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T I M E S
A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION
VOL XXVII No.17 Monday, 26 Feb – 4 Mar 2018 Pgs.22 Rs.20

Markets to remain cautious Now follow us on Instagram, Facebook &


By Sanjay R. Bhatia Twitter at moneytimes_1991 on a daily basis to
get a view of the stock market and the
The prevailing negative sentiment continued to weigh on the happenings which many may not be aware of.
market sentiment as the benchmark indices continued their
downward movement breaking key support levels. Although global market cues were largely positive and gave Indian
markets a positive start, the markets failed to capitalize on these gains until Thursday for lack of follow-up buying
support and selling pressure. However, the markets managed to witness a smart rally on Friday with the start of the
March 2018 series. The FIIs remained net sellers in the cash and derivative segments. The breadth of the market
remained weak amidst higher volumes, which is a negative sign for the markets. Crude prices moved marginally higher
trading between $62-$66, supported by lower U.S. crude inventories. US markets remained volatile with indications of
an immediate rate hike in the next month’s Fed meeting,
affecting market sentiment. On the domestic front, the PNB Believe it or not!
scam continues to spoil the sentiment.
Technically, the prevailing positive technical conditions helped  Chandni Textiles Engineering Industries
the markets end the week on a positive note. The Stochastic, recommended at Rs.36.90 in TT last week,
RSI and KST, are all placed above their respective averages. zoomed to Rs.41.40 fetching 12% returns in
Further the MACD is placed above its average on the weekly just 1 week!
charts. Moreover, the Nifty is placed above its 100-day SMA and  Kulkarni Power & Tools recommended at
200-day SMA. The Nifty’s 50-day SMA is placed above Nifty’s Rs.51.50 in TT last week, zoomed to Rs.56.80
100-day and 200-day SMA. The Nifty 100-day SMA is placed fetching 10% returns in just 1 week!
above Nifty’s 200-day SMA indicating a golden cross breakout.  Ashok Alco-Chem recommended at Rs.113.35
These positive technical conditions would lead to follow-up in TT last week, zoomed to Rs.119.95 fetching
buying support. However, the prevailing negative technical 6% returns in just 1 week!
conditions still hold good and are likely to weigh on the market  JHS Svendgaard Laboratories recommended
sentiment. The Stochastic, KST and RSI are all placed below at Rs.66.35 in SB last week, zoomed to
their respective averages on the weekly charts. Further, the Rs.69.55 fetching 5% returns in just 1 week!
MACD is placed below its average on the daily charts.  Balmer Lawrie & Co. recommended at Rs.233
Moreover, the Nifty is placed below its 50-day SMA, which is a in BB last week, zoomed to Rs.242.15 fetching
short-term negative. These negative technical conditions would 4% returns in just 1 week!
lead to profit booking and selling pressure, especially at higher
levels. The -DI is placed above the +DI line and is placed above (BB – Best Bet; SB – Stock Buzz; TT – Tower Talk)
the 29 level has come off its recent high, indicating sellers are This happens only in Money Times!
covering shorts regularly. However, the ADX line is placed
above 31, indicating that sellers have an upper hand. The Now in its 27th Year
market sentiment remains cautious and tentative. The Nifty continues to trade below the 10585 resistance level.
However, it has managed to sustain above the 10270 level, which augurs well for the markets. Now it is important that
the Nifty moves up and sustains above 10585 for selling pressure to ease. If it fails to sustain, then further selling

A Time Communications Publication 1


pressure is likely and the Nifty could once again move
lower to test the 10270 level followed by the 10000
level. In the meanwhile, the markets would take cues
from news flow on PNB scam, global markets, earnings,
news flow on forthcoming assembly elections, Rupee
and crude prices. Technically, on the upside BSE Sensex
faces resistance at the 34342, 34700, 35221, 35823,
36162, 36269, 36750, 37000 and 37350. On the
downside, the BSE Sensex seeks support at the 34000,
33700, 33055 and 32595. The resistance levels for the
Nifty are placed at 10585, 10666, 10875 and 11009
levels. The Nifty's support is placed at 10423, 10325,
10270, 10000 and 9735 levels.

BAZAR.COM
Bazar.com

Q3 party spoilt!
History repeats itself not because we have missed the lessons from the past, but because our emotions carry us to
extremes from euphoria to the doomsday scenario. But the emotion of greed (read easy money) overpowers our
prudence by evolving newer techniques to dupe the system and the masses that subscribe to it. It has had different
protagonists from C R Bhansali, Harshad Mehta, Ketan
Parekh, 2G, 3G, Coalgate, Mehul Choksi, or Nirav Modi A month back, every investor was concerned about LTCG
impact on stock market.
and each one with a smarter technique than the
previous one. Surely, the system has its eyes covered to 10 years back - Lehman Crisis
be repeatedly exploited by such charlatan thanks to the 8 years back it Greece and problems in Europe
political patronage they enjoy. The result is the PNB
5 years back - US Rate Hike
scam or as many fear more PNBs will surface. NPAs and
loan melas are nothing short of financial misdemeanors 4 years back - Fiscal Deficit
that ought to be punished. Yet they acquire legitimacy 3 years back - Low Earnings
with the blessings of politicians seeking vote banks. The
2 years back - Brexit
market is still licking its PNB wounds but the profused
bleeding continues as newer scams like the Rotomac 1 year ago- Demonetisation
Pen emerged. Marketmen are sure that many more will 6 months back - GST
emerge in coming days.
Today- PNB scam (Nirav Modi)
Although the Q3 results were thematic of an overall
Tomorrow it will be something else.
better performance, the party was spoilt by PNB. While
the earnings recovery theme stays intact, the Q3 report Meanwhile some investors made awesome returns while
card shows that the markets which have been betting on others were worried!!!!
strong corporate profits may be barking up the wrong Equity investors need patience and faith in India’s growth
tree. Though the Q3 harvest season started well, it lost story.
its sheen towards the end. This was led by the disappointments from the heavyweights like State Bank of India, Tata
Motors, Lupin, ONGC etc, while the earnings picture is getting brighter, with the recovery expected to gather pace next
fiscal, Dalal Street had bet big on Q3 delivering a rollicking quarter. That did not happen.
‘Aggregate PAT of the MOSL (Motilal Oswal) universe was up 6.7% YoY against estimate of +15.8%. This poor
performance was mainly due to the PSU banks which are graphing with elevated provisioning requirements and trading
losses in their bond portfolio Metals and mid-caps posted profits ahead of expectations, while Auto, Cement, PSU Banks
and Utilities posted profits below expectation,’ said Gautam Duggad head of research MOSL in a report.
Major earnings surprises came from Tata Steel, Hindustan Unilever, Indian Oil Corporation, Tech Mahindra and Dr.
Reddy's Laboratories. Yet all these winners could not hold their high ground as the party was spoiled by the banking
scams ushering in a crisis of confidence.
Earning disappointments could trickle down to volatile market movements with a downward bias. The heightened
expectations of profit growth did not materialise compelling brokerages to take corrective action. Sahil Kapoor of

A Time Communications Publication 2


Edelweiss said that he expects Nifty EPS of FY18/FY19/FY20 to be Rs.500/Rs.600/Rs.700. We are revising our Nifty
target price for FY19 to 11500 from 12000 giving it a P/E multiple of 16.5 times for one year forward.
Kotak Institutional Equities said that Q3 net profits of its coverage universe of stocks increased 9.3% YoY on an overall
basis compared to expectations of 12% YoY growth from the low base in the year ago.
Importantly, in its coverage universe, 65 stocks beat earning forecast by over 5%, 57 reported adjusted net income in
the -5% and +5% range of estimates and 75 missed estimates by more than 5%. The large loss in SBI due to higher
provisioning was the reason for such a miss. Now, it’s the PNB scam which has overridden the fundamentals creating a
gloomy sentiment that has engulfed the whole market.
The rollover had been easy though the fall from January 2018 rollover to February 2018 roll over was high compared to
the last many months. It is believed that the March 2018 year end and the roll over of positions to the new fiscal may be
at a further low. Time shall reign supreme in these scam ridden times.

TRADING ON TECHNICALS

Slide to pause for Pullback


By Hitendra Vasudeo
Sensex Daily Trend DRV Weekly Trend WRV Monthly Trend MRV
Last Close 34142.15 Down 34509 Up 33446 Up 31222
Last week, the Sensex opened at 34053.94, attained a low at 33554.37 and moved up to a high of 34167.60 before it
finally closed the week at 3142.15 and thereby showed a gain of 131 points on a week-to-week basis. A Hammer has
been formed which suggests that a momentary halt to the fall has been witnessed.
Daily Chart
The low registered on 06/02/2018 was 33482 and since then the volatility has contracted. Last Wednesday and
Thursday saw contract movement with a doji candle. The range was 144 points and 177 points suggested the
contraction of movement from high range of 1038 points
on 06/02/2018.
The sideways movement seen and Friday was a bullish
candle and crossed the 4 days high of 34122 on closing.
Expect a rise towards the next resistance on the daily
chart 34508 to 34666. The DRV is at 34509.
The gap is at 34874-35006 and offers further resistance
at the higher level. The bullish candle of Friday may
enable a rise towards DRV and towards the gap.
Weekly Chart
The weekly chart has formed a Hammer after almost
testing the earlier low of 33482. A hammer suggests that
a momentary pause to the fall and further downside
momentum will continue on a fall and close below 33400.
Rise to the resistance of 34535 and the gap of 34874-35066 is likely to be tested as momentary bias can be up.
The band of movement for fluctuation is 34535-33482.
Weekly higher range as per RTS mechanism is 34355-34968. Weekly support range will be at 33954-33741-33128.
Monthly Chart
The monthly bar/candle shows a lower high and lower low. Bearish candle is already in place and it depends on the
closing of February. Lower High and Lower low is already in place marking a swing top on the monthly chart post the
higher bottom of 31081.
Objective on the monthly chart and candle will be to book profits at higher levels as they pick index and index related
stocks. Resistances on the monthly chart are at 34627 and 35777. Lower range can be between 32999 and 30223.
Yearly Chart

