Short Term Load Forecasting as a Base Core
of Smart Grid Integrated Intelligent Energy
Management System
A. A. Aydarous, M. A. Elshahed, M. A. Moustafa Hassan
Electric Power and Machines Dept., Faculty of Engineering
Cairo University
Giza, Egypt
amr.aydarous@gmail.com, m.elshahed@eng.cu.edu.eg, mmustafa_98@hotmail.com
Abstract—The energy sector is one of the major sectors where
big steps can be taken towards a sustainable future. This paper
represents a study to determine the most effective and accurate
technique for Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) that can be
done through Integrated Intelligent Energy Management
processes for Smart Grid. The Load Forecasting shall be based
on the historical data only. This study compared the results of 56
different scenarios in the number of inputs, different algorithms,
and input method. ANN, PSO, MAACPSO, and ANFIS were
used as different algorithms. Different input methods include a
new proposed method which considers Multi Stages Forecasting.
Study verification is done by testing versus other practical STLF
methods using traditional inputs. The proposed method results
are auspicious with reduced Mean Absolute Error.
Keywords—artificial intelligent methods; energy management;
evolutionary optimization techniques; multi stages forecasting;
short term load forecasting; smart grid.
I. INTRODUCTION
In the 1880s, electricity was generated near consumption
because of the simplicity of the type of loads [1]. To take
advantage of economies of scale, power generation was
directed to be centralized, Hence, management system started
to be used, which was limited to generation side to be able to
interconnect power plants to balance load and improve load
factors [2]. With the increase in energy demand, there was a
need to replace the classic techniques with smarter systems.
These smarter systems are dependent on more information on
loads such as load classification and forecasting future loads
[3]. This has been done in two different axes.
The first axis is the expansion of Distributed Generators
(DG), renewable energy sources [1], microgrid and energy
storage devices. Therefore the use of the term smart grid has
become widespread. Although the different definition of Smart
grid term [4-5], the basic principles have not been changed.
The tools to achieve and manage those principles become more
and more important. Furthermore, these tools must be fully
integrated [6].
The second axis is the Demand Response (DR) or Demand
Side Management (DSM). Demand response can be obtained at
the large amounts of electric energy consumption level such as
industrial plants where their electricity tariff account for a
significant percentage of their total operation cost by load
reduction and receiving rewards for participating [3].
978-1-5386-1750-2/17/$31.00 ©2017 IEEE
192
By implementing Demand Side Measures, both of
implementing organization and customers share its benefits [7].
To maximize these common benefits, the role of the integrated
resource planning is highlighted. The development of
integrated resource plan based on the identification and
evaluation of supply side to Demand-Side resources and vice
versa, that required a clear understanding of utility objectives
and obligations [7-9]. Here comes the main role of load
forecasting as a cornerstone of the integrated resource planning
process to complete this cycle [10].
Between all of the forecasting types, Short-Term Electrical
Load Forecasting (STELF) is more important one for energy
management process [11]. Even though a number of
researchers [12-14], have integrated load forecasting into
Energy Management processes for the emergence of a new
generation of Load Forecasting called Integrated Intelligent
Energy Management (IIEM) [11].
II. PROBLEM DEFINITION AND HYPOTHESES
The problem is to find a short term forecasting method can
be implemented into Integrated Intelligent Energy Management
System (IIEMS) to have an accurate forecasting of the smart
grid connected loads to be able to optimize the network at load
requirements. The following assumptions will be tested
through this paper to find the problem solution.
• Depending on the actual load power reading is enough
to predict the future load without the need to concede
any other factors that affect the value of the load i.e.
temperature, climate, economic conditions, energy
prices … etc. as presented in [15]. Where those factors
are not instantaneous factors, it is assumed that all of
these factors had an effect on the preceding actual load,
thus this effect had been measured and recorded in the
actual load power reading.
• The relation between the hourly actual load power
readings is a useful relation, where they are the nearest
actual data.
• The actual load power readings of the same hour at
previous days can be helpful to observe the abnormal
weather conditions which at most lasting for many days.
 • The data of same hour same day at previous weeks is
particularly important as they differentiate between data
of weekdays and the data of weekends.
• The actual load power readings of same hour and day at
previous years have a great relation, where they have
nearly the same climate changes, seasons, holidays,
school days etc.
• All the above mentioned useful relations can be used by
input all data sequentially or input all of the data at
once.
III. THE METHOD OF STATEMENT FOR THE PROPOSED
STUDY
A. Methodology Structure
The study is based on a comparison of Mean Absolute
Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of
the forecasted load data that produced by the proposed methods
and previous methods in the literature. A proposed case study
to forecast the load is Three-Dimensional Combined Scenarios.
The first dimension is the used optimization algorithm; this
study compares the results of four optimization algorithms;
ANN [16], PSO [17], MAACPSO [18], and ANFIS [19].
