January 26, 2021

International Monetary Fund

World Economic Outlook

January 2021

World Economic Outlook Update

This datafile includes tables, charts, and underlying data from the January 2021 World Economic
Outlook Update. When using the data, please refer to the
IMF, World Economic Outlook Update, January 2021.

Please submit any questions using WEO Data Question Form

 International Monetary Fund
World Economic Outlook Update

January 2021

Table of Contents

Figures and Tables

Selected Economies Real GDP Growth
Table 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
Figure 1. Divergent Recoveries: WEO Forecast for Advanced Economies and Emerging Market and Deve
Figure 2. Contributions of Consumption and Investment to Global GDP Growth
Figure 3. Global Activity Indicators
Figure 4. GDP Losses Relative to Pre-COVID by Region
Figure 5. Scenario Figure: Real GDP
Figure 6. Bankruptcies
ry Fund
k Update

d Emerging Market and Developing Economies

owth
World Economic Outlook, January 2021 Update

Selected Economies Real GDP Growth

(Percent change)
Difference from October
Estimate Projections 2020 WEO Projections 1/
2019 2020 2021 2022 2021 2022
Argentina –2.1 –10.4 4.5 2.7 –0.4 0.2
Australia 1.9 –2.9 3.5 2.9 0.5 0.1
Brazil 1.4 –4.5 3.6 2.6 0.8 0.3
Canada 1.9 –5.5 3.6 4.1 –1.6 0.7
China 6.0 2.3 8.1 5.6 –0.1 –0.2
Egypt 2/ 5.6 3.6 2.8 5.5 0.0 0.5
France 1.5 –9.0 5.5 4.1 –0.5 1.2
Germany 0.6 –5.4 3.5 3.1 –0.7 0.0
India 2/ 4.2 –8.0 11.5 6.8 2.7 –1.2
Indonesia 5.0 –1.9 4.8 6.0 –1.3 0.7
Iran 2/ –6.5 –1.5 3.0 2.0 –0.2 0.5
Italy 0.3 –9.2 3.0 3.6 –2.2 1.0
Japan 0.3 –5.1 3.1 2.4 0.8 0.7
Kazakhstan 4.5 –2.7 3.3 3.6 0.3 –0.7
Korea 2.0 –1.1 3.1 2.9 0.2 –0.2
Malaysia 4.3 –5.8 7.0 6.0 –0.8 0.0
Mexico –0.1 –8.5 4.3 2.5 0.8 0.2
Netherlands 1.7 –4.1 3.0 2.9 –1.0 0.9
Nigeria 2.2 –3.2 1.5 2.5 –0.2 0.0
Pakistan 2/ 1.9 –0.4 1.5 4.0 0.5 0.0
Philippines 6.0 –9.6 6.6 6.5 –0.8 0.1
Poland 4.5 –3.4 2.7 5.1 –1.9 0.6
Russia 1.3 –3.6 3.0 3.9 0.2 1.6
Saudi Arabia 0.3 –3.9 2.6 4.0 –0.5 0.6
South Africa 0.2 –7.5 2.8 1.4 –0.2 –0.1
Spain 2.0 –11.1 5.9 4.7 –1.3 0.2
Thailand 2.4 –6.6 2.7 4.6 –1.3 0.2
Turkey 0.9 1.2 6.0 3.5 1.0 –0.5
United Kingdom 1.4 –10.0 4.5 5.0 –1.4 1.8
United States 2.2 –3.4 5.1 2.5 2.0 –0.4

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, January 2021 Update.
Note: The selected economies account for approximately 83 percent of world output.
1/ Difference based on rounded figures for the current and October 2020 WEO forecasts.
2/ Data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis.
World Economic Outlook, January 2021 Update

