bp Energy Outlook

2020 edition

This workbook contains chart data presented in the 2020 BP Energy Outlook

The tabs correspond to the chart page numbers

http://www.bp.com/energyoutlook
Three scenarios to explore the energy transition to 2050
CO2 emissions from energy use

Gt of CO2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

History 23735 24045 24576 25795 27104 28199 29075
Rapid
Net Zero
Business-as-usual
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
30106 30408 29775 31109 31992 32264 32775 32784 32773
2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
32894 33225 33820
33820 31473 28471 22375 16571 12369 9346
33820 31169 26186 16737 9655 4960 1444
33820 34121 33845 33543 32559 31600 30488
Average carbon prices in developed and emerging regions

US$ per tonne (real 2018) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2025
Rapid Developed 4 3 5 10 39
Emerging 0 0 0 0 3
Business-as-usual Developed 4 3 5 9 27
Emerging 0 0 0 0 3
2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
100 159 200 238 250
12 38 100 138 175
37 43 50 58 66
8 16 23 31 39
Primary energy consumption by source

2050
EJ 2018 Rapid Net Zero Business-as-usual
Oil 190 89 42 172
Natural gas 138 134 82 187
Coal 158 24 12 123
Nuclear 24 44 57 31
Hydro 38 57 62 51
Renewables 27 277 370 161
Shares of primary energy in Rapid

% 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905

Oil 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Coal 95% 94% 94% 94% 94% 94%
Gas 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Renewables 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other non-fossil fuels 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914
4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7%
94% 94% 93% 93% 93% 92% 92% 92% 91%
1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923
7% 7% 8% 8% 10% 11% 14% 15% 15%
90% 90% 90% 90% 87% 86% 83% 82% 81%
2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1%
1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
15% 16% 16% 17% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21%
81% 80% 79% 78% 77% 76% 75% 73% 71%
3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3%
1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941
22% 21% 22% 21% 23% 23% 23% 22% 22%
71% 71% 70% 71% 69% 68% 68% 69% 70%
5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 5%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950
21% 21% 24% 28% 28% 28% 29% 30% 30%
70% 69% 66% 60% 60% 60% 58% 57% 56%
6% 6% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% 10%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959
31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 35% 36% 35% 35%
54% 52% 51% 50% 49% 49% 48% 48% 47%
10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 12% 12% 13%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968
36% 38% 39% 40% 40% 42% 43% 44% 45%
46% 43% 41% 40% 39% 37% 36% 34% 33%
13% 14% 15% 15% 16% 15% 15% 16% 16%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 49% 48% 48% 48%
31% 30% 29% 28% 27% 27% 27% 27% 26%
17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 18% 18% 18% 18%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 8% 7% 8%
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986
48% 47% 46% 44% 43% 42% 41% 40% 41%
26% 26% 27% 27% 28% 28% 28% 29% 28%
18% 18% 18% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
8% 8% 9% 9% 10% 10% 11% 12% 12%
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
40% 40% 40% 40% 39% 40% 39% 40% 39%
28% 28% 28% 27% 27% 27% 26% 26% 26%
20% 20% 20% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21%
0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
39% 40% 40% 40% 39% 39% 39% 38% 38%
26% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 26% 27% 27%
21% 21% 21% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 12% 12%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
37% 36% 36% 35% 35% 34% 34% 34% 33%
29% 29% 30% 30% 30% 30% 31% 30% 30%
22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 23% 23% 23% 23%
1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3%
12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040
33% 34% 34% 34% 33% 30% 28% 25% 21%
30% 29% 28% 28% 28% 22% 18% 12% 8%
23% 23% 23% 24% 24% 25% 26% 26% 24%
3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 11% 16% 24% 33%
11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 12% 12% 14% 15%
2045 2050
17% 14%
6% 4%
22% 21%
40% 44%
15% 16%
Global GHG emissions

Gt of C02e 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Energy 20.5 20.6 20.6 20.7 20.8
Agriculture 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Industrial processes 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8
Waste 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5
Land-use change and forestry 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
Fugitive emissions 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1

Source: WRI estimates

*Energy Outlook definition which includes CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels. Non-CO2 emissions from energy as defin
 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
21.4 21.8 22.2 22.4 22.5 23.2 23.6 23.9 24.9
5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2
1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2
1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4
4.2 3.7 4.6 4.1 3.7 3.5 4.0 5.0 4.6
2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3

on-CO2 emissions from energy as defined by WRI are allocated to Industrial processes and Fugitive emissions
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
26.1 27.1 27.9 29.0 29.2 28.8 30.5 31.3 31.7
5.3 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.7
2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.2
1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
4.9 4.7 3.9 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.3 3.4 3.5
2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9
2013 2014 2015 2016
32.3 32.3 32.3 32.3
5.6 5.7 5.7 5.8
3.3 3.5 3.5 3.6
1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6
3.4 3.6 3.9 3.2
2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9
Carbon emissions from energy use, 2018

Gt of CO2
Agriculture 0.8
Seasonal space heating and cooling 1.6
Other residential and commercial buildings 7.4
Iron and steel 2.0
Cement 1.4
Other heavy industry 4.4
Light industry 8.2
Aviation 0.9
Marine 0.8
Medium and heavy road 1.5
Other transport 4.8
Global GDP, 2018-2050

Trillion $US (2015) PPP

2018 129
World population 43
GDP per head 126
2050 297
Global GDP growth and regional contributions

% per annum 2018-2050

China 0.8%
India 0.6%
Developed 0.5%
Africa 0.2%
Other Asia 0.4%
Other 0.3%
World 2.6%
Fast urbanizing countries 1.6%
Other 1.0%
Contribution to primary energy demand growth

2050
% per annum 1995 - 2018 Rapid Net Zero Business-as-usual
Primary energy demand 2.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7%
Population 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
Energy intensity -1.6% -2.3% -2.3% -1.9%
GDP per head 2.4% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%
Global primary energy demand

