p

r
o
m
e
d demanda
i
t dt o 200,000
Jan-17 193,200 ###
Feb-17 198,000 ### 195,000

Mar-17 189,600 ###

190,000
Apr-17 189,600 ###
May-17 196,800 ### 185,000
Jun-17 182,400 ###
Jul-17 183,600 ### 180,000
Aug-17 186,000 ###
Sep-17 195,600 ### 175,000
Oct-17 190,800 ###
170,000
Nov-17 195,600 ### Nov-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18
Dec-17 192,000 ###
Jan-18 192,000 ###
demanda y media movil
Feb-18 189,600 ###
Mar-18 186,000 ### 200,000

Apr-18 184,800 ###

195,000
May-18 194,400 ###
Jun-18 196,800 ### 190,000
Jul-18 190,800 ###
Aug-18 192,520 ### 185,000
Sep-18 ?
Oct-18 ? 180,000

Nov-18 ?
175,000
Dec-18 ? Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18
Jan-19 ?
dt F(t+1)=Prom d(t) N
 Promedio movil (N=2)

t dt F(t+1)=Prom d(t) N Et abs Et

Jan-17 193,200
Feb-17 198,000
Mar-17 189,600 195,600 - 6,000 6,000
Apr-17 189,600 193,800 - 4,200 4,200
May-17 196,800 189,600 7,200 7,200
Jun-17 182,400 193,200 - 10,800 10,800
Jul-17 183,600 189,600 - 6,000 6,000
Aug-17 186,000 183,000 3,000 3,000
Sep-17 195,600 184,800 10,800 10,800
Oct-17 190,800 190,800 - -
18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Nov-17 195,600 193,200 2,400 2,400
Dec-17 192,000 193,200 - 1,200 1,200
Jan-18 192,000 193,800 - 1,800 1,800
Feb-18 189,600 192,000 - 2,400 2,400
Mar-18 186,000 190,800 - 4,800 4,800
Apr-18 184,800 187,800 - 3,000 3,000
May-18 194,400 185,400 9,000 9,000
Jun-18 196,800 189,600 7,200 7,200
Jul-18 190,800 195,600 - 4,800 4,800
Aug-18 192,520 193,800 - 1,280 1,280
Sep-18 X 191,660
Oct-18 X 192,090 MASE 4,771.11
Nov-18 X 191,875 RMSE 5,722.85
r-18 May-18 Jul-18 Dec-18 X 191,983
Jan-19 X 191,929
 Et^2

36,000,000
17,640,000
51,840,000
116,640,000
36,000,000
9,000,000
116,640,000
-
5,760,000
1,440,000
3,240,000
5,760,000
23,040,000
9,000,000
81,000,000
51,840,000
23,040,000
1,638,400
 p
r
o
m
e
d
i
t dt o
Jan-17 193,200 ### demanda
Feb-17 198,000 ###
200,000
Mar-17 189,600 ###
Apr-17 189,600 ### 195,000
May-17 196,800 ###
Jun-17 182,400 ### 190,000
Jul-17 183,600 ###
Aug-17 186,000 ### 185,000
Sep-17 195,600 ###
180,000
Oct-17 190,800 ###
Nov-17 195,600 ###
175,000
Dec-17 192,000 ###
Jan-18 192,000 ### 170,000
Nov-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18
Feb-18 189,600 ###
Mar-18 186,000 ###
Apr-18 184,800 ###
May-18 194,400 ###
Jun-18 196,800 ###
Jul-18 190,800 ###
Aug-18 191,200 ###
Sep-18 ?
Oct-18 ?
Nov-18 ?
Dec-18 ? Este método se puede complementar con un mejora
Jan-19 ?
 t dt F(t+1)=Prom d(t) N Et abs Et
Jan-17 193,200
Feb-17 198,000 193,200 4,800 4,800
Mar-17 189,600 198,000 - 8,400 8,400
Apr-17 189,600 189,600 - -
May-17 196,800 189,600 7,200 7,200
Jun-17 182,400 196,800 - 14,400 14,400
Jul-17 183,600 182,400 1,200 1,200
Aug-17 186,000 183,600 2,400 2,400
Sep-17 195,600 186,000 9,600 9,600
Oct-17 190,800 195,600 - 4,800 4,800
Nov-17 195,600 190,800 4,800 4,800
Dec-17 192,000 195,600 - 3,600 3,600
Jan-18 192,000 192,000 - -
18 Jul-18 Oct-18
Feb-18 189,600 192,000 - 2,400 2,400
Mar-18 186,000 189,600 - 3,600 3,600
Apr-18 184,800 186,000 - 1,200 1,200
May-18 194,400 184,800 9,600 9,600
Jun-18 196,800 194,400 2,400 2,400
Jul-18 190,800 196,800 - 6,000 6,000
Aug-18 191,200 190,800 400 400
Sep-18 X 191,200
Oct-18 X MASE 4,555.56
Nov-18 X RMSE 5,974.02
mentar con un mejora Dec-18 X
Jan-19 X
 Et^2

