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The following table contains Japanese yen to dollar

exchange rate #4554


The following table contains Japanese yen to dollar exchange rate data that were published in
issues of Risk magazine. Each period is three months. Spot rate is the actual spot exchange
rate prevailing at the start of a period. Fonoard rate is the three-month forward exchange rate
prevailing at the start of a period. Forecast rate is the forecast made by the Industrial Bank of
Japan at the start of a period for the spot exchange rate at the start of the next period (that is,
the forecast for three months later). To illustrate, at the beginning of the third period, the actual
spot exchange rate was 152.750, the three-month ahead forward rate was 153.600, and the
rate forecast by the Industrial Bank for the start of the fourth period was 151. The actual spot
exchange rate that was realized at the start of the fourth period was 149.400. Based on the root
mean squared error, was the Industrial Bank of Japan able to outperform the forward rate? (Do
the calculations for the percentage forecast error.) You are also given that the spot rate realized
three months after the last forecast given in the table was 139.25.
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The following table contains Japanese yen to dollar exchange rate

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