Nama : Isya Nafia

NPM : 0520124012
Kelas : RegB2-C

McDonald vs. Burger King

 Usually I go to McDonald or Burger King for fast food. Basically I really think they are very similar
for me. My decision is based on where I had dinner at last time.
 If I chose McDonald last time, I will choose it again this time with 0.3 probability and choose
Burger King with 0.7 probability.
 If I chose Burger King last time, I will go there with 0.1 probability and go to McDonald with 0.9.
 Construct transition probability matrix.
 Today I ate in Burger King, how is the probability the day after tomorrow?
Suppose I go to eat fast food once every day. Calculate the probability that the day after
tomorrow (3rd day) I will eat:
- in McDonald
- In Burger King
 Find the steady state probabilities

Jawaban:

NT
LT
MCD BK
MCD 0.3 0.7
BK 0.9 0.1

 Persamaan Linear

Langkah 1
π1 = 0.3π1 + 0.9π2
π2 = 0.7π1 + 0.1π2
π1 + π2 = 1

Langkah 2
-0.7π1 + 0.9π2 = 0
0.7π1 - 0.9π2 = 0
π1 + π2 = 1

Langkah 3
-0.7π1 + 0.9π2 = 0  0.7π1 = 0.9π2
π1 = 1.285π2
 Langkah 4
π1 + π2 = 1
1.285π2 + π2 = 1
2.285π2 = 1
π2 = 0.437 = 0.44

Langkah 5
π1 + π2 = 1
π1 + 0.437 = 1
π1 = 1 - 0.437
π1 = 0.562 = 0.56

 Penyelesaian menggunakan Lingo

- Syntax

- Hasil
  Penyelesaian menggunakan Excel

States
Stages
MCD BK
1 1,00 0,00
2 0,30 0,70
3 0,72 0,28
4 0,47 0,53
5 0,62 0,38
6 0,53 0,47
7 0,58 0,42
8 0,55 0,45
9 0,57 0,43
10 0,56 0,44
11 0,57 0,43
12 0,56 0,44
13 0,56 0,44 steady state
14 0,56 0,44 probabilities
15 0,56 0,44
16 0,56 0,44
17 0,56 0,44
18 0,56 0,44
19 0,56 0,44
20 0,56 0,44

Maka nilai dari,

MCD = π1 = 0.562 (LINGO & Persamaan) = 0.56 (Excel)

BK = π2 = 0.437 (LINGO & Persamaan) = 0.44 (Excel)