EJ 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

History 342 344 347 349 354 361 372
Rapid
Net Zero
Business-as-usual
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
376 378 385 395 399 407 422 442 457
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
470 485 490 483 506 518 525 535 539
2015 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
543 550 560 576
576 606 620 624 626 627
576 611 622 619 624 624
576 617 648 671 691 709
2050

625
625
725
Impact of Covid-19 in Rapid

% change as a result of Covid-19 2025 2050

GDP -2.6% -3.6%
Primary energy -2.5% -2.9%
Oil demand -3.4% -4.5%
Oil demand (Mb/d) -3.3 -2.2

Alternative case: Greater impact from Covid-19

% change as a result of Covid-19 2025 2050

GDP -4.1% -9.8%
Primary energy -3.5% -7.9%
Oil demand -4.8% -11.0%
Oil demand (Mb/d) -4.6 -5.4
GDP and electricity consumption (per head), 2018

Country GDP per head (PPP (PPP ($'000))

China 15584
Japan 38262
Germany 46094
France 39610
United Kingdom 39735
Brazil 13934
India 6667
Italy 35266
Russia 25089
Spain 34989
Mexico 17140
Indonesia 11409
Turkey 24492
Netherlands 49426
Switzerland 55829
Poland 27660
Argentina 17917
Belgium 41687
Iran, Islamic Rep. 18195
Nigeria 5194
South Africa 11986
Austria 46181
Thailand 16577
Colombia 13113
Denmark 45527
Malaysia 27167
Venezuela, RB 10810
Israel 34793
Philippines 7794
Hong Kong, China 56346
Chile 23033
Ireland 69719
Greece 24408
Egypt 11365
Portugal 27854
Czech Republic 32500
Pakistan 4976
Algeria 13671
Romania 23057
Peru 12223
Kazakhstan 23991
Bangladesh 3965
New Zealand 36225
Iraq 17540
Vietnam 6410
Hungary 28095
Ukraine 7696
Morocco 7560
Angola 5513
Slovak Republic 30550
Puerto Rico 15783
Ecuador 10295
Sri Lanka 12185
Cuba 11761
Myanmar 5816
Oman 35225
Dominican Republic 15073
Belarus 17406
Azerbaijan 15814
Croatia 22480
Uzbekistan 6439
Sudan 5036
Bulgaria 20115
Kenya 3028
Guatemala 7339
Slovenia 32016
Tunisia 10781
Uruguay 20449
Ghana 4167
Costa Rica 15480
Tanzania 2640
Ethiopia 1800
Panama 21822
Lebanon 13214
Serbia 11564
Turkmenistan 16753
Cote d'Ivoire 3721
Latvia 26144
Cameroon 3352
Jordan 8175
Congo, Dem. Rep. 759
Syrian Arab Republic 3558
Zambia 3619
Bolivia 6941
Paraguay 12030
Lithuania 29346
Uganda 1910
Libya 14628
El Salvador 7274
Estonia 29809
Cyprus 25222
Trinidad and Tobago 29641
Afghanistan 1740
Yemen, Rep 1376
Nepal 2550
Honduras 4550
Gabon 16121
Bosnia and Herzegovina 12065
Botswana 15557
Cambodia 3777
Senegal 3120
Congo, Rep. 4890
Georgia 10060
North Korea 1582
Namibia 9092
Papua New Guinea 3085
Mozambique 1120
Brunei 71026
Jamaica 8226
Chad 1717
Albania 11379
Zimbabwe 1812
Equatorial Guinea 19352
Burkina Faso 1727
Mauritius 20582
Mongolia 12137
Armenia 9233
Nicaragua 4945
Mali 2659
West Bank & Gaza 2219
Macedonia, FYR 13590
Malta 43182
Madagascar 1397
Lao PDR 6753
Benin 2116
Bahamas, The 27493
Rwanda 1895
Haiti 1629
Niger 922
Tajikistan 2824
Moldova 5469
Malawi 1081
Kyrgyzstan 3456
Mauritania 3533
Guinea 2020
Suriname 13890
Barbados 16639
Montenegro 16315
East Timor 5091
Togo 1522
Swaziland 7459
Fiji 8700
Sierra Leone 1377
Maldives 15656
Guyana 7476
Aruba 24669
Eritrea 1724
Lesotho 2726
Burundi 620
Bhutan 8113
Cape Verde 6266
Belize 7671
Djibouti 3571
Central African Republic 649
Seychelles 26037
St. Lucia 12066
Antigua and Barbuda 21726
Gambia, The 2436
Guinea-Bissau 1537
Grenada 13481
Solomon Islands 1761
St. Kitts and Nevis 26139
Vanuatu 2577
St. Vincent / Grenadines 10575
Samoa 5195
Comoros 1459
Dominica 8024
Tonga 4775
Sao Tome and Principe 2981
Kiribati 1786
Andorra 27169
Liberia 1157
Somalia 473