Table 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections

(Percent change, unless noted otherwise)
Year over Year
Difference from October Q4 over Q4 2/
Estimate Projections 2020 WEO Projections 1/ Estimate Projections
2019 2020 2021 2022 2021 2022 2020 2021
World Output 2.8 –3.5 5.5 4.2 0.3 0.0 –1.4 4.2
Advanced Economies 1.6 –4.9 4.3 3.1 0.4 0.2 –3.9 4.6
United States 2.2 –3.4 5.1 2.5 2.0 –0.4 –2.1 4.0
Euro Area 1.3 –7.2 4.2 3.6 –1.0 0.5 –6.8 5.8
Germany 0.6 –5.4 3.5 3.1 –0.7 0.0 –5.3 5.2
France 1.5 –9.0 5.5 4.1 –0.5 1.2 –8.2 7.4
Italy 0.3 –9.2 3.0 3.6 –2.2 1.0 –8.3 4.2
Spain 2.0 –11.1 5.9 4.7 –1.3 0.2 –9.8 7.1
Japan 0.3 –5.1 3.1 2.4 0.8 0.7 –2.3 2.7
United Kingdom 1.4 –10.0 4.5 5.0 –1.4 1.8 –8.3 6.0
Canada 1.9 –5.5 3.6 4.1 –1.6 0.7 –4.0 3.7
Other Advanced Economies 3/ 1.8 –2.5 3.6 3.1 0.0 0.0 –2.2 4.5
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 3.6 –2.4 6.3 5.0 0.3 –0.1 0.9 3.7
Emerging and Developing Asia 5.4 –1.1 8.3 5.9 0.3 –0.4 3.2 3.8
China 6.0 2.3 8.1 5.6 –0.1 –0.2 6.2 4.2
India 4/ 4.2 –8.0 11.5 6.8 2.7 –1.2 0.6 1.7
ASEAN-5 5/ 4.9 –3.7 5.2 6.0 –1.0 0.3 –3.2 5.2
Emerging and Developing Europe 2.2 –2.8 4.0 3.9 0.1 0.5 –2.7 4.8
Russia 1.3 –3.6 3.0 3.9 0.2 1.6 –4.6 5.3
Latin America and the Caribbean 0.2 –7.4 4.1 2.9 0.5 0.2 –4.8 2.3
Brazil 1.4 –4.5 3.6 2.6 0.8 0.3 –1.9 1.6
Mexico –0.1 –8.5 4.3 2.5 0.8 0.2 –5.4 2.2
Middle East and Central Asia 1.4 –3.2 3.0 4.2 0.0 0.2 ... ...
Saudi Arabia 0.3 –3.9 2.6 4.0 –0.5 0.6 –3.1 3.5
Sub-Saharan Africa 3.2 –2.6 3.2 3.9 0.1 –0.1 ... ...
Nigeria 2.2 –3.2 1.5 2.5 –0.2 0.0 ... ...
South Africa 0.2 –7.5 2.8 1.4 –0.2 –0.1 –6.2 2.8
Memorandum
Low-Income Developing Countries 5.3 –0.8 5.1 5.5 0.2 0.0 ... ...
World Growth Based on Market Exchange Rates 2.4 –3.8 5.1 3.8 0.3 0.0 –2.0 4.3
World Trade Volume (goods and services) 6/ 1.0 –9.6 8.1 6.3 –0.2 0.9 ... ...
Advanced Economies 1.4 –10.1 7.5 6.1 0.4 1.0 ... ...
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 0.3 –8.9 9.2 6.7 –1.0 0.8 ... ...
Commodity Prices (US dollars)
Oil 7/ –10.2 –32.7 21.2 –2.4 9.2 –5.4 –27.6 13.5
Nonfuel (average based on world commodity import weights) 0.8 6.7 12.8 –1.5 7.7 –2.0 15.4 2.0
Consumer Prices
Advanced Economies 8/ 1.4 0.7 1.3 1.5 –0.3 –0.1 0.5 1.5
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 9/ 5.1 5.0 4.2 4.2 –0.5 –0.1 3.2 3.8
London Interbank Offered Rate (percent)
On US Dollar Deposits (six month) 2.3 0.7 0.3 0.4 –0.1 –0.1 ... ...
On Euro Deposits (three month) –0.4 –0.4 –0.5 –0.6 0.0 –0.1 ... ...
On Japanese Yen Deposits (six month) 0.0 0.0 –0.1 –0.1 –0.1 –0.1 ... ...
Note: Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during October 23--November 20, 2020. Economies are listed on the basis of economic size. The
aggregated quarterly data are seasonally adjusted. WEO = World Economic Outlook.
1/ Difference based on rounded figures for the current and October 2020 WEO forecasts. Countries whose forecasts have been updated relative to October 2020 WEO forecasts account for
90 percent of world GDP measured at purchasing-power-parity weights.
2/ For World Output, the quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 90 percent of annual world output at purchasing-power-parity weights. For Emerging Market and
Developing Economies, the quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 80 percent of annual emerging market and developing economies' output at purchasing-power-
parity weights.
3/ Excludes the Group of Seven (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and euro area countries.
4/ For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and GDP from 2011 onward is based on GDP at market prices with fiscal year 2011/12 as a base year.
5/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam.
6/ Simple average of growth rates for export and import volumes (goods and services).
7/ Simple average of prices of UK Brent, Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil. The average price of oil in US dollars a barrel was $41.29 in 2020; the assumed price, based on
futures markets (as of January 4, 2021), is $50.03 in 2021 and $48.82 in 2022.
8/ The inflation rate for the euro area is 0.9% in 2021 and 1.2% in 2022, for Japan is --0.1% in 2021 and 0.5% in 2022, and for the United States is 2.1% in 2021 and 2022, respectively.
9/ Excludes Venezuela.
 over Q4 2/
Projections
2022
3.7
1.9
2.0
2.0
1.7
2.0
2.3
2.0
1.6
1.9
2.7
1.9
5.4
6.4
6.0
7.8
6.1
3.0
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.4
...
4.0
...
...
0.6

