Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Bharti Airtel Motilal Report
Bharti Airtel Motilal Report
Bharti Airtel
BSE SENSEX S&P CNX
28,441 8,281
CMP: INR 429 TP: INR 620(+44% ) Buy
Still a lot of juice left!
Incremental ARPU growth opportunity not captured
Currently, the Bharti Airtel (BHARTI) stock is down ~20% from its peak due to
the Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak and the consequent complete lockdown
Bloomberg BHARTI IN in India.
Equity Shares (m) 5,455 Additionally, both BHARTI and Vodafone-Idea (VIL) are facing the ire of the
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 2351.6 / 32.5 Supreme Court (SC), which recently dismissed their plea toward self-
52-Week Range (INR) 569 / 305
assessment of AGR liabilities.
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 8/43/67
We see limited impact of COVID-19, currency and crude price swings on the
12M Avg Val (INR M) 5456
Free float (%) 41.0 BHARTI stock and believe that it is the best hedged to face regulatory woes.
Through this report, we look at how BHARTI is placed in the current tough
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
environment and the key catalysts at hand for it to deliver.
Y/E March FY20E FY21E FY22E
Sales 871.9 1,018.2 1,111.8 COVID-19 to have limited impact on earnings
EBITDA 365.8 457.5 508.4
Given the complete lockdown in India due to COVID-19, net subscriber adds
Adj. PAT 3.6 21.2 27.2
EBIT Margin (%) 42.0 44.9 45.7 (average 2-3 months) have stalled thus impacted by 1-2%. With physical
Adj. EPS (INR) 0.7 3.9 5.0 recharges being unavailable, there has been a shift to digital recharges (from
EPS Gr. (%) -107.7 479.7 28.5
15% in the last 1-2 years to 35-40% currently). In the current environment,
BV/Sh. (INR) 161.0 164.9 169.9
Ratios more tech-savvy data subscribers with higher ARPUs and longer-term
Net D:E 1.2 1.0 0.8 recharges of 90 days may see lower impact. However, the rest of feature
RoE (%) 0.5 2.4 3.0 phone subscribers doing monthly recharges (one-third the ARPU of data
RoCE (%) 3.1 4.3 5.1
Payout (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 subscribers), could see some marginal impact as to protect these low income
Valuations subscribers (80m), BHARTI has extended free incoming calls until 17th Apr’20
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.6 7.3 6.2 with additional INR10 talk-time. This could impact 1QFY21 revenue/EBITDA
P/E (x) 641.1 110.6 86.1
P/BV (x) 2.7 2.6 2.5
by INR2.2b/INR1.8b i.e. equivalent to meager 1-2%. Against this, increased
Div. Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 data consumption should see upgrades in recharge values, thus, mitigating
FCF Yield (%) -9.1 9.3 9.6 the impact. In 4QFY20/1QFY21, we currently estimate 13%/19% revenue
Shareholding pattern (%)
growth on QoQ basis.
As On Dec-19 Sep-19 Dec-18 Currency and crude fluctuation impact much lower
Promoter 62.7 62.7 67.1 The recent sharp INR depreciation should increase BHARTI’s USD capex/debt
DII 14.1 13.2 13.9
and put some of its African business under stress due to its high crude
FII 16.5 22.4 17.2
Others 6.7 1.7 1.8 exports. However, we do not expect a meaningful impact. The USD
FII Includes depository receipts denominated India capex is ~30%, thus, 10% INR depreciation could have ~3%
increase. Similarly, ~28% of BHARTI’s debt is USD denominated while India
Stock Performance (1-year) debt is 15%. The sharp reduction in crude prices could result in revenue
softness in the short term, particularly in Nigeria, Congo and Chad. However,
BHARTI’s FCF positive position and lower leverage should have limited impact.