Source: Oxford Economics; BP Statistical Review 2019

Tiers based on World Bank definitions
Annual electricity per capita Population (million) Tier
5026 1415 5
8268 127 5
7883 82 5
8802 65 5
5016 67 5
2789 211 4
1153 1354 3
4902 59 5
7716 144 5
5928 46 5
2540 131 4
1002 267 3
3693 82 5
6879 17 5
8170 9 5
4465 38 5
3281 45 5
6489 12 5
3790 82 5
163 196 2
4460 57 5
7791 9 5
2568 69 4
1564 50 4
5299 6 5
5257 32 5
3065 32 5
8239 9 5
937 107 3
4936 7 5
4407 18 5
6427 5 5
4860 11 5
2012 99 4
5822 10 5
8282 11 5
700 201 3
1819 42 4
3329 20 5
1659 33 4
5817 18 5
476 166 3
9328 5 5
2627 39 4
2206 97 4
3301 10 5
3621 44 5
952 36 3
504 31 3
4886 5 5
4771 4 5
1742 17 4
739 21 3
1826 12 4
415 54 3
7721 5 5
1712 11 4
4104 10 5
2539 10 4
3304 4 5
1929 32 4
388 42 3
6650 7 5
222 51 2
770 17 3
7836 2 5
1788 12 4
4139 4 5
537 30 3
2311 5 4
137 59 2
121 108 2
2696 4 4
3569 6 5
4338 9 5
4136 6 5
408 25 3
3456 2 5
365 25 2
2068 10 4
125 84 2
1012 18 3
685 18 3
887 11 3
8591 7 5
1224 3 3
91 44 2
6573 7 5
842 6 3
9520 1 5
4246 1 5
7525 1 5
35 36 1
198 29 2
168 30 2
1086 9 3
1146 2 3
5546 4 5
1170 2 3
490 16 3
330 16 2
335 5 2
3109 4 5
918 26 3
498 3 3
488 8 3
569 31 3
9891 0 5
1789 3 4
16 15 1
2915 3 4
589 17 3
587 1 3
52 20 1
2555 1 4
2135 3 4
2651 3 4
740 6 3
112 19 2
128 5 2
2689 2 4
5009 0 5
75 26 2
4948 7 5
36 12 1
5113 0 5
58 13 1
98 11 2
20 22 1
2164 9 4
1437 4 4
116 19 2
2547 6 4
268 5 2
127 13 2
3688 1 5
3544 0 5
5859 1 5
340 1 2
30 8 1
337 1 2
1140 1 3
30 8 1
1718 0 4
1429 1 4
9122 0 5
88 5 2
224 2 2
15 11 1
9339 1 5
869 1 3
1120 0 3
473 1 3
36 5 1
4442 0 5
2298 0 4
3595 0 5
160 2 2
26 2 1
2200 0 4
179 1 2
4139 0 5
304 0 2
1284 0 4
786 0 3
64 1 1
1809 0 4
607 0 3
435 0 3
279 0 2
1816 0 4
137 5 2
25 15 1
Category by income group
Upper middle income
High income
High income
High income
High income
Upper middle income
Lower middle income
High income
High income
High income
Upper middle income
Lower middle income
Upper middle income
High income
High income
High income
Upper middle income
High income
Upper middle income
Lower middle income
Lower middle income
High income
Upper middle income
Upper middle income
High income
High income
Lower middle income
High income
Lower middle income
High income
Upper middle income
High income
Upper middle income
Lower middle income
High income
High income
Lower middle income
Upper middle income
Upper middle income
Upper middle income
Upper middle income
Low income
High income
Upper middle income
Lower middle income
High income
Lower middle income
Lower middle income
Lower middle income
High income
Upper middle income
Lower middle income
Upper middle income
Lower middle income
Lower middle income
High income
Upper middle income
Upper middle income
Upper middle income
Upper middle income
Lower middle income
Lower middle income
Upper middle income
Low income
Lower middle income
High income
Lower middle income
Upper middle income
Lower middle income
Upper middle income
Low income
Low income
Upper middle income
Upper middle income
Lower middle income
Upper middle income
Low income
High income
Low income
Lower middle income
Low income
Low income
Low income
Lower middle income
Upper middle income
High income
Low income
Upper middle income
Lower middle income
High income
High income
High income
Low income
Low income
Low income
Lower middle income
Upper middle income
Upper middle income
Upper middle income
Low income
Low income
Lower middle income
Lower middle income
Low income
Lower middle income
Low income
Low income
 High income
Lower middle income
Low income
Lower middle income
Low income
Upper middle income
Low income
Upper middle income
Upper middle income
Lower middle income
Lower middle income
Low income
Low income
Upper middle income
High income
Low income
Lower middle income
Low income
High income
Low income
Low income
Low income
Low income
Lower middle income
Low income
Low income
Low income
Low income
Upper middle income
Upper middle income
Upper middle income
Lower middle income
Low income
Lower middle income
Lower middle income
Low income
Upper middle income
Lower middle income
Upper middle income
Low income
Low income
Low income
Lower middle income
Lower middle income
Lower middle income
Low income
Low income
High income
Upper middle income
Upper middle income
Low income
Low income
Upper middle income
Low income
High income
 Low income
Lower middle income
Lower middle income
Low income
Lower middle income
Lower middle income
Low income
Low income
High income
Low income
Low income
Proportion of world population with Tier 3* access to electricity or less

%
2018 46%
Rapid 23%
Net Zero 24%
Business-as-usual 25%

* Tier 3 access assumes less than 16 hours of uninterrupted medium electricity during the day and less than 4 hours during the evening
4 hours during the evening
Primary energy consumption by end-use sector

2050
EJ 2018 Rapid Net Zero Business-as-usual
Industry 250 254 261 291
Buildings 169 179 177 234
Transport 119 147 159 147
Non-combusted 38 44 28 53
Annual demand growth and sector contributions

2050
% per annum 1990 - 2018 Rapid Net Zero Business-as-usual
Industry 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2%
Buildings 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
Transport 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Non-combusted 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% 0.1%
Primary energy demand in industry

2050
Business-
EJ 2018 Rapid Net Zero
as-usual
Emerging (ex. China) 86 129 136 147
Developed + China 164 125 125 144
Growth of final energy consumption in industry by energy carrier

2050 Business-
% per annum 1990 - 2018 Rapid Net Zero as-usual
Liquids 0.0% -0.3% -0.5% -0.1%
Gas 0.4% 0.0% -0.4% 0.3%
Coal 0.5% -0.9% -1.0% -0.3%
Electricity 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
Hydrogen 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Biomass 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Total 1.6% -0.4% -0.8% 0.4%
Non-combusted demand by fuel

Rapid Net zero Business-as-usual

EJ 2018 2035 2050 2018 2035 2050 2018
Oil 28 32 31 28 30 20 28
Gas 8 11 11 8 9 7 8
Coal 2 3 2 2 2 1 2
Business-as-usual
2035 2050
34 37
11 13
3 3
Oil feedstock for plastics and fibres

