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T I M E S
A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION
VOL XXVII No.17 Monday, 26 Feb – 4 Mar 2018 Pgs.22 Rs.20
BAZAR.COM
Bazar.com
Q3 party spoilt!
History repeats itself not because we have missed the lessons from the past, but because our emotions carry us to
extremes from euphoria to the doomsday scenario. But the emotion of greed (read easy money) overpowers our
prudence by evolving newer techniques to dupe the system and the masses that subscribe to it. It has had different
protagonists from C R Bhansali, Harshad Mehta, Ketan
Parekh, 2G, 3G, Coalgate, Mehul Choksi, or Nirav Modi A month back, every investor was concerned about LTCG
impact on stock market.
and each one with a smarter technique than the
previous one. Surely, the system has its eyes covered to 10 years back - Lehman Crisis
be repeatedly exploited by such charlatan thanks to the 8 years back it Greece and problems in Europe
political patronage they enjoy. The result is the PNB
5 years back - US Rate Hike
scam or as many fear more PNBs will surface. NPAs and
loan melas are nothing short of financial misdemeanors 4 years back - Fiscal Deficit
that ought to be punished. Yet they acquire legitimacy 3 years back - Low Earnings
with the blessings of politicians seeking vote banks. The
2 years back - Brexit
market is still licking its PNB wounds but the profused
bleeding continues as newer scams like the Rotomac 1 year ago- Demonetisation
Pen emerged. Marketmen are sure that many more will 6 months back - GST
emerge in coming days.
Today- PNB scam (Nirav Modi)
Although the Q3 results were thematic of an overall
Tomorrow it will be something else.
better performance, the party was spoilt by PNB. While
the earnings recovery theme stays intact, the Q3 report Meanwhile some investors made awesome returns while
card shows that the markets which have been betting on others were worried!!!!
strong corporate profits may be barking up the wrong Equity investors need patience and faith in India’s growth
tree. Though the Q3 harvest season started well, it lost story.
its sheen towards the end. This was led by the disappointments from the heavyweights like State Bank of India, Tata
Motors, Lupin, ONGC etc, while the earnings picture is getting brighter, with the recovery expected to gather pace next
fiscal, Dalal Street had bet big on Q3 delivering a rollicking quarter. That did not happen.
‘Aggregate PAT of the MOSL (Motilal Oswal) universe was up 6.7% YoY against estimate of +15.8%. This poor
performance was mainly due to the PSU banks which are graphing with elevated provisioning requirements and trading
losses in their bond portfolio Metals and mid-caps posted profits ahead of expectations, while Auto, Cement, PSU Banks
and Utilities posted profits below expectation,’ said Gautam Duggad head of research MOSL in a report.
Major earnings surprises came from Tata Steel, Hindustan Unilever, Indian Oil Corporation, Tech Mahindra and Dr.
Reddy's Laboratories. Yet all these winners could not hold their high ground as the party was spoiled by the banking
scams ushering in a crisis of confidence.
Earning disappointments could trickle down to volatile market movements with a downward bias. The heightened
expectations of profit growth did not materialise compelling brokerages to take corrective action. Sahil Kapoor of
TRADING ON TECHNICALS
Weekly Up
Scrip Last Level Level Center Level Level Relative
Reversal Trend
Close 1 2 Point 3 4 Strength
Value Date
Weak Demand Demand Supply Supply
below point point point point
INFOSYS 1156 1120 1128.7 1147.3 1174.7 1220.7 71 1133.8 23-02-18
MPHASIS 909 838 857.7 889.3 940.7 1023.7 68.4 879.8 19-01-18
JINDAL STEEL & POWER 264.70 242 249.2 257.5 272.9 296.6 67.6 259.7 23-02-18
RADICO KHAITAN 353.20 324.1 331.7 345.6 367.1 402.5 66.6 340.5 23-02-18
FDC 287.95 283.1 283.7 287.4 291.7 299.7 65.8 271.5 09-02-18
*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend. Close below
averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility (Up/Down) within Down
Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen. Relative Strength (RS) is statistical
indicator. Weekly Reversal is the value of the average.
