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Q3 STOCK GUIDE
Advanced
Selling Strategies
E X C L U S I V E LY F O R M A R K E T S M I T H M E M B E R S
investors.com/mswebinars
For our interview this month, we talked to Chris Gessel, Chief Content Officer
of Investor’s Business Daily®. As the captain of IBD’s Markets Team, Chris fol-
lows the indexes from open to close and tracks hundreds of stocks every day
using MarketSmith. He shared some insights from his decades of experience,
as well as a custom MarketSmith screen for finding new trade ideas.
In the latest edition of Good Trade / Bad Trade, we talked with MarketSmith
Senior Product Coach Arnie Gutierrez about two of his recent trades. While
he booked a nice profit jumping into the legal marijuana industry at the right
time, he also got burned by the fast-moving and volatile action of a hot tech
IPO. Arnie will break down his buy and sell points, how he held the stocks and
what he learned from each trade.
Best Returns,
The MarketSmith Team
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3
3150
3050
2954.13
2940.91
2950
2916.50
2850
2815.15
2800.18
2750
2722.27 2728.81
2691.99 200 DAY
50 DAY MOVING 2650
MOVING AVERAGE
AVERAGE
2603.54
2550
2450
2350
2346.58
1.4 B
850 M
500 M
29 13 27 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 8 22 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 28
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 2019 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
NASDAQ Composite
CLOSE 8006.24
8700
8500
8300
8176.08
8133.30 8107.38
8100
7933.31
7900
7700
7604.24 7486.51
7500
7419.56
7332.92 7300
200 DAY
7292.21
50 DAY
MOVING
MOVING 7100
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
6900
6922.83
6830.76
6700
6500
6300
6190.16
6100
2.5 B
1.6 B
850 M
29 13 27 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 8 22 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 28
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 2019 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
4
Table of Contents
Market Charts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Institutional-Quality Movers*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Globant SA (GLOB). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Connect with Us . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
*All screen results are computer-generated and were run on June 28, 2019.
5
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3 l Feature Article
Feature Article:
Advanced Selling Strategies
These selling rules will serve you well for maximizing gains and
minimizing risk.
Here are a few technical indicators you can use as early signs that you
might want to sell some or all of a position.
Breaking below the 50-day moving average line. This is similar to the
21-day line strategy above, but it indicates a stronger sell signal. Many of
the MarketSmith Coaches will use a 50-day line break on heavy volume as
an indicator to sell the remainder of their position.
6
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3
Wrench Icon
Moving
Averages
7
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3 l Q & A: Chris Gessel
Q: Let’s talk current market. Which sectors are you particularly bullish on as
we head into Q3?
8
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3
Pictured: SMH, an ETF that tracks the semiconductor index. Notice the steep decline
starting in April 2019 and subsequent strong recovery.
Semiconductors are interesting right now. The sector rallied off the
bottom of the December correction with the rest of the market. Aside
from a brief pullback in March, this sector was just heading up and up
until late April. This is about the time that Xilinx (XLNX) topped.
Xilinx, at the time, was the leading chip stock. It had broken out on
earnings the previous quarter and was doing well. Then it missed on Q1
earnings and gapped down 17% the next day. That day, April 25, kicked
off the correction in chips, which you can see by looking at SMH [an
ETF based on the semiconductor index]. It was kind of the canary in the
coalmine for the Nasdaq.
What’s been nice lately is that chips have rallied off the bottom and are
gaining steam. Remember, the biggest thing affecting the market right
now is the trade war with China. If a trade deal gets done, I would expect
chips to continue higher. They were an early leader before and could be a
leader again.
9
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3 l Q & A: Chris Gessel
Q: What are some cautionary signs that tell you a market uptrend isn’t
“working” like it should?
The first thing to look for is when we’re just starting a confirmed uptrend.
The first line in the sand is the low of the follow-through day. I would put
an alert at the bottom of that day. Our research shows that if you close
under the low of the FTD it doesn’t necessarily mean the rally is going to
fail, but at the very least, it means you’re going to have some trouble for
a while.
The next real test for the Nasdaq and the S&P: Can they take out their
recent highs? The Nasdaq has had some bigger swings, but if you look at
the S&P, it peaked in January 2018 at 2872. We’re only 3% above that
level almost 18 months later. The broad market has really struggled to
make new highs. If we can get a clear move above the old highs, that will
be a really positive sign for the uptrend.
Q: Which IPOs have surprised you most this year, both positively and
negatively?
I love IPOs. I’ve talked about them a lot on the Investing with IBD®
podcast, and really when anyone gives me a moment to speak.
