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Introduction to CF

What Is Corporate Finance?


Financial Management Decisions
Capital Budgeting
Capital Structure
Working Capital Management
The Goal of Financial Management
Possible Goals
The Goal of Financial Management
A More General Goal

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The Agency Problem and Control of the
Corporation
Agency Relationships
Management Goals
Do Managers Act in the Stockholders’ Interests?
Managerial Compensation
Control of the Firm
Stakeholders

Financial Markets and the Corporation


Primary versus Secondary Markets
Primary Markets
Secondary Markets
Dealer versus Auction Markets
Trading in Corporate Securities

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS,
TAXES, AND CASH FLOW

 The Balance Sheet


 ASSETS: THE LEFT SIDE

 LIABILITIES AND OWNERS’ EQUITY: THE RIGHT SIDE

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NET WORKING CAPITAL (THE
BALANCE SHEET)

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LIQUIDITY (THE BALANCE SHEET)

 Advantage of Liquidity

 Forgone Potential profit

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DEBT VERSUS EQUITY (THE BALANCE
SHEET)

 Shareholders’ equity = Assets – Liabilities

 Financial Leverage

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MARKET VALUE VERSUS BOOK VALUE
(THE BALANCE SHEET)

 Book Value
 Historical Cost
 Historical cost of current assets
 Historical cost of fixed assets
 Market Value
 Users of Balance Sheet
 Managers
 Investors (current and potential shareholders and
creditors)
 Supplier

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The Income Statement
 Income Statement Equation
 Revenues - Expenses = Income

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Calculating EPS and DPS

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GAAP AND THE INCOME STATEMENT

 Realization Principle

 Matching Principle

 Noncash Items

 Time and Cost


 Short run and long run
 Fixed and variable costs

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Cash Flow
 Cash flow from assets = Cash flow to creditors
+ Cash flow to stockholders
 CASH FLOW FROM ASSETS
 Operating cash flow

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Cash Flow
 Capital Spending

 Change in Net Working Capital

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Cash Flow From Assets

 A Note about “Free” Cash Flow

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CASH FLOW TO CREDITORS AND
STOCKHOLDERS

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Chapter No. 3
WORKING WITH FINANCIAL
STATEMENTS
 Cash Flow and Financial Statements : A Closer
Look

 SOURCES AND USES OF CASH

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Sources and Uses of Cash (Balance
Sheet)

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Sources and Uses of Cash (Income
Statement)

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THE STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS

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Standardized Financial Statements
 COMMON-SIZE STATEMENTS

 Common-Size Balance Sheets

 Common-Size Income Statements

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Common-Size Balance Sheets

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Common-Size Income Statements

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 COMMON–BASE YEAR FINANCIAL
STATEMENTS: TREND ANALYSIS

 COMBINED COMMON-SIZE AND BASE YEAR


ANALYSIS

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Example of Standardized Balance
Sheet

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Ratio Analysis
 Financial ratios are traditionally grouped into the
following categories:

 Short-term solvency, or liquidity, ratios.


 Long-term solvency, or financial leverage, ratios.
 Asset management, or turnover, ratios.
 Profitability ratios.
 Market value ratios.

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SHORT-TERM SOLVENCY, OR LIQUIDITY,
MEASURES

Other Liquidity Ratios

Strikes for example

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LONG-TERM SOLVENCY MEASURES:

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ASSET MANAGEMENT, OR TURNOVER,
MEASURES

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PROFITABILITY MEASURES

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MARKET VALUE MEASURES
`

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The Du Pont Identity

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The Du Pont Identity

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Using Financial Statement Information
 WHY EVALUATE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS?
 Internal Uses
 External Uses
 CHOOSING A BENCHMARK
 Time Trend Analysis
 Peer Group Analysis

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PROBLEMS WITH FINANCIAL
STATEMENT ANALYSIS
 There is no underlying theory to help us identify
which quantities to look at and to guide us in
establishing benchmarks
 Many firms are conglomerates
 Major competitors and natural peer group
members in an industry may be scattered
around the globe
 Different firms end their fiscal years at different
times

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INTRODUCTION TO VALUATION:
THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY
 Future Value and compounding
 INVESTING FOR A SINGLE PERIOD
 INVESTING FOR MORE THAN ONE PERIOD
 Compounding
 Simple interest
 Compound interest

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Simple vs compound interest

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Discounted Cash Flow
 Future and Present Values of Multiple Cash
Flows

 FUTURE VALUE WITH MULTIPLE CASH FLOWS

 Suppose you deposit $100 today in an account


paying 8 percent. In one year, you will deposit
another $100. How much will you have in two
years?

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PRESENT VALUE WITH MULTIPLE CASH FLOWS

Suppose you need $1,000 in one year and $2,000 more in two years. If you can
earn 9 percent on your money, how much do you have to put up today to exactly
cover these amounts in the future?
You are offered an investment that will pay you $200 in one year, $400 the next year,
$600 the next year, and $800 at the end of the fourth year. You can earn 12 percent
on very similar investments. What is the most you should pay for this one?
You are offered an investment that will make three $5,000 payments. The first
payment will occur four years from today. The second will occur in five years,
and the third will follow in six years. If you can earn 11 percent, what is the most
this investment is worth today? What
is the future value of the cash flows?