...
3.1
...
...
...

–2.2
–0.1

1.6
3.7

...
...
...
s of economic size. The

O forecasts account for

rging Market and

purchasing-power-

year.

ssumed price, based on

022, respectively.
World Economic Outlook, January 2021 Update

Figure 1. Divergent Recoveries: WEO Forecast for Advanced Economies and Emerging Market and Developing Economies
(Index, 2019:Q4 = 100)

China (Jan. China (Jan. AEs (Jan. AEs (Jan. EMDEs exclEMDEs excluding China (Jan. 2020 WEO Update)
2019:Q4 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
2020:Q1 90.2 101.7 98.0 100.4 99.3 100.8
2020:Q2 102.3 103.1 88.4 100.9 84.7 101.8
2020:Q3 104.3 104.5 96.2 101.4 95.0 102.8
2020:Q4 106.2 105.9 96.3 101.8 97.9 103.7
2021:Q1 107.2 107.6 96.9 102.2 98.8 104.9
2021:Q2 108.3 109.1 98.4 102.6 99.7 105.9
2021:Q3 109.4 110.6 99.7 102.9 100.7 107.0
2021:Q4 110.7 112.1 100.7 103.3 101.6 108.0
2022:Q1 112.4 101.3 102.4
2022:Q2 114.2 101.7 103.3
2022:Q3 115.9 102.2 104.7
2022:Q4 117.4 102.6 106.0
World Economic Outlook, January 2021 Update

Figure 2. Contributions of Cons

(Percentage points, year over y

2017:Q1
2017:Q2
2017:Q3
2017:Q4
2018:Q1
2018:Q2
2018:Q3
2018:Q4
2019:Q1
2019:Q2
2019:Q3
2019:Q4
2020:Q1
2020:Q2
2020:Q3
Figure 2. Contributions of Consumption and Investment to Global GDP Growth
(Percentage points, year over year)