At least once a week, I go back and look at all the companies that have
come public in the last month. I sort them by date to see the most recent.
Since so many IPOs these days don’t have earnings, what I do look for is
really strong sales growth.
Chewy (CHWY) is the latest example. It’s still losing money, but it’s got
$3.5 billion in sales. So this is not your average startup. They’re really
growing sales. In the last quarter, sales growth accelerated from 59% to
67% and they had their first $1 billion quarter.
10
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3
Q: In this issue, we’re covering advanced selling strategies. What are a few of
the technical signals that tell you it might be time to shrink or sell a position?
If you’ve got a stock that’s fundamentally strong, it’s acting really well,
and you’re up 20% but don’t want to take your profits just yet, let it ride
the 10-day moving average line. Wait until you get a close below that line
11
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3 l Q & A: Chris Gessel
before you take profits. If you’ve got strong conviction, maybe you just
sell 30% or 50%.
Now let’s talk about high-conviction stocks that have a high probability
of pulling back. No one wants to give up on their biggest winners, but it’s
not a bad idea to hedge. For example, what if you’re holding one of these
“super stocks” as the market is going into a correction? It’s logical to
expect a pullback.
Think of it this way: you already have a huge profit on the position. If it
goes up, you’re still making money on the stock, although not as much
because of the put. If it goes sideways, that’s not a big problem, you’re
still up big on the stock.
Now let’s say the stock turns into a pumpkin and dives down. Instead of
losing your profit, you’re making even more money with the put than you
are losing on the stock because the delta is rising as the put gains value. If
the stock gets support at, say, the 50-day line, you can book the put profit
and ride the stock back up.
Q: One last question: I hear you’re an avid deep-sea fisherman. Which requires
more patience, fishing or investing?
Investing. Because if the fish aren’t biting you can always start drinking.
12
Bigger Better IPOs
*All screen results are computer-generated and were run on June 28, 2019. This screen can also be found on
marketsmith.com in shared screens.
13
Zoom Video Comm Cl A (ZM)
ZOOM VIDEO COMM CL A(ZM ) NASDAQ 32.1 SHRS / 31.8 FLT / AVG VOL 0 $88.79(OH -17%)
COMPUTER SFTWR-ENTERPRSE zoom.com
6/19 EXPECTS Q2 FY20 NON-GAAP EARNINGS OF $0.01 TO $0.02 PER
SHARE ON REVENUES OF $129 MIL TO $130 MIL.
SHORT INT 2.5 DAYS +7% GROWTH RATE DEBT 0% 159.03 X BK VALUE FUNDS
OPTIONS ON EARNINGS STAB NEW CEO INVENTORY TO. BANKS
UP/DOWN 2.0 EPS RANK 76 TIMELINESS A R&D 10.0% MGMT 1%
EX-DIV PE 1505 (82.2XS&P)ACC/DIST B RET ON EQUITY 5% ALPHA N/A
YIELD 5 YR PE 2997 - 3708 SMR RATING C CASH FLOW $1.1 BETA N/A
EARNINGS (JAN) HI LO GROUP REL STR 99 RS EPS IPO 4/18/19 $36.00 COMPOSITE RATING 97
13$ Shopify SHOP 99 75 QTR 1 QTR 2 PRICE
14 Akerna KERN 99 38 SCALE
15 Paycom PAYC 98 96
16 Coupa Soft COUP 98 76
ProsHldg PRO 98 45 120
17 -0.01 $
18 -0.01 QTR 4
19 0.03
20 0.03 EST +0% ↑ 110
QTR 3
100
90
80
70
60
96 50
40
VOLUME
10 M
R S LINE
VS SP500 4M
1.5 M
13 27 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 8 22 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 28
AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 19 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
EPS DUE 8/29 QUARTER ENDED JUL 31,18 QUARTER ENDED OCT 31,18 QUARTER ENDED JAN 31,19 QUARTER ENDED APR 30,19
EARNINGS $ 0.01 VS -0.01 #+200% 0.01 VS -0.01 #+200% 0.01 VS -0.01 #+200% 0.03 VS -0.01 #+400%
SALES MIL. $ 90.2 VS 37.9 +138% 90.2 VS 37.9 +138% 90.2 VS 37.9 +138% 122.0 VS 60.1 +103%
DIVIDEND-PE N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3708X --2997X
65.30
60
60.02
48.24 50
44.00
42.63 42.48
98 40
33.90 34.21
33.00 30
30.72
20
R S LINE
VS SP500
VOLUME
3.5 M
1.2 M
400 K
13 27 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 8 22 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 28
AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 19 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
EPS DUE 9/5 QUARTER ENDED JUL 31,18 QUARTER ENDED OCT 31,18 QUARTER ENDED JAN 31,19 QUARTER ENDED APR 30,19
EARNINGS $ -0.05 VS -0.08 N/A 0.01 VS -0.06 #+117% 0.09 VS -0.05 #+280% 0.05 VS -0.04 #+225%
SALES MIL. $ 56.2 VS 36.5 +54% 63.3 VS 39.9 +59% 74.3 VS 45.0 +65% 79.1 VS 49.2 +61%
DIVIDEND-PE N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 7294X --4908X
14
Docusign Inc (DOCU) MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3
DOCUSIGN INC(DOCU) NASDAQ 173.8 SHRS / 135.6 FLT / AVG VOL 2.59MIL $49.71(OH -27%)
COMPUTER SFTWR-ENTERPRSE DocuSign.com
PROVIDES E-SIGNATURE SOLUTION THAT ENABLES BUSINESSES TO DIG
6/19 EXPECTS Q2 FY20 REVENUES OF $218 MIL TO $222 MIL.