PRESENT VALUE FOR ANNUITY CASH FLOWS


Suppose you wish to start up a new business that specializes in the latest of health food
trends, frozen yak milk. To produce and market your product, the Yakkee Doodle Dandy,
you need to borrow $100,000. Because it strikes you as unlikely that this particular fad
will be long-lived, you propose to pay off the loan quickly by making five equal annual
payments. If the interest rate is 18 percent, what will the payment be?

Data
PV of Annuity = $100,000
R = 18%
C = ???

Solution

Annuity present value $100,000 = C x [(1- Present value interest factor)/r]


100,000 = C X {[1- (11.185)]/.18}
100,000 = C X [(1 - .4371)/.18]
100,000 = C X 3.1272
C = $100,000/3.1272 = $31,978
Finding the Rate The last question we might want to ask concerns the interest
rate implicit in an annuity. For example, an insurance company offers to pay you
$1,000 per year for 10 years if you will pay $6,710 up front. What rate is implicit
in this 10-year annuity?
FUTURE VALUE FOR ANNUITIES
suppose you plan to contribute $2,000 every year to a retirement account paying 8
percent. If you retire in 30 years, how much will you have?

A NOTE ABOUT ANNUITIES DUE

PERPETUITIES

PV for a perpetuity = C/r

Example: An investment offers a perpetual cash flow of $500 every year. The return
you require on such an investment is 8 percent. What is the value of this investment?
Suppose the Fellini Co. wants to sell preferred stock at $100 per share. A similar
issue of preferred stock already outstanding has a price of $40 per share and
offers a dividend of $1 every quarter. What dividend will Fellini have to offer if the
preferred stock is going to sell?

GROWING ANNUITIES AND PERPETUITIES

Suppose, for example, that we are looking at a lottery payout over a 20-year
period. The first payment, made one year from now, will be $200,000. Every year
thereafter, the payment will grow by 5 percent What’s the present value if the
appropriate discount rate is 11 percent?
Comparing Rates:
The Effect of Compounding

EFFECTIVE ANNUAL RATES AND COMPOUNDING

Stated or quoted interest rate: expressed in term of interest payment made each
period
Effective Annual Rate (EAR): interest rate expressed as if it were compounded once
per year
suppose you’ve shopped around and come up with the following three rates:
Bank A: 15 percent compounded daily
Bank B: 15.5 percent compounded quarterly
Bank C: 16 percent compounded annually

Which of these is the best if you are thinking of opening a savings account? Which
of these is best if they represent loan rates?
A bank is offering 12 percent compounded quarterly. If you put $100 in an
account, how much will you have at the end of one year? What’s the EAR? How
much will you have at the end of two years?

As a lender, you know you want to actually earn 18 percent on a particular loan.
You want to quote a rate that features monthly compounding. What rate do you
quote?

Depending on the issuer, a typical credit card agreement quotes an interest rate
of 18 percent APR. Monthly payments are required. What is the actual interest
rate you pay on such a credit card?

For example, AmeriCash Advance allows you to write a check for $125 dated 15
days in the future, for which they give you $100 today. So what are the APR and
EAR of this arrangement? First, we need to find the interest rate, which we can
find by the FV equation as follows:
Loan Types and Loan Amortization

1. Pure Discount loan


2. Interest only loan
3. Amortized loan

For example, suppose a business takes out a $5,000, five-year loan at 9 percent. The
loan agreement calls for the borrower to pay the interest on the loan balance each
year and to reduce the loan balance each year by $1,000. Because the loan amount
declines by $1,000 each year, it is fully paid in five years.
Interest Rates and Bond Valuation
BOND FEATURES AND PRICES
Coupon
Face value
Coupon rate
Maturity

BOND VALUES AND YIELDS


Yield to maturity (YTM)

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INTEREST RATE RISK

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More about Bond Features
1. Debt is not an ownership interest in the fi rm. Creditors
generally do not have voting power.

2. The corporation’s payment of interest on debt is


considered a cost of doing business and is fully tax
deductible. Dividends paid to stockholders are not tax
deductible.

3. Unpaid debt is a liability of the firm. If it is not paid, the


creditors can legally claim the assets of the fi rm. This
action can result in liquidation or reorganization, two of
the possible consequences of bankruptcy. Thus, one of the
costs of issuing debt is the possibility of financial failure.
This possibility does not arise when equity is issued.

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IS IT DEBT OR EQUITY?
LONG-TERM DEBT: THE BASICS
Long term and short term bonds
Notes, debentures, or bonds
Public issue or privately placed

THE INDENTURE
1. The basic terms of the bonds.
2. The total amount of bonds issued.
3. A description of property used as security.
4. The repayment arrangements.
5. The call provisions.
6. Details of the protective covenants.

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Terms of Bond
Registered form
Bearer form
Security
Secured debt
Collateral
Mortgage securities
Mortgage turst indenture or trust deed
Unsecured debt
Debenture
Note
Senority
Senior
Junior or subordinated debenture
Repayment
Sinking funds

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Call Provision
Call premium
Deferred call provision
Call protected bonds
Protective covenant
Negative protective covenant (thou shalt not)
1. The firm must limit the amount of dividends it pays according to
some formula.
2. The firm cannot pledge any assets to other lenders.
3. The firm cannot merge with another firm.
4. The firm cannot sell or lease any major assets without approval
by the lender.
5. The firm cannot issue additional long-term debt.
Positive protective covenant (Thou Shalt)
1. The company must maintain its working capital at or above
some specified minimum level.
2. The company must periodically furnish audited financial
statements to the lender.
3. The firm must maintain any collateral or security in good
condition.
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Bond Ratings