A Time Communications Publication 3


The Centre Points for all the indices must be watched as they could be the likely supports during the year for intra-day/
year correction and for consolidation.
From the yearly chart perspective, it seems that the Sensex and the Nifty are keen to test the Yearly Centre Point of
31547 and 9739 respectively in the near-to-short-term. Consolidation must happen near the Yearly Centre Point in
order for a breakout attempt to sustain above the Yearly Level 3 (L3) as shown in the table. At this point, the indices are
in a correction mode.
Index Dec-17 Level 1 Level 2 Centre Point Level 3 Level 4
Nifty 50 10531 6507 8926 9739 11344 13763
Nifty Bank 25539 12140 20262 23108 28385 36508
S&P BSE Sensex 34057 21266 28957 31547 36648 44338
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 17822 8095 13937 15894 19779 25622
S&P BSE Small-Cap 19231 7268 14452 16857 21636 28820
Trend based on Rate of Change (RoC)
Daily chart:
1-Day trend - Up
3-Day trend - Up
8-Day trend - Down
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1-Week trend - Up A complete guide for Trading and Investments based on Technicals
3-Week trend - Down
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Monthly chart: Support and Resistance
1-Month trend - Down
What you Get?
3-Month trend - Up
1) Weekly Market Outlook of -
8-Month trend - Up  Sensex
Quarterly chart:  Nifty
1-Quarter trend - Up  Bank Nifty
2) Sectoral Review
3-Quarter trend - Up
 Outperforming, Market Performing and Under Performing
8-Quarter trend - Up  Stand Alone Weekly Signal for Up Trend and Down Trend
Yearly chart:  Stock Wise New Addition and Follow Up Chart Comments
1-Year trend - Up  Selection Process Based on Multi Time Frame Trend and RS
3) Multi Time Frame Yearly Chart
3-Year trend - Up  Stock Filtration
8-Year trend - Up  One Annual In Jan-Dec
The Daily ROC trend on 1 and 3 day shows an  From March running Yearly Filtration- March to March
up-trend which suggest pullback attempts. 4) Sectoral View of Strong/Weak/Market Performer indices
Weekly ROC is mixed and shows sideways 5) Weekly Trading Signals
6) Stock Views and Updates every week
volatility. The 1 Month ROC trend is deeply
7) Winners for trading and investing for medium-to-long-term till
down whereas the Quarterly and Yearly are
March 2018
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The range of movement is 17015 and 15776. From 2018 Product Price will be Rs.24000/- for 1-Year
Upside momentum can be resumed on For more details, contact Money Times on
breakout and close above 17015. 022-22616970/4805 or moneytimes.support@gmail.com.

A Time Communications Publication 4


BSE Small-Cap Index
Weekly chart:
1-Week trend - Down
3-Week trend - Up
8-Week trend - Down
A pullback reversal could resume on a close above 18673.
Strategy for the week
Cover short positions at 34142 or below as the opportunity arises. Traders short may maintain the stop loss at 34718.
Down side momentum is below 33480 and sell is below 33480 with the high of the week as the stop loss or 34150
whichever is higher.

WEEKLY UP TREND STOCKS


Let the price move below Center Point or Level 2 and when it move back above Center Point or Level 2 then buy with whatever low
registered below Center Point or Level 2 as the stop loss. After buying if the price moves to Level 3 or above then look to book profits as
the opportunity arises. If the close is below Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Up Trend to Down Trend. Check on
Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Up Trend.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above

Weekly Up
Scrip Last Level Level Center Level Level Relative
Reversal Trend
Close 1 2 Point 3 4 Strength
Value Date
Weak Demand Demand Supply Supply
below point point point point
INFOSYS 1156 1120 1128.7 1147.3 1174.7 1220.7 71 1133.8 23-02-18
MPHASIS 909 838 857.7 889.3 940.7 1023.7 68.4 879.8 19-01-18
JINDAL STEEL & POWER 264.70 242 249.2 257.5 272.9 296.6 67.6 259.7 23-02-18
RADICO KHAITAN 353.20 324.1 331.7 345.6 367.1 402.5 66.6 340.5 23-02-18
FDC 287.95 283.1 283.7 287.4 291.7 299.7 65.8 271.5 09-02-18

*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend. Close below
averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility (Up/Down) within Down
Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen. Relative Strength (RS) is statistical
indicator. Weekly Reversal is the value of the average.

WEEKLY DOWN TREND STOCKS


Let the price move above Center Point or Level 3 and when it move back below Center Point or Level 3 then sell with whatever high
registered above Center Point or Level 3 as the stop loss. After selling if the prices moves to Level 2 or below then look to cover short
positions as the opportunity arises. If the close is above Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Down Trend to Up Trend.
Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Down Trend.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above

Weekly Down
Scrip Last Level Level Center Level Level Relative
Reversal Trend
Close 1 2 Point 3 4 Strength
Value Date
Demand Demand Supply Supply Strong
point point point point above
LAKSHMI VILAS BANK 115.40 104.6 112.3 116.8 119.9 121.3 28.03 122.24 12-01-18
UNION BANK OF INDIA 108.75 94.2 104.1 109.5 114.1 114.8 28.63 120.20 17-11-17
INDIAN OVERSEAS BANK 19.55 16.9 18.7 19.7 20.5 20.6 29.71 20.59 19-01-18
PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK 113.40 96.1 108.5 115.9 120.9 123.4 30.23 139.37 02-02-18
ANDHRA BANK 45.95 40.2 44 46 47.9 47.9 31.85 47.26 29-12-17

*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend. Close below
averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility (Up/Down) within Down
Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen.

A Time Communications Publication 5


EXIT LIST
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above
Scrip Last Close Supply Point Supply Point Supply Point Strong Above Demand Point Monthly RS

HERITAGE FOODS 677 708.06 726 743.94 802 556.1 36.20


BIRLA CORPORATION 873 996.06 1035 1073.94 1200 666.1 38.49
MOTHERSON SUMI SYSTEMS 318.65 330.99 338.77 346.56 371.75 265 39.11
DALMIA BHARAT 2713.70 2736.68 2792.77 2848.87 3030.45 2261.3 40.37
CENTURY TEXTILES & INDUSTRIES 1194 1243.12 1272.50 1301.88 1397 994.1 40.94
BAJAJ AUTO 2988 3153.56 3214.48 3275.39 3472.60 2637.3 41.20
JOHNSON CONTROLS-HITACHI AIR CONDITIONING INDIA 2215 2313.43 2367 2420.57 2594 1859.4 41.21
SUPREME INDUSTRIES 1188 1255.33 1282 1308.67 1395 1029.3 42.07

BUY LIST
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above
Scrip Last Close Demand point Demand point Demand Point Weak below Supply Point Monthly RS

ABBOTT INDIA 5788 5779.19 5677 5574.81 5244 6645.2 63.87


WELSPUN CORP 167.40 165.34 161.12 156.91 143.25 201.1 63.46
FDC 287.95 267.24 258.05 248.86 219.10 345.1 61.30
CHOLAMANDALAM INVESTMENT AND FINANCE COMPANY 1418 1343.87 1318.50 1293.13 1211 1558.9 55.12

PUNTER PICKS
Note: Positional trade and exit at stop loss or target whichever is earlier. Not an intra-day trade. A delivery based trade for a possible time frame
of 1-7 trading days. Exit at first target or above.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above, RS- Strength

Weak RS-
Scrip BSE Code Last Close Demand Point Trigger Supply point Supply point
below Strength
- - - - - - - - -

TOWER TALK
 Biocon has received 6 observations from USFDA for its Malaysia Plant. Although negative in nature, Biocon has the
resources to mend the shortcomings. Patient investors may take a calculated risk and buy in small quantities
 Indian Hotels Company (which owns and operates Taj group of Hotels) has unveiled a strategy to improve its
EBITDA from 17% to 25% by selling its non-core assets. A Big positive.
 Idea Cellular has fixed a QIP price for its Rs.3,500 crore proposed issue. This will not only make the company
financially stronger, but will also ensure that the share price rises. Buy.
 Ambuja Cements net profit for Q3 rose 93% to Rs.338 crore on 23% increase in net sales to Rs.2712 crore. An
attractive buy.
 UCO Bank has admitted that it has an exposure of around Rs.2636 crore to the Nirav Modi group. More skeletons
expected to tumble out: Stay away.
 On the back of big expansion by the Railways, wagon companies will see big order inflows. Titagarh Wagons is a
good buy.
 DLF is aiming to sell 15000 worth flats in the next 3 to 4 years. It also announced that henceforth it will sell flats only
after they reach an advanced stage of construction. Buy for the long-term.
 Instant Holdings, the promoters of KEC International are increasing their stake in the Company. The share is
looking upward. Some news may be on the way. Buy.
 Apex Frozen Foods has fallen drastically. The recent results were superb. The share may bounce back by about
Rs.200 in a very short time. A screaming buy.
 One of the few shares not cowed down by volatility, Avenue Supermarts (DMart) continues it’s upward albeit
slowly. A very good share in times of turmoil.