ITALLY PREPARE, EXECUTE, AND ACT ON AGREEMENTS.
SHORT INT 3.5 DAYS -14% GROWTH RATE DEBT 71% 14.06 X BK VALUE FUNDS 35%
OPTIONS ON EARNINGS STAB NEW CEO INVENTORY TO. BANKS 0%
UP/DOWN 1.1 EPS RANK 84 TIMELINESS B R&D 26.5% MGMT 14%
EX-DIV PE 298 (16.2XS&P) ACC/DIST C RET ON EQUITY 13% ALPHA -0.02
YIELD 5 YR PE 463 - 3294 SMR RATING B CASH FLOW $0.58 BETA 1.61
EARNINGS (JAN) HI LO GROUP REL STR 99 RS EPS IPO 4/27/18 $29.00 COMPOSITE RATING 89
Shopify SHOP 99 75 PRICE
13$ QTR 1 QTR 2
14 Akerna KERN 99 38 SCALE
15 Paycom PAYC 98 96
16 -0.79 $ Coupa Soft COUP 98 76
17 -0.74 ProsHldg PRO 98 45 80
18 -0.08 68 35
QTR 4
19 0.11
20 0.19 EST +73% ↓
QTR 3 68.35 70
59.62 60
58.37
56.42
50
51.14 50.92
50.06 50.02
43.35
45.67
40
38.28
36.25
35.06
30
48
R S LINE
VS SP500
20
VOLUME
6M
2M
700 K
13 27 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 8 22 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 28
AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 19 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
EPS DUE 9/5 QUARTER ENDED JUL 31,18 QUARTER ENDED OCT 31,18 QUARTER ENDED JAN 31,19 QUARTER ENDED APR 30,19
EARNINGS $ 0.03 VS -0.01 #+400% 0.01 VS -0.03 #+133% 0.06 VS 0.01 +500% 0.07 VS 0.01 +600%
SALES MIL. $ 167.0 VS 125.5 +33% 178.4 VS 130.6 +37% 199.7 VS 148.9 +34% 214.0 VS 155.8 +37%
DIVIDEND-PE N/A N/A N/A 3294X --1914X N/A 2258X --604X N/A 966X --463X
41.76
40
33.59
29.70 30
27.30
98
23.37
20
20.60
10
R S LINE VOLUME
VS SP500 3.5 M
800 K
180 K
13 27 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 8 22 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 28
AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 19 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
EPS DUE 8/29 QUARTER ENDED JUL 31,18 QUARTER ENDED OCT 31,18 QUARTER ENDED JAN 31,19 QUARTER ENDED APR 30,19
EARNINGS $ -0.15 VS -0.06 N/A -0.15 VS -0.08 N/A -0.13 VS -0.13 N/A -0.16 VS -0.19 N/A
SALES MIL. $ 57.8 VS 41.1 +41% 62.0 VS 44.2 +40% 69.3 VS 46.3 +49% 75.8 VS 51.6 +47%
DIVIDEND-PE N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
15
Avalara Inc (AVLR)
AVALARA INC(AVLR) NYSE 73.5 SHRS / 42.6 FLT / AVG VOL 1.20MIL $72.20(OH -4%)
COMP SFTWR-SPEC ENTERPRS avalara.com
DEVELOPS CLOUD-BASED SOFTWARE SOLUTIONS DESIGNED TO IMPROVE
2/19 NAMED AMIT MATHRADAS COO.