Mb/d 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040

Extrapolation of past trends 9.7 11.2 12.7 14.1 15.3
Rapid 9.7 11.0 12.0 12.5 12.6
Net Zero 9.7 11.0 11.3 10.8 9.6
Business-as-usual 9.7 11.2 12.4 13.4 14.1
2045 2050
16.5 17.5
12.4 11.7
8.3 7.2
14.6 15.0
Primary energy demand in buildings

2050
EJ 2018 Rapid Net Zero Business-as-usual
Developed 84 53 59 79
Emerging 85 126 118 155
Growth of final energy consumption in buildings by energy carrier

2050
% per annum 1995-2018 Rapid Net Zero Business-as-usual
Oil 0.0% -0.5% -0.7% -0.2%
Natural gas 0.4% -0.5% -0.9% 0.1%
Coal -0.1% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2%
Electricity 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 1.1%
Hydrogen 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Other 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Total 1.6% -0.3% -0.6% 0.8%
Primary energy demand in transport

2050
EJ 2018 Rapid Net Zero Business-as-usual
Developed 61 56 57 55
Emerging 58 92 102 92
Share of final energy consumption in transport by energy carrier

2050
% 2018 Rapid Net Zero Business-as-usual
Oil 93% 43% 22% 77%
Biofuels 4% 10% 15% 6%
Gas 2% 6% 6% 5%
Electricity 1% 33% 42% 11%
Hydrogen 0% 9% 16% 0%
Share of car and truck vehicle kilometres electrified*

% 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Rapid 1% 4% 9% 28% 49% 63% 74%
Net Zero 1% 4% 9% 29% 56% 73% 81%
Business-as-usual 1% 2% 5% 12% 23% 29% 32%

* includes buses
Factors impacting passenger car liquid fuels demand in 2050

Mb/d Rapid Net Zero Business-as-usual

Increase in passenger car VKM 24 20 27
ICE car fuel efficiency -25 -21 -25
Electrification -14 -15 -6
Change in liquid fuels demand -15 -16 -4
Change in share of road passenger vehicle kilometres, 2020-2050

% Rapid Net Zero Business-as-usual

Human taxi 3.0% 2.9% 1.9%
Robotaxi 16.9% 16.5% 10.5%
Own car -9.3% -9.9% 0.6%
Bus -4.9% -4.9% -5.8%
Light duty truck 0.0% 1.5% -3.3%
2/3 wheelers -5.7% -6.2% -3.8%
Robotaxi share of passenger car vehicle kilometres powered by electricity

% 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Rapid 0% 0% 9% 42% 48% 41%
Net Zero 0% 0% 9% 40% 43% 37%
Business-as-usual 0% 0% 2% 20% 48% 49%
2050
37%
35%
41%
Primary energy demand in transport by mode

2050
EJ 2018 Rapid Net Zero Business-as-usual
Aviation 14 15 13 19
Rail 2 2 2 2
Marine 11 10 8 13
Passenger vehicle 41 18 19 39
Trucks 49 52 47 55
Aviation and marine demand by source

EJ 2050
Aviation 2018 Rapid Net Zero Business-as-usual
Oil 14 10 6 19
Biofuels 0 5 7 1
Natural Gas 0 0 0 0
Hydrogen 0 0 0 0

2050
Marine 2018 Rapid Net Zero Business-as-usual
Oil 11 6 1 11
Biofuels 0 1 2 0
Natural gas 0 1 1 2
Hydrogen 0 2 3 0
Primary energy consumption by region

2050
EJ 2018 Rapid Net Zero Business-as-usual
Other 105 120 114 143
Africa 19 43 40 47
Other Asia 41 66 68 76
India 34 75 77 86
China 136 141 139 155
Developed 240 180 186 218
Primary energy growth and regional contributions

2050
% per annum 2000-2018 Rapid Net Zero Business-as-usual
Other 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
Africa 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Other Asia 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
India 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
China 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Developed 0.0% -0.3% -0.3% -0.1%
Total 2.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7%
Energy consumption per head in Rapid

2018 2050
GJ per head Developed Emerging Developed Emerging
Developed/Emerging 175 54 125 54
EU 136 98
US 292 176
China 95 101
India 25 46
Carbon emissions per head in Rapid

2018 2050
Tonnes of CO2 per head Developed Emerging Developed Emerging
Developed/Emerging 9.2 3.4 1.5 0.9
EU 6.8 1.0
US 15.6 2.3
China 6.6 1.0
India 1.8 0.7
Shares of energy sources

%
2018 US EU China India
Oil 38% 38% 20% 30%
Natural gas 31% 24% 8% 6%
Coal 14% 13% 59% 56%
Renewables 6% 10% 4% 3%

Rapid, 2050 US EU China India

Oil 17% 11% 9% 13%
Natural gas 25% 14% 13% 16%
Coal 0% 0% 7% 12%
Renewables 46% 58% 48% 49%
Net import and exports of oil and gas by region in Rapid

Middle East Russia US China

EJ 2018 2050 2018 2050 2018 2050 2018
Oil 45 31 17 10 -9 3 -19
Gas 5 9 8 11 1 11 -4
Total 50 41 25 22 -8 14 -23
China India
2050 2018 2050
-11 -8 -10
-9 -1 -9
-20 -9 -19
Alternative scenario: Deglobalization
Deglobalization versus Rapid: Global GDP and energy in 2050

%
GDP -6.1%
Natural gas -2.2%
Renewables -1.9%
Oil -1.2%
Coal -0.2%
Net exports of oil and gas in 2050

EJ Rapid Deglobalization
US 14 7
Russia 22 15
China -20 -14
India -19 -16
Shares of primary energy

%
Renewables 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Rapid 5% 11% 16% 24% 33% 40% 44%
Net Zero 5% 12% 21% 35% 48% 55% 59%
Business-as-usual 5% 8% 11% 13% 17% 19% 22%

Hydrocarbons 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Rapid 85% 78% 72% 63% 53% 45% 40%
Net Zero 85% 76% 66% 51% 37% 28% 22%
Business-as-usual 85% 81% 78% 76% 72% 69% 67%
Primary energy consumption by source