A Time Communications Publication 6


 IDBI Bank has declared its intention to sell 10% stake to a renowned Singapore based private equity player. There
are chances of a rise in its share price. Risk loving investors may take an exposure.
 Reliance Jio is planning to invest Rs.10,000 crore in U.P (over and above Rs.20,000 crore already invested) in an
attempt to develop the state. Reliance Industries should be a direct beneficiary of the expansion programs. Buy.
 Yes Bank has approved another Rs.3000 crore to
meets its Basil-III Compliance Tier-2 Bonds. This will For the busy investor
ensure further expansion. A fairly good buy. Fresh One Up Trend Daily
 Blackstone group, the world’s largest private equity Fresh One Up Trend Daily is for investors/traders who are
firm is likely to buy 49% stake in office rental keen to focus and gain from a single stock every
business of Indiabull Real Estate for about $ 1.2 bn.
trading day.
A big positive for the Company. BUY
With just one daily recommendation selected from
 Wipro is set to invest Rs.220 crore in Telangana to
stocks in an uptrend, you can now book profit the same
make consumer care products. Positive for the
company. Buy in small lots. day or carry over the trade if the target is not met. Our
review over the next 4 days will provide new exit levels
 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC)
while the stock is still in an uptrend.
contemplates to boost the output from domestic oil
field production and is hiring some of the best This low risk, high return product is available for online
technology companies in the world for this purpose. subscription at Rs.2500 per month.
A good long-term buy. Contact us on 022-22616970 or email us at
 Lupin has received the final approval from the US moneytimes.suppport@gmail.com for a free trial.
health regulator to market its Oseltamivir phosphate
tablets or oral suspension for the treatment of acute influenza. One more feather in its cap and a good long-term
investment.
 One of the very few banks in the country that did not report scams or embezzlement of funds, Karnataka Bank
must figure in every good portfolio. Very low NPA, improving CASA ratio and beaten down prices all augur well for
this Bank. BUY.
 The workings of Navkar Corporation were near to expectations. But the 40% fall (at around Rs.160) in prices make
this logistics company a great buy.
 Dilip Buildcon has emerged as the lowest bidder for a road project valued at Rs.380.07 crore in Karnataka. The
Company completes projects before time and earns additional financial incentives. BUY.
 KPIT Technologies is constantly rising. The proposed merger with Birlasoft will also add to its strength. After a big
correction last year, the present price looks attractive.
 Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) is still available cum Bonus (around Rs.365). With huge expansions, excellent
dividend payout and liberal management, the share deserves a much better discounting. BUY.
 Mukesh Ambani is tying up with several global companies to invest Rs.60000 crore to build an integrated industrial
area in Navi Mumbai. Ambani, along with Anand Jain of Jai Corp, holds close to 5200 acres close to Navi Mumbai
Airport and JNPT. Reliance Industrial Infrastructure and Jai Corp will remain in focus.
 According to sources, Bhageria Industires is reportedly doing well and the stock which has not at all participated in
the chemical rally can easily double from the current level.
 With Banking/internet frauds on the rise, Cyber Security companies are expected to benefit immensely due to good
demand going forward. The stock of Aurionpro Solutions is a good bet as the firm specializes in banking/cyber
securities software.
 An Ahmedabad based analyst recommends 20 Microns, as government has opened commercial coal mining for the
private sector. 20 Microns Q3 profit zoomed to Rs.5.01 crore vs Rs.2.28 crore last year - a jump of 119% It may
prove to be a multibagger of 2019.
 From his last week’s recommendation in a highly negative market sentiment, Ashok Alcho-Chem zoomed to
Rs.119.95 from Rs.113.35. He is still bullish on Ashok Alcho-Chem at the CMP Rs.118.40; Chandni Textiles
Engineering Industries zoomed to Rs.41.40 from Rs.36.90 he is still bullish on it at CMP Rs.41.40; Kulkarni Power
Tools zoomed to Rs.56.80 from Rs.51.50 and he is highly bullish on it at CMP Rs.56.65.

BEST BET

A Time Communications Publication 7


Shankara Building Products Ltd
(BSE Code: 540425) (CMP: Rs.1705.15) (FV: Rs.10)
By Amit Kumar Gupta
Incorporated in 1995, Bengaluru-based Shankara Building Products Ltd (Shankara), formerly Shankara Infrastructure
Materials Ltd, is engaged in the retail sale of home improvement and building products. It offers structural steel, cement,
TMT bars, hollow blocks, pipes and tubes, roofing solutions, welding accessories, primers, solar heaters, plumbing
products, tiles, sanitary ware, water tanks, plywood, kitchen sinks and lighting and other allied products. As of 7
February 2018, it operated 129 Shankara Buildpro brand stores across 9 states and 1 union territory in India. It is also
engaged in the processing of steel tubes, galvanized strips, cold rolled strips, color coated roofing sheets, bright rods and
scaffolding products. In addition, it sources and sells steel and steel tubes; cement products; and other building products
such as water tanks, tiles, bath fittings, welding electrodes, etc. It serves home owners, architects and contractors and
small enterprises; commercial/industrial establishments; and residential, infrastructure, automobile, general
engineering, agriculture and other sectors.
During Q3FY18, Shankara reported a 16% YoY growth in revenues to Rs.6.3 bn driven by strong retail growth of 32%
YoY. EBITDA growth at 13% was driven by margin improvement in the retail segment. Revenue mix changes towards
high-margin retail and an improvement in the processing segment should support (a) margin expansion; (b) EBITDA/
PAT CAGR of 16%/ 30% over FY17-FY20E; and (c) a ~400 bps RoE expansion to 22%.
Retail revenues for the quarter were up 22% YoY at Rs.3 bn, driven by (1) a weak base; (2) strong store addition; (3)
healthy same store sales growth (SSSg) led by a recovery in construction activities; and (4) additional revenue (~Rs.90
mn) from the acquisition of Vaigai Sanitation in Chennai. Retail EBITM improved ~240 bps to 10.4%, leading to strong
EBITDA growth of 72%. It added 6 new stores during the quarter, taking the store count to 124.
A conscious decision to reduce channel segment sales led to just 1% growth in segment revenues to Rs.1.2 bn.
Enterprise segment grew 5% YoY due to a pick-up in industrial/ construction activities. EBIT for channel and enterprise
segment declined 36% YoY with margins contracting ~340 bps YoY due to exceptionally high margins in the previous
corresponding period.
Shankara acquired three stores of JP Sanitation (JP), an established brand in Bangalore. With 30+ years of operations, JP
has built a significant connect with home owners, architects, builders and home suppliers. Synergies to Shankara should
flow in the form of higher revenues in the Home Improvement Financials: (Rs. per share)
categories with cross-selling of products to customers. Particulars FY17A FY18E FY19E FY20E
Other expenses declined 10% YoY while employee expenses Earnings 26.4 34.6 45.5 57.9
rose 31%, leading to a 13% growth in EBITDA to Rs.408 mn. Book Value 172 202 238 284
Interest costs declined 16% YoY to Rs.110 mn. FCFF 45.4 -24.4 38.1 42.6
Technical Outlook: The stock looks very good on the daily chart P/E (x) 65.2 49.7 37.8 29.7
for medium-term investment. It has formed a rounding bottom P/B (x) 10 8.5 7.2 6.1
pattern on the daily chart and a breakout with good volumes at EV/EBITDA (x) 22.9 21 17.6 14.7
Rs.1835 can push the stock to higher levels. The stock trades
above all important 200 DMA levels on the daily chart.
Start accumulating at this level of Rs.1705.15 and on dips to Rs.1625 for medium-to-long-term investment and a
possible price target of Rs.1900+ in the next 12 months.

STOCK WATCH
By Amit Kumar Gupta

PNC Infratech Ltd


(BSE Code: 539150) (CMP: Rs.167.30) (FV: Rs.2) (TGT: Rs.200+)
Incorporated in 1989, Agra-based PNC Infratech Ltd (PNC), formerly PNC Construction Company Ltd, operates as an
infrastructure construction, development and management company. It executes various infrastructure projects
including highways, bridges, flyovers, power transmission lines, airport runways and pavements, rail freight corridors,
industrial area development and other infrastructure projects. It also provides end-to-end infrastructure
implementation solutions such as engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) services on a fixed-sum turnkey

A Time Communications Publication 8


basis as well as on an item rate basis; and executes and implements projects on a design-build-finance-operate-transfer,
operate-maintain-transfer, hybrid annuity model and other PPP formats.
PNC’s order book is strong at Rs.7976 crore, which provides strong visibility over the next 2-3 years. In addition, it has
received LoI (letter of intent) for a HAM (Hybrid Annuity Mode) project. The bid project cost is Rs.2159 crore. Beside
this, the management expects to receive appointed dates for majority of its project portfolio in Q4FY18E. It expects to
receive appointed dates for Bhojpur-Buxar project by March 2018 end, Jhansi-Khajuraho Package I by February 2018
end and Jhansi-Khajuraho Package II by mid-March 2018. It has also received appointed dates for Nagina-Kashipur in
October 2017. It lends comfort for a sharp pick-up in execution from FY19E onwards. Consequently, we expect a robust
top-line, adjusted bottom-line growth of 40.1%, 22.6% to Rs.3453 crore and Rs.228.4 crore respectively over FY18E-
20E.
NHAI is expected to open bids for 165 projects (largely on EPC, HAM front) worth ~Rs.1.3 lakh crore in the next two
months, which provide strong opportunities for players like PNC. Consequently, the management has guided for robust
order inflows of Rs.5000-6000 crore in Q4FY18E and Rs.8000-9000 crore in FY19E. Also, NHAI plans to award projects
worth Rs.30000 crore under the Bharatmala programme in FY19E.
PNC’s toll collections have grown significantly, given the low base quarter impacted by demonetisation. Toll collections
in Q3FY18 for various projects are as follows: Rs.21 crore for Kanpur-Kabrai; Rs.81 crore in Kanpur Ayodhya; Rs.11
crore in Bareilly-Almora; Rs.51 crore for Ghaziabad-Aligarh; and Rs.11 crore in Narela Industrial Estate.
PNC received a bonus worth Rs.58.2 crore for early completion of its Agra-Lucknow Expressway project. On the HAM
front, it has a total equity requirement of Rs.605 crore (including Chakeri-Allahabad HAM project) to be infused over the
next two years.
Technical Outlook: The PNC Infratech stock looks very good on the daily chart for medium-term investment. It is
moving in a strong uptrend with a higher high and higher low formation on the daily chart. The stock trades above all
important 200 DMA levels on the daily chart.
Start accumulating at this level of Rs.167.30 and on dips to Rs.147 for medium-to-long-term investment and a possible
price target of Rs.200+ in the next 12 months.
******

