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0 t T
L , is
The value of a long T -maturity forward contract at time t, ft,T
L
ft,T = (Ft,T − K )e −r (T −t )
S , is
The value of a short T -maturity forward contract at time t, ft,T
S
ft,T = (K − Ft,T )e −r (T −t )
t T
Cash Flows: 0 ST − K
t T
−r (T −t )
Total Cash Flow: (Ft,T − K )e Ft,T − K
L +0 = fL .
At time t, the portfolio value is ft,T t,T
At time t,
L
ft,T = (Ft,T − K )e −r (T −t )
S !
Similar arguments can be used to value a short forward, ft,T
= (St e r (T −t ) − K )e −r (T −t )
= St e r (T −t ) e −r (T −t ) − Ke −r (T −t )
= St − Ke −r (T −t )
Time T : FT ,T = ST e r (T −T ) = ST
fT ,T = ST − K
Time T : fT ,T = K − ST
1st way
6
Ft,T = St e r (T −t ) = 25e 0.1× 12 = 26.28
6
ft,T = (Ft,T − K )e −r (T −t ) = (26.28 − 24)e (−0.1 12 ) = $2.17
2nd way
6
ft,T = St − Ke −r (T −t ) = 25 − 24e (−0.1 12 ) = $2.17
Six months later, the price of the stock is $45 and the risk-free interest
rate is still 10%.
What are the forward (futures) price and the value of the forward
(futures) contract at t = 0 and t = 6 months?
0 6 months 1 year
K = $44.21
f0,T = 0
Forward CF 0 0 fT ,T = −$2.21
(ST − K = 42 − 44.21)
0 6 months 1 year
K = $44.21 K 0 = $47.31
f0,T = 0 ft,T = $2.95
(47.31 − 44.21)e −0.1x0.5
Forward CF 0 0 −$2.21
OR
k The interest rate is a known function of time.
Fair value accounting requires all companies to take both CVA and
DVA into consideration. In contrast, Basel regulations for financial
institutions requires CVA, but specifically exclude DVA.
When financial instruments are not traded in active market, fair value
accounting involves subjective estimations based on valuation models.
Fair value as “the price that would be received to sell an asset or paid
to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market
participants at the measurement date”
Exit price instead of entry price
Orderly, not forced liquidation or distressed sale
Valuation should use observable input (e.g. market data independent from
firm), and minimum use of assumptions and subjectivity.
Bid price for long position and ask price for short position.
Most recent traded price may be use if there is no substantial change
in market condition.
Similar to SFAS 157 exclude forced transaction, involuntary
liquidation or distress sale.
If price is not available, the preferred valuation techniques must be
one that commonly used by market participants.
Valuation should make maximum use of market input and least firm
specific input. Model must be “calibrated” and “backtested”.
(Konstantinidi & Poon, AMBS) Financial Derivatives October 22, 2020 25 / 55
Using Forward & Futures in Hedging
Disadvantages.
k Shareholders can make their own hedging decisions and are usually well
diversified.
k It may increase risk to hedge when competitors do not.
k Explaining a situation where there is a loss on the hedge can be
difficult.
Advantages.
k Companies should focus on the main business they are in and take
steps to minimize risks arising from interest rates, exchange rates, and
other market variables
k Bankruptcy is costly!
CONTANGO BACKWARDATION
Price% Price%
Futures%price% Spot%price%
Spot%price% Futures%price%
Time% Time%
t% T% t% T%
Given that:
Ft,T = St e r (T −t )
where r is usually positive, we usually observe that Ft,T > St .
Ft,T = St e (r −y )(T −t ) .
t1 t2 T
Asset mismatch.
k Choose the contract whose futures price is most highly correlated with
the asset price.
k Cross hedge.
k Basis risk exists even when t2 = T .
When the yen are received at the end of July, the company closes out
its position.
50
No of contracts = =4
12.5
k The company enters September contract NOW and closes out the
futures position at the end of July.
Since the September contract is to close out early in July, there will
be basis risk.
k Basis risk arises due to the gap between futures price and spot price at
the end of July.
cent per U
Futures price March 1 0.7800 (Ft1 ,T )
July 31 0.7250 (Ft2 ,T )
Spot price July 31 0.7200 (St2 )
Sells U in the spot market for 0.72 & receives: 0.72 × 50 million
(a) Explain how Mr Jaffa could lock in his orange juice costs with a May
frozen orange juice futures contract trading in January at $0.95/lb
(contract size of 15,000 lbs). The futures contract is settled by cash and
without physical delivery.
(b) Show Mr Jaffa’s net cost, at the futures expiration date (assume 1st
May), from closing the futures position, in e.g. Chicago Mercantile
Exchange, and buying 60,000 pounds of frozen orange juice on the spot
(commodity) market at the possible prices of $0.90/lb, $0.95/lb and
$1.00/lb.
(c) If the futures contract expires on 30th June instead of 1st May and the
futures price on 1st May, when Mr Jaffa was closing out the contract, was
$0.90/lb (Ft2 ,T ), calculate the basis if the spot price on 1st May was
$0.92/lb (St2 ) and the amount of cash Mr Jaffa has to pay to fulfill his
contractual agreement to supply orange juice on the Grand National Day.
Quantity risk: The contract size does not match quantity required
resulting in an underhedged or overhedged position.
Timing risk: It is the same as that shown in part (c) of the “Jaffa
Orange” example.
k If the futures contract has to be closed out early, the hedger will always
face a basis risk.
Sometimes the expiration date of the hedge is later than the delivery
dates of all the futures contracts in the market that can be used.
In April 2011, a company realizes that it will have 100,000 barrels of crude
oil to sell in June 2012 and decides to hedge its risk with a hedge ratio of
1.0. The current spot price is $19 (S0 ). Although crude oil futures are
traded on the New York Merchantile Exchange with maturities up to six
years, only the first six delivery months have sufficient liquidity to meet the
company’s needs. The company, therefore, short 100 October 2011
contracts. In September 2011, it rolls the hedge forward into the March
2012 contract. In February 2012, it rolls the hedge forward again into the
July 2012 contract.
4 5 6 7 8 9* 10 11 12 1 2* 3 4 5 6∗ 7
April June
Rolling of the contract is typically done at least a few days before the
contract expiry instead of at maturity.
k Derivative contract prices at maturity are often erratic and subject to
market manipulation.