Expect strong ARPU increase or market share gains
We believe that BHARTI remains in a win-win situation, irrespective of the
SC’s outcome on VIL’s fortunes. The government has been pitching for a
healthy telecom market (3 private and 1 PSU player), which accentuates the
need for VIL to stay afloat. However, VIL’s survival will require a sharp ARPU
increase (potentially >30%) along with moratorium of payments to service its
regulatory and debt obligations, which could also benefit BHARTI. Further,
Research Analyst: Aliasgar Shakir(Aliasgar.Shakir@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 6129 1565
Suhel Shaikh (Suhel.Ahmad@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 5036 2611; Anshul Aggarwal (Anshul.Aggarwal@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 5036 2511
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
3 September 2019 1
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Bharti Airtel
30 March 2020 2
Bharti Airtel
30 March 2020 3
Bharti Airtel
18.5
18.5
18.4
18.3
18.2
17.7
17.5
17.3
16.9
16.4
14.3
14.1
13.6
12.9
12.2
4QFY15
2QFY20
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
3QFY20
30 March 2020 4
Bharti Airtel
gain 80% of VIL’s low-ARPU feature phone subscribers as shifting to RJio would
require customers to buy Jiophone, which may not be feasible for them. We expect
postpaid and non-bundle high-ARPU customers to be split equally between both
BHARTI/RJio while broadband customers should be split in a 40:60 ratio, which
should provide them with incremental revenues of INR228b/INR245b, equivalent to
20%/26% jump from our current FY22 estimates.
Exhibit 5: VIL customers transition to BHARTI/RJio – customer split at ~60%/40% while revenue split is equal
VIL subscribers
304m
Bharti/VIL
subscribers
283m/304m
30 March 2020 5
Bharti Airtel
Exhibit 8: BHARTI/RJio’s EBITDA to reach INR547b/INR671b Exhibit 9: BHARTI and RJio gain in EBITDA/share
EBITDA Pre-VIL acquisition EBITDA Post-VIL Acquisition 25
671
18
547 521
447
30 March 2020 6
Bharti Airtel
Exhibit 11: BHARTI/RJio’s EBITDA to reach INR572b/INR646b Exhibit 12: BHARTI and RJio gain in EBITDA/share
EBITDA Pre-VIL acquisition EBITDA Post-VIL Acquisition
23
646
572
521
447
21
Exhibit 13: Network cost increase minimal (if VIL dissolves) Exhibit 14: Capex to grow capacity ~1% of EV (if VIL dissolves)
(Amount in INR m) Min impact Max impact (Amount in INR m)
Cost/tower 2,000 3,000 Incremental towers (000's) 25
Towers 0.15 0.19 Cost/tower 2
Annual incremental cost 3,600 6,840 Total cost 50,000
Network cost 1,51,231 1,51,231 Market cap (INR b) 28,72,388
Increase in cost (%) 2.4% 4.5% Debt (INR b) 8,47,664
EBITDA in FY22E 5,91,000 5,91,000 EV (INR b) 37,20,052
Impact on consol EBITDA 0.6% 1.2% Impact (%) 1.3%
Source: MOFSL, Company Source: MOFSL, Company
30 March 2020 7
Bharti Airtel
However, with ARPU increase becoming a reality, BHARTI’s management has started
focusing on RoCE. Recently, BHARTI’s Managing Director, Mr. Gopal Vittal said,
“Bharti’s RoCE would be just head above water at an ARPU of INR200.” Going
forward, the company should see benefit of (a) improving earnings due to an
increase in ARPU, and (b) the capex cycle passing its peak. Our workings indicate
that with a further ARPU increase of 39% to keep VIL alive, BHARTI’s EBITDA of
INR621b would fetch RoCE of 19% on a pre-tax basis. This could be a key valuation
trigger as the company would start garnering a reasonable RoCE. Further, at
INR621b EBITDA level and coupled with stable capex and falling interest cost, FCF
generation could be ~INR300b with a yield of 10-11% even at current valuation. This
again should be a strong positive for the company, which had negative FCF of
INR220b in FY19 and just reached FCF breakeven in FY20.