Max Financial Services Ltd


(BSE Code: 500271) (CMP: Rs.496.85) (FV: Rs.2) (TGT: Rs.575+)
Incorporated in 1982, New Delhi-based Max Financial Services Ltd (MFSL), formerly Max India Ltd, through its
subsidiary - Max Life Insurance Company Ltd (MLICL) provides life insurance products. It offers long-term savings,
protection and retirement solutions as well as child education and cancer insurance plans. Its strengths lie in (i) its huge
scalability potential; and (ii) globally experienced
strategic partners provide technical know-how.
Factoring in benefits of improving outlook on FOR WEEKLY GAINS
macros augurs well for reversing the drop in
financial savings (driven by insurance). Fast...Focused…First
In the insurance space, we expect MFSL to be first Fresh One Up Trend Weekly
on the block to capitalise on the same given its: (1) A product designed for short-term trading
superior quality of book leading to best-in-class singling out one stock to focus upon.
conservation ratios; and (2) strategic partnership
with Axis Bank and Yes Bank. Fresh One Up Trend Weekly (formerly Power of RS Weekly)
Growth momentum was below trend with new will identify the stop loss, buy price range and profit
business premium growth of 15.5% YoY on 14% booking levels along with its relative strength, weekly
reversal value and the start date of the trend or the
growth in first year premium (FYP) and ~18% rise
turndown exit signals. This recommendation will be
in single premiums. As a result, individual APE followed up in the subsequent week with the revised levels
(annual premium equivalent) grew 17% YoY. for each trading parameter.
Further, renewal premium growth was soft (up 7%
YoY) leading to mere 10% YoY growth in gross Subscription: Rs.2000 per month or Rs.18000 per annum
written premium (GWP). Growth looks optically Available via email
lower due to: a) tilt towards lower-ticket protection For a free trial call us on 022-22616970 or email at
business; and b) limited tilt towards higher-ticket moneytimes.support@gmail.com
ULIPs (Unit Linked Insurance Plans) (proportion

A Time Communications Publication 9


curtailed at 40%), which are driving the industry growth. Qualitatively, growth is being led by the more profitable
protection business, which should lead to sustained improvement in profitability.
Core business momentum continued to improve, as reflected in: a) sustained persistency (13th month (9MFY18) at 81%
v/s 82% in H1FY18, 61st month steady at 53%); b) cost ratio continues to improve (down 24 bps YoY to 3.9% for
9MFY18); and c) distribution mix continues to diversify (other bancassurance tie-ups contributed 13% for 9MFY18 v/s
10% in 9MFY17). Healthy AUM (up 23% YoY) along with controlled opex will be the key contributors for delivering
sustainable profits.
Technical Outlook: The stock looks very good on the daily chart for medium-term investment. It has formed a
downward channel pattern on the weekly chart and trades at its 200 DMA level on the weekly chart at Rs.480, where it
finds strong support.
Start accumulating at this level of Rs.496.85 and on dips to Rs.458 for medium-to-long-term investment and a possible
price target of Rs.575+ in the next 12 months.

STOCK SCAN

D. S. Kulkarni Developers Ltd: A good contrarian bet


(BSE Code: 523890) (CMP: Rs.15.75) (FV: Rs.10)
By Dildar Singh Makani
Although D. S. Kulkarni Developers is attracting negative publicity with its promoter D. S. Kulkarni alleged to be in
financial trouble, Mr. Makani makes out a case to pick up the stock at this throwaway price as its downside is
limited hereon but the upside is stupendous once the dust of the financial scams involving Nirav Modi, Mehul
Choksi and Kothari of Rotomac Pens settles down – Editor.
D S Kulkarni is a renowned construction
and contracting company which primarily Seminars on Financial Literacy Stock Market
operates in Mumbai, Pune, and Bangalore.
It has also constructed residential Place Date Time Venue Seminar on
complexes in USA. It’s past and present Vile-Parle 03/03/2018 5.30 p.m. Parle Katta, Malaviya Cashless
prestigious projects have built the roadmap (Mumbai) road, Vileparle east, Transactions: Why &
to success. Mumbai 400057 How , Bhim, POS,
Wallet Money
The Company’s strategy revolves around
Pune 04/03/2018 6 p.m. Dnyan Prabodhini Cashless
acquiring properties and converting them
High School, Nigadi Transactions: Why &
into residential and commercial complexes
Pradhikaran, Nigadi How , Bhim, POS,
and related infrastructural propositions
Wallet Money
extending to factories, godowns,
Chandrashekhar Thakur: CDSL BO Protection Fund. Tel: 9820389051;
warehouses, mills, dams, highways,
csthakur@cdslindia.com / csthakur1302@gmail.com;
tunnels, irrigational projects etc. th
BSE Building, 16 Floor, Dalal Street, Fort,
Bad News first: According to a press Mumbai - 400001
reports and a complaint filed by one of the
depositors, Jitendra Mulekar, investors who put in lakhs in a deposit scheme of DSK Developers have neither received
back the principal amount nor interest for months. But, nowhere is there any clarification about the maturity dates of
these deposits. There is also ambiguity about the use of the alleged funds. There is absolutely no evidence of fraud or
embezzlement. If the funds appear in the books of accounts of the company and shown as deposits from customers, then
a genuine business cycle resulting in a delay or non-payment of principal and/or interest cannot be considered as an
intention to cheat by the developer.
The Company has recently clarified to the High Court that the introduction of the Real Estate Regulation and
Development Act) or RERA had delayed several of the group’s projects. Furthermore, Mr. Kulkarni’s accident on the
Mumbai-Pune Expressway in May 2016 had given rise to rumours about his health and this triggered a panic withdrawal
amongst depositors, leading to a tighter financial position. The position never improved thereafter. At the same time, the
Management has clarified that it has enough resources (in the form of unsold inventories) to meet its financial liabilities.
Now consider the following plus points:
1. The Company has a small equity of Rs.25.8 crore

A Time Communications Publication 10


2. Its free reserves are around Rs.404 crore (Book value of the share of FV Rs.10 is around Rs.166.50)
3. The results for the year ended 31 March 2017 showed a small
loss of Rs.3.08 crore, resulting into a small negative EPS of
Re.1.12. This is a very miniscule loss if the turnover of the
Relative Strength (RS)
company is considered. signals a stock’s ability to perform in a
4. The unsold stocks in its books as at FY17 end was over dynamic market.
Rs.1636 crore. The Company is vigorously trying to promote Knowledge of it can lead you to profits.
sales to inject liquidity. POWER OF RS - Rs.3100 for 1 year:
5. Promoters hold around 47.64% of the equity in the Company.
6. Only a small portion of 6.74% the shares of the promoter What you get -
group are pledged as per the submissions. Most Important- Association for 1 year
7. The Company has used the funds raised from investors and at just Rs.3100!
depositors in the business of the Company.
1-2 buy / sell per day on a daily basis
8. There are no allegations of siphoning of funds by the
promoters. 1 buy per week
1 buy per month
9. In spite of the temporary slowdown in the industry resulting
in poor cash flows, promoters are still confident of its 1 buy per quarter
working. 1 buy per year
10. The Company has never failed to pay dividends over the last For more details, contact Money Times on
many years. The dividend of 12.5% paid for 2016-17 022-22616970/4805 or
transforms into a dividend yield of around 8.2%. moneytimes.support@gmail.com.
11. The delivery volumes of around 60% of total traded values
point to the fact that smart investors are lapping up the shares.
12. The price to BV works to around 0.09. By any standard, this is any excellent investment proposition and like always
fortune will favour the brave.
Although the law is above all, the courts must take a realistic view of the hardships that the Company was facing. The
arrest of its Mg. Director has tarnished the image of the Company but if the precedents of the Company are any
indication, it is very likely that time will be given to the company to service the depositors and when this happens, the
share price will definitely witness a bounce back.
It must be clearly understood well that turnaround stocks tend to give much healthier returns. Business cycles are a part
and parcel of all industries and more so of the realty sector. The management has recently clarified that they are in the
process of finding ways to raise additional funds to clear the financial liabilities.
The Company is likely to present its latest results in a short time. Any positive pointers will only flare up the share
prices. And if there is any clarification by the management, it will only add fuel to the fire. When Subrata Roy of the
defamed Sahara group (which has to pay investors more than Rs.65,000 crore) has been allowed over 3-4 years to clear
his dues, will the Court not allow time to this honest Management to repay its liabilities?

