Journal of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development

Vol. 7(1), pp. 941-951, January, 2021. © www.premierpublishers.org, ISSN: 2167-0477

Research Article
Trend analysis of Temperature and Precipitation
Change in Sokoto State, Nigeria
Kasim Ibrahim1, Usman Abdullahi Yarima2*
1, 2*Department
of Agricultural Education, Shehu Shagari College of Education Sokoto, P. M. B. 2129, Birnin Kebbi Road,
Sokoto State, Nigeria
Corresponding Author Email: yarimausman@gmail.com Tel.: +2348069389288;

In sub Saharan Africa, Nigeria is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. In
recent years, there was evidence of rising temperature and rainfall variability in almost every part
of the country. This paper investigated the behavior of annual temperature and rainfall in Sokoto
State, Northwestern Nigeria, over the period from 1970-2015. During this period, there was an
upward trend in both temperature and rainfall. Further analysis detected a structural change in
temperature and rainfall series at the State level and in the three agro ecological Zones of the
State over the period of 1970-2015. The point of climatic shift in the area was detected to occur
in 2003 for temperature, and in 1997, for rainfall. Findings from the Chow test used to confirm
the shift in climate were statistically significant. This result further supports the hunch that the
State witnessed significant changes in climate in recent period. Findings of this Study will have
a significant implication for all sectors of the economy, most importantly, Agriculture which is
the mainstay of the economy.

Keywords: Trend; temperature; precipitation; change; Sokoto State; Nigeria

INTRODUCTION

Evidence of climatic variability in Nigeria has been
manifesting as increase in temperature; variability in
rainfall, rise in sea level and flooding; droughts and
desertification; frequent extreme weather events; decline
in fresh water body resources and loss of biodiversity.
Durations and intensities of rainfall have increased,
producing large runoffs and flooding in many places in
Nigeria. Projection showed that more rainfall is expected
in Southern Nigeria, leading to sea level rise and flooding
and inundation of coastal lands. Northern States are
projected to witness more variability in rainfall and violent
weather events and rise in temperature. Important water
bodies that provide means of livelihood for millions of
Nigerians are fast disappearing (Aaron, 2011; BNRCC
2011; FME 2003; 2012; Hassan et a., 2012; Kalmalkar et
a., 2010; NIMET 2014). Visible evidence of climate change
in northern Nigeria in recent years include displacement of
people by flooding and windstorm, drought, drying up of
Lakes such as the Chad, loss of wetlands, desert
encroachment, reduction in the amount of surface water
as well as loss of flora and fauna. In southern Nigeria
manifestations of climate change are clearly seen as
increased precipitation, sea level rise and coastal erosion
and flooding (Dioha and Emodi 2018; Amanchukwu et a;
2015; Olapido, 2010; Haider 2019; Abdulkadir et a., 2018;
Akande et a., 2012; Ebele and Emodi 2016; Adedeji 2020)
. In Sokoto state, desert encroachment, drying up of lakes
such as the Kalmalo and Toidi lakes, loss fauna and flora,
rising temperature, flooding and unpredictable weather are
clear indications of climate change (Elisha et a., 2017;
Jibrilla et a., 2018; Jibrilla et a., 2019; Ifabiyi 2013).
Projection from these studies showed that like in many
other countries of Africa, the agricultural sector in Nigeria
will also be susceptible to the impact of climate change.
Estimate of damage in Nigeria is projected to reach up to
1.5% to 3% of GDP each year by 2030; it will also lower
crop yield by 5% to 25% by 2050 (Hassan et a., 2012; Bello
et a., 2012). Massive reliance on agriculture by the
citizens, lack of institutional capacity to adapt and the
geographical location of Nigeria makes it more vulnerable
to climate change. In Nigeria, despite the role of petroleum
sector as the major earner of revenue, agriculture still

Trend analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Change in Sokoto State, Nigeria