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Some Different Types of Bonds
GOVERNMENT BONDS
FLOATING-RATE BONDS
OTHER TYPES OF BONDS
Put bonds
Income bonds
Convertable bonds
Bond Markets
Over the counter market
Transparency of bond market
Bond price reporting (Transaction report and compliance Engine)
Bid price
Asked price
Bid-ask spread

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Inflation and Interest Rates
REAL VERSUS NOMINAL RATES
THE FISHER EFFECT

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Determinants of Bond Yields
THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES
Inflation premium: The portion of a nominal interest rate
that represents compensation for expected future
inflation.
Interest rate risk premium: The compensation investors demand
for bearing interest rate risk.

default risk premium: The portion of a nominal interest rate or bond


yield that represents compensation for the possibility of default.

taxability premium: The portion of a nominal interest rate or bond


yield that represents compensation for unfavorable tax status.

liquidity premium: The portion of a nominal interest rate or bond yield that
represents compensation for lack of liquidity.

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14. Using Treasury Quotes Locate the Treasury bond in Figure 7.4 maturing
in November 2024. Is this a premium or a discount bond? What is its
current yield? What is its yield to maturity? What is the bid–ask spread?

15. Bond Price Movements Bond X is a premium bond making annual


payments. The bond pays a 9 percent coupon, has a YTM of 7 percent, and
has 13 years to maturity. Bond Y is a discount bond making annual
payments. This bond pays a 7 percent coupon, has a YTM of 9 percent, and
also has 13 years to maturity. If interest
rates remain unchanged, what do you expect the price of these bonds to be
one year from now? In three years? In eight years? In 12 years? In 13 years?
What’s going on here? Illustrate your answers by graphing bond prices
versus time to maturity.

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18. Bond Yields Caribbean Reef Software has 8.4 percent coupon bonds on the
market with nine years to maturity. The bonds make semiannual payments and
currently sell for 95.5 percent of par. What is the current yield on the bonds? The
YTM? The effective annual yield?

19. Bond Yields Giles Co. wants to issue new 20-year bonds for some much-
needed expansion projects. The company currently has 7 percent coupon bonds
on the market that sell for $1,062, make semiannual payments, and mature in 20
years. What coupon rate should the company set on its new bonds if it wants
them to sell at par?

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22. Finding the Bond Maturity Jude Corp. has 9 percent coupon bonds making
annual payments with a YTM of 6.3 percent. The current yield on these bonds is
7.1 percent. How many years do these bonds have left until they mature?

25. Interest on Zeroes Snowflake Corporation needs to raise funds to finance a


plant expansion, and it has decided to issue 25-year zero coupon bonds to raise
the money. The required return on the bonds will be 8 percent.
a. What will these bonds sell for at issuance?
b. Using the IRS amortization rule, what interest deduction can Snowfl ake
Corporation take on these bonds in the fi rst year? In the last year?
c. Repeat part (b) using the straight-line method for the interest deduction.
d. Based on your answers in (b) and (c), which interest deduction method would
Snowfl ake Corporation prefer? Why?

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29. Components of Bond Returns Bond P is a premium bond with a 9 percent
coupon. Bond D is a 5 percent coupon bond currently selling at a discount. Both
bonds make annual payments, have a YTM of 7 percent, and have fi ve years to
maturity. What is the current yield for bond P? For bond D? If interest rates
remain unchanged, what is the expected capital gains yield over the next year
for bond P? For bond D? Explain
your answers and the interrelationships among the various types of yields.

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26. Zero Coupon Bonds Suppose your company needs to raise $20 million
and you want to issue 30-year bonds for this purpose. Assume the required
return on your bond issue will be 7 percent, and you’re evaluating two issue
alternatives: a 7 percent annual coupon bond and a zero coupon bond. Your
company’s tax rate is 35 percent.
a. How many of the coupon bonds would you need to issue to raise the $20
million? How many of the zeroes would you need to issue?
b. In 30 years, what will your company’s repayment be if you issue the coupon
bonds? What if you issue the zeroes?
c. Based on your answers in (a) and (b), why would you ever want to issue the
zeroes? To answer, calculate the firm’s after tax cash outflows for the first
year under the two different scenarios. Assume the IRS amortization rules
apply for the zero coupon bonds.

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STOCK VALUATION
• COMMONS STOCK VALUATION
• NO PROMISED CASH FLOW
• NO MATURITY
• NO WAY TO EASILY OBSERVE RATE OF
RETURN REQUIRED IN THE MARKET

• CASH FLOW

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SOME SPECIAL CASES
•ZERO GROWTH
•CONSTANT GROWTH
•NON-CONSTANT GROWTH

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ZERO GROWTH

suppose the Paradise Prototyping Company has a policy of paying


a $10 per share dividend every year. If this policy is to be continued
indefinitely, what is the value of a share of stock if the required
return is 20 percent?

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CONSTANT GROWTH

The Hedless Corporation has just paid a dividend of


$3 per share. The dividend of this company grows
at a steady rate of 8 percent per year. Based on this
information, what will the dividend be in five years?

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DIVIDEND GROWTH MODEL

The next dividend for the Gordon Growth Company will be


$4 per share. Investors require a 16 percent return on
companies such as Gordon. Gordon’s dividend increases
by 6 percent every year. Based on the dividend growth
model, what is the value of Gordon’s stock today? What is
the value in four years?