2050
EJ 2018 Rapid Net Zero Business-as-usual
Oil 190 89 42 172
Natural gas 138 134 82 187
Coal 158 24 12 123
Nuclear 24 44 57 31
Hydro 38 57 62 51
Renewables 27 277 370 161
Liquids fuels consumption

Mb/d 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

History 77 78 79 80 83 85 86
Rapid
Net Zero
Business-as-usual
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
87 87 86 89 90 91 92 93 95
2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
97 98 100
100 98 95 85 73 62 52
100 98 93 79 58 42 31
100 101 101 100 98 96 93
Liquids fuels supply growth

Mb/d, average annual growth 2018-2030 2030-2050 2018-2030 2030-2050

US tight oil 0.4 -0.4 0.4 -0.2
OPEC -0.9 -0.2 -0.5 0.3
Other non-OPEC 0.0 -1.6 0.1 -0.5
Total -0.5 -2.1 0.1 -0.4
Liquid fuels demand by sector

2050
Mb/d 2018 Rapid Net Zero Business-as-usual
Non-combusted 16 19 12 22
Industry 13 6 1 11
Buildings 11 2 1 6
Power 4 1 1 1
Cars 21 4 2 16
Trucks 24 11 6 22
Non-Road 13 11 8 15
Consumption of liquid fuels in transport

Mb/d 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

History 39 40 41 41 43 44
Rapid
Net Zero
Business-as-usual
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
46 47 47 47 48 49 50 51 52
2015 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
53 54 56 57
57 56 55 49 40 32
57 56 55 47 33 22
57 57 58 57 55 54
2050

25
16
53
US tight oil production

Rapid Business-as-usual
Mb/d 2018 2030 2050 2030 2050
Crude & condensates 6.9 9.6 4.6 10.1 6.2
NGLs 3.4 5.1 3.1 5.4 4.6
Liquid fuels supply by region

Rapid Business-as-usual
Mb/d 2018 2030 2050 2030 2050
US 18 21 11 21 15
Brazil 3 6 3 5 5
Russia 12 12 7 12 12
Other non-OPEC 30 29 10 31 23
OPEC 38 27 23 32 39

OPEC share 38% 29% 43% 32% 42%

Average carbon intensity of crude production by country, 2015

g of CO2e/MJ Carbon intensity Error bar (low) Error bar (high)

Saudi Arabia 5 4 7
Norway 6 5 11
Qatar 7 6 11
China 7 6 14
UAE 7 6 15
Angola 8 7 14
UK 8 7 11
Kazakhstan 10 8 17
Russia 10 9 17
Mexico 10 7 11
Brazil 10 7 13
US 11 9 18
Nigeria 13 11 17
Iraq 14 13 19
Iran 17 14 23
Canada 18 16 22
Venezuela 20 15 31
Algeria 20 18 30

Source: Masnadi et al. (2018), Global carbon intensity of crude production graph includes countries with crude and condesates above 1 M
rude and condesates above 1 Mb/d in 2018. Error bars include 5-95th percentile of fields
Carbon intensity: impact on volumes*

Mb/d Rapid Business-as-usual

Highest quartile of carbon intensity -2.0 -0.1
Middle two quartiles of carbon intensity -0.6 0.0
Lowest quartile of carbon intensity 2.7 0.1

*Difference in crude and condensate supplies relative to a counterfactual in which supplies have the same carbon intensity
arbon intensity
Refininery throughput

Mb/d 2010 2018 2030 2040 2050

History 75 83
Rapid 72 52 36
Business-as-usual 80 75 72
Refininery capacity changes, 2018-2050

Mb/d Rapid Business-as-usual

Developed -34 -20
Product importers with growing demand 1 10
Other -19 -1
World -52 -11
Gas consumption

Bcm 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

History 2399 2433 2505 2574 2672 2745 2814
Rapid
Net Zero
Business-as-usual
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2929 2999 2938 3157 3233 3318 3370 3393 3467
2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
3550 3654 3849
3849 4307 4579 4613 4383 4035 3950
3849 4060 3916 3348 2928 2667 2527
3849 4297 4655 4906 5071 5192 5305
Gas production growth by region

Rapid Business-as-usual
Bcm 2018-2035 2035-2050 2018-2035 2035-2050
US 103 -133 257 96
Africa 209 58 165 151
Middle East 250 -245 250 83
China 168 17 163 62
Russia 129 -127 208 40
Other -84 -255 -11 -28
Total 774 -684 1033 403
Change in gas demand by sector, 2018-2050

Bcm Rapid Net Zero Business-as-usual

Power -32 -959 482
Industry -27 -549 528
Buildings -382 -746 85
Transport 89 80 131
Non-combusted 90 -37 144
Hydrogen 362 890 85
Rapid vs. Business-as-usual: India and Other Asia*
Differences in shares of primary energy

% 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Coal 0% -5% -11% -19% -25% -26% -26%
Natural gas 0% 3% 5% 7% 6% 3% 3%
Oil 0% -1% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10%
Non-fossil 0% 3% 8% 16% 25% 31% 32%

*Other Asia excludes China and OECD Asia

Natural gas with CCUS as a share of primary energy

% Rapid Business-as-usual
Direct energy use 6.7% 0.9%
Blue hydrogen 1.5% 0.0%
LNG import and exports
(Imports shown as negative)

Rapid Business-as-usual
Bcm 2018 2035 2050 2035 2050
Imports:
OECD Asia -173 -146 -127 -164 -153
China -74 -213 -127 -197 -154
India -31 -222 -256 -98 -145
Other Asia -45 -315 -289 -222 -307
Europe -67 -95 -88 -133 -138
Other imports -37 -75 -79 -80 -128
Exports:
US 28 280 249 204 233
Russia 25 108 108 108 129
Middle East 126 247 233 203 259
Africa 54 153 158 155 189
Australia 92 114 86 114 104
Other exports 100 165 132 109 112
Renewable energy used in power sector