China privaChina inve AEs privateAEs invest Other EMDEOther EMDETotal priva World GDP growth
1.013 0.614 0.655 0.333 0.583 0.235 3.433 3.968
1.032 0.760 0.669 0.566 0.856 0.100 3.984 4.087
1.014 0.635 0.655 0.377 0.722 0.374 3.778 4.384
0.967 0.657 0.698 0.425 0.676 0.434 3.856 4.514
0.330 0.908 0.650 0.424 0.867 0.633 3.812 4.513
0.299 0.691 0.658 0.205 0.702 0.560 3.116 4.322
0.216 0.770 0.627 0.271 0.739 0.498 3.120 3.872
0.179 0.646 0.523 0.334 0.570 0.361 2.614 3.422
0.707 0.408 0.501 0.211 0.517 0.095 2.438 3.365
0.605 0.525 0.533 0.371 0.545 0.076 2.655 3.219
0.555 0.445 0.567 0.262 0.620 -0.165 2.284 3.171
0.408 0.589 0.433 0.261 0.700 -0.141 2.250 3.089
-1.191 -1.864 -0.492 0.064 0.331 -0.226 -3.378 -1.911
-0.719 0.894 -3.851 -1.243 -2.583 -2.050 -9.551 -8.931
-0.284 1.627 -1.320 -0.408 -1.040 -0.403 -1.827 -1.935
World Economic Outlook, January 2021 Update

Figure 3. Global Activity Indicators

(Three-month moving average, annualized percent change; deviations from 50 for manufacturing PMI, unless noted otherwise)

Industrial Monthly wor

Manufacturing PMI: New orders
2019m1 2.0 100.3 -0.1
2019m2 1.8 99.2 0.1
2019m3 2.0 100.1 0.0
2019m4 1.8 99.3 0.2
2019m5 2.0 100.1 -0.4
2019m6 1.6 98.4 -0.9
2019m7 1.6 99.9 -0.7
2019m8 1.0 100.2 -0.9
2019m9 0.9 99.3 -0.5
2019m10 0.5 99.9 0.1
2019m11 0.6 99.0 0.5
2019m12 0.6 99.3 0.3
2020m1 -0.3 97.7 0.8
2020m2 -1.3 97.7 -4.8
2020m3 -3.3 94.8 -6.6
2020m4 -8.2 83.3 -18.5
2020m5 -11.1 82.6 -13.6
2020m6 -10.7 89.1 -3.2
2020m7 -5.0 93.4 1.2
2020m8 -1.0 95.4 2.9
2020m9 1.0 98.0 3.7
2020m10 2.4 98.7 4.9
2020m11 4.2 5.1
2020m12 4.5
World Economic Outlook, January 2021 Update

Figure 4. GDP Losses Relative to Pre-COVID by Region

(Current projected 2022 level relative to pre-COVID (January 2020 WEO) forecast, percent difference)

Em. Asia ex -8.018

LAC -6.866
SSA -6.191
MECA -5.206
EMDE -4.552
World -3.709
Em. Eur. -2.608
AE -2.469
China -1.505
United Stat -1.312
World Economic Outlook, January 2021 Update

Figure 5. Scenario Figure: Real GDP

(Percent deviation from baseline)

1. World 2. Advanced Economies 3. Emerging Economies

Upside scenDownside scenario Upside scenDownside scenario Upside scenDownside scenario

2019 0.00 0.00 2019 0.00 0.00 2019 0.00 0.00
2020 0.00 -0.04 2020 0.00 -0.07 2020 0.00 -0.01
2021 0.74 -0.66 2021 1.33 -0.92 2021 0.27 -0.45
2022 0.96 -0.59 2022 1.08 -0.64 2022 0.87 -0.55
2023 0.63 -0.43 2023 0.76 -0.46 2023 0.53 -0.41
2024 0.37 -0.24 2024 0.46 -0.27 2024 0.31 -0.23
2025 0.20 -0.14 2025 0.24 -0.16 2025 0.18 -0.12
World Economic Outlook, January 2021 Update

Figure 6. Bankruptcies
(Index, last prerecession quarter = 100)

The Great Global finanOther recessions

-8 98.63 96.01 94.02
-7 96.64 92.58 97.77
-6 102.06 90.81 98.57
-5 102.04 95.48 97.65
-4 101.83 91.57 99.64
-3 104.10 93.40 97.52
-2 100.12 92.81 100.14
-1 103.77 96.80 100.86
0 100.00 100.00 100.00
1 93.83 109.64 103.68
2 79.32 117.97 105.79
3 79.08 138.09 107.77
4 72.17 126.08 112.71
5 115.00 113.19
6 118.19 115.59
7 109.43 117.47
8 107.59 119.43