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NONCONSTANT GROWTH

For a simple example of non-constant growth,


consider the case of a company that is currently not
paying dividends. You predict that, in five years, the
company will pay a dividend for the first time. The
dividend will be $.50 per share. You expect that this
dividend will then grow at a rate of 10 percent per
year indefinitely. The required return on companies
such as this one is 20 percent. What is the price of
the stock today?

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COMPONENTS OF THE REQUIRED
RETURN

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Chapter 09
Capital Budgeting
Techniques

13-87
Capital Budgeting
Techniques

u Project Evaluation and Selection


u Potential Difficulties
u Capital Rationing
u Project Monitoring
u Post-Completion Audit

13-88
Project Evaluation:
Alternative Methods

u Payback Period (PBP)


u Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
u Net Present Value (NPV)
u Profitability Index (PI)

13-89
Proposed Project Data

Julie Miller is evaluating a new project


for her firm, Basket Wonders (BW). She
has determined that the after-tax cash
flows for the project will be $10,000;
$12,000; $15,000; $10,000; and $7,000,
respectively, for each of the Years 1
through 5. The initial cash outlay will
be $40,000.
13-90
Independent Project
u For this project, assume that it is
independent of any other potential
projects that Basket Wonders may
undertake.
u Independent -- A project whose
acceptance (or rejection) does not
prevent the acceptance of other
projects under consideration.
13-91
Payback Period (PBP)

0 1 2 3 4 5

-40 K 10 K 12 K 15 K 10 K 7K

PBP is the period of time


required for the cumulative
expected cash flows from an
investment project to equal the
initial cash outflow.
13-92
Payback Solution (#1)

0 1 2 3 (a) 4 5

-40 K (-b) 10 K 12 K 15 K 10 K (d)


7K
10 K 22 K 37 K (c) 47 K 54 K

Cumulative
Inflows PBP = a + ( b - c ) / d = 3 +
(40 - 37) / 10 = 3 + (3) / 10
= 3.3 Years

13-93
Payback Solution (#2)

0 1 2 3 4 5

-40 K 10 K 12 K 15 K 10 K 7K
-40 K -30 K -18 K -3 K 7K 14 K

PBP = 3 + ( 3K ) / 10K = 3.3


Cumulative Years
Cash Flows
Note: Take absolute value of last
negative cumulative cash flow value.
13-94
PBP Acceptance Criterion
The management of Basket Wonders
has set a maximum PBP of 3.5 years
for projects of this type.
Should this project be accepted?

Yes! The firm will receive back the initial


cash outlay in less than 3.5 years. [3.3
Years < 3.5 Year Max.]

13-95
PBP Strengths
and Weaknesses
Strengths: Weaknesses:
u Easy to use and u Does not account
understand for TVM
u Can be used as a u Does not consider
measure of liquidity cash flows beyond the
u Easier to forecast
PBP
ST than LT flows u Cutoff period is
subjective
13-96
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

IRR is the discount rate that equates the


present value of the future net cash flows
from an investment project with the
project’s initial cash outflow.

CF1 CF2 CFn


ICO = + +...+
(1+IRR) (1+IRR)2
1 (1+IRR)n

13-97
IRR Solution

$40,000 = $10,000 $12,000


1
+ 2
+
(1+IRR) (1+IRR)
$15,000 $10,000 $7,000
+ +
(1+IRR)3 (1+IRR)4 (1+IRR)5

Find the interest rate (IRR) that causes the


discounted cash flows to equal $40,000.
13-98
IRR Solution (Try 10%)
$40,000 = $10,000(PVIF10%,1) + $12,000(PVIF10%,2) +
$15,000(PVIF10%,3) + $10,000(PVIF10%,4) + $ 7,
000(PVIF10%,5)
$40,000 = $10,000(.909) + $12,000(.826) + $15,
000(.751) + $10,000(.683) + $ 7,000(.621)
$40,000 = $9,090 + $9,912 + $11,265 + $6,830
+ $4,347 = $41,444 [Rate is too low!!]

13-99
IRR Solution (Try 15%)
$40,000 = $10,000(PVIF15%,1) + $12,000(PVIF15%,2) +
$15,000(PVIF15%,3) + $10,000(PVIF15%,4) + $ 7,
000(PVIF15%,5)
$40,000 = $10,000(.870) + $12,000(.756) + $15,
000(.658) + $10,000(.572) + $ 7,000(.497)
$40,000 = $8,700 + $9,072 + $9,870 + $5,720
+ $3,479 = $36,841 [Rate is too high!!]

13-100
IRR Solution (Interpolate)
.10$41,444
X $1,444
.05 IRR $40,000 $4,603
.15$36,841

X $1,444 .05 $4,603


=

13-101
IRR Solution (Interpolate)
.10$41,444
X $1,444
.05 IRR $40,000 $4,603
.15$36,841

X $1,444 .05 $4,603


=

13-102
IRR Solution (Interpolate)
.10$41,444
X $1,444
.05 IRR $40,000 $4,603
.15$36,841

($1,444)(0.05)
X= X$4,603
= .0157

IRR = .10 + .0157 = .1157 or 11.57%


13-103
IRR Acceptance Criterion
The management of Basket Wonders
has determined that the hurdle rate is
13% for projects of this type.
Should this project be accepted?

No! The firm will receive 11.57% for


each dollar invested in this project at a
cost of 13%. [ IRR < Hurdle Rate ]

13-104
IRRs on the Calculator

We will use the cash


flow registry to
solve the IRR for
this problem
quickly and
accurately!