Kassim and Usman 942
remains one of the most viable sectors of the economy.
The agricultural sector contributed 21.96 percent to GDP
in the first quarter of 2020 (NBS 2019). About 80% of the
domestic food in the country, especially from crops and
forestry is produced by small scale farmers. The fishery
and livestock products are supplemented by imports.
Agriculture, in addition to providing raw materials to the
manufacturing industries, also serves as a source of
foreign exchange earnings as well as economic
development. Agriculture provides employment for about
80% of Nigeria’s rural poor population in areas of cocoa,
peanuts, cotton, palm oil, corn, rice, sorghum, millet,
cassava (manioc, tapioca), yams, rubber; cattle, sheep,
goats, pigs; timber; fish (NBS 2019).
Currently, two important factors were identified as threats
to agricultural growth and development in Nigeria. These
are climate change and poor farm output due to inefficient
resource use (Ajebefun, 2002; Aye & Mungatana 2010;
Bosello et a., 2013; Hassan et a., 2012; Ogundele &
Okoruwa 2006; Placid, 2000). Despite these harsh
forecasts on the most important sector of the Nigerian
economy, there is still lack of sufficient empirical studies
that analyze the trend of climatic variability which largely
determines the agricultural productivity. The few studies
conducted on Nigeria based their analyses on regional
divide. Literature on the trend of climatic variability in
Northern Zones that are most vulnerable is scanty. This
makes it difficult to provide a clear picture of the
countrywide climatic variability, its impact on agriculture
and adaptation options to cushion the impacts. Similar
studies conducted outside Nigeria include (Galbhiye et a.,
2016; Meshram et a., 2018; Malik et a., 2020). Findings of
similar Studies conducted for Nigeria, Abatan (2018),
Alhaji (2018), Bose (2015), Ogunrinde (2019) and
Onyeneke (2020) are consistent with this Study.
Therefore, analysis of climatic variability in States such as
Sokoto, a predominantly agrarian State is increasingly
important for Nigeria’s food security and economic
development.
Study Area
Agriculture is the major economic activity of the people of
Sokoto State. Over 80% of people living in the State
practice one form of agriculture or the other as a means of
livelihood. The State is located in the dry Sudan savanna
region of Nigeria. An Annual average temperature of
28.3 °C makes the State one of the hottest in Nigeria. In
the dry season (February to April) daytime temperatures
can exceed 45 °C. The rainy season is short and lasts from
June to October. Agriculture is practiced both during the
rainy and dry seasons. Crops that are drought tolerant
such as millet and cowpea are grown in the rainy season.
In the dry season, mostly under irrigation, vegetable crops
such as tomatoes, onions, carrots and spinach are grown.
Reliance of farmers for rain fed agriculture and the dryness
of the area are likely to make agriculture more vulnerable
Trend analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Change in Sokoto State, Nigeria
to climate change. Most studies on climate trend detection
available in Nigeria are aggregated mainly at the national
level. Few studies disaggregated their analyses at the
regional or State levels. Analysis of climatic variability
disaggregated at the regional or State level is necessary
for a better understanding of their location-specific
behavior. Analysis of climatic trend detection in Sokoto
State is necessary in view of the strategic importance of
agriculture and the danger climate change poses to the
sector. The analysis could provide more insight for policy
makers to design a State climate change adaptation and
mitigation strategies for farmers to cope with climate
change.
Methodology
Climate trend detection is a useful exercise in climate
related studies. It gives an indication of the magnitude of
global warming. One powerful tool suitable for detecting
trend in time series such as climatic data is the Mann-
Kendall test (Mann 1945; Kendall 1946). Trend detection
is now gaining more prominence as a tool for revealing
evidence of climate change than ever before. This is
accomplished by specifying an increasing or decreasing
trend. The test is a non-parametric statistical technique
that is based on sign differences, and not directly on the
values of the random variables and as such the test is less
susceptible to the effect of outliers. Mann-Kendall test is
useful in analyzing data trends over a period of time. It is
applicable for dataset with uneven sampling and missing
values. The test does not require the assumption of
normality for the random variables, and is used to show
the direction of significant trends. In this Paper trend in
both temperature and rainfall during the period of 1970-
2015 was examined at the level of agricultural Zones by
clustering districts having similar agro climatic conditions
into homogenous groups. The Study also identified
structural breaks and climatic series at zonal and State
levels. Due to difficulty in obtaining climatic data for the
area, temperature and rainfall records for the period 1970-
2015 was used for the analysis of this study.
Mann-Kendall Test and Sen Slope Estimator
The current Study found it worthwhile to apply the Mann-
Kendall test to detect the trend of temperature and rainfall
for the data used in the Study within the period of 1970-
2015. Mann-Kendall test has been widely applied to detect
climatic trends in several countries (Chaoche et a., 2010;
Del Rio et a., 2011; Karabulut et a., 2008; Karmeshu 2010;
Olofintoye, 2012; Zhang et a., 2000). The strength of the
technique motivated the Study to apply it. The decision to
test the climate data for evidence of climate change was
considered in view of the fact that climate change is the
main problem setting of the Study area; Mann-Kendall
analysis in this Study included two elements; temperature
and rainfall. Sokoto State with an area of 25,973km2 has a
fairly large geographical spread.

