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Lecture10 - Cost of Capital
Lecture10 - Cost of Capital
• Estimating 𝑔𝑔:
Method I. Use historical growth rates
Method II. Use analysts’ forecasts
‒ Forecasts could vary depending on different resources, and we may need to collect multiple
forecast and take the average of them
‒ Advantages:
Easy to understand and use
‒ Disadvantages:
The model is only applicable to dividend-paying firms with steady growth
The estimation is very sensitive to the estimated growth rate 𝑔𝑔
The model does not explicitly consider risk (risk is implicitly incorporated in 𝑃𝑃0 )
• Example:
A US firm has an equity beta of 1.2. The current YTM on the 3-month treasury bill is
1.5% and the market risk premium is 15%. What is the cost of equity?
‒ Advantages:
The model explicitly adjust for risk
It is applicable to companies without steady dividend growth
(it could be applied for any companies as long as the equity beta could be estimated)
‒ Disadvantages:
Both the beta and the market risk premium have to be estimated
• These two items vary over time
• We need to use the historical returns to predict the future
20×2
10% 1 − 1/ 1 + 𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌/2 1
𝑃𝑃𝐷𝐷 = $1,000 × × + $1,000 × 20×2
= $919.77
2 𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌/2 𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌/2
• WACC:
𝐸𝐸 𝐷𝐷
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊 = × 𝑅𝑅𝐸𝐸 + × 𝑅𝑅𝐷𝐷 × 1 − 𝑇𝑇𝐶𝐶
𝑉𝑉 𝑉𝑉
= 67.57% × 14% + 32.43% × 8.4% × 1 − 40% = 11.09%
20% + 22.4%
𝑅𝑅𝐸𝐸 = = 21.2%
2
𝑅𝑅𝐷𝐷𝐷 = 5.26%
• Value of long-term private debt (𝐷𝐷2 ):
$1𝑏𝑏
𝐷𝐷2 = 10×2
= $0.595 𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏
1 + 𝑅𝑅𝐷𝐷𝐷 /2
• Cost of long-term public debt (𝑅𝑅𝐷𝐷2 ):
𝑅𝑅𝐷𝐷2 = 𝑅𝑅𝐷𝐷𝐷 = 5.26%
• Value of short-term debt (𝐷𝐷3 ):
𝐷𝐷3 = $0.5 𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏
• Cost of short-term debt (𝑅𝑅𝐷𝐷3 ):
𝑅𝑅𝐷𝐷𝐷 = 4%
𝑅𝑅𝐷𝐷 = 4.96%
𝐸𝐸 𝑃𝑃 𝐷𝐷
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊 = × 𝑅𝑅𝐸𝐸 + × 𝑅𝑅𝑃𝑃 + × 𝑅𝑅𝐷𝐷 × 1 − 𝑇𝑇𝐶𝐶
𝑉𝑉 𝑉𝑉 𝑉𝑉
$5 $1 $2.075
= × 21.2% + × 15% + × 4.96% × 1 − 40%
$8.075 $8.075 $8.075
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊 = 16.26%
1
1− 10
1 + 𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊
𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 = −$50 + $10 × = −2.13 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊
𝐸𝐸 𝐷𝐷
𝑓𝑓𝐴𝐴 = × 𝑓𝑓𝐸𝐸 + × 𝑓𝑓𝐷𝐷
𝑉𝑉 𝑉𝑉
𝐸𝐸
: equity weight
𝑉𝑉
𝑓𝑓𝐸𝐸 : flotation cost of issuing new stock
𝐷𝐷
: debt weight
𝑉𝑉
𝑅𝑅𝐷𝐷 : flotation cost of issuing bond
𝐸𝐸 𝐷𝐷
‒ NOTICE: and should be the target weights, not the actual weights
𝑉𝑉 𝑉𝑉
‒ Project evaluation:
𝐸𝐸 𝐷𝐷
𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊 = × 𝑅𝑅𝐸𝐸 + × 𝑅𝑅𝐷𝐷 × 1 − 𝑇𝑇𝐶𝐶 = 0.5 × 20% + 0.5 × 10% × 1 − 0.34
𝑉𝑉 𝑉𝑉
= 13.3%
$72,000
𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 = −$500,000 + = $41,353
0.133