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We believe that 2019 will be a crucial year for URC to prove its ability to recover its earnings 80
performance sustainably. Currently, we are forecasting an 11.6% increase in core profits as we 70
assumed that EBIT margin of its domestic branded business would improve to 13.0% (from
12.5% in 9M18) while the EBIT margin of its international operations would expand to 9.3% 60
(from 7.8% in 9M18). However, we still remain cautious given numerous headwinds such as 1) 50
higher inflation, 2) peso weakness, and 3) tougher competitive environment, among others. We 29-Jul-18 29-Aug-18 29-Sep-18 29-Oct-18
think 4Q18 results will show us a much clearer picture if URC will be able to overcome these
headwinds well in 2019. URC PSEi
Maintain SELL. Despite our double-digit earnings growth forecast for URC in 2019, we don’t
think valuations are attractive enough given the numerous country, industry, and company ABSOLUTE PERFORMANCE
specific headwinds facing both its Philippine and international operations. At its current price
of Php130.0/sh, URC is trading at 25.9X 2019E P/E which is a significant premium compared to 1M 3M YTD
the average P/E of its global and local peers notwithstanding the various challenges that URC is URC -8.51 0.92 -11.57
facing. We are thus maintaining our SELL rating and our fair value estimate of Php111.0/sh.
PSEi -2.80 -8.16 -17.35
FORECAST SUMMARY
Year to December 31 (Php Mil) 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E
Revenues 112,005 112,612 125,008 132,196 138,626 144,875 MARKET DATA
% change y/y 15.9 0.5 11.0 5.8 4.9 4.5
EBIT 18,103 15,760 14,952 14,262 15,537 16,945 Market Cap 291,390.20Mil
% change y/y 19.1 -12.9 -5.1 -4.6 8.9 9.1 Outstanding Shares 2,204.16Mil
Operating Margin (%) 16.2 14.0 12.0 10.8 11.2 11.7
52 Wk Range 111.30 - 172.26
Core Profits 17,076 15,069 13,747 12,671 14,135 16,131
% change y/y 14.3 -11.8 -8.8 -7.8 11.6 14.1 3Mo Ave Daily T/O 151.19Mil
Core Profit Margin (%) 15.2 13.4 11.0 9.6 10.2 11.1
Net Income 13,862 12,872 10,888 9,877 11,072 12,669
% change y/y 16.0 -7.1 -15.4 -9.3 12.1 14.4
Net Profit Margin (%) 12.4 11.4 8.7 7.5 8.0 8.7
EPS 6.35 5.90 4.94 4.48 5.02 5.75
% change y/y 16.0 -7.1 -16.3 -9.3 12.1 14.4
RELATIVE VALUE
P/E(X) 20.5 22.0 26.3 29.0 25.9 22.6
ANDY DELA CRUZ
P/BV(X) 4.1 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.0 SENIOR RESEARCH ANALYST
ROE(%) 20.2 16.3 13.4 11.7 12.5 13.4 andy.delacruz@colfinancial.com
Dividend Yield (%) 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.5
So urce: URC, COL estimates
Disclaimer: All content provided in COL Reports are meant to be read in the COL Financial website. Accuracy and completeness of content cannot be guaranteed if reports are viewed outside of
the COL Financial website as these may be subject to tampering or unauthorized alterations.
EARNINGS ANALYSIS I URC: 3Q18 EARNINGS IMPROVE SEQUENTIALLY BUT A SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY IS STILL UNSURE
URC’s net income for the third quarter of the year increased by 1.7% y/y to Php2.0 Bil.
Excluding one-off items such as forex gains/losses, core earnings before tax reached Php3.05
Bil, higher by 15.5% y/y. Consolidated EBIT margin improved on both a year-on-year (+60 bps
y/y) and quarter-on-quarter (+55 bps q/q) basis due to the normalization of the EBIT margins
of its commodity and agro-industrial segments, and its domestic branded operations which
benefited from selling price increases. On the flipside, URC’s revenues for the third quarter
decreased by 1.5% y/y to Php31.2 Bil, dragged by its New Zealand operations (-14%) and
lower sales of its sugar segment (-56%). This was partly offset by the recovery of its Vietnamese
operations (+20%) and its domestic branded operations (+2%).
