JOB PICTURE REMAINS SOLID

AND UNAFFECTED BY Q1
COLLAPSE
William Dunkelberg (610) 209-2955
(Based on 672 respondents to the JUNE survey of a random sample of
NFIB’s member firms, surveyed through 6/30/14)

NFIB owners increased employment by an average of 0.05 workers per firm in

June (seasonally adjusted), the ninth positive month in a row and the best string
of gains since 2006. Seasonally adjusted, 12 percent of the owners (up 1 point)
reported adding an average of 3.3 workers per firm over the past few months.
Offsetting that, 13 percent reduced employment (up 1 point) an average of 3.1
workers, producing the seasonally adjusted net gain of 0.05 workers per firm
overall. The rather substantial dent in first quarter growth did not have much of
an impact on Main Street

The remaining 75 percent of owners made no net change in employment. Fifty-

three percent of the owners hired or tried to hire in the last three months and 43
percent (81 percent of those trying to hire or hiring) reported few or no qualified
applicants for open positions. Twenty-six percent of all owners reported job
openings they could not fill in the current period (up 2 points), suggesting more
downward pressure on the unemployment rate. Fourteen percent reported using
temporary workers, unchanged for several months.
Job creation plans continued to strengthen and rose 2 percentage points to a
seasonally adjusted net 12 percent, approaching “normal” levels for a growing
economy (even with no growth last quarter). Not seasonally adjusted, 18 percent
plan to increase employment at their firm (down 3 points), and 5 percent plan
reductions.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, job creation plans continued to improve as did

the percent of owners reporting hard to fill job openings. This signals that the
jobs numbers will be solid and the unemployment rate will fall.