ACCURACY AND EFFICIENCY BY AUTOMATING
SHORT INT 2.4 DAYS -33% GROWTH RATE DEBT 0% 48.44 X BK VALUE FUNDS 21%
OPTIONS ON EARNINGS STAB NEW CEO INVENTORY TO. BANKS 0%
UP/DOWN 1.2 EPS RANK 33 TIMELINESS B R&D 19.1% MGMT 21%
EX-DIV PE ACC/DIST B RET ON EQUITY N/A ALPHA 0.2
YIELD 5 YR PE SMR RATING D CASH FLOW $-0.56 BETA 1.38
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LO GROUP REL STR 89 RS EPS IPO 6/15/18 $24.00 COMPOSITE RATING 85
Atlassian TEAM 97 99 PRICE
13$ QTR 1 QTR 2
14 Appfolio APPF 97 22 SCALE
15 -1.18 $ ClarivateA CCC 96 5
16 -0.88 Veritone VERI 95 24 75.33
MicroFocus MFGP 94 99 74.90
17 -0.58
18 -0.68 59 28
↑ QTR 4
19 -0.18 EST 70
20 0.04 EST ↓
QTR 3
63.76
60
53.88
53.92
50
44.90
98 40
32.82
32.10 PPO 30
28.89
28.09 PO
R S LINE
VS SP500 20
VOLUME
1.5 M
450 K
138 K
13 27 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 8 22 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 28
AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 19 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
EPS DUE 8/9 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,18 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,19
EARNINGS $ -0.19 VS -0.17 N/A -0.14 VS -0.09 N/A -0.19 VS -0.15 N/A -0.01 VS -0.16 N/A
SALES MIL. $ 63.7 VS 50.9 +25% 69.5 VS 55.3 +26% 76.9 VS 58.0 +33% 85.0 VS 61.4 +38%
DIVIDEND-PE N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
40
37.67
33.98 36.76
30
28.25
97
22.16 22.01 20
20.50 20.34
PPO
PO
10
R S LINE VOLUME
VS SP500
1.8 M
500 K
132 K
13 27 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 8 22 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 28
AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 19 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
EPS DUE 9/4 QUARTER ENDED JUL 31,18 QUARTER ENDED OCT 31,18 QUARTER ENDED JAN 31,19 QUARTER ENDED APR 30,19
EARNINGS $ -0.08 VS -0.07 N/A -0.11 VS -0.09 N/A -0.07 VS -0.07 N/A -0.12 VS -0.11 N/A
SALES MIL. $ 42.4 VS 26.7 +59% 46.9 VS 29.4 +59% 52.2 VS 33.0 +58% 56.2 VS 36.3 +55%
DIVIDEND-PE N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
16
Pinterest Inc Cl A (PINS) MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3
PINTEREST INC CL A(PINS) NYSE 86.3 SHRS / 85.4 FLT / AVG VOL 0 $27.22(OH -22%)
INTERNET-CONTENT pinterest.com
PROVIDES A VISUAL DISCOVERY PLATFORM THAT HELPS USERS TO DIS
5/19 EXPECTS 2019 REVENUES OF $1.055 BIL TO $1.080 BIL.
