Article on Scottish Independence

It’s more than likely that the British state will fracture in the coming decade. In Scotland
support for independence is at its highest ever level. Yes and No are finely balanced with
the momentum on the Yes side. Since the early part of 2020, Yes has maintained a
consistent lead in the polls. Support is highest among younger voters with a summer 2020
poll indicating that 72% of under 35’s would vote for independence in a new referendum.
Support for Welsh independence grew rapidly in 2020. The 32% in favour in August was the
highest ever recorded; and here too support is skewed towards younger people. And one
outcome of Johnson’s Brexit deal is a customs border between the UK and Northern Ireland
in order to facilitate cross border trade on the island of Ireland.

The breakup of the British state poses important questions for socialists across the UK and
in Ireland. In this article we focus on Scotland. We look at what has changed since the 2014
referendum and argue that in a time of pandemic and recession, and in the face of the
existential environmental crisis, developing socialist politics that engages with the material
reality of Scotland in 2021 is vital. A radical agenda is not simply desirable, it’s necessary as
part of a campaign that can win, and essential for constructing a sustainable economy
capable of meeting the needs of the working class.

The political situation in Scotland has changed in a number of important ways since the
heady days of September 2014 and indyref 1. The final three or four months of the 2014
referendum campaign were characterised by a surge of optimism, high levels of
mobilisation and mass registration of new voters. On the left, the Radical Independence
Campaign (RIC) united a diverse group of activists around five broad socialist and
environmental demands, but the radicalism and activism went well beyond RIC into local
Yes groups in every part of Scotland. After the referendum, attempts to build a new left
party from the ranks of RIC foundered. Large numbers of RIC activists and Yes group
campaigners flooded into the Scottish National Party (SNP), transforming it into a party with
a mass working class base. SNP membership peaked at around 125,000 and seven years on
membership remains high.

The rise of the SNP paralleled the steep decline of Scottish Labour – indeed the map of SNP
Holyrood and Westminster seats covers the areas that were once Labour strongholds. At
local level the SNP took control of local authorities in the larger towns and cities where
Labour had held sway for decades. Many Yes voters were already unhappy with Labour’s
dismal role in administering austerity at a local level, Blair, support for Trident and military
interventions in the Middle East. The alliance with the Tories in the referendum was the last
straw. This alienation from Labour meant that the Corbyn phenomenon in Scotland was a
pale shadow of elsewhere, and, with the exception of a small minority of mainly younger
Labour members, there is no evidence that Scottish Labour have learnt the lessons of the
last decade. As a result, they stand at around 12% in the opinion polls and have been
replaced as the main opposition to the SNP by the Tories.

However, it’s no longer just Labour that has internal divisions. Until recently the SNP
presented itself to the world as united and confident with a leadership that was sure footed
and popular with the electorate. While still retaining much of that popularity, it is now
deeply divided. There are two factions, one around the current leadership under Sturgeon
and the other around former leader Alex Salmond. The Sturgeon camp presents itself as
socially progressive, however, with the exception of a small number of low-cost initiatives
(for example introducing free sanitary products) there is a big gap between progressive
rhetoric and policy implementation. On the economy they are risk averse and market
oriented. And on independence they appear to have no plan other than pressuring
Westminster to grant another referendum. Salmond’s camp has attracted some of those
impatient with Sturgeons approach to independence, but many of its’ leading supporters
assert that the women civil servants and party members who accuse him of sexual
harassment are simply part of a plot. Defence of Salmond often takes the form of
misogynistic abuse of the women that dared to expose his behaviour. Many of his
supporters also line up against the official SNP position on gender recognition. This
reactionary social politics is prominent on social media but is not generally characteristic of
the SNP’s mass membership. The 2020 SNP conference, held in November, saw the SNP
leadership lose its dominant grip on several of the key party committees to candidates from,
or supported by, the grass roots Common Weal Group. This represents a real gain for the
left in the party although one that is complicated by the range of positions among CWG
members which don’t simply align with the two leadership factions. In truth the factional
split represents a struggle for power in a highly centralised organisation with a mass base
that is often to the left of the leadership.

What of the independence movement more broadly? The RIC activist base declined rapidly
after the referendum with only a handful of local groups surviving to the present day. An
attempted relaunch in October 2019 attracted seven hundred activists but failed to reboot
the campaign or develop a new strategy for building a left pole of attraction in the
independence movement. In contrast, ‘All Under One Banner’, formed in October 2014
developed a mass working class following during 2018 and into 2019, with tens of
thousands joining marches in towns and cities around Scotland. Covid put a stop the
marches. Following a conference at the end of 2020 All Under One Banner have relaunched
as a membership organisation, ‘Yes Alba’, and plans to resume the programme of marches
from April 2021.