Weekly Down
Scrip Last Level Level Center Level Level Relative
Reversal Trend
Close 1 2 Point 3 4 Strength
Value Date
Demand Demand Supply Supply Strong
point point point point above
LAKSHMI VILAS BANK 115.40 104.6 112.3 116.8 119.9 121.3 28.03 122.24 12-01-18
UNION BANK OF INDIA 108.75 94.2 104.1 109.5 114.1 114.8 28.63 120.20 17-11-17
INDIAN OVERSEAS BANK 19.55 16.9 18.7 19.7 20.5 20.6 29.71 20.59 19-01-18
PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK 113.40 96.1 108.5 115.9 120.9 123.4 30.23 139.37 02-02-18
ANDHRA BANK 45.95 40.2 44 46 47.9 47.9 31.85 47.26 29-12-17
*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend. Close below
averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility (Up/Down) within Down
Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen.
BUY LIST
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above
Scrip Last Close Demand point Demand point Demand Point Weak below Supply Point Monthly RS
PUNTER PICKS
Note: Positional trade and exit at stop loss or target whichever is earlier. Not an intra-day trade. A delivery based trade for a possible time frame
of 1-7 trading days. Exit at first target or above.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above, RS- Strength
Weak RS-
Scrip BSE Code Last Close Demand Point Trigger Supply point Supply point
below Strength
- - - - - - - - -
TOWER TALK
Biocon has received 6 observations from USFDA for its Malaysia Plant. Although negative in nature, Biocon has the
resources to mend the shortcomings. Patient investors may take a calculated risk and buy in small quantities
Indian Hotels Company (which owns and operates Taj group of Hotels) has unveiled a strategy to improve its
EBITDA from 17% to 25% by selling its non-core assets. A Big positive.
Idea Cellular has fixed a QIP price for its Rs.3,500 crore proposed issue. This will not only make the company
financially stronger, but will also ensure that the share price rises. Buy.
Ambuja Cements net profit for Q3 rose 93% to Rs.338 crore on 23% increase in net sales to Rs.2712 crore. An
attractive buy.
UCO Bank has admitted that it has an exposure of around Rs.2636 crore to the Nirav Modi group. More skeletons
expected to tumble out: Stay away.
On the back of big expansion by the Railways, wagon companies will see big order inflows. Titagarh Wagons is a
good buy.
DLF is aiming to sell 15000 worth flats in the next 3 to 4 years. It also announced that henceforth it will sell flats only
after they reach an advanced stage of construction. Buy for the long-term.
Instant Holdings, the promoters of KEC International are increasing their stake in the Company. The share is
looking upward. Some news may be on the way. Buy.
Apex Frozen Foods has fallen drastically. The recent results were superb. The share may bounce back by about
Rs.200 in a very short time. A screaming buy.
One of the few shares not cowed down by volatility, Avenue Supermarts (DMart) continues it’s upward albeit
slowly. A very good share in times of turmoil.
BEST BET
STOCK WATCH
By Amit Kumar Gupta
STOCK SCAN
STOCK ANALYSIS
MARKET REVIEW
Market strengthens
By Devendra A Singh
The BSE Sensex ended higher 131.39 points to settle at 34,142.15 and the NSE Nifty closed at 10,491.05 up 38.75 points
for the week ending Friday, 23 February 2018.
Last week’s data released on India’s macro-economic front shows that consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed to 5.07% in
January 2018 from 5.21% in the previous month. In January 2017, CPI inflation was at 3.17%.
Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) fell to 4.70% in January 2018 from 4.96% in the previous month. In January 2017,
CFPI inflation was at 0.61%.
Wholesale Price Inflation (WPI) marked at 2.84% in January 2018 from 3.58% in the previous month. In January 2017 it
was 4.26%.
Primary articles inflation was at 2.37% in January 2018 as compared to 3.86% in December 2017. Manufactured
Products Inflation registered 2.78% for January 2018. For fuel and power segment inflation was at 4.08% in January
2018 as compared to 9.16% in December 2017.
Food inflation registered 3% in January 2018 against 4.72% in the previous month. Vegetable inflation came at 40.77%
in January 2018 against 56.46% in the last month.
The Indian government chaired by the PM Modi has given ex-post facto approval to the modifications carried out in the
Replacement Bill, which replaced the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (Amendment) Bill 2017, and which has been
passed by the Parliament as the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (Amendment) Act, 2018.
The amendment will bring clarity and ensure that the prohibition of certain persons in the resolution process of an
insolvent corporate person does not include unintended persons and the opportunity given to a person whose account is
classified as the non-performing asset is more equitable.
