Department of Mathematics

Faculty Science and Mathematics

SSI 3013
Information and Communication Technology in Science
Assignment 3: Simulation (Drought)
Student Name & Matric Number 1. Mohamad Saharudin Bin Zakaria
D20171078230
2. Nurul Qasrina Binti Rosli
D20171078247
3. Nur Alia Farhana Binti Mohd Sabri
D20171078234
Lecturer’s Name Encik Azmi Bin Ibrahim
Class Group B
Assignment Group A

List of Content
No. Content Pages
1 Introduction of modelling and simulation 1
2 Stella 2
3 Advantages of Modelling and Simulation 2-3
4 Disadvantages of Modelling and Simulation 4-8
5 Independent Practice 8-9
6 Conclusion 9-10
7 References 10
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Introduction to Modeling and Simulation

In modelling and simulation, modelling is known as the process of representing a model

which includes its construction and working. This model is similar to a real system, which
helps the analyst predict the effect of changes to the system. In other words, modelling is
creating a model which represents a system including their properties. It is an act of building
a model.

While simulation of a system is the operation of a model in terms of time or space,

which helps analyse the performance of an existing or a proposed system. In other words,
simulation is the process of using a model to study the performance of a system. It is an act of
using a model for simulation.

Chart 1: Step of modelling simulation

Here are the steps of modelling simulation:

 Step 1. Identify the Problem

 Step 2. Formulate the Problem
 Step 3. Collect and Process Real System Data
 Step 4. Formulate and Develop a Model
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 Step 5. Validate the Model

 Step 6. Document Model for Future Use
 Step 7. Select Appropriate Experimental Design
 Step 8. Establish Experimental Conditions for Runs
 Step 9. Perform Simulation Runs
 Step 10. Interpret and Present Results
 Step 11. Recommend Further Courses of Action

Stella

Stella is one of the software that can used to run the simulation such as Stella. Stella software
are computer programme available in three version which are great Stella, small Stella and
Stella 4D that created by Robert Webb of Australia. Stella, is a software that can be used to
develops simulations needed in an easy way by the educators. Besides that, Stella models
provide endless learning opportunities to be explore and observe what will happen next,
inspiring an exciting moments or learning. Stella models also support diverse learning styles
with a wide range of storytelling features. Diagrams, charts, and animation help visual
learners discover relationships between variables in an equation.

Stella software also provides a configurable workspace comprising several panels.

Then, Stella also can be display in different view in each panel once the model has been
selected from the range available. The views can be include the measurements, symmetries
and the unfolded nets. The variety of operations may performed on any polyhedron such as
spring network relaxation, generation of convex hull and the generation of cupolaic blends
and related figure.
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Advantages of Modelling and Simulation

One of the advantages of using modelling and simulation is easy to understand as it allows to
understand how the system really operates without working on real-time systems. So, it helps
students to understanding and refining their own thought process and seeing social process.
And social interactions in action. Next, easy to test because modelling and simulation allow
to make changes into the system and their effect on the output without working on real-time
systems. So, this system can give students concrete formats to think like a scientist and do a
scientific work. The relationship that appear among the variables in the simulations allows
the students to change parameter values and develop thinking about the significant of
magnitude changes in the parameter.

Furthermore it also easy to upgrade that allow to determine the system requirements
by applying different configurations. We also easy to identifying constraints to perform
bottleneck analysis that causes delay in the work process, information, etc. Modelling and
simulation also easy to diagnose problems where certain systems are so complex that it is not
easy to understand their interaction at a time. However, Modelling and Simulation allows to
understand all the interactions and analyse their effect. Additionally, new policies, operations,
and procedures can be explored without affecting the real system.

Disadvantages of Modelling and Simulation

One of the disadvantages of modelling and simulation is the process is expensive. It caused
school difficult to supply the software for education process. Next, we requires domain
knowledge, training and experience in designing a model. Sometimes the simulation system
are difficult to conduct especially for those have no experience about the simulation system.
This situation will caused that the result and data obtain are not accurate and difficult to
interpret the data. The operations in modelling and simulation are performed on the system
using random number, hence difficult to predict the result. Simulation also requires
manpower and it is a time-consuming process. Furthermore, simulation results are difficult to
translate and it requires experts to understand.
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Independent Practice
For this assignment, we use our sample model on the issue of drought in California, which is
a severe and complex issue facing humanity by using the Stella Simulation. This model states
that the availability of water, price and population influence each other. The central stock that
was identified is the available water, with a certain rate of replenishment from rainfall and
snowpack. Agricultural production as a main consumption driver which in turn is driven by
population.

Based on the diagram below, the model of this system consists of those three variables
that have been linked to other aspects that could influence the outcome.

Diagram 1: The model of the system

From the model, intended production is only achievable if there is sufficient water. If
there is a water shortage, there is an actual production which is different from intended
production. If demand for agricultural product is met, there will be a pressure from
availability that changes the price. The price, in turn, has an effect on population, as people
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move in or out of California. However, the numbers in this model are not actual data, but
have been chosen to represent the problem of drought in general terms.
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Graph 1: Available water (GigaLitre) vs year

Based on Graph 1, from year 2000 until 2025, the available water remain constant at
1000 gigalitre. Then, from the year 2025, it is predicted to be having a decrease and increase
in the available water. There is a frequent change in the amount of available water from 2025
until year 2050.

Graph 2: Price ($/Kg) vs year

Graph 2 depicts a stable price for water which is at 1$ per kilogram from year 2000
until 2025. Then, the price is predicted would be increase to 1.90$ per kilogram starting in
year 2025 and also could be having a fluctuation in the water price based on the demand till
the year 2025.
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Graph 3: Population vs year

Graph 3 shows a steady population in year 2000 till 2025. But, from year 2025, it is
predicted that there will be a decline in the population of locals in California which could be
influenced by other factors including the water crisis.

In short, based on those three graphs, it shows that how the available water, price and
population factors influence each other. For example, in year 2025, the decrease of available
water in California, would increase the price for the water demand and this somehow can
give effect to the locals, which they would move out of California, and live at other places to
get a sufficient water supply with a descent price. The people would want to have a moderate
living to overcome this water crisis due to drought.
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CONCLUSION

In conclusion, modelling and simulation are powerful tool in education, especially in science
and mathematics. Simulation is one of the best alternative way to engage the students in
teaching and learning process as the students nowadays are more interested in technologies
and gadgets. The merits of digital simulation in education can be summarized into cognitive
benefits such as ‘knowledge’ and ‘skill’, and also into pedagogical benefits such as
‘individualized learning’. The application of modelling and simulation is important and bring
a big change in education’s world because it is applicable to students of all levels and ages
and helps students see complex relationships that would otherwise involve expensive
equipment or dangerous experiments. Next, it’s also allows for math, science, and technical
skills to be taught in an applied, integrated manner, provides students with new methods of
problem solving, and provides realistic training and skills for a multitude of career areas. It is
used extensively in science and industries. Lastly, modelling and simulation is cost effective
and reduces risks to humans.

REFERENCE

Kincaid J.P., Hamilton R., Tarr R.W., Sangani H. (2003) Simulation in Education and
Training. In: Obaidat M.S., Papadimitriou G.I. (eds) Applied System Simulation. Springer,
Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-9218-5_19

Tutorials Point. (2020). Modelling & Simulation Tutorial. Retrieved from

https://www.tutorialspoint.com/modelling_and_simulation/index.htm

Community Model Building: Drought. Exchange.iseesystems.com. (2020). Retrieved

26 November 2020, from https://exchange.iseesystems.com/public/isee/community-model-
building-drought/index.html#page1.