Electronic Keno

Project 3

Overview and Rationale

This assignment is designed to provide you with hands-on experience in using discrete and
continuous probability distributions. In this assignment you will use technology to
generate random samples and explore the samples’ relationship with the underlying
population. Finally, you will have an opportunity to apply the Central Limit Theorem to
inferential statistics.

Course Outcomes

This assignment is directly linked to the following key learning outcomes from the course
syllabus:

CO2: Create distributions and graphical representation based on given data and identify
which distribution models best fit the data

CO3: Apply the theory of probability to calculate events’ likelihoods, understanding the
differences between experimental and theoretical probabilities (the Law of Large
Numbers), and calculate posterior probabilities by using the Bayes’ Law with emphasis on
applications

CO7: Interpret meaningful relationships and patterns in the data in relation to a given
business question

Assignment Summary

Read the scenario below and follow the instructions in the project description below (Parts
1 and 2) to analyze the data presented in the Excel workbook (Module 3
Project_Keno_v1.xlsx). Complete all parts in the designated Excel workbook. Submit both
the report and the Excel workbook. The Excel workbook contains all statistical work. The
report should include all your findings along with important analysis.

Project Description
The game of Keno: keno is an ancient Chinese game that has become popular in recent
years. In one electronic version of this game, a player selects 20 numbers from the set of
numbers 1 through 100. The computer then randomly draws another set of 20 numbers
from the set 1 through 100, and the player is rewarded according to how many of his
selected numbers have been matched by the 20 numbers drawn by the computer.

Part 1

Let X be the number of matches between a player’s 20 selected numbers and the 20
numbers drawn by the computer. Then X may range from 0 (no match) to 20 (all match)
and follows a hyper-geometric probability distribution.

Complete all of the following steps (a – j) in worksheet Part 1 of the Excel workbook
provided. All cells should contain formulas.

a. Construct a tabular probability distribution for X in column E of the worksheet.

b. Construct a tabular cumulative probability distribution for X in column F of the
worksheet.
c. Create a graphical probability distribution for X.
d. Create a graphical cumulative probability distribution for X.
e. Calculate the theoretical expected value (mean), the theoretical variance, and the
theoretical standard deviation of X in the spaces provided for those quantities. Interpret
those values in your Word report
f. In column M of the worksheet, use the Excel function “=RAND()” to generate 1000
random values according to the standard uniform probability distribution.
g. In column N of the worksheet, use the Excel “=VLOOKUP()” function along with the
available tabular cumulative distribution of part (b) to randomly generate 1000 values
of X according to the described Hyper-geometric probability distribution.
h. Calculate the experimental (simulated) expected value (mean), the experimental
variance, and the experimental standard deviation of X in the spaces provided for those
quantities.
i. Complete the table in columns Q, R, and S of the worksheet. In completing this table,
you should calculate the experimental means successively after n = 20, 40, 60, 80, 100,
200, 300, 400, 500, 600, 700, 800, 900, and 1000 simulations. It is natural that the
calculated experimental means are refreshed after each new operation in the
worksheet. For the Theoretical mean of X in column S, use the fixed value of the
theoretical mean calculated in part (e).
j. Create a line plot of the Experimental mean values versus the number of simulations
(n). Add the horizontal line plot displaying the theoretical mean of X. Use the f9 function
of your keyboard (Mac: fn+f9) to run several simulations of the successive experimental
means. Interpret your observation in the context of the Law of Large Numbers (as the
number of simulations become larger, the experimental values of the means approach
to their theoretical value).