STOCK ANALYSIS

Shipping Corporation of India Ltd


(BSE Code: 523598) (CMP: Rs.73.05) (FV: Rs.10)
By Rahul Sharma
Shipping Corporation of India Ltd (SCI) was established on 2 October 1961 by the amalgamation of Eastern Shipping
Corporation and Western Shipping Corporation. Starting out as a marginal Liner shipping Company with just 19 vessels,
SCI has today evolved as the largest shipping company in India. It also has substantial interests in various segments of
the shipping trade. SCI’s owned fleet includes Bulk carriers, Crude oil tankers, Product tankers, Container vessels,
Passenger-cum-Cargo vessels, Phosphoric Acid/ Chemical carriers, LPG/Ammonia carriers and Offshore Supply vessels.
Sailing through for nearly five decades, SCI has a significant presence on the global maritime map. As the country’s
premier shipping line, SCI owns and operates around one third of the Indian tonnage, and has operating interests in
practically all areas of the shipping business servicing both national and international trades. In view of the demand
from Indian trade, SCI has diversified into a large number of areas. It is the only Indian shipping company operating

A Time Communications Publication 11


break-bulk services, international container services, liquid/dry bulk services, offshore services, passenger services. In
addition, SCI mans and manages a large number of vessels on behalf of various government departments and the
Government of India has conferred ‘Navratna’ status to SCI on 1 August 2008 with enhanced autonomy and delegation of
powers to it towards capital expenditure, formation of Joint Ventures, mergers, etc.
SCI recorded a strong turnaround in Q3 with a PAT Rs.82 crore v/s Rs.76 crore loss QoQ. A buoyant Baltic freight index
means better prospects A diversified fleet, expensive real estate in south Mumbai a cash pile of Rs.1,300 + crore are the
other positives. It owns 69 vessels to carry out tonnage of 5.98 million DWT and 3.32 million gross tonnage (GT) with
Total Assets of Rs.10892 crore v/s Market cap of Rs.3800 crore. Given these positive factors, we estimate that SCI may
declare PAT of Rs.150 crore in H2FY18 and Rs.350 crore in FY19. In peer comparison, SCI is the cheapest shipping stock
although it is the largest shipping company. The current MD of SCI was the MD of a private sector shipping company.
Hence, under his leadership, SCI is expected to emerge more efficient and profitable.
Disinvestment of SCI fully or in parts. The 353.5 KWP Solar Photo Voltaic Power plant at SCI Maritime Training Institute
at Powai in Mumbai commenced operations from 23 January 2017. In view of the benefit sand actual savings derived
from said solar plant, SCI has taken expansion of installed capacity of plant by around 200K WP during FY17-18. Tanker
markets rallied for a while before going into a downward spiral, while dry cargo index recovered from its lowest mark
and quadrupled pushing up container revenues in Europe significantly. The Offshore segment is also recovering given
the rising world crude oil prices. After a gap of almost four years, SCI resumed shipments of crude oil from Iran in July
2016. In Dry bulk shipping the demand has improved and exceeds the fleet growth. Chief Shipping Analyst, at BIMCO
feels that 2018 will be a year that ship owners should take advantage of, as the dry bulk fleet is likely to grow at the
slowest pace seen since 1999 and BIMCO sees global demand growth out stripping supply growth in 2018. In view of the
above, we anticipate that the stock price of SCI may hit Rs.95-98 after Q3FY18 results, Rs.125-130 after FY18 results and
Rs.500 within 3 years.
At CMP Rs.73.05 and market cap Rs.3402.66 crore, investors can Buy this stock with a target price of Rs.15 for a time
horizon of 18 months.

MARKET REVIEW

Market strengthens
By Devendra A Singh
The BSE Sensex ended higher 131.39 points to settle at 34,142.15 and the NSE Nifty closed at 10,491.05 up 38.75 points
for the week ending Friday, 23 February 2018.
Last week’s data released on India’s macro-economic front shows that consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed to 5.07% in
January 2018 from 5.21% in the previous month. In January 2017, CPI inflation was at 3.17%.
Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) fell to 4.70% in January 2018 from 4.96% in the previous month. In January 2017,
CFPI inflation was at 0.61%.
Wholesale Price Inflation (WPI) marked at 2.84% in January 2018 from 3.58% in the previous month. In January 2017 it
was 4.26%.
Primary articles inflation was at 2.37% in January 2018 as compared to 3.86% in December 2017. Manufactured
Products Inflation registered 2.78% for January 2018. For fuel and power segment inflation was at 4.08% in January
2018 as compared to 9.16% in December 2017.
Food inflation registered 3% in January 2018 against 4.72% in the previous month. Vegetable inflation came at 40.77%
in January 2018 against 56.46% in the last month.
The Indian government chaired by the PM Modi has given ex-post facto approval to the modifications carried out in the
Replacement Bill, which replaced the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (Amendment) Bill 2017, and which has been
passed by the Parliament as the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (Amendment) Act, 2018.
The amendment will bring clarity and ensure that the prohibition of certain persons in the resolution process of an
insolvent corporate person does not include unintended persons and the opportunity given to a person whose account is
classified as the non-performing asset is more equitable.
India announced higher import tax on electronics products such as mobile phones and television sets in December 2017
and 40 more items in the budget this month.

A Time Communications Publication 12


India says the move is aimed at giving local industry the chance to grow and is part of a broader plan to lift the share of
manufacturing in the GDP to a
quarter, from around 15% and MID-CAP TWINS
create tens of thousands of jobs A Performance Review
needed for a young workforce. Have a look at the grand success story of ‘Mid-Cap Twins’ launched on 1st August 2016
Sr. Scrip Name Recomm. Recomm. Highest % Gain
The US commerce department
No. Date Price (Rs.) since (Rs.)
referred questions to the US
Trade Representative’s (USTR) 1 Mafatlal Industries 01-08-16 332.85 374.40 12
office in Washington, where a 2 Great Eastern Shipping Co. 01-08-16 335.35 477 42
spokesman declined to 3 India Cements 01-09-16 149.85 226 51
comment. 4 Tata Global Beverages 01-09-16 140.10 293.70 110
On the US macro-economic 5 Ajmera Realty & Infra India 01-10-16 137.00 355.70 160
figures, the US consumer
6 Transpek Industry 01-10-16 447.00 1455.40 226
sentiment surged to 99.9 in
February 2018, exceeding the 7 Greaves Cotton 01-11-16 138.55 178 28
economists’ expectations. 8 APM Industries 01-11-16 67.10 84.40 26
Consumers were not fazed by 9 OCL India 01-12-16 809.45 1620 100
the violent stock market
10 Prism Cement 01-12-16 93.25 129.80 39
movement in recent weeks.
11 Mahindra CIE Automotive 01-01-17 182.50 266.50 46
The survey’s chief economist,
Richard Curtin, said, consumers 12 Swan Energy 01-01-17 154.10 204 32
appeared to be focused on 13 Hindalco Industries 01-02-17 191.55 278.50 45
positive economic news rising 14 Century Textiles & Industries 01-02-17 856.50 1421 66
incomes, growing employment 15 McLeod Russel India 01-03-17
and others. Their attitudes
171.75 248.30 45
barely affected by the stock 16 Sonata Software 01-03-17 191.00 247 29
market's violent seesawing in 17 ACC 01-04-17 1446.15 1869 29
recent weeks. Only 6% 18 Walchandnagar Industries 01-04-17 142.25 272.90 92
respondents identified negative 19 Oriental Veneer Products 01-05-17 222.30 540 143
stock news when prompted.
20 Tata Steel 01-05-17 448.85 734.90 64
In contrast, favorable references
21 Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries 01-06-17 501.40 590.75 18
to government policies were
cited by 35% in February 2018 22 Ujjivan Financial Services 01-06-17 307.45 417.40 36
unchanged from January 2018 23 Ashok Leyland 01-07-17 93.85 133 42
and the highest level recorded in 24 KSB Pumps 01-07-17 759.55 931 23
more than a half century, Curtin
25 IRB Infrastructure Developers 01-08-17 224.95 251 12
said.
26 JTL Infra 01-08-17 70 125 79
The February 2018 reading
trounces the 96.8 average level 27 Stock ‘A’ 01-09-17 187.40 308.90 65
of 2017 the first reading of 2018 28 Stock ‘B’ 01-09-17 271.20 317 17
to do so. The 2017 figure is the 29 Stock ‘C’ 01-10-17 73.65 89.25 21
highest yearly average since 30 Stock ‘D’ 01-10-17 74.10 91.35 23
2000, the report added.
31 Stock ‘E’ 01-11-17 206 218.95 6
On the Euro zone front, the UK
economy expanded less than 32 Stock ‘F’ 01-11-17 38 57.90 52
previously thought in the last Thus ‘Mid-Cap Twins’ has delivered excellent results since its launch with majority of
three months of 2017. stocks gaining over 30%.
GDP grew by 0.4% in the Next edition of ‘Mid-Cap Twins’ will be released on 1 March 2018.
October-December 2017 period,
the Office for National Statistics Attractively priced at Rs.2000 per month, Rs.11000 half yearly and Rs.20,000 annually,
(ONS) said down from the initial ‘Mid-cap Twins’ will be available both as print edition or online delivery.
estimate of 0.5%.
The revision was due to the slower growth in production industries, the ONS said. In 2017 as a whole, the economy grew
by 1.7% - slightly lower than previously thought and the weakest since 2012.