Exhibit 16: BHARTI – Healthy gains over 2002-08, 2008-19 remained a drag, 2020 has started to reap price hike benefits
Market Cap (NR b) RoCE (%) RoE (%) MARKET PARIAH MARKET DARLING
MARKET DARLING
2500 45.0
2000
Africa 30.0
1500 Acquisition
2G rollout
15.0
RCOM Launch
1000
New operators launch 3G 0.0
500 telco operations in 4G rollout: 2012-15
rollout Price Hike
2008-09 Spectrum renewals
0 -15.0
FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
Source: MOFSL, Bloomberg
Exhibit 17: FCF yield has potential to reach 11% in FY22 Exhibit 18: RoCE could reach 19% in FY22
FCF post Interest (INR b) Yield (%) 309/ 44.2 RoCE (%)
11%
4% 6%
2% 2% 1% 0% 1% 19%
-4% -3% 19.0
-9% -10% 118 169 9.5 5.9
34 52 29 -7 -62 3.1 3.8 5.8 6.1 5.3 4.6 3.1 4.3 5.1
-77 26 -2.5
-187 -218
FY11
FY14
FY17
FY09
FY10
FY12
FY13
FY15
FY16
FY18
FY19
FY20E
Potential FY22E
FY21E
FY22E
FY18
Potential FY22E
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY19
FY20E
FY21E
FY22E
30 March 2020 8
Bharti Airtel
Exhibit 20: Potential TP from increase in market share or ARPU hike opportunity
EV/EBITDA (x) 10
EV 620,000
Mkt Cap 520,000
No of Shares 545
TP 910
CMP 525
Upside 73%
Source: MOFSL, Company
30 March 2020 9
Bharti Airtel
30 March 2020 10
Bharti Airtel
Exhibit 22: Effect of foreign currency rates on PBT and Shareholder’s Equity
FY19 FY18
Change in Change in
currency Effect on Effect on % Impact % Impact currency Effect on Effect on % Impact % Impact
figures in INRm
exchange PBT equity on PBT on Equity exchange PBT equity on PBT on Equity
rate rate
US Dollar +5% (10,269) (9,109) 59% -2% +5% (8,823) (8,796) -27% -1%
-5% 10,269 9,109 -59% 2% -5% 8,823 8,796 27% 1%
Euro +5% (2,368) (1,590) 14% 0% +5% 1,712 (1,844) 5% 0%
-5% 2,368 1,590 -14% 0% -5% (1,712) 1,844 -5% 0%
Others +5% (905) - 5% 0% +5% 1 - 0% 0%
-5% 905 - -5% 0% -5% (1) - 0% 0%
**FY19 PBT loss of INR17.3b, negative effect indicates rise in losses Source: MOFSL, Company
**FY18 PBT profit of INR32.7b
Exhibit 23: Foreign currency borrowings in FY19/FY18, additional FCCB (USD b) amended below; FY19 to reflect FY20
borrowings
All figures in INRb FY19 FY18
Weighted Weighted
Currency of Total Floating rate Fixed rate Total Floating rate Fixed rate
average rate of average rate
borrowing borrowings borrowings borrowings borrowings borrowings borrowings
Interest of Interest
INR 9.23% 781.0 202.1 578.9 INR 9.33% 603.5 106.3 497.2
USD 4.66% 347.6 122.4 225.2 USD 5.47% 337.3 58.6 278.7
Euro 3.03% 71.8 13.8 58.0 Euro 3.73% 140.0 - 140.0
CHF 3.00% 24.3 - 24.3 CHF 3.00% 23.8 - 23.8
JPY 0.60% 14.0 14.0 4.3 XAF 6.61% 4.7 - 4.7
XAF 7.40% 4.3 - 6.3 XOF 6.80% 7.0 1.4 5.6
XOF 6.69% 6.3 - 0.1 Others 8.48% to 19% 5.3 2.8 2.5
Others 9.64% to 20.64% 7.9 7.8 0.0
Total in FY19 1,257.1 360.2 897.0 Total in FY18 1,121.7 169.1 952.6
USD** 1.50% 72.0 72.0 0.0
**Additional USD1b FCCB issued in Jan'20, assuming floating rate Source: MOFSL, Company
30 March 2020 11
Bharti Airtel
Key Exhibits
Exhibit 24: Potential to generate INR1.3b revenue in FY22 (INR b, %)
715 769 857 920 963 955 826 808 872 1018 1112 1319
FY15
Potential FY22E
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20E
FY21E
FY22E
Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 25: Large target market, yet untapped Exhibit 26: Smartphone penetration has improved from 14%
to 50%
VLR subs:
981m Feature Phones Smartphones
Data Users:
665 m
Smartphone
users: 400m 263 400
Broadband 83
subs:624m
442 496
Premium 400
subs:
101m
FY13 FY17 FY19
Source: Company, MOFSL Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 27: BHARTI’s active SMS pre-RJio (%) Exhibit 28: BHARTI’s active SMS increase in Dec’19 (%)
6.7
Idea RJio
30 March 2020 12
Bharti Airtel
Jul-19
Jun-19
May-19
Aug-19
Nov-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
-10.0 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
FY18 FY19 FY20
9.3
9.1 5.6
1.9 8.2
8.3 4.1
9.5 8.5 8.4 3.6
7.8
10.0 8.1 7.0
6.9 1.5 7.1 0.5
0.4 0.4 0.2 5.0
1.8 2.5 -0.8 3.1 2.5 2.8
-0.6 1.1 0.1
0.0 -0.5 -1.3 -1.4
Jul-19
Jun-19
Apr-19
May-19
Nov-19
Jan-19
Aug-19
Dec-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Source: MOFSL, TRAI
30 March 2020 13
Bharti Airtel
30 March 2020 14
Bharti Airtel
30 March 2020 15
Bharti Airtel
NOTES
30 March 2020 16
Bharti Airtel
30 March 2020 17
Bharti Airtel
********************************************************************************************************************************
The associates of MOFSL may have:
- financial interest in the subject company
- actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company
- received compensation/other benefits from the subject company in the past 12 months
- other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the
specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even
though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.
- acted as a manager or co-manager of public offering of securities of the subject company in past 12 months
