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PROBABILITY AND COUNTING TECHNIQUES

“KEY CONCEPTS AND FORMULAS”

(A) SETS
1. DEFINITION OF A SET: A set is a well-defined collection of distinct objects, called the elements or
members of the set. One way of describing a set is by listing its elements in a “Roster.”

For example: A = {a, e, i, o, u}; X = {0, 8, 2, 3, 7, 10}; etc.

NOTE: When the list is extensive and the pattern is obvious, an ellipsis may be used.

For example: B = {a, b, c, …, z}.

NOTE: The above form is also called the Tabular Form of the Set. The elements of a set are separated by
commas and are enclosed in brackets { }.

2. SUBSET: A is a subset of B if every element in set A is also in set B. The notation is A ⊆ B. NOTE:
Every set is a subset of itself, i.e., A ⊆ A, where A is any set.

3. NULL OR EMPTY SET: The null or empty set is the set with no elements. The notation is ∅ or { }.

NOTE: The empty set is a subset of every set, i.e., ∅ ⊆ A, where A is any set.

4. UNIVERSAL SET: The UNIVERSAL SET, U, is the set that contains all possible elements under
consideration in a problem.

5. NUMBER OF SUBSETS OF A SET: If a set contains “N” elements then the number of subsets is
equal to 2N and the number of proper subsets is equal to 2N - 1.

6. POWER SET: The set of all the distinct subsets of a set A is called the power set of A. The notation is
P(A). Thus, if n(A) = N, then n(P(A)) = 2N, where A is any finite set.

7. UNION OF SETS: The union of sets A and B is the set of all elements which are either in A or in B.
The notation is A ∪ B. Thus A ∪ B = {x | x ∈ A or x ∈ B or x ∈ both A and B}.

8. INTERSECTION OF SETS: The intersection of sets A and B is the set of all those elements, which
are common to both A and B. The notation is A ∩ B. Thus A ∩ B = {x | x ∈ A and x ∈ B}.

9. COMPLEMENT OF A SET: Let A be a set and U the universal set. Then the complement of set A
with respect to the universal set U is the difference of sets U and A, i.e., U – A, and is denoted by
_
A/ or A. Thus A/ = {x | x ∈ U and x ∉ A}.

10. DISJOINT SETS: Any two sets A and B are said to be disjoint if and only if A ∩ B = ∅.

11. VENN DIAGRAMS: We can visualize sets and operations on sets and guess the truth of a number of
propositions on sets with the help of geometric diagrams, known as Venn diagrams. A convenient way to
use Venn diagrams is to represent the universal set U by rectangular area in a plane and the elements which
make up U by the points of this area. Simple plane areas bounded by circles or their parts drawn within the
rectangular area can give a simple and instructive picture of sets and operations on sets. We can think of
each set as consisting of all points within the corresponding circle.
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(B) PROBABILITY
1. PROBABILITY EXPERIMENT: A probability experiment refers to any act or process or procedure
that can be performed that yields a collection of outcomes (or results). The outcome of the probability
experiment is not known in advance of the act. For example:

(i) The act of tossing a fair coin.

(ii) The act of rolling a fair die.

(iii) The act of drawing a single card from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards.

2. SAMPLE SPACE: A sample space is defined as the set of all possible outcomes (or results) that can
occur in a probability experiment such that exactly one outcome occurs at a time. The letter S will be used
to denote a sample space. In a Venn diagram, a rectangle will be used to represent a sample space and the
outcomes which make up S by the points drawn within this rectangle.

For example:

(i) If a fair coin is tossed, there are two possible, equally likely outcomes in the sample space that could
occur in this experiment (Heads, H, or Tails, T). Thus S = {H, T}.

(ii) If a fair die is rolled, then S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.

3. EVENT: An event is any collection of results or outcomes of a probability experiment. Thus, an event
may be defined as any subset of the sample space. For example:

(i) If a fair coin is tossed, each of the two individual outcomes (Heads, H, or Tails, T) may be referred to as
events since the sets {H} and {T} are subsets of S = {H, T}.

(ii) If a fair die is rolled, then each of the individual outcomes in this probability experiment is an event
because {1}, {2}, {3}, {4}, {5}, and {6} are subsets of S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.

Similarly, {1, 3, 5} and {2, 4, 6} represent the events of rolling an odd number and an even number on the
die respectively. Note that no two outcomes can occur at the same time.

The event of rolling a 7 on a die is ∅ or { } because ∅ is a subset of S, i.e. ∅ ⊆ S.

