SOCIETY OF PETROLEUMENGINEERS OF AIME PAPER

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NUMBER SPE 3470
Dallas~ Texas 75206

THIS IS A PREPRINT --- SUBJECT TO CORRECTION

Optimization of Sucker Rod Replacement

BY

Maston L. Powers, Member AIME, ContinentalOil Co.

@ Copyright 1971
American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical, and Petroleum Engineera, Inc.

This paper was prepared for the &th Annual Fall Meeting of the Society of Petroleum Engineers
of AIM33,to be held in New Orleans, La., od. 3-6, 1971. Permissionto copy is restrictedto an
abstractof not more than 300 words. Illustrationsmay not be copied. The abstract should contain
conspicuousacknowledgmentof where and by whom the paper is presented. Publicationelsewhereafter
publicationin the JOURNAL OF PETROLEUMTECHNOLOGYor the SOCIETY OF PETROLEUMENGINEERSJOURNAL is
usually granted upon request to the Editor of the appropriatejournalprovided agreementto give
proper credit is made.

Discussionof this paper is invited. Three copies of any discussionshould be sent to the
Society of Petroleum Engineersoffice. Such discussionmay be presented at the above meeting and,
with the paper, may be consideredfor publicationin one of the two SPE magazines.

ABSTRACT through Aug., 1970, it was found that fatigued

A technique has been developed to optimize
sucker-rod string replacementdecisions. The
basis for this optimizationassumes that the
failure frequency expectation of sucker rods
increases with time at a variable rate
approximatinga Gaussian curve throughout their
usable life. At some point in time the mainte-
nance cost of continued operation of a fatigued
rod string exceeds the capital cost and
associated maintenance cost of a replacement
string. A mathematical.expression representing
this optimum replacementpoint was developed and
solved for the time interval between sucker rod
failures. The resulting equation csn be appliec
to a partial replacement as well as a complete
replacement rod string. A graphical solution
was deveioped to implement the Optfiiizaticm
rod strings were being replaced after an average
of 7.6 failures. Wells that exhibited symptoms
of specific mechanical problems were excluded
from this analysis. For example, instances of
chronic joint failures were attributedto
improper makeup practices rather than fatigue.
Ju4gment indicated that the observed
replacementpractices needed improvement. An
engineetig basis for economicallyoptimizing
sucker-rodreplacementdecisions was therefore
pursued.
BASIS OF OPTIMIZATIONTECHNIQUE
Performance of sucker reds is affected by
numerous well conditions such as maximum rod
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technique for routine field use. of the environment,and a variety of mechanical