COVER IDEAS FOR VARIOUS PROJECTS AND INTERESTS
SHORT INT 1.3 DAYS +23% GROWTH RATE DEBT 0% 16.96 X BK VALUE FUNDS
OPTIONS ON EARNINGS STAB NEW CEO INVENTORY TO. BANKS
UP/DOWN 1.8 EPS RANK 54 TIMELINESS C R&D 33.3% MGMT 1%
EX-DIV PE ACC/DIST B RET ON EQUITY N/A ALPHA N/A
YIELD 5 YR PE SMR RATING D CASH FLOW $-0.43 BETA N/A
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LO GROUP REL STR 63 RS EPS IPO 4/18/19 $19.00 COMPOSITE RATING 73
13$ Sea Ltd A SE 99 11 QTR 1 QTR 2 PRICE
14 DHI Grp DHX 98 18 SCALE
15 Snap A SNAP 97 46
16 -0.34 $ Match Grou MTCH 96 88
17 -0.24 Opera Ltd OPRA 96 37
18 -0.11 QTR 4
19 -0.21 EST ↓
20 ↓
QTR 3
35
29.81 30
25
BARRONS
23.60
4/15/19
20
82
VOLUME
25 M
8M
R S LINE
VS SP500 2.5 M
13 27 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 8 22 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 28
AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 19 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
EPS DUE 7/28 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,18 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,19
EARNINGS $ -0.07 VS -0.07 N/A -0.03 VS -0.07 N/A 0.09 VS 0.01 +800% -0.07 VS -0.09 N/A
SALES MIL. $ 161.2 VS 101.1 +59% 190.2 VS 116.0 +64% 273.2 VS 173.4 +58% 201.9 VS 131.4 +54%
DIVIDEND-PE N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
99
20
VOLUME
8M
R S LINE
VS SP500
4M
13 27 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 8 22 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 28
AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 19 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
EPS DUE 7/28 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,18 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,19
EARNINGS $ -0.13 VS -0.19 N/A -0.16 VS -0.12 N/A -0.13 VS -0.12 N/A -0.11 VS -0.10 N/A
SALES MIL. $ 17.4 VS 5.6 +212% 26.3 VS 9.4 +180% 31.5 VS 11.5 +175% 40.2 VS 12.8 +215%
DIVIDEND-PE N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
17
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3 l Good Trade/Bad Trade
Stock Background: Canopy is a story play, plain and simple. I had been
researching the legal marijuana industry for stock ideas. As more and
more states (and entire countries like Canada) legalize marijuana for
medical and recreational use, this market will continue to grow to satisfy
huge new demand.
CGC is positioned as one of the early leaders in this field. Other early
leading stocks in this industry, like TLRY and CRON, were getting a lot
of headlines at the time. CGC, however, looked like they had the best
plan for sustained growth: they acquired major competitors to increase
their market share and brought in senior executives from companies like
Amazon and Walmart.
Technical Picture: Canopy Growth went public in late May 2018. Because
of the fundamental story, I had it on my watchlist from day one. I monitored
it as it built a cup base with a buy point at 36.65. I like to set price alerts for
a dollar below the pivot, which you can do in MarketSmith by hovering over
a base pattern, right-clicking and picking “Set Alert.” Then you just subtract
$1 from the pivot price, turn on email notifications and click “Done.”
18
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3
My Buy Point: August 20, 2018 at 37. CGC quickly hit the 36.55 buy
point on huge volume (+357%) and I bought in.
How I Held It: This was an easy one to hold—at first. I watched as it rode
the 10-day moving average line up for a couple weeks. A gain over 25%
in just a few weeks showed me this was a prime candidate for the 8-week
hold rule, so that’s what I did. It got really hard to hold on September 13
during a huge drop. CGC pierced the 21-day line in big volume but closed
above it, though it gave back over 13% in the process. I still wanted to give
it more room based on the story, so I held.
My Sell Point: October 19, 2018 at 46. CGC broke down through the
50-day line on above-average volume, which was my cue to sell. This was
the 4th day in a row with a big loss, so that only reinforced the fact that I
should book my profits on this trade. I still liked the story, but the technical
indicators were too loud to ignore. It went on to close below my original
buy point just 10 days later, so I don’t regret the move.
My 3 Takeaways:
• As a stock moves up more and more, do more research on it. I felt this
stock was the strongest of the legal marijuana industry, giving me
confidence to keep holding.
• Watch for technical sell signals before you give all your profits back.
When CGC broke the 50-day, I walked away and cashed in my chips.
19
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3 l Good Trade/Bad Trade
Stock Background: Dropbox was one of the bigger-name tech IPOs from
2018. They provide cloud storage to over 500 million users across 180
countries. I was familiar with the product, since I personally use it, but
I was also aware that the product isn’t exactly unique. Competitors like
Box (BOX), Microsoft (MSFT) OneDrive, Google (GOOGL) Drive and
Amazon (AMZN) Drive can all give DBX a well-financed fight in the cloud
storage arena.
As a rule, I don’t buy IPO stocks on day one; I wait for a base to form
before buying. IPOs can be very volatile, almost speculative, so I prefer
ones that are already showing profitability. In their first earnings report
as a public company, Dropbox had earnings per share of 0.08. That’s not
huge by any means, but it is positive, and a heck of a lot better than some
other tech IPOs (looking at you, UBER and LYFT).
My Buy Point: June 14, 2018 at 35. When DBX blasted through a 34.93
buy point on sky-high volume (+719%), I bought a position.
How I Held It: Four days later, I was already up over 20%. That’s what
you call a nice jump. Now what I should have done was sell on June 18
when I would have been up almost 25% at the intraday high. That’s the
classic William O’Neil sell rule: take profits at 20-25%. But I got greedy
and decided to hold for a bigger run.