23,040,000
70,560,000
-
51,840,000
207,360,000
1,440,000
5,760,000
92,160,000
23,040,000
23,040,000
12,960,000
-
5,760,000
12,960,000
1,440,000
92,160,000
5,760,000
36,000,000
160,000
 p
r
o
m
e
d
i
t dt o
Jan-17 193,200 ### demanda
Feb-17 198,000 ###
200,000
Mar-17 189,600 ###
Apr-17 189,600 ### 195,000
May-17 196,800 ###
Jun-17 182,400 ### 190,000
Jul-17 183,600 ###
Aug-17 186,000 ### 185,000
Sep-17 195,600 ###
180,000
Oct-17 190,800 ###
Nov-17 195,600 ###
175,000
Dec-17 192,000 ###
Jan-18 192,000 ### 170,000
Nov-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18
Feb-18 189,600 ###
Mar-18 186,000 ###
Apr-18 184,800 ### demanda y alisado exponencial
May-18 194,400 ### 200,000
Jun-18 196,800 ###
Jul-18 190,800 ### 195,000

Aug-18 191,200 ### 190,000

Sep-18 ?
185,000
Oct-18 ?
Nov-18 ? 180,000
Dec-18 ?
175,000
Jan-19 ?
170,000
Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18

dt St = a dt + (1-a) St-1
 t dt St = a dt + (1-a) St-1 Error
1 Jan-17 193,200 193,200
2 Feb-17 198,000 193,200 4,800
3 Mar-17 189,600 193,523 - 3,923
4 Apr-17 189,600 193,259 - 3,659
5 May-17 196,800 193,013 3,787
6 Jun-17 182,400 193,268 - 10,868
7 Jul-17 183,600 192,536 - 8,936
8 Aug-17 186,000 191,934 - 5,934
9 Sep-17 195,600 191,534 4,066
10 Oct-17 190,800 191,808 - 1,008
11 Nov-17 195,600 191,740 3,860
12 Dec-17 192,000 192,000 0
13 Jan-18 192,000 192,000 0
18 Jul-18 Oct-18
14 Feb-18 189,600 192,000 - 2,400
15 Mar-18 186,000 191,838 - 5,838
al 16 Apr-18 184,800 191,445 - 6,645
17 May-18 194,400 190,997 3,403
18 Jun-18 196,800 191,227 5,573
19 Jul-18 190,800 191,602 - 802
20 Aug-18 191,200 191,548 - 348
21 Sep-18 191,525 191,525 α
22 Oct-18 191,525 191,503 MASE
23 Nov-18 X RMSE
24 Dec-18 X
25 Jan-19 X

Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18

Error Abs Error ^2

4,800 23,040,000
3,923 15,392,639
3,659 13,388,681
3,787 14,344,645
10,868 118,106,960
8,936 79,845,214
5,934 35,208,554
4,066 16,532,636
1,008 1,015,799
3,860 14,899,795
0 0
0 0
2,400 5,760,000
5,838 34,086,065
6,645 44,156,510
3,403 11,577,667
5,573 31,062,631
802 643,296
348 121,123
0.06736360946
3,947.23
4,922.41
 Venta
Mes coches Venta coches
26000
Jan-17 13000
Feb-17 16000 24000
Mar-17 17000 22000
Apr-17 15900 20000
May-17 16300
18000
Jun-17 15100
Jul-17 16700 16000

Aug-17 14500 14000

Sep-17 17700 12000
Oct-17 15700
10000
Nov-17 21000 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18
Dec-17 16800
Jan-18 21800 venta de coches y previsión de ventas alisado doble
Feb-18 16300
30,000
Mar-18 23100
Apr-18 22600 25,000
May-18 16800 20,000
Jun-18 16700
Jul-18 15,000
23400
Aug-18 18600 10,000
Sep-18 15800
5,000
Oct-18 25300
-
Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18

Demanda Pronóstico (d´t)

