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  • Randomness and Our Brain - We Are Probability Blind - Taleb - 2004

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    Randomness and our brain_we are probability blind_Taleb_2004

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    Randomness and our brain_we are probability blind_Taleb_2004

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    Randomness and our brain_we are probability blind_Taleb_2004

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF or read online from Scribd
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    11 views11 pages

    Randomness and Our Brain - We Are Probability Blind - Taleb - 2004

    Uploaded by

    wilhelm
    Randomness and our brain_we are probability blind_Taleb_2004

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 11
    “The reader no doubt has played a version of Buridan’s donkey, by “ppg a coin” ro break some ofthe minor stalemates in life where one Je randomness help wit the decision proces. Let Lady Fortuna make the decision and gly submit often ase Burian’s donkey (under its ‘mathematical name] when my computer joes aco a feeve bere 80 iterative (tobe technical, these “randomizations" ae requenty done uring optimization problems, when one needs to perturbate a function) "Note that Bardan's donkey was named after dhe fourtcentvcenary plulosopher Jean Buridan, Buridan had an interesting death (he 3s thrown inthe Seine tied in ag and died drowning) This tale was ‘considered an example of sophistry by his contemporaries who missed the impor: of randomization ~ Buridan was clearly abead of his tne When It Rains, It Pours As 1 am writing these lines, am opening my fund to investors and teploring how to aise money. Cam sddenly ealiaing that the world’s bipolarty is hiving me very hard. Either one succeeds willy, by ateractng all he cash, or fais to draw a single penny. Likewie with books. Fither everyone wants to publish it, or nobody is intrested in returning telephone calls inthe later ase my discipline so delete the ‘name rom my address book. This is making me, with my profound and antiquated Mediterranean sense of mitrion (measire) extremely tncomforable,cren queasy. Too mach success the enemy (eink of the punishment meted out on the rich and famous), 0 much failure s demoralizing, I would ike the option of having nether RANDOMNESS AND OUR BRAIN: WE ARE PROBABILITY BLIND On the dificult of thinking of your vacation a linear combination of Paris and the Bahamas. Nero Tulip may never skin he Alpe again. Some discussion of behavioral discoveries. Some mansfestaions of probity blndnes taken out of @ textbook. A litle more om journalistic polation. Why you may be dead by noe Paris or the Bahamas? ‘ou have two options for your nex brief vacation ia Misch, The first is o fy wo Pais the second isto go to the Caribbean. You ‘xpresed inference beeen the two options your spouse wil tip the

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