CBOD

 PETROELUM  MARKET  UPDATE  

Crude  

Crude  prices  dropped  to  a  12-­‐year  low  at  $27.67  on  the  ICE  Brent  market  which  continued  to  see  high  
volatility   on   the   back   of   a   supply   glut   and   waning   global   demand   amidst   faltering   global   economic  
growth.  This  was  mainly  due  to  Iran’s  return  to  the  international  oil  market  with  a  promise  to  increase  
oil  shipments  by  500,000  barrels  per  day,  after  international  sanctions  were  lifted.  

According   to   the   International   Energy   Agency,   Iran   is   expected   to   be   able   to   ramp   up   production   to   pre-­‐
sanction  levels  at  3.6  million  barrels  per  day  within  six  months.  This  prospect  continues  to  pose  a  bearish  
outlook  on  crude  prices.  

Refined  Products  Window  Review    

The  average  world  market  price  for  the  December  27  to  January  11  pricing  window  (used  to  set  prices  
for  sales  between  the  16th  and  31st  of  January)  dropped  by  3.95%,  0.83%  and  5.19%  for  Gasoil,  Gasoline  
and  LPG  respectively  as  compared  to  the  previous  pricing  window.    

With  just  half-­‐way  through  the  12th-­‐  26th  January  pricing  window,  which  is  used  to  set  pump  prices  for  
the  first  half  of  February  in  Ghana,  prices  have  already  recorded  a  further  fall  of  about  12.7%,  10.5%  and  
15.54%  for  Gasoil,  Gasoline  and  LPG  respectively  on  the  world  market.  

The   fall   in   prices   was   occasioned   by   a   surge   in   demand   for   winter-­‐grade   products   and   less   interest   in  
summer-­‐grade  products  which  are  consumed  in  West  Africa.    

CBOD  XPi  Review  

PRICE  COMPONENT   PMS   AGO   LPG  

Average  World  Market  Price  (USD/MT)   415.47   305.33   317.56  
FuFeX  (GHS/USD)   4.0927   4.0927   4.0927  
XPi  (Ghp/Ltr)   160.88   144.39   187.27  
XPi  Percentage  Change   1.08%   -­‐1.23%   0.99%  
 

The  marginal  fall  in  refined  products  prices  was  not  transferred  entirely  to  XPi  prices  due  to  
the  depreciation  of  the  GHS  to  the  USD,  which  saw  the  FuFex  60  day  forward  rate  used  in  
the  previous  window’s  XPi  rise  from  4.0227  to  4.0927  in  this  current  window.    

 
Price  Trend  July  2015  –  February  2016  

AVERAGE  WORLD  MARKET  PRICE  TREND  (  JULY  2015-­‐  Feb.  2016)  

800.00  
750.00  
700.00  
650.00  
600.00  
550.00  
500.00  
US$/MT  

450.00  
400.00   Gasoil  
350.00   Gasoline  
300.00  
250.00   LPG  
200.00  
150.00  
100.00  
50.00  
0.00  
1-­‐15  July   16-­‐31  August   1-­‐15  October     16-­‐30   1-­‐15  January  
November   2016  
 
 

Note:  

• The  XPi    
The   XPi   is   an   estimate   of   the   EX   refinery   price   at   which   BDCs   may   sell   petroleum  
products   to   oil   marketing   companies.   It   is   based   on   the   maximum   allowable   US   dollar  
indexed   price   BDCs   would   have   sold   petroleum   products   under   the   immediate   past  
regulated  regime,  and  converted  in  Ghana  Cedis  at  a  referenced  foreign  exchange  rate  
FuFeX.      
 
•  FuFeX    
The   FuFeX   is   an   average   of   the   quoted   indicative   forward   forex   rates   from   major   oil  
financing  banks.