The second dimension is the method and sequence of input
data entry to train and test the optimization algorithms. Seven
methods are proposed and used in this research work, these
methods are listed below:
a) Previous Hours Method (PHM).
b) Previous Days Method (PDM) for the same hour.
c) Previous Weeks Method (PWM) for the same week-
day and same hour.
d) Previous Years Method (PYM) for the same month-
day and same hour.
e) Multi Stage Method (MSM).
f) 4 Data by 4 type Method (4DM).
g) 1 Data by 4 type Method (1DM).
The third dimension is the size of used datasets to train and
test the optimization algorithms.
Case 1: A large number of samples (74496 samples) uses a
table of historical hourly loads’ data for the years from Jan.1,
2008 1:00 to Jun.30, 2016 24:00 as a large dataset.
Case 2: Less number of samples (348 samples) uses a table
of historical hourly loads’ data for the days Jun.15, 2016 1:00
to Jun.30, 2016 24:00 as a small dataset.
According to the above; 56 results will be generated to be
compared to stand with the best algorithm, a sufficient input
method for the data type and the size of the input dataset.
B. Dataset Creation
All the different datasets are based on the historical data of
actual readings recorded to the loads with different time shift
and different input technique defined as follows:
193
1) Previous Hours Method (PHM):
Input dataset for PHM is four previous data in a row of the
predicted hour as in Equation (1):
PHM = [L(H-4x1) L(H-4x1) L(H-4x1) L(H-4x1)] (1)
Where L is the function of the recorded measured load, and
H is the time by hours that forecast load is required at it.
2) Previous Days Method (PDM):
The criteria to create the input dataset will be similar to the
one to create PHM dataset but with changing in the time
interval window from 1 to 24 hour as in Equation (2):
PDM = [L(H-4x24) L(H-4x24) L(H-4x24) L(H-4x24)] (2)
3) Previous Weeks Method (PWM):
The criteria to create the PWM dataset are to change the
time interval window to be 168 hours as in Equation (3):
PDM=[L(H-4x168) L(H-4x168) L(H-4x168) L(H-4x168)] (3)
4) Previous Years Method (PYM):
In this method, the dataset creation criteria will be more
complex as the moving time interval window is not a fixed
number. To get over this issue, the generation code will adjust
February month by removing day 29 or repeating day 28
according to the target year.
5) Multi Stage Method (MSM):
It is a sequential staged data input to improve the forecasted
results. The proposed method consists of four consecutive
stages. The First Stage is PHM, the Second Stage is an
aggregation of PDM and the forecasted data (the output) of the
PHM (first stage), the Third Stage is an aggregation of PWM
and the forecasted data (the output) of the second stage, the
Fourth Stage is the final stage, it is an aggregation of PYM and
the forecasted data (the output) of the third stage.
6) 4 Data by 4 type Method (4DM):
That uses all data with four samples of each type. This
method is an aggregation of (PHM), (PDM), (PWM) and
(PYM) to get a 16x1 matrix as in Equation (4).
4DM = [PHM(1) PHM(2) PHM(3) PHM(4)
PDM(1) PDM(2) PDM(3) PDM(4)
PWM(1) PWM(2) PWM(3) PWM(4)
PYM(1) PYM(2) PYM(3) PYM(4)] (4)
7) 1 Data by 4 type Method (1DM):
It uses all data with one sample of each type to reduce the
number of data samples. It will be the same of 4DM but only
one datum for each of (PHM), (PDM), (PWM) and (PYM) will
be considered to get 4x1 matrix as in Equation (5).
1DM = [PHM(1) PDM(1) PWM(1) PYM(1)] (5)
 IV. IMPLEMENTATION AND RESULTS To allow a fair competitive study, calculations of MAE and
The methodology based on using MATLAB software to MAPE will be done based on a certain number of forecasted
apply the four different algorithms on the two cases of datasets’ load data during a specified time (24 hour for 30th of July,
size. Load datasets have been collected from ISO New England 2016) so that all the different scenarios, shown in Table I, can
Inc. [20]. The Load datasets for proposed study are a real-time be compared as however the number of data in each of case1 or
hourly load of the time horizon from 1st of January 2004 to case 2. By comparing the results, scenarios can be arranged
30th of June 2016, in New England. according to the calculated MAE and MAPE from the best to
the worst as represented in Table II. The best scenario
The used algorithms belong to Artificial Intelligence (AI) comprises of ANFIS as an algorithm, PHM as an input method,
techniques [21] and evolutionary algorithms [22] which are and case 2 as a data size.