Analysis of climatic behavior aggregated at the State level,
may not reflect the actual behavior of the climate. This
Paper, analyzed the behavior of climate (temperature &
rainfall) at the level of agricultural Zones in Sokoto State.
The Zones are Central Zone, Western Zone and Northern
Zone. Nigerian Meteorological Agency data on mean
yearly temperature and rainfall from 1970 to 2015 was
obtained from the nearest weather station from each Zone.
Mann-Kendall Test Specification
To detect trend using the Mann-Kendall test:
Null hypothesis H0 that there is no trend and the data are
independently and randomly ordered is tested against the
alternative hypothesis H1 that there exists a trend in the
time series. Mann-Kendall test statistic S is given by the
equation:
𝑆 = ∑𝑛−1 𝑛
𝑘−1 ∑𝑗=𝑘=1 𝑠𝑔𝑛 (Xj − Xk)
Where xj and xk are the annual data values in years j, k and
n is the length of the data. S is assumed to be 0 if no trend.
An S statistic with a high positive value implied an
increasing trend, whereas low negative value represents a
decreasing trend in the time series as in the equation
below:
1 𝑖𝑓 𝑥𝑗 − 𝑥𝑘 > 0
𝑠𝑔𝑛(𝑥𝑗 − 𝑥𝑘) = { 0 𝑖𝑓 𝑥𝑗 − 𝑥𝑘 = 0
−1 𝑖𝑓 𝑥𝑗 − 𝑥𝑘 < 0
To indicate the statistical significance of the trend, the
probability of S and the sample size n needs to be
determined. The variance of S is calculated as VAR(S)
1
VAR(S) = [𝑛 (𝑛 − 1)( 2𝑛 − 5) − ∑9𝑝=1 𝑡𝑝 (𝑡𝑝 − 1)(2𝑡𝑝 +
18
5 )]
The calculated values of S and VAR(S) have to be
obtained to calculate the Z test statistic, which is given in
the equation below. The Z statistic is the normalized test
statistic used to determine the level of significance.
𝑆−1
𝑖𝑓 𝑆 > 0
√𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑆)
Z= 0 𝑖𝑓 𝑆 = 0
𝑆+1
𝑖𝑓 𝑆 < 0
{√𝑉𝑎𝑟 (𝑆)
To test the statistical significance of Z value at 95% and
99% levels of significance where the critical value of Z at
95% level is Z0.005 = 1.96 and the critical value of Z at 99%
level is Z 0.001 =2.58. If Z is negative and the absolute value
of Z calculated is greater than the critical value, the trend
is said to be significantly decreasing; but if the value of Z
calculated is positive and greater than the critical value the
Trend analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Change in Sokoto State, Nigeria
J. Agric. Econs. Rural. Dev. 943
trend is said to be significantly increasing If the absolute
value of Z is less than the critical value, it implies that there
is no trend and the alternative hypothesis that there is
trend is rejected. If the trend is significant, it implies that
the trend is as a result of a definite cause and not due to
chance alone. A significant trend at 99% level showed that
the trend is highly significant.
Theil-Sen Method of Linear Regression
After estimating the Mann-Kendall statistics which only
showed the direction of the trend, a Sen Slope estimator
called the Kendall robust line fit, is applied to calculate the
degree of the trend, in a time series data where the trend
is assumed to be linear. The technique was named after
Theil Sen (1968) who developed the estimator. It is a non-
parametric test that is employed to provide an estimate of
true slope of the Mann-Kendall trend. It shows the
1 measure of the change in the trend per unit time, it is less
vulnerable to single data and outlier effect. Another
strength of the test is that it provides a more accurate
estimate than linear regression for skewed and
heteroscedastic data. Sen Slope estimation is given by:
𝑋𝑗 𝑋𝑘
𝑄= − 5
𝑗 𝑘
Where Q = Sen Slope estimator
Xj and Xk are data values at time j and k
2
Cusum Test
Following Brown et a., (1975): Romily, (2005) and Paul et
a., (2014) this Study employ the CUSUM (Cumulative
Sum) test to detect change points in the time series data.
Cusum test is easy to implement and can serve as a tool
to test and estimate locations of changes in a series.
CUSUM test proposed by E. S. Page (1954) is employed
3
to test H0: 𝜎𝑡2 is constant versus H1: 𝜎𝑡2 is not constant over
X1…Xn, where (Xt) is a series of independent random
variables with (0, 𝜎𝑡2). As its name implies, CUSUM
involves the calculation of a cumulative sum (which is what
makes it "sequential"). Samples from a process are
assigned weights, and summed as follows:
S0 = 0.
4
St+1= max (0, St + 𝑥𝑡 𝜔𝑡 ), 6
When the value of S exceeds a certain threshold value, a
change in value has been found. The above formula only
detects changes in the positive direction. When negative
changes need to be found as well, the min operation
should be used instead of the max operation, and this
time a change has been found when the value of S is
below the (negative) value of the threshold value.
Kassim and Usman 944