13-105
Actual IRR Solution Using
Your Financial Calculator

Steps in the Process


Step 1: Press CF key
Step 2: Press 2nd CLR Work keys
Step 3: For CF0 Press -40000 Enter  keys
Step 4: For C01 Press 10000 Enter  keys
Step 5: For F01 Press 1 Enter  keys
Step 6: For C02 Press 12000 Enter  keys
Step 7: For F02 Press 1 Enter  keys
Step 8: For C03 Press 15000 Enter  keys
13-106Step 9: For F03 Press 1 Enter  keys
Actual IRR Solution Using
Your Financial Calculator
Steps in the Process (Part II)
Step 10:For C04 Press 10000 Enter  keys
Step 11:For F04 Press 1 Enter  keys
Step 12:For C05 Press 7000 Enter  keys
Step 13:For F05 Press 1 Enter  keys
Step 14: Press   keys
Step 15: Press IRR key
Step 16: Press CPT key

Result: Internal Rate of Return = 11.47%


13-107
IRR Strengths
and Weaknesses
Strengths: Weaknesses:
u Accounts for u Assumes all cash
TVM flows reinvested at the
u Considers all IRR
cash flows u Difficulties with
u Less project rankings and
subjectivity Multiple IRRs

13-108
Multiple IRR Problem*
Let us assume the following cash flow
pattern for a project for Years 0 to 4:
-$100 +$100 +$900 -$1,000
How many potential IRRs could this project
have?
Two!! There are as many potential IRRs
as there are sign changes.
* Refer to Appendix A
13-109
NPV Profile -- Multiple IRRs

75 Multiple IRRs at
k = 12.95% and 191.15%
Net Present Value

50
($000s)

25

-100
0 40 80 120 160 200
Discount Rate (%)
13-110
NPV Profile -- Multiple IRRs

Hint: Your calculator


will only find ONE IRR
– even if there are
multiple IRRs. It will
give you the lowest
IRR. In this case,
12.95%.

13-111
13-112
13-113
13-114
Modified IRR
u The Discounting Approach

u The Reinvestment Approach

u The combination Approach

13-115
Net Present Value (NPV)

NPV is the present value of an


investment project’s net cash flows
minus the project’s initial cash
outflow.

CF1 CF2 CFn


NPV = + +...+ - ICO
(1+k) (1+k)2
1 (1+k)n

13-116
NPV Solution
Basket Wonders has determined that the
appropriate discount rate (k) for this
project is 13%.
NPV = $10,000 $12,000 $15,000
+ + +
(1.13)1 (1.13)2 (1.13)3
$10,000 $7,000
4 + 5 - $40,000
(1.13) (1.13)

13-117
NPV Solution
NPV = $10,000(PVIF13%,1) + $12,000(PVIF13%,2) +
$15,000(PVIF13%,3) + $10,000(PVIF13%,4) + $ 7,
000(PVIF13%,5) - $40,000
NPV = $10,000(.885) + $12,000(.783) + $15,
000(.693) + $10,000(.613) + $ 7,000(.543) -
$40,000
NPV = $8,850 + $9,396 + $10,395 + $6,130 +
$3,801 - $40,000
=- $1,428
13-118
NPV Acceptance Criterion
The management of Basket Wonders
has determined that the required rate
is 13% for projects of this type.
Should this project be accepted?

No! The NPV is negative. This means that


the project is reducing shareholder wealth.
[Reject as NPV < 0 ]

13-119
NPV on the Calculator

We will use the cash


flow registry to solve
the NPV for this
problem quickly and
accurately!

Hint: If you have not cleared


the cash flows from your
calculator, then you may
skip to Step 15.
13-120
Actual NPV Solution Using
Your Financial Calculator

Steps in the Process


Step 1: Press CF key
Step 2: Press 2nd CLR Work keys
Step 3: For CF0 Press -40000 Enter  keys
Step 4: For C01 Press 10000 Enter  keys
Step 5: For F01 Press 1 Enter  keys
Step 6: For C02 Press 12000 Enter  keys
Step 7: For F02 Press 1 Enter  keys
Step 8: For C03 Press 15000 Enter  keys
13-121Step 9: For F03 Press 1 Enter  keys
Actual NPV Solution Using
Your Financial Calculator
Steps in the Process (Part II)
Step 10:For C04 Press 10000 Enter  keys
Step 11:For F04 Press 1 Enter  keys
Step 12:For C05 Press 7000 Enter  keys
Step 13:For F05 Press 1 Enter  keys
Step 14: Press   keys
Step 15: Press NPV key
Step 16: For I=, Enter 13 Enter  keys
Step 17: Press CPT key
Result: Net Present Value = -$1,424.42
13-122
NPV Strengths
and Weaknesses
Strengths: Weaknesses:
u Cash flows u May not include
assumed to be managerial options
reinvested at the embedded in the
hurdle rate. project.
u Accounts for TVM.
u Considers all cash
flows.
13-123
Net Present Value Profile
$000s
Sum of CF’s Plot NPV for each
15 discount rate.
Thre
Net Present Value

eo f the
10 se p
o ints
are
easy
no w!
5 IRR
NPV@13%
0
-4
0 3 6 9 12 15
Discount Rate (%)
13-124
Creating NPV Profiles
Using the Calculator

Hint: As long as you do


not “clear” the cash
flows from the registry,
simply start at Step 15
and enter a different
discount rate. Each
resulting NPV will
provide a “point” for
your NPV Profile!