basically stochastic search algorithms operating in the overall
solution space [23]. That allows it to move up from the local
TABLE II. ARRANGEMENT FOR THE 8 ELECTED SCENARIOS AND
optimal and offers a higher possibility to achieve optimal RESULTS FOR 15 DAYS
global solution [24]. To make sure that the obtained optimal
results are the global optimal, the proposed models have been Scenarios Results
Order
Case Algorithm Input Dataset MAE (MW) MAPE (%)
numerous run with changed parameters /coefficient, initial 1st 2 ANFIS PHM 26.617 0.222
solution range, selection methods, and crossover operators in 2nd 2 ANN 4DM 34.310 0.231
this research. Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 summarize the results of 3rd 1 ANN 4DM 148.660 0.909
calculation of MAE for the proposed scenarios [25], by column 4th 1 ANFIS 4DM 149.143 0.933
charts. 5th 2 MAACPSO MSM 206.786 1.270
6th 1 PSO MSM 219.949 1.461
7th 2 PSO PHM 358.521 2.120
8th 1 MAACPSO PHM 1017.211 6.249

To determine the effectiveness and validation of the

proposed study, the best scenario’s results will be compared
with the results of other previous studies those depend on other
types of data inputs. Therefore, both ISO-EN loads forecasted
website [26] and Electricity Load Forecasting by Ameya
Deoras created 10 Sep 2010 [27] (Updated 01 Sep 2016) were
chosen to compare the results since each of these studies uses
 the same load datasets used in this proposed study. In the first
Fig. 1. MAE (MW) for All Scenarios of Case 1. study; ISO-EN, the site presents the results of the forecasted
load directly as the time interval for which information is to be
determined, which will be used to get the value of hourly Load
Forecasting in Day 06/30/2016 to compare them with the
results of our proposed study. However it should be noted that
the site [26] does not mention the method used to forecast the
load, but the used data type has been reported in the
introduction of excel sheet such as; the date, the hour, the load
used in the settlement process, the real time Price, and the Dry-
bulb and Dew Point Temperature.
The second study is for the day-ahead system load and
price forecasting case study [28]. This script uses Neural
Networks. There is an explanation of the input used includes;
Out of Rang
 Dry bulb and Dew point temperature. day of the week and hour
Fig. 2. MAE (MW) for All Scenarios of Case 2. of the day, A flag indicating a holiday/weekend, previous day's
average load, load from the same hour the previous day, and
Load of a same hour and day from the previous week.
V. RESULTS ANALYSIS AND COMPARATIVE STUDY
Accordingly, the study was applied to the same period used in
Table (I) shows the best input method for each algorithm in this proposed study. The MAE and MAPE were calculated and
each case. The eight won scenarios will be used to determine compared. Fig. 3 illustrates the 24-hour forecasted load curve
the best scenario for short term load forecasting. for the three Comparator Studies. While Fig. 4 represents
TABLE I. THE USED HISTORICAL DATA SETS SIZE column chart the MAPE (%) for the results of them; ISO-NE
and Deoras Method and this research. By comparing these
Case Algorithm Dataset MAE (MW) MAPE (%) results with those have been obtained by the proposed study, it
ANN 4DM 148.66 0.91
PSO MSM 219.949 1.46
is clear that ANFIS as an algorithm, PHM as an input method,
1
MAACPSO PHM 1017.211 6.25 and case 2 as a data size are demonstrating the smallest error
ANFIS 4DM 149.143 0.93 value and with more accurate forecasted load.
ANN 4DM 34.31 0.23
PSO PHM 358.521 2.12
2
MAACPSO MSM 206.786 1.27
ANFIS PHM 26.617 0.22

194

 [9]
Fig. 3. 24-hour Forecasted Load Curve for Comparator Studies and Actual
Load Curve.
 using natural computing," Master’s thesis, University of Toledo, 2012.
Fig. 4. MAPE (%) For All The Three Comparator Studies.
VI. CONCLUSION AND FUTURE WORK
Short Term Load Forecasting is the main core for Energy
Management, and the Energy Management, in turn, is the basis
of Smart Grid. Hence the importance of this study where the
interest in improving the accuracy of the load forecast is the
most vital element for the system as a whole. The result of this
study comes with a new method of Load Forecasting based on
ANFIS Algorithm and simple input dataset considers the
Previous Hours Method (PHM) for two weeks (Case2) only.
This conclusion confirms some of the proposed hypotheses,
which proved that it is possible to depend on the historical data
only as it is totally enough to predict the future load. It was also
found the relation between the hourly actual load power
readings is the more useful relation to be used in load
forecasting than one of the same hours at previous days, weeks
or years. In addition, there are some sub-deductions resulting
from the study as it is found that; ANN is the best-tested
algorithm to deal with a large number of samples in the input
dataset. In the same context, The modification of PSO by using
MAACPSO enable it to achieve better results using less
number of the dataset than the results achieved by PSO.
Finally, further works may be done to complete this study by
developing a simulation for IIEMS using the proposed short
term load forecasting and test more compound scenarios with
deferent algorisms and time regions.
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