2050
EJ 2018 Rapid Net Zero Business-as-usual
Wind 11 121 155 78
Solar 5 110 155 59
Geothermal and biomass 6 28 36 13
Cost of wind and solar energy by scenario

100% = 2018 price 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Rapid 100% 80% 68% 57% 48% 41%
Solar Net Zero 100% 79% 65% 54% 45% 37%
Business-as-usual 100% 83% 73% 64% 57% 50%
Rapid 100% 88% 84% 80% 76% 73%
Wind Net Zero 100% 87% 82% 78% 74% 70%
Business-as-usual 100% 88% 85% 82% 79% 77%
2050
35%
31%
44%
70%
66%
74%
Annual average in wind and solar capacity

GW 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2018 2018-2025

History 9 32 83 137 168
Rapid 137 245
Net Zero 137 269
Business-as-usual 137 270
2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2050
229 212 277 271 290
331 506 663 558 366
522 929 974 594 385
536 1015 1290 929 809
Installed capacity of wind and solar energy

GW Rapid Net Zero

Electricity generation 12091 13356
Green hydrogen 2792 6593
Coal consumption

EJ 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

History 99 100 104 113 121 130
Rapid
Net Zero
Business-as-usual
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
137 145 147 145 151 158 159 162 162
2015 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
158 155 156 158
158 134 109 78 50 35
158 136 106 60 35 20
158 155 149 145 138 131
2050

24
12
123
Change in coal demand by sector and region, 2018-2050

Rapid Business-as-usual
EJ Power Industry Other sectors Power Industry Other sectors
Developed -29 -7 -1 -22 -5 -1
China -40 -29 -2 -12 -23 0
India -7 -3 0 9 8 -1
Other Asia -4 -3 0 9 2 0
Other -6 -4 -1 1 1 0
Nuclear generation

TWh 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

History 2581 2654 2696 2642 2757 2769
Rapid
Net Zero
Business-as-usual
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2804 2746 2738 2699 2768 2652 2473 2492
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 2035
2541 2576 2615 2639 2701
2701 3082 3489 4043
2701 3108 3696 4433
2701 2944 3194 3293
2040 2045 2050

4601 5043 5468

5177 6165 7124
3470 3706 3830
Change in nuclear generation by region, 2018-2050

TWh Rapid Net Zero Business-as-usual

China 1650 1851 1491
India 538 622 305
US -184 117 -759
EU -246 231 -441
Middle East 220 251 203
Other 787 1350 331
Total 2766 4422 1129
Hydroelectricity generation by region

2050
TWh 2018 Rapid Net Zero Business-as-usual
China 1202 2012 2082 1802
Developed 1477 1828 2065 1737
Other Asia 249 726 816 638
Africa 132 480 526 407
S&C America 731 1351 1455 1190
Other 400 706 797 635
Hydroelectricity growth by region

% per annum 2000-2018 Rapid Net Zero Business-as-usual

China 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Africa 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
S&C America 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Other Asia 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Other 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Share of electricity in total final consumption

% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

History 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 20%
Rapid
Net Zero
Business-as-usual
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
20% 20% 20% 20% 21% 21% 21% 21% 22%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
22% 22% 22% 22%
22% 26% 28% 32% 37% 41%
22% 27% 30% 35% 41% 47%
22% 25% 26% 28% 30% 32%
2050

45%
52%
34%
Change in electricity demand by sector, 2018-2050

TWh Rapid Net Zero Buiness-as-usual

Transport 8436 10072 3759
Industry 5454 6407 6677
Buildings 7001 6220 11329
Share of global power generation by energy source

%
Rapid 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Wind & solar 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1%
Coal 39% 39% 39% 40% 40% 40%
Natural gas 18% 19% 19% 20% 20% 21%

Net Zero 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Wind & solar 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1%
Coal 39% 39% 39% 40% 40% 40%
Natural gas 18% 19% 19% 20% 20% 21%

Business-as-usual 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Wind & solar 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1%
Coal 39% 39% 39% 40% 40% 40%
Natural gas 18% 19% 19% 20% 20% 21%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4%
41% 42% 41% 40% 40% 41% 40% 41% 41%
21% 22% 22% 22% 23% 22% 23% 22% 22%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4%
41% 42% 41% 40% 40% 41% 40% 41% 41%
21% 22% 22% 22% 23% 22% 23% 22% 22%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4%
41% 42% 41% 40% 40% 41% 40% 41% 41%
21% 22% 22% 22% 23% 22% 23% 22% 22%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
5% 5% 6% 7% 17% 24% 34% 45% 52%
39% 38% 39% 38% 27% 19% 11% 5% 3%
23% 24% 23% 23% 26% 26% 23% 19% 14%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

5% 5% 6% 7% 19% 31% 49% 60% 64%
39% 38% 39% 38% 28% 18% 7% 2% 1%
23% 24% 23% 23% 22% 17% 10% 6% 4%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

5% 5% 6% 7% 13% 18% 22% 27% 31%
39% 38% 39% 38% 33% 29% 27% 24% 22%
23% 24% 23% 23% 24% 24% 24% 23% 21%
2050
55%
3%
13%

2050
64%
1%
5%

2050
35%
20%
20%
Share of Indian power generation by energy source in Rapid

% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 2035

Gas 5% 5% 5% 5% 11% 16% 20%
Coal 76% 77% 76% 75% 60% 43% 25%
Wind & solar 3% 4% 5% 6% 14% 25% 38%
2040 2045 2050
18% 15% 14%
13% 10% 10%
52% 56% 57%
Annual average net capacity additions in wind and solar in India

GW 2010-2015 2015-2018 2018-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035

Rapid 2 9 19 49 82
Business-as-usual 2 9 10 24 30
Alternative case 1 2 9 42 44 56
2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2050
104 70 44
43 48 58
104 70 44
Generation from gas in India

TWh 2015 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030

History 65 73 74 74
Rapid 74 266 549
Net Zero 74 228 354
Business-as-usual 74 139 207
Alternative case 2 74 576 813
2035 2040 2045 2050