A Time Communications Publication 13


The statistics body had previously estimated that the economy grew by 1.8% last year.
It said that household spending grew by 1.8% last year, also the slowest annual rate since 2012. It said the slowdown
was partly because of shoppers facing higher prices in stores.
The ONS statistician, Darren Morgan, stated that a number of very small revisions to mining, energy generation and
service were enough to see a slight downward revision to quarterly growth overall.
Chris Williamson, chief economist at IHS Markit, said that some areas of the UK economy looked worryingly weak in the
final months of last year.
The data suggested the construction industry is in a recession, business investment was stagnant and household
spending saw only modest growth.
Output per hour rose 0.8% in the three months to December 2017, data released from the Office for National Statistics
said. It follows growth of 0.9% in the previous period.
There was also a better-than-expected rise in wages. Excluding bonuses, earnings rose by 2.5% year-on-year. However,
unemployment edged higher, but still remains low at 4.4%.
The growth in productivity, as measured by the amount of work produced per working hour, will provide
encouragement to policy makers who have wrestled with the challenge of low productivity growth since the financial
crisis.
Key index plunged on Monday, 19 February 2018 on selling of equities. The Sensex corrected 236.10 points (-0.69%) to
close at 33,774.66.
Key index dipped on Tuesday, 20 February 2018 on global cues. The Sensex was down 71.07 points (-0.21%) to close at
33,703.59.
Key index advanced on Wednesday, 21 February 2018 on fresh buying of equities by market participants. The Sensex
was up 141.27 points (+0.42%) and closed at 33,844.86.
Key index ended lower on Thursday, 22 February 2018 on negative cues. The Sensex was down 25.36 points (-0.07%) to
close at 33,819.50.
Key index surged on Friday, 23 February 2018 on fresh buying by traders. The Sensex gained 322.65 points (+0.95%) to
close at 34,142.15.
For future events, national & global macro-economic figures will surely dictate global markets movements and influence
investors’ sentiment in near future.
The stock markets will be closed on Friday, 2 March 2018, on account of Holi.
India’s corporate sector will further announce results this week of Q3 earnings of FY2017-18.
The government will release data on third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) on this week.
On India’s macro-economic data to be released next month, the HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
and HSBC Services PMI for February 2018 is scheduled to be released in the first week of March 2018.
On the global front, United States macro data for February 2018 is scheduled to be released in coming weeks of March
2018.

MARKET OUTLOOK

Nifty is in the range of 10400-10550


By Rohan Nalavade
The Nifty is moving in a tight range gaining support at
Free 2-day trial of Live Market Calls
10400 level and strong resistance at 10550. A running commentary of intra-day trading
recommendations with buy/sell levels, targets, stop loss
A close below 10400 on Monday, 26 February will
on your mobile every trading day of the moth along with
generate selling pressure for 10300-10250-10180 levels
pre-market notes via email for Rs.4000 per month.
in the March 2018 series. Only a close above 10550 will
Contact Money Times on 022-22616970 or
result in a short-term rise for 10650-750 levels but the
moneytimes.support@gmail.com to register for a free trial.
major trend for 2-3 months is negative as 10200_10000
levels can be seen. So buy only 25% at every major dip and avoid buying 100% at one time. Use dips as small entries. In
good stops, avoid PSU Banks, but one can enter private banks. IT sector also looks good.

A Time Communications Publication 14


Monday, 26 February 2018, is a very important date which will show movement for the next week’s trend. But the major
trend is negative. Any big rise can be shorted for the March-April series for PSU banks. Punjab National Bank, State Bank
of India, Bank of Baroda shorts can be built up one every rise as their annual financial results all will be poor and NPAs
will spoil the Bank Nifty and market sentiment. So short the PSU banks on a rise for 2 months and trade according to the
above mentioned levels on the Nifty. The US Federal meet is very important and will decide the rate hikes in 2018. It will
affect the dollar index commodities, bond and equity markets. So Monday’s opening will set next week’s trades.
Stocks to watch out:
 Sell Punjab National Bank between Rs.114-118 for Rs.105-100 (SL: Rs.123)
 Sell Tata Motors at Rs.360-365 for Rs.350-340 (SL: Rs.369)
 Sell Asian Paints Rs.1106-1110 for Rs.990 (SL: Rs.1121)
 Sell Titan Company Rs.815-820 for Rs.790-760 (SL: Rs.828)
 Buy Ambuja Cement at Rs.256 for Rs.260-265 (SL: Rs.248)
 Nifty Futures trade for (Monday) is buy above 10500 for 10550-10600 (SL: 10450)
 Sell Nifty below 10450 for 10400-10350-10300-10250 (SL: 10525)

FIFTY: FIFTY
By Rupesh Daga

Graphite India Ltd


(BSE Code: 509488) (CMP: Rs.620.95) (FV: Rs.2)
This stock was recommended on 19 October 2017 at Rs.455.35. Thereafter it shot up went to a high of Rs.908
appreciating almost 100% and achieving our target. However, the stock has corrected back to Rs.600+ levels and
looks good for 50-100% appreciation given the recent improvement in its earnings.
Graphite India Ltd is a leading manufacturer of graphite electrodes, an essential component of electric arc furnaces that
turn scrap into steel. The company is riding on the demand wave as steelmakers across the world are ramping up output
in response to the slump in Chinese production and steel prices being at a 4-year high. Cutdown in electrode capacity in
China due to pollution curbs has resulted in shortage of graphite electrodes and prices have risen nearly 10 fold this
year. Not only HEG and Graphite but also global peers like Tokai Carbon, Showa Denko have risen in a similar way. The
company controls 13% of the world’s electrode capacity making it the fourth largest with 80 kilo tonne of facility in
India, and nearly 20 kilo tonne in Germany.
Going forward, operating leverage and better realisations would lead to strong earnings growth and a valuation re-
rating. Electrode prices which were ruling around $8000 in the previous quarter are now ruling in the range of $12000 -
$13000 MT. If the new long-term contracts are settled at this price, Graphite’s EPS should be around Rs.80-100.
According to research, the graphite electrode shortage could last for more than five years. Chemical companies went
through the same boom 1-2 years back on the back of pollution control measures in China. The likes of Thirumalai, Kiri,
Meghmani, Aksharchem have all zoomed 10-20 times. During the December 2017 quarter the company registered sales
of Rs.933 crore with Net Profit of Rs.340 crore translating into an EPS of Rs.17. Similar story may well unfold in the stock
of Graphite India. At a conservative forward P/E multiple of 23.25x, the stock could easily double from the current levels.
******

RPG Life Sciences Ltd


(BSE Code: 532983) (CMP: Rs.452.40) (FV: Rs.8)
This stock was recommended on 4 January 2016 as a High Flyer at Rs.317.80 level for multibagger gains. Its share
price almost doubled since then, touching a 52-week high of Rs.606.4. However, it has corrected to Rs.450+ levels
and again looks good for investment. The company has promising prospects and the stock has the potential to turn
a multibagger.
RPG Life Sciences, a part of the Rs.25000 crore RPG Enterprises, is an integrated pharmaceutical company operating in
the domestic and international market in the branded formulations, global generics, synthetic and fermentation APIs
space. It is a researched based pharmaceutical company, producing a wide range of trusted and tested products. Around
67% of the revenues is derived from domestic formulations business, 14% from APIs and around 19% is derived from

A Time Communications Publication 15


international formulations. Its manufacturing facilities are approved by various regulatory bodies and situated at
Ankleshwar in Gujarat and Navi Mumbai in Maharashtra.
During the past four quarters, the company has shown tremendous improvement in its fundamentals along with the
change in management. For the December 2017 quarter, it registered sales of Rs.95 crore against Rs.66 crore during the
previous corresponding period. Net Profit for the quarter stood at Rs.5.46 crore against a profit of Rs.55 lakh during
December 2017. EPS for the quarter stood at Rs.3.30 against Rs0.33 earlier. The company’s major brands include Rabee
& Tricaine (Antacid), Min Min (Vitamin and Iron supplements), Lomotil (Anti-Diarrhoeal), Serenace (CNS), Aldactone
(Diuretic), Azoran (Organ Transplant). It also has presence in the oncology and the personal care segments with various
products.
The company has seen top management changes in the past. It’s MD, C. T. Renganathan, who joined in 2015 has been
associated with the pharma industry for 3 decades. He has led companies like GSK India, Boston Scientific, and Eli Lilly in
his previous role. In his last assignment he was the Executive Vice President GSK Pharma. Mr. Sachin Nandgoankar
serves as the president and the CEO and joined in 2015 too. Prior to that, he worked with Boston Consulting group for
15 years where he was a senior partner and Director and held many global positions. It recently inducted Zahabiya
Khorakiwala as an Additional Director. Zahabiya Khorakiwala is the daughter of Mr. Habil Khorakiwala of the Wockhardt
fame. Zahabiya heads the 1000 crore Wockhardt Hospital. So, the bet is on the management of the company.
RPG aims to generate close to Rs.1000 crore revenue by 2020 by growing organically as well as inorganically. The
company is expected to post an EPS of Rs.50 in FY20. With such high growth, the company is expected to command an
earnings multiple between 20x to 30x. At 20x the stock can easily double from the current level and at 30x the stock
price has the potential to triple from the current level. Promoters hold close to 69% in the company and they have been
hiking their stake through open market purchases in the recent downfall. Buy at CMP and on declines for multibagger
returns in coming years.

EXPERT EYE
By Vihari

Meghmani Organics Ltd: Bright prospects


(BSE Code: 532865) (CMP: Rs.95.80) (FV: Re.1)
Meghmani Organics Ltd (MOL) manufactures pigments and agrochemicals. It manufactures caustic soda using the latest
‘membrane‐cell technology’ from Asahi Kasei Chemical Corporation, Japan. It specializes in the manufacture of green and
blue pigment products that span multiple applications. It also produces a broad spectrum of commonly used pesticides
for crop and non-crop applications. Its wholly-owned subsidiaries include Meghmani Europe BVBA, Meghmani Organics
USA, P T Meghmani Organics Indonesia and Meghmani Overseas FZE. It holds 57% stake in Meghmani Finechem, a
caustic manufacturing firm. Caustic soda constitutes ~30% of sales, pigments ~34% and agrochemicals ~36%. It
exports to 75 countries and exports constitute 78% of sales.
MOL’s pigment manufacturing facilities are located at – i) GIDC Vatva, Ahmedabad (2,940 TPA) for the manufacture of
Pigment Green 7; ii) GIDC Panoli, near Ankleshwar (17,400 TPA) for the manufacture of CPC Blue, Alpha Blue, Beta Blue
and Pigment Blue 15 products; and iii) Dahej SEZ Ltd (10,800 TPA) for the manufacture of CPC Blue, Alpha Blue and Beta
Blue products.
MOL has a 60 MW captive power plant, which results in lower power cost and high margins since power constitutes
60% of the total raw material cost of caustic soda production. It ventured into caustic soda manufacturing through a
57% JV (Meghmani Finechem Ltd) with International Finance Corporation (IFC) in 2009 at an investment of Rs.550
crore for a 1,19,000 TPA capacity at Dahej. In FY15, it enhanced its capacity by 40% to 1,67,000 TPA, making it the
fourth‐largest caustic‐chlorine‐flakes capacity in India after Grasim Industries, Gujarat Alkali and DCM Shriram.
MOL is one of the largest phthalocyanide‐based pigment manufacturer in the world with a global market share of 7% in
terms of volume. Its vertically integrated facilities for CPC blue and end products such as pigment green and pigment
blue give it a competitive advantage as pigments are crude derivatives and their prices are relatively stable despite
sharp corrections in crude prices. These pigment products are used in multiple applications including paints, plastics
and printing inks. The pigment division derives 80% of its net sales from exports. Its marquee clients comprise mainly
MNCs like Sun‐DIC, Flint Group, Akzo Nobel, DuPont and PPG Industries. Its expertise and high‐degree customisation has
helped it develop long‐term client relationships resulting in 90% repeat business.