Part 2

Complete all of the following steps (a – i) in worksheet Part 2 of the Excel workbook
provided.

a. A normal population is given in column E of the worksheet. Calculate the mean, the
variance, and the standard deviation of this population in the designated cells.
b. Construct a Relative Frequency Histogram of the given population. Discuss the shape of
the distribution.
c. Using the random sampling method described in the Instructor Perspective (or
otherwise; e.g., using the Data Analysis ToolPak), randomly draw 30 samples with each
sample consisting of 30 measurements from this population. These samples will occupy
columns N through AQ.
d. For each sample, calculate the sample mean, the sample variance, and the sample
standard deviation in the designated cells.
e. Calculate the average of 30 sample means, the average of 30 sample variances, and the
average of 30 sample standard deviations in the designated cells K2, K3, and K4
respectively.
f. Compare your results of part (e) above with those obtained for the population in part
(a). Discuss similarities and contrasts in the context of the Central Limit Theorem.
g. Construct a relative frequency histogram for the 30 sample means obtained from part
(e) above. Comment on the shape of the distribution of the sample means.
h. Summarize your findings of this experiment in your Word report.

Format & Guidelines

The report should follow the following format:

(i) Introduction
(ii) Analysis
(iii) Conclusion
And be 800-900 words and be presented in the APA format.

The Excel spreadsheet must be completed as outlined in the assignment above.

Rubric

Category Above Standard Meets Standards Approaching

Below Standards Not Evident
Standards
Thoroughly and Accurately modeled the Satisfactorily modeled Partially modeled the Did not submit or
Excel (or R): concisely modeled the problem in Excel (or R) the problem in Excel (or problem in Excel (or R) incompletely modeled
Problem problem in Excel (or R) for each method R) for each method. for each method, but the problem in Excel (or
Modeling & for each method there are some gaps in R)
Set-up the problem modeling
ALY6010_CO3 and setup

Thoroughly and Thoroughly obtained Satisfactorily obtained Partially obtained Did not submit or did
Excel (or R): efficiently obtained accurate solutions in correct solutions in accurate solutions in not obtain accurate
Problem correct and accurate Excel (or R) by using the Excel (or R) by using the Excel (or R) by using the solutions in Excel (or R)
Solution & solutions in Excel (or R) appropriate analytic appropriate analytic appropriate analytic using the appropriate
Accuracy by using the appropriate tools of the software tools of the software tools of the software analytic tools of the
ALY6010_CO3 analytic tools of the software
software

Thoroughly provided a Thoroughly provided a Satisfactorily provided a Partially provided a Did not submit or did
Word/Report: summary of the problem summary of the problem summary of the problem summary of the problem not provide a summary
Problem descriptions and descriptions and descriptions and descriptions and problem of the problem
Description & introduced the problem problem introduction problem introduction introduction descriptions and
Introduction using rich and significant problem introduction
ALY6010_CO5 ideas

Thoroughly and Accurately described the Satisfactorily described Partially described the Did not submit or did
Word/Report:
accurately described the analytic concepts and the analytic concepts analytic concepts and not provide a summary
Description of
Problem analytic concepts and theories used in and theories used in theories used in of the problem
Analysis theories used in analyzing the problem analyzing the problem analyzing the problem descriptions and
ALY6010_CO5 analyzing the problem problem introduction
 Category Above Standard Meets Standards Approaching
Below Standards Not Evident
Standards
Thoroughly described Thoroughly described Satisfactorily described Partially described the Did not submit or did
the conclusions and the conclusions and the conclusions and conclusions and results not describe the
Word/Report:
results obtained in the results obtained in the results obtained in the obtained in the project conclusions and results
Description of
Conclusions project using a high level project project obtained in the project
ALY6010_CO5 of critical thinking and
reasoning

Completely free of There are no noticeable There are very few There are more than five Did not submit; or there
errors in grammar, errors in grammar, errors in grammar, errors in grammar, are many errors in
spelling, and spelling, and spelling, and spelling, and grammar, spelling, and
Word/Report:
punctuation; and punctuation; and punctuation; and punctuation; or the punctuation; or the
Writing
Mechanics, completely correct usage completely correct usage completely correct usage usage of title page, usage of title page,
Title Page, & of title page, citations, of title page, citations, of title page, citations, citations, and references citations, and references
References and references. The and references. The and references. The are incomplete; or the are totally incomplete;
report contains a report contains a report contains a report contains less than or the report contains
minimum of 1000 words minimum of 1000 words minimum of 1000 words 1000 words very few words