837 928 911 938

321 254 246 319
259 307 349 391
837 928 911 938
Hydrogen use by sector

Rapid Net Zero

EJ 2035 2050 2035 2050
Buildings 0.7 1.9 2.6 9.5
Industry 3.4 14.4 3.1 23.5
Transport 0.6 8.4 1.3 14.3
Power 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.6
Hydrogen use by region

Rapid Net Zero

EJ 2035 2050 2035 2050
China 1.1 7.4 2.1 14.3
North America 1.0 4.8 1.3 10.4
Europe 1.0 3.9 1.6 7.2
OECD Asia 0.4 1.5 0.6 3.8
India and Other Asia 0.3 1.8 0.3 5.7
Other 1.0 5.3 1.2 16.7
Hydrogen production by type

Rapid Net Zero

EJ 2018 2035 2050 2035 2050
Grey hydrogen 0.0 1.9 0.9 2.7 0.0
Blue hydrogen 0.0 1.5 11.0 2.3 27.5
Green hydrogen 0.0 1.4 12.9 2.2 30.5
Annual average increase in wind and solar capacity

GW 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2018

History 9 32 83 137
Rapid 137
Business-as-usual 137
Net Zero 137
Net Zero with 100% green hydrogen 137
2018-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2050

245 331 506 663 558 366

168 229 212 277 271 290
269 522 929 974 594 385
270 536 1015 1290 929 809
Global carbon emissions from energy use

Gt of CO2 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

History 18 18 18 18 19 19
Rapid
Net Zero
Business-as-usual
IPCC 2C median (high)
IPCC 2C median (low)
IPCC 1.5C median (high)
IPCC 1.5C median (low)

Ranges show 10th and 90th percentiles of IPCC scenarios, see pp 150-151 for more details
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
19 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 22
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
22 23 23 23 23 24 24 25 26
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
27 28 29 30 30 30 31 32 32
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 2035
33 33 33 33 33 34
34 31 28 22
34 31 26 17
34 34 34 34
34 34 32 27
34 26 18 15
34 29 24 20
34 21 12 9
2040 2045 2050

17 12 9
10 5 1
33 32 30
24 21 17
11 8 5
16 14 10
3 1 -1
Carbon emissions by sector

2050
Gt of CO2 2018 Rapid Net Zero Business-as-usual
Power 13.0 2.4 -1.2 11.9
Industry 9.2 2.4 0.7 8.1
Transport 8.0 3.3 1.7 7.5
Buildings 3.6 1.0 0.2 2.6
Hydrogen 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4
Net 1.4
Carbon emissions from energy use

Gt of CO2 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Business-as-usual 34 34 34 34 33 32 31
Efficiency 0 1 2 4 5 6 8
Energy mix 0 2 3 6 8 10 10
CCUS 0 0 0 2 3 3 4
Rapid 34 32 29 22 17 12 9
Efficiency 0 0 0 1 1 2 1
Energy mix 0 0 2 4 5 5 5
CCUS 0 0 0 1 1 1 2
Net Zero 34 31 26 17 10 5 1
Carbon capture utilization and storage in 2050

Gt of CO2 Rapid Net Zero

Industry 1.4 0.8
Power 1.7 2.7
Hydrogen 0.7 2.0
Alternative scenario Delayed and Disorderly
Energy Intensity

MJ per $US of GDP 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

History 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7
Rapid
Business-as-usual
Delayed and Disorderly
2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
4.6 4.5 4.5
4.5 3.9 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.1
4.5 3.9 3.6 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.4
4.5 3.9 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.1
Alternative scenario Delayed and Disorderly
Carbon intensity of energy

Mt of CO2 per EJ 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

History 60 60 60 61 61
Rapid
Business-as-usual
Delayed and Disorderly
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
62 62 62 62 62 62 62
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
61 61 61 60 60 59 59
59
59
59
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

52 46 36 27 20 15
55 52 50 47 45 42
55 52 43 34 24 15
Alternative scenario Delayed and Disorderly
Cumulative carbon emissions

Gt of CO2 2018 2025 2030 2035

Rapid 34 260 409 533
Delayed and disorderly (before rationing) 34 268 438 592
Delayed and disorderly 34 268 438 573
2040 2045 2050
627 697 749
717 810 870
663 718 749
Alternative scenario Delayed and Disorderly
Primary energy consumption

EJ 2010 2011 2012 2013

History 506 518 525 535
Rapid
Delayed and Disorderly (before rationing)
Delayed and Disorderly
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040
539 543 550 560 576
576 606 620 624 626
576 617 648 666 668
576 617 648 534 441
2045 2050

627 625
656 625
363 300
Hydrocarbon use by scenario

100% = 2018 level 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Rapid 100% 97% 91% 81% 68% 58%
Net Zero 100% 95% 85% 64% 47% 36%
Business-as-usual 100% 103% 104% 104% 103% 101%
2050
51%
28%
99%
Share of electricity and hydrogen in final energy consumption*

% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Rapid 23% 23% 23% 23% 24% 24% 24%
Electricity
Net Zero 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rapid 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Hydrogen
Net Zero 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

*Excluding non-combusted
2017 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
24% 25% 28% 31% 36% 41% 46% 51%
0% 25% 29% 33% 38% 46% 53% 59%
0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 5% 7%
0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 5% 10% 16%
Total final consumption by carrier*

2050
EJ 2018 Rapid Net Zero
Coal 57 6 1
Oil 155 57 21
Natural gas 76 61 29
Hydrogen 0 25 47
Electricity 95 170 177
Bioenergy 5 18 25

*Excluding non-combusted
Net Zero
Total final consumption by energy source in 2050*

EJ Rapid Net Zero

Bioenergy 18 25
Electricity from bioenergy 9 11
Electricity 161 166
Hydrogen 25 47
Oil 57 21
Natural gas 40 15
Natural gas + CCS 21 14
Coal 2 0
Coal + CCS 4 1