INTRODUCTION
A need for improved criteria for making
sucker-rod string replacementdecisions became
evident while making a detailed study of operat-
ing costs and field practices in the midcontine~
area. It was found that sucker rods were being
replaced on as many bases as there were
individualsmaking replacementdecisions.
During the time interval for which sucker- should increase with time in a rough approxima-
rod replacementdata was compiled, Nov., 1969,
References and illustrationsat end of paper.
problems. Thus, each well can be expected to
exhibit unique behavior. However, by assuming
that individual well conditionsremain constant
during an snslysis period, sucker rod perfor-
mance can be generalized.
For any combinationof constant well condi-
tions a properly designed sucker rod string will
initially have relativelyinfrequent failures.
As a result of cyclic loading in normal use, the
failure frequency expectationof the string
tion to a Gaussian curve, as depicted in Fig. 1.
2 OPTIMIZATIONOF SUCKER ROD REPLACEMENT
BY rescsling this curve, it would represent the
maintenance cost expectationof the rod string.
A generalizedmaintenance-costcurve of a
sucker rod string was thus constructedin Fig.
2.
The capital cost of replacing a string of
sucker rods equals the product of the replace-
ment rods investment diminished by the salvage
value of the rods replaced, times the capital
recovery factor for the current interest rate
and anticipated sucker rod string life. Annual
compoundinginterest tables were used in this
development. Except for the effects of infla-
tion and fluctuationsof interest rate, the
capital cost for replacement rods is constant,
regardless of when the purchase is made. Thus,
replacement cost, augmented by the initial
maintenance cost expectationof a new rod string
can be considered a horizontal line as shown in
Fig. 2.
The optimum time for rod replacementis at
the point when the anticipatedmaintenance cost
of a fatigued rod string equals the sum of
capital cost and maintenance cost of a new rod
string. This is the point of titersectionof
the two solid curves on Fig. 2. The generalized
maintenance-coste-ur-rewas d@icated as a
dashed line with its beginning shifted to this
intersection. The dashed line, therefore, rep-
resents the total cost of installationand
maintenance of a replacement sucker rod string.
The area between the maintenance-costcurve and
the dashed line curve represents the savings
accruing from replacing a rod string at the
optimum time.
OPTIMUM SUCKER-RODREPLACEMENTEQUATION
The optimum sucker-rodreplacement equation
(Eq. 2) is derived in the Appendix from the
basis establishedin the preceding paragraph.
The mathematical expressionrepresentingthe
optimum replacementpoint was solved for the
time interval.between rod failures (the recip-
rocal of failure frequency) to facilitate field
application. Variables consideredin this
development include the price and anticipated
economic life of a replacementrod string,
interest rate, average well-servicingcost for
rod failures, average number of hours of down-
ttie per rod failure, oil producing rate of the
well, price of oil and net interest. Other
factors consideredwere occasional failures cf
natirod strings and reduction of operating costs
while a well is out of service due to a rod
failure. Examples of this latter item are pro-
duction taxes, salt-waterdisposal expenses and
electric power.
It is common field practice to occasionally producing rate is the most significant. Average
replace only a portion of a rod string, partic- values of the remaining variables were, there-
ularly for tapered rod strings. If the location fore, determined for each group of wells.
SPE 3470
of rod failures in a well indicates that re-
placing only a portion of the rod string might
eliminate the failures, Eq. 2 can be used to
justify a partial sucke~rod string replacement.
The cost of the partial string and the antici-
pated fsilure interval of the new composite
string are substitutedin the equation, all
other variables being unchanged. This procedure
is mathematicallycorrect for determfig the
optimum point to make a partial replacement;
however, since the balance of the string is not
new, the anticipatedcost savings depicted on
Fig. 2 will be reduced somewhat.
Direct applicationof Eq. 2 was found very
useful for specific unusual circumstances;how-
ever, it was judged to be impractical for
routine field use. Means were therefore inves-
tigated of compromisingthe accuracy of direct
solution of this equation, for a simple, more
practicsl scheme for field application.
DEVELOPMENT OF GRAPHICAL TECHNIQUE
A graphicsl method for applying the optimum
sucker-rodreplacement concept was thought most
desirable. The first step in the development
of a graphical technique was to simplify Eq. 2.
Eq. 3 was developed, as shown in the Appendix,
------
by assigning average numeric values to seve~-d
of the variables of Eq. 2. It was assumed that
wells are out of service an average of 16 hours
per rcxifailure. In the area studied this
appeared to be the most probable downtime
period. It was SJ.SOassumed that no expense
reduction results from a well being out of
service due to a rod failure. There is slways
some cost reduction; however, in most practical
situationsthe error introducedby this assump-
tion is insignificant. The initial failure
frequency expectationof a new rod string was
assumed to be l/21+failures per month (a failure
interval of 24 months per failure). A net
interest of 0.875 was assumed, and an interest
rate of 8.o percent was used. The salvage value
of replaced rods was ignored in developing the