13-125
Profitability Index (PI)

PI is the ratio of the present value of a


project’s future net cash flows to the
project’s initial cash outflow.
Method #1:
CF1 CF2 CFn
PI = + +...+ ICO
(1+k)1 (1+k)2 (1+k)n
<< OR >>
Method #2:
PI = 1 + [ NPV / ICO ]
13-126
PI Acceptance Criterion
PI = $38,572 / $40,000
= .9643 (Method #1, 13-34)

Should this project be accepted?

No! The PI is less than 1.00. This means


that the project is not profitable. [Reject as
PI < 1.00 ]
13-127
PI Strengths
and Weaknesses

Strengths: Weaknesses:
u Same as NPV u Same as NPV
u Allows u Provides only
comparison of relative profitability
different scale u Potential Ranking
projects Problems

13-128
Evaluation Summary
Basket Wonders Independent Project
M e th o d P r o je c t C o m p a r is o n D e c is io n

PBP 3 .3 3 .5 A ccept

IR R 1 1 .4 7 % 13% R e je c t

NPV -$1,424 $0 R e je c t

PI .9 6 1 .0 0 R e je c t

13-129
Other Project
Relationships
u Dependent -- A project whose
acceptance depends on the
acceptance of one or more other
projects.
u Mutually Exclusive -- A project
whose acceptance precludes the
acceptance of one or more
alternative projects.
13-130
Potential Problems
Under Mutual Exclusivity
Ranking of project proposals may
create contradictory results.

A. Scale of Investment
B. Cash-flow Pattern
C. Project Life

13-131
A. Scale Differences
Compare a small (S) and a large
(L) project.

NET CASH FLOWS


END OF YEAR Project S Project L
0 -$100 -$100,000
1 0 0
2 $400 $156,250
13-132
Scale Differences
Calculate the PBP, IRR, NPV@10%, and
PI@10%.
Which project is preferred? Why?
Project IRR NPV PI

S 100% $ 231 3.31


L 25% $29,132 1.29
13-133
B. Cash Flow Pattern
Let us compare a decreasing cash-flow (D) project
and an increasing cash-flow (I) project.

NET CASH FLOWS


END OF YEAR Project D Project I
0 -$1,200 -$1,200
1 1,000 100
2 500 600
3 100 1,080
13-134
Cash Flow Pattern
Calculate the IRR, NPV@10%, and
PI@10%.
Which project is preferred?

Project IRR NPV PI

?
D 23% $198 1.17
I 17% $198 1.17
13-135
Examine NPV Profiles
Plot NPV for each
600

project at various
Net Present Value ($)

Project I discount rates.


400

NPV@10%
IRR
200

Project D
-200 0

0 5 10 15 20 25
Discount Rate (%)
13-136
-200 0 200 400 600
Net Present Value ($)
Fisher’s Rate of Intersection

At k<10%, I is best! Fisher’s Rate of


Intersection

At k>10%, D is best!

0 5 10 15 20 25
Discount Rate ($)
13-137
C. Project Life Differences
Let us compare a long life (X) project and a
short life (Y) project.

NET CASH FLOWS


END OF YEAR Project X Project Y
0 -$1,000 -$1,000
1 0 2,000
2 0 0
3 3,375 0
13-138
Project Life Differences

Calculate the PBP, IRR, NPV@10%, and


PI@10%.
Which project is preferred? Why?
Project IRR NPV PI

?
X 50% $1,536 2.54
Y 100% $ 818 1.82

13-139
Another Way to Look
at Things
1. Adjust cash flows to a common terminal
year if project “Y” will NOT be replaced.
Compound Project Y, Year 1 @10% for 2 years.

Year 0 1 2 3
CF -$1,000 $0 $0 $2,420

Results:IRR* = 34.26% NPV = $818


*Lower IRR from adjusted cash-flow stream. X is still Best.
13-140
Capital Rationing
Capital Rationing occurs when a
constraint (or budget ceiling) is placed on
the total size of capital expenditures
during a particular period.
Example: Julie Miller must determine what
investment opportunities to undertake for
Basket Wonders (BW). She is limited to a
maximum expenditure of $32,500 only for this
capital budgeting period.
13-141
Available Projects for BW
Project ICO IRR NPV PI
A $ 500 18% $ 50 1.10 B 5,
000 25 6,500 2.30 C 5,000 37 5,
500 2.10 D 7,500 20 5,000 1.67 E 12,
500 26 500 1.04 F 15,000 28 21,
000 2.40 G17,500 19 7,500 1.43 H 25,
000 15 6,000 1.24

13-142
Choosing by IRRs for BW
Project ICO IRR NPV PI
C $ 5,000 37% $ 5,500 2.10 F 15,000
28 21,000 2.40 E 12,500 26 500
1.04 B 5,000 25 6,500 2.30
Projects C, F, and E have the three
largest IRRs.
The resulting increase in shareholder wealth is
$27,000 with a $32,500 outlay.

13-143
Choosing by NPVs for BW
Project ICO IRR NPV PI
F $15,000 28% $21,000 2.40 G17,500
19 7,500 1.43 B 5,000 25 6,500
2.30
Projects F and G have the two largest
NPVs.
The resulting increase in shareholder wealth is
$28,500 with a $32,500 outlay.
13-144
Choosing by PIs for BW
Project ICO IRR NPV PI
F $15,000 28% $21,000 2.40 B 5,000
25 6,500 2.30 C 5,000 37 5,
500 2.10 D 7,500 20 5,000 1.67 G
17,500 19 7,500 1.43
Projects F, B, C, and D have the four largest PIs.
The resulting increase in shareholder wealth is $38,
000 with a $32,500 outlay.