*Excluding non-combusted
Net Zero
Global energy demand in IPCC scenarios and Net Zero

EJ Primary energy Total final consumption

IPCC low at net zero 548 335
IPCC high at net zero 1213 623
IPCC median at net zero 906 469
Net Zero in 2050 625 340

*Ranges show 10th and 90th percentiles of IPCC scenarios

Net Zero
Total final consumption in 2050

EJ
Net Zero 340
Energy per head at least at EU level 528
Energy per head at EU level in all regions 489
Shares of electricity, wind and solar in IPCC scenarios and Net Zero

% Share of electricity in final energy

IPCC low at net zero 42%
IPCC high at net zero 72%
IPCC median at net zero 56%
Net Zero in 2050 52%
and Net Zero

Share of wind & solar in electricity

38%
86%
63%
62%
Oil consumption in IPCC scenarios and Net Zero

Mb/d IPPC at net zero Net Zero in 2050

Low 11
High 72
Median 35
Transport 10
Non-combusted 12
Other 2
Natural gas consumption in IPCC scenarios and Net Zero

Bcm IPPC at net zero Net Zero in 2050

Low 967
High 3761
Median 2241
Non-combusted 187
Natural gas with CCUS 861
Blue hydrogen from gas 774
Combusted gas without CCUS 442
Bioenergy in IPCC scenarios and Net Zero

EJ IPCC at net zero By sector By fuel

Low 39
High 156
Median 81
Transport 14
Industry 10
Buildings 2
Power 26
Hydrogen 4
Biofuels 15
Biomass 31
Biomethane 10
Hydrogen in IPCC scenarios and Net Zero

EJ IPCC at net zero By sector By type

Low 14
High 59
Median 38
Transport 14
Industry 24
Buildings 10
Power 11
Blue hydrogen 27
Green hydrogen 31
Carbon captured in IPCC scenarios and Net Zero

Gt of CO2 Carbon capture use and storage

IPCC low at net zero 7.7
IPCC high at net zero 18.1
IPCC median at net zero 13.2
Net Zero in 2050 5.5
Bioenergy with CCUS Natural climate solutions
5.1 -3.2
11.2 6.8
8.2 4.2
1.6 0.0
CCUS by sector and fuel type in Net Zero in 2050

Gt of CO2 Emissions from combustion of fossil

CCUS by sector
fuels before CCUS
Emissions from combustion of fossil fuels
before CCUS 6.9
Power 2.7
Hydrogen 2.0
Industry 0.8
Unabated emissions

Gt of CO2 CCUS by fuel

Gas 3.1
Coal 0.8
Biomass 1.6
Unabated emissions

1.4
Average annual investment, history and 2020-2050

Wind and solar Oil and gas

2018 US$ Billion 2013-2018 BAU Rapid Net Zero 2013-2018 BAU
Low 250 300 500 650 750 700
High 350 400 600 750 850 800
Oil and gas CCUS facilities
Rapid Net Zero BAU Rapid Net Zero
350 300 5 75 100
450 400 15 125 150
Average annual investment in wind and solar

Five-year rolling average, 2018 US$ Billion 2015 2018 2025 2030
History 245 282
Rapid 282 463 474
Net Zero 282 580 721
Business-as-usual 282 335 347
2035 2040 2045 2050

645 756 574 349

1102 1032 569 354
294 356 325 324
Consumption and production of oil

Mb/d 1990 1991 1992 1993

History 66 66 67 67
Rapid
Net Zero
Business-as-usual
Supply with no new greenfield investment
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
68 69 71 73 75 73 76 77 76
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
79 83 84 85 85 85 84 86 87
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030
89 89 91 94 95 95 98
98 95 89
98 94 87
98 98 98
98 87 69
2035 2040 2045 2050

79 67 57 47
72 51 36 24
97 94 92 89
54 42 33 26
Consumption and production of natural gas

Bcm 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

History 1973 1997 2003 2025 2054
Rapid
Net Zero
Business-as-usual
Supply with no greenfield investment
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
2088 2189 2189 2247 2311 2403 2460 2516 2606
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2691 2755 2849 2922 3030 2938 3151 3256 3323
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2025 2030 2035
3363 3430 3501 3539 3673 3865
3865 4272 4501 4491
3865 4024 3836 3220
3865 4280 4619 4852
3865 3475 2832 2259
2040 2045 2050

4220 3836 3708

2754 2452 2263
4998 5103 5199
1746 1306 965
GDP, energy and carbon emissions

% change in 2040 vs previous Outlook

GDP -8%
Primary energy -4%
CO2 -14%
Shares of primary energy

Percentage point change in 2040 vs previous Outlook

Oil -4.3%
Gas -3.6%
Coal -0.9%
Nuclear 0.8%
Hydro 0.8%
Wind & solar 3.3%
Bioenergy & other 3.9%
Growth in primary energy by source, 2018-2050

% per annum Primary energy Oil

Rapid 0.3% -2.3%
Energy forecasts; low -0.4% -2.1%
Energy forecasts; high 1.4% -0.5%
IPCC 2°C scenarios; 10th percentile -0.1% -3.3%
IPCC 2°C scenarios; 90th percentile 1.2% -0.1%
Median IPCC 2°C scenarios 0.7% -1.1%
 Nuclear
Gas Coal & Hydro Renewables
-0.1% -5.7% 1.5% 7.5%
-0.8% -5.6% 1.1% 5.8%
0.0% -1.5% 1.3% 8.8%
-2.8% -8.1% 0.3% 5.7%
0.7% -1.4% 2.8% 9.7%
-0.9% -3.6% 1.4% 7.5%
CO2 emissions and CCUS in 2050

Gt of CO2 CO2 Emisisons CCUS

Rapid 9.4 3.9
Energy forecasts; low 9.9 1.0
Energy forecasts; high 16.2 7.1
IPCC 2°C scenarios; 10th percentile 4.7 5.4
IPCC 2°C scenarios; 90th percentile 17.3 15.3
IPCC median 11.1 7.8