Notations: The capital letters such as A, B, C, D, E, etc. will be used to denote an event. In a Venn
diagram, a circle drawn within the rectangle will be used to represent an event and the outcomes which
make up the event by the points of this circle.

4. SIMPLE EVENT: A simple event is an outcome or an event that cannot be further broken down. For
example:

(i) If a fair coin is tossed, each of the two individual outcomes (Heads, H, or Tails, T) may be referred to as
simple events.

(ii) If a fair die is rolled, then each of the individual outcomes {1}, {2}, {3}, {4}, {5}, and {6} is a simple
event.

5. COMPOUND EVENT: A compound event is any event combining two or more simple events. For
example:

(i) If a fair die is rolled, then {1, 3, 5} and {2, 4, 6} may be referred to as compound events.
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6. COMPLEMENT OF AN EVENT: Let E be any event and S the sample space of a probability
experiment. Then the complement
_
of the event E with respect to the sample space S, denoted by E/ or E, consists of those outcomes which are
not in E, i.e.

E/ = {x | x ∈ S and x ∉ E}. For example:

(i) If a fair die is rolled, then {1, 3, 5} and {2, 4, 6} may be referred to as complementary events of each
other.

7. FORMULAS:

Let E and F be any two events from the sample space S of a probability experiment. Let n(E ) = the
number of outcomes in E and n( F ) = the number of outcomes in F . Let P ( E ) denote the probability
of event E occurring, and P ( F ) denote the probability of event F occurring.

n( E )
(i) PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT: P ( E ) = (Classical Probability)
n( S )

(ii) PROBABILITY OF AN IMPOSSIBLE EVENT: If the event E cannot occur, then P ( E ) = 0 .

(iii) PROBABILITY OF A CERTAIN EVENT: If the event E is certain to occur, then P ( E ) = 1 .

(iv) The probability of any event E is a number between 0 and 1, inclusive, i.e. 0 ≤ P ( E ) ≤ 1.

(v) ADDITION RULES:

(a) FOR MUTUALLY EXLUSIVE EVENTS: The events E and F are called mutually exclusive (or
disjoint) if E ∩ F = φ , i.e. they cannot both occur together, i.e. simultaneously. For mutually exclusive
events, we have P ( E ∩ F ) = 0 , and the addition rule is defined as follows:

P ( E or F ) = P ( E ∪ F ) = P ( E ) + P ( F ) .

(b) FOR NON-MUTUALLY EXLUSIVE EVENTS: The events E and F are not mutually exclusive if
E ∩ F ≠ φ , i.e. they both occur simultaneously. In this case, the addition rule is defined as follows:

P ( E or F ) = P ( E ∪ F ) = P ( E ) + P ( F ) − P ( E ∩ F ) .

(vi) MULTIPLICATION RULES:

(a) FOR INDEPENDENT EVENTS: The events E and F are called independent if the occurrence of
one event, say, E does not affect the probability of the occurrence of the other event F . The
multiplication rule is defined as follows:

P (event E occurs in a first trial and event F occurs in a sec ond trial )
= P ( E and F ) = P ( E ∩ F ) = P ( E ).P ( F ) .
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(b) FOR DEPENDENT EVENTS: The events E and F are called dependent if the occurrence of one
event, say, E affects the probability of the occurrence of the other event F . In this case, the multiplication
rule is defined as follows:

P ( E and F ) = P ( E ).P ( F | E ) ,

where F | E is read as “ F given E , ” and P ( F | E ) represents the probability of event F occurring

after it is assumed that event E has already occurred.

8. FORMULAS (CONTINUED):

Let A and B be any two events from the sample space S of a probability experiment. Let n( A) = the
number of outcomes in A and n(B ) = the number of outcomes in B . Let P ( A) denote the probability of
event A occurring, and P (B ) denote the probability of event B occurring.

(i) CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY RULE:

(a) DEFINITION: A conditional probability of an event B represents the probability of event B

occurring after it is assumed that some other event A has already occurred. It is denoted by P ( B | A) .

(b) FORMULA: The conditional probability of event B occurring, given that event A has already
occurred, is denoted by P ( B | A) , and is given by

P ( A ∩ B ) n( A ∩ B )
P( B | A) = = , provided P ( A) ≠ 0 , or n( A) ≠ 0 .
P( A) n( A)
−
(ii) PROBABILITY OF THE COMPLEMENT OF AN EVENT: Let E denote the complement of the
event E with respect to the sample space S . Then

−
P (E ) = The probability that the event E will not occur = 1 − P ( E ) ;

− −
P (E ) = 1 − P ( E ) ; and P (E ) + P( E ) = P( S ) = 1 .