13-145
Summary of Comparison
Method Projects Accepted Value Added
PI F, B, C, and D $38,000
NPV F and G $28,500
IRR C, F, and E $27,000

PI generates the greatest increase in


shareholder wealth when a limited capital
budget exists for a single period.
13-146
Single-Point Estimate and
Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis: A type of “what-if” uncertainty
analysis in which variables or assumptions are
changed from a base case in order to determine
their impact on a project’s measured results (such
as NPV or IRR).
u Allows us to change from “single-point” (i.e., revenue,
installation cost, salvage, etc.) estimates to a “what if”
analysis
u Utilize a “base-case” to compare the impact of
individual variable changes
u E.g., Change forecasted sales units to see impact
on the project’s NPV

13-147
Post-Completion Audit
Post-completion Audit
A formal comparison of the actual costs and
benefits of a project with original estimates.

u Identify any project weaknesses


u Develop a possible set of corrective actions
u Provide appropriate feedback
Result: Making better future decisions!
13-148
CHAPTER 11
PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION

Copyright © 2016 by McGraw-Hill Global Education LLC. All rights reserved.


KEY CONCEPTS AND SKILLS
• Understand forecasting risk and
sources of value
• Understand and be able to conduct
scenario and sensitivity analysis
• Understand the various forms of break-
even analysis
• Understand operating leverage
• Understand capital rationing and its
effects
11-150
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CHAPTER OUTLINE

• Evaluating NPV Estimates


• Scenario and Other What-If Analyses
• Break-Even Analysis
• Operating Cash Flow, Sales Volume, and Break-Even
• Operating Leverage
• Capital Rationing

11-151
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EVALUATING NPV ESTIMATES

• NPV estimates are just that – estimates

• A positive NPV is a good start – now we need to


take a closer look
 Forecasting risk – how sensitive is our NPV to
changes in the cash flow estimates; the more
sensitive, the greater the forecasting risk

 Sources of value – why does this project create value?

11-152
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SCENARIO ANALYSIS

• What happens to the NPV under different cash


flow scenarios?
• At the very least, look at:
 Best case – high revenues, low costs
 Worst case – low revenues, high costs
 Measure of the range of possible outcomes

• Best case and worst case are not necessarily


probable, but they can still be possible

11-153
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NEW PROJECT EXAMPLE

• Consider the project discussed in the text in


section 11.2
• The initial cost is $200,000, and the project has a 5-
year life. There is no salvage.
• Depreciation is straight-line, the required return is 12%,
and the tax rate is 34%.
• The base, lower, and upper values are given for unit
sales, price per unit, variable costs per unit, and fixed
costs.
• Click on the Excel icon to see base case, best case,
and worst case scenarios results.

11-154
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SUMMARY OF SCENARIO
ANALYSIS
Scenario Net Income Cash Flow NPV IRR
Base case 19,800 59,800 15,567 15.1%

Worst Case -15,510 24,490 -111,719 -14.4%

Best Case 59,730 99,730 159,504 40.9%

11-155
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SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
• What happens to NPV when we change one
variable at a time

• This is a subset of scenario analysis where we


are looking at the effect of specific variables on
NPV

• The greater the volatility in NPV in relation to a


specific variable, the larger the forecasting risk
associated with that variable, and the more
attention we want to pay to its estimation

11-156
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SUMMARY OF SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS FOR NEW PROJECT
Scenario Unit Sales Cash Flow NPV IRR

Base case 6,000 59,800 15,567 15.1%

Worst case 5,500 53,200 -8,226 10.3%

Best case 6,500 66,400 39,357 19.7%

11-157
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SIMULATION ANALYSIS
• Simulation is really just an expanded sensitivity
and scenario analysis

• Monte Carlo simulation can estimate thousands


of possible outcomes based on conditional
probability distributions and constraints for each
of the variables

• The output is a probability distribution for NPV


with an estimate of the probability of obtaining a
positive net present value

• The simulation only works as well as the


information that is entered, and very bad
decisions can be made if care is not taken to
analyze the interaction between variables
11-158
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MAKING A DECISION
• Beware “Paralysis of Analysis”
• At some point you have to make a decision
• If the majority of your scenarios have positive
NPVs, then you can feel reasonably comfortable
about accepting the project
• If you have a crucial variable that leads to a
negative NPV with a small change in the estimates,
then you may want to forego the project

11-159
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BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS
• Common tool for analyzing the relationship
between sales volume and profitability

• There are three common break-even measures


 Accounting break-even: sales volume at which NI =
0

 Cash break-even: sales volume at which OCF = 0

 Financial break-even: sales volume at which NPV


=0

11-160
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EXAMPLE: COSTS
• There are two types of costs that are important in
breakeven analysis: variable and fixed
 Total variable costs = quantity * cost per unit
 Fixed costs are constant, regardless of output, over
some time period
 Total costs = fixed + variable = FC + vQ

• Example:
 Your firm pays $3,000 per month in fixed costs. You
also pay $15 per unit to produce your product.
• What is your total cost if you produce 1,000 units?
• What if you produce 5,000 units?

