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To cite this article: Gary P. Brinson, L. Randolph Hood & Gilbert L. Beebower (1986)
Determinants of Portfolio Performance, Financial Analysts Journal, 42:4, 39-44, DOI: 10.2469/
faj.v42.n4.39
Article views: 8
of Portfolio
Determinants
Performance
In order to delineateinvestmentresponsibilityand measureperformance contribution,
pension plan sponsorsand investmentmanagersneed a clear and relevantmethodof
attributingreturnsto thoseactivitiesthat composethe investmentmanagementprocess-
investmentpolicy, markettiming and securityselection.The authorsprovidea simple
frameworkbasedon a passive,benchmark portfoliorepresentingthe plan'slong-termasset
classes, weightedby their long-termallocations.Returnson this "investmentpolicy"
portfolioarecomparedwith theactualreturnsresultingfromthecombination of investment
policy plus markettiming (over or underweightingasset classes relative to the plan
benchmark) and securityselection(activeselectionwithinan asset class).
Datafrom91 largeU.S. pensionplansoverthe1974-83 periodindicatethatinvestment
policydominatesinvestmentstrategy(markettimingand securityselection),explainingon
average93.6 per cent of the variationin totalplan return.Theactualmeanaveragetotal
returnon the portfolioover the periodwas 9.01 per cent, versus 10.11 per cent for the
benchmarkportfolio.Active managementcost the averageplan 1.10 per cent per year,
althoughits effectson individualplansvariedgreatly,addingas muchas 3.69 percentper
year. Althoughinvestmentstrategycan resultin significantreturns,theseare dwarfedby
the returncontributionfrom investmentpolicy-the selectionof asset classesand their
normalweights.
strategy. Investment strategy is shown to be over the 10-year period. The market capitaliza-
composed of timing, security (or manager) se- tion of individual plans in the universe ranges
lection, and the effects of a cross-productterm. from approximately $100 million at the begin-
We can calculate the exact effects of policy and ning of the study period to well over $3 billion
strategy using the algebraicmeasures given. by its end.
Table IV summarizes the data collected from
Data each plan. Normal weights for each asset class
To test the framework, we used data from 91 for each plan were not available. We thus as-
pension plans in the SEI Large Plan Universe. sumed that the 10-yearmean average holding of
SEIhas developed quarterlydata for a complete each asset class was sufficient to approximate
10-year (40-quarter)period beginning in 1974; the appropriatenormal holding.6 Portfolio seg-
this was chosen as the beginning of the period ments consisted of common stocks, marketable
for study. bonds (fixed income debt with a maturity of at
In order to be selected, a plan had to satisfy least one year, and excluding private place-
several criteria. Each plan had to have been a ments and mortgage-backed securities), cash
corporatepension trust with investment discre- equivalents (fixed income obligations with ma-
tion solely in the hands of the corporationitself turities less than one year) and a miscellaneous
(i.e., no employee-designated funds). Large category, "other," including convertible securi-
plans were used because only those plans had ties, internationalholdings, real estate, venture
sufficient return and investment weight infor- capital, insurance contracts, mortgage-backed
mation to satisfy our computationalneeds. Pub- bonds and private placements.
lic and multi-employer plans were excluded, Because a complete history of the contents of
because legislative, legal or other constraints the "other" component is not available for
could have dramatically altered their asset many plans, we elected to exclude this segment
mixes from what might have obtained. from most of the analysis. We instead calculated
The sample represents a major portion of the a common stock/bonds/cashequivalent subport-
large corporate pension plans of SEI's clients folio for use in all quandrants exceptthe total
Standard
All Holdings Average Minimum Maximum Deviation PolicyBenchmark
Common Stock 57.5% 32.3% 86.5% 10.9% S&P500 Total Return
Index (S&P500)
Bonds 21.4 0.0 43.0 9.0 ShearsonLehman
Government/Corporate
Bond Index (SLGC)
Cash Equivalents 12.4 1.8 33.1 5.0 30-DayTreasuryBills
Other 8.6 0.0 53.5 8.3 None
100.0%
Stocks,Bondsand CashOnly
Common Stock 62.9% 37.9% 89.3% 10.6%
Bonds 23.4 0.0 51.3 9.4
Cash Equivalents 13.6 2.0 35.0 5.2
100.0%
. Results
~~(III) (I)
To analyze the relative importance of invest-
9.75% 10.11%
ment policy versus investment strategy, we
began by calculatingthe total returns for each of
our 91 portfolios. Table V repeats the frame-
work outlined in Table I and provides a mean of
Active ReturnsDue to:
91 annualized compound total 10-year rates of
Timing -0.66% return for each quadrant.
SecuritySelection -0.36 The mean average annualized total return
Other - 0.07
Total Active Return - 1.10% over the 10-yearperiod (QuadrantIV) was 9.01
per cent. This is the return to the entire plan
portfolio, not just the common stock/bonds/cash
equivalents portion of the plan.8 The average
plan lost 66 basis points per year in market
fund actual return; here we used the actual timing and lost another 36 basis points per year
return as reported (including "other").We con- from security selection. The mean average an-
structed the subportfolio by eliminating the nualized total return for the normal plan policy
"other" investment weight from each plan in (passive index returns and average weighting)
each quarter and calculating new weights and for the sample was 10.11 per cent (QuadrantI).
portfolio returns for the components that re- Table VI provides more detail on the various
mained; this had the effect of spreading the effects of active management and investment
"other" weight proportionally across the re- policy at work. The effect of market timing on
maining asset classes. The bottom panel of the compound annual returnof individual plans
Table IV gives the weighting information. ranged from + 0.25 to -2.68 per cent per year
TableIV also gives the marketindexes used as over the period. The effect of security selection
passive benchmark returns.7 For common ranged from + 3.60 to -2.90 per cent per year.
stocks, we used the S&P 500 composite index On average, total active management cost the
total return. The S&P comes under frequent average plan 1.10 per cent per year. Its effects
attack for not being representative of the U.S. on individual plans varied, however, from a low
equity market; we nevertheless selected it, for of -4.17 per cent per year to a high of + 3.69
several reasons. First, the S&P is still quoted per cent per year-a range of 7.86 per cent.
and used as a benchmark by many plan spon- Active management (and therefore its con-
sors; this indicates its continued acceptance. trol)is clearlyimportant. But how importantis it
Second, it is one of the few indexes known over relative to investment policy itself? The relative
the entire study period, and actually available magnitudes indicate that investment policy pro-
for investment by plan sponsors via, for exam- vides the larger portion of return. This is not
ple, index funds. Third, the S&P 500 does not surprising in itself, and most would not dis-
sufferfrom the lack of liquidity that affectssome agree that the "value added" from active man-
segments of the broader market indexes. For agement is small (though important) relative to
completeness, however, we recomputed all the asset class returns as a whole. However, what
calculations performed below using the Wil- does this imply? It implies that it is the normal
shire 5000 CapitalizationWeighted TotalReturn asset class weights and the passive asset classes
Portfolio Total Returns Average Return Minimum Return Maximum Return Standard Deviation
Policy 10.11% 9.47% 10.57% 0.22%
Policy and Timing 9.44 7.25 10.34 0.52
Policy and Selection 9.75 7.17 13.31 1.33
Actual Portfolio 9.01 5.85 13.40 1.43
Active Returns
Timing Only -0.66% -2.68% 0.25% 0.49%
SecuritySelection Only -0.36 -2.90 3.60 1.36
Other -0.07 -1.17 2.57 0.45
TotalActive Return -1.10% -4.17%* 3.69%* 1.45%*
* Not additive.