(iii PROBABILITY OF “AT LEAST ONE”:

(a) “At least one” is equivalent to “one or more.”

(b) “None” and “at least one” are complement of each other.

(c) P(at least one) = 1 – P(none) and P(none) = 1 – P(at least one)
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(iv) TESTING FOR INDEPENDENCE:

Two events A and B are “independent” if Two events A and B are “dependent” if

P ( B | A) = P ( B ) P ( B | A) ≠ P ( B )

OR OR

P ( A ∩ B ) = P ( A).P ( B ) P ( A ∩ B ) ≠ P ( A).P ( B )

(v) BAYES’ FORMULA:

P( B) . P( A | B)
P( B | A) = − −
P( B) . P( A | B) + P( B) . P( A | B)

9. FORMULAS FOR ODDS:

Let E be any event from the sample space S of a probability experiment. Let # F = n( E ) = the number
−
(#) for (in favor of) the event E , and # A = n( E ) = the number (#) against the event E . Let
# T = # F + # A = n( S ) = total number (#) of outcomes in S . Then, we have the following definitions:

#F
(a) Odds in favor (for) of the event E = , or F : A , i.e.
#A

P( E )
Odds in favor (for) of the event E = −
;
P( E )

#A
(b) Odds against the event E = , or A : F , i.e.
#F
−
P( E )
Odds against the event E = ;
P( E )

#F
(c) P (E ) = , which is the probability in favor of the event E ;
#T
−
#A
(d) P ( E ) = , which represents the probability against the event E .
#T
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(C) COUNTING TECHNIQUES

(i) FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLE OF COUNTING:

For a sequence of two events (or choices or tasks), say, A and B , in which the first event A can occur m
ways and the second event B can occur n ways, the events A and B together can occur a total of m . n
ways. Here, none of the two events (or choices or tasks) depends on another.

NOTE: The fundamental counting principle easily extends to situations involving more than two events.

(ii) FACTORIAL NOTATION:

If n ≥ 0 denotes an integer, then the factorial symbol n! is defined as follows:

0! = 1 ;

1! = 1 ;

n! = n . ( n − 1) . ( n − 2) ... 3 . 2 . 1

(iii) FACTORIAL RULE:

A collection of n different items (or objects) can be arranged in order n! different ways.
(iv) PERMUTATION RULE (WHEN ITEMS ARE ALL DIFFERENT):

(a) DEFINITION: A permutation is a sequential arrangement of n different (or distinct) items (or
objects) taken r at a time, without replacement or repetition, denoted by n P r , where r ≤ n , in which the
order makes a difference.

n!
(b) FORMULA: Pr = , where r ≤ n .
(n − r )!
n

(c) SHORT-CUT FORMULA: n P r = n . (n − 1) . (n − 2) ... (n − r + 1) , where r ≤ n .

(d) NOTE: n P n = n!

(v) COBINATION RULE:

(a) DEFINITION: A combination is a group (or set or collection or selection) of n different (or distinct)
⎛ ⎞
n
items (or objects) taken r at a time, denoted by n C r or ⎜ ⎟ , where r ≤ n , in which the order is not
⎝r⎠
important.

n!
(b) FORMULA: n C r = , where r ≤ n .
r! . (n − r )!
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(c) NOTE: n C n = 1
(vi) PERMUTATION RULE (WHEN SOME ITEMS ARE IDENTICAL OR SIMILAR OR ALIKE
TO OTHERS):

n items (or objects) with n1 alike, n 2 alike, … , n k alike, the number of permutations of all
If there are
n items (or objects) is given by

n!
, where n1 + n 2 + n3 + … + n k = n .
n1! n 2 ! n3 ! … n k !

(vii) APPLICATIONS OF PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION RULES TO PROBABILITY:

(a) The probability of a permutation (arrangement) is given by

the number of ways forming the permutation

the total number of arrangements

(b) The probability of a selection (combination) is given by

the number of ways of making that selection

the total number of selections

(viii) AN USEFUL FORMULA ON SIMPLE RANDOM SAMPLING:

(a) DEFINITION OF A SIMPLE RANDOM SAMPLE:

A sample of size n from a population of size N is obtained through simple random sampling if every
possible sample of size n has an equally likely chance of occurring. The sample is then called a simple
random sample.

NOTE: In the above definition, the sample is always a subset of the population with n< N.

(b) FORMULA: The number of different simple random samples of size n from a population of size N
is defined as a combination of N objects by selecting n at a time without replacement, and is given by
the following formula:

N!
C n= , where n < N .
n! . ( N − n)!
N