A Time Communications Publication 16


MOL has a global distribution network through 70 overseas distributors and subsidiaries in USA, Europe, Indonesia and
Dubai and a representative office in China. It has warehouses in Belgium, Turkey, Russia, USA and Uruguay. It has pan
India presence through its branded agrochemical distribution chain of 2,370 stockists and distributors. Its customers
comprise mainly MNCs that are leading players in their respective industries.
MOL has invested Rs.650 crore capex over the last five years. Its subsidiary - Meghmani Finechem commenced
commercial production of caustic potash-flake (KOH) of 60 tonnes per day (21,000 TPA) in April 2016 at its existing
manufacturing facility situated at GIDC Dahej, Gujarat. The facility was set up at a cost of Rs.65 crore. It has obtained
approval from the Environmental Protection Agency of USA for amending its label registration for the product
Permethrin Technical 95.5% with the addition of 'Use on Agricultural Crops, Domestic Farm Animals, Mosquito and
Others usages’.
Its 40,000 TPA Chloromethane plant is expected to be commissioned by December 2018. Caustic soda capacity will
stand enhanced at 2,50,000 TPA from 1,66,600 TPA by June 2019.Caustic Potash has several universal applications. The
largest users of Caustic Potash are Soap, Detergent, Fertilizers and Chemical companies. MOL is ready to leverage on
these opportunities through its investments across all business areas.
For FY17, MOL reported net profit of Rs.116.2 crore on sales of Rs.1555 crore with an EPS of Rs.3.5. During Q3FY18, net
profit zoomed 131% to Rs.62.6 crore on 26% higher sales of Rs.452 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.1.7. During the quarter,
interest cost declined to Rs.9.9 crore from Rs.12.75 crore in Q3FY17. During 9MFY18, it reported net profit of Rs.161
crore v/s Rs.88 crore in 9MFY17 on higher sales of Rs.1389 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.4.8. During the period, interest
cost declined to Rs.30.7 crore from Rs.40.4 crore in 9MFY17.
With an equity capital of Rs.25.4 crore and reserves of Rs.693 crore, MOL’s share book value works out to Rs.28.2. The
value of its gross block is Rs.946 crore. Investments of Rs.29 crore and debts of Rs.461 crore give it a DER of 0.64:1. The
management plans to reduce debts by Rs.100 crore by FY18. The promoters hold 50.1% of the equity capital, FIs hold
10% and PCBs hold 8.9%, which leaves 31% stake with the investing public.
The global pigments market is expected to grow at 4.5% CAGR to reach $14.7 bn over FY13-18. The paints and coatings
industry accounts for 39% of the overall end-user market and is expected to drive the future demand due to growth in
end-user industries.
The Asia Pacific pigments market is expected to grow at 5.6% CAGR over FY13-18 to reach over $6.4 bn by 2018. The
global Agrochemicals market is expected to grow at 3.6% CAGR. Asia-Pacific leads the market for agrochemicals
followed by Latin America, North America and
Europe. India is the 4th largest producer of One more successful year for TF+ subscribers…
pesticides after USA, Japan and China. The global
Chlor Alkali market is currently valued at $70 bn What TF+ subscribers say:
and is expected to grow at 6% CAGR over FY2014-
19 to reach $94 bn. The Asia-Pacific region is the
“Think Investment… Think TECHNO FUNDA PLUS”
world's largest market for Chlor Alkali products. Techno Funda Plus is a superior version of the Techno Funda
column that has recorded near 90% success since launch.
In the Agrochemicals segment, it plans to increase
the number of high value products and have high Every week, Techno Funda Plus identifies three fundamentally
margins branded revenue. It plans to increase pan sound and technically strong stocks that can yield handsome
India distribution network for which an exclusive returns against their peers in the short-to-medium-term.
supply chain management department for the Most of our recommendations have fetched excellent returns to
formulation products has already been set up. It our subscribers. Of the 156 stocks recommended between 11
has been constantly investing in R&D to gain a January 2016 and 2 January 2017 (52 weeks), we booked profit in
competitive edge over its peers. 125 stocks, 27 triggered the stop loss.

MOL continues to build on its strong position as a Of the 156 stocks recommended between 9 January 2017 and 1
leading diversified Indian chemical company January 2018 (52 weeks), we booked 7-41% profit in 119 stocks,
exporting to 75 countries and servicing 400+ 24 triggered the stop loss of 2-18% while 13 are still open. Out of
marquee clients. Going forward, the capex of 13, 11 stocks are in green & 2 stocks are in nominal red.
Rs.557 crore undertaken over the past five years is If you want to earn like this,
set to fuel further growth with enough capacity to
subscribe to TECHNO FUNDA PLUS today!
support a revenue growth to Rs.2000 crore.
Based on its current going, MOL is likely to post an For more details, contact Money Times on
EPS of Rs.7.5 in FY18 and Rs.10 in FY19. At the 022-22616970/22654805 or moneytimes.support@gmail.com.
CMP of Rs.95.80, the stock trades at a forward P/E Subscription Rate: 1 month: Rs.2500; 3 months: Rs.6000;
of 12.77x on FY18E and 9.58x on FY19E earnings. A 6 months: Rs.11000; 1 year: Rs.18000.

A Time Communications Publication 17


reasonable P/E of 17.5x will take its share price to Rs.131 in the medium-term and Rs.175 thereafter. The stock’s 52-
week high/low is Rs.129.40/36.30.

TECHNO FUNDA
By Nayan Patel

Ashok Alco-Chem Ltd


(BSE Code: 524594) (CMP: Rs.118.40) (FV: Rs.10)
Incorporated in 1992, Mumbai based Ashok Alco-Chem Ltd (AACL) manufactures and markets chemicals in India and
internationally. It operates through two segments, Chemical Division and Global Trading Division. The company offers
ethyl acetate, which is used in herbicides; the production of pharmaceuticals and food products; and coating
formulations, such as epoxies, urethanes, cellulosics, acrylics, and vinyls, as well as a solvent in inks for flexographic and
rotogravure printing. It also provides glacial acetic acid, which is used in paint, varnish, lacquer, and related products, as
well as aspirin manufacturing and photography activities; and acetaldehyde that is used as an intermediate for the
synthesis of other chemicals, a fruit and fish preservative, a flavoring agent, for hardening gelatin, and as denaturant for
alcohol and in fuel compositions, as well as in the production of perfumes, polyester resins, and basic dyes, rubber,
tanning, and paper industries. In addition, the company provides ceramic materials, such as ball clay, quartz, and
feldspar. Further, it trades in mineral products, including bauxite, bentonite, kaolin, gypsum, bleaching earth, and iron
ore. The manufacturing facility was set up at Mahad MIDC, Maharashtra which is 170 kms from Mumbai and offers
excellent logistics facility being very close to JNPT port terminal. The plant is spread over about 28000 sq.mts. The
Company’s plant is one of the leading alcohol based facility with an installed capacity to produce 13,000 MT of Glacial
Acetic Acid, 30,000 MT of Ethyl Acetate and 10,500 MT of Acetaldehyde per annum.
It has an equity base of just Rs.4.60 crore that is
supported by reserves of around Rs.45.06 crore Financial Performance: (Consolidated) (Rs. in crore)
which is almost 9.79 times higher than the equity. Particulars Q3FY18 Q3FY17 9MFY18 9MFY17 FY17
The promoters hold 54.79% while the investing Sales 43.93 40.88 119.02 128.29 161.22
public holds 45.21% stake in the company. Ace PBT 2.46 1.46 3.81 4.55 5.53
small-cap investor, Subramanian P, hold 2.83% Tax 0.89 0.22 1.49 1.20 1.95
stake in the company. Its share book value works PAT 1.57 1.24 2.25 3.32 3.58
out to Rs.107.94 and the price:book value ratio EPS (in RS.) 3.42 2.72 5.03 7.26 7.79
stands at just 1.10x.
For Q3FY18, it has posted PAT of Rs.1.57 crore against PAT of Rs.1.24 crore on sales of Rs.43.93 crore fetching an EPS of
Rs.3.42.
During 9MFY18, it has posted PAT of Rs.2.25 crore against PAT of Rs.3.32 crore on sales of Rs.119.02 crore fetching an
EPS of Rs.5.03. The Stock trades at a P/E ratio of 21.97.
On 13 December 2017, India Max Investment Fund Ltd has bought 25000 shares at Rs.127.14. Based on the
Q3FY18 number; the AACL share looks quite attractive at the current level. Investors can buy this stock with a stop loss
of Rs.92. On the upper side, it could zoom to Rs.145-150 levels in the medium-term. Its all-time high rate is Rs.257.3.
*****