Chow Test RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Chow test is used to determine whether the true Mann-Kendall Trend Analysis
coefficients in two linear regression models on separate
datasets are the same. It is commonly employed in the Table 1 showed the result of the descriptive statistics for
analysis of time series data to confirm the presence of the variables used in the Mann-Kendall test for the entire
structural break of a period. Sokoto State and for each of the agricultural Zones.
Chow test statistic is computed as: Northern Zone had an average minimum temperature of
32.8 °C a maximum of 37°C, a mean temperature of 34.0
𝑅𝑆𝑆 −(𝑅𝑆𝑆 +𝑅𝑆𝑆 /𝑘) °C and a standard deviation of 0.88. The figures for
𝐹 ~ (𝑅𝑆𝑆11 +𝑅𝑆𝑆22 )/𝑛1+𝑛
2
2−2𝑘 )
7
Rainfall were 262mm, 844mm, 553mm and 147mm. The
The test statistic follows F distribution with k and N1+N2−2k values for Western Zone were 32.2°C for minimum
temperature, 37 °C for maximum temperature, and 34.4°C
degrees of freedom. Conclusion about the null can be
for mean and 0.62 as the value for standard deviation. The
drawn by finding the critical value from the F test table.
rainfall figures are 584mm minimum, 1566mm maximum,
995mm mean and a standard deviation of 177. In the
Central Zone the values obtained for temperature were
32.2 °C for minimum, 36 °C maximum, 34.5 °C for mean
and 0.69 for standard deviation. Rainfall values for the
Central Zone were 373mm for minimum, 850.5mm for
maximum, and 621 for mean and a value of 115.4 for
standard deviation. The figures for the entire State were
also calculated as follows, 31.6°C, 37°C, 34.34°C and 0.92
for minimum, maximum, mean and standard deviation for
the temperature variable, while the figures for Rainfall
variable for the whole State were 252 mm, 1566 mm, 774
mm and 245 for minimum, maximum, mean and standard
deviation. Temperature and rainfall being the two most
important elements of climate that influence agricultural
productivity in Nigeria were considered in the analysis of
this Study. Similarly, due to difficulty in obtaining data for
the area of study temperature and rainfall data from 1970
to 2015 were used.