The rapid growth in support for independence during the 2014 referendum campaign
reflected a sense of hope and optimism. The renewed rise in support stems from the failure
of Corbynism and Scottish Labour, a consensus that the SNP are more competent managers
than the Tories in London, from Sturgeon drawing greater support from business and a
widespread loathing of Boris Johnson that has been reinforced by his handling of the
pandemic. However, while support for independence has risen the SNP have become more
conservative in their approach. Despite opposition in the party, they have doubled down on
the economic plan for independence laid out in the Growth Commission report. Headed ‘a
strategy for inter-generational economic renaissance’ the report argues for a highly
orthodox neo-liberal strategy, reducing debt through a decade of austerity and retaining
Sterling. Keeping the pound as the currency would mean that an independent Scotland
would have no fiscal autonomy, with the Bank of England being guarantor and adjudicator
for any reforms. Sterlingisation is also a barrier to the SNP leadership’s desire to join the EU.
An independent currency is a prerequisite for membership, so the proposal which predates
Brexit is muddle headed in its own terms.
The Common Weal think (and do) tank has done good work on a future Scottish economy
including important reports on housing, transport and ‘Our Common Home’ – the case for a
Scottish Green New Deal. Undoubtedly a reforming Scottish government could implement
these proposals post-independence. However, the SNP is on an entirely different
trajectory. The Growth Commission is a manifesto for the neo-liberal status quo. And from
that perspective its prescription for the Scottish economy rests on hard-nosed analysis of
where Scotland sits in the world. The Scottish economy shares many of the weaknesses of
the UK economy as a whole. Services represent 75% of GDP, production 18%, construction
6% and agriculture 1%. These are crude divisions and require sub-division down to a greater
level of detail. For, instance ‘production’ covers everything including North Sea oil and gas
extraction, textiles, engineering manufacture, pharmaceuticals, aerospace etc. Also,
‘services’ includes financial services as well as the full range of public services, hotels and
leisure and education. Financial services and North Sea oil and gas extraction- both
perceived to be the cornerstones of a future booming Scots economy, are now in steep
decline; Finance now rapidly out-migrating to Leeds and North Sea oil and gas caught in the
merciless pincers of a global crashing oil price- or at least stabilising at around a price of $40
per barrel- a global economic recession, a Covid-19 led decline in demand and a rapidly
growing recognition that tackling the climate crisis means leaving the oil in the ground. In
addition, the pandemic has a had a devastating impact on the tourism sector which has
been seen by the Scottish Government and many local authorities as one of the most
dynamic parts of the Scottish economy.

Nevertheless, in principle Scotland is well placed to make a rapid transition to a more

sustainable economy. There is an abundance of sustainable energy sources, and a relatively
large pool of workers with skills that could be applied to building the infrastructure and new
productive capacity that is required. However, Scottish government policy is predicated on
the idea that the transition can be driven by market forces. The record is abysmal.
Employment in renewables has shrunk. Major manufacturing facilities like BiFab have gone
to the wall and continued operation at the world leading bus manufacturer Alexander
Dennis is under threat. The latest iteration of Holyrood’s climate action plan make almost
no mention of oil and gas. A continuing commitment to maximum economic recovery of
hydrocarbons from the North Sea means that the interests of the industry are put first –
witness a refusal to act on the highly polluting Mossmorran gas plant and continuing
subsidies to INEOS.

While support for independence rises the Tories are taking a hard line that there will be no
more referendums for a generation. So, it’s clear that there will be no simple rerun of
2014. Circumstances have shifted in a radical way and we’d argue that there needs to be a
correspondingly radical shift in campaigning. In 2014 socialists argued that the national
question intersected with the long-term decline of British Imperialism and the more recent
ravages of neo-liberalism. This remains the case, but the context of the struggle for
independence is now also shaped by the current pandemic, recession, mass unemployment
a rapidly deepening climate crisis and an economy that is weak when viewed in orthodox
competitive capitalist terms. We would argue that this makes a radical shift not just
desirable, but necessary if independence is to deliver for the mass of working people in
Scotland. However, the SNP leadership are currently moving in the opposite direction which
makes the need for developing and winning the case for a radical alternative even greater.
The argument that these issues can be dealt with once independence is achieved is a
dangerous one. It makes it harder to win the hearts and minds of working-class people who
are either unconvinced or not fully convinced of the case for independence. It fails to reach
out to the large number of young people who are pro-independence and also most involved
in climate activism, Black Lives Matter and campaigns like Living Rent. And it hands the
political direction of the campaign to those like the authors of the Growth Commission
report who want to preserve existing relations of power and privilege in an independent
Scotland.

Across the UK socialists face the urgent task of rebuilding working class political organisation
that is able to push and ultimately break the power of the bosses. The task is not new, the
conjunction of circumstances is. In Scotland right now that means learning to organise,
agitate and educate across the multiple crises of the British State, pandemic, climate,
poverty and unemployment and understanding that building working class power and unity
requires consistent opposition to all forms of oppression. Making this happen will require a
flourishing of debate and discussion.

Debate needs to be informed by practice. It’s vitally necessary that socialists engage
seriously with existing campaigns. ‘Yes Alba’ is important in this regard. It’s newly elected
steering group reflects some of the deep divisions on the pro-independence left, but it
inherits the momentum of a mass movement on the streets. Whether it can transcend the
divisions and develop a strategy that builds on its mass base to exert pressure through
mobilisation and direct action is an open question – but socialists should not stand aside.

However, a serious perspective for socialists needs to go beyond reacting to what exists.
We need to think seriously about what a radical left current in the independence movement
should look like. There are positive lessons from Catalonia where the involvement of new
layers of young people, school strike activists and other new activists has been significant.
In the same way in Scotland new pro-independence left that has the power to influence
events will need to include the climate activists and BLM organisers who have been so
inspirational in 2019 and 2020. At the same time, we have to rebuild working class
organisation at a unique moment in our history. High levels of homeworking, mass
unemployment and significant levels of long-term ill health make the need for action
imperative. However, they also pose barriers to many old models of organisation. We can
learn from history, for example the struggles of the unemployed for outdoor relief in Belfast
in 1932 – we can also learn from contemporary local and international struggles. To be
effective will require an open and non-sectarian approach to organisation and rethinking
the relationships between party, class and movement. Given how much has changed, just
recharging the Radical Independence Campaign as it was is not an option, however, finding
an organisational form for a united radical left voice on independence and working through
the basis on which such a RIC.2 could be built should be a priority.