National Plastic Industries Ltd


(BSE Code: 526616) (CMP: Rs.66.65) (FV: Rs.10)
Incorporated in 1952, Mumbai based National Plastic Industries Ltd manufactures and sells plastic products under the
‘NATIONAL’ brand in India. The company offers furniture products, including chairs, chairs without arm chairs, corner
and shoe racks, utility packs, stools, baby
products, planters, and storage products, as well Financial Performance: (Rs. in crore)
as dining tables, round, center, and student tables; Particulars Q3FY18 Q3FY17 9MFY18 9MFY17 FY17
housewares such as buckets, chopping boards, Sales 26.26 27.51 85.84 72.69 112.18
laundry baskets, hobby boxes, shopping baskets, PBT 1.13 0.76 2.79 2.11 2.95
storage crates, and hangers. The Company also Tax - - - - 1.88
manufactures PVC flooring Mats in Nellore, PAT 1.13 0.76 2.79 2.11 1.07
Andhra Pradesh and markets them under the EPS (in Rs.) 1.23 0.83 3.05 2.31 1.17

A Time Communications Publication 18


brand name of ‘INSTA’. It is also engaged in manufacturing Air-coolers for various brands. The company also exports its
products.
It has an equity base of just Rs.9.13 crore that is supported by reserves of around Rs.14.73 crore. The Promoters hold
56.66% while the investing public holds 43.34% stake in the company.
For Q3FY18, PAT jumped 48.68% to Rs.1.13 crore from Rs.0.76 crore on sales of Rs.26.26 crore fetching an EPS of
Rs.1.23. During 9MFY18, PAT jumped 32.22% to Rs.2.79 crore from Rs.2.11 crore in 9MFY17 on 18% higher sales of
Rs.85.84 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.2.79. It has reported 161% higher PAT of Rs.2.79 crore for 9MFY18 against Rs.1.07
crore in FY17.
It is a regular dividend paying company and paid 10% dividend for FY17.
Its 52 week high/low is Rs.91.80/50.20. The stock is available near its 52 week low. Based on its 9MFY18 performance,
the ‘National Plastic Industries’ share looks quite attractive at the current level. Investors can buy this stock with a stop
loss of Rs.55. On the upper side, it could zoom to Rs.90/100 levels in medium-term.

BULL’S EYE

Firstsource Solutions Ltd


(BSE Code: 532809) (CMP: Rs.51.75) (FV: Rs.10)
By Pratit Nayan Patel
We had recommended this stock at Rs.42.60 on 27 November 2017 where-after it zoomed to Rs.52.45 in a very short time.
We recommend this stock once again based on its anticipated good Q3 results.
Company Background: First Source is a leading Business Process Management (BPM) company, providing customer-
centric business process services. It is owned by RP-Sanjiv Goenka Group, a Rs.17400 crore conglomerate. All First
Source group entities operates independently and the accounts are consolidated at the group level. The RP-Sanjiv
Goenka Group owns close to 55% shares of First Source through a subsidiary. FSL provides its services in the
Healthcare, Telecommunications & Media, and Banking, Financial Services & Insurance (BFSI) industries. The company
works with Fortune 500, FTSE 100 companies in the US, the UK, Philippines, India and Sri Lanka. Over the last decade,
the company has focused on creating world class processes, developed Intellectual Property (IP), adopted industry
standard technologies for continuous improvement in the quality of services which results in precise delivery of
solutions. On a consolidated basis, the company had 48 global operation centers. The centers are located across India,
US, UK and Philippines. 20 of the Company’s operation centers are located in 13 cities in India, 18 in USA, 8 in UK and 2
in Philippines.
Equity capital, reserve & promoter holding: The Company’s equity of Rs.685.26 crore is supported by reserves of
around Rs.1346.70 crore. Its share book value stood at Rs.29.67 as at 31 March 2017. The promoters hold 54.57%
Mutual Funds hold 1.25%, FPIs hold 5.93%, old promoter ICICI Bank hold 4.90%, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala holds 2.92%
while the investing public holds 30.43% stake in the company.
Performance: For Q3FY18, its PAT zoomed 42.69% to Rs.99.56 crore against Rs.69.77 crore in Q3FY17 on an income of
Rs.863.14 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.1.46. For 9MFY18, its PAT stood at Rs.233.71 crore against Rs.214.34 crore in
9MFY17 on an income of Rs.2560.18 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.3.42.
Industry Overview: After a few years of stagnation, the global IT industry saw a modest growth recovery of about 4%
in 2016. The worldwide IT spending is projected to be USD 3.5 trillion in 2017, which is 2.7% higher than the spend in
2016. New age technologies will be a key driver for the global IT-BPM industry, where the addressable market is likely
to expand to ~USD 4 trillion by 2025 at a CAGR of 3.6%! It is expected that the industry’s mix between traditional and
Performance Review: (Consolidated) (Rs. in crore) digital will change
Particulars Q3FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY17 9MFY18 9MFY17 FY17 FY16 significantly over the
next decade. The Indian
Total Income 863.14 846.38 860.08 2560.18 2592.54 3456.91 3174.69 IT-BPM industry has
PBT 91.18 83.67 83.12 254.2 260.82 336.92 295.62 been affected by the
Tax -8.37 14.91 13.36 20.49 46.48 57.68 30.22 global economic
PAT 99.56 68.75 69.77 233.71 214.34 279.24 264.97 downturn as well as the
political developments
EPS (Rs.) 1.46 1.01 1.03 3.42 3.17 4.14 3.96 around the world.
According to NASSCOM’s Strategic Review 2017, Indian IT services and BPM industry’s sectoral revenue is expected to

A Time Communications Publication 19


reach USD 200-225 billion in 2020 and revenue of USD 350 billion by 2025. IT-BPM exports play a key role in India’s
economy. Its share in India’s total service export is over 49% and accounts for 32% of India’s forex reserves.
Conclusion: The management has reiterated that FY18 sales growth would be in line with the industry on the back of a
healthy deal pipeline and strong traction in Healthcare and Mortgage businesses in the US and BFSI in the UK. The size of
the deals too has increased in this quarter. The management is confident of a margin expansion on a constant currency
(CC) basis as the losses in the ISGN business have been arrested and profitable recovery seen in Q3FY18 given an uptick
in the mortgage business, traction in the healthcare business and its exit from some unprofitable business. The
management feels that the core business performance continues to do well. Seasonally, its Q4 is the strongest quarter
and the reduction in US tax rates is a positive step for the Company. FSL’s net long-term debt stands at US$50.4 mn. Debt
repayment continues as per plan and the management has guided for debt-free company by FY19.
At CMP of Rs.51.75, FSL trades at P/E ratio of 11.87x earnings. Based on above financial and performance parameters,
the FSL share looks quite attractive at the current level. Investors can accumulate this share with a stop loss of Rs.43 for
an upper target of Rs.75 in next 12 to 15 months. The stock’s 52-week high/low is Rs.52.45/30.4 and its market cap
stands at Rs.3549.26 crore.

FUTURES WATCH
By Vinod Harlalka

Given below are the Top 10 Gainers & Losers in the Futures segment in the February 2018 expiry.
TOP 10 GAINERS
Jan. Exp. February 2018 Expiry Diff.
No. Scrip Closing Open High Low Close %
25-01-18 25-01-18 22-02-18
1 CAN FIN HOMES 442.05 451.85 538.40 400.95 516.90 16.93
2 IDBI BANK 65.25 66.15 74.90 56.10 74.30 13.87
APOLLO HOSPITALS
3
ENTERPRISE 1132.95 1141.45 1249.90 1069.85 1246.35 10.01
4 ASHOK LEYLAND 122.40 123.50 139.25 117.00 132.35 8.13
CHOLAMANDALAM INVESTMENT
5
AND FINANCE COMPANY 1306.30 1326.30 1412.95 1208.65 1377.15 5.42
6 HINDUSTAN ZINC 298.20 306.35 318.95 274.50 313.75 5.21
7 BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES 4628.65 4660.25 4882.90 4398.70 4852.00 4.83
8 BHARAT FORGE 721.50 726.90 783.85 675.00 755.60 4.73
9 COAL INDIA 300.05 293.10 315.00 280.05 312.30 4.08
10 ESCORTS 837.25 842.30 923.20 802.05 870.10 3.92

TOP 10 LOSERS
Jan. Exp. February 2018 Expiry Diff.
No. Scrip Closing Open High Low Close %
25-01-18 25-01-18 22-02-18
1 PC JEWELLER 560.85 567.50 579.15 218.90 327.75 -41.56
2 PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK 180.80 182.80 183.00 111.25 114.80 -36.50
3 IFCI 30.75 31.00 31.30 22.35 22.65 -26.34
4 ALLAHABAD BANK 70.15 70.35 71.05 48.65 52.05 -25.80
5 JAIPRAKASH ASSOCIATES 22.00 22.40 22.40 16.35 16.40 -25.45
6 UNION BANK OF INDIA 141.50 142.60 143.10 105.10 107.50 -24.03
7 BANK OF INDIA 169.65 174.30 174.30 119.40 129.20 -23.84
8 GMR INFRASTRUCTURE 22.85 22.90 23.90 17.20 17.65 -22.76
9 JAIN IRRIGATION SYSTEMS 145.65 147.55 151.25 101.65 112.80 -22.55
10 SYNDICATE BANK 76.85 77.65 78.05 54.20 59.75 -22.25

A Time Communications Publication 20


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Disclaimer: Investment recommendations made in Money Times are for information purposes only and derived from sources that are deemed to
be reliable but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Money Times or the analyst/writer does not accept any lia bility for the use of
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A Time Communications Publication 21


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A Time Communications Publication 22

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