graphical technique. This is normally a small
percentage of new rod string price.
Grouping of Wells for Analysis
Our midcontinent area operationswere
analyzed, and wells having similar producing
characteristicswere grouped for additional
study. Wells in these groups were approximately
the same depth and completed in the same forma-
- .
tions. tianyof these groiipa .-..4
.+.A nr
.oLLD&w..=.+ ~arge
unitized secondary recovery projects and others
encompassedan entire field.
Of the independentvariables of Eq. 3, oil
SPE -..
3/!470 MASTON L. POWERS
Average rod strings were ascertained. This
required determining average pump depths and
average rod taper designs. With this data,
average rod replacement costs were computed fox
each group. Well servictiginvoices were then
analyzed, and average well servicing costs for
rod failures were calculated for each group of
wells. Average sucker rod lives were estimated
These ranged from 4 to 7 years. Some lightly
Ioaded rod strings will last considerably
longer than ? years; however, these do not
represent the wells for which this optimization
will have the most value. Finally, the average
crude oil price for each group was computed.
Table 1 is a tabulation of averaged variable
data for 11 of the well groups.
Group Failure Interval Vs Producing
Rate Curves
The average values of the variables for
each group of wells were substitutedinto Eq. 3
Values for failure intervel (at the opttium
replacementpoint) were thus calculatedfor
various oil producing rates. From this data
graphs of failure intervel (M) vs oil producing
rate (Q) were prepared for each well group.
Fig. 3 is a semple curve for Group 1. The
curve for each group was a line of minute
curvature. Since costs for complete rod string
were substitutedin Eq. 3, these curves apply
only to full string replacement.
The graphs representingthe various groups made only for decisions concerning the replace-
were compared end it was observed that many
nearly coincided. This occurred because many
circumstanceswere similar; and where there
were significantdifferences they tended to
compensate. For example, a deep well is more
costly to service than a shallow well; however, multiplying factor to correct the optimum point
a replacement rod string also costs more. Thes failure interval for a full rod string to a
can be seen to be compensatingfactors in Eq. 3
The curves for the various well groups did ftiure interval for a partial replacementto
not pass through the origin, but rather had
p~~itive ~m.t.ercept.s
of the vertical axis. At
the intercept fsilure frequency, rod replacement puted from Eq. ~, found in tne Appendix. From
can be justified on the basis of reduced well
servickg expense without regauxito oil pro-
ducing rate.
The similarity of the graphs of many well
groups indicated that the fields studied could
be representedby considerablyfewer curves,
covering more inclusive areas. The well groups
were thus compiled into five producing areas,
and the variable data was averaged for each
area. This data is tabulated in Table 2. The
data was then substitutedinto Eq. 3, and value
d ~,~recal-111~+.d
of failuz-e~-~terv .-.— . . . .
for VariOUS
producing rates, as was done with the well
groups. Graphs of failure titerval vs oil
producing rate were tinenprepared for each of
the five producing areas. These are illustrated
in Figs. 4 and 5. Three curves were required to
represent Ol&homa fields and one curve each
represents Kansas and Illinois Basin fields.
The area curves were compared to the individual
well group curves and were found to approxi-
mately coincide with the average of the group
curves. Substitutingthe five area curves for
the more numerous group curves obviously re-
suited ti tine10ss of some acciti=acy;
howwr,
this was outweighed by making this technique
more readily applied in the field.
Use of Area Curves
Use of the area rod-replacementcurves is
very simple. Since the ordinate of the curves
representsthe failure interval at the optimum
replacementpoint, one merely selects the
appropriate curve and reads the failure intervsl
correspondingto the producing rate of a well.
This is then compared to the rcxifailure
history of the well. If the-observedfailure
interval is less than the interval obtained
from the curve, the rod string should be re-
placed when the next failure occurs.
ExtendinR Graphical Methods to
Partial String Replacement
Application of the graphical method, as
described in the previous paragraph, cen be
ment of complete rod strings. Means of exLend-
ing this method to partial rod string replace-
ment decisions were, therefore, explored. It
was desired to keep calculationsas simple as
possible to facilitate field application. A
partisl string failure interval was the approach
taken. The partial replacementfactor (ratio of
the failure interval for a complete replacement
at the optimum replacementpoint) can be com-
Eq. 4 it cen be seen that the partial replace-
ment factor for a given fractional replacement
is influencedby both oil producing rate and
,,. ‘.A1.. ,.h.me + A.++fi to = ~~&_u~@
me four ‘WiiiUUAca ~AAad.e.Aw.&.
area.
Fartiai replacementfactors a“erewnputed
and tabulated for each of the five areas at
various oil producing rates and for various
fractional replacements. From this data, plots
of partial replacementfactor vs percent re-
placement were prepared for each of the five
producing areas for an oil producing rate of
20 BOPD. This rate is most representativeof
the wells to which this method was applied.
Except for Area 2, these curves fall within the
narrow envelope shown in Fig. 6. This envelope
 OPTIMIZATIONOF SUI ER ROD REPLACMIMNT Srli347(