Table 1: Descriptive statistics for the variables used in the Mann-Kendall analysis
Zone Observation Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation
0C mm 0C mm 0C mm
Temp. Rainfall Temp Rainfall Temp Rainfall Temp. Rainfall Temp. Rainfall
NZ 45 45 32 262 37 884.4 34.02 553.46 0.88 146.64
WZ 45 45 32.20 584 35.5 1566 34.44 995.17 0.62 177.49
CZ 45 45 32.20 373 36 850.50 34.54 621.47 0.69 115.42
ALL SS 135 135 31.6 252 37 1566.2 34.34 773.80 0.92 244.86
Note; NZ= Northern Zone; WZ= Western Zone; CZ= Central Zone; ALL SS = Sokoto State

To detect climatic trend in the Study area using Mann
Kendall trend detection, Sen Slope, Kendall’s tau, Z
statistics and Mann Kendall statistics S were calculated
and the results obtained were presented in Table 2 below.
However, it is pertinent to give a brief exposition of the
statistics measure for good understanding of the results.
Sen Slope as described above, measures the degree of
the change in the trend per unit time, while Kendall’s tau is
a measure of correlation; and so measures the strength of
the relationship between two variables, in the case of this
Study, temperature and Rainfall. In common with other
measures of correlation, Kendall's tau will take values
between −1 and +1, with a positive correlation indicating
that the ranks of both variables increase together, whilst a
negative correlation indicates that as the rank of one
variable increases, the other one decreases. Z is the
normalized test statistic, the trend is said to be decreasing
if Z is negative and the computed probability is greater than
the level of significance. The trend is said to be increasing
if the Z is positive and the computed probability is greater
than the level of significance. If the computed probability is
less than the level of significance, there is no trend. S is
the Mann Kendall statistics. A very high positive value of S
is an indicator of an increasing trend, and a very low
negative value indicates a decreasing trend.

Trend analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Change in Sokoto State, Nigeria