- be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the
company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies)
- received compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months for investment banking / merchant banking / brokerage services or from other than said services.
The associates of MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not
consider demat accounts which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from
clients which are not considered in above disclosures.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the
research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
Terms & Conditions:
This report has been prepared by MOFSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and
may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent
of MOFSL. The report is based on the facts, figures and information that are considered true, correct, reliable and accurate. The intent of this report is not recommendatory in
nature. The information is obtained from publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty,
representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The
report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial
instruments for the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOFSL will not treat recipients as
customers by virtue of their receiving this report.
Disclaimer:
The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or
distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for
informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing
in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances.
The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment
objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this
document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this
document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views
expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options, another derivative products as well as non-investment grade
securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of
the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and
should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make
modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from
time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to
perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a
separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of
information that is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOFSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or
may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on,
directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or
entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law,
regulation or which would subject MOFSL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in
all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.
Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost
revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOFSL or any of its
affiliates or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such
misuse and further agrees to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person
accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 71934200/ 022-71934263;
Website www.motilaloswal.com.CIN no.: L67190MH2005PLC153397.Correspondence Office Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road,
Malad(West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 7188 1000.
Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst:
INH000000412. AMFI: ARN - 146822; Investment Adviser: INA000007100; Insurance Corporate Agent: CA0579;PMS:INP000006712. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company
Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670); PMS and Mutual Funds are offered through MOAMC which is group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Wealth
Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) is offered through MOWML, which is a group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is
a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs,Insurance Products and IPOs.Real Estate is offered through Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt.
Ltd. which is a group company of MOFSL. Private Equity is offered through Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd which is a group company of MOFSL.
Research & Advisory services is backed by proper research. Please read the Risk Disclosure Document prescribed by the Stock Exchanges carefully before investing. There is no
assurance or guarantee of the returns. Investment in securities market is subject to market risk, read all the related documents carefully before investing. Details of Compliance
Officer: Name: Neeraj Agarwal, Email ID: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-71881085.
* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National
Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.
30 March 2020 18