was approximatelybisected by the curve for sufficientlydamaged that failures persist.

Area 3. The curve for Area 2 fell somewhat
above the other curves. The narrowness of the Coupling breaks and unscrewed rods should
envelope indicates that the characteristicarea not be regarded as failures in sucke~rod
-~..l.fi ~-n+ r-lapici~p-~e
~-cpLatie-A. --- These two t+ypesof
variables do not significantlyaffect the par-
tial replacement factor. ‘RIus,separate partiti failures are a result of improper rod makeup
replacement factor data were not provided for practices. Instances of unscrewed rods can be
each of the five producing areas. prevented by proper makeup. If application of
proper makeup does not remedy coupling breaks,
Because the Area 3 curve approximately the couplings can be replaced on the used rod
bisected the Fig. 6 curve envelope, this area string. Pin failures are also a result of
was considered representativeof all.fields improper rod makeup practices. However, if
studied. Curves of partial.replacementfactor applying proper makeup does not abate chronic
vs percent replacement for various producing pin breaks in a well, they should be counted as
rates were prepared for this area. These curve: rod failures (just as body breaks) in making
are presented h Fig. 7. The wide envelope sucke~rod replacementdecisions. This type
these curves present gdicates that oil pro- of behavior can result from prior makeup
ducing rate has a much greater influence on practices that have damaged the pins so that
partial replacement factor than the characte~ they are the weakest link in the sucker rod
istic area variables. Fig. 7 was therefore chain.
used for determiningpartial replacementfactor[
in all areas. Sucker-rod failure history must be avsil-
able to utilize the optimum replacementtech-
Application of the graphical method to a nique. To assure the availabilityof failure
well for which a partial rod string replac~ data, we have initiated a computer prepared
ment is being contemplatedcan now be made. monthly Well Servicing SummqY report. Copies
The partial replacement factor (P), correspond- of this report are sent to everyone responsible
nl3,-I
ing to the percent replacement and oil producin~ for rlakmg rod ZWya=.e..,”...man+. dori .si nns
------------ , This rod
rate of the studied well, is selected from Fig. failure history must be analyzed to determine
7. The failure interval (M), corresponding the current rod failure interval of a well. No
to the oil producing rate of the well, is next significancecan be placed on one rod failure;
obtained from the appropriatearea curve on Fig and isolated singular rod failures (greaterthan
4 or Fig. 5. The product, M’ = MP, is then 1 year apart) should be ignored in determ~
computed and this prcduct is compared to the failure interval. Two rod failures do not
rod failure history of the well, as in the case necessarily reflect the failure frequency that
of a complete rod string replacementdecision. should be expected. At least three, but not
more than four, failures are needed to determine
To be mathematicallycorrect, the quantity the failure interval and make a sound replace-
7..----+1?
‘:percentrepLaGeLjLGJIU~rk~ered +1-1+.n
u..” WC.
.-~. 7, ment decision.
should be the percent of total rod string cost
rather than percent of total rod string length. It has been observed from practical appli-
For tapered rod strings these will normally be cation of the optimizationtechnique that
different numbers. Use of percent of rod partial rod string replacementscan normally
string length is recommended,however, for be justified by the time sufficientdata is
routine field application. The refinement of available to identify a failure problem. Excep-
calculatingpercent of cost would not usually tions to this trend occur at low oil producing
be justified. rates, in deep wells and for high percentage
replacements.
FIELD APPLICATION OF OPTIMIZATIONTECHNIQUE
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
It must be emphasized that the foregoing
developmentpertains to replacementdecisions I would like to express my appreciationto
for fatigued sucker rods. If a specific Contfientsl Oil Co. for permission to prepare
problem is causing rod failures in a well, this and present tJnispaper. The assistame of?. ?’.
problem should first be resolved. If such em- Ndcker is gratefully aclmowledged.
ditions as excessive rod stress, pump stickinge
fluid pounding, severe corrosion, or improper NOMENCLATURE
rod makeup are present, there is no assurance
that a new rod string will perform any better A= price of replacementrod string (less
than the one in use. The technique developed salvage value of replaced rods), dollar
in this paper should be applied only if a B= price of oil, dol.lars/bbl
mechanical condition cannot be identified as c = average well-servichg cost per rod fail-
the cause of rod failures or if a problem is ure, dollars
discovered and corrected and the rods have been F= fraction of rods to be replaced,
 dimensionless
G=net interest
H=average downtime per rod failure, hours
i=interest rate, percent
j= anticipated economic life of a rod
string, years
M= time interval between rod failures at
economic replacementpoint (for a com-
plete rod string), months
M’ = time interval between rod failures at Q
M
c+w&=Q- .“” (A-1)
economic replac~ent petit (for a par- [ 1
tial rod string), months
N= anticipated time interval between rod Solved for (M), Eq. (1) becomes:
failures of a new rod string, months
P= partial replacementfactor, dimensionless &l
Q= oil prcducing rate, B/D 12N C + 24
Ri-j . capital recovery factor at (i) interest M= [ J .. (A-2)
rate and (j) interest periods
A..-A.
-.A.k7
UV* fiP
v= variable operating cost, Uutiti-=z ..
oil