11-161
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AVERAGE VS. MARGINAL COST
• Average Cost
 TC / # of units
 Will decrease as # of units increases

• Marginal Cost
 The cost to produce one more unit
 Same as variable cost per unit

• Example: What is the average cost and marginal cost


under each situation in the previous example?
 Produce 1,000 units: Average = 18,000 / 1000 = $18
 Produce 5,000 units: Average = 78,000 / 5000 = $15.60

11-162
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ACCOUNTING BREAK-EVEN

• The quantity that leads to a zero net income

• NI = (Sales – VC – FC – D)(1 – T) = 0

• QP – vQ – FC – D = 0

• Q(P – v) = FC + D

• Q = (FC + D) / (P – v)

11-163
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USING ACCOUNTING BREAK-EVEN
• Accounting break-even is often used as an early stage
screening number

• If a project cannot break-even on an accounting basis,


then it is not going to be a worthwhile project

• Accounting break-even gives managers an indication of


how a project will impact accounting profit

11-164
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ACCOUNTING BREAK-EVEN AND CASH
FLOW
• We are more interested in cash flow than we are in
accounting numbers

• As long as a firm has non-cash deductions, there


will be a positive cash flow

• If a firm just breaks even on an accounting basis,


cash flow = depreciation

• If a firm just breaks even on an accounting basis,


NPV will generally be < 0

11-165
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EXAMPLE
• Consider the following project:
 A new product requires an initial investment of
$5 million and will be depreciated to an
expected salvage of zero over 5 years
 The price of the new product is expected to be
$25,000, and the variable cost per unit is $15,000
 The fixed cost is $1 million
 What is the accounting break-even point each
year?
• Depreciation = 5,000,000 / 5 = 1,000,000
• Q = (1,000,000 + 1,000,000)/(25,000 – 15,000) = 200 units

11-166
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SALES VOLUME AND OPERATING
CASH FLOW
• What is the operating cash flow at the accounting
break-even point (ignoring taxes)?
 OCF = (S – VC – FC - D) + D
 OCF = (200*25,000 – 200*15,000 – 1,000,000 -1,000,000) +
1,000,000 = 1,000,000

• What is the cash break-even quantity (ignoring


taxes)?
 OCF = [(P-v)Q – FC – D] + D = (P-v)Q – FC
 Q = (OCF + FC) / (P – v)
 Q = (0 + 1,000,000) / (25,000 – 15,000) = 100 units

11-167
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THREE TYPES OF BREAK-EVEN
ANALYSIS
• Accounting Break-even
 Where NI = 0
 Q = (FC + D)/(P – v)

• Cash Break-even
 Where OCF = 0
 Q = (FC + OCF)/(P – v); (ignoring taxes)

• Financial Break-even
 Where NPV = 0

• Cash BE < Accounting BE < Financial BE


11-168
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EXAMPLE: BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS
• Consider the previous example
 Assume a required return of 18%
 Accounting break-even = 200
 Cash break-even = 100 (ignoring taxes)
 What is the financial break-even point (ignoring
taxes)?
• What OCF (or payment) makes NPV = 0?
 N = 5; PV = 5,000,000; I/Y = 18; CPT PMT = 1,
598,889 = OCF
• Q = (1,000,000 + 1,598,889) / (25,000 – 15,000) = 260
units (ignoring taxes)

• The question now becomes: Can we sell at


least 260 units per year?
11-169
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OPERATING LEVERAGE
• Operating leverage is the relationship
between sales and operating cash flow

• Degree of operating leverage measures this


relationship
 The higher the DOL, the greater the variability in
operating cash flow
 The higher the fixed costs, the higher the DOL
 DOL depends on the sales level you are starting
from

• DOL = 1 + (FC / OCF)


11-170
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EXAMPLE: DOL
• Consider the previous example
• Suppose sales are 300 units
 This meets all three break-even measures
 What is the DOL at this sales level?
 OCF = (25,000 – 15,000)*300 – 1,000,000 = 2,000,000
 DOL = 1 + 1,000,000 / 2,000,000 = 1.5

• What will happen to OCF if unit sales increases by


20%?
 Percentage change in OCF = DOL*Percentage change in
Q
 Percentage change in OCF = 1.5(.2) = .3 or 30%
 OCF would increase to 2,000,000(1.3) = 2,600,000

11-171
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CAPITAL RATIONING
• Capital rationing occurs when a firm or division has
limited resources
 Soft rationing – the limited resources are temporary, often
self-imposed
 Hard rationing – capital will never be available for this
project

• The profitability index is a useful tool when a


manager is faced with soft rationing

11-172
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QUICK QUIZ
• What is sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis and
simulation?

• Why are these analyses important, and how should


they be used?

• What are the three types of break-even analysis,


and how should each be used?

• What is the degree of operating leverage?

• What is the difference between hard rationing and


soft rationing?

11-173
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ETHICS ISSUES
• Is it ethical for a medical patient to pay for a
portion of R&D costs (since experimental
procedures are not covered by insurance)
prior to the introduction of the final product?

• Is it proper for physicians to recommend


this procedure when they have a vested
interest in its usage?

11-174
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COMPREHENSIVE PROBLEM

• A project requires an initial investment of $1,000,000 and


is depreciated straight-line to zero salvage over its 10-
year life.

• The project produces items that sell for $1,000 each,


with variable costs of $700 per unit. Fixed costs are $350,
000 per year.

• What is the accounting break-even quantity, operating


cash flow at accounting break-even, and DOL at that
output level?

11-175
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CHAPTER 11
END OF CHAPTER

11-176
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