power
than the old, with better fuel efficiency. By 2010, all Royal Enfield models had begun
to use the new engine.
ROYAL ENFIELD: KEY DECISIONS
In October 2008, Royal Enfield launched in Germany its newly designed 500cc
Classic model - inspired by J2, a 1950 model Bullet - with the new engine. It was a
success, admired for its performance and fuel economy.
FY 2018
to June 2018.
25%
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
62
ROYAL ENGIELD’S PROFITABILITY
63
350 CC bikes contribute to more than 90% of the company’s sales
64
Bajaj Domineer could not dent the dominance of Classic 350 cc
65
Total Sales (2017) 5,27,737 Units 22,707 Units
VIRTUALLY NO COMPETITION IN 350 CC SEGMENT
66
The company significantly expanded the dealer network in the last 5-6
years.
cities.
67
Royal Enfield’s advertising spend is only 0.6% of sales whereas the
industry average is around 2.2 to 2.5%.
68
FOCUS ON EXPORTS
•In 2015, Lal shifted focus to international markets. The company exporte a mere
6,000 bikes annually in 2015, but Lal believed Royal Enfield can be a sizeable player
in international markets a decade from now.
•He made some strategic hiring with this goal in mind.
• Rod Copes, a former Harley Davidson manager has been hired as president
of North America (based in US);
•Pierre Terblanche, head of the industrial design team was snagged from
Ducati;
•James Young, head — engines has worked in Triumph, and was hired in UK.
•Simon Warburton, head — product planning and strategy (new projects) also
comes from Triumph.
•Mark Wells, head — programme (new projects) and Ian Wride, worked on
Enfield's Classic and Continental GT models while they were with the design
firm 'Xenophya.‘
•Rudratej Singh from Unilever1
for marketing .
• In 2017, exports increased to around 18,000 units (300% over 2015 volumes) and
export to more than 50 countries including developed markets like US, Germany,
UK etc
69
FROM BIKES TO TRUCKS
•Lal turned his attention to trucks in 2006 after turning around Royal Enfield.
•Eicher and Volvo hold 54.4% and 45.6% respectively in the joint venture VE
Commercial Vehicles (VECV). This alliance too has led to shareholder value
creation.
•Though VECV is the number 4 player in terms of market share, it has managed to
margins.
70