India announced higher import tax on electronics products such as mobile phones and television sets in December 2017
and 40 more items in the budget this month.
MARKET OUTLOOK
FIFTY: FIFTY
By Rupesh Daga
EXPERT EYE
By Vihari
MOL continues to build on its strong position as a Of the 156 stocks recommended between 9 January 2017 and 1
leading diversified Indian chemical company January 2018 (52 weeks), we booked 7-41% profit in 119 stocks,
exporting to 75 countries and servicing 400+ 24 triggered the stop loss of 2-18% while 13 are still open. Out of
marquee clients. Going forward, the capex of 13, 11 stocks are in green & 2 stocks are in nominal red.
Rs.557 crore undertaken over the past five years is If you want to earn like this,
set to fuel further growth with enough capacity to
subscribe to TECHNO FUNDA PLUS today!
support a revenue growth to Rs.2000 crore.
Based on its current going, MOL is likely to post an For more details, contact Money Times on
EPS of Rs.7.5 in FY18 and Rs.10 in FY19. At the 022-22616970/22654805 or moneytimes.support@gmail.com.
CMP of Rs.95.80, the stock trades at a forward P/E Subscription Rate: 1 month: Rs.2500; 3 months: Rs.6000;
of 12.77x on FY18E and 9.58x on FY19E earnings. A 6 months: Rs.11000; 1 year: Rs.18000.
TECHNO FUNDA
By Nayan Patel
BULL’S EYE
FUTURES WATCH
By Vinod Harlalka
Given below are the Top 10 Gainers & Losers in the Futures segment in the February 2018 expiry.
TOP 10 GAINERS
Jan. Exp. February 2018 Expiry Diff.
No. Scrip Closing Open High Low Close %
25-01-18 25-01-18 22-02-18
1 CAN FIN HOMES 442.05 451.85 538.40 400.95 516.90 16.93
2 IDBI BANK 65.25 66.15 74.90 56.10 74.30 13.87
APOLLO HOSPITALS
3
ENTERPRISE 1132.95 1141.45 1249.90 1069.85 1246.35 10.01
4 ASHOK LEYLAND 122.40 123.50 139.25 117.00 132.35 8.13
CHOLAMANDALAM INVESTMENT
5
AND FINANCE COMPANY 1306.30 1326.30 1412.95 1208.65 1377.15 5.42
6 HINDUSTAN ZINC 298.20 306.35 318.95 274.50 313.75 5.21
7 BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES 4628.65 4660.25 4882.90 4398.70 4852.00 4.83
8 BHARAT FORGE 721.50 726.90 783.85 675.00 755.60 4.73
9 COAL INDIA 300.05 293.10 315.00 280.05 312.30 4.08
10 ESCORTS 837.25 842.30 923.20 802.05 870.10 3.92
TOP 10 LOSERS
Jan. Exp. February 2018 Expiry Diff.
No. Scrip Closing Open High Low Close %
25-01-18 25-01-18 22-02-18
1 PC JEWELLER 560.85 567.50 579.15 218.90 327.75 -41.56
2 PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK 180.80 182.80 183.00 111.25 114.80 -36.50
3 IFCI 30.75 31.00 31.30 22.35 22.65 -26.34
4 ALLAHABAD BANK 70.15 70.35 71.05 48.65 52.05 -25.80
5 JAIPRAKASH ASSOCIATES 22.00 22.40 22.40 16.35 16.40 -25.45
6 UNION BANK OF INDIA 141.50 142.60 143.10 105.10 107.50 -24.03
7 BANK OF INDIA 169.65 174.30 174.30 119.40 129.20 -23.84
8 GMR INFRASTRUCTURE 22.85 22.90 23.90 17.20 17.65 -22.76
9 JAIN IRRIGATION SYSTEMS 145.65 147.55 151.25 101.65 112.80 -22.55
10 SYNDICATE BANK 76.85 77.65 78.05 54.20 59.75 -22.25
Disclaimer: Investment recommendations made in Money Times are for information purposes only and derived from sources that are deemed to
be reliable but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Money Times or the analyst/writer does not accept any lia bility for the use of
this column for the buying or selling of securities. Readers of this column who buy or sell securities based on the information in this column are
solely responsible for their actions. The author, his company or his acquaintances may/may not have positions in the above mentioned scrip.
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