Table 2: Result of Mann-Kendall test & Sen Slope estimator from 1970-2015
Zone Sen slope Kendall’s tau Z Trends
statisticα(0.05)
Temp.Rfall. Temp.Rfall. Temp.Rfall. Tem Rfall. Temp. Rfall.
signcp sign cp
NZ 0.03 2.4 0.39 0.14 + 0.99 +0.98
WZ 0.02 2.7 0.23 0.14 + 0.95 +0.99
CZ 0.03 2.4 0.35 0.17 + 0.98 +0.97
ALL -0.002 2.9 -0.076 0.49 − 0.99 +0.99
SST
Note: *** significant at 1%; **sig. at 5% level; NS = not significant; CP = Computed probability of normalized test
statistics. Temp. = Temperature; Rfall. = Rainfall
The last two columns of Table 2 presented the values for
Kendall statistics S for both temperature and Rainfall for
the three agricultural Zones and the State in general. The
values for temperature for Northern Zone, Western Zone
and Central Zones were 410, 202 and 368. The figure for
the whole State was −1119. For rainfall the following
values were obtained 161,156,183, for Northern, Western
and Central Zones. The figure for the whole State was
8766. According to the result of the Study the Sen Slope
figures for temperature obtained according to the
agricultural Zones were 0.03, 0.02, and 0.03 representing
Northern, Western and Central Zones. The value for the
whole State was −0.002. The Sen Slope figures for rainfall
were 2.4 for Northern Zone, 2.7 for Western Zone and 2.4
for Central Zone. 2.9 represent the value for the whole
State. The statistics for Kendall’s tau was also shown in
the Table. For temperature variable, the values obtained
were 0.39 for Sokoto North, 0.23 for Western Zone and
0.35 for Central Zone −0.076 was the figure for the entire
State. The statistic for Rainfall variable was 0.14 for
Northern Zone, 0.14 for Western Zone and 0.17 for Central
Zone. Similarly, the value of the statistics for the entire
State was 0.49. The values of Z statistic obtained in the
analysis of the Study showed that in the Northern Zone,
the variable for temperature got a positive sign and the
computed probability of the normalized test statistic (CP)
at α(0.05) was0.99. The variable for Western Zone was
positive, and had a (CP) value of 0.95; the temperature
variable for Central Zone was also positively signed, and
carries a (CP) value of 0.98. Finally, the Z statistic for the
entire State had a positive sign with a CP value of 0.99.
Furthermore, the analysis included Rainfall variable, and
the figures for Z statistic; and accordingly, the following
figures were obtained; Northern Zone positive with CP
value of 0.98, Western Zone positive with CP value of 0.99,
Central Zone had a positive Z value and a CP figure of
0.99. For the entire State, the Z statistics was positively
signed with a value of 0.99.For all the Zones, in the case
of temperature and Rainfall variable, the Z statistics was
computed at α (0.05). Similarly, the values for the Z
statistics for all the Zones were positively signed, except
Trend analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Change in Sokoto State, Nigeria
J. Agric. Econs. Rural. Dev. 945
P- value Kendall S
Temp. Rfall
0.00*** 0.14 NS 410 161
0.02** 0.15 NS 202 156
0.001** 0.08* 368 183
0.13NS .001*** 8766 −1119
the temperature value for the entire Sokoto State which
was negatively signed. The calculated p-values for the
Mann-Kendall analysis were also shown in Table 2. The p-
values obtained according to agricultural Zones for
temperature were 0.00 for Northern Zone, showing
statistical significance at 1% level, 0.002 for Western
Zone, indicating that the result was statistically significant
at 5% and 0.001 for Central Zone, indicating that the result
was statistically significant at 5%. However, the result of
the aggregated analysis at the State level showed that
temperature was not statistically significant. The p-values
for Rainfall showed that the results for Northern Zone and
Western Zones were not statistically significant. However,
for the Central Zone the result was statistically significant
at 10%. In contrast to the aggregated result for the entire
State for temperature which was not statistically significant
the aggregated result for the entire State for Rainfall
variable was statistically significant at 1%.Result of
Mankendell test and senslope estimator used in the Study,
showed that both the temperature and Rainfall, two most
important elements of climate in Sokoto State, have been
on the increase between the periods of 1970 to 2015.
Cumulative sum test
Mann Kendall trend test in this Study was only used as a
tool to detect trend in climate of Sokoto State from 1970
2015. However, the test does not indicate the time of shift
(climate change) in the series. This Study employed the
use of CUSUM test to detect the point of climatic shift and
then apply the Chow test to confirm the break. The results
of CUSUM test showed that the climate of Sokoto State
has shifted from 1970 to 2015. Analysis showed that for
Sokoto State, the point of break was 2003 and the rate of
change of temperature before the break point, was 3.13%
and 3.08% after the break point. For the agricultural Zones,
the points of break were in 2004, 1992 and 2003 for the
Northern, Western and Central Zones respectively. The
rates of change in temperature before the breakpoints
were 3.95%, 2.97% and 3.95% for the three Zones. After
the break points, temperature changes for the three Zones
Kassim and Usman 946

were 2.66% and 3.16% for the Western and the Central
Zones respectively. However, for the Northern Zone, a
decline in the rate of temperature increase was witnessed.
CUSUM test results also reveal that rainfall pattern has
shifted in the State over the period covered by the Study.
The break in rainfall for the whole State was in the year
1997. Northern Zone had its break in rainfall in 1999,
Western Zone in 1993 and Central Zone in 1997. The
highest percentage increase before the break point was
58.36% for the Northern Zone, and 49.5% for the Central
Zone.

Table 3: Breaks in annual average temperature

Region All Sokoto State Northern Zone Western Central Zone
Zone
Break 2003 2004 1992 2003
Rate of change in temperature from 3.13% 3.95% 2.97% 3.95%
1970 to Break point
Rate of change in temperature from 3.08% −34.9 2.66% 3.16%
break point to 2015

Table 4: Breaks in annual average rainfall

Zone All Sokoto State Northern Zone Western Central Zone
Zone
Break 1997 1999 1993 1997
Rate of change in Rainfall from 1970 to Break 43.56% 58.36% 20.4% 35.45%
point
Rate of change in Rainfall from break point to 64.8% 32.23% 45.82% 49.5%
2015

Chow test
The Study employed the use of Chow test to confirm the
shift in climate. Findings on the Chow statistics also
showed that there was break in the climate of Sokoto State
from 1970-2015, for all the agricultural Zones, and the
State in general. The values for the F test were statistically
significant at 1% for all the Zones. The results of the Study
therefore fail to reject null hypothesis that there is stability
in rainfall and temperature of Sokoto state over the period
covered by the Study. This is a further attestation that in
recent years Sokoto State witnessed significant changes
in climate.

