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SECTOR UPDATE
Focus on costs; all eyes on demand revival
Q1FY21 has expectedly been a weak quarter for consumer electrical companies amid COVID-19 led
lockdown impacting revenues and profitability. However scale-up in revenues has been faster than
anticipated with companies seeing revenues touching ~90% yoy in June/July. While uncertainty
continues to prevail with increasing local lockdowns, mgmts. are seeing broad-based demand recovery
and continue to work on optimizing costs and product innovation towards wellness products.
Concurrently, retail demand for relatively less discretionary products (fans, lighting, switches, etc.) will
see quicker recovery in near term; while discretionary items (RAC, coolers, etc.), real estate related
products (switchgears, cables, etc) and products with higher B2B/B2G (lighting, cables) likely to see
gradual rebound. Atmanirbhar Bharat and focus on reducing import dependence on China is gaining
traction with government planning to increase import duties and incentivize local production. We believe
these initiatives will increase the local value addition over the next few years. Overall, we continue to like
the structural story of low penetration, improved power availability and increasing premiumization with
deepening of reach. Crompton remains our top pick (cost leadership, strong BS, attractive valuations).
Recovery led by smaller towns; urban doing catch-up: COVID-19 led lockdown impacting demand does
not come as a surprise as stores remained closed and supply chain disrupted (restoration was also slow).
Green and orange zones, particularly the smaller towns and rural areas which were least affected by COVID
and opened up faster, led the demand during the quarter. Demand in Tier-1 cities was impacted sharply as
they were among slowest to open-up; however has been improving month on month. Mgmt commentary
across companies suggests healthy demand pickup from June (as secondary sales picked up leading to
reduction in inventory levels) and July creeping nearer to pre-COVID levels. However increasing local
lockdowns pose challenges impacting revenues. We note, all companies have seen a surge in their e-comm
sales (400% growth for Crompton), and have been increasing focus towards this channel.
Focus on cost optimisation: Companies focussed on cost rationalization - reducing payroll costs, lower ad
(90-95% cut) and other spends to ensure limited impact on operating margins. Most companies surprised
positively on the cost front, demonstrating better cost mgmt. However, only a part of these savings to be
sustainable as expenses like travel/A&P would come back once things normalise. We note Crompton has
highlighted Rs1-1.5bn saving led by cost initiatives in addition to savings from COVID related measures.
Unorganized players losing share: Voltas, Havells, Polycab, saw increase in market share despite lockdown
as supply chain disruption impacted ability of unorganized players. We note, that RAC segment is seeing
pricing pressure amid anticipation of slow pickup in demand and aggressive pricing by dealers to free up
their working capital by liquidating inventory before the peak season (typically till May/June).
Inventory levels to normalize in Q2; B/S no concern: Low off take of dealer inventory led to weak primary
sales during the quarter. Inventory levels were particularly high in the RAC space where in anticipation of
China supply chain disruption and onset of peak season, manufacturers and dealers built up their
inventory. However, with demand picking up and inventory levels have normalized in most cases while for
segments like RAC, the inventory levels are likely to normalise by 3Q21. Most companies in the space have
seen an improvement in cash on books with limited debt. However, with demand outlook bleak, most
companies are looking to limit capex and conserve cash. We note, while liquidity and cash levels are high,
companies like Blue Star, Havells and Crompton have issued CPs/NCDs/bank credit, to avoid unforeseen
liquidity constraints.
