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NEILLH B - The Art of Contrary Thinking 1985 PDF
NEILLH B - The Art of Contrary Thinking 1985 PDF
THE A RT OF
Contrary
Thinking
Fifth and Enlarged Edition
By HUMPHREY B. NEILL
• The editor of N eill Let t ers of Contrary Opinion
and author of T he Inside Story of the Stock. Ex change
expla ins his Theory of Contrary Opinion-its de-
velopment and application-in analyzing the trends
that sha pe our fortunes.
$4.95
"When everybody thinlu tJ,ike,
Everyone is likely to be wrong."
HUMPHREY B. NEILL
(The Vermont Ruminator)
It Pays To Be Contrary
IT PAYS TO BE CONTRARY
• Thi! led to the authorship in 19)1 of Tap~ R~atlj"g a"tI M.rktt Tactics
(recently reprinted by Fnaser Publishing Co., Wells, Vt.). which Includes
about IS much discussion of human action al of market action.
THE ART OF CONTRARY THINKING 19
7. Trade on thin margins.
8. Hold to your opinion, right or wrong.
9. Never stay out of the market.
10. Accept small profits and large losses.
II
489
24 THE ART OF CONTRARY THINKING
In other words. only 4.1% of the professional comment and
advice at this major market juncture was correctly bearish which
may be regarded as a normal expectation rather than otherwisc.P
III
IV
v
For a moment we shall drop back three centuries.
In 1634 one of the most extraordinary public manias
in all recorded history took place in Holland. To this
'This writer sent an article to the Fi1ltlncitll WorlJ-it was published
March 25, U142-that was titled "Harvest Time Ahead for Contrary
Thinkers." In this article contrary viewpoints were presented that "those
who have the nerve to 'cross' the gloomy public, pessimistic Wall Street and
bearish forecasters, will have the pleasure to turn profiltlbly pessimistic
...hen present-day bean become optimistic bulls."
32 TIlE ART OF CONTRARY THINKING
VI
VII
VIII
IX
ESSAYS PERTAINING TO
THE THEORY OF CONTRARY OPINION
and
THE ART OF CONTRARY THINKING
HABIT
.. Harper &: Brothers, 194J. See also Nock'. 011' EM"')' The SIAle (19H)
and Lrttr.. f,om Alb,,1 JA)' Noel (1949). The Canon Prierers, ltd.
THE ART OF CONTRARY THINKING 69
THINKING BY ACCIDENT
PROPAGANDA
SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY
ECONOMIC PSYCHOLOGY
LOOKING BACK
TIDAL MOVEMENTS
MUCH TO LEARN
MONEY MINDS
BE A NONCONFORMIST IN YOUR
THINKING
THINKING IN CIRCLES
MOMENTUM
MASS MESMERISM
It may appear an exaggeration to say that such a
condition as mass mesmerism can exist. However,
there have been many times in history when the
"crowd" has indeed seemingly been hypnotized.
THE ART OF CONTRARY THINKING lJ3
If you think of mesmerism or hypnosis as actu-
ally putting people to sleep physically, while their
subconscious minds react to suggestions and com-
mands of the hypnotist, then crowds are, of course,
not mesmerized. However, a crowd hysteria can bet
and has often been, created by the actions and ha-
rangues of a demagogue. The manner in which a
mass of people will respond to such leadership is
certainly similar to actual mesmerism.
Lebon, the long-accepted authority on crowd ac-
tivities, writes that the leader has often started out
as one of the led, explaining that:
He (the leader) has been hypnotized by the idea whose apostle
he has since become. It has taken possession of him to such a
degree that everything outside vanishes, and that every con-
trary opinion appears to him an error or a superstition. An
example in point is Robespierre, hypnotized by the philosophical
ideas of Rousseau, and employing the methods of the Inquisition
to propagate them.
A THINK-IT-OUT-FOR-YOURSELF KIT
EPILOGUE
SLAVES TO "THEY"
by
SAMUEL B. PETTENGILL
September, 1961
About rhe Aurhor:
HUMPHREY B.
NEILL
Meet Am erica's No. I
"con t raria n."
~
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