For the first nine months of 2018, core profits declined by 7.0% y/y to Php9.1 Bil, in with COL
estimates (71.5% of full-year forecast). Revenues grew by 3.4% y/y to Php95.5 Bil, in line with
both COL and consensus estimates. However, core earnings still missed consensus estimates
given that URC’s net income only accounted for 64.1% of consensus net income forecast of
Php10.6 Bil.
EBIT margin of URC’s domestic branded business contracted by 170 bps y/y to 12.6% in 3Q18,
causing segment EBIT to decline by 10.2% to Php1.9 Bil. Higher input costs compared to year-
ago levels as well as higher operating costs continued to hurt URC this quarter. On a more
positive note, EBIT margin is already slightly better compared to the previous quarter (up 55
bps) after URC increased prices in May and June.
Sales from its domestic business grew by 2.0% y/y in 3Q18 to Php14.7 Bil. Revenues grew as
the strong performance of URC’s snack foods category (+4% sales y/y) and noodles category
(+16% sales y/y) was able to offset the decline of its revenues from the coffee (-6% sales y/y)
and RTD tea segments (-4% sales y/y).
URC’s coffee market share continued to drop as a result of competitive pressures from Kopiko
and Nescafe. Its coffee market share as of August 2018 was 24.3%, lower by 60 bps compared
to 24.9% as of June 2018. Meanwhile, sales volume of its RTD tea (C2 brand line) was hurt by the
sharp increase in selling price as URC passed on the excise tax on sugary drinks implemented
early this year. URC added that sugar supply constraints affected its production volume,
hindering its ability to meet the demand.
Source: URC
Results of URC’s international operations were disappointing, largely dragged by its New
Zealand operations. New Zealand sales dropped by 14% y/y in 3Q18 since the market
reacted negatively to significant price increase implemented by Griffin’s in 2017. This was also
aggravated by low-priced snacks from competitors such as the $1 pack from Oreo (sales of
which have been growing north of 70% in New Zealand, according to URC). All these factors
caused results of its New Zealand operations to remain weak during the year.
Revenue growth of URC’s Australian operations also started to slow in 2Q18 (+2% y/y) and
remained weak in 3Q18 (+3% y/y). The overall salty snack category in Australia is growing by
low single digit this year compared to high single digit last year due to the shift in consumer
preference towards health and nutrition. Although URC thinks this development is good
for the company since they also have healthy products from Griffin’s, URC was not able to
capitalize on the shift given the abruptness of the change.
On the brighter side, URC’s recovery in Vietnam remains intact. Sales in 3Q18 grew by 20% y/y
since efforts to revitalize its C2 and Rongdo brands were fruitful. Its Thailand operations also
registered higher profits in 3Q18 despite lower sales.
Source: URC
Due to New Zealand and Thailand’s lower sales, international branded sales declined by 1.6%
y/y to Php11.1 Bil in 3Q18. EBIT margin for international branded contracted marginally by
around 10 bps y/y to 7.5%, with New Zealand being the main culprit for a lower EBIT margin.
This caused URC’s international EBIT to decline by 2.7% y/y to Php832 Mil.
Although URC’s EBIT margin in 3Q18 increased slightly compared to its 2Q18 level (which is a
welcomed development), we don’t think that its performance this quarter is a clear indication
of better results going forward. In fact, URC’s earnings performance was just in line with our
forecast since we also factored in the impact of price increases that were rolled out late 2Q18
on margins. Profits during the third quarter of last year were also lower compared to other
quarters in 2017 due to the weak results of its commodity (sugar and flour) and agro-industrial
(feeds and farms) businesses. Note that consolidated core earnings in 3Q17 dropped by 25.7%
compared to 3Q16, much faster than the 8.8% drop in full-year core earnings. During 3Q18,
EBIT of these two segments jumped by 22% and 121% y/y to more normal levels of Php527 Mil
and Php563 Mil, respectively.
