Eastern Mediterranean to the Black Sea

and Eurasian Stability

Dr. Antonia Colibasanu – senior geopolitical analyst at
Geopolitical Futures
 Turcia trebuie sa coopereze cu statele riverane Marii Negre. Turcia se acomodeaza (in
special in Caucaz – nu impartaseste aceleasi interese cu Rusia.)
 Maneuvering = ZEE + areas of influence.
 Turkey has an interest in keeping stabile and playing a role in being a hub,
intersection zone.
 For Turkish public, it is important Turkey shows power in Mediterranean.
 The same idea that Russia used, Turkey is using in the Mediterranean Sea (an agreement
can’t be broken twice) – Russian approach – once international law is violated on a
certain subject, other countries could see an opportunity in breaking the rule in the same
way. (precedents)
 2019 - USA has switched the role from consumer to producer of energy resources.
 For Syria, Russia needs to be involved in Syria. Russia is in trouble – doesn’t need to be
engaged in Syria.
 A Russia in trouble means a dangerous Russia.
 EAST MED Pipeline – European support. Turkish Stream (alternative to EAST MED)
– Russian support. ---competitive projects.
 The deeper the sea is, the more difficult will be to build a pipeline.
 Intermarium needs economic and social dimensions.