Simplified @ timum ReplacementEquation

1. Mood, A. M. and Graybil.1,F. A.: Intro- Assumptions made were as follows: G=

duction to the Theory of Statistics,2nd 0.875, H =-16 hours, i = 8 percent, N = 24
cd., McGraw-Hill Book Cp., New York (1963). months and V = O. Eq. 2 becomes
2. ‘IImesen,H. G. and Fabrycky, W. J.: En.gi-
neeri.n.g
Economy, 3rd cd., Prentice-Hall, 24(12C + 705)
‘= 24AR8-j +12c+7QB ““”” (A-3)
Inc., Englewood Cliffs, N.J. (1964).
3. Bull., API, lWIL, 1st cd., American
~oleum Institute, Dallas (1967). Partial Replacement Factor Equation

APPENDIX Partial replacementfactor (p) was defined

Development of Equations
Optimum Sucker Rod ReplacementEquation
Basis of optimization: annual capital cost
ss M’/M. It was assumed that N = 24 for a
compositerod string. !l’hus~Eq. 3 can be
applied. Using Eq. 3 this ratio becomes
24~8-j + 12C + 7QB
P . . . . (A-4)
= ~R8_j + lzc + 7QB .
 TABLE 1 - TABULATIONOF WELL GROUP VARIABLE DATA

Avg. Depth
Ss!2!I! (Feet) & & & &
1 4,500 2,359 3.00 180 6

2 4,400 2,288 3.20 210 6

3 3,100 1,562 2.84 150 6

4 8,800 4,576 3.25 215 6

5 7,200 3,744 3.30 185 7

6 5,200 2,704 3.30 160 7

7 4,900 2,548 3.25 160 7

8 3,100 1,562 3.30 95 5

9 3,600 1,814 3.34 100 5

10 3,700 1,865 3.17 110 5

11 2,700 1,400 3.27 140 4

TABLE 2 - TABULATIONOF PRODUCINGAREA VARIABLE DATA

Avg. Depth
Area (Feet) .& & & &
1. Okla. (1) 4,500 2,359 3.00 180 6

2. Okla. (2) 8,,000 4,160 3.30 200 6

3. Okla. (3) 5,100 2,652 3,30 160 7

4. Kansas 3,300 1,665 3.30 100 5

5. 111. Basin 2,800 1,400 3.27 140 4

 /

Fig. 1 - Generalized sucker rod failure

frequency curve.

oPTIMUM

CAPITALCOST
-—..-. .- / I ~
OF REPLACEMLNi

OIL PRODUCINGR;TE (&)- BBL./&;

TIME
Fig. 3 - Well Group 1 failure interval
Fig. 2 - Generalized operating cost curve vs producing rate.
of ~ ~uc~e~ ~~~ ~frir!cj.
 olLPRODUCING
RATE(Q)- BBL./DAy olL PRODUCINGRm (d- BBL./DAy
.~i”,!3. ~ . Fa~~Ure!~t~rval vs producing Fig. 5 - Failure interval vs producing
rate curves - Kansas and
rate curves - Oklahoma areas.
Illinois basin.

I
\ An
-r”
Qrmn
““m “

o
0 20 40 60 80 1~
PERCENT REPLACEMENT

Fig. 7 - Partial replacement

Fig. 6 - Envelope of partial
factor curves for various
replacement factor curves
uroducing rates, avera9e of
for various producing areas
all areas.
at 20 bbl/Day oil producin9
rate.