20
MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3
Buy point: 35
Reason: Breakout
on huge volume
My Sell Point: July 5, 2018 at 31.50. Most stocks will retest the pivot
price after a breakout. DBX didn’t just retest it; it broke through the
pivot on June 22 like somebody dropped an anvil. I sold my position on
July 5 when it pierced the 50-day line.
My 3 Takeaways:
• My big mistake was not taking 25% profits when I had them. I turned
a winner into a loser.
• Month-old IPOs are not known for slow and steady gains. Again,
don’t be afraid to take profits and buy back in later, if a good setup
presents itself.
• Especially with IPOs, using technical sell signals (like retesting the pivot
or breaking the 21-/50-day lines) can help prevent a complete roundtrip.
21
Institutional-Quality Movers
*All screen results are computer-generated and were run on June 28, 2019. This screen can also be found on
marketsmith.com in shared screens.
22
eHealth Inc (EHTH) MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3
EHEALTH INC(EHTH) NASDAQ 22.6 SHRS / 21.5 FLT / AVG VOL 533250 $86.10(OH 0%)
INSURANCE-BROKERS ehealth.com
HEALTH INSURANCE BROKERS FOR INDIVIDUALS, FAMILIES/SMALL BUS 4/19 RAISED 2019 ADJUSTED EARNINGS GUIDANCE TO $1.54 TO $1.73 PER
INESSES VIA 6 WEBSITES IN 50 STATES, D.C./CHINA. DILUTED SHARE ON REVENUES TO $315 MIL TO $335 MIL.
SHORT INT 3 DAYS +1% GROWTH RATE DEBT 2% 6.43 X BK VALUE FUNDS 43%
OPTIONS ON NY/PH EARNINGS STAB NEW CEO INVENTORY TO. BANKS 0%
UP/DOWN 1.4 EPS RANK 56 TIMELINESS A R&D 12.7% MGMT 5%
EX-DIV PE 62 (3.6XS&P) ACC/DIST A RET ON EQUITY 7% ALPHA 0.53
YIELD 5 YR PE 7 - 218 SMR RATING B CASH FLOW $1.29 BETA 1.13
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LO GROUP REL STR 98 RS EPS (W) COMPOSITE RATING 98
14 ErieIndmty ERIE 98 86 PRICE
13$ 0.37 $ 48 QTR 1 QTR 2
14 -0.01 63 18 Fanhua FANH 93 84 SCALE
15 0.43 25 8 Aon AON 92 82
16 0.17 15 6 WillisTowe WLTW 90 93
17 1.69 28 10 GallaghrAr AJG 88 77 90
18 1.00 40 13
↑ QTR 4
19 1.67 EST +67%
20 2.07 EST +24% ↓
80
QTR 3
73.71
67.44 70
60
53.27 50
49.19
40.71
99 40
32.96
30
PPO
25.98
22.29 20
PO
10
VOLUME
R S LINE
VS SP500 650 K
174 K
52 K
13 27 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 8 22 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 28
AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 19 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
EPS DUE*7/26 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,18 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,19
EARNINGS $ -0.40 VS 0.01 N/A -0.22 VS -0.04 N/A 1.61 VS 1.57 +3% 0.33 VS -0.07 #+571%
SALES MIL. $ 32.7 VS 34.6 -6% 40.8 VS 31.5 +30% 134.9 VS 83.1 +62% 68.8 VS 43.1 +60%
DIVIDEND-PE N/A 16X -- 8X N/A 31X -- 15X N/A 46X -- 26X N/A 75X -- 41X
200
180
178.30
161.50 173.60
160
149.00
140
98
120
97.87 100
105.03 105.34 102.35
80
83.66
60
R S LINE VOLUME
VS SP500 3.5 M
1.2 M
400 K
13 27 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 8 22 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 28
AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 19 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
EPS DUE 8/9 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,18 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,19
EARNINGS $ 0.60 VS 0.52 +15% 0.65 VS 0.35 +86% 1.09 VS 0.54 +102% 0.49 VS 0.34 +44%
SALES MIL. $ 112.3 VS 72.8 +54% 118.8 VS 79.4 +50% 160.5 VS 102.7 +56% 121.0 VS 85.7 +41%
DIVIDEND-PE N/A 54X -- 29X N/A 88X -- 48X N/A 83X -- 48X N/A 80X -- 51X
23
CyberArk Software Ltd (CYBR)
*CYBERARK SOFTWARE LTD(CYBR) NASDAQ 35.0 SHRS / 21.7 FLT / AVG VOL 954040 $127.84(OH -7%)
COMPUTER SFTWR-SECURITY cyberark.com
ISRAELI PROVIDER OF NETWORK SECURITY SOFTWARE FOCUSED ON PRO 5/19 EXPECTS 2019 NON-GAAP EARNINGS OF $2.10 TO $2.16 PER DILUTED
TECTING PRIVILEGED ACCOUNTS SHARE ON REVENUES OF $415.0 MIL TO $419.0 MIL.