We believe that 2019 will be a crucial year for URC to prove its ability to recover its earnings
performance sustainably. Currently, we are forecasting an 11.6% increase in core profits as we
assumed that EBIT margin of its domestic branded business would improve to 13.0% (from
12.5% in 9M18) while the EBIT margin of its international operations would expand to 9.3%
(from 7.8% in 9M18). However, we still remain cautious given numerous headwinds such as 1)
higher inflation, 2) peso weakness, and 3) tougher competitive environment, among others.
We think 4Q18 results will show us a much clearer picture if URC will be able to overcome these
headwinds well in 2019.
Maintain SELL
Despite our double-digit earnings growth forecast for URC in 2019, we don’t think valuations
are attractive enough given the numerous country, industry, and company specific headwinds
facing both its Philippine and international operations. At its current price of Php130.0/sh, URC
is trading at 25.9X 2019E P/E which is a significant premium compared to the average P/E of its
global and local peers notwithstanding the various challenges that URC is facing. We are thus
maintaining our SELL rating and our fair value estimate of Php111.0/sh.
estic Branded Consumer Food International Branded Consumer Food FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
Domestic Branded Consumer Income (loss) before income tax 14,739 17,553 16,299 13,950 12,671 14,135
aging Commodity Food Group
Food Depreciation & Amortization 4,228 4,955 5,645 6,104 6,064 6,187
-Industrial Group International Branded Consumer Other Non-Cash Exp (Gains) 103 971 (725) 920 1,591 1,401
Food Net interest income (expense) (40) (1,098) (688) (1,078) (1,374) (1,352)
47.2% Packaging Increase (decrease) in Working Cap (6,580) 3,626 (391) (2,185) (1,780) (572)
Income tax expense (2,129) (3,011) (3,523) (3,458) (2,513) (2,766)
Commodity Food Group
Operating Cash Flow 10,321 22,996 16,617 14,253 14,658 17,033
Capex (7,086) (7,252) (6,334) (8,130) (6,348) (6,348)
Agro-Industrial Group
Other Investments (7,257) (285) (21,511) (278) 465 (45)
Investing Cash Flow (14,343) (7,536) (27,844) (8,408) (5,883) (6,393)
Proceeds (Payment) Debts 8,013 375 7,528 434 - (14,600)
Payment of Cash Dividends (6,615) (6,673) (7,215) (7,171) (7,077) (6,420)
Others - - 4,356 41 - -
Financing Cash Flow 1,399 (6,298) 4,669 (6,696) (7,077) (21,020)
Change in Cash (2,624) 9,161 (6,558) (851) 1,698 (10,380)
VALUATION ASSUMPTIONS
For DCF
Risk Premium 5.0%
Risk Free Rate 6.5%
Beta 0.95
Cost of Equity 11.3%
Cost of Debt 5.5%
Tax Rate 30.0%
WACC 8.8%
Terminal Growth Rate 3.8%
PV (2019E-2023E) 53,900
PV of Terminal Value 204,626
Enterprise value 258,527
Less: Net Debt 14,365
Equity Value 244,162
O/S 2,204
FV Estimate 111.00
HOLD
Stocks that have a HOLD rating have either 1) attractive fundamentals but expensive valuations 2) attractive valuations but near-term earnings outlook might be poor
or vulnerable to numerous risks. Given the said factors, the share price of the stock may perform merely in line or underperform in the market in the next six to twelve
months.
SELL
We dislike both the valuations and fundamentals of stocks with a SELL rating. We expect the share price to underperform in the next six to12 months.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
Securities recommended, offered or sold by COL Financial Group, Inc. are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.
Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and said information may be
incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute the judgment of COL’s Equity Research Department as of the date of the report and are subject to change
without prior notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. COL Financial and/
or its employees not involved in the preparation of this report may have investments in securities of derivatives of the companies mentioned in this report and may trade
them in ways different from those discussed in this report.