Table 5: Chow test

S/NO Agricultural Zone F -test P<0.001
Temperature Rainfall Temperature Rainfall
1 All SS 54.705 52.531 0.001 0.001
2 Northern 43.422 74.704 0.001 0.001
3 West 73.804 44.738 0.001 0.001
4 Central 52.665 52.435 0.001 0.001

Trend analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Change in Sokoto State, Nigeria

 J. Agric. Econs. Rural. Dev. 947

Table 6: Structural break point along with their significance level by Chow test
Zone Break Chow statistics Rate of change in temperature from Rate of change in
1970 to break point temperature after to
break point
Temperature
All Sokoto State 2003 54.705 3.13 3.08
Central 2003 52.665 3.95 3.16
North 2004 43.422 3.95 −34.9
West 1992 73.804 2.97 2.66

Rainfall
All Sokoto State 1997 52.531 43.56 64.80
Central 1997 52.531 35.45 49.50
North 1999 74.704 58.36 32.23
West 1993 44.738 20.40 45.82

CONCLUSION both temperature and Rainfall in the State from 1970 to

This Study has detected that there was an upward trend in
both temperature and rainfall in Sokoto State from 1970 to
2015. A structural break in temperature was observed to
occur at the State level around 2003. Around the same
time, findings of the Study detected a structural break in
annual temperature, suggesting that the rise in
temperature during these periods resulted in the structural
break. Similarly, in all the agricultural Zones, varying
degrees of increase in temperatures were observed. For
Rainfall, a structural break was detected in the year 1993
at the State level and the Central Zone. Further analysis in
the Study, indicated that there was a significant change in
2015. The implication for these findings is that the climate
of the State has changed over the period covered by the
Study. In view of these, citizens, especially the farmers and
all relevant stakeholders, should be sensitized on the
implications of the findings, similarly, efforts must be made
to develop adaptation strategies as a coping mechanism
to cushion the impact of climate change, especially for the
agricultural sector, which drives the economy of the State,
and provides means of livelihood for most of the citizens.

Trend analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Change in Sokoto State, Nigeria

Kassim and Usman 948

Figure 1: Temperature & Rainfall values all Sokoto State from 1970-2015
38 1800
37 1600
1400
36

Precipitation
Temperature

1200
35 1000
34 800
600
33
400
32 200
31 0
1960 1980 2000 2020 1960 1980 2000 2020
Years Years

Figure 2: Temperature & Rainfall values Northern Zone from 1970-2015

38 1000
37 800
Temperature

Precipitation

36
600
35
400
34
200
33
32 0
1960 1980 2000 2020 1960 1980 2000 2020
Years Years

Figure 3: Temperature & Rainfall values for Southern Zone from 1970-2015
36 1800
35.5 1600
35 1400
Precipitation
Temperature

34.5 1200
1000
34
800
33.5 600
33 400
32.5 200
32 0
1960 1980 2000 2020 1960 1980 2000 2020
Years Years

Trend analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Change in Sokoto State, Nigeria

 J. Agric. Econs. Rural. Dev. 949

Figure 4: Temperature & Rainfall values for Central Zone from 1970-2015
36.5 900
36 800
35.5 700
Temperature

Precipitation
35 600
34.5 500
34 400
33.5 300
33 200
32.5 100
32 0
1960 1980 2000 2020 1960 1980 2000 2020
Years Years

Conflict of Interest Climate Change Project. Ibadan, Nigeria: Nigerian

The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest
regarding the publication of this paper.
Acknowledgement
This publication was a product of Institution Based
Research Funded by the Tertiary Education Trust Fund of
the Federal Government of Nigeria. The authors greatly
acknowledged all contributions towards the success of this
publication.
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Trend analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Change in Sokoto State, Nigeria