 Prom.
Prom. Tendencia Pronóstico (d
T Semana Demanda Suavizado (St) (Bt) ´t) Error
1 Jan-17 13,000 13,000 350
2 Feb-17 16,000 14,225 388 13,350 2650.00
3 Mar-17 17,000 15,400 422 14,613 2387.00
4 Apr-17 15,900 15,848 423 15,823 77.00
5 May-17 16,300 16,281 424 16,272 28.00
6 Jun-17 15,100 16,175 401 16,705 -1605.00
7 Jul-17 16,700 16,617 403 16,576 124.00
8 Aug-17 14,500 16,188 366 17,019 -2519.00
9 Sep-17 17,700 16,932 383 16,554 1146.00
10 Oct-17 15,700 16,782 360 17,315 -1615.00
y-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 11 Nov-17 21,000 18,415 415 17,142 3858.00
12 Dec-17 16,800 18,160 386 18,830 -2030.00
do doble 13 Jan-18 21,800 19,620 433 18,546 3254.00
14 Feb-18 16,300 18,814 379 20,052 -3752.00
15 Mar-18 23,100 20,482 435 19,193 3907.00
16 Apr-18 22,600 21,472 459 20,917 1683.00
17 May-18 16,800 20,238 385 21,931 -5131.00
18 Jun-18 16,700 19,329 329 20,623 -3923.00
19 Jul-18 23,400 20,893 383 19,658 3742.00
20 Aug-18 18,600 20,393 344 21,275 -2675.00
21 Sep-18 15,800 19,108 274 20,737 -4937.00
22 Oct-18 25,300 21,334 358 19,381 5919.00
23 Nov-18 21,693 S(t)=alfa*d(t)+(1-alfa)*(S(t-1)+
y-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 B(t)=beta(S(t)- S(t-1))+(1-beta)
24 22,051 ALFA 0.33
25 Jan-19 22,410 BETA 0.04 d´(t) = S(tn) +B(tn)*(t-tn)
26 Feb-19 13,091

MASE 2,712.48
RMSE 3,159.55
 Error Abs Error ^2

2650.00 7022500.00
2387.00 5697769.00
77.00 5929.00
28.00 784.00
1605.00 2576025.00
124.00 15376.00
2519.00 6345361.00
1146.00 1313316.00
1615.00 2608225.00
3858.00 14884164.00
2030.00 4120900.00
3254.00 10588516.00
3752.00 14077504.00
3907.00 15264649.00
1683.00 2832489.00
5131.00 26327161.00
3923.00 15389929.00
3742.00 14002564.00
2675.00 7155625.00
4937.00 24373969.00
5919.00 35034561.00
)=alfa*d(t)+(1-alfa)*(S(t-1)+B(t-1))
t)=beta(S(t)- S(t-1))+(1-beta)(B(t-1))
t) = S(tn) +B(tn)*(t-tn)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ikX9g8fUbvr8iI_5ABsMPuKUS7rq9-HcNP5GnL3siio/edit#gid=943378363

Venta coches
Trimestre (miles)
Venta coches (miles)
Q1 2015 60 320

Q2 2015 234
270
Q3 2015 163
Q4 2015 50 220
Q1 2016 69
Q2 2016 266 170

Q3 2016 188
120
Q4 2016 59
Q1 2017 84 70

Q2 2017 310
20
Q3 2017 212 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q3
2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2018
Q3 2018 64
3siio/edit#gid=943378363
ALFA 0 L= 4
BETA 0.1979 S0 = 125.29
0.6555 B0 = 3.28
es) GAMMA

T
Semana
1 Q1 2015
2 Q2 2015
3 Q3 2015
4 Q4 2015

Q1 2016
5
6 Q2 2016
7 Q3 2016
Promedio suavizado (St) = a [dt /Ct-L]+ (1-a) (St-1 + Bt 8 Q4 2016
4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q3
Bt = b (St - St-1) + (1-b) Bt-1 9 Q1 2017
16 2017 2017 2017 2018
Ct = g [dt/St] + (1 - g) Ct-L 10 Q2 2017
d't=(St+Bt)*Ct 11 Q3 2017
|et|=((St*Bt)*Ct) - (dt) 12 Q4 2017
Pronóstico =( $Stn$ + $Btn$ *(t-$tn$)) * Ct-L 13 Q1 2018
14 Q2 2018
15 Q3 2018
16 Q4 2018
 C [-3] = 0.423
C [-2] = 1.671
C [-1] = 1.155

C [0] = 0.352

Prom. Suavizado Factor

Demanda (St) Prom. Tendencia (Bt) Estacional (Ct) Pronóstico (d´t) Error
60 128.56 3.27622 0.45157 59.53566 0.46434
234 131.84 3.27622 1.73896 234.96180 -0.96180
163 135.12 3.27622 1.18874 164.51324 -1.51324
50 138.39 3.27622 0.35819 50.74494 -0.74494

69 3.27622 0.47483 68.82443 0.17557

141.67
266 144.95 3.27622 1.80203 267.09989 -1.09989
188 148.22 3.27622 1.24094 188.00000 0.00000
59 151.50 3.27622 0.37868 58.60982 0.39018
84 154.77 3.27622 0.51934 82.08173 1.91827
310 158.05 3.27622 1.90651 307.56983 2.43017
212 161.33 3.27622 1.28891 212.15708 -0.15708
64 164.60 3.27622 0.38532 64.68777 -0.68777
87.19
326.31
224.83 MASE 0.88
68.47 RMSE 1.14
Error Abs Error ^2
0.46434 0.21561
0.96180 0.92505
1.51324 2.28990
0.74494 0.55494

0.17557 0.03082

1.09989 1.20977
0.00000 0.00000
0.39018 0.15224
1.91827 3.67977
2.43017 5.90573
0.15708 0.02467
0.68777 0.47303