January 4, 2021

1
 MOVING AVERAGE:
NEW COVID HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS
160

140

New Daily
120
COVID
100 Admissions

80 107
60

40 7-Day Moving
Average
20

0
95
4/3/2020

5/3/2020

6/3/2020

7/3/2020

8/3/2020

9/3/2020

10/3/2020

11/3/2020

12/3/2020

1/3/2021
• Includes COVID+ Only 2
 MOVING AVERAGE:
TASK FORCE HOSPITALIZATIONS
1000

900

800
Daily Net
700 Hospitalizations

836
600

500

400

300
7-Day Moving
200
Average
100

0
802
4/10/2020

5/10/2020

6/10/2020

7/10/2020

8/10/2020

9/10/2020

10/10/2020

11/10/2020

12/10/2020
• Includes COVID+ Only 3
 ST. LOUIS REGION
CONFIRMED COVID+ ONLY
AS OF January 4, 2021

CURRENTLY DAILY ICU VENTILATORS IN

HOSPITALIZED CENSUS USE FOR COVID
(TASK FORCE HOSPITALS) (TASK FORCE HOSPITALS) (TASK FORCE HOSPITALS)

836 180 109

4
 ST. LOUIS REGION
SUSPECTED COVID+
AS OF January 4, 2021

CURRENTLY DAILY ICU VENTILATORS IN

HOSPITALIZED CENSUS USE FOR COVID
(TASK FORCE HOSPITALS) (TASK FORCE HOSPITALS) (TASK FORCE HOSPITALS)

48 8 3
5
TASK FORCE HOSPITAL DISCHARGES
AS OF January 4, 2021

COVID PATIENTS CUMULATIVE

DISCHARGED COVID PATIENTS
YESTERDAY DISCHARGED
(TASK FORCE HOSPITALS) (TASK FORCE HOSPITALS)

62 14,957
6
 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
10/5/2020

10/15/2020

10/25/2020

11/4/2020

11/14/2020

11/24/2020

12/4/2020

12/14/2020

12/24/2020

1/3/2021
TASK FORCE HOSPITAL COVID DEATHS

17
Deaths

17
Average
New Daily

7-Day Moving

7
 MOVING AVERAGE:
ADMISSIONS, HOSPITALIZATIONS AND DEATHS

New Admissions Hospitalizations Deaths

160 35
900
140 30
750
120
25
100 600
20
80 450
15
60
300
10
40
150 5
20

0 0 0
10/7 11/7 12/7 10/7 11/7 12/7
8
 Comparison of Models from Dec 17 vs Dec 3

9
Source: St. Louis Metropolitan Task Force UPDATED 12/30
 Alternate Models: More Optimistic and Less Optimistic
Scenarios

10
Source: St. Louis Metropolitan Task Force UPDATED 12/30
 PROJECTIONS VS ACTUALS:
Inpatient Census for St. Louis MSA Hospitals

11
Source: St. Louis Metropolitan Task Force
 PROJECTIONS VS ACTUALS:
ICU Census for St. Louis MSA Hospitals

12
Source: St. Louis Metropolitan Task Force
 STL MSA EPIDEMIOLOGY CURVE

13
Source: NY Times UPDATED 12/30/2020
 COVID-19 Cases by County/100K

14
Source: NY Times UPDATED 12/30/2020
 COVID-19 Cases for MO Metro/100K

Source: NY Times UPDATED 12/30/2020 15

 Effective Reproduction Number (Re)

16
SOURCE: Based on 7-day average of new cases from the New York Times using EpiEstim with mean serial interval of 4.7 (SD: 2.9) days | UPDATED: 12/30/20
 CHANGE IN NEW CASES BY COUNTY

UPDATED: 12/30/20 | SOURCE: NY Times (county map) and County Health Departments (zip code map) 17
 CHANGE IN NEW CASES BY ZIP CODE

UPDATED: 12/30/20 | SOURCE: NY Times (county map) and County Health Departments (zip code map) 18
19