Comparative valuations – FY22E
Price Mkt Cap EPS EPS P/E EV/EBITDA ROE ROCE
Company Rating
(Rs) (Rs bn) (Rs) growth (%) (x) (x) (%) (%)
Havells OP 629 3,93,343 13.2 48.8 47.8 31.3 17.3 19.2
CGCEL OP 261 1,63,309 8.1 24.8 32.2 23.0 27.8 28.5
Voltas OP 650 2,14,926 19.6 81.1 33.1 28.9 14.7 13.1
Bluestar N 549 52,713 18.5 118.1 29.6 15.0 21.8 26.2
Dixon OP 7,985 89,076 157.8 72.5 50.6 27.4 22.4 33.9
Amber OP 1,840 57,874 48.7 636.2 37.8 16.9 12.1 13.9
Source: Company, IDFC Securities Research
For Private Circulation only. “Important disclosures appear at the back of this report”
Consumer Electricals
Exhibit 1: Employee and other costs cut by all companies (ad spends also sharply lower yoy)
Employee Costs (Rs mn) 1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 % yoy % qoq
Havells 2,413 2,395 2,195 1,989 1,765 -27% -11%
Voltas 1,632 1,576 1,734 1,776 1,574 -4% -11%
Crompton 820 810 774 706 720 -12% 2%
Bluestar 1,147 1,195 1,260 1,243 699 -39% -44%
Bajaj Electricals 924 1,011 952 947 954 3% 1%
Orient electric 487 492 510 496 426 -12% -14%
Polycab 909 916 906 886 795 -13% -10%
Vguard 602 450 584 432 546 -9% 27%
Exhibit 2: Gross margins deteriorate yoy for companies – Voltas, Crompton and Bajaj Elec see improvement
Gross margins (%) 1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 chg yoy chg qoq
Havells 37.4 39.1 39.6 36.2 34.7 -267 bps -148 bps
Voltas 25.2 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.5 +335 bps +28 bps
Crompton 32.6 31.9 32.0 31.6 32.5 -9 bps +92 bps
Bluestar 24.8 25.2 24.7 25.4 23.5 -134 bps -196 bps
Bajaj Electricals 27.2 25.9 28.5 22.9 27.6 +37 bps +464 bps
Orient electric 32.8 34.2 36.8 30.5 28.7 -418 bps -187 bps
Polycab 26.7 26.2 27.1 30.3 26.5 -14 bps -373 bps
Vguard 32.6 33.8 33.2 33.3 29.2 -334 bps -412 bps
Source: Company, IDFC Securities Research
Exhibit 4: Revenue declines in the range of 45-55%; Negative op leverage dents in margins (except CGCEL)
Revenues (Rs m) 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 FY18 FY19 FY20
Havells 2,856 3,695 3,800 2,504 2,808 3,046 2,343 1,380 11,563 12,934 10,701
Crompton 3,250 3,188 3,425 2,739 2,877 2,843 2,770 1,236 12,770 12,653 11,229
Orient 1,296 1,358 1,619 1,392 1,514 1,709 1,086 753 4,074 5,348 5,702
Revenue (% yoy growth)
Havells (0.4) 28.7 17.7 (3.1) (1.7) (17.6) (38.3) (44.9) 19.1 11.9 (17.3)
Crompton (3.8) (2.4) 1.4 (1.8) (11.5) (10.8) (19.1) (54.9) 13.1 (0.9) (11.3)
Orient 29.6 29.6 26.9 29.5 16.9 25.9 (32.9) (45.9) 31.3 6.6
EBIT (Rs m)
Havells 847 1,089 1,047 357 775 894 329 29 3,356 3,694 2,355
Crompton 206 282 393 141 151 196 193 75 1,473 1,069 680
Orient 84 145 245 139 109 226 123 48 345 588 597
OPM (%)
Havells 29.6 29.5 27.6 14.2 27.6 29.4 14.0 2.1 29.0 28.6 22.0
Crompton 6.3 8.9 11.5 5.1 5.2 6.9 7.0 6.1 11.5 8.4 6.1
Orient 6.5 10.7 15.1 10.0 7.2 13.2 11.3 6.4 8.5 11.0 10.5
Source: Company, IDFC Securities Research
Exhibit 5: Summer season sales largely lost due to lockdowns – Voltas sees sharp margin expansion
Revenues (Rs m) 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 FY18 FY19 FY20
Voltas (UCPL) 4,410 5,259 9,976 17,488 5,256 6,005 11,989 7,071 32,261 32,906 40,737
Bluestar (UCPL) 3,431 3,915 7,036 9,069 3,772 4,202 5,963 2,749 20,887 22,690 23,006
Hitachi 3,469 4,349 6,655 9,519 3,766 4,360 4,329 2,696 21,854 22,413 21,974
Lloyd 2,579 3,572 5,324 6,520 1,800 3,004 4,579 3,062 14,141 18,556 15,903
Symphony 1,480 1,590 1,380 1,600 1,950 2,070 1,540 400 6,870 5,240 7,160
Amber 3,298 5,181 11,960 12,359 6,232 7,884 13,152 2,595 21,281 27,520 39,628
Revenue (% yoy growth)
Voltas (cooling) 8.2 (3.0) (6.3) 46.8 19.2 14.2 20.2 (59.6) 5.9 2.0 23.8
Bluestar (cooling) 8.9 22.0 19.0 9.2 10.0 7.3 (15.3) (69.7) 4.6 8.6 1.4
Hitachi 9.3 15.2 6.0 19.9 8.6 0.2 (34.9) (71.7) 12.5 2.6 (2.0)
Lloyd (4.4) 21.9 (8.9) (7.9) (30.2) (15.9) (14.0) (53.0) 31.2 (14.3)
Symphony (19.7) (26.9) (11.2) 102.5 31.8 30.2 11.6 (75.0) 7.7 (23.7) 36.6
Amber 74.5 89.0 52.2 10.0 (79.0) 28.8 29.3 44.0
EBITDA (Rs m)
Voltas (cooling EBIT) 278 447 1,037 2,298 463 607 1,754 1,096 4,749 3,620 5,121
Bluestar (cooling EBIT) 82 94 733 989 120 77 438 -38 1,681 1,859 1,623
Hitachi 52 -30 773 1,107 20 324 272 -221 1,989 1,638 1,722
Lloyd 84 61 182 90 -396 -60 1 -30 1,126 986 -366
Symphony 430 430 290 380 630 680 430 -50 2,170 1,320 2,120
Amber 136 290 1,131 1,164 367 543 1,019 -55 1,835 2,129 3,093
OPM (%)
Voltas (cooling EBIT) 6.3 8.5 10.4 13.1 8.8 10.1 14.6 15.5 14.7 11.0 12.6
Bluestar (cooling EBIT) 2.4 2.4 10.4 10.9 3.2 1.8 7.3 (1.4) 8.0 8.2 7.1
Hitachi 1.5 (0.7) 11.6 11.6 0.5 7.4 6.3 (8.2) 9.1 7.3 7.8
Lloyd 3.3 1.7 3.4 1.4 (22.0) (2.0) - (1.0) 8.0 5.3 (2.3)
Symphony 29.1 27.0 21.0 23.8 32.3 32.9 27.9 (12.5) 31.6 25.2 29.6
Amber 4.1 5.6 9.5 9.4 5.9 6.9 7.7 (2.1) 8.6 7.7 7.8
Source: Company, IDFC Securities Research; *Lloyd EBITDA estimated in FY20
o Polycab’s wires & cables segment saw 50% decline yoy; Havells saw a decline of 41% yoy while
Finolex Cables reported 53% decline in revenues amid weak macros. Companies saw share of
unorganized players in the market reducing.
o KEI’s revenue decline was contained at 24% yoy. While domestic retail business declined 50%
yoy, institutional sales fell only 6% (as exports grew 70% yoy to Rs1.6bn).
• Margin trends is broadly similar across companies (except KEI) with lower revenues impacting
profitability. Polycab saw sharpest decline in margins (from 11.4% to 3.1%), also attributable to NIL
revenues from Dangote. Strong exports growth led to better EBIT margins at KEI.
Exhibit 6: Cables saw revenue decline on back of lockdown and weak demand
Revenue 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 FY18 FY19 FY20
Finolex 7,140 7,496 8,231 8,077 7,158 7,024 6,514 3,771 28,289 30,778 28,773
KEI 8,088 8,782 9,748 8,549 9,948 10,995 10,332 6,462 27,265 33,596 39,824
Havells 7,665 8,203 8,979 7,785 8,213 7,121 6,283 4,611 26,001 32,346 29,402
Polycab 16,094 18,093 21,221 16,381 19,220 21,692 18,605 8,252 56,079 70,648 75,898
Revenue (% yoy growth)
Finolex 2.0 14.0 3.0 2.0 - (6.0) (21.0) (53.0) 16.0 9.0 (7.0)
KEI 36.0 25.0 20.0 23.0 23.0 25.0 6.0 (24.0) 20.0 23.0 19.0
Havells 34.6 31.1 16.8 3.8 7.2 (13.2) (30.0) (41.0) 9.0 24.0 (9.0)
Polycab 13.1 7.5 19.4 19.9 (12.3) (50.0) 7.0 26.0 7.0
EBIT
Finolex 1,332 1,192 1,402 1,181 1,393 1,093 895 470 5,059 5,328 4,561
KEI 839 1,036 1,079 891 1,042 1,321 1,149 753 2,956 3,681 4,403
Havells 1,070 1,294 1,575 845 1,510 1,248 666 366 3,256 4,380 4,269
Polycab 1,759 3,037 2,097 1,867 2,019 2,584 2,729 255 3,161 8,354 9,199
OPM (%)
Finolex 18.7 15.9 17.0 14.6 19.5 15.6 13.7 12.5 17.9 17.3 16
KEI 10.4 11.8 11.1 10.4 10.5 12.0 11.1 11.6 10.8 11.0 11
Havells 14.0 15.8 17.5 10.9 18.4 17.5 10.6 7.9 12.5 13.5 15
Polycab 10.9 16.8 9.9 11.4 10.5 11.9 14.7 3.1 5.6 11.8 12.1
Source: Company, IDFC Securities Research; *V guard revenues estimated for FY20 quarterlies
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*Name of the company has changed to DAM Capital Advisors Limited in the records of Registrar of Companies
w.e.f. 28th July 2020, necessary application has been filed with SEBI for changing the same in their records.
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