SHORT INT 1.2 DAYS -12% GROWTH RATE +41% DEBT 0% 12.63 X BK VALUE FUNDS 33%
OPTIONS ON EARNINGS STAB 27 NEW CEO INVENTORY TO. BANKS 1%
UP/DOWN 1.4 EPS RANK 99 TIMELINESS A R&D 16.2% MGMT 38%
EX-DIV PE 55 (3.1XS&P) ACC/DIST C RET ON EQUITY 19% ALPHA 0.26
YIELD 5 YR PE 31 - 144 SMR RATING A CASH FLOW $2.3 BETA 1.29
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LO GROUP REL STR 94 RS EPS IPO 9/24/14 $16.00 COMPOSITE RATING 99
Okta A OKTA 99 12 PRICE
13$ 0.28 $ QTR 1 QTR 2
14 0.49 47 22 Zscaler ZS 98 76 SCALE
15 1.00 76 33 Digimrc DMRC 98 19
16 1.26 59 31 Zix ZIXI 97 70
97 63 138.73 140
17 1.16 55 39 Rapid7 RPD
135.58
18 2.06 84 40
↑ QTR 4
19 2.16 EST +5%
20 2.54 EST +18% ↑ 130
QTR 3
120
118.50
110
100
90
84.21
81.24
79.16 97 80
69.97
70
450 K
148 K
13 27 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 8 22 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 28
AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 19 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
EPS DUE 8/7 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,18 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,19
EARNINGS $ 0.36 VS 0.21 +71% 0.48 VS 0.25 +92% 0.89 VS 0.41 +117% 0.56 VS 0.32 +75%
SALES MIL. $ 77.7 VS 57.5 +35% 84.7 VS 64.8 +31% 109.1 VS 80.4 +36% 95.9 VS 71.8 +34%
DIVIDEND-PE N/A 57X -- 42X N/A 60X -- 46X N/A 61X -- 41X N/A 58X -- 44X
Globant SA (GLOB)
*GLOBANT SA(GLOB) NYSE 35.9 SHRS / 33.4 FLT / AVG VOL 420160 $101.05(OH -4%)
COMPUTER-TECH SERVICES globant.com
LUXEMBOURG PROVIDER OF IT SERVICES WITH 40 CENTERS IN ARGENT 5/19 EXPECTS 2019 ADJUSTED EARNINGS OF $2.13 TO $2.21 PER DILUTED
INA, URUGUAY, COLOMBIA, BRAZIL, MEXICO, PERU SHARE ON REVENUES OF $638 MIL TO $646 MIL.
SHORT INT 5 DAYS -28% GROWTH RATE +27% DEBT 0% 13.73 X BK VALUE FUNDS 48%
OPTIONS ON EARNINGS STAB 17 NEW CEO INVENTORY TO. BANKS 0%
UP/DOWN 2.4 EPS RANK 96 TIMELINESS A R&D N/A MGMT 6%
EX-DIV PE 53 (3.0XS&P) ACC/DIST B RET ON EQUITY 21% ALPHA 0.2
YIELD 5 YR PE 18 - 45 SMR RATING A CASH FLOW $2.35 BETA 1.52
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LO GROUP REL STR 83 RS EPS IPO 7/18/14 $10.00 COMPOSITE RATING 99
Endava A DAVA 97 97 PRICE
13$ 0.44∆ $ QTR 1 QTR 2
14 0.77∆ 15 10 CSP CSPI 96 20 SCALE
15 0.98∆ 38 13 Sapiens SPNS 95 86
16 1.09 47 22 Perficient PRFT 95 80
17 1.28 47 30 CDW CDW 92 96
18 1.74 66 42
↓ QTR 4
19 2.20 EST +26% 100
20 2.69 EST +22% ↓
QTR 3
90
80
74.00
75.00
70
66.41
67.60
98
59.97 59.92
60
53.62 53.24 50
50.91
48.95
46.30
R S LINE
40
VS SP500 VOLUME
1M
300 K
96 K
13 27 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 8 22 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 28
AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 19 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
EPS DUE 8/23 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,18 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,19
EARNINGS $ 0.40 VS 0.26 +54% 0.46 VS 0.37 +24% 0.50 VS 0.39 +28% 0.50 VS 0.38 +32%
SALES MIL. $ 127.9 VS 99.6 +28% 134.6 VS 109.7 +23% 140.1 VS 115.4 +21% 146.2 VS 119.7 +22%
DIVIDEND-PE N/A 41X -- 33X N/A 43X -- 35X N/A 39X -- 30X N/A 43X -- 31X
24
Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd (KL) MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q3
*KIRKLAND LAKE GOLD LTD(KL ) NYSE 209.7 SHRS / 201.3 FLT / AVG VOL 1.61MIL $42.92(OH -2%)
MINING-GOLD/SILVER/GEMS klgold.com
CANADIAN FIRM ENGAGED IN THE PROVISION OF MINING AND MINERAL 3/19 NAMED JEFFREY PARR INTERIM CHRMN, EFFECTIVE MAY 7, 2019,
EXPLORATION IN CANADA AND AUSTRALIA. REPLACING ERIC SPROTT WHO WILL RETIRE.
