Current Condition & Future

Prediction of Oil Industry

(Middle East & North Africa)
Dr. Ardian Nengkoda
Outline

BACKGROUND GLOBAL MIDDLE EAST & UNCERTAINTY TAKE A WAY FOR

CHALLENGES NORTH AFRICA FUTURE DEMAND STUDENT
 Pre COVID-19

COVID-19 pandemic and

crisis

Background Economic and social effect

Oil price collaps

Disruption
Pre COVID-19
OPEC Crude
Oil Reserve
Supply and
Demand
World
COVID-19
Pandemic
Global
challenges
(this time is
different…)
Middle East & North
Africa
• COVID-19 and oil prices collapsing
• WHO ranks most MENA countries
relatively high among the world’s 191
health systems (Tandon et al. 2000)
• It is likely that lower oil prices will
directly hurt oil exporters and
indirectly hurt importers (which will
see reduced foreign direct
investment, remittances, and grants
from the exporters).
• Private-sector development and
broader economic reformation is
needed for future

Rabah Arezki, Rachel Yuting Fan, World Bank 10 March 2020

*Zawya, March 2020
Uncertainty
Future
Demand

Sources: Bank of America, Citi, Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley, S&P

Take a way…
References

• IEA – International Energy Agency (2020), Oil Market Report - March 2020.
• Tandon A, C J Murray, J A Lauer and D Evans (2000), “Measuring overall
health system performance for 191 countries”, World Health Organization,
Geneva
• Oil Market Report, OPEC, April 2020
• World Bank Report, March 2020
• ICIS Report, March 2020