SHORT INT 3.6 DAYS -6% GROWTH RATE +181% DEBT 2% 7.77 X BK VALUE FUNDS 39%
OPTIONS ON EARNINGS STAB 57 NEW CEO INVENTORY TO. 18.2X BANKS 1%
UP/DOWN 1.4 EPS RANK 99 TIMELINESS A R&D 6.5% MGMT 4%
EX-DIV 6/27 PE 26 (1.5XS&P) ACC/DIST B RET ON EQUITY 24% ALPHA 0.32
YIELD 0.4% 5 YR PE 16 - 32 SMR RATING A CASH FLOW $2 BETA -0.26
EARNINGS (DEC) HI LO GROUP REL STR 84 RS EPS COMPOSITE RATING 99
Tanzanian TRX 99 25 PRICE
13$ QTR 1 QTR 2
14 GoldFields GFI 98 77 SCALE
15 0.08 $ AnglogoldA AU 98 76
SibanyeGol SBGL 98 5 50
16 0.32
17 0.75 15 10 NovaGold NG 96 40
18 1.34 26 13
↓ QTR 4
19 2.23 EST +66%
20 2.25 EST +1% ↑
QTR 3
40
36.74
30
30.57
29.15
23.86
22.34
98
20
18.12
17.26
R S LINE 10
VS SP500 VOLUME
5.5 M
1.6 M
500 K
13 27 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 8 22 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 28
AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 19 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
EPS DUE 8/1 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,18 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,19
EARNINGS $ 0.30 VS 0.19 +58% 0.29 VS 0.17 +71% 0.52 VS 0.31 +68% 0.53 VS 0.25 +112%
SALES MIL. $ 214.7 VS 189.9 +13% 222.7 VS 176.7 +26% 280.3 VS 212.4 +32% 304.9 VS 198.2 +54%
DIVIDEND-PE $0.02 24X -- 19X $0.02 25X -- 17X $0.03 23X -- 16X $0.03 30X -- 21X
160
143.55 140
130.60 130.01
125.55
120
98
99.48
100
DIV
INC 80
83.03
78.78
60
R S LINE VOLUME
VS SP500
2.8 M
1M
350 K
13 27 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 8 22 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 28
AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 19 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
EPS DUE 8/9 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,18 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,19
EARNINGS $ 0.23 VS 0.99 -77% 0.48 VS 0.28 +71% 0.40 VS 0.95 -58% 0.66 VS 0.13 +408%
SALES MIL. $ 56.2 VS 102.5 -45% 77.6 VS 61.7 +26% 70.1 VS 115.9 -39% 87.8 VS 43.6 +101%
DIVIDEND-PE $0.06 50X -- 34X $0.06 82X -- 35X $0.06 79X -- 46X $0.10 131X -- 44X
25
Features Highlight: Smart Alerts
26
volume 50% or more above average. The 50-day Break alert only triggers
for stocks that have broken out of a base and had been in an uptrend
prior to the break.
10-day SMA triggers when a stock is above the 10-day moving average
and pulling back. Breaking out and staying above the 10-day SMA, while
continuing to bounce higher, can signal strong momentum for a stock run.
21-day SMA triggers when a stock is above the 21-day moving average
and pulling back. If a stock falls below the 21-day line, it might be a sign
to exit the position or wait for institutional support.
27
Resources
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for you. Best of all, this service is free with your MarketSmith subscription!
